It took Polymarket 4 years to reach its first billion in volume. The next 19, in only 14 months

A simple rebrand of a crypto primitive can change everything:

→ Prediction markets turned speculation into participation, where prediction is the new type of investment

OpenSea is back, and it already crossed $2.5B in trading volume this month

However, it's not from NFTs, >90% of it comes from fungible tokens

The former #1 NFT marketplace is now a non-custodial, 22-chain order router

What happened last Friday?

Trump announced 100% tarrifs. Market started selling. Longs were liquidated. Market makers pulled liquidity. Everyone got liquidated.

Full article: https://x.com/SimplicityWeb3/status/1981730964016394261

🚀 Another client, another successful launch.

Folks Finance went live on Nov 6th at $1, now sitting at $5+.

They say token launches don’t work in 2025, but with the right strategy and a team committed to building, it’s still very possible to have a successful launch.

We audited the tokenomics, modelled the economy, and the launch strategy, proving once again that preparation pays off.

Here’s what the Folks Finance team had to say about working with us:

“The Simplicity team helped us auditing our token economy policies to align better with users and token utilities. The modelling was very useful in forecasting key metrics like buy & sell pressure so to plan a healthy and sustainable token model with our incentives.”

📩 Want results like this?

Message @Daniel_Simplicity to talk about your next launch.

📈 Crypto M&A is back and accelerating fast.

Deal counts jumped from 27 in Q3 2023 to 96 in Q3 2025, with $10.4B in disclosed value this year. Both Web3 and traditional firms are buying their way into the next phase of the industry.

Web3 is consolidating

Crypto-native firms are using M&A to strengthen their stacks.

▪️Phantom made four Solana acquisitions to turn its wallet into a full consumer suite.
▪️WonderFi, Ripple, and Chainalysis are acquiring infrastructure, licenses, and payment rails to scale vertically.

Web2 is entering

Traditional companies are buying exposure instead of building it.

▪️Stripe acquired Bridge for $1.1B to power stablecoin payments.
▪️Robinhood bought Bitstamp and WonderFi to expand into exchange and staking.
▪️Naver, South Korea’s largest search engine, acquired Dunamu (Upbit’s parent) to enter crypto directly.

We teamed up with Acquire.Fi to explore how these trends are reshaping crypto’s next growth phase.

🔗 Read the full report here:
https://docsend.com/view/fyxpwwyewirk6kww

Network School Mentorship Announcement 🚀

We’re excited to share that our Co-Founder, Daniel Malinovski, has been invited to mentor and host a Tokenomics Design Workshop at the Network School Accelerator on November 19th.

The Network School, an initiative led by Balaji aims to serve as a physical "node" for his vision of a Network State, a vision we share at Simplicity Group.

Daniel will be working directly with accelerator participants to cover:

- How to structure sustainable token models
- How to avoid the most common pitfalls we see in early-stage projects
- How to balance incentives, emissions, and long-term economic health
- How to think about modelling, policy, and real usage

We’re looking forward to supporting the teams selected by Network School and contributing to the next generation of high-impact Web3 founders.

📍 Happening November 19th, hosted at Network School.

Our latest piece dives into one of the fastest-emerging trends in crypto: Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

DATs are public companies that hold crypto like BTC, ETH, or SOL on their balance sheets, and actively deploy it through staking, lending, and leverage to grow NAV per share.

Think of them as the active, yield-generating counterpart to ETFs, combining equity upside with crypto performance.

With ETF inflows validating demand, new regulatory clarity, and on-chain yield turning treasuries into productive capital, DATs are quickly becoming the bridge between traditional markets and digital assets.

Read the full article here:
https://www.simplicitygroup.xyz/blog/the-rise-of-dats

What an incredible night at Stablecoin Soirée in Singapore 🇸🇬✨

Honored to host industry leaders and innovators, and a huge thank-you to Foundation Ventures for co-hosting with us. Massive appreciation to our sponsors AcquireFi and MAADs for making this possible.

We sat down with:

• John, COO of @GalaxyHQ discussing institutional adoption and stablecoin market maturity

• Adrian Flitz, VP at @21Shares on global ETF flow trends & product innovation

•Evan Auyang, President of @AnimocaBrands on stablecoins and Web3 gaming/economy integration

• Harrison, Co-Founder of @AcquireFi on venture trends and real-world asset tokenisation

The room held $5B+ in AUM, multiple deals closed on the spot, and the energy was unreal.

Singapore showed up and the stablecoin ecosystem is just getting started. ⚡️

More events coming soon. Stay tuned.

Canton: The Institutional Network.

With Canton's launch last week, we decided to cover it again.

Canton is quickly becoming the most significant institutional blockchain in the market, with over 6 trillion dollars in tokenized assets, rising daily activity, and a validator set that has grown from 24 to more than 550.

The article breaks down how Canton’s burn mint equilibrium, conversion rate mechanism, and long term minting curve create a stable economic system that evolves with network usage.

It also highlights the explosive growth in DAUs, transaction volume, and app rewards as the ecosystem scales.

Read the full article here:
https://www.simplicitygroup.xyz/blog/canton-the-institutional-blockchain

Last week, our Co-Founder Daniel Malinovski had the pleasure of hosting a private masterclass on "How To Build Solid Tokenomics" exclusively for the @DWFLabs portfolio.

The turnout was incredible, with over 50 founders signing up and 30+ teams tuning in live. Daniel took a deep dive into the mechanics of a successful economy, covering:
🔹 Core tokenomics principles
🔹 A live walkthrough of token model design
🔹 Critical mistakes that cause launches to fail

A huge thank you to the DWF Labs team for having us and trusting Simplicity Group to share our expertise with your builders. Always a pleasure supporting the next wave of Web3 innovation!

Current AAVE debacle summarised well from start to finish here: https://x.com/i/status/2003409615661273224

And here's a more clear explanation of the main disagreement: DAO wants to keep v3 (grown by DAO) and V4 (developed by Labs), whilst Labs wants to move to v4: https://x.com/i/status/2003519950632456566

Trust Wallet hacked. Don't import seed phrases. Keep up with the news for updates.

First things first, wishing everyone an amazing New Year from the Simplicity Team.

2025 was a turbulent ride for the industry and the economy, but we hope you managed to recharge and are ready for the year ahead.

After going dark for a month to cook behind the scenes, we’re back and ready to take over.

We're back to posting more content, more research and memes, as well as a multitude of changes behind the scenes that we'll be sharing.

Best Wishes,
Simplicity Team

Anti-Mercenary Tokenomics: Converting Vagrants into Users.

Our latest article addresses the "Vagrant" problem - mercenary capital that rents liquidity for high APY and exits the moment rewards dry up.

The piece breaks down how to design an economy that filters out passive rent-seekers using mechanisms like KPI-based unlocks, Proof of Participation, and dynamic incentives seen in protocols like DIMO and Helium.

Read the full article here: https://www.simplicitygroup.xyz/blog/anti-mercenary-tokenomics

Whats Happening At Simplicity?

We’ve redefined our model to focus exclusively on deep, boutique engagements where we can ensure our clients truly thrive. See below for the latest updates on our strategy as well as our work with Good Games, Releaf Financial, and a Nasdaq listed client 👀.

Macro Monday Is Back

Our Macro Mondays series was a key pillar of our early growth, and the market needs it now more than ever. Too much of crypto runs on speculation and hopium; we are bringing this series back to provide the signal amidst the noise.

Moving forward, this will be a bi-weekly staple on Mondays. To kick things off (a few days late), we’ve put together a comprehensive outlook for the year ahead.

Here is our 2026 Market Overview.

The narrative for 2026 is defined by what J.P. Morgan calls "multidimensional polarisation." While the global economy remains resilient, it is being reshaped by uneven monetary policy, the relentless expansion of AI, and widening divides between sectors and regions.

The risk of a global recession has faded according to analysts, but we’re not so sure. Growth is projected to be unevenly distributed with Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.8%, beating consensus. Moody’s sees a "steady but subdued" 2.5%.

🇺🇸 The United States: Resilient & Normalising:

The US remains the global engine, though banks disagree on the speed of the car. Goldman Sachs is bullish (2.6% growth) citing tax cuts and easing financial conditions. J.P. Morgan and Moody’s are more cautious (1.8%–2.0%), seeing a cooling labor market. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for:

1. Will AI continue to be macroeconomic driver? J.P. Morgan notes that the "AI-driven supercycle is fueling record capex," spreading from tech into utilities and logistics. AI-related capital outlays are expected to rise another 33% in 2026 following a massive surge in 2025.

2. While GDP looks good, the job market is cooling. Moody’s describes a market characterised by "stagnant hiring and slow job growth". J.P. Morgan warns that weak labor demand is eroding purchasing power, assigning a 35% probability to a recession in 2026.

3. Inflation remains sticky, hovering in the upper-2% range due to tariff pass-throughs and stabilized wage growth. Consequently, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its easing cycle, with markets eyeing a target rate cut to around 3–3.25%.

🇪🇺 The Eurozone: A Modest Rebound:

Europe is set for a cautious recovery, with growth acceleration projects at 1.3%–1.4% as falling inflation boosts consumer wallets. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for this year:

1. A major shift in 2026 is the impact of government spending. Germany is expected to benefit from sharp increases in federal spending on infrastructure and military defense, via the "ReArm Europe" initiative.

2. The export sector remains the weak link. New U.S. tariffs on steel and autos are disrupting supply chains, and European exporters face intense competition from China.

3. With inflation largely normalizing, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to have concluded most of its easing, holding rates steady or cutting slightly to support investment.

🇨🇳China: Manufacturing Power vs. Domestic Drag

China is a tale of two economies: massive manufacturing strength weighed down by internal weakness. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.5%–4.8%. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for this year:

1. Manufacturing prowess and control over critical supply chains (like rare earths) provide major economic leverage.

2. The government is pushing to consolidate non-strategic sectors plagued by overcapacity (like solar panels and cement). This structural reform is intended to rebalance the economy, even if it moderates headline growth.

3. Real estate remains the primary weight on the economy. Construction and property starts are down significantly, a drag estimated to subtract around 1.5 percentage points from growth in 2026.

🌏 Rest of the World: Shifting Chains & Rising Stars
Emerging Markets (EMs) are poised to outpace advanced economies, with Moody's projecting 4.0% growth for the G-20 EMs. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye out for this year:

1. In a major divergence from the rest of the world, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates in 2026 as wage growth takes hold, moving against the global easing trend.