X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR3182 is living up to the hype. Fully visible for less than 24 hours, the active sunspot has already produced an intense X1.2-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the eruption on Jan. 6th just before 0100 UT:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/06jan23/x1p2_strip_opt.gif

The explosion inflated a dome of glowing-hot plasma, which hovered above the blast site for more than an hour. This may have contained the debris. So far no coronal mass ejection (CME) has been observed emerging from the area.

A pulse of X-rays and extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout across South Pacific:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/05jan23/blackoutmap_strip.jpg

Ham radio operators, mariners and aviators may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after the flare.

A DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Newly-emerging sunspot AR3182 poses a threat for strong solar flares. On Jan. 3rd it produced a probable X-class eruption on the farside of the sun, followed on Jan. 6th by a definite X-flare on the Earthside. Given the size and apparent complexity of this large active region, there's a good chance the explosions will continue in the days ahead.

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/06jan23/definiteX.jpg

Solar wind
speed: 378.9 km/sec
density: 2.18 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0136 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 0901 UT Jan09
24-hr: M2 0901 UT Jan09
Updated: Today at: 1340 UT

WHERE THE ACTION IS: A new, hyperactive sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb: AR3184. This 10-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured at least half-a-dozen eruptions, most of them M-class:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/08jan23/limbactivity_strip_opt.gif

None of the debris plumes will hit Earth; the sunspot is not facing our planet. It will turn in our direction later this week. Meanwhile, amateur astronomers with solar telescopes should point their optics at the southeastern limb. It's where the action is.

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an X-flare today to 30%. Earth-facing sunspot AR3182 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that poses a threat for strong explosions. Shortwave radio blackouts and Earth-directed CMEs are likely this week.

Solar wind
speed: 389.0 km/sec
density: 5.50 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0257 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1108 UT Jan10
24-hr: X1 1850 UT Jan09
Updated: Today at: 1500 UT

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday in Kentucky, amateur astronomer Richard Schrantz was scanning the sun with his solar telescope when, almost finished, he decided to take one last look at sunspot AR3184. "What luck!" he says. "There was a big X1.9 solar flare in progress."

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/09jan23/Richard-N-Schrantz-Solar-Flare-1-9-23_1673304425_strip.jpg

"The flare is listed as happening at 18:50 UT, and my image is just a few minutes later at 18:55 UT," says Schrantz. "To capture the eruption I used a 127mm refracting telescope with a Daystar Quark Chromosphere filter."

NO CME THIS TIME: Yesterday's X1.9-class solar flare did not hurl a CME toward Earth. Although it was intense, the blast was too brief to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Next time may be different. There are now three large sunspots (AR3181, 82 and 84) with unstable 'delta-class' magnetic fields capable of strong explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 35% chance of X-flares on Jan. 10th.

Solar wind
speed: 410.7 km/sec
density: 5.99 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0226 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 0833 UT Jan11
24-hr: X1 2247 UT Jan10
Updated: Today at: 1430 UT

ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The sun produced another X-flare on Jan. 10th, this time from new sunspot AR3186. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the X1-class explosion hurling a plume of debris into space:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/10jan23/x1_red.gif

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the South Pacific: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed fadeouts and other unusual propagation effects at frequencies below ~30 MHz.

This is the 3rd X-flare in a week, and each flare has come from a different sunspot. It's not just a single active region; the *whole sun* is becoming more active. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% chance of another X-flare on Jan. 11th.

FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: Two more sunspots are coming. Helioseismic echoes reveal a pair of large farside active regions just behind the sun's eastern limb. They will rotate into view later this week, adding their dark cores to an already very-spotted solar disk.

Solar wind
speed: 401.7 km/sec
density: 7.02 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0741 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1913 UT Jan12
24-hr: M1 0650 UT Jan12
Updated: Today at: 1945 UT

TWO YEARS OF SUNSPOTS: On almost every clear day in Santiago, Chile, Patricio Leon takes a picture of the sun. Lately, he's noticed a lot more sunspots. To illustrate the change, he stacked hundreds of images from 2021 and 2022:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12jan23/Patricio-Leon-Manchas-2021-22.anot_1673471080_strip.jpg

"This composite includes 110 solar images captured in 2021 and 159 in 2022," says Leon. "Nearly all days with major sunspots are present. Although this is not a scientific controlled study, variables such as cloudy days and holiday interruptions tend to even out in the large number of observations. The disparity between the two years agrees well with developing Solar Cycle 25."

EVERY SUNSPOT WANTS TO FLARE: It seems like every spot on the sun wants to flare. In the past week alone, three different sunspots have produced X-flares, and even more are crackling with M-class flares. With unstable sunspots scattered across the face of the sun, the chance of a geoeffective flare today is greater than 70%.