RaghavsPicksSensexOutlook
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This is the free channel for Daily Market Outlook and Market Updates. For paid calls - t.me/RaghavsFnOCalls & t.me/RaghavsCashCalls. ​Raghav's Picks: Leveraging Knowledge and Understanding to Win in a Volatile World, since 18th May 2005 by @RNDhoot.
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The Sensex Outlook for the Day 25-11-2021

Though the markets corrected from yesterday’s highs and closed in the red, the near-term outlook remains unchanged for the indices.
Keeping a trailing-closing SL at 57200/17074/37032 – one can start rebuilding long positions in the indices as well as stocks for near-short term targets of 60019/17907/39158.
BANKNIFTY is showing more strength than the NIFTY, but its early days yet to take a long view on the BANKNIFTY – let the strength continue for a day or two, before we take aggressive long positions there.

25 Nov 21
Index Sensex Nifty
S2 57,958 17,301
S1 58,143 17,356
Previous Close 58,340.99 17,415.05
R1 58,449 17,447
R2 58,556 17,479
Fair Value 45,415 13,557



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*Date 25-Nov-21*
*S1 57635.07*
Z 57957.9
Low 58143.44
*_SENSEX 58340.99_*
X 58484.2
High 58968.12
Y 59193.8
*R1 59394.42*
*T1 59645.75*
*The Sensex Outlook for the Day 26-11-2021*


The current cues from our neighborhood, including our NRI cousin, the SGX-Nifty are DOWN as they come to terms with the newer COVID variants that keep popping up.

Talking solely about levels – we are in a 57718/17215 – 58986/17593 trading band - While I don’t expect our markets to close below the lower end of the band – the current rally lacks legs till we see a convincing close above ~58986/17593.
Conservative traders should stay from the markets still Monday or till 58986/17593, whichever comes later. Others can wait to see how the NIFTY levels play out before taking up fresh positions for the Day/Weekend.

BANKNIFTY can offer good opportunities for longs today.

*26 Nov 21*
*Index Sensex Nifty*
S2 58,567 17,467
S1 58,644 17,490
*Previous Close 58,795.09 17,536.25*
R1 58,902 17,567
R2 59,078 17,619
_Fair Value 45,505 13,571_



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*Date 26-Nov-21*
*S1 57864.26*
Z 58001.9
Low 58143.86
X 58613.5
*_SENSEX 58795.09_*
High 58901.58
Y 58901.6
*R1 59254.91*
*T1 59453.58*
*The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting 29-11-2021*

Black Fridays in the Markets are usually followed by Black Mondays.

While I will stick my neck out and say that this is not a downtrend but a correction from the recent highs and the uptrend towards ~62000/19000 remains intact –
HOWEVER, if the indices fail to stabilize at the current levels i.e., around ~57100/17000, then we could fall further towards ~55776/16630.

We are not even talking about BANKNIFTY till it crosses 36797 or reaches 35705, from the current levels of ~36000.

*29 Nov 21*
*Index Sensex Nifty*
S2 56,480 16,840
S1 56,994 16,993
*Previous Close 57,107.15 17,026.45*
R1 57,311 17,087
R2 57,452 17,129
_Fair Value 45,505 13,567_



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*Date 29-Nov-21*
*S3 55776.25*
*S2 56128.34*
*S1 56480.42*
Low 56993.89
*_SENSEX 57107.15_*
X 57451.9
Z 57760.4
High 58254.79
Y 58708.2
The Sensex Outlook for the Day 30-11-2021

Till the time, the levels of 57981/17269 are not taken out convincingly, expect the markets to consolidate in the 57090/17000 – 57627/17163 band.
While the downside looks limited, the upside may remain capped due to volatility / news flow regarding the virus and its strains.
The BANKNIFTY needs to cross 36307 and respect yesterday’s low of 35328 for any meaningful base formation.
Having a stock specific approach will be a good strategy for now.

30 Nov 21
Index Sensex Nifty
S2 57,090 17,001
S1 57,174 17,026
Previous Close 57,260.58 17,053.95
R1 57,627 17,161
R2 57,716 17,188
Fair Value 45,593 13,577



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*Date 30-Nov-21*
*S1 56190.42*
Low 56382.93
X 57090
Z 57173.6
*_SENSEX 57260.58_*
High 57626.51
Y 58261
*R1 58407.79*
*T1 58724.56*
*Date 1-Dec-21*
*S1 56168.68*
Z 56748.1
Low 56867.51
*_SENSEX 57064.87_*
X 57372.1
Y 58021.7
High 58183.77
*R1 58584*
*T1 58986.55*
*The Sensex Outlook for the Day 01-12-2021*

The uncertainty over the new and newer variants of the Corona Virus will keep the markets and volatility on a boil for now.

While I continue to stick my neck out and advise aggressive buying at all levels till the recent lows of 56383/16782/35328 hold – buying should be done only as per your risk appetite and holding capacity.

Having a stock specific approach will be a good strategy for now, especially for conservative traders.

*1 Dec 21*
*Index Sensex Nifty*
S2 56,748 16,889
S1 56,868 16,925
*Previous Close 57,064.87 16,983.20*
R1 57,370 17,074
R2 57,574 17,135
_Fair Value 45,541 13,554_



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*The Sensex Outlook for the Day 02-12-2021*

Above the levels of 57345/17066/36161, the bulls will have an upper hand over volatility.
The markets now need to close above 57939/17243/36675, for this rally from the recent lows to gather pace.
New variant or not, I continue to stick my neck out and advise aggressive buying at all levels till the recent lows of 56383/16782/35328 hold – however buying should be done only as per your risk appetite and holding capacity.

Having a stock specific approach will be a good strategy for now, especially for conservative traders.

*2 Dec 21*
*Index Sensex Nifty*
S2 57,347 17,067
S1 57,626 17,151
*Previous Close 57,684.79 17,166.90*
R1 57,847 17,216
R2 57,939 17,244
_Fair Value 45,426 13,520_



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*Date 2-Dec-21*
Z 56865.7
*S1 56876.82*
Low 57346.78
X 57626
*_SENSEX 57684.79_*
High 57846.45
Y 57885.6
*R1 58208.28*
*T1 58398.49*
The Sensex Outlook for the Day 03-12-2021

As mentioned yesterday, the markets respected the levels of 57345/17066/36161 and even closed above 57939/17243 (only BANKNIFTY did not close above 36675).
Going forward, expect the markets to trade higher only, with the BANKNIFTY catching up and even overtaking the NIFTY.

The levels of 57700/17175/35917 are the base camp for the bulls to reach 59388/17677/38223 from.

3 Dec 21
Index Sensex Nifty
S2 58,181 17,316
S1 58,219 17,327
Previous Close 58,461.29 17,401.65
R1 58,514 17,415
R2 58,709 17,473
Fair Value 45,518 13,547


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*Date 3-Dec-21*
Z 57298.2
Low 57680.41
Y 58181.4
X 58218.5
*_SENSEX 58461.29_*
High 58513.93
*R1 58904.79*
*R2 59146.46*
*T1 59388.13*