Today’s action starts early. At 20:10, we will watch a matchup between a strong favorite — Spurs — and the underdog Milwaukee. Spurs are currently 2nd in the Western Conference and have already secured a playoff spot. The Bucks sit 11th in the Eastern Conference and are realistically out of contention.

The home team has struggled mainly due to roster issues. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been missing for a long time (first absent, then briefly returned, and now out again), along with Kevin Porter. Additionally, Portis, Turner, and Kuzma are questionable, which is a major blow for Milwaukee. At the moment, the team is being carried by Rollins, who is doing a decent job. This significantly weakens their offense, but even more so their defense.

This is clearly visible in recent games, where they conceded 130 points to Portland, 129 to the Clippers, 128 to Utah (even without key scorers), and 123 to Cleveland. Only against Phoenix did they keep the score relatively low (losing 108:105).

Spurs, on the other hand, are expected to be at full strength and should comfortably win this matchup. They have won their last 7 games and are also strong offensively, averaging around 126 points over their last 10 matches. In their last five games, they scored 123, 136, 134, 101, and 132 points, showing consistent productivity.

Their most recent head-to-head ended 119:101 in favor of San Antonio. At that time, Spurs were slightly weakened without Vassell, while the Bucks still had defensive support from Antetokounmpo.

Both teams in this matchup have one thing in common: they are very strong, but their rosters are weakened. Detroit will play today without Cunningham, Harris, and most likely also Duren. That’s a major setback since these are the team’s top three players. As for Toronto, Quickley is out, while Ingram and Murray-Boyles are questionable. Toronto will therefore rely heavily on Barnes.

Toronto’s results, however, have not been bad. Their last win was truly incredible — they defeated Orlando 139–87. In their last five games, they also beat New Orleans and Utah, although those results are not nearly as impressive as the win against Orlando.

Detroit has also surprisingly posted decent results. They defeated New Orleans, beat Minnesota (who were also missing their best player), and narrowly defeated the Lakers. Overall, both teams appear to be in fairly similar form.

However, Toronto’s roster is less weakened. They also won the last head-to-head meeting, and that game was played on the court of Cunningham, Duren, and Harris. Today’s game will be quite different, but not in Detroit’s favor.

In this game, I’m not confident enough to bet on the match result. Golden State have recently been slipping down the standings due to injuries to Curry, Butler, and Moody. They are now in 10th place, which still secures a play-in spot. Cleveland, on the other hand, is 4th in the other conference and only a few games away from securing a direct playoff spot.

I don’t want to bet on the result mainly because Curry is still listed as questionable after a long absence. Even if he plays, his minutes will likely be limited, which makes the outcome difficult to predict. However, the Warriors’ results have not been that bad. They have won three of their last five games (even though some were against underdogs). Most recently, they scored 113 points against the Spurs, which also happens to be their average scoring output over the last ten games.

Cleveland is steadily moving toward a playoff spot, having won seven of their last ten games. In those games, the total points line of 228.5 was exceeded seven times. They have averaged 123 points scored per game, with their games averaging 242 total points.

The current trend in their games and overall offensive productivity clearly points toward the over.

In this matchup, I don’t really understand why the odds on the Spurs are above 1.70. They seem like much bigger favorites to me. San Antonio is currently 2nd in the Western Conference, while the Clippers are 8th. Motivation should be quite similar for both teams, as they have already secured their playoff spots.

The visitors are in excellent form, which is proven by their 10-game winning streak. At the same time, it’s not just about form but also overall quality of play. Their lineup is in good shape and fully available. Their roster is also deeper than today’s opponent and they are not overly reliant on just one player.

As for the Clippers, their roster will be slightly weaker than usual. As always, Kawhi Leonard will likely carry the team, averaging over 28 points per game. Spurs, however, also have a star player — Victor Wembanyama. Even though LA has won four of their last five games (five of their last ten overall), the quality of their opponents was significantly lower. They also lost twice to teams like New Orleans and even to Sacramento during that stretch.

In head-to-head matchups, the Spurs also have the edge. They played twice this year and won both games. The point differences were close, but that can mainly be attributed to strong performances from the Clippers — which still wasn’t enough to win.

Houston is 5th in the Western Conference while Golden State is 10th. The Warriors built a cushion earlier in the season that still keeps them in playoff position, but since January they have been without Curry and Butler due to knee injuries. Steph is currently listed as questionable, so there is a chance he could return after a long absence. However, he has been questionable for several games already and has not played in any of them. I assume San Francisco is saving him for the upcoming playoffs — so either he won’t play, or he will have limited minutes. In addition, Moody is also missing, so Podziemski has been carrying much of the load.

As for Houston, their roster and form both look good. They have won five games in a row and even managed to beat the Knicks by 17 points. Today they will want to extend the streak to six games (which is something we would like to see as well). The home team clearly has worse form compared to Houston. Their recent games show that they lost against stronger teams and struggled to score against weaker ones. On top of that, all of their wins were very close.

Head-to-head games between these teams have also mostly been close, and they don’t really indicate any clear historical or current advantage for either side.

Today I chose a slightly more aggressive odds option, but it has strong logic behind it. Alternatively, you can go for 2 bets - Spurs win and Oklahoma with handicap. In the first game we are backing San Antonio against Oklahoma, currently the best team in the NBA. With only two losses in their last 15 games and 2nd place in the Western Conference, their quality speaks for itself. Portland doesn’t have terrible results, but they have played weaker teams and are simply inferior compared to the Spurs.

The odds on the Spurs are high mainly because of the uncertainty surrounding Wembanyama. However, just a few days ago they showed the depth of their roster when they beat Golden State, who even had Curry available. Portland also has several absences — Grant, Sharpe, and Krejčí. I believe the Spurs can handle this game even if Wembanyama doesn’t play.

In the second game we are backing the best team in the NBA to win. Oklahoma has lost only one of their last 15 games — against Boston. They have been crushing opponents, often by large margins. The Clippers aren’t a bad team, but they simply can’t match Oklahoma. Their recent wins mostly came against weaker opponents.

Oklahoma has also won the last 7 head-to-head matchups, which shows long-term dominance. There are no significant absences, so the game should not be heavily affected by injuries.

Houston is 5th in the Western Conference while Golden State is 10th. The Warriors built a cushion earlier in the season that still keeps them in playoff position, but since January they have been without Curry and Butler due to knee injuries. Steph is currently listed as questionable, so there is a chance he could return after a long absence. However, he has been questionable for several games already and has not played in any of them. I assume San Francisco is saving him for the upcoming playoffs — so either he won’t play, or he will have limited minutes. In addition, Moody is also missing, so Podziemski has been carrying much of the load.

As for Houston, their roster and form both look good. They have won five games in a row and even managed to beat the Knicks by 17 points. Today they will want to extend the streak to six games (which is something we would like to see as well). The home team clearly has worse form compared to Houston. Their recent games show that they lost against stronger teams and struggled to score against weaker ones. On top of that, all of their wins were very close.

Head-to-head games between these teams have also mostly been close, and they don’t really indicate any clear historical or current advantage for either side.