CONFIRMED: A CME IS COMING: Yesterday's X2.2-class solar flare (described below) produced a CME, and it has an Earth-directed component. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded a lopsided halo emerging from the blast site:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17feb23/x2_cme.gif

The flank of the CME will probably strike Earth on Feb. 20th. Geomagnetic storms ranging from category G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) are possible after the CME arrives. NOAA analysts are currently modeling the CME's internal structure and trajectory. Refinements to this forecast may be made, depending on their results.

Solar wind
speed: 450.7 km/sec
density: 11.70 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0835 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M4 1458 UT Feb20
24-hr: M4 1458 UT Feb20
Updated: Today at: 2040 UT

WEAK IMPACT: A CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 20th at 10:39 UTC. The impact was weak and did not cause a geomagnetic storm. If this was the CME from Friday's X2.2 flare (the jury's still out) then NOAA's forecast of a weak glancing blow was correct, and the geomagnetic storm watch can be cancelled. https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20feb23/weakimpact.jpg

Jupiter and Venus in Zodiacal Lights
Taken by Ruslan Merzlyakov on February 13, 2023 @ Lanjaron, Spain
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=192866

Solar wind
speed: 401.2 km/sec
density: 4.44 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0207 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M4 1123 UT Feb21
24-hr: M4 1123 UT Feb21
Updated: Today at: 1410 UT

Aurora
Taken by Matt Melnyk on February 20, 2023 @ Calgary, Alberta, Canada

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=192982

Solar wind
speed: 469.4 km/sec
density: 8.52 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0222 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 1350 UT Feb22
24-hr: M5 2017 UT Feb21
Updated: Today at: 1425 UT

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot AR3234 is crackling with solar flares including multiple M4- and M5-class events on Feb. 21st. This interest-compressed movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows yesterday's extreme ultraviolet flashes:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/21feb23/interestcompressed_strip_opt.gif

Pulses of radiation from AR3234 are ionizing the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a rolling series of shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. While this activity continues, ham radio operators may notice intermittent loss of signal and other unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~20 MHz.

Solar wind
speed: 540.3 km/sec
density: 1.84 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0200 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 0901 UT Feb23
24-hr: M1 0614 UT Feb23
Updated: Today at: 1405 UT

NO CMES ARE HEADING OUR WAY: For the past three days, the sun has emitted a non-stop fusillade of solar flares. Yet no CMEs are heading our way. Why not? The source of the explosions, sunspot AR3234, was not facing Earth. This is about to change, however, as the the sun's rotation turns the sunspot more directly toward our planet. https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/22feb23/mflares.jpg

Solar wind
speed: 500.4 km/sec
density: 8.23 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0310 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1309 UT Feb24
24-hr: C8 1819 UT Feb23
Updated: Today at: 1515 UT

A DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Active sunspot AR3234 is not only turning toward Earth, but also growing rapidly. This 48-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows AR3234 quadrupling in size as it comes around the solar limb:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/23feb23/evolution.gif

AR3234 has a 'delta-class' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Feb. 24th.

INCOMING SOLAR WIND STREAM: A stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: Feb. 26-27. The gaseous material is flowing from an equatorial hole in the sun's atmosphere, and it could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm when it arrives. https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/24feb23/ch.jpg