Forwarded from PD
Why do prediction market prices change?
New information changes opinions. Opinions change positions. Positions change the market probability.
We explained it simply in our latest PythoDex post 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087454106596368840?s=20
New information changes opinions. Opinions change positions. Positions change the market probability.
We explained it simply in our latest PythoDex post 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087454106596368840?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Why do prediction market prices change?
New information changes opinions. Opinions change positions. Positions change probabilities.
The market isn't predicting the future. It's showing what par…
New information changes opinions. Opinions change positions. Positions change probabilities.
The market isn't predicting the future. It's showing what par…
❤1
BTC 47%
ETH 52%
SOL 56%
Quick market check 👀
What are you watching today?
See the full post on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087775044009431241?s=20
ETH 52%
SOL 56%
Quick market check 👀
What are you watching today?
See the full post on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087775044009431241?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
BTC: 47%
ETH: 52%
SOL: 56%
Interesting spread today.
SOL is leading, ETH is sitting just above 50%, while BTC is below it.
Let’s see where these probabilities move next
ETH: 52%
SOL: 56%
Interesting spread today.
SOL is leading, ETH is sitting just above 50%, while BTC is below it.
Let’s see where these probabilities move next
50% is where things get interesting
The market is split. But that can change quickly when new information comes in
We broke it down in our latest post on X
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087818943746441452?s=20
The market is split. But that can change quickly when new information comes in
We broke it down in our latest post on X
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2087818943746441452?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
50% is where things get interesting.
The market isn’t saying “we don’t know.”
It’s saying the YES and NO sides are almost perfectly balanced.
Then new information hits and the balance can chang…
The market isn’t saying “we don’t know.”
It’s saying the YES and NO sides are almost perfectly balanced.
Then new information hits and the balance can chang…
Today’s crypto market snapshot is live.
BTC, ETH and SOL are showing different probabilities right now.
See the full post on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088162396527645038?s=20
BTC, ETH and SOL are showing different probabilities right now.
See the full post on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088162396527645038?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Today’s crypto market snapshot
BTC is at 51%, ETH at 45%, while SOL is leading at 56%.
SOL is currently showing the strongest probability of the three.
What are you watching?
BTC is at 51%, ETH at 45%, while SOL is leading at 56%.
SOL is currently showing the strongest probability of the three.
What are you watching?
The biggest lie about prediction markets ?
That they predict the future
They don't. They show what participants believe is most likely right now — and that can change as new information comes in
We broke it down in our latest PythoDex post
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088194046917558495?s=20
That they predict the future
They don't. They show what participants believe is most likely right now — and that can change as new information comes in
We broke it down in our latest PythoDex post
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088194046917558495?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Prediction markets don't predict the future.
They show what participants believe is most likely right now.
New information changes conviction.
Conviction changes probabilities.
Big difference. …
They show what participants believe is most likely right now.
New information changes conviction.
Conviction changes probabilities.
Big difference. …
❤1👍1
A prediction market at 50% — what does it mean to you?
Anonymous Poll
0%
Basically a coin flip
100%
Most interesting point to watch
A quick look at today’s market 👀
BTC 48% | ETH 50% | SOL 46%
ETH is sitting right on the line.
See the full market card on X 👇
[Paste X post link]
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088509070395474224?s=20https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088509070395474224?s=20A
BTC 48% | ETH 50% | SOL 46%
ETH is sitting right on the line.
See the full market card on X 👇
[Paste X post link]
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088509070395474224?s=20https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2088509070395474224?s=20A
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Today’s market mood
BTC — 48%
ETH — 50%
SOL — 46%
ETH is sitting right at 50%, while BTC and SOL are leaning lower.
Which one are you watching?
BTC — 48%
ETH — 50%
SOL — 46%
ETH is sitting right at 50%, while BTC and SOL are leaning lower.
Which one are you watching?
Today’s PythoDex crypto market snapshot is live.
BTC, ETH and SOL are showing different probabilities right now.
See the full market update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089235988489142692?s=20
BTC, ETH and SOL are showing different probabilities right now.
See the full market update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089235988489142692?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Crypto market snapshot
BTC is leaning No at 55%, while ETH leans Yes at 49%. SOL is currently at 54% Yes.
Different markets, different probabilities.
What are you watching?
BTC is leaning No at 55%, while ETH leans Yes at 49%. SOL is currently at 54% Yes.
Different markets, different probabilities.
What are you watching?
Why 70% Can Still Be Wrong
A 70% probability sounds strong, but it can still lose.
Probability measures confidence, not certainty.
The mistake is treating a high probability like a guarantee. Markets price likelihood — they don’t promise outcomes.
Respect probability. Question certainty.
Follow PythoDex for more simple prediction-market lessons.
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089311892951159289?s=20
A 70% probability sounds strong, but it can still lose.
Probability measures confidence, not certainty.
The mistake is treating a high probability like a guarantee. Markets price likelihood — they don’t promise outcomes.
Respect probability. Question certainty.
Follow PythoDex for more simple prediction-market lessons.
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089311892951159289?s=20
Today’s PythoDex crypto snapshot is live.
BTC, ETH and SOL are all sitting around the mid-50s right now.
See the full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089580226305212906?s=20
BTC, ETH and SOL are all sitting around the mid-50s right now.
See the full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089580226305212906?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Crypto market check-in
BTC is at 52%, while ETH and SOL are both at 54%.
Pretty close across the board today.
Which one are you watching?
BTC is at 52%, while ETH and SOL are both at 54%.
Pretty close across the board today.
Which one are you watching?
New PythoDex market snapshot is live.
BTC, ETH and SOL are all sitting close together right now.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089964942304944238?s=20
BTC, ETH and SOL are all sitting close together right now.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2089964942304944238?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Crypto is looking pretty balanced right now.
BTC 46%
ETH 47%
SOL 50%
SOL has a slight edge, but there’s no big gap between them.
Let’s see where the numbers move next.
BTC 46%
ETH 47%
SOL 50%
SOL has a slight edge, but there’s no big gap between them.
Let’s see where the numbers move next.
Why do market odds move?
A market can go from 62% → 45% in a few hours.
New information, fresh data or a big trade can change the market's view.
The move matters but the reason behind it matters more.
Read the full breakdown on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090026150752055302?s=20
A market can go from 62% → 45% in a few hours.
New information, fresh data or a big trade can change the market's view.
The move matters but the reason behind it matters more.
Read the full breakdown on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090026150752055302?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Why do market odds move?
A market can go from 62% → 45% in just a few hours.
Usually, something changed new information, fresh data, a statement, or a big trade.
The interesting part isn't just…
A market can go from 62% → 45% in just a few hours.
Usually, something changed new information, fresh data, a statement, or a big trade.
The interesting part isn't just…
Today’s PythoDex market snapshot is live.
BTC is at 53%, ETH 50%, and SOL 51%.
All three are sitting close together right now.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090379148430913655?s=20
BTC is at 53%, ETH 50%, and SOL 51%.
All three are sitting close together right now.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090379148430913655?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Crypto market snapshot
BTC is leading at 53%, while ETH sits at 50% and SOL at 51%.
Pretty close across all three right now — small moves can change the picture quickly.
BTC is leading at 53%, while ETH sits at 50% and SOL at 51%.
Pretty close across all three right now — small moves can change the picture quickly.
Today’s PythoDex market snapshot is live
.BTC is at 44%, while ETH and SOL are both at 53%
.Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090688591282438217?s=20
.BTC is at 44%, while ETH and SOL are both at 53%
.Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090688591282438217?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
BTC is at 44%, while ETH and SOL are both at 53%.
ETH and SOL are leaning higher, while BTC is below the 50% mark.
Let’s see how the market shifts from here.
ETH and SOL are leaning higher, while BTC is below the 50% mark.
Let’s see how the market shifts from here.
❤1
90% sounds strong, but it’s still not a guarantee.
That remaining 10% matters too.
Probability is about what’s likely — not what’s certain.
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090774108749681121?s=20
That remaining 10% matters too.
Probability is about what’s likely — not what’s certain.
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2090774108749681121?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
90% sounds pretty strong
But it still doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed
There’s always that 10% & that’s the point of probability
Likely doesn’t mean certain
But it still doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed
There’s always that 10% & that’s the point of probability
Likely doesn’t mean certain
❤1
Today’s PythoDex crypto snapshot is live.
BTC is at 47%, ETH 49%, and SOL 51%.
A close one across the board today.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2091051427842187285?s=20
BTC is at 47%, ETH 49%, and SOL 51%.
A close one across the board today.
Full update on X 👇
https://x.com/PythoDEX/status/2091051427842187285?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Pytho Dex (@PythoDEX) on X
Crypto market snapshot
BTC 47%
ETH 49%
SOL 51%
Pretty tight across all three today, with SOL just edging ahead
BTC 47%
ETH 49%
SOL 51%
Pretty tight across all three today, with SOL just edging ahead