Miami are currently the 8th team in the Eastern Conference, while Memphis are 11th in the West, meaning they are outside the playoff positions. At the same time, Memphis don’t have good prospects of fighting for the playoffs, as they are far behind 10th-placed Portland. Miami, on the other hand, are right on the heels of Philadelphia (who are struggling badly) and Orlando. Overtaking these two teams would mean a direct advance to the Round of 16 from 6th place.

Miami have won 3 of their last 5 games and look very strong offensively. Yesterday they demolished Atlanta by 31 points. Before that, they handled New Orleans and Washington, both by 31 points as well. The only surprising loss came against Utah, where Jackson and Markkanen carried the team.

Memphis, however, have significantly worse results. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games. Losses to Denver by 6 points and Golden State by 1 point may look decent on paper, but we need to remember that Denver played without Jokic and Golden State without Curry and Butler. In that light, those results aren’t nearly as solid.

Head-to-head games between these teams are often high-scoring. The most recent matchup, however, was won by Miami by an incredible 32 points. From these games, it’s clear that the home team can build a big lead against underdogs and maintain it.

The biggest reason for this pick, though, was the rosters. While Miami are coming in almost at full strength, the same cannot be said for Memphis. They will be missing Aldama, Coward, Caldwell-Pope, and many others. The three named players are all among the top 5 most productive players—top scorers, rebounders, assist leaders, and so on… I could keep going. That’s a massive blow for the Grizzlies, and I don’t believe such a weakened team can cope, especially against a team like Miami.

Houston Rockets return home, where they will host the Utah Jazz with the goal of getting back to winning ways in the NBA. They enter the game as the fourth seed in the Western Conference and hold a 17-game advantage over their opponent, who sits in 13th place.

The Rockets are coming back from a short two-game road trip on Eastern Conference courts, which also marked their restart after the All-Star break. Ime Udoka’s squad won in Charlotte but then narrowly lost to the Knicks 108–106. Besides that, they split games with the Clippers (1–1) and defeated a weakened Oklahoma team.

At the moment, they need a boost to maintain their position in the top four of the West. The Rockets, who won the first head-to-head matchup with the Jazz back in November, now have only a half-game cushion over the closest chasers for fourth place.

Utah do not share the same playoff concerns as Houston. Will Hardy’s team ranks among the weaker teams in the West, and with 39 losses they have the third-worst record in the conference. They trail the playoff cut line by 10 games and have lost 21 of 28 road games. Even though they managed to defeat the Rockets at home in their most recent meeting, they currently do not look like a team with a realistic chance to win.

Utah are made an even bigger underdog by absences — Markkanen (listed as questionable by some sources, ruled out by others), Nurkić, Jackson, and George are all missing. These are four of Utah’s most productive players. With such a severe depletion, it will be very difficult for Utah to compete against Houston.

Memphis Grizzlies host the struggling Sacramento Kings with the aim of returning to winning form in the NBA. They are currently 11th in the Western Conference and hold a lead of more than 10 wins over the Kings, who sit at the bottom of the Western standings.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 136–120 loss on the court of the Miami Heat, which was their second game since returning from the All-Star break. Tuomas Iisalo’s team had previously beaten the Utah Jazz at home, snapping a four-game losing streak. Unfortunately for the Kings, they are in even worse shape. Doug Christie’s squad has lost an unbelievable 16 straight games, which is currently the longest losing streak of the season.

You may therefore wonder why, in this seemingly “noisy and blind” matchup, I am choosing a positive handicap on Sacramento. The Kings typically do not lose by extremely large margins (against comparable teams). In most cases, they manage to cover at least a fair positive handicap (at odds around 1.90).

However, the most important factor for me is Memphis’ lineup. Aldama, Coward, Caldwell-Pope, and several others will be absent. These are some of the team’s most productive players. The Kings will also be without LaVine and Hunter, but I view the Grizzlies’ absences as more critical.

That said, I do not recommend going too heavy with the stake on this pick — this game carries a fair amount of lottery-like unpredictability.

Out-of-form teams, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors, meet in an evening game. The Grizzlies, who will host the matchup, are currently 11th in the Western Conference and trail their opponents, who sit eighth, by eight games.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 114–123 home loss to the Kings. Another analyst wrote: “Although they have struggled to win recently, it was still shocking to see them lose to a team that had previously lost 16 games in a row.” For me, however, it wasn’t that surprising. They are missing too many key players and their results reflect that. Tuomas Lisalo’s men have now lost their last two games and have managed just one win in their last seven outings.

The Warriors are in a similar situation, as they are also coming off a loss to New Orleans. Prior to that, however, they managed to defeat Denver (already without Jokic). In that game, Moody stepped up and carried the team, and he is expected to be on the floor again tonight. I am still placing some hope in Podziemski, who will also need to contribute.

At the top of a long injury list for the home side is Ja Morant, along with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Santi Aldama, Zach Edey, and Cedric Coward. The absences on Memphis’ side are simply too significant, and their game against Sacramento confirmed my expectations that they cannot be considered favorites even there.