Forwarded from alphafactorybot
Date: 2026-03-26 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
TAADualMom.png
175.8 KB
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
*** TAADualMom Update ***
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
Date: 2026-03-26 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
TAADualMom.png
175.9 KB
For me the most interesting thing last week was that earnings estimates not only held up despite the turmoil, but accelerated higher. The 52-week rate of change for the 12-month forward EPS estimate is now up to 19% despite the market being in risk-off mode. Earnings estimates often follow price, but not this time (so far at least).
The chart below compares market drawdowns against the year-over-year change in earnings estimates. As the S&P 500 is off 9%, earnings growth has accelerated to 19%. Comparable episodes were the start of the 2022 bear market (although back then estimates were still recovering from the pandemic), and the 2018 one-two punch of Volmaggedon in January (when inverse-VIX ETFs blew up) and the Powell rate tantrum later that year. Before that, we have 1999 when the internet bubble became more chaotic, and the 1994 Greenspan rate cycle. 🧵
The chart below compares market drawdowns against the year-over-year change in earnings estimates. As the S&P 500 is off 9%, earnings growth has accelerated to 19%. Comparable episodes were the start of the 2022 bear market (although back then estimates were still recovering from the pandemic), and the 2018 one-two punch of Volmaggedon in January (when inverse-VIX ETFs blew up) and the Powell rate tantrum later that year. Before that, we have 1999 when the internet bubble became more chaotic, and the 1994 Greenspan rate cycle. 🧵
What Percentage of Day Traders Fail In The Stock Market
If you want to be a day trader, you should look at what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market, which research indicates is between 80% and 99%.
Case Studies: What Percentage of Day Traders Fail In The Stock Market
While social media often portrays day trading as an easy path to wealth, the actual percentage of profitable day traders is remarkably low, typically ranging from only 1% to 20%.
Even among those who manage to stay profitable, only a tiny fraction earns a life-changing amount of wealth.
Case studies further highlight this difficulty; for example, a court case involving Tuco Trading revealed that 84% of active traders lost money, while a study of 1,600 traders in Brazil found that only 3% made money over a year.
In Taiwan, research spanning over a decade concluded that fewer than 1% of traders could predictably and reliably earn positive returns net of fees.
Why Is It so difficult?
The primary reasons for these high failure rates include overconfidence, market volatility, and the "minus-sum" nature of short-term trading.
Unlike long-term investors who benefit from the "tailwinds" of corporate growth, day traders must overcome transaction costs and slippage that quietly eat away at their edge.
To improve the odds of success, we suggest moving away from emotional trading and instead adopting quantitative strategies while focusing on surviving the initial learning curve.
Forget the social media glamour! Respect the statistical reality of what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market.
If you want to be a day trader, you should look at what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market, which research indicates is between 80% and 99%.
Case Studies: What Percentage of Day Traders Fail In The Stock Market
While social media often portrays day trading as an easy path to wealth, the actual percentage of profitable day traders is remarkably low, typically ranging from only 1% to 20%.
Even among those who manage to stay profitable, only a tiny fraction earns a life-changing amount of wealth.
Case studies further highlight this difficulty; for example, a court case involving Tuco Trading revealed that 84% of active traders lost money, while a study of 1,600 traders in Brazil found that only 3% made money over a year.
In Taiwan, research spanning over a decade concluded that fewer than 1% of traders could predictably and reliably earn positive returns net of fees.
Why Is It so difficult?
The primary reasons for these high failure rates include overconfidence, market volatility, and the "minus-sum" nature of short-term trading.
Unlike long-term investors who benefit from the "tailwinds" of corporate growth, day traders must overcome transaction costs and slippage that quietly eat away at their edge.
To improve the odds of success, we suggest moving away from emotional trading and instead adopting quantitative strategies while focusing on surviving the initial learning curve.
Forget the social media glamour! Respect the statistical reality of what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market.
X (formerly Twitter)
X
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
*** TAADualMom Update ***
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
Date: 2026-04-03 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-06 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-07 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-06 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-07 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
TAADualMom.png
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$SPX is sitting right back where it was the day before the bombs started dropping on Iran
Think about what's happened in between:
- A 5-week kinetic war involving the world's largest economy
- The Strait of Hormuz... through which ~20% of global oil flows... effectively shut and still not reopened
- Oil, gas, fertiliser, helium, chemicals... all disrupted simultaneously
- Missile and drone strikes on ~30% of the Gulf's petrochemical and oil infrastructure
- Iran's Supreme Leader killed, replaced by a successor publicly demanding "revenge"
- Crude still 35-40% above pre-war levels
- A two-week ceasefire so fragile that Israel was bombing Lebanon on day one of it
The equity market's verdict on all of that? Nothing to see here
Round-trip. As if none of it ever happened
What's going on here? Here's both sides as honestly as I can lay them out.
THE BULL CASE (and it isn't stupid):
Systematic flows are running the show. CTAs who were max short at the lows are being mechanically force-fed back in as realised vol collapses. Vol-target funds are re-leveraging. Dealer gamma flipped supportive above 6,800. Once that machine starts running, fundamentals become decoration
Consensus base case: the ceasefire holds, Hormuz gradually reopens, oil drifts back into the $80s, and the whole episode gets filed away as a transitory hit to Q2 margins. Not a regime change, a minor speed bump
Meanwhile the AI capex story keeps printing money. $AMZN up 5% today on Andy Jassy's letter pushing in-house silicon. Meta's new model launch. The whole Mag7 narrative humming along independent of anything happening in the Persian Gulf... and despite the odd data centre getting blown up along the way
Yardeni and the bull camp are out today telling clients the bottom is in and trimming recession odds back to 20%. They might be right
THE BEAR CASE (and it's the one keeping me awake):
Is anybody actually doing the earnings math?
A sustained $25-30/bbl crude premium is a tax on every transport, chemical, packaging, retail and consumer-discretionary P&L in the index. None of it is in the numbers yet. Not the margin contraction from rising input costs. Not the working capital getting eaten by tankers rerouting. Not the insurance and freight rates that have repriced violently
Today's data quietly screamed stagflation. Jobless claims jumped to 219k (highest in three months). February core PCE sticky at +0.4% m/m. Consumer sentiment still in the toilet
The market is paying ~22x forward earnings on a 2026 EPS number that hasn't been honestly marked since late February
Meanwhile, Goldman's commodities desk is openly modelling Brent averaging $100+ through 2026 if Hormuz stays jammed another month
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner sit down with Iran in Islamabad on Saturday. Iran's 10-point demand list (full Hormuz control, sanctions removal, enrichment rights) is functionally unacceptable to Washington
A two-week pause is not a resolution. It's an option that expires
The market has decided the geopolitical risk premium is zero. We'll soon know whether that's a decision that ages well.
Think about what's happened in between:
- A 5-week kinetic war involving the world's largest economy
- The Strait of Hormuz... through which ~20% of global oil flows... effectively shut and still not reopened
- Oil, gas, fertiliser, helium, chemicals... all disrupted simultaneously
- Missile and drone strikes on ~30% of the Gulf's petrochemical and oil infrastructure
- Iran's Supreme Leader killed, replaced by a successor publicly demanding "revenge"
- Crude still 35-40% above pre-war levels
- A two-week ceasefire so fragile that Israel was bombing Lebanon on day one of it
The equity market's verdict on all of that? Nothing to see here
Round-trip. As if none of it ever happened
What's going on here? Here's both sides as honestly as I can lay them out.
THE BULL CASE (and it isn't stupid):
Systematic flows are running the show. CTAs who were max short at the lows are being mechanically force-fed back in as realised vol collapses. Vol-target funds are re-leveraging. Dealer gamma flipped supportive above 6,800. Once that machine starts running, fundamentals become decoration
Consensus base case: the ceasefire holds, Hormuz gradually reopens, oil drifts back into the $80s, and the whole episode gets filed away as a transitory hit to Q2 margins. Not a regime change, a minor speed bump
Meanwhile the AI capex story keeps printing money. $AMZN up 5% today on Andy Jassy's letter pushing in-house silicon. Meta's new model launch. The whole Mag7 narrative humming along independent of anything happening in the Persian Gulf... and despite the odd data centre getting blown up along the way
Yardeni and the bull camp are out today telling clients the bottom is in and trimming recession odds back to 20%. They might be right
THE BEAR CASE (and it's the one keeping me awake):
Is anybody actually doing the earnings math?
A sustained $25-30/bbl crude premium is a tax on every transport, chemical, packaging, retail and consumer-discretionary P&L in the index. None of it is in the numbers yet. Not the margin contraction from rising input costs. Not the working capital getting eaten by tankers rerouting. Not the insurance and freight rates that have repriced violently
Today's data quietly screamed stagflation. Jobless claims jumped to 219k (highest in three months). February core PCE sticky at +0.4% m/m. Consumer sentiment still in the toilet
The market is paying ~22x forward earnings on a 2026 EPS number that hasn't been honestly marked since late February
Meanwhile, Goldman's commodities desk is openly modelling Brent averaging $100+ through 2026 if Hormuz stays jammed another month
Vance, Witkoff and Kushner sit down with Iran in Islamabad on Saturday. Iran's 10-point demand list (full Hormuz control, sanctions removal, enrichment rights) is functionally unacceptable to Washington
A two-week pause is not a resolution. It's an option that expires
The market has decided the geopolitical risk premium is zero. We'll soon know whether that's a decision that ages well.
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
*** TAADualMom Update ***
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
Date: 2026-04-07 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-09 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-10 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80
Date: 2026-04-10 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-09 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-10 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80
Date: 2026-04-10 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80
Forwarded from alphafactorybot
TAADualMom.png
175.7 KB