🗓 UPCOMING ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO LOOK OUT FOR – DECEMBER 23

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🇦🇺 AUD

• RBA Meeting Minutes: Time - 02:30 CAT

The RBA meeting minutes will be scrutinised for signals on inflation persistence, labour market tightness, and the Board’s comfort with maintaining restrictive policy. Any resistance to near-term easing could support AUD, while a cautious or growth-focused tone may keep pressure on the currency.

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🇨🇦 CAD

• GDP MoM (Oct): Forecast: -0.4% | Previous: 0.2%

Monthly GDP is a key gauge of economic momentum and a direct input into Bank of Canada policy expectations. A contraction would reinforce slowdown concerns and weigh on CAD, while a surprise expansion could provide short-term support.

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🇺🇸 USD

• Durable Goods Orders MoM (Oct): Forecast: -0.9% | Previous: 0.5%
• GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Estimate, Q3): Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.8%
• Industrial Production MoM (Nov): Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: —
• Industrial Production MoM (Oct): Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec): Forecast: -4 | Previous: -15
• CB Consumer Confidence (Dec): Forecast: 89.0 | Previous: 88.7

This heavy US data cluster will give markets a broad read on growth momentum, manufacturing activity, and consumer sentiment heading into year-end. Weakness across durable goods, industrial output, and confidence would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, pressuring the USD. Conversely, upside surprises—especially in GDP revisions or consumer confidence—could help stabilise the dollar after recent softness.

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💡 Trader Tip:

With multiple high-impact releases clustered in the US session, expect volatility spikes between 15:30–17:00 CAT. Avoid reacting to a single headline—look for confirmation across GDP, Industrial Production, and Consumer Confidence. Key pairs to monitor include EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/USD. Keep position sizes controlled and trade confirmed moves only.

🇳🇿 NZD – New Zealand Dollar Rebounds from Two-Week Low as Risk Sentiment Improves

📈 The New Zealand dollar staged a modest rebound from a two-week low as global risk sentiment improved and equity markets held a positive tone.

🗣️ Support also came from the RBNZ’s restrictive bias, with policymakers signaling rates are likely to remain unchanged for an extended period if conditions evolve as expected.

⛔️ However, upside momentum stayed limited despite stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP, as markets trimmed future rate-hike expectations and viewed the recovery as narrow and primary-sector driven.

🌎⚠️💵 Ongoing geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. dollar demand continued to cap gains in risk-sensitive currencies, keeping NZD advances measured.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇳🇿🇺🇸 NZD/USD: Rebounded toward ~0.5790 from the 0.5735 low, though momentum remains fragile.

🇬🇧🇳🇿 GBP/NZD: Drifted lower toward ~2.3190 on relative NZD stabilization.

🇳🇿🇯🇵 NZD/JPY: Advanced toward ~91.00, supported by continued JPY weakness.

🇦🇺🇳🇿 AUD/NZD: Stayed heavy near ~1.1470 ahead of RBA minutes.

🇳🇿🇨🇦 NZD/CAD: Held around ~0.7965–0.7970 as NZD resilience offset cautious CAD sentiment.

🔔 DAILY MARKET DIGEST:

Dollar Slips, Gold Soars, and Key Breakouts Loom as Markets Brace for Heavy U.S. Data 💵🥇💥🇺🇸📊

🛠💵🥇 Markets opened the week with a clear risk-adjustment theme as the U.S. dollar slid toward multi-year lows on entrenched expectations of Federal Reserve easing into 2026, while gold surged into price discovery above $4,400 on a powerful mix of Fed cut bets and escalating geopolitical risks.

🇪🇺🇳🇿 EUR/USD and NZD/USD remain technically constructive but are compressing below key resistance zones, signalling that directional breakouts may be imminent as volatility tightens.

🛢 In commodities, crude oil is being pulled in two directions—supported by geopolitical supply risks linked to Venezuela and Russia-Ukraine, yet capped by lingering oversupply concerns into Q1.

🔜 The macro backdrop now shifts firmly toward a data-heavy U.S. session, where GDP revisions, durable goods, industrial production, and consumer confidence will test whether recent USD weakness deepens or stabilises.

🎯 With year-end liquidity thinning and major levels in focus across FX and commodities, traders are entering a potentially decisive phase where confirmation—or failure—could set the tone into early 2026.

📉📈 DAILY MARKET PULSE:

🇳🇿🇺🇸 NZD/USD: 0.5793 — The Kiwi rebounds from a two-week low, but the recovery is stalling just below 0.5815 resistance as momentum cools.

💶💵 EUR/USD: 1.1758 — Bulls remain in control, but price is still capped under the 1.1870 resistance zone as the USD stays pressured.

🥇 XAU/USD: 4,443 — Gold prints fresh record highs after clearing the 4,400 psychological level, with safe-haven demand and rate-cut bets driving upside.

🛢 USOIL: 57.94 — Crude extends a second-session climb, but price is still battling to break cleanly above the 58.00 resistance area.

🇺🇸1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ NAS100: 25,475 — Risk appetite firms as AI-led tech strength drives a holiday-week rebound, with 25,815 the next key resistance.

🇭🇰5️⃣0️⃣ HK50: 25,847 — The Hang Seng pushes higher on improving sentiment and liquidity support, keeping 26,230 as the next upside checkpoint.

🟣⬡ LINK/USD: 12.5750 — LINK consolidates after a breakout attempt, with accumulation chatter supporting a push toward 14.5270 resistance.

🔵∴ ADA/USD: 0.370660 — ADA steadies after a brief pullback, while 0.3860 remains the key level bulls need to reclaim.

🅾️ ORCL: 198.38 — Oracle extends gains for a third consecutive session as TikTok U.S. joint venture headlines lift the stock, with 197.00 now the level to hold for continuation.

📱 NFLX: 93.23 — Netflix dips despite deal momentum, with price leaning on 92.71 as the next support that can’t break.

💶 EUR – ECB Signals Prolonged Policy Pause, Supporting Euro Into Holiday Week

📈 The euro held firm after the ECB kept rates unchanged and reinforced a message of policy stability, signaling that borrowing costs are likely to remain steady for an extended period.

💵 With the U.S. dollar softening on renewed Fed cut expectations and lingering political and fiscal uncertainty, rate-divergence dynamics continue to favor the euro.

🎄 However, holiday-thinned liquidity has kept price action choppy, limiting follow-through across EUR crosses despite the supportive policy backdrop.

🗣️ Overall, ECB guidance reduces near-term rate-cut pricing for the Eurozone, providing a tailwind for EUR while leaving markets largely range-bound into year-end conditions.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Held firm near ~1.1765, staying above 1.1750 on ECB stability and softer USD.

🇪🇺🇨🇦 EUR/CAD: Hovered around ~1.6170 as oil-supported CAD capped upside.

🇪🇺🇨🇭 EUR/CHF: Edged higher toward ~0.9315, showing mild EUR resilience despite CHF risk sensitivity.

🇪🇺🇬🇧 EUR/GBP: Dipped toward ~0.8726 before rebounding to ~0.8735 in choppy trade.

🇪🇺🇯🇵 EUR/JPY: Traded flat near ~184.59 as ECB support offset JPY safe-haven dynamics.

💵 USD – Dollar Slides Toward Multi-Year Lows on Fed Easing Expectations

↘️ The U.S. dollar weakened broadly as markets leaned further into expectations of a prolonged Federal Reserve easing cycle extending into 2026.

💢 Softer inflation trends, cooling labor-market signals, and mounting political pressure for lower borrowing costs weighed on sentiment, while thin year-end liquidity amplified downside moves.

📉 The Dollar Index slid toward the 98.20–98.30 area, putting it on track for its steepest annual decline since 2017.

🗣️ While Fed officials maintained a cautious tone and signaled comfort with pausing policy, markets continue to price multiple cuts ahead, leaving the USD vulnerable—particularly against currencies backed by more stable or diverging policy paths.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

💵 USDX: Extended losses toward 98.20–98.30, confirming broad-based USD weakness.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: Held firm near 1.3460, tracking dollar softness as yield spreads stabilized.

🇺🇸🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Slid below 0.7920 on defensive CHF inflows and falling U.S. real yields.

🇺🇸🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Drifted lower toward 1.3750 as firmer oil prices supported CAD.

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Dropped toward 156.90 on yen strength following BoJ tightening signals and renewed intervention rhetoric.

🗓 UPCOMING ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO LOOK OUT FOR – DECEMBER 24

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🇲🇽 MXN

• Unemployment Rate: Forecast 2.8% | Previous 2.6%

Mexico’s unemployment rate is a key gauge of domestic labour market health. A rising unemployment rate signals cooling economic momentum, which can weigh on MXN sentiment, especially against a still-resilient USD backdrop.

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🇺🇸 USD

• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 226K | Previous 224K

Initial Jobless Claims are a high-frequency indicator of US labour market conditions. A sustained rise in claims would reinforce expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, while stable or lower readings could help the USD stabilize after recent volatility.

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💡 Trader Tip:

With both MXN labour data and US jobless claims due, expect volatility in USD/MXN and broader USD pairs. Keep positions light ahead of the releases, watch for confirmation after the data, and avoid chasing the first move if spreads widen.

💴 JPY – Yen Strengthens as Japan Issues Strongest Intervention Warning Yet

🗣️⚠️ The yen rebounded as Japanese authorities delivered their clearest intervention warning so far, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stating Japan has a “free hand” to counter speculative and one-sided FX moves.

📈 The move triggered broad JPY short-covering, helping the currency recover from multi-month lows despite lingering doubts after the BoJ’s recent hike to 0.75% failed to provide lasting support amid a cautious tightening outlook.

💵📉 A softer U.S. dollar—driven by markets pricing multiple Fed cuts in 2026—amplified yen gains across major crosses.

📊 While intervention rhetoric can stabilize JPY in the near term, sustained strength likely hinges on clearer BoJ tightening signals and U.S. yield dynamics.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Fell from ~157.00 toward 155.60 before rebounding near 156.50 as intervention fears capped upside.

🇪🇺🇯🇵 EUR/JPY: Corrected from ~184.70 to ~183.40, then recovered toward ~184.20 on profit-taking and short-covering.

🇬🇧🇯🇵 GBP/JPY: Pulled back from ~211.40 to ~210.30 before rebounding toward ~211.10.

🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUD/JPY: Slipped from ~104.60 to ~103.90, then recovered back toward ~104.60.

🇨🇦🇯🇵 CAD/JPY: Stabilized near 114.00–114.20 as yen demand picked up late session.

🇦🇺 AUD – Australian Dollar Hits 13-Week High as RBA Signals Inflation Risks

📈 The Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since September as hawkish signals from the RBA, firmer commodity prices, and a softer U.S. dollar combined to lift AUD sentiment.

🗣️ Minutes from the RBA’s December meeting revealed an active debate over whether policy remains sufficiently restrictive, with policymakers increasingly concerned that inflation pressures could prove persistent.

🔮↗️ Markets have responded by bringing forward expectations for a potential rate hike, now pricing the possibility as early as February 2026 and fully by mid-2026.

📊 While risk-on flows and carry demand continue to favor AUD, the durability of the rally will hinge on upcoming inflation data to confirm whether sticky price pressures justify a tightening path.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD: Advanced toward the 0.6700 area, marking a 13-week high before consolidating below 2025 resistance.

🇪🇺🇦🇺 EUR/AUD: Slid toward 1.7600–1.7630 on clear AUD outperformance.

🇬🇧🇦🇺 GBP/AUD: Drifted lower toward 2.0160–2.0200 as AUD strength dominated.

🇦🇺🇯🇵 AUD/JPY: Eased from a 17-month high near 104.60 toward 104.50 amid intervention chatter.

🇦🇺🇨🇦 AUD/CAD: Pulled back toward 0.9160 as CAD stabilized with oil prices.

🇦🇺🇳🇿 AUD/NZD: Consolidated around 1.1470–1.1475, supported by shared risk-on and commodity flows.

🔔 DAILY MARKET DIGEST:

Gold Breaks Records as USD Slumps and Geopolitical Risks Redefine Year-End Market Dynamics 🥇💵🌎⚠️

🇺🇸🥇 Markets moved decisively into risk-repricing mode as strong U.S. growth data failed to rescue the dollar, while gold surged to fresh record highs on entrenched Fed cut expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.

🥇 XAU/USD remained the standout performer, consolidating just below the $4,500 handle amid profit-taking but retaining a clear bullish macro bias.

💵💷💴 In FX, broad USD weakness dominated flows, lifting GBP/USD above 1.35 and driving USD/JPY lower as Japan issued its strongest intervention warning yet.

🛢 Oil markets brushed off a bearish U.S. inventory build, with USOIL holding firm above $58 as Venezuela sanctions and Russia-Ukraine risks kept supply fears elevated.

🇦🇺🇨🇦 Meanwhile, AUD strength accelerated on hawkish RBA signals, and CAD advanced despite weak GDP, underscoring how external drivers and yield expectations are overpowering local data into thin, year-end liquidity.

📉📈 DAILY MARKET PULSE:

💵💴 USD/JPY: 156.21 — Slides for a second session after breaking 156.80 support as Japan’s strongest intervention warning yet lifts the yen, while price still holds above key support with a broader bullish bias.

💷💵 GBP/USD: 1.3515 — Breaks above 1.35 and extends gains for a second day as rate-cut expectations keep the dollar on the back foot, with bullish momentum accelerating beyond 1.3485.

🥇 XAU/USD: 4,483 — Posts another record day and keeps pressing toward 4,500 as Fed cut bets and geopolitical risks drive safe-haven flows, even as momentum signals turn overbought.

🛢 USOIL: 58.46 — Rises for a third straight session as traders weigh rising inventories against intensifying geopolitical risks, keeping 58.00 as the key level in focus.

🇭🇰5️⃣0️⃣ HK50: 25,797 — Erases early gains and snaps a four-day winning streak as tech weakness offsets broader optimism, with 26,230 the next major resistance.

🇫🇷4️⃣0️⃣ FRA40: 8,120 — Slips for a second session as holiday caution and French fiscal uncertainty cap risk appetite, with 8,125 acting as a key near-term support.

🔵∴ ADA/USD: 0.36294 — Remains under pressure as risk appetite cools across altcoins, leaving 0.3520 as the next major support if sellers stay in control.

𝐙🔐 ZEC/USD: 417.62 — Extends losses for a third session after a sharp liquidation-driven pullback, keeping 455.90 as the key resistance bulls must reclaim.

👁‍🗨🟩 NVDA: 189.21 — Rallies for a fourth session after breaking 185.55 resistance as optimism builds around potential AI-chip shipments to China.

📱 AMZN: 232.14 — Grinds higher for a fourth session as price leans into 231.80 resistance while investors digest Zoox’s fleet-wide software recall update.

💷 GBP – Sterling Breaks Above 1.35 as Broad Dollar Weakness Dominates

📈 Sterling surged to a fresh 12-week high above 1.35, driven primarily by broad U.S. dollar weakness as markets priced in at least two Fed rate cuts in 2026 and U.S. yields fell.

✂️🗳 Domestic factors played a secondary role: while the BoE delivered a 25 bps cut to 3.75%, a narrow 5–4 vote and guidance favoring slower easing helped prevent GBP softness.

📊↗️ UK GDP grew 0.1% QoQ, in line with expectations, providing a neutral backdrop as thin, holiday-shortened liquidity amplified USD-driven moves across GBP pairs.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇬🇧🇺🇸 GBP/USD: Held above 1.3500, firming near 1.3515 with shallow pullbacks on sustained USD selling.

🇪🇺🇬🇧 EUR/GBP: Slid toward 0.8716 before consolidating near 0.8726, reflecting relative GBP outperformance.

🇬🇧🇨🇦 GBP/CAD: Rebounded from ~1.8465 to reclaim the 1.8500 area amid choppy, upward-biased trade.

🇬🇧🇨🇭 GBP/CHF: Traded sideways near 1.0635 after an early dip toward 1.0620 as CHF capped gains.

🇬🇧🇳🇿 GBP/NZD: Fell toward ~2.3100, with rebounds capped, showing GBP strength was most pronounced versus USD.

🇨🇦 CAD – Canadian Dollar Hits Near Five-Month High Despite GDP Miss

📈 The Canadian dollar climbed to near a five-month high despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in October GDP, as external drivers outweighed weak domestic data.

💵📉 Broad U.S. dollar softness following the Fed meeting, improved global risk sentiment, and narrowing U.S.–Canada yield spreads provided strong support for CAD.

🛢 Firm oil prices near $58 further reinforced resilience given Canada’s export exposure, while expectations for Bank of Canada policy remained relatively steady, allowing the loonie to outperform even in the face of the largest monthly GDP decline in nearly three years.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

🇺🇸🇨🇦 USD/CAD: Slid to the 1.3680–1.3690 zone, marking a fresh 22-week low.

🇪🇺🇨🇦 EUR/CAD: Broke lower toward ~1.6125, holding below the 1.6150 area.

🇬🇧🇨🇦 GBP/CAD: Traded range-bound near ~1.8490 with a mild downside bias.

🇳🇿🇨🇦 NZD/CAD: Stabilized around ~0.7990, showing consolidation rather than reversal.

💵 USD – Dollar Weakens Despite Strong GDP as Rate-Cut Expectations Dominate

📉 The U.S. dollar softened even after Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 4.3%, as markets stayed focused on the Fed’s medium-term easing path rather than backward-looking growth strength.

📊📉 Weaker durable goods orders, softer consumer confidence, and mixed manufacturing signals offset the GDP beat, while Treasury yields failed to hold post-data gains.

⚠️ Ongoing political pressure around future Fed leadership and expectations for rate cuts into 2026 kept the dollar under pressure, with risk sentiment improving into year-end and encouraging broader USD selling, particularly against European currencies and the franc.

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💱 Impacted pairs:

💵 USDX: Extended losses toward 97.88, holding near session lows despite the GDP surprise.

🇪🇺🇺🇸 EUR/USD: Rebounded toward 1.1790, sustaining higher lows on continued USD weakness.

🇺🇸🇨🇭 USD/CHF: Drifted lower toward 0.7875 amid safe-haven CHF demand.

🇺🇸🇯🇵 USD/JPY: Slid toward 156.20 as narrowing rate differentials weighed on the pair.