Rajesh Palviya
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*🔹Mkt. Updates :*

*SGX Nifty -16 pts (12105) from last trade 12121 ,*

Nikkei -238 pts ,
Hangseng -130 pts ,
Now @6.52am .

Dow +11.60 pts ,Nsdq +5.48 pts , S&P
-2.84 pts , Bovespa -1094 pts , Ftse +2 pts , Dax +21 pts , Cac +29 pts , Crude @ $53.12 brl (-0.21), Brent @ $59.60 brl (-0.00) , Gold @ 1576.20 (+5.79), Silver @ $17.545 (+0.05), Euro @ $1.1012, JPY @ $108.94, INR @ 71.305


*🔹US GOVT. 10-YEAR YIELD : 1.58%*


*Today's Corporate Action, 30th Jan Ex Date :*

GMM
Interim Dividend - Rs. - 1.0000
GRANULES
Interim Dividend - Rs. - 0.2500


*Today's Key Result, NET PROFIT ESTIMATES, 30th Jan :*

Bajaj Auto ( 1212 Cr +10% Yoy Res After Mkt )
Bharti Infratel ( Cons 781 Cr +20% Yoy Res After Mkt)
IOC ( 2277 Cr +273 % Yoy Res During Mkt)
Tata Motors ( Cons 952 Cr Res After Mkt)
BEL ( 400 Cr -21% Yoy)
Colpal ( 203 Cr +6% Yoy )
Dabur ( Cons 400 Cr +9% Yoy)
Marico ( Cons 262 Cr +6% Yoy)
Lic House ( 609 Cr +5% Yoy)
Source Cogencis


*Today's Data Alert :*

Jan 30-31: Government finances for Apr-Dec, by CGA
TARGET CHANGES
Bajaj Finance
Citi raises target to 4800 from 4400
CS raises target to 4050 from 3850
Emkay raises target to 4900 from 4692
GS raises target to 5030 from 4874
HSBC maintains at 5100
MS maintains at 4250
Antique maintains at 4885

Bajaj Finserv
Nomura raises target to 11500 from 9500

Jubilant Food
Citi raises to 2020 from 1655
CS raises to 1460 from 1300
Edel raises to 2015 from 1642
Emkay raises to 1930 from 1825
GS cuts to 1108 from 1127
Macq raises to 2023 from 1800
MS maintains at 1900
UBS maintains at 2100
Breaking News on Kotak: Founder holding to be cut to 26% within 6 months of RBI nod
*30-Jan: Prov Cash: Rs.crs:*:
*FIIs: -962.28* (4674.24-5636.52)
*DIIs: +292.35* (3748.39-3456.04)
Cash Vol: 40171 vs 40364, 0%
F&O Vol: 3120411 vs 1736105, +80%
*SGX Nifty +30 pts (12076) from last trade 12046 ,*


Nikkei +399 pts ,
Hangseng +308 pts ,
Now @6.52am .


Dow +124.99 pts ,Nsdq +23.77 pts , S&P
+10.26 pts , Bovespa +143 pts , Ftse -101 pts , Dax -187 pts , Cac -83 pts , Crude @ $52.89 brl (+0.75), Brent @ $59.18 brl (-0.63) , Gold @ 1579.50 (-9.70), Silver @ $17.82 (-0.17), Euro @ $1.1028, JPY @ $108.88, INR @ 71.565




*Today's Corporate Action*
31st Jan Ex Date



MOTILALOFS
Interim Dividend - Rs. - 4.0000
SHARDACROP
Interim Dividend - Rs. - 2.0000




*Today's Key Result*
NET PROFIT ESTIMATES
31st Jan



Hind Lever ( 1642 Cr +14% Yoy Res During Mkt )
ITC ( 3862 Cr +20% Yoy Res During Mkt)
SBI ( 5672 Cr +43% Yoy Res During Mkt)
Tech Mah ( Cons 1001 Cr -17% Yoy Res During Mkt)
VEDL ( Cons 889 Cr -44% Yoy Res After Mkt)
Ab Capital ( 262 Cr )
Bank of India ( 614 Cr )
Coromandel Fert ( Cons 201 Cr +30% Yoy)
Future Consumer ( 5Cr LOSS )
Indian Hotel ( Cons 159 Cr -2% Yoy )
Jublient Life ( Cons 235 Cr -10 % Yoy)
Powergrid ( 2549 Cr +9% Yoy)
Source Cogencis


 

*Today's Data Alert*




Jan 31:    Government finances for Apr-Dec, by CGA.


Jan 31   : Finance Minister Sitharaman to table Economic Survey for 2019-20 in both Houses of Parliament. New Delhi. Chief Economic Adviser Subramanian to address the media after Economic Survey is tabled. 1345 IST, New Delhi.


Jan 31   : Tech Mahindra to discuss Oct-Dec earnings. Senior management to be
present. 1530 IST onwards, Mumbai.


Jan 31   : Budget session to begin. President Kovind to address joint session of Parliament. 1100 IST.


Jan 31   : Economic Survey for 2019-20 to be presented in Parliament.


Jan 31   : Core sector output for December, by commerce and industry ministry. 1700 IST.


Jan 31   : BOND AUCTION: RBI to auction 20 bln rupees of 6.17%, 2021 bond, 20 bln
 rupees of 7.27%, 2026 bond, 50 bln rupees of 6.45%, 2029 bond, 10 bln rupees
of 7.62%, 2039 bond and 40 bln rupees of 7.63%, 2059 bond.





*Today's Global Data*



*Jan 31: UK Brexit Day*
Photo from Rajesh Palviya.....RP
FISCAL HEALTH

* May need to relax fiscal gap aim FY20 to revive growth

* Need counter-cyclical fisc steps to up demand

* Counter-cyclical fisc steps to up consumer sentiment

* FY21 expected to pose challenges on fiscal front

* Food subsidy rationalisation key tool to fisc mgmt

* Pace of GDP growth recovery to impact revenue collection

* Apr-Nov indirect tax collections have been muted

* GST buoyancy key to centre, state revenue position

* See FY20 tax collections to be lower than estimate

* See non-tax revenue, divest partly offsetting tax gap

* High non-tax revenue growth not sustainable yr after yr

* Must focus on trimming non-committed revenue spend

* Improvement in tax mop-up hinges on GST revenue buoyancy

* Low tax/GDP ratio constrains govt's infra, invest spend

* Improving composition, quality of govt spending crucial

* Room to further rationalise subsidies, especially food



GROWTH, INFLATION

* FY21 GDP growth seen at 6.0-6.5%

* See strong rebound in growth in FY21 on low base

* Length of Indian business cycle appears to be 13 quarters

* Growth resurgence expected to begin starting H2 FY20

* Global sentiment continues to favour India

* Industrial activity rebounding, showing signs of pick up

* Outlook on global growth continues to be weak

* Cut in capex by govt may adversely hurt growth

* Continued global trade tensions could hit India exports

* Improving farm terms-of-trade to lift rural consumption



BANKING, INDUSTRY

* Seeing progress, albeit slow, in implementation of IBC

* Banks may remain risk averse unless IBC process speeds up

* Private invest may get crowded on higher govt infra spend

* Housing prices remain elevated

* Realtors must cut home prices to clear unsold inventory

* Greater home sales can clean up bank, NBFC balance sheets
Economic Survey Report 2019-20.pdf
292.9 KB
Economic Survey Report 2019-20.pdf
Economic Survey Volume I Complete PDF.pdf
24.4 MB
Economic Survey Volume I Complete PDF.pdf
31-Jan: Provisional Cash: FIIs sell (-Rs4,179cr) (Gross: Rs14,465cr). DII net buy +Rs3,816crs (Gross: Rs10,233crs). Cash Vol:
Rs45,465cr (Rs40,111cr).

31-Jan: Nifty Fut OI: 13.4m shrs vs 10.8m shrs. Volumes 21.1m shrs vs 7m shrs. NMF & MMF Basis @ +32pts & +74pts (DVD: 13.2pts & 23.3pts). F&O Vol: Rs7,01,091cr vs Rs31,19,952cr.

31-Jan: FII's net sell (-Rs3,491crs) in derv. Net sell indx fut: (-Rs2,283crs) & stk fut: (-Rs1,260crs). Net buy indx opt: +Rs1,497crs & stk opt: +Rs51crs. Net sell directional futures: (-Rs3,542crs).
Bulk/Block: Jindal Stainless - buy - Albula Inv (3.9m shrs @Rs41); sell - India Max Inv Fund. Apollo Triton - sell - Rina Singhal (350k shrs @Rs332).
_*Closing Bell.....!!!*_

_Rs. 4 Lakh Cr Wealth Wiped Out As Market Sees Biggest Fall On Budget Day In 11 Years. Sensex Dives 988 Points, Nifty Cracks Below 11650; ITC, HDFC Top Losers._

_*Nifty*_- 11662 (-300)
_*Sensex*_- 39736 (-988)
_*Nifty Bank*_- 29821 (-1013)
_*Gold*_- 41174 (+174)
_*Silver*_- 47184 (+195)
_*Crude Oil*_- 3676 (-7)
_*Natural Gas*_- 134 (+2)
_*$/₹*_- 71.49

_*Most Gainers*_- PGHH, SHAKTIPUMP, TCS, SHILPAMED
_*Most Losers*_- VINATIORGA, MFSL, ICICIPRULI, SBILIFE
_*Most Active*_- SBIN, RELIANCE, IRCTC, LT

_*Advances*_- 404
_*Declines*_- 1372
_*Unchanged*_- 364