Not a tip but Sengal are 2.9 to reach the round of 16 but best priced at 2.45 to qualify vs Belgium.

Not a price ‘error’ but just a discrepancy due to margins if anyone fancies it 👍

🌍 World Cup
🏆 To Reach the Quarter-Finals

🇨🇦 Canada To Reach the Quarter-Finals @ 5.50
📚 Kambi
💰 Stake: 0.5u

OR

🇨🇦 Canada To Reach the Quarter-Finals @ 18c BUY LIMIT
📚 Polymarket
💰 Stake: 0.5u

Chance: 21.65% (4.62/21.6c)

Been very impressed with the Canadians, slow start and could have very well been down to home nation pressure but Mathday 2 was great and even the matchday 3 loss vs 🇨🇭significant improvements whilst utilising their squad with just two outfielders playing less than 45 minutes so far.

Lucky for us no long waiting as their first RO32 match is tonight vs 🇿🇦

nevermind if you saw that message its been pulled 💔

a few extra out-rights coming, most of them are 'safe' ones you can potentially acca together and then one longshot based on team news

not much value out there the books done a great job of pricing and not a lot of extra 'specials' been added either

🌍 World Cup
⚽️ Portugal Tournament Goals Scored

🇵🇹 Portugal Over 8.5 Tournament Goals @ 1.80
📚 Paddy Power / Sky Bet
💰 Stake: 1u

Fair odds: 1.62

Currently on 6 goals, barring a calamitous RO32 exit vs Croatia this should come in within their next 2 games.

⸻

🌍 World Cup
⚽️ Germany Tournament Goals Scored

🇩🇪 Germany Over 13.5 Tournament Goals @ 1.80
📚 Paddy Power / Sky Bet
💰 Stake: 1u

Fair odds: 1.68

4 more goals needed to achieve this with Paraguay next and then a very tasty RO16 clash vs France or Sweden. As an alternative, Over 14.5 @ 2.40 is also nice as if they do get past France then it 100% comes in.

⸻

🌍 World Cup
🏆 To Reach The Semi Final

🇦🇷 Argentina To Reach The Semi Final @ 2.10
📚 BetVictor
💰 Stake: 1u

Fair odds: 1.73

Given the teams they have to play before this anything less than a Semi-Final would be a failure for the World Champs. Price a little bit shorter than I would have liked but still good enough to take.

⸻

🌍 World Cup
🏆 To Reach the Quarter-Finals

🇸🇳 Senegal To Reach the Quarter-Finals @ 7.00
📚 Bet365
💰 Stake: 0.25u

Fair odds: 5.41

I think they’re 100% capable of getting past Belgium and that sets them up with a RO16 vs the hosts USA or against Bosnia, a team who I genuinely don’t know how they’ve made it this far.

⸻

🌍 World Cup
⚽️ South Africa Top Team Goalscorer

🇿🇦 Evidence Makgopa Top South Africa Goalscorer @ 34.00
📚 BetVictor
💰 Stake: 0.2u

Fair odds: 27.21

South Africa currently have 2 players joint on 1 goal meaning a single goal for Makgopa vs Canada makes this a 3-way dead heat and puts it around 11.30 odds. A brace and it’s very likely a winner.

all the stakes were the same edited them now

🏟 France vs Sweden
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 30 Jun 26 21:00
📍 MetLife Stadium - New York / New Jersey
🌤 Open-air

🎯 Sweden Over 3.5 Shots on Target @ 3.25 (Bet365)
💰 Stake: 0.5u

|  O0.5 |  O0.5 |  O2.5 |  O4.5 |  O6.5 |
| 97.8% | 97.8% | 73.7% | 33.9% |  9.4% |
|  1.02 |  1.02 |  1.36 |  2.95 | 10.59 |

✈️ Sweden Projected (Last 10): 3.84
📊 Team Average: 4.80
🕒 Last 10 For: 5, 8, 7, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 3, 4
🕒 Opponent Against: 4, 0, 2, 2, 3, 5, 4, 1, 0, 2

🔗 Bet365

just the 0.5u single on 4+ SOTs

🏟 Mexico vs Ecuador
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 01 Jul 26 01:00
📍 Estadio Azteca - Mexico City
🌤 Partial roof, open-air
⛈ Thunderstorm expected.

⚔️ Mexico Under 17.5 Tackles @ 1.909 (Bet365)
💰 Stake: 0.75u

| U13.5 | U15.5 | U17.5 | U19.5 | U21.5 |
| 25.5% | 44.2% | 63.6% | 79.4% | 90.0% |
|  3.93 |  2.26 |  1.57 |  1.26 |  1.11 |

🏠 Mexico Projected (Last 10): 16.25
📊 Team Average: 13.80
🕒 Last 10 For: 12, 14, 10, 9, 10, 15, 20, 19, 10, 19
🕒 Opponent Against: 20, 17, 15, 16, 31, 17, 15, 13, 20, 23

🔗 Bet365

🏟 USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
⚖️ 🟡 71.19 vs 🟠 39.98
🌍 Cup
⏰ 2 Jul 01:00
📍 Levi's Stadium - San Francisco Bay Area
🌤 Open-air

🙆‍♂️ Bosnia and Herzegovina O 22.5 Throw-ins @ 4
💰 Stake: 0.5u

O ⬆️ | ⚖️ Chance: 25.6% | 🖥 Model Odds: 3.91
U ⬇️ | ⚖️ Chance: 74.4% | 🖥 Model Odds: 1.34

✈️ Bosnia and Herzegovina Projected: 19.69
📊 Team Average: 17.88
🕒 Last 8 For: 12, 8, 26, 18, 20, 31, 10, 18
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: 28, 22, 17, 25, 24, 24, 12, 17, 21, 25

🏟 Spain vs Austria
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 02 Jul 26 19:00
📍 SoFi Stadium - Los Angeles
🌤 Fixed canopy, passive cooling (open-air)

We're already heavy on the Austria shots so we're starting the ladder at the 3.4 line.

Spain have only been hit for double digits shots twice in their last 10 games and banking on this game being the 3rd time

🔫 Austria O 8.5 Team Shots @ 3.4
⚖️ Chance: 41.4% | 🖥 Model Odds: 2.42
💰 Stake: 0.25u

🔫 Austria O 9.5 Team Shots @ 4.33
⚖️ Chance: 28.9% | 🖥 Model Odds: 3.46
💰 Stake: 0.15u

🔫 Austria O 10.5 Team Shots @ 6.00
⚖️ Chance: 18.9% | 🖥 Model Odds: 5.30
💰 Stake: 0.15u

|  O4.5 |  O6.5 |  O8.5 | O10.5 | O12.5 |
| 90.3% | 69.2% | 41.4% | 18.9% |  6.6% |
|  1.11 |  1.45 |  2.42 |  5.30 | 15.16 |

✈️ Austria Projected (Last 10): 8.04
📊 Team Average: 10.20
🕒 Last 10 For: 10, 6, 11, 9, 5, 11, 10, 12, 3, 25
🕒 Opponent Against: 5, 3, 6, 10, 3, 4, 2, 13, 6, 3

🔗 Bet365

🏟 England vs Congo DR
⚖️ 🔥 97.5 vs 🟠 49.76
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 1 Jul 17:00
📍 Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta
💾 Retractable roof, fully climate-controlled

🦵 O 31.5 Free Kicks @ 4.0
⚖️ Chance: 30.6% | 🖥 Model Odds: 3.26

| O25.5 | O28.5 | O31.5 | O34.5 | O37.5 |
| 73.1% | 51.8% | 30.6% | 14.9% |  6.0% |
|  1.37 |  1.93 |  3.26 |  6.70 | 16.76 |

📊 Match Projected: 28.91
🏠 England Match Totals:
37, 42, 23, 31, 26, 20, 22, 22, 27, 17
✈️ DR Congo Match Totals:
26, 35, 24, 36, 17, 37, 44, 28, 33

https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B1/C1/D8/E197030065/F3/I99/

Fun one to take us through till Thursday, some games have been skipped because of other bets already taken or just not much I liked whilst others are yet to have props priced up yet. Good luck if tailing 🤞

🌍 World Cup
⏰ 29 Jun - 1 July

📚 World Cup RO32 7-Fold @ 8.94
💰 Stake: 0.5u

(If odds are too short for your liking each selection you can +/- 1 on them)

Today 🗓

18:00 🇧🇷 Brazil vs Japan 🇯🇵
⭐️ Japan Under 18.5 Tackles @ 1.44

21:30 🇩🇪 Germany vs Paraguay 🇵🇾
⭐️ Germany Over 0.5 Cards @ 1.4

Tuesday 30 June 📅

02:00 🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Morocco 🇲🇦
⭐️ Over 3.5 2nd Half Corners @ 1.33

18:00 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast vs Norway 🇳🇴
⭐️ Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Corners @ 1.4

22:00 🇫🇷 France vs Sweden 🇸🇪
⭐️Sweden Under 20.5 Throw Ins @ 1.33

Wednesday 1 July 📅

02:00 🇲🇽 Mexico vs Ecuador 🇪🇨
⭐️ Under 39.5 Tackles @ 1.4

21:00 🇧🇪 Belgium vs Senegal 🇸🇳
⭐️ Belgium Over 3.5 Corners @ 1.33

🔗 Add To Bet Slip

I might do a player version too if I can be bothered but also not sure I can stress with players not starting etc.

I missed yesterday which means we need to now cancel the whole thing and not carry it on anymore sorry

Jks

two outrights settled so far in Netherlands winning the group ✅ and Scotland to qualify...❌

One extra outright added in todays list 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

🇧🇷🇯🇵 Brazil vs Japan (18:00)
📌 William Hill - Brazil To Score First @ 2.00
📌 Virgin Bet - Vinicius Jr To Score or Assist @ 2.62
📌 Paddy Power - Matheus Cunha 1+ Shot On Target Including Woodwork & To Be Fouled 2+ Times @ 3.00
📌 Betfair Sportsbook - Matheus Cunha 1+ Shot On Target @ 2.00
📌 NetBet - BTTS @ 2.20
📌 Sky Bet - Vinicius Jr 2+ Goals @ 13.00
📌 RightBet/442 - Brazil To Win & BTTS Yes @ 4.60

🇳🇱🇲🇦 Netherlands vs Morocco (02:00)
📌 Sky Bet - Brian Brobbey 1+ Shot On Target @ 2.00

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England To Win The World Cup - Grosvenor @ 11.00

🏟 Argentina vs Cape Verde
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 03 Jul 26 22:00
📍 Hard Rock Stadium - Miami
🌤 Canopy over seats, open-air pitch
⛈ Thunderstorm expected.

⚔️ Cape Verde Under 18.5 Tackles @ 1.800 (Bet365)
💰 Stake: 2u

| U14.5 | U16.5 | U18.5 | U20.5 | U22.5 |
| 57.6% | 76.0% | 88.5% | 95.4% | 98.4% |
|  1.74 |  1.32 |  1.13 |  1.05 |  1.02 |

✈️ Cape Verde Projected (Last 10): 13.95
📊 Team Average: 14.80
🕒 Last 10 For: 16, 16, 17, 14, 11
🕒 Opponent Against: 16, 14, 16, 5, 20, 10, 15, 11, 11, 13

🔗 Bet365

Taking this and going to bed. Yes it happened in their last game and its VERY unlikely to happeen again but at this price we take it. Good luck if tailing 🤞

📚 Skybet/Betfair/PaddyPower
💰 Stake: 0.2u

Combined Probability = 3.23% chance or 30.94 odds

🙆‍♂️ Morocco O 19.5 Team Throw-ins

⚖️ Chance: 26.2% | 🖥 Model Odds: 3.82

| O11.5 | O15.5 | O19.5 | O23.5 | O27.5 |
| 91.5% | 62.7% | 26.2% |  6.3% |  0.9% |
|  1.09 |  1.60 |  3.82 | 15.98 |   -   |

✈️ Morocco Projected: 16.98
📊 Team Average: 18.56
🕒 Last 9 For: 25, 19, 13, 13, 13, 14, 11, 25, 34
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: 12, 22, 19, 21, 19, 16, 11, 13, 10, 11

🚷 Morocco O 3.5 Team Offsides

⚖️ Chance: 12.3% | 🖥 Model Odds: 8.10

|  O1.5 |  O2.5 |  O3.5 |  O4.5 |  O5.5 |
| 56.3% | 29.3% | 12.3% |  4.3% |  1.3% |
|  1.78 |  3.41 |  8.10 | 23.16 | 77.64 |

✈️ Morocco Projected: 1.89
📊 Team Average: 1.78
🕒 Last 9 For: 5, 0, 1, 1, 4, 1, 3, 1, 0
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: 2, 3, 0, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1

You can also take offsides inplay on 365 so if the Throw-Ins look good you can always hedge your postion taking under offsides on 365