QCP Asia Colour - 12 March 25

Markets are on edge as trade tensions flare up once again, with new tariffs expected on April 2. Fresh 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports took effect today, prompting swift retaliation from the EU, which plans to impose €26bn (£22bn) in countermeasures starting next month.

Volatility is spiking. The VIX hit 28 before settling at 26.6, though the Cboe VIX term structure flipping into backwardation hints at a potential market floor. Meanwhile, tonight’s CPI print could set the tone for rate expectations, as markets now price in four Fed cuts this year, up from just one in January. Will inflation data validate this shift or bring fresh turbulence?

In crypto, the SEC has postponed ETF approvals for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE until May, while also launching a high-stakes roundtable on crypto regulation, set for March 21. But with Bitcoin ETFs seeing a $153.87M net outflow, driven by GBTC's 641 BTC offload, investors remain wary.

What’s next for equities and crypto? Read our full analysis here.

QCP Asia Colour - 17 March 25

Over the weekend a BTC whale opened a $400m short position with an average entry price of $84k and liquidation price around $86k. This sparked volatility on Sunday, as some groups attempted to force a liquidation of a highly leveraged 40x position, which would have required just a 2.5% price move. Despite these efforts, the position remains open with almost $400k in funding fees.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 32% (Fear). reflecting persistent risk-off sentiment, particularly given the broader negativity in equity markets. This has further reinforced BTC's role as a macro hedge. For instance, on Friday, 300x of BTC-17MAR25-80k-P was aggressively bought, a clear move to hedge against weekend volatility.

Despite the noise, BTC has held its ground above $80k, showing resilience compared to equities. In contrast, US equity futures opened lower this morning amid renewed recession fears. This follows comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that a recession cannot be ruled out, echoing sentiments previously expressed by Trump. Markets will look to tonight's US Retail Sales data for further clarity and whether January's 0.9% decline in retail sales was the first sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or simply a pullback after a strong end to 2024's holiday season.

With crypto narratives running thin, equities remain the primary focus. Last week's softer-than-expected US CPI print provided temporary relief, but the Fed is unlikely to pivot dovish just yet. Rate cuts remain uncertain, given ongoing tariff risks and inflation concerns. As such, we expect the Fed to keep rates steady at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. However, vols are likely to remain elevated as the market scans for any clues on the Fed's next move, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policy shifts.

QCP Asia Colour - 18 March 25

Will Powell blink first? A rate cut this Wednesday remains highly unlikely as the U.S. pivots away from fiscal dominance, where government spending fueled growth, toward Trump's push for deficit reduction. The shift puts the burden back on monetary policy. While we do not anticipate a surprise cut, any dovish signal from Powell could be the catalyst that sparks upside momentum.

Macro volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX retreating to around 20 and BTC vols ticking lower as it remains range-bound between $80,000 and $85,000. In the absence of fresh tariff headlines, geopolitics has returned to the forefront. Israel's renewed strikes on Gaza following a temporary truce have pushed gold soaring past $3,000, while BTC continues to exhibit a negative correlation.

Germany is heading into a key vote, while fiscal expansions in both Germany and China have powered stronger equity performance relative to the U.S. This raises a crucial question: is this simply broad risk reduction, or are we witnessing a regime shift? Capital may be rotating out of Trump-driven momentum trades like NASDAQ and Bitcoin and into long-overlooked European and Chinese markets.

Historically, crypto prices have lagged shifts in global liquidity conditions. With a potential Fed pivot and fresh stimulus injections from Europe and China, will BTC see a renewed leg higher after this correction?

QCP Asia Colour - 19 March 25

Today marks exactly one month since the S&P500 hit a new all-time high. The market euphoria and narrative of US exceptionalism, once dominant across Wall Street and Main Street, have faded into the background. The sentiment shift is undeniable, and the pressing question now is: "How much longer will this pain last?"

The latest casualties of the downturn include some of the largest macro hedge funds where they were stopped out and cut losses in the rout this month. Millennium reported losses of $900 million from just two of its teams, while Brevan Howard's Master Fund is down 5% year-to-date, prompting tighter risk limits for traders. For these traders at least, the music hasn't stopped just yet, but it is undeniably slowing.

Geopolitical Pressures Mounting
The gloves are off. Tit-for-tat reactions from Canada, China and potentially the EU are fueling a creeping cost spiral for the US. The biggest near-term risk? The looming 2 April deadline, when Trump is expected to roll out another round of reciprocal tariffs. This remains the most immediate headwind for risk assets.

Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, but we are surprised by the muted response in energy prices. This appears to stem from policy uncertainty in the US, where oil supply may increase. On the demand side, the ongoing global trade war is casting a long shadow. For now, we favor gold over oil as a more reliable barometer of risk sentiment.

Watching for a Dovish Tilt
Tonight's FOMC meeting is highly likely hold rates steady. However, we will be watching closely for any dovish shifts, particularly on growth and inflation expectations. Given that it will take months for the impact of tariffs to ripple through the economy, we expect the Fed to remain in "wait-and-see" mode. The 2 April tariff decision, while well-telegraphed, remains a key uncertainty.

BTC at $80k: A True Floor or Just a Pause?
Positions continue to be washed out as momentum and carry trades unwind. BTC has found some support at the $80k, but that seems tenuous at best amid broader macro weakness.

We won't attempt to call the exact moment when the music stops, but in the short term, we struggle to identify meaningful tailwinds to reverse this rout. Our focus remain on principal-protected yield strategies to preserve the war chest while hedging against a prolonged downturn.

QCP Asia Colour – 20 March 25

Last night’s FOMC meeting delivered the upside catalyst markets had been waiting for, propelling BTC past $85K in a sharp rally. The key driver? The Fed's decision to scale back its “quantitative tightening” program starting in April. Markets interpreted this as an indirect rate cut, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will begin easing as soon as June. At the time of writing, three rate cuts are being priced in for 2025, with expectations for them in June, September, and December.

Beyond the immediate excitement, the Fed's tone was notably cautious. Policymakers downgraded economy growth projections to 1.7% (a 0.4% reduction), while raising their inflation forecast to 2.8%, signaling a growing risk of stagflation. Additionally, the Fed's dot plot revealed a more hawkish shift from the one in December, with the number of officials forecasting no rate cuts in 2025 increasing to four.

On the options front, market positioning has normalized, with skew shifting back toward calls. This stands in stark contrast to earlier in the week when the skew favored puts. The key test now comes at tonight's US open. Will the rally sustain, or will investors wake up to the reality that risks remain firmly in play?

QCP Asia Colour – 24 March 25

Crypto markets staged a modest rebound over the weekend, with BTC and ETH breaking back above $85k and $2k respectively. The recovery appears to have been led by equities, with equities futures clocking in a solid bounce. While recessionary concerns continue to hover, Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, though measured, helped soothe investors' nerves. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has improved from 32% last week to 45% this week (49% being neutral), reflecting a broader easing of risk aversion.

A notable bright spot came from spot BTC ETF inflows, which grew substantially with 8,775 BTC (equivalent to $744m) purchased last week. This marks a sharp reversal after several consecutive weeks of net outflows and signals early signs of liquidity rotating back into crypto markets. With perp OI still subdued and funding rates flat, the rally appears driven by genuine spot demand rather than leverage, a critical distinction given that leverage-fuelled moves tend to unwind abruptly on liquidations.

Yet, despite the renewed ETF momentum and today's follow-through rally, we remain cautious on prospects for a sustained breakout higher. Upcoming tariff escalations slated for 2 April could once again pressure risk assets. Meanwhile, the options market reflects a more neutral wait-and-see stance, with implied vols trending lower and risk reversals turning flat across all tenors, a stark contrast to the more bearish skew observed just a week ago.

We will be watching closely to see whether this week's recovery mirrors last Monday's price action, where crypto rallied on Sunday only to retrace sharply within 48 hours.

QCP Asia Colour – 25 March 25

One of the fastest U.S. stock downturns in recent history may well be behind us - or so JPMorgan and a growing chorus of strategists are telling their clients, pointing to a confluence of improving sentiment and historically supportive seasonality.

But what seasonality, exactly?
Q2, and April in particular, has historically been one of the best periods for risk assets, second only to the festive December rally. The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualised return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch - again, trailing only Q4.

Relief rally or sustained rebound?
Risk assets staged one of their strongest sessions of the year, helped by a temporary easing of fears around the April 2nd tariff deadline. Trump signalled twice on Monday that trading partners might secure exemptions or reductions, offering a reprieve that helped soothe market jitters.

BTC briefly broke above $88K, with alts outperforming in what appears to be a short-term relief bounce. However, options markets remain cautious. Call skew hasn’t meaningfully shifted toward calls, with call skew only emerging from June onwards, suggesting traders are waiting to see how the tariff situation develops.

As we approach Friday’s quarterly expiry, with the highest open interest in topside strikes above $100K, we don’t expect major volatility driven by options positioning alone. But attention will turn to the PCE inflation print, which could become the next key catalyst.

In the highly unlikely event that the S&P 500 drifts lower toward $5,565 - a level where the JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund is known to hold sizable long put positions - we could see pin risk emerge, potentially triggering a sharp spike in U.S. equities volatility.

QCP Asia Colour – 26 March 25

Risk assets continued their move higher as volatility retreated further. The S&P 500 has reclaimed the $5800 level, marking a 5% rebound from the trough just two weeks prior. BTC has surged 15% since briefly dipping below $77k last week, with alts broadly outperforming over the same period.

The spike in VIX, which topped at 30 and triggered a wave of stop losses along with a sharp reduction in positioning, has now retraced to 17. We see the equity move as a tactical relief rally driven by asset managers rotating back to into risk, rather than a response to any fundamental macro shift.

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains front of mind. Trump has teased further tariff measures ahead of the April 2nd deadline. However, the market still lacks clarity on the scope, timing and magnitude of these potential actions. Until then, we expect more sideways volatility.

Copper and Gold have taken center stage. Copper has rallied to fresh all-time highs on the back of tightening supply dynamics. While hopes of China-led demand recovery are being cited, we believe these are only a secondary tailwind. Meanwhile, Gold has also breached the $3000 level, though we anticipate this to act as a key psychological cap.

In digital assets, we see scope for BTC to outperform tactically in the near term. In a surprising twist, GameStop (GME) has added BTC to their treasury. While this is not a first in the corporate adoption story, the symbolic weight of GME's meme status could rekindle speculative fervour among retail participants. As the 2021 playbook reminds us, retail flows, if coordinated, have the power to challenge institutional positioning.

QCP Asia Colour - 27 March 25

President Trump escalated tensions overnight, announcing a 25% tariff on automobile imports, effective from 3rd April, alongside the long-anticipated reciprocal tariffs against US' largest trade partners. Any further retaliation from these target economies risks injecting a fresh wave of uncertainty into an already volatile global trade landscape. Predictably, Japanese and South Korean equities traded in the red, with automobile stocks bearing the brunt of this leg down.

In crypto markets, sentiment remains subdued despite headline-grabbing catalysts. GME's surprise $1.3bn capital raise for Bitcoin allocation has yet to lift broader sentiment. The only silver lining is the steady inflow for BTC ETFs, totalling $944.9m since the 14Mar25 expiry. In contrast, ETH ETFs have recorded $112.1m in outflows over the same period. This presents a telling divergence that reflects the market's bifurcated institutional conviction.

On-chain developments offer some hope for ETH. With Pectra now successfully deployed on the Hoodi testnet and a mainnet upgrade expected in Q2, could we see a reversal of this downward ETHBTC trend in the coming quarter?

Looking ahead to tomorrows expiry, $12.2bn worth of BTC options will expire with max pain at $85,000. BTC has already begun grinding lower from Monday's highs, and both BTC and ETH front-end vols have collapsed by 10 vols. Spot is trading sideways and OI continues to bleed lower, signalling a broad lack of near-term optimism in the market. With the PCE Index data due tomorrow, we believe any short-term upside remains capped as markets wait for clarity from Trump's next move in this escalating trade war.

QCP Asia Colour - 1 April 25

It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum.

Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted.

Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs.

With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.

Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.

April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction.

Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility:
- 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings
- 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI
- 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech

QCP Asia Colour - 2 April 25

It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".

The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.

Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices.

Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach.

In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.

QCP Asia Colour - 4 April 25

Liberation Day or Liquidation Day?

In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S.

Markets wasted no time reacting. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH.

As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains.

With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December.

On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious.

That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.

QCP Asia Colour - 7 April 25

Markets are reeling as the global trade war intensifies. While U.S. equities were already under heavy pressure last week, BTC largely weathered the storm over the weekend. However, that resilience proved short-lived. Crypto plunged during early Asia hours with BTC breaking below $80k and freefalling to a low of $74.5k. Over $800m in liquidations across BTC and ETH have occurred in the past 24 hours alone.

As markets continue to plunge into correction territory, BTC and ETH Friday implied vols spiked above 85v and 130v respectively as the market rushed to cover their downside exposure. The VIX surged above 60, signalling extreme panic and fear across risk assets. China's stock market wasn't spared either as it suffers the worst single-day crash since 2008, likely a delayed reaction from Friday's retaliation where China imposed sweeping 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.

With just two days to go until the 9 April implementation of higher customs tariffs, the global economy teeters on the edge of a full-scale economic war. Remarkably, Trump's "all-in" appears to be drawing engagement, with reports suggesting over 50 countries reaching out to initiate trade negotiations.

Yet as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. The president, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall, "‘but sometimes you have to take medicine." With confidence and the credibility of the U.S. economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for global markets, and for Trump himself, if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday.

QCP Asia Colour - 9 April 25

Markets extended their declines overnight after the U.S. imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on China, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%.

Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX holding above 40 for the third straight session. Even traditional safe havens are failing to function as intended. Risk off assets are failing to provide a suitable hedge, with Gold and U.S. bonds selling off as investors rush to de-risk and meet margin calls.

The Trump administration's strategy to refinance U.S. debt at lower levels is showing signs of strain, as yields surged across the curve. 10Y USTs peaked at 4.50%, while 30Y yields briefly breached 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen, reflecting a broader deterioration in risk sentiment.

Rather than pivoting, President Trump appears to be employing a martingale strategy, doubling down on each retaliatory move. With China holding most of the leverage, the question becomes: how many more chips can the U.S. afford to throw into the pot?

Markets are now posed between two hopes, either a Trump put or Fed put, to provide a floor. Neither looks immediately forthcoming. With unemployment holding steady and inflation showing signs of resurgence, the Fed is likely to maintain current rates for the foreseeable future. This stands in contrast to market pricing, which reflects expectations of four cuts in 2025, including speculation about a potential inter-meeting cut.

BTC is consolidating around the $75k level, though this could unravel if equities face another sharp leg lower. ETH continues to underperform, drifting toward the $1,400, levels last seen in early 2023. Amid heightened volatility, crypto yield strategies are coming back into focus. Elevated implied vols offer a compelling window to earn carry through structured trades.

QCP Asia Colour - 10 April 25

Make America Wealthy Again

If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.

Respect is Earned, Not Given

In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.

Not Out of the Woods Yet

The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.

All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.

QCP Asia Colour - 14 April 25

Going All-In

After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.

The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?

Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.

So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.

What about BTC?

In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.

QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25

The Art of the Deal

The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.

Why the sudden pivot?

Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.

The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".

Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.

Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.

Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.

But where's Bitcoin in all this?

Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.

QCP Asia Colour - 21 April 25

Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.

But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.

Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.

So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.

For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.

QCP Asia Colour - 22 April 25

Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.

Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.

Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.

Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.

For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.

QCP Asia Colour – 23 April 25

When the Noise Becomes the Signal

Just when markets seemed saturated with headlines, a blockbuster $3 billion Bitcoin fund has taken center stage. In an audacious move, Cantor, SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex are aligning to launch 21 Capital (tentatively titled), a bold BTC acquisition vehicle led by Brandon Lutnick.

The fund plans to raise an additional $350 million via convertible bonds, alongside a $200 million private equity round, with one clear directive: buy more Bitcoin, and buy it big. The structure channels early echoes of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet once dominated headlines.

But 21 Capital brings a new twist: converting BTC holdings into equity, issuing shares priced at $10, effectively valuing Bitcoin at $85,000 per coin. For many, this isn’t just another fund, it’s a prototype for institutionalizing crypto exposure at scale.

Timing is Everything

The launch comes on the heels of a decisive shift in U.S. policy posture, as the Trump administration leans into the “digital gold” narrative, lending political tailwinds to crypto markets.

Bitcoin has surged past the prior $88.8k technical ceiling, clearing the psychological $90k mark to trade at an eye-watering $93.5k. Meanwhile, Gold has slid 6 percent, underscoring a renewed appetite for risk and a clear rotation into digital assets.

Institutions are no longer testing crypto’s waters. They are diving in headfirst. As Strategy’s playbook fades from the spotlight, 21 Capital looks set to become the new standard-bearer for crypto conviction.

Macro: Less Uncertainty, Not No Risk

Macro risks remain, but one critical overhang appears to be cleared. Trump is signaling no intention to replace Fed Chair Powell for now. The reassurance has prompted a modest pullback in long-end yields, helping reduce a key tail risk.

Despite calmer bond markets, U.S. equities remain tethered near record highs at $5,400, reflecting a more tempered and cautious response. The broader outlook, however, is anything but simple. Trade frictions, geopolitical jitters, and regulatory opacity continue to cast long shadows.

Investors are navigating a rapidly shifting landscape, remaining sharply attuned to the next potential inflection point.

QCP Asia Colour – 25 April 25

A sigh of relief

President Trump dialled down his usual pressure campaign this week, temporarily shelving critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and easing up on China. Despite persistent frustrations over the Fed’s hesitation to cut rates, the President reassured investors Wednesday morning that Powell’s job is safe. In a notable shift, he also acknowledged that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods is “very high” and promised it “will come down substantially.”

Markets welcomed the pause in hostilities. Bitcoin surged to an intraday high of $94.5K, extending its rally to five consecutive days, as broader risk sentiment stabilised.

Achievement unlocked

As BTC reclaimed the $94K handle, it briefly became the fifth-largest asset globally by market capitalisation, overtaking Alphabet (Google) for the first time. Although it has since moderated to around $93K, placing it seventh, the symbolic milestone reflects the ongoing maturation of the asset class.

This momentum is underpinned by deepening institutional participation, with emerging players like 21 Capital helping cement Bitcoin’s place among the world's most valuable assets.

Remember to monitor positioning closely

With BTC holding firmly above $90K, sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic. Call options at $95K strikes for end-April and end-May expiries have dominated flow, pointing to a tactical appetite for further upside.

Still, with macro risks temporarily subdued and trade tensions cooling, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow $90K–$94.5K range while awaiting a catalyst for a decisive push toward the elusive $100K mark.

Given the pace of the recent rally, we remain tactically cautious. Positioning has become more crowded, which could lead to sharper reactions around key levels. Market participants appear to be watching closely for signs of continuation or exhaustion.