As my last post using the same logic to find value in Over/Under total goals and some potential ladders to.

Will not be taking all of these personally but will track the singles anyways.

🔒 = can be arbed
Fair odds in italic

1️⃣ Kane 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 5.25 | 4+ 1.31
• +60% EV line set far too low for a projected 5.25.
💰 0.75u

🪜 2+ @ 1.17 (F) 1.08
🪜 3+ @ 1.53 (F) 1.15
🪜 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.31
🪜 5+ @ 3.30 (F) 1.63
🪜 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.22
🪜 7+ @ 6.50 (365) 3.31

2️⃣ Mbappé 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) 🇫🇷 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 4.89 | 4+ 1.39
• +51% EV same as Kane, the 4+ is too short.
💰 0.75u

🪜 3+ @ 1.50 (F) 1.19
🪜 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.39
🪜 5+ @ 3.20 (F) 1.80
🪜 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.57
🪜 7+ @ 8.00 (365) 4.05

3️⃣ Lukaku 2+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) 🇧🇪 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 2.36 | 2+ 1.48
• +42% EV
💰 0.75u

🪜2+ @ 2.1 1.48
🪜3+ @ 4.2 2.33
🪜4+ @ 8.5 4.4

4️⃣ Haaland 4+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) 🇳🇴
• Proj. ⚽️: 3.82 | 4+ 1.84
• +36% EV underdog tag drags the line down.
💰 0.75u

🪜 3+ @ 1.67 (F) 1.38
🪜 4+ @ 2.50 (F) 1.84
🪜 5+ @ 4.00 (365) 2.8

5️⃣ Álvarez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83 (365) 🇦🇷
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.83 | Under 2.5 = 71.2% (1.40)
• +30% EV coming off an injury, may struggle to fire in time.
💰 0.75u

6️⃣ Fernandes 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) 🇵🇹 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.74 | 2+ = 51.9% (1.93)
• +25% EV
💰 0.5u

🪜 1+ @ 1.30 (F) 1.25
🪜 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 1.93
🪜 3+ @ 5 (F) 3.78

7️⃣ Oyarzabal 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) 🇪🇸 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 3.03 | 3+ = 58.7% (1.70)
• +7% EV model leans over; the 365 under is the arb hedge if you'd rather lock.
💰 0.5u

8️⃣ Ronaldo 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) 🇵🇹
• Proj. ⚽️: 3.33 | 3+ = 64.6% (1.55)
• +18% EV Flutter's 3+ is the model-aligned price.
💰 0.75u

🪜 2+ @ 1.29 (F) 1.22
🪜 3+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.55
🪜 4+ @ 2.80 (F) 2.27
🪜 5+ @ 5.00 (365) 3.82
🪜 6+ @ 10.00 (365) 7.36

9️⃣ Díaz 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) 🇨🇴
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.64 | 2+ = 49.0% (2.04)
• +18% EV
💰 0.5u

🪜 1+ @ 1.33 (F) 1.28
🪜 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 2.04
🪜 3+ @ 5 (F) 4.2

🔟 Messi 4+ Goals @ 2.3 (F) 🇦🇷
• Proj. ⚽️: 3.66 | 4+ = 51.0% (1.96)
• +17% EV
💰 0.5u

🪜 3+ @ 1.62 (F) 1.42
🪜 4+ @ 2.30 (F) 1.96
🪜 5+ @ 3.60 (F) 3.07
🪜 6+ @ 6.50 (365) 5.47

1️⃣1️⃣ Wirtz UNDER 1.5 @ 1.83 (365) 🇩🇪
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.28 | Under 1.5 = 63.0% (1.59)
• +15% EV
💰 0.75u

1️⃣2️⃣ Vinícius Jr 3+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) 🇧🇷
• Proj. ⚽️: 2.48 | 3+ = 45.9% (2.18)
• +15% EV
💰 0.5u

🪜 2+ @ 1.57 (F) 1.43
🪜 3+ @ 2.50 (F) 2.18
🪜 4+ @ 4.50 (F) 3.96

1️⃣3️⃣ Núñez 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) 🇺🇾
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.93 | 2+ = 57.2% (1.75)
• +14% EV evens on a projection just shy of 2.
💰 0.5u

🪜 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.75
🪜 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.17
🪜 4+ @ 8 (F) 7.09

1️⃣4️⃣ Raphinha 2+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) 🇧🇷 🔒
• Proj. ⚽️: 2.1 | 2+ = 61.7% (1.62)
• +13% EV set-piece + penalty taker.
💰 0.5u

🪜 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.62
🪜 3+ @ 3.40 (F) 2.76
🪜 4+ @ 6.50 (F) 5.73

1️⃣5️⃣ Salah 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) 🇪🇬
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.88 | 2+ = 56.0% (1.79)
• +12% EV.
💰 0.5u

🪜 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.79
🪜 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.3

1️⃣6️⃣ Gyökeres 2+ Goals @ 2.88 (F) 🇸🇪
• Proj. ⚽️: 1.3 | 2+ = 37.7% (2.65)
• +9% EV.
💰 0.5u

────────────────────
⚠️ THIN / MARGINAL (small stakes or skip)
────────────────────
• Yamal UNDER 2.5 @ 2.0 (365) 🇪🇸 (+4%)
💰 0.5u

• Martínez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5 (365) 🇦🇷 (+3%) 🔒
better as the arb
💰 0.5u
🪜 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.76
🪜 3+ @ 3.30 (F) 3.20

• Embolo 3+ Goals @ 3.60 (F) 🇨🇭 (+3% EV)
💰 0.25u

• Havertz 3+ Goals @ 2.0 (365) 🇩🇪 (+2%)
💰 0.5u

🪜3+ @ 2 (365) 1.97
🪜4+ @ 3.5 (365) 3.38
🪜5+ @ 7 (365) 6.79

Arbs in the comments

F = Flutter

Sky
Betfair
Paddy
Pokerstars

What bookmaker is F?

📉 DROPPING ODDS ALERT 📉
🏟 USA vs Paraguay
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 13 Jun 26 02:00

👤 Malik Tillman (USA)
🟢 7.58 Avg Rating
🧩 Position: AM (Alt: LAM, LW)

🤝 To Assist
📉 6 → 5.5 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)

📆 Appearances (✓ = started): 10 (8) / 10
🕣 Avg Mins: 78 | 🤝 Per game: 0.30
📊 Per Game (Last 10): 0✓, 0, 0✓, 0✓, -, 0✓, 0✓, 0✓, 1✓, 2✓
🫂 Per Game (w/ Sub): 0✓, 1^, 0✓, 0✓, 0^, 0✓, 0✓, 0✓, 1✓, 2✓


💡PROPPR INSIGHT💡

2.0 - Chief creator: Malik Tillman is engineering opportunities with an average of 2.0 key passes a match.

Malik Tillman Last 10 Key Passes: 3, 0, 2, 3, -, 6, 0, 2, 1, 1 #PropprInsights

📉 DROPPING ODDS ALERT 📉
🏟 South Korea vs Czechia
🌍 World Cup
⏰ 12 Jun 26 03:00
🌧 Showers expected.

👤 Patrik Schick (Czechia)
🟡 7.17 Avg Rating
🧩 Position: ST (Alt: AM, RAM)

🧠🎯 Over 0.5 Headed Shots On Target
📉 3 → 2.75 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)

🧠🎯 Over 1.5 Headed Shots On Target
📉 15 → 13 (13.3% drop) (Bet365)

📆 Appearances (✓ = started): 10 (8) / 10
🕣 Avg Mins: 70 | 🧠🎯 Per game: 0.50
📊 Per Game (Last 10): -, 0✓, 3✓, 0✓, -, 0, 2✓, 1✓, 5✓, 3✓

🧩 ST's vs South Korea:
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 | 🧠🎯 Per game: 0.00
🧩 AM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | 🧠🎯 Per game: 0.00
🧩 RAM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | 🧠🎯 Per game: 0.00


💡PROPPR INSIGHT💡

162 - Across all competitions, Czechia dominate aerial duels won in this period: 162 compared to South Korea's 70. League avg: 10.3. #PropprInsights

⚽️ World Cup Totals Betting Picks 🌍

📊 Total Tournament Goals
Over 295.5 @ 4.00 (10Bet)
💰stake: 0.25u
🔮 Proj. Goals: 281.65 | 🎯 Chance: 20.37%

📐 Total Tournament Corners
Over 990.5 @ 2.50 (Bet365)
💰stake: 0.5u
🔮 Proj. Corners: 984.46 | 🎯 Chance: 42.17%

🟨 Total Tournament Yellow Cards
Over 380.5 @ 1.83
💰stake: 0.75u
🔮 Proj. Cards: 384.17 | 🎯 Chance: 57.10%

📉 Lowest Scoring Team
🇭🇹 Haiti @ 9.00 (Bet365)
💰stake: 0.2u
🎯 Chance: 15.38%
💡 *Note: Curacao @ 6 have a higher chance (20.94%), but dead heat rules make Haiti the more attractive choice.*

📈 Highest Scoring Team
🇦🇷 Argentina @ 14.70 (Betfair Exchange)
💰stake: 0.2u
🔮 Proj Goals: 11.33 | 🎯 Chance: 7.07%

🏆 Highest Scoring Group
🏁 Group I (🇫🇷, 🇸🇳, 🇮🇶, 🇳🇴) @ 11.00 (Betfred)
💰stake: 0.2u
🎯 Chance: 9.38%

Found a fun bet to throw 0.25u on 🎲

Any Team To Qualify From a Group Without Winning a Game @ 7 🏆
(BetVictor / TalksportBet / Parimatch / Betano) 📱

📊 Stats:
• Qualify without winning: 36% (2.78) 📈
• Eliminated without losing: 31% (3.23) 📉

Note: Above is just from a pure maths standpoint and doesn't factor in the actual teams/groups (not worth the time+effort)

• I feel like these may not have taken into consideration fully how much the third place teams could shake this up 🔄
• This is also why "Eliminated without losing" is lower because the most likely scenario of 3 draws would more likely see you go through then go out of the tournament 🚪

Not a banker of course because you're still relying on there being a team to draw all 3 games whilst not impossible makes the 7 odds justified

• In the EURO's Since 2016 where the best third place teams have gone through it's happened twice in three editions where only 4 best third-place teams go through, the world cup will see 8 best third-place teams go through✅

nevermind its Medina starting

cashed and taken on sky, better odds and fantasy assist rules

0.75u on Iceland SOT each half. Can take Rulli 2+ Saves to bump it up to 2.37 but not worth it imo.

🎯 Iceland - 1st Half Team Shots On Target
✈️ Iceland Projected (Last 10): 1.36
📊 Team Average: 1.30
🕒 Last 10 For: 2, 0, 2, 2, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: 0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 3, 0, 2, 1

🎯 Iceland - 2nd Half Team Shots On Target
✈️ Iceland Projected (Last 10): 3.04
📊 Team Average: 3.20
🕒 Last 10 For: 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 7
🕒 Last 10 Opponent Against: 0, 1, 4, 2, 3, 1, 4, 0, 5, 3

if this bet doesnt win I have to live with knowing this was the reason why...