4. Redfin Active Listings와 MBA Mortgage Market Index/Purchasing Index
주택 가격 말고 주택 '거래 시장'이 굉장한 바닥임은 자명함. 그런 상황에서 금리 인하 기대감과 기존 주택 매물 및 거래량 증가로 인한 주택 가격의 Softening이 같이 일어난다고 믿는다면 이제는 '비싼 신규 주택'을 파는 기업뿐 아니라 '거래 시장'에서 수혜 입을 기업을 봐야 할 턴.
주택 가격 말고 주택 '거래 시장'이 굉장한 바닥임은 자명함. 그런 상황에서 금리 인하 기대감과 기존 주택 매물 및 거래량 증가로 인한 주택 가격의 Softening이 같이 일어난다고 믿는다면 이제는 '비싼 신규 주택'을 파는 기업뿐 아니라 '거래 시장'에서 수혜 입을 기업을 봐야 할 턴.
5. RDFN/RMAX LTM Revenue & Operating Income
* RDFN의 매출 급감은 House Flipping 사업 중단으로 인함
그 예시로 들 수 있는 기업이 이 두 개임. 이들은 계약 관계인 부동산 에이전트로부터 수수료를 수취하는게 주된 사업(단순히 생각하면 규모 큰 부동산 중개업자).
때문에 이들의 실적은 기존 주택 판매에 더 큰 영향을 받는다고 볼 수 있음. 최근 드라마틱하게 빠진 주택 매물이나 거래 건수 대비 비싸진 잡값 덕분에 수수료가 오른 효과로 매출 하락은 다소 상쇄되고 있음. 이런 상황에서 주택 거래량 상승 반전시 실적에 매우 긍정적일 것.
* RDFN의 매출 급감은 House Flipping 사업 중단으로 인함
그 예시로 들 수 있는 기업이 이 두 개임. 이들은 계약 관계인 부동산 에이전트로부터 수수료를 수취하는게 주된 사업(단순히 생각하면 규모 큰 부동산 중개업자).
때문에 이들의 실적은 기존 주택 판매에 더 큰 영향을 받는다고 볼 수 있음. 최근 드라마틱하게 빠진 주택 매물이나 거래 건수 대비 비싸진 잡값 덕분에 수수료가 오른 효과로 매출 하락은 다소 상쇄되고 있음. 이런 상황에서 주택 거래량 상승 반전시 실적에 매우 긍정적일 것.
참고 1. House Flipping -> 집을 매수하고 인테리어 등 개수를 거친 뒤 단기간 내에 매각해 시세 차익을 얻는 부동산 투자 전략
참고 2. 작성자는 언급된 종목 중 RMAX를 소량 보유중입니다.
참고 2. 작성자는 언급된 종목 중 RMAX를 소량 보유중입니다.
Forwarded from 메모장
#전력기기 #블로그
최근 산업 뉴스 관련해서 업데이트 글
최근 뉴스에 대해서 기존에 다뤘던 내용들을 같이 다뤘습니다.
https://blog.naver.com/aoqek2/223577855175
최근 산업 뉴스 관련해서 업데이트 글
최근 뉴스에 대해서 기존에 다뤘던 내용들을 같이 다뤘습니다.
https://blog.naver.com/aoqek2/223577855175
NAVER
240909 전력기기 업데이트 메모
뉴스 추가
마리오 드라기: "투자해라 EU"
-> Europe will need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP — a level not seen in more than 50 years — in order to transform it
-> “Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary answer,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, economist at Natixis, speaking to Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg TV.
-> The four largest emission-intensive industries in the EU, such as chemicals and metals, will require €500 billion over the next 15 years in order to decarbonize... transport investment will amount to €100 billion every year between 2031 and 2050.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/draghi-says-eu-in-danger-without-massive-spending-and-joint-debt
-> Europe will need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP — a level not seen in more than 50 years — in order to transform it
-> “Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary answer,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, economist at Natixis, speaking to Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta on Bloomberg TV.
-> The four largest emission-intensive industries in the EU, such as chemicals and metals, will require €500 billion over the next 15 years in order to decarbonize... transport investment will amount to €100 billion every year between 2031 and 2050.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/draghi-says-eu-in-danger-without-massive-spending-and-joint-debt
Bloomberg.com
Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds and Joint Debt
Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on the EU to invest as much as €800 billion ($884 billion) extra a year and commit to the regular issuance of common bonds to make the bloc more competitive with China and the US.
👍1
생물보안법 압도적 찬성
The bill, approved by a vote of 306 to 81, now goes to the Senate.
The legislation which passed the House Oversight Committee 40-1 in May, would affect five companies to start: BGI Group, BGI spinoffs MGI Tech and MGI’s US subsidiary Complete Genomics, WuXi AppTec, and WuXi Biologics.
The bill, approved by a vote of 306 to 81, now goes to the Senate.
The legislation which passed the House Oversight Committee 40-1 in May, would affect five companies to start: BGI Group, BGI spinoffs MGI Tech and MGI’s US subsidiary Complete Genomics, WuXi AppTec, and WuXi Biologics.
Bloomberg.com
US House Passes Bill to Blacklist Some China Biotech Firms
China hawks in the US House overcame a last-ditch lobbying effort and passed legislation Monday night that would blacklist Chinese biotech companies and their US subsidiaries.
Fake Songs Made Real Money
스포티파이 쌀먹이라...
참신하고 기똥차네요
-> SMITH created thousands of accounts on the Streaming Platforms (the “Bot Accounts”) that he could use to stream songs. He then used software to cause the Bot Accounts to continuously stream songs that he owned. At a certain point in the charged time period, SMITH estimated that he could use the Bot Accounts to generate approximately 661,440 streams per day, yielding annual royalties of $1,207,128.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-09/fake-songs-made-real-money
스포티파이 쌀먹이라...
참신하고 기똥차네요
-> SMITH created thousands of accounts on the Streaming Platforms (the “Bot Accounts”) that he could use to stream songs. He then used software to cause the Bot Accounts to continuously stream songs that he owned. At a certain point in the charged time period, SMITH estimated that he could use the Bot Accounts to generate approximately 661,440 streams per day, yielding annual royalties of $1,207,128.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-09-09/fake-songs-made-real-money
Bloomberg.com
Fake Songs Made Real Money
Zygotic Washstands, Polymarket derivatives, more Tesla/xAI conflicts and Esmark’s fake US Steel tender offer.
글로벌 인사이트: Standard Capital
생물보안법 압도적 찬성 The bill, approved by a vote of 306 to 81, now goes to the Senate. The legislation which passed the House Oversight Committee 40-1 in May, would affect five companies to start: BGI Group, BGI spinoffs MGI Tech and MGI’s US subsidiary Complete…
생물보안법 압도적 찬성
우시바이오 -5.8%
우시앱택 -10.0%
큰 폭 하락중
우시바이오 -5.8%
우시앱택 -10.0%
큰 폭 하락중
🔥3
Competitive dynamics in focus as US tries to stop Tapestry-Capri merger
태피스트리(TPR)의 카프리홀딩스(CPRI) 인수 방어 위한 FTC 소송 시작. 다음주 중반에 끝날 전망.
태피스트리 측이 57달러 불렀는데 지금 36달러로 하락, 8월 어닝콜에서 인수 의사 여전히 있음을 표명, 작년 말 카프리 인수 위해 발행한 채권 상환 안 한 것도 그 증거.
FTC측 논리는 보급형 명품 점유율 높아져서 중산층의 편익이 침해된다는 것인데, 이미 TPR-CPRI 합산 점유율보다 외국계 기업 점유율이 더 높음.
-> FTC의 논리가 빈약하기 때문에 TPR-CPRI 승소 가능성이 높음. 차익거래 기회로 소소하게 사 볼 만 함.
태피스트리(TPR)의 카프리홀딩스(CPRI) 인수 방어 위한 FTC 소송 시작. 다음주 중반에 끝날 전망.
태피스트리 측이 57달러 불렀는데 지금 36달러로 하락, 8월 어닝콜에서 인수 의사 여전히 있음을 표명, 작년 말 카프리 인수 위해 발행한 채권 상환 안 한 것도 그 증거.
FTC측 논리는 보급형 명품 점유율 높아져서 중산층의 편익이 침해된다는 것인데, 이미 TPR-CPRI 합산 점유율보다 외국계 기업 점유율이 더 높음.
-> FTC의 논리가 빈약하기 때문에 TPR-CPRI 승소 가능성이 높음. 차익거래 기회로 소소하게 사 볼 만 함.
Reuters
Competitive dynamics in focus as US tries to stop Tapestry-Capri merger
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission urged a federal judge in New York to block Tapestry's $8.5 billion merger with rival handbag maker Capri Holdings at a trial on Monday, arguing it will eliminate fierce head-to-head competition in the market for "accessible…
글로벌 인사이트: Standard Capital
마리오 드라기: "투자해라 EU" -> Europe will need to boost investment by about 5 percentage points of the bloc’s GDP — a level not seen in more than 50 years — in order to transform it -> “Europeans need to understand that defense is not an answer, it’s just a temporary…
DE: Joint debt issuance? 그거 내 돈으로 한다는 소리잖아
Finance Minister Christian Lindner retorted that such an approach won’t solve the region’s structural problems.
“I am very skeptical about Mr. Draghi’s approach to debt,” the German politician told N-TV in one of a series of swift reactions. “That can be summarized briefly: Germany should pay for others. That can’t be a master plan.”
Draghi’s Vision for EU Renewal Hits Wall of German Opposition
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/draghi-s-vision-for-eu-renewal-hits-wall-of-german-opposition
Finance Minister Christian Lindner retorted that such an approach won’t solve the region’s structural problems.
“I am very skeptical about Mr. Draghi’s approach to debt,” the German politician told N-TV in one of a series of swift reactions. “That can be summarized briefly: Germany should pay for others. That can’t be a master plan.”
Draghi’s Vision for EU Renewal Hits Wall of German Opposition
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-09/draghi-s-vision-for-eu-renewal-hits-wall-of-german-opposition
Bloomberg.com
Draghi’s Call for Joint EU Bonds Hits Wall of German Opposition
Joint debt just isn’t on Germany’s agenda — irrespective of Mario Draghi’s warning that it’s the only way to make the European Union more competitive with China and the US.
(지난소식)
미 수학과 대학생 Claude AI 이용 4주만에 집에서 핵융합로 제작
* 사실 플라즈마 발생기 정도긴 합니다만
https://haywaa.com/article/math-student-builds-fusion-reactor-at-home-with-help-from-claude-ai-and-dollar2000
미 수학과 대학생 Claude AI 이용 4주만에 집에서 핵융합로 제작
* 사실 플라즈마 발생기 정도긴 합니다만
https://haywaa.com/article/math-student-builds-fusion-reactor-at-home-with-help-from-claude-ai-and-dollar2000
Haywaa
Math student builds fusion reactor at home with help from Claude AI and $2,000
A math student built a fusion reactor at home with $2,000 and help from Claude AI over four weeks, achieving plasma but not full fusion.
VC Deals
Rapidus, a Japan-based chip maker, is seeking to raise ¥100 billion (about $696 million) from investors including Toyota Motor, Sony, SoftBank and others, Bloomberg reported.
Boston-based Superluminal Medicines, a startup using generative technology for drug discovery and development, raised a $120 million Series A led by RA Capital Management.
SafetyCulture, a startup developing a workplace safety management platform, raised an £85 million round led by Airtree Ventures.
Abu Dhabi-based fintech startup FlapKap raised $34 million in a pre-Series A led by BECO Capital.
Chai Discovery, a biotech startup using AI for drug discovery, raised a $30 million round from Thrive Capital and OpenAI.
UK mortgage platform Twenty7tec raised £16.5 million from BGF.
PE Deals
NYSE-listed website design platform developer Squarespace is in talks to be acquired by PE firm Permira in a $7.2 billion deal.
TPG is in talks to buy second-hand clothing marketplace Vinted at a €5 billion valuation, the Financial Times reported.
GeBBS Healthcare Solutions, a company developing software for healthcare providers, will be acquired by EQT for over $850 million, Reuters reported.
Permira completed its acquisition of fraud detection company BioCatch at a $1.3 billion valuation
HPS Investment Partners and Accel are planning to increase their stakes in the holding company of the Aston Martin F1 team, giving it a valuation between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, Sky News reported.
LGT Capital Partners invested in Exponent-backed H&MV Engineering, a specialist in high-voltage electrical engineering based in Ireland. The deal values the business at €750 million.
CVC Capital Partners is in talks to invest in The Hundred. a 100-ball cricket tournament involving teams in major cities across England and Wales, The Guardian reported. If it goes ahead, the deal would be the first PE deal of its kind in cricket.
Verity IQ and Campus Ivy, companies creating software solutions catering to students and educational institutions, have received a strategic growth investment from PSG.
Exits & IPOs
ShareFile, which specializes in encrypted file sharing and storage, has agreed to be acquired by Nasdaq-listed Progress Software from current owner Cloud Software Group for about $875 million.
Oman-based OQ Exploration & Production, the exploration unit of state energy firm OQ, is looking to raise around $2 billion in an IPO.
Gulf Capital exited Kuiper Australia, a subsidiary of its portfolio company Kuiper Group, in a carve-out deal. The company is engaged in the outsourcing of labor in the offshore energy sector.
StandardAero, a Carlyle Group-owned company providing aircraft maintenance services, has filed for an IPO.
Fundraising
PE firm Five Point Energy, based in Houston, closed its latest fund on $1.4 billion. The firm targets sustainable infrastructure companies.
Alpha Partners, a VC firm focused on investments that allow VCs to retain ownership in startups they've invested in, raised $153 million for its third fund.
Rapidus, a Japan-based chip maker, is seeking to raise ¥100 billion (about $696 million) from investors including Toyota Motor, Sony, SoftBank and others, Bloomberg reported.
Boston-based Superluminal Medicines, a startup using generative technology for drug discovery and development, raised a $120 million Series A led by RA Capital Management.
SafetyCulture, a startup developing a workplace safety management platform, raised an £85 million round led by Airtree Ventures.
Abu Dhabi-based fintech startup FlapKap raised $34 million in a pre-Series A led by BECO Capital.
Chai Discovery, a biotech startup using AI for drug discovery, raised a $30 million round from Thrive Capital and OpenAI.
UK mortgage platform Twenty7tec raised £16.5 million from BGF.
PE Deals
NYSE-listed website design platform developer Squarespace is in talks to be acquired by PE firm Permira in a $7.2 billion deal.
TPG is in talks to buy second-hand clothing marketplace Vinted at a €5 billion valuation, the Financial Times reported.
GeBBS Healthcare Solutions, a company developing software for healthcare providers, will be acquired by EQT for over $850 million, Reuters reported.
Permira completed its acquisition of fraud detection company BioCatch at a $1.3 billion valuation
HPS Investment Partners and Accel are planning to increase their stakes in the holding company of the Aston Martin F1 team, giving it a valuation between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, Sky News reported.
LGT Capital Partners invested in Exponent-backed H&MV Engineering, a specialist in high-voltage electrical engineering based in Ireland. The deal values the business at €750 million.
CVC Capital Partners is in talks to invest in The Hundred. a 100-ball cricket tournament involving teams in major cities across England and Wales, The Guardian reported. If it goes ahead, the deal would be the first PE deal of its kind in cricket.
Verity IQ and Campus Ivy, companies creating software solutions catering to students and educational institutions, have received a strategic growth investment from PSG.
Exits & IPOs
ShareFile, which specializes in encrypted file sharing and storage, has agreed to be acquired by Nasdaq-listed Progress Software from current owner Cloud Software Group for about $875 million.
Oman-based OQ Exploration & Production, the exploration unit of state energy firm OQ, is looking to raise around $2 billion in an IPO.
Gulf Capital exited Kuiper Australia, a subsidiary of its portfolio company Kuiper Group, in a carve-out deal. The company is engaged in the outsourcing of labor in the offshore energy sector.
StandardAero, a Carlyle Group-owned company providing aircraft maintenance services, has filed for an IPO.
Fundraising
PE firm Five Point Energy, based in Houston, closed its latest fund on $1.4 billion. The firm targets sustainable infrastructure companies.
Alpha Partners, a VC firm focused on investments that allow VCs to retain ownership in startups they've invested in, raised $153 million for its third fund.
미시간 대학교의 토론 책임자이자 2016년 도널드 트럼프의 토론에 관한 "토론하는 도널드"의 공동 저자인 애런 콜은 트럼프가 토론이 끝난 후 스핀룸으로 간 것은 후보로서는 매우 이례적인 행동으로 자신이 잘하지 못했다고 생각한다는 것을 보여준다고 말했습니다.
"그런 일이 발생할 때마다 내러티브를 바꾸고 각본을 바꿔야 한다는 신호입니다."라고 콜은 말했습니다. "그가 더 많은 토론을 요구해도 놀라지 않을 것입니다."
콜은 해리스가 토론에서 승리했다고 생각하며 "조 바이든과는 다른 후보이자 토론자라는 것을 확실히 보여줬다"고 말했습니다.
마크 니켓
블룸버그 미국 경제 및 실물 경제 기자
"그런 일이 발생할 때마다 내러티브를 바꾸고 각본을 바꿔야 한다는 신호입니다."라고 콜은 말했습니다. "그가 더 많은 토론을 요구해도 놀라지 않을 것입니다."
콜은 해리스가 토론에서 승리했다고 생각하며 "조 바이든과는 다른 후보이자 토론자라는 것을 확실히 보여줬다"고 말했습니다.
마크 니켓
블룸버그 미국 경제 및 실물 경제 기자
트럼프는 본인이 현실 현상을 직시하고 있고 깊은 물 속에서 일어나는 일을 인지하고 있다고 착각하는 사람들을 타겟하는 사람임. 이들은 자유무역에서 그간 미국이 얻었던 이점은 무시하고 대중국 무역수지 적자 등 일부 손해만 부각시키면서 70년대부터 좌초하기 시작한 제조업의 옛 영광의 부활에 목을 매달고 있음.
해리스는 현실을 애써 무시하거나(혹은 모르는) 유토피아에나 나올 낙원 생각하는 무한긍정 머리 꽃밭이 타겟임. 해리스 정권 인사들은 본인들이 뭘 해야 하는지 깨닫는데만 최소 임기의 절반이 필요할 것.
이런 상황에서는 누가 되어야 증시 전반에 좋다는 논쟁은 무의미하고 누가 되면 무엇이 좋을지 중점으로 따져야 한다고 생각.
해리스가 주장하는 미실현이익 과세는 말 할 필요도 없는 재앙적인 아이디어고, 트럼프가 주장하는 온쇼어링 역시 그에 따르는 비용 상승으로 인해 오히려 미국 기업들의 경쟁력이 훼손되며 파괴적인 결과를 낳을 가능성도 상당히 있다고 봄.
해리스는 현실을 애써 무시하거나(혹은 모르는) 유토피아에나 나올 낙원 생각하는 무한긍정 머리 꽃밭이 타겟임. 해리스 정권 인사들은 본인들이 뭘 해야 하는지 깨닫는데만 최소 임기의 절반이 필요할 것.
이런 상황에서는 누가 되어야 증시 전반에 좋다는 논쟁은 무의미하고 누가 되면 무엇이 좋을지 중점으로 따져야 한다고 생각.
해리스가 주장하는 미실현이익 과세는 말 할 필요도 없는 재앙적인 아이디어고, 트럼프가 주장하는 온쇼어링 역시 그에 따르는 비용 상승으로 인해 오히려 미국 기업들의 경쟁력이 훼손되며 파괴적인 결과를 낳을 가능성도 상당히 있다고 봄.
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