🗓 UPCOMING ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO LOOK OUT FOR – DECEMBER 24

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🇲🇽 MXN

• Unemployment Rate: Forecast 2.8% | Previous 2.6%

Mexico’s unemployment rate is a key gauge of domestic labour market health. A rising unemployment rate signals cooling economic momentum, which can weigh on MXN sentiment, especially against a still-resilient USD backdrop.

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🇺🇸 USD

• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 226K | Previous 224K

Initial Jobless Claims are a high-frequency indicator of US labour market conditions. A sustained rise in claims would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, while stable or lower readings could help the USD stabilize after recent volatility.

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💡 Trader Tip:

With both MXN labour data and US jobless claims due, expect volatility in USD/MXN and broader USD pairs. Keep positions light ahead of the releases, watch for confirmation after the data, and avoid chasing the first move if spreads widen.

💴 JPY – Yen Strengthens as Japan Issues Strongest Intervention Warning Yet

🗣️⚠️ The yen rebounded as Japanese authorities delivered their clearest intervention warning so far, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stating Japan has a “free hand” to counter speculative and one-sided FX moves.

📈 The move triggered broad JPY short-covering, helping the currency recover from multi-month lows despite lingering doubts after the BoJ’s recent hike to 0.75% failed to provide lasting support amid a cautious tightening outlook.

💵📉 A softer U.S. dollar—driven by markets pricing multiple Fed cuts in 2026—amplified yen gains across major crosses.

📊 While intervention rhetoric can stabilize JPY in the near term, sustained strength likely hinges on clearer BoJ tightening signals and U.S. yield dynamics.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Fell from ~157.00 toward 155.60 before rebounding near 156.50 as intervention fears capped upside.

🇪🇺🇯🇵 EUR/JPY: Corrected from ~184.70 to ~183.40, then recovered toward ~184.20 on profit-taking and short-covering.

🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBP/JPY: Pulled back from ~211.40 to ~210.30 before rebounding toward ~211.10.

🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUD/JPY: Slipped from ~104.60 to ~103.90, then recovered back toward ~104.60.

🇨🇦🇯🇵 CAD/JPY: Stabilized near 114.00–114.20 as yen demand picked up late session.

🇦🇺 AUD – Australian Dollar Hits 13-Week High as RBA Signals Inflation Risks

📈 The Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since September as hawkish signals from the RBA, firmer commodity prices, and a softer U.S. dollar combined to lift AUD sentiment.

🗣️ Minutes from the RBA’s December meeting revealed an active debate over whether policy remains sufficiently restrictive, with policymakers increasingly concerned that inflation pressures could prove persistent.

🔮↗️ Markets have responded by bringing forward expectations for a potential rate hike, now pricing the possibility as early as February 2026 and fully by mid-2026.

📊 While risk-on flows and carry demand continue to favor AUD, the durability of the rally will hinge on upcoming inflation data to confirm whether sticky price pressures justify a tightening path.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: Advanced toward the 0.6700 area, marking a 13-week high before consolidating below 2025 resistance.

🇪🇺🇦🇺 EUR/AUD: Slid toward 1.7600–1.7630 on clear AUD outperformance.

🇬🇧🇦🇺 GBP/AUD: Drifted lower toward 2.0160–2.0200 as AUD strength dominated.

🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUD/JPY: Eased from a 17-month high near 104.60 toward 104.50 amid intervention chatter.

🇦🇺🇨🇦 AUD/CAD: Pulled back toward 0.9160 as CAD stabilized with oil prices.

🇦🇺🇳🇿 AUD/NZD: Consolidated around 1.1470–1.1475, supported by shared risk-on and commodity flows.

🔔 DAILY MARKET DIGEST:

Gold Breaks Records as USD Slumps and Geopolitical Risks Redefine Year-End Market Dynamics 🥇💵🌎⚠️

🇺🇸🥇 Markets moved decisively into risk-repricing mode as strong U.S. growth data failed to rescue the dollar, while gold surged to fresh record highs on entrenched Fed cut expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.

🥇 XAU/USD remained the standout performer, consolidating just below the $4,500 handle amid profit-taking but retaining a clear bullish macro bias.

💵💷💴 In FX, broad USD weakness dominated flows, lifting GBP/USD above 1.35 and driving USD/JPY lower as Japan issued its strongest intervention warning yet.

🛢 Oil markets brushed off a bearish U.S. inventory build, with USOIL holding firm above $58 as Venezuela sanctions and Russia-Ukraine risks kept supply fears elevated.

🇦🇺🇨🇦 Meanwhile, AUD strength accelerated on hawkish RBA signals, and CAD advanced despite weak GDP, underscoring how external drivers and yield expectations are overpowering local data into thin, year-end liquidity.

📉📈 DAILY MARKET PULSE:

💵💴 USD/JPY: 156.21 — Slides for a second session after breaking 156.80 support as Japan’s strongest intervention warning yet lifts the yen, while price still holds above key support with a broader bullish bias.

💷💵 GBP/USD: 1.3515 — Breaks above 1.35 and extends gains for a second day as rate-cut expectations keep the dollar on the back foot, with bullish momentum accelerating beyond 1.3485.

🥇 XAU/USD: 4,483 — Posts another record day and keeps pressing toward 4,500 as Fed cut bets and geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows, even as momentum signals turn overbought.

🛢 USOIL: 58.46 — Rises for a third straight session as traders weigh rising inventories against intensifying geopolitical risks, keeping 58.00 as the key level in focus.

🇭🇰5️⃣0️⃣ HK50: 25,797 — Erases early gains and snaps a four-day winning streak as tech weakness offsets broader optimism, with 26,230 the next major resistance.

🇫🇷4️⃣0️⃣ FRA40: 8,120 — Slips for a second session as holiday caution and French fiscal uncertainty cap risk appetite, with 8,125 acting as a key near-term support.

🔵∴ ADA/USD: 0.36294 — Remains under pressure as risk appetite cools across altcoins, leaving 0.3520 as the next major support if sellers stay in control.

𝐙🔐 ZEC/USD: 417.62 — Extends losses for a third session after a sharp liquidation-driven pullback, keeping 455.90 as the key resistance bulls must reclaim.

👁‍🗨🟩 NVDA: 189.21 — Rallies for a fourth session after breaking 185.55 resistance as optimism builds around potential AI-chip shipments to China.

📱 AMZN: 232.14 — Grinds higher for a fourth session as price leans into 231.80 resistance while investors digest Zoox’s fleet-wide software recall update.

💷 GBP – Sterling Breaks Above 1.35 as Broad Dollar Weakness Dominates

📈 Sterling surged to a fresh 12-week high above 1.35, driven primarily by broad U.S. dollar weakness as markets priced in at least two Fed rate cuts in 2026 and U.S. yields fell.

✂️🗳 Domestic factors played a secondary role: while the BoE delivered a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, a narrow 5–4 vote and guidance favoring slower easing helped prevent GBP softness.

📊↗️ UK GDP grew 0.1% QoQ, in line with expectations, providing a neutral backdrop as thin, holiday-shortened liquidity amplified USD-driven moves across GBP pairs.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: Held above 1.3500, firming near 1.3515 with shallow pullbacks on sustained USD selling.

🇪🇺🇬🇧 EUR/GBP: Slid toward 0.8716 before consolidating near 0.8726, reflecting relative GBP outperformance.

🇬🇧🇨🇦 GBP/CAD: Rebounded from ~1.8465 to reclaim the 1.8500 area amid choppy, upward-biased trade.

🇬🇧🇨🇭 GBP/CHF: Traded sideways near 1.0635 after an early dip toward 1.0620 as CHF capped gains.

🇬🇧🇳🇿 GBP/NZD: Fell toward ~2.3100, with rebounds capped, showing GBP strength was most pronounced versus USD.

🇨🇦 CAD – Canadian Dollar Hits Near Five-Month High Despite GDP Miss

📈 The Canadian dollar climbed to near a five-month high despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in October GDP, as external drivers outweighed weak domestic data.

💵📉 Broad U.S. dollar softness following the Fed meeting, improved global risk sentiment, and narrowing U.S.–Canada yield spreads provided strong support for CAD.

🛢 Firm oil prices near $58 further reinforced resilience given Canada’s export exposure, while expectations for Bank of Canada policy remained relatively steady, allowing the loonie to outperform even in the face of the largest monthly GDP decline in nearly three years.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇺🇸🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Slid to the 1.3680–1.3690 zone, marking a fresh 22-week low.

🇪🇺🇨🇦 EUR/CAD: Broke lower toward ~1.6125, holding below the 1.6150 area.

🇬🇧🇨🇦 GBP/CAD: Traded range-bound near ~1.8490 with a mild downside bias.

🇳🇿🇨🇦 NZD/CAD: Stabilized around ~0.7990, showing consolidation rather than reversal.

💵 USD – Dollar Weakens Despite Strong GDP as Rate-Cut Expectations Dominate

📉 The U.S. dollar softened even after Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 4.3%, as markets stayed focused on the Fed’s medium-term easing path rather than backward-looking growth strength.

📊📉 Weaker durable goods orders, softer consumer confidence, and mixed manufacturing signals offset the GDP beat, while Treasury yields failed to hold post-data gains.

⚠️ Ongoing political pressure around future Fed leadership and expectations for rate cuts into 2026 kept the dollar under pressure, with risk sentiment improving into year-end and encouraging broader USD selling, particularly against European currencies and the franc.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

💵 USDX: Extended losses toward 97.88, holding near session lows despite the GDP surprise.

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Rebounded toward 1.1790, sustaining higher lows on continued USD weakness.

🇺🇸🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Drifted lower toward 0.7875 amid safe-haven CHF demand.

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Slid toward 156.20 as narrowing rate differentials weighed on the pair.

🗓 WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR – DECEMBER 25

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🎄 Bank Holiday

• 🇨🇭CHF
• 🇪🇺 EUR: French Bank Holiday
• 🇪🇺 EUR: German Bank Holiday
• 🇪🇺 EUR: Italian Bank Holiday
• 🇬🇧 GBP
• 🇨🇦 CAD
• 🇺🇸 USD
• 🇳🇿 NZD
• 🇦🇺 AUD

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💡 Trader Tip:

With multiple global bank holidays, expect thin liquidity, slower momentum, and higher risk of false breakouts. Avoid overtrading, reduce position size, and prioritize key technical levels rather than chasing moves. Liquidity and volatility are expected to normalize after the holiday period.

🗓 UPCOMING ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO LOOK OUT FOR – DECEMBER 26

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🇯🇵 JPY

• Unemployment Rate (Nov): Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.6%
• Retail Sales YoY (Nov): Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 1.7%
• Industrial Production MoM (Prel, Nov): Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: 1.5%
• Retail Sales MoM (Nov): Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.6%

This data set provides a broad snapshot of Japan’s labour market, consumer demand, and industrial momentum. Weak retail sales or industrial production would reinforce concerns about domestic demand, while resilience could strengthen expectations for continued BoJ policy normalization.

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💡 Trader Tip:

With multiple high-impact JPY releases clustered in a thin post-holiday session, expect volatility spikes in JPY pairs, particularly USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and EUR/JPY. Avoid chasing initial moves—wait for confirmation after the full data set is released.

🔔 DAILY MARKET DIGEST:

Gold Flirts With Records as Policy Divergence and Year-End Liquidity Drive Uneven FX Moves 🥇🔀🔚

🎄 Markets closed the holiday-shortened session with a clear theme: powerful trends remain intact, but thin liquidity is amplifying consolidation and selective profit-taking.

🥇 Gold eased marginally after printing fresh all-time highs, yet remains firmly underpinned by Fed rate-cut expectations, geopolitical risk, and strong structural demand.

💴 In FX, USD/JPY pulled back but held above critical support as intervention warnings and hawkish Bank of Japan signals lifted the yen, capping upside.

🇦🇺 Meanwhile, the Australian dollar stood out as a top performer, reaching 14-month highs as RBA hike bets for early 2026 contrasted sharply with a softening US dollar outlook.

🛢 Crude oil traded sideways, balancing geopolitical supply risks against oversupply concerns.

🇯🇵 With momentum stretched in some assets and volatility compressed elsewhere, the report highlights where consolidation could resolve into the next major move as markets head into year-end positioning and key Japanese data.

📉📈 DAILY MARKET PULSE:

💵💴USD/JPY: 155.96 — Extends its pullback for a third session as intervention warnings and hawkish BoJ signals lift the yen, while the broader bullish structure remains intact below 158.30 resistance.

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: 0.6704 — Pushes higher for a third straight day after breaking 0.6685 resistance, with RBA hike bets and USD softness driving breakout momentum.

🥇 XAU/USD: 4,479 — Eases slightly after a three-day surge as profit-taking emerges in thin holiday trade, though price continues to hover below the key 4,500 psychological level.

🛢 USOIL: 58.39 — Trades marginally lower after a three-day rally as geopolitical supply risks offset oversupply concerns, keeping focus on the 60.10 resistance zone.

🇫🇷4️⃣0️⃣ FRA40: 8,125 — Closes near flat in subdued Christmas Eve trade as luxury stocks support the index, with 8,125 now acting as a key technical pivot.

🇺🇸3️⃣0️⃣ US30: 48,699 — Rallies for a fourth consecutive session to fresh record highs as resilient US data and Santa-rally optimism push price toward the 49,000 psychological level.

𝐙🔐 ZEC/USD: 445.66 — Rebounds sharply after three sessions of losses, surging toward 455.90 resistance as dip-buying returns to the privacy-coin space.

🔵∴ ADA/USD: 0.3560 — Slides for a second session as sellers defend the $0.36 area, leaving 0.3520 as the next major support despite longer-term ecosystem optimism.

👟✔️ NKE: 60.00 — Jumps nearly 5% as insider buying by Apple CEO Tim Cook boosts confidence, with bulls now testing the $60.00 resistance zone.

🅾️ ORCL: 197.49 — Advances as AI-linked cloud optimism resurfaces, with price pressing into the 197.00 resistance area despite ongoing concerns over margins and cash burn.

💵USD – Dollar Index Ends Little Changed as Bearish Sentiment Persists

📉 The dollar ended little changed after sliding to a fresh 2.75-month low, with macro strength failing to shift broader bearish sentiment.

📊 Despite robust Q3 GDP growth (+4.3%) and lower-than-expected jobless claims (214K vs 226K), the USD struggled to sustain gains as markets stayed focused on longer-term Fed rate-cut expectations for 2026, political pressure on Fed independence, and expanding liquidity through Treasury bill purchases.

🎄🔇Thin, holiday-shortened trading muted volatility, leaving price action choppy and reinforcing the view that recent USD stabilization reflects consolidation rather than a meaningful trend reversal.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

💵 USDX: Consolidated near 97.95 after printing a 2.75-month low around 97.75.

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Stabilised near 1.1778 as USD weakness faded into consolidation.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: Eased back toward 1.3500, showing only mild USD recovery.

🇳🇿🇺🇸 NZD/USD: Held firm near 0.5840–0.5850, supported by ongoing USD softness.

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: Remained underpinned near 0.6705 amid broad USD underperformance.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Drifted lower toward 1.3670, confirming pressure against commodity FX.

🇺🇸🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Rebound attempts stalled near 0.7880, signaling corrective strength only.