On August 26, 1991, months before the dissolution of the USSR, in a published statement authorized by Yeltsin, his press secretary Pavel Voshchanov noted that Russia’s recognition of the independence of the Soviet republics would be contingent on their maintaining “allied relations” with Moscow, and that Russia reserves the right to “revise borders” with any republic that abandons these close ties.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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When Russia agreed to dissolve the USSR, it made the republics’ independence conditional on alignment with Moscow’s interests, recalls Ukrainian defense entrepreneur Denys Shtilierman.

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Medvedev: Russia should no longer tolerate the aspirations of its neighbors to join the EU, which could quickly transform into an even more hostile military alliance than NATO.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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Russia must better understand Ukraine; recognize that Europe is no longer a vassal of the U.S.; and avoid becoming anyone’s junior partner, says new President of Russian International Affairs Council Dmitri Trenin.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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“Our patience has been exhausted.” Russia announces sustained air campaign against Kiev for the first time in the 12-year conflict, warning foreign nationals to immediately leave the Ukrainian capital and urging residents to stay away from military and administrative infrastructure.

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In a phone call, Lavrov informs Rubio of Russia’s decision to carry out a sustained campaign against targets in Kiev and suggests U.S. diplomats and citizens be evacuated from the Ukrainian capital.

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“We’ve been waiting for this for over four years” — Russian Orthodox tycoon Konstantin Malofeev reacts to Moscow’s announced plans to launch a sustained air campaign on command posts and decision-making centers in Kiev.

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“All the Europeans stayed, America left” — EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas says the U.S. has evacuated its embassy from Kiev ahead of Russia’s announced bombing campaign.

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Medvedev, responding to the Europeans’ decision not to evacuate Kiev: “Well, apparently they’ve got diplomats to spare and need to trim the headcount.”

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The U.S. embassy in Kiev denies evacuation reports, says there are no changes to its operations.

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Russia’s standing as a great power hinges on achieving victory in Ukraine, Lavrov tells gathering of foreign policy and security experts, some of whom are growing pessimistic about Moscow’s ability to win on the battlefield.

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Mearsheimer: Russia has lost its power of deterrence and, to reestablish it, will have to strike Europe.

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The EU and NATO are rapidly preparing for a large-scale war with Russia, says Putin’s foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin.

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The production lines of Zelensky’s war machine are outside Ukraine, concentrated across Europe, says Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu.

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Based on his recent statements, President Putin appears to believe that Ukraine is on the verge of military defeat.

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Multiple quantitative models of attritional warfare predict inevitable collapse of Ukrainian defenses, with one forecasting a tipping point in July–September 2026.

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Economics and geography will sooner or later force Europe to resume purchasing Russian energy, says new Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar.

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Medvedev: Citizens of EU states will no longer be able to sleep peacefully, especially in places where UAV production for Ukraine is taking place.

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AfD Saxony party leader Jörg Urban says Russia is needed as a guarantor of peace and prosperity in Europe.

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Putin: By deliberately targeting children, the Kiev regime has chosen to escalate the conflict to a new level. So be it.

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Bloomberg: Senior Finance Ministry and Central Bank officials have privately warned Putin that Russia’s war economy is unsustainable.

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