INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY: Yesterday, fast-growing sunspot AR3165 unleashed a remarkable series of M-class solar flares. All day long, no more than a few hours went by without a significant explosion:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/15dec22/fusillade.jpg

During the fusillade, the sunspot strobed Earth with more than 10 pulses of extreme ultraviolet and X-radiation. The resulting ionization of Earth's upper atmosphere caused a series of shortwave radio blackouts rolling across all longitudes. Aviators and mariners may have noticed poor reception at frequencies below 15 MHz.

Many of the flares hurled CMEs into space. Preliminary coronagraph data from SOHO suggest that all of them will miss Earth, passing upstream of our planet. Maybe next time? Another large sunspot, AR3163, has an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class flares--and it is directly facing Earth.

Solar wind
speed: 328.8 km/sec
density: 2.08 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0802 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 1440 UT Dec16
24-hr: M5 2240 UT Dec15
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2005 UT

THE EXPLOSIONS CONTINUE: Sunspot AR3165 is crackling with M-class solar flares, more than 18 in the last two days. Pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation are ionizing the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing frequent shortwave radio blackouts. The blackout events are regional, like this one, but they are rolling around the globe as Earth turns beneath the flaring sun. https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/16dec22/fusillade.jpg

Solar wind
speed: 298.1 km/sec
density: 1.97 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0637 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 1736 UT Dec17
24-hr: C9 1911 UT Dec16
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1840 UT

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Following two days of non-stop flaring, active sunspot AR3165 is quieting. It could be gaining strength for a bigger flare. NOAA forecasters say there is a 50% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Dec. 17th.

Solar wind
speed: 367.4 km/sec
density: 0.38 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0357 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1406 UT Dec20
24-hr: M1 1406 UT Dec20
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1600 UT

CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS THIS WEEK: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms on Dec. 21st when a side-by-side pair of solar wind streams are expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a double hole in the sun's atmosphere.

Solar wind
speed: 435.3 km/sec
density: 9.88 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0211 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1338 UT Dec22
24-hr: C6 2236 UT Dec21
Updated: Today at: 1415 UT

ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low and it is likely to remain so through Christmas. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun have relatively stable magnetic fields that pose a threat for, at most, minor C-class flares. The situation could change next week when one or more farside sunspots come over the horizon.

Solar wind
speed: 441.8 km/sec
density: 5.36 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0242 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 1152 UT Jan02
24-hr: C9 0621 UT Jan02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1445 UT

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Jan. 4th when a slow-moving CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. It was hurled in our direction by an M3.7-class solar flare (movie) in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR3176 on Dec. 30th.

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT 7 YEAR HIGH: 2022 ended with the highest monthly sunspot number in 7 years. This plot from NOAA shows the ascending progression of Solar Cycle 25:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/02jan23/sunspotcycle_strip.png

For the 35th month in a row, Solar Cycle 25 is outperforming the official forecast. Conclusion: Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than expected--possibly both. The next few years should have plenty of sunspots, solar flares, and CMEs. Happy New Year!

Solar wind
speed: 386.0 km/sec
density: 10.36 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0840 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C8 1845 UT Jan04
24-hr: C8 1845 UT Jan04
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2045 UT

CME IMPACT JOLTS EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: As predicted, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 4th (0254 UT). The impact jolted magnetometers around the world with the Canberra station in Australia registering a sudden impulse of 38 nT. It also ignited a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Pilot Matt Melnyk photographed the light show from 30,000 ft above Alberta, Canada:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/04jan23/redeye_strip.jpg

Solar wind
speed: 350.6 km/sec
density: 7.46 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0409 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1015 UT Jan05
24-hr: C8 1845 UT Jan04
Updated: Today at: 1615 UT