POSSIBLE CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH A CME: NOAA forecasters say that a slow-moving CME might pass close to Earth today (Oct. 12th). It left the sun five days ago. The near miss could shove solar wind plasma onto Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle.

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Departing sunspot AR3112 poses a continued threat for solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Oct. 13th.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY: A CME may have just passed Earth, not hitting, but nevertheless unsettling our planet's magnetic field. Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft show an unexpected upsurge in dense magnetized plasma around UT midnight on Oct. 13-14. This event has triggered some bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

ALL QUIET: Despite yesterday's rapid growth of a sunspot in the sun's southern hemisphere, solar activity remains low. All of the sunspots on the solar disk have simple magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters say the chance of an X-flare today is no more than 1%. https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/17oct22/rapidgrowth.gif