odds dropped on 365 but still good on Sky/BF/Paddy

🏆 THE WORLD CUP STARTS TODAY! ⚽️

🔍 I've spent the last 72–128 hours scrolling through, copying & pasting all available boosts & specials across popular bookmakers.

📊 Ran them against:
• Betting exchanges
• Sharp bookmakers
• My own model

⚠️ Note: some selections contradict each other; aim is to identify which have a good chance of winning & are worth the punt.

📌 All selections are in the thread below, including a few with negative value but still worth considering! 🧵👇

247Bet

Scotland to reach the Round of 16
Odds: 3.75 | Prob: 27.30% | Edge: +2.37%

Betfred

Mexico, Colombia, Japan & Spain all to win their groups
Odds: 34.00 | Prob: 3.30% | Edge: +12.36%

Betgoodwin

England to reach the final
Odds: 5.00 | Prob: 23.64% | Edge: +18.20%

BetVictor

9+ England Goals In The Group Stage
Odds: 4.50 | Prob: 25.61% | Edge: +15.27%

Argentina To Reach Final, Brazil Eliminated In Quarter Final, Lionel Messi 3+ Goals Or Assists Combined
Odds: 37.00 | Prob: 2.76% | Edge: +2.07%

England To Win Tournament, Scotland To Reach Round Of 16, Harry Kane To Score 4+ Goals
Odds: 71.00 | Prob: 2.25% | Edge: +59.69%

Spain, France, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal and Germany to reach QF and Scotland and Japan to qualify from group
Odds: 101.00 | Prob: 1.15% | Edge: +16.21%

Spain To Win Tournament, England Eliminated Semi Final, Curaçao Not To Score A Goal
Odds: 111.00 | Prob: 2.00% | Edge: +121.88%

Coral

France, Spain, England & Argentina all to reach the QF
Odds: 11.00 | Prob: 10.32% | Edge: +13.52%

France/Spain/England/Brazil/Germany/Portugal/Argentina/Belgium to reach R16
Odds: 13.00 | Prob: 8.05% | Edge: +4.62%

Spain/France/England/Brazil/Argentina all to reach the QF
Odds: 21.00 | Prob: 5.18% | Edge: +8.82%

DaznBet

England to win all their group stage matches
Odds: 3.50 | Prob: 30.30% | Edge: +6.10%

England to win the World Cup
Odds: 11.00 | Prob: 10.23% | Edge: +12.58%

Harry Kane Tournament Top Goalscorer
Odds: 11.00 | Prob: 11.11% | Edge: +22.20%

Ladbrokes

Belgium & Portugal both to reach the QF
Odds: 6.00 | Prob: 19.60% | Edge: +17.59%

England to score under 10 goals & go out in the QF
Odds: 9.00 | Prob: 13.43% | Edge: +20.89%

Ladbrokes/Coral

Spain, France & Argentina all to reach the QF
Odds: 6.00 | Prob: 18.38% | Edge: +10.30%

NetBet

England to score 2+ goals in each group stage match
Odds: 4.33 | Prob: 29.85% | Edge: +29.23%

QuinnBet

England to score over 6.5 goals in group stages
Odds: 2.20 | Prob: 46.08% | Edge: +1.40%

Norway to win Group I
Odds: 4.33 | Prob: 23.77% | Edge: +2.92%

Raul Jimenez, Mexico’s top goalscorer
Odds: 4.50 | Prob: 26.18% | Edge: +17.80%

Scotland, Australia & New Zealand all to reach the elimination stage
Odds: 8.00 | Prob: 14.03% | Edge: +12.21%

Sky/Paddy

Any host nation to reach the final
Odds: 10.00 | Prob: 10.31% | Edge: +3.09%

🛑 (Negative EV)

BetVictor

1000+ Corners In The Tournament
Odds: 2.75 | Prob: 30.68% | Edge: -15.63%

England Exactly 9 Group Points, Scotland Exactly 0 Group Points
Odds: 51.00 | Prob: 1.66% | Edge: -15.26%

BoyleSports

England to lead at half time in all 3 group matches
Odds: 7.50 | Prob: 11.82% | Edge: -11.33%

QuinnBet

Uzbekistan, Panama & Iraq all to finish bottom of their groups
Odds: 3.70 | Prob: 20.99% | Edge: -22.35%

Starsports

Lamine Yamal, top Spain goalscorer
Odds: 4.00 | Prob: 20.04% | Edge: -19.84%

Was missing quite a few this is the full list now 😂

Betfred

Mexico, Colombia, Japan & Spain all to win their groups
Odds: 34.00 | Prob: 3.30% | Edge: +12.36%

💰0.1u

Coral

France, Spain, England & Argentina all to reach the QF
Odds: 11.00 | Prob: 10.32% | Edge: +13.52%

💰0.2u

QuinnBet

Raul Jimenez, Mexico’s top goalscorer
Odds: 4.50 | Prob: 26.18% | Edge: +17.80%

💰0.25u

Are the ones I'm on personally/tracking

Get ready for this

theres a LOT of boosts at the moment and I'll try my best to stay ontop of the ones worth backing 🤞

Most max £10 stakes but if you can get more on then good luck

🏟 Mexico vs South Africa
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 11 Jun 26 20:00

📚 Sky/Paddy/Betfair

Oswin Appollis To Create 2+ Shots @ 2.38
💰0.35u

Oswin Appollis To Create 3+ Shots @ 5
💰 0.15u

🪄🔫LAM Oswin Appollis (South Africa) vs Mexico - 2.25
📊 2, 1, 3✓, 2✓, 2✓, 1✓, 1✓, 3✓, 6✓, 4✓

|   1+  |   2+  |   3+  |   4+  |   5+  |
| 89.5% | 65.7% | 39.1% | 19.0% |  7.8% |
|  1.12 |  1.52 |  2.56 |  5.25 | 12.83 |

Probably my only player prop for this game but one I really like if South Africa can get into their groove Oswin will be key 🤞

Going to be running a fun tracked challenge across all 104 games of the tournament, and Simply going to call it 'The First' (Super creative)

We'll be back in the first player to score, first player to be booked, some games will also back the team to score/carded first too.

will be a flat 0.5 units staked on each game, so a total of 57 units total will be spent on this challenge.

Depending on the odds of each of the four selections will depend on whether the first goal scorer is an each way bet and how the stakes are split

📒 First Booked
Teboho Mokoena @ 12
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
💰 0.25u

⚽️ First To Score
Brian Gutierrez @ 11
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌
💰 0.25u

BOOM challenge gets off to the perfect start 🔥

Right boys if you're joining in for game #2 after seeing the first winner please understand we got 103 more games of this and we will 100% lost a lot so stake accordingly or your bank roll will be finished before the next winner lands 🙏

🥇⚽️ST Heung-Min Son (South Korea) @ 6.5 Unibet [@6.88 BF Exchange]
💰 0.15u
✅ = Scored First | ❌ = No:
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

|  Yes  |   No  |
| 15.5% | 84.5% |
|  6.44 |  1.18 |

📒🥇RB Vladimir Coufal (Czechia) @ 21 WilliamHill
💰 0.1u
✅ = Booked First | ❌ = No:
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

|  Yes  |   No  |
|  8.9% | 91.1% |
| 11.24 |  1.10 |

🥇⚽️ Czechia - First Team to Score @ 2.2 Skybet
💰 0.25u
🕒 Last 10 For: ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

|  Yes  |   No  |
| 55.0% | 45.0% |
|  1.82 |  2.22 |

Slightly contradictory here as we've got for Son first goal scorer and Czechia first goal. This isn't a mistake, Son the only player worth taking for first goalscorer at the current prices.

Coufal a HUGE price at 21 on WillHill/888 so playing the price thats the most value.

Again contradictory to that choice it would also make sense to take Korea to be booked first too as there is currently an insane stat that the team playing against Czechia has been booked first 9 times in their last 10 games, Kim Min Jae would be the Korea pick if I had to take one.

Gonna be a battle with these kick off times 😂

Will have some player props coming shortly

Main play for the night, was gonna do a full ladder but his pass lines have all gone up by like 5 so just going to take the top two lines

👤 Ladislav Krejci (Czechia)
🟢 7.81 Avg Rating
🧩 Position: CB (Alt: LCB)

🔄 Over 58.5 Passes @2.76
💰 Recommended stake: 0.35

🔄 Over 62.5 Passes @ 4
💰 Recommended stake: 0.15u

📆 Appearances (✓ = started): 10 (10) / 10
📊 Per Game (Last 10): -, -, 34✓, 90✓, 82✓, 44✓, 47✓, 40✓, 57✓, 81✓

🧩 CB's vs South Korea (Averaged):
40*,56*,67*,45*,45,48*,74*,68*,78* | 🔄 Per game: 52.10

One more I can't say no to at this price

👤 Pavel Sulc (Czechia)
🟡 7.22 Avg Rating
🧩 Position: AM (Alt: LAM, LM)

🔫 Over 1.5 Shots @ 1.9 (Ladbrokes/Coral)
🖥 Model Odds: 1.68 (60% chance)
💰 Recommended stake: 1u

📆 Appearances (✓ = started): 10 (9) / 10
📊 Per Game (Last 10): -, 3✓, 2✓, 1✓, 2✓, -, 2✓, 2✓, 2✓, 4✓

|   1+  |   2+  |   3+  |   4+  |   5+  |
| 86.5% | 59.4% | 32.3% | 14.3% |  5.3% |
|  1.16 |  1.68 |  3.09 |  7.00 | 18.99 |

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