Date: 2026-03-24 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-25 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-26 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20

*** TAADualMom Update ***

Date: 2026-03-26 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20

*** TAADualMom Update ***

Date: 2026-03-26 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-27 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-30 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-03-31 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20

For me the most interesting thing last week was that earnings estimates not only held up despite the turmoil, but accelerated higher. The 52-week rate of change for the 12-month forward EPS estimate is now up to 19% despite the market being in risk-off mode. Earnings estimates often follow price, but not this time (so far at least).

The chart below compares market drawdowns against the year-over-year change in earnings estimates. As the S&P 500 is off 9%, earnings growth has accelerated to 19%. Comparable episodes were the start of the 2022 bear market (although back then estimates were still recovering from the pandemic), and the 2018 one-two punch of Volmaggedon in January (when inverse-VIX ETFs blew up) and the Powell rate tantrum later that year. Before that, we have 1999 when the internet bubble became more chaotic, and the 1994 Greenspan rate cycle. 🧵

What Percentage of Day Traders Fail In The Stock Market


If you want to be a day trader, you should look at what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market, which research indicates is between 80% and 99%.
Case Studies: What Percentage of Day Traders Fail In The Stock Market
While social media often portrays day trading as an easy path to wealth, the actual percentage of profitable day traders is remarkably low, typically ranging from only 1% to 20%.
Even among those who manage to stay profitable, only a tiny fraction earns a life-changing amount of wealth.
Case studies further highlight this difficulty; for example, a court case involving Tuco Trading revealed that 84% of active traders lost money, while a study of 1,600 traders in Brazil found that only 3% made money over a year.
In Taiwan, research spanning over a decade concluded that fewer than 1% of traders could predictably and reliably earn positive returns net of fees.
Why Is It so difficult?
The primary reasons for these high failure rates include overconfidence, market volatility, and the "minus-sum" nature of short-term trading.
Unlike long-term investors who benefit from the "tailwinds" of corporate growth, day traders must overcome transaction costs and slippage that quietly eat away at their edge.
To improve the odds of success, we suggest moving away from emotional trading and instead adopting quantitative strategies while focusing on surviving the initial learning curve.
Forget the social media glamour! Respect the statistical reality of what percentage of day traders fail in the stock market.

*** TAADualMom Update ***

Date: 2026-04-03 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-06 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-07 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20
Date: 2026-04-08 | Allocations: QQQ: 0.80, VINEX: 0.20