LONG DURATION SOLAR FLARE: Underachieving sunspot AR3112 finally exploded on Oct. 10th (0047 UT), producing an M1-class solar flare:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/10oct22/m1_teal_strip.gif

Radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing a shortwave radio blackout over the South Pacific: map. Aviators, mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed fading and other unusual effects at frequncies below 15 MHz.

The explosion lasted more than 3 hours, plenty of time to lift a CME out of the sun's atmosphere. Confirmation awaits fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs. Stay tuned.

POSSIBLE CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH A CME: NOAA forecasters say that a slow-moving CME might pass close to Earth today (Oct. 12th). It left the sun five days ago. The near miss could shove solar wind plasma onto Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle.

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: Departing sunspot AR3112 poses a continued threat for solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Oct. 13th.