✔️Tp hit💥 🤑😠

🌐 The dollar has shown signs of stabilising, but has struggled to stay bid on Bessent’s ruling out JPY intervention and a slightly hawkish Fed. The risks of another major leg lower in USD remain elevated, even if our bias is for a short-term recovery, given the overall supporting macro and rates picture.

🇺🇸 The dollar took a breather yesterday after the early‑week collapse, but there are no clear signs of a mood shift yet. A slightly hawkish tone by the Fed yesterday had, however, a very limited effect on the greenback. While Steven Miran and Chris Waller voted for a cut (not surprising), the FOMC removed the line “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”, confirming a more upbeat view on the economy. Chair Powell said the Fed would take its time to assess new data, reinforcing the market's view of no cuts in March and April.

The modest USD reaction to the Fed confirms there is very little influence of short-term rates on USD-crosses at the moment. Interestingly, even comments by Secretary Bessent, in which he ruled out US intervention in JPY, only gave the dollar short-lived support. DXY initially recovered 1% from the 95.55 low yesterday, but has softened again overnight, while gold and silver’s exceptional rally signal USD debasement trades remain very much central.

In other words, there are no signs that markets are ready to unwind dollar pessimism just yet. We may well be in the middle of a round of significant increase in USD hedging as the USD’s safe-haven value deteriorates, and it remains risky to pick a bottom when the moves are entirely detached from macro and rates. Our preference remains for a USD rebound, but at least strong US data is needed to start fuelling a USD recovery. Today, we’ll watch jobless claims, which have been lower than expected of late.

🇪🇺The debate about whether the euro's strength will affect ECB policy is intensifying. Last year, GC member De Guindos hinted that levels above 1.20 would be problematic, even though that was rebuked by Christine Lagarde on other occasions. The latest EUR/USD rally has already caused two members, Martin Kocher and Francois Villeroy, to express concerns that currency strength could prompt lower inflation and, in turn, looser policy.

For the moment, nothing is showing in ECB pricing. We suspect that markets will await any clarification in this sense by Lagarde at next Thursday’s meeting before buying into this narrative.

So, while we are inclined to think the dollar can start a recovery, we don’t see this threat of an ECB rate reaction as something that could significantly curb EUR/USD should the dollar instead enter another dive for now. The effectiveness of a potential ECB cut to weaken the euro is also rather doubtful, as the correlation between EUR/USD and short-term rate differentials has virtually disappeared. The past week of large USD losses has coincided with some widening of the USD short-term rate advantage over EUR to 115bp. That is the widest since mid-November when EUR/USD was trading around 1.16.

Another move past 1.20 today could trigger further upside volatility, with the 1.208 Monday high quite possibly being tested. We’ll instead need to see a significant break below 1.190 before we can conclude the tide is turning on the pair.

SL❌ we'll make up for it

Close in profit +70 pips 🤑💰

✔️Tp hit💥 🤑😠 Happy Friday of profit

✔️Tp hit💥 🤑😠

✔️Tp!!!💥 🤑😠

🗓Last Weekly Performance in Group:

✔️EURCAD LONG +25 pips
✔️EURCHF +28 pips
✔️GOLD LONG +578 pips
✔️NZDJPY BUY +33 pips
❌NZDJPY SHORT -77 pips
✔️AUDCAD LONG +26 pips
✔️NZDCAD LONG +40 pips
✔️GOLD SELL +280 pips
✔️USOIL LONG + 52 pips
❌USDJPY SELL -141 pips
✔️AUDUSD LONG +78 pips
✔️EURAUD SHORT +63 pips
❌GBPAUD SHORT -130 pips
❌CHFJPY LONG -130 pips
✔️CADCHF LONG +14 pips
✔️AUDNZD SHORT +19pips
✔️USDJPY LONG +141pips
✔️USOIL LONG +96pips


🔥Win: +1448pips
❌Loss: -478 pips
💵PROFIT: +970pips

✔️Tp hit💥 🤑😠