RaArΞs ⚓️ - Crypto Defi α
23.3K subscribers
1.21K photos
77 videos
18 files
1.41K links
Hey all and welcome !
I've started my crypto journey in 2014 and this is my public journal so I don’t forget the adventure.
All I write here is personal opinion not financial advice. Dyor and be safe.
@RaAres for any questions.
https://x.com/RaAres
Download Telegram
A nice read from Citrini7 report:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2026303721076895876?s=20

Wish you all a good day! Lets hope the winter ends soon, is boring to see daily non stop falling prices.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
👍1
RaArΞs ⚓️ - Crypto Defi α
Setting daily tasks in grok is super good to get a “presidential” daily newspaper tailored to your needs, this is the prompt I use and I get a resume every morning from Grok so I prepare better the day ahead: Daily crypto digest for today 1 Top 3-5 news/events…
Upgraded refined daily prompt🔔:

copy paste bellow 👇_____________________________


Act as a professional crypto trading intelligence desk.

Create a DAILY CRYPTO TRADING INTELLIGENCE REPORT focused ONLY on short-term tradable insights (24h–7d horizon).
Prioritize actionable signals over general news.

Structure the report EXACTLY as follows:

--------------------------------------------------

1️⃣ MARKET REGIME (Context First)
- BTC trend status: trend / range / distribution / capitulation
- BTC dominance change (24h & 7d)
- Total crypto market cap change
- Stablecoin inflows/outflows (risk-on or risk-off signal)
- Funding rates (BTC, ETH, majors)
- Open Interest change + interpretation
- Major liquidation clusters & key liquidity levels

Output:
• Today’s Market Mode:
• Trading Bias: Long dips / Short rips / Neutral
• Risk Level (Low / Medium / High)

--------------------------------------------------

2️⃣ HIGH-IMPACT CATALYSTS (Next 24–72h ONLY)
List ONLY events likely to move price:

- Major exchange listings (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX)
- Perpetual futures listings
- Token unlocks (>1% circulating supply)
- ETF or institutional flows
- Regulatory or macro catalysts
- Airdrop snapshots or ecosystem launches

For each include:
• Asset
• Event
• Timing
• Expected volatility impact
• Historical reaction pattern

Highlight:
Highest-probability tradable catalyst

--------------------------------------------------

3️⃣ SMART MONEY & FLOW SIGNALS
Identify non-retail signals:

- Coins with unusual volume expansion
- Open Interest spikes
- Whale accumulation/distribution signals
- Large exchange inflows/outflows
- Sector/narrative rotation (AI, RWA, L2, memes, gaming, etc.)

Output:
• Early rotation candidates
• Overcrowded trades to avoid

--------------------------------------------------

4️⃣ MOMENTUM & MEAN REVERSION SCANNER
From CoinGecko Top 300:

Show TOP signals (not just gainers):

Coin | Rank | Price | 24h % | Volume Δ | OI Δ | Signal Type

Signal logic:
- ↑ price + ↑ volume + ↑ OI → trend continuation
- ↑ price + ↓ OI → squeeze (possible fade)
- ↓ price + OI flush → bounce candidate

Double-check prices using Binance spot markets.

--------------------------------------------------

5️⃣ LIQUIDITY & MACRO DASHBOARD
Assess macro conditions affecting crypto:

- Global M2 liquidity trend
- DXY direction
- US yields trend
- Equity market correlation (risk-on/off)
- ETF BTC/ETH flow direction (if available)

Output:
• Macro Tailwind or Headwind Today
• Liquidity Impact Score (Bullish / Neutral / Bearish)

--------------------------------------------------

6️⃣ SENTIMENT & POSITIONING ANALYSIS
Interpret — not just report:

- Fear & Greed Index
- Funding extremes
- Retail vs whale positioning
- Liquidation imbalance
- Social sentiment extremes

Output:
• Market crowded long / crowded short / balanced
• Contrarian signal (if any)

--------------------------------------------------

7️⃣ KEY LEVELS & LIQUIDITY MAP
Provide actionable levels:

BTC:
- Major support
- Resistance
- Liquidity magnets
- Invalidation level

ETH:
- Same structure

--------------------------------------------------

8️⃣ TODAY’S TACTICAL PLAYBOOK (MOST IMPORTANT)
List ONLY 3–5 highest probability setups:

For each:
• Asset
• Setup type (breakout / bounce / listing / narrative rotation)
• Entry zone
• Invalidation
• Target zone
• Why this trade has edge TODAY

--------------------------------------------------

9️⃣ WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE BIAS TODAY
List 3 invalidation triggers that would flip market outlook.

--------------------------------------------------

Rules:
- Be concise but insight-dense.
- Avoid generic explanations.
- Prioritize signals traders can act on immediately.
- Focus on probability, positioning, and liquidity — not headlines.
- If data is uncertain, state confidence level.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
9
Already hearing “Damn I wish I had bought more in the dip “
😁3
congrat bros, we made it tru this hard period, manipulation at its finest, better days are coming 🙏❤️
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🤔3🕊2
Whats up with our RAM prices ?

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2026942207211557214?s=20

Wish you all the best day!
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Future Nobel price winer just started another war. thank you Mr President, we are tired of winning so much 🪦
🤣5😁1
I know Quantum risk is not that close but I love to see Ethereum guys beside selling $ETH are also trying to position as Quantum-Resistance chain. As a $ETH holder at least I like we are heading in the right direction beside price action:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2027780433585574086?s=20
Long OIL thread, worth the reading imho especially now with Iran situation:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2028152569059737756?s=20

wish you a good day!
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Even with this war and madness in the airports 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 🇮🇷 🇾🇪 and $BTC still holding so strong above $66k 💪 People calling for $40k or under are imho a bit delusional
Love it how people trade XAU ( Gold) and they never heard of London Gold Fix. Just dig a bit and you`ll see how useful are the TA on gold.
5
If you are very rich in the Middle East now and want to exit, hard to send money from UAE in US or Europe so prob most rich and very rich will just use bitcoin & stablecoins. Imho is why $BTC is pumping now.
😁9
Will $BTC be up or down by the end of this month?
Anonymous Poll
50%
Up, above 75k
50%
Down, bellow 70k
Crazy if you think in fees generated terms. $HYPE

source: https://x.com/Mikesi30/status/2029578370040918482?s=20
2
$OIL above $120 never a good thing
3👍1
A bit of DePIN and cloud gaming, YOM project:

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2032044821141921881?s=20

Wish you all a giga great day!
3
scientists recently simulated an entire fly brain

more than 125,000 neurons and 50m connections: 🤔

https://x.com/RaAres/status/2032119179340304563?s=20
2
Have you honestly bought last 2m spot $HYPE to hold it for long term ?
Anonymous Poll
12%
1. I traded it only
19%
2. Yes, bought and holding long term.
68%
3. Havent bought any $HYPE recently
👍1
Asking questions in 2026 is like writing an essay back in school:


“Act as a Wall Street equity analyst. Do a deep dive on MicroStrategy ($MSTR) over the next 3–6 months.

Summarize the business model and how much of the equity value comes from Bitcoin vs the software business.

Pull the latest financials, Bitcoin holdings, debt profile, and any recent capital raises or convertible issues.

Analyze valuation vs both its BTC net asset value and software peers (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, premium/discount to BTC NAV).

Break down key strengths and weaknesses of the MSTR strategy (Bitcoin accumulation, leverage, dilution risk, governance, regulatory risk).

Build a 3‑month base case, bullish case, and bearish case for the stock with explicit assumptions for BTC price, equity risk sentiment, and funding conditions.

For each scenario, estimate a reasonable price range for MSTR, explain the drivers, and assign subjective probabilities.

Highlight the main risks that could invalidate each scenario and what indicators I should monitor (on‑chain BTC data, funding rates, options skew, short interest, macro).

Given that I have a high risk tolerance but a large part of my wealth is already in crypto‑linked trades, discuss position sizing, whether it makes sense to add MSTR exposure, and what role it should play in a portfolio (hedge, leveraged bet, diversifier, etc.).
Assume I’m an experienced retail trader comfortable with derivatives, and be detailed and data‑driven.”