Date: 2026-02-02 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-03 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-04 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-05 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-05 | Allocations: None

*** MARKET STATS ***

Goldman: We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January, but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonality—the unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys.

We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.35% month-over-month in January, reflecting positive calendar effects.

The BLS's preliminary estimate of the benchmark payrolls revision indicated that cumulative payroll growth between April 2024 and March 2025 would be revised 911k lower We estimate that the final downward revision will likely be somewhat smaller—in the range of 750-900k—as job growth in the QCEW, which informs the revision, has been revised up since the BLS issued the preliminary estimate.

The BLS will also update the net birth-death forecasts in the post-benchmark period (April 2025-December 2025). A downward revision to the post-benchmark period appears likely, reflecting the continued slowdown in the job growth measured by the QCEW and weak private payroll growth measured by the establishment survey during post-benchmark period.

Starting with this month’s report, the birth-death model will incorporate current sample information each month...changes in employment at continuing establishments will provide additional information about current net job creation from firm births and deaths beyond what the current methodology based on lagged QCEW data already does. However, the methodological change could contribute to greater month-to-month volatility in payrolls readings, as the birth-death assumption will be impacted by the responses to the monthly survey.
#NFP

*** TAADualMom Update ***

Date: 2026-02-06 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-09 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-10 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-11 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-11 | Allocations: None

*** MARKET STATS ***

*** TAADualMom Update ***

Date: 2026-02-09 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-10 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-11 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-12 | Allocations: None
Date: 2026-02-13 | Allocations: VUSTX: 0.80, TLT: 0.20