☀️SOLAR CYCLE 2️⃣5️⃣ UPDATE: New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that Solar Cycle 25 is racing ahead of the official forecast--and the gap is growing.

See the complete labeled plot or play with an interactive version from NOAA

Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years.

The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1-CLASS): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 6th and 7th when at least one CME is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field.

There might even be two strikes. A pair of CMEs left the sun over the weekend, one propelled by a solar flare (M4-class), the other by an exploding magnetic filament. Neither CME is heading directly for Earth, but they are both capable of glancing blows beginning midday on April 6th.

Solar wind
speed: 408.8 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0700 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 0420 UT Apr06
24-hr: C1 2241 UT Apr05
Updated: Today at: 0705 UT

Daily Sun: 06 Apr 22

There are 5 numbered sunspot groups on the sun today. All have relatively stable magnetic fields; strong solar flares are unlikely. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 3.1 nT north
Updated: Today at 0700 UT

Coronal Holes: 06 Apr 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on April 10-11. Credit: SDO/AIA

Solar wind
speed: 421.8 km/sec
density: 7.4 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0920 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0737 UT Apr07
24-hr: C3 1027 UT Apr06
Updated: Today at: 0925 UT

Daily Sun: 07 Apr 22

There are 4 numbered sunspot groups on the sun today. All have relatively stable magnetic fields; strong solar flares are unlikely. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: -1.9 nT south
Updated: Today at 0920 UT

Coronal Holes: 07 Apr 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on April 10-11. Credit: SDO/AIA

WAITING FOR THE CME: April 6th passed quietly, contrary to predictions of a CME strike and geomagnetic storm. However, there is some confidence that the CME is still coming. NOAA forecasters expect a glancing blow on April 7th, possibly sparking minor G1-class geomagnetic storms.

Solar wind
speed: 385.5 km/sec
density: 8.6 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0556 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 0040 UT Apr08
24-hr: B6 0737 UT Apr07
Updated: Today at: 0600 UT

Daily Sun: 08 Apr 22

Strong flares are unlikely today. All of these sunspots have stable, quiet magnetic fields. Credit: SDO/HMI

Current Auroral Oval:

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.4 nT
Bz: 3.8 nT north
Updated: Today at 0555 UT

Coronal Holes: 08 Apr 22

Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on April 11. Credit: SDO/AIA

OFF-TARGET CMEs MISS EARTH: A CME missed Earth on April 6th. Another CME missed Earth on April 7th. Now a third CME is coming--hurled into space yesterday by an erupting filament of magnetism on the sun. It is expected to miss, too. Ripples from the near miss might cause minor geomagnetic unrest on April 11st.

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/07apr22/filamenteruption.gif