Asking questions in 2026 is like writing an essay back in school:


“Act as a Wall Street equity analyst. Do a deep dive on MicroStrategy ($MSTR) over the next 3–6 months.

Summarize the business model and how much of the equity value comes from Bitcoin vs the software business.

Pull the latest financials, Bitcoin holdings, debt profile, and any recent capital raises or convertible issues.

Analyze valuation vs both its BTC net asset value and software peers (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, premium/discount to BTC NAV).

Break down key strengths and weaknesses of the MSTR strategy (Bitcoin accumulation, leverage, dilution risk, governance, regulatory risk).

Build a 3‑month base case, bullish case, and bearish case for the stock with explicit assumptions for BTC price, equity risk sentiment, and funding conditions.

For each scenario, estimate a reasonable price range for MSTR, explain the drivers, and assign subjective probabilities.

Highlight the main risks that could invalidate each scenario and what indicators I should monitor (on‑chain BTC data, funding rates, options skew, short interest, macro).

Given that I have a high risk tolerance but a large part of my wealth is already in crypto‑linked trades, discuss position sizing, whether it makes sense to add MSTR exposure, and what role it should play in a portfolio (hedge, leveraged bet, diversifier, etc.).
Assume I’m an experienced retail trader comfortable with derivatives, and be detailed and data‑driven.”

updated prompt so it first checks live impactful events in the next 3day prior to giving results


————————————


Act as a professional crypto trading intelligence desk.
Create a DAILY CRYPTO TRADING INTELLIGENCE REPORT focused ONLY on short-term tradable insights (24h–7d horizon). Prioritize actionable signals over general news.
Structure the report EXACTLY as follows:

1️⃣ MARKET REGIME (Context First)
• BTC trend status: trend / range / distribution / capitulation
• BTC dominance change (24h & 7d)
• Total crypto market cap change
• Stablecoin inflows/outflows (risk-on or risk-off signal)
• Funding rates (BTC, ETH, majors)
• Open Interest change + interpretation
• Major liquidation clusters & key liquidity levels
Output: • Today’s Market Mode: • Trading Bias: Long dips / Short rips / Neutral • Risk Level (Low / Medium / High)

2️⃣ HIGH-IMPACT CATALYSTS (Next 24–72h ONLY) Mandatory Macro & Event Calendar Scan: Prior to drafting any section, cross-reference live sources (FOMC calendar, CME FedWatch Tool, Bloomberg economic calendar, etc.) for all imminent central-bank, macro, or regulatory events within the 24–72h horizon. If an event qualifies (FOMC meetings, rate decisions, Powell or other central bank speeches, CPI/PPI releases, or any item implying >5% volatility on BTC/ETH or total market cap), list it first in this section. For each include: • Asset (e.g., BTC, ETH, or broad market) • Event & exact timing • Expected volatility impact & risk-on/off implication • Historical reaction pattern (last 5 similar meetings where applicable)
List ONLY events likely to move price:
• Major exchange listings (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX)
• Perpetual futures listings
• Token unlocks (>1% circulating supply)
• ETF or institutional flows
• Regulatory or macro catalysts
• Airdrop snapshots or ecosystem launches
For each include: • Asset • Event • Timing • Expected volatility impact • Historical reaction pattern
Highlight: ⭐ Highest-probability tradable catalyst

3️⃣ SMART MONEY & FLOW SIGNALS Identify non-retail signals:
• Coins with unusual volume expansion
• Open Interest spikes
• Whale accumulation/distribution signals
• Large exchange inflows/outflows
• Sector/narrative rotation (AI, RWA, L2, memes, gaming, etc.)
Output: • Early rotation candidates • Overcrowded trades to avoid

4️⃣ MOMENTUM & MEAN REVERSION SCANNER From CoinGecko Top 300:
Show TOP signals (not just gainers):
Coin | Rank | Price | 24h % | Volume Δ | OI Δ | Signal Type
Signal logic:
• ↑ price + ↑ volume + ↑ OI → trend continuation
• ↑ price + ↓ OI → squeeze (possible fade)
• ↓ price + OI flush → bounce candidate
Double-check prices using Binance spot markets.

5️⃣ LIQUIDITY & MACRO DASHBOARD Assess macro conditions affecting crypto:
• Imminent FOMC / central-bank decisions (rate path, dot-plot, Powell tone) and projected impact on DXY, yields, and crypto liquidity
• Global M2 liquidity trend
• DXY direction
• US yields trend
• Equity market correlation (risk-on/off)
• ETF BTC/ETH flow direction (if available)
Output: • Macro Tailwind or Headwind Today • Liquidity Impact Score (Bullish / Neutral / Bearish)

6️⃣ SENTIMENT & POSITIONING ANALYSIS Interpret — not just report:
• Fear & Greed Index
• Funding extremes
• Retail vs whale positioning
• Liquidation imbalance
• Social sentiment extremes
Output: • Market crowded long / crowded short / balanced • Contrarian signal (if any)

7️⃣ KEY LEVELS & LIQUIDITY MAP Provide actionable levels:
BTC:
• Major support
• Resistance
• Liquidity magnets
• Invalidation level
ETH:
• Same structure

8️⃣ TODAY’S TACTICAL PLAYBOOK (MOST IMPORTANT) List ONLY 3–5 highest probability setups:
For each: • Asset • Setup type (breakout / bounce / listing / narrative rotation) • Entry zone • Invalidation • Target zone • Why this trade has edge TODAY

9️⃣ WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE BIAS TODAY List 3 invalidation triggers that would flip market outlook.

Rules:
• Be concise but insight-dense.
• Avoid generic explanations.
• Prioritize signals traders can act on immediately.

• Focus on probability, positioning, and liquidity — not headlines.
• If data is uncertain, state confidence level.

worst joke i ve heard in a long time…. 🤯🙈

Video

Soon more AI models than crypto L1, everyone releasing AI models

How to Keep the First $5M Notes from a Reformed Degen:


https://x.com/RaAres/status/2035012801983291480?s=20

One of the pieces I put a lot of soul into it. I hope you guys like it and helps you.

Good old NFT times haha:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2036026759624139262?s=20 ✅

Wish you all a safe day with cheap oil !

Rumours say one of you know who sons tried to make some money with inside info on war and shorted Oil, but he shorted sunflower one not Brent.

Crypto trenches last months

War will be over guys, Greece sent 300 soldiers to Iran.

Who wants to generate income in crypto/stocks ask your AI: How to use covered calls and cash secured puts to generate income? Explain me the flywheel strategy.

Thank yourself later for putting the effort to understand this. nfa dyor

we all use AI today, but have you ever heard of ELIZA? (no, that ELIZAOS), but the very first AI experiment from freakin 1966!

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2037169159306416391?s=20

Wish you all a great day!

A bit of game theory:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2038585016087716211?s=20

Wish you all the best day! 🕊

AAVE V4 is chanigng defi forever, why? you can read bellow:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2039314668259283304?s=20

Wish you all great day!

paying for all these AI models and they all worth their money

For the ones that are still not interested in Gold:

" The Gold Angle: Optional "Backstop," Not Required
China has made Yuan more attractive for oil exporters by allowing them to convert excess Yuan into physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). This was highlighted in early petroyuan designs (around 2017–2018) and remains part of the ecosystem.

An oil seller receives Yuan → They can hold it, spend it on Chinese goods/services, or exchange it for gold if they prefer a hard asset over holding RMB (due to capital controls or convertibility concerns).
This gold convertibility acts as a confidence booster for the "petroyuan" system, especially for sanctioned countries wary of holding Yuan long-term. It doesn't mean you physically ship gold for every oil deal—it's more like a redemption option for the seller after receiving Yuan"

TLDR: As oil exporter you can hold USD which devaluates non stop and can see your assets freezed like Russia saw with its 600bil+ or you can skip USD and use YUAN and have the option to actually convert it into Gold. Is why China will continue to buy gold because that currency needs to be backed and them being the world biggest importers of oil is logic the ones that are selling oil to them will just have more and more yuan so China will have to have more and more gold to back that up. I started to add on big dips some gold with PAXG and XAUT. nfa ofc

So far my experience with diff models:

Gemini is the stable old wise man, Claude is the orchestrator, Grok is the rebel guy eager for new stuff and always up to the second with news, ChatGPT is a woman.