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4 Reasons to use @PropprPlayerBot during the World Cup ๐
1. ๐จ Three Advanced Alert Types
The bot scans the betting landscape for three profitable alerts:
* Market Average Alerts: Highlights massive price outliers (e.g., prop at 12.0 odds vs. 10.0 market average).
* Dropping Odds Alerts: Signals market crashes on specific props to beat bookies before price slashes.
* Value Alerts: Uses historical stats and matchups to deliver calculated edge recommendations.
2. ๐ The /Team Command
Pull player projections across every market. Verify if props are locks or traps. It crunches numbers, compares probabilities against live odds, and tracks niche categories like "free-kick shots" for a massive edge.
3. ๐ฏ Opposition Position Stats
Analyze how specific positions perform against upcoming opponents. Check striker stats vs. Mexico's backline, exact foul rates, and exploit soft defensive lines before the public catches on.
4. ๐ The /Each Command
Calculate the exact probability of two players achieving the same statistic. Build high-value, correlated same-game parlays using the correlation engine without guessing the math.
1. ๐จ Three Advanced Alert Types
The bot scans the betting landscape for three profitable alerts:
* Market Average Alerts: Highlights massive price outliers (e.g., prop at 12.0 odds vs. 10.0 market average).
* Dropping Odds Alerts: Signals market crashes on specific props to beat bookies before price slashes.
* Value Alerts: Uses historical stats and matchups to deliver calculated edge recommendations.
2. ๐ The /Team Command
Pull player projections across every market. Verify if props are locks or traps. It crunches numbers, compares probabilities against live odds, and tracks niche categories like "free-kick shots" for a massive edge.
3. ๐ฏ Opposition Position Stats
Analyze how specific positions perform against upcoming opponents. Check striker stats vs. Mexico's backline, exact foul rates, and exploit soft defensive lines before the public catches on.
4. ๐ The /Each Command
Calculate the exact probability of two players achieving the same statistic. Build high-value, correlated same-game parlays using the correlation engine without guessing the math.
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ
๐ England vs New Zealand
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00
๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand)
๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW)
๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance)
๐ Value: 19.7%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 0.75u
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ซ Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 1, 0
๐งฉ RAM's vs England:
0,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs England:
-,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ LW's vs England:
-,-,2,-,-,-,-,-,0,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.20
๐ England vs New Zealand
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00
๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand)
๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW)
๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance)
๐ Value: 19.7%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 0.75u
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ซ Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 1, 0
๐งฉ RAM's vs England:
0,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs England:
-,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ LW's vs England:
-,-,2,-,-,-,-,-,0,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.20
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Another pick to take on limitless for these World Cup warm-up friendlies. โฝ๏ธ๐
Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia
NO @ 50c ๐
We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harder to find out the statistics to get our confirmation bias that this is a genuine trend and not just a one-off. ๐ค๐
But just from what I could find from recent friendlies:
Denmark 60% ๐ 53%
Netherlands 48% ๐ 56%
Spain 72% ๐ 60%
France 64% ๐ 56%
Mexico 75% ๐ 54%
Saudi Arabia 64% ๐ 60%
Canada 66% ๐ 67%
Croatia will be playing Slovenia in Croatia, so there won't be the weather conditions to factor in, but we'll be banking on the trend continuing of the drop-off in the 2nd half ๐ค๐
Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia
NO @ 50c ๐
We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harder to find out the statistics to get our confirmation bias that this is a genuine trend and not just a one-off. ๐ค๐
But just from what I could find from recent friendlies:
Denmark 60% ๐ 53%
Netherlands 48% ๐ 56%
Spain 72% ๐ 60%
France 64% ๐ 56%
Mexico 75% ๐ 54%
Saudi Arabia 64% ๐ 60%
Canada 66% ๐ 67%
Croatia will be playing Slovenia in Croatia, so there won't be the weather conditions to factor in, but we'll be banking on the trend continuing of the drop-off in the 2nd half ๐ค๐
Using the /Matchup command in @PropprPlayerbot it fancies Musiala to have more succ. dribbles than Pulisic at a whopping 59.8% Chance.
This is a market we can bet on Limitless
Musiala to record more successful dribbles than Pulisic @ 52.3c
โ Match Up Succ. Dribbles
๐ USA vs Germany
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 06 Jun 26 18:30
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.67 (59.8% Chance)
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 3.99 (25.1% Chance)
๐ Jamal Musiala (Germany) vs USA
โ Succ. Dribbles - 2.17
โ = Started
0โ, 2โ, 2โ, 3โ, 1โ, 5โ
๐ Christian Pulisic (USA) vs Germany
โ Succ. Dribbles - 1.30
โ = Started
1, 1, 1โ, 1, 0, 4โ, 1โ, 2โ, 0โ, 2โ
Now, of course, with friendlies, we are expecting some kind of rotation. Pulisic only played 45 minutes in USA's win versus Senegal, where Musiala played the full 90 minutes in their win against Finland in their recent friendly.
Both teams do have looked like to have lined up with their strongest possible teams. So I am expecting both players to get a decent amount of minutes and we can just hope that the data serves us right and Musiala can weave his way to a winner for us.
This is a market we can bet on Limitless
Musiala to record more successful dribbles than Pulisic @ 52.3c
โ Match Up Succ. Dribbles
๐ USA vs Germany
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 06 Jun 26 18:30
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.67 (59.8% Chance)
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 3.99 (25.1% Chance)
๐ Jamal Musiala (Germany) vs USA
โ Succ. Dribbles - 2.17
โ = Started
0โ, 2โ, 2โ, 3โ, 1โ, 5โ
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ |
| 88.5% | 63.7% | 36.8% | 17.4% | 6.9% |
| 1.13 | 1.57 | 2.71 | 5.74 | 14.50 |
๐ Christian Pulisic (USA) vs Germany
โ Succ. Dribbles - 1.30
โ = Started
1, 1, 1โ, 1, 0, 4โ, 1โ, 2โ, 0โ, 2โ
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ |
| 72.7% | 37.3% | 14.3% | 4.3% |
| 1.37 | 2.68 | 7.00 | 23.20 |
Now, of course, with friendlies, we are expecting some kind of rotation. Pulisic only played 45 minutes in USA's win versus Senegal, where Musiala played the full 90 minutes in their win against Finland in their recent friendly.
Both teams do have looked like to have lined up with their strongest possible teams. So I am expecting both players to get a decent amount of minutes and we can just hope that the data serves us right and Musiala can weave his way to a winner for us.
Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ ๐ England vs New Zealand ๐ Friendlies โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00 ๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand) ๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating ๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW) ๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots ๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365) ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance) ๐ Value: 19.7%โฆ
Winner โ
๐1
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Another pick to take on limitless for these World Cup warm-up friendlies. โฝ๏ธ๐ Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia NO @ 50c ๐ We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harderโฆ
No luck on Musiala last night as Pulsic won 3-1 on successful dribbles ๐ช
But Croatia end the first half with a VERY strong 68% possession, we now just need them to to score 68% or less in the 2nd half ๐
But Croatia end the first half with a VERY strong 68% possession, we now just need them to to score 68% or less in the 2nd half ๐
Bet365 currently have priced up 'Goalscorer Match Bets' now the rules are if its a draw the stakes are refunded.
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model and this is the TL:DR of each market if there's any value.
Sadly only singles on these so might be worth doubling up with some other markets if the prices are too short for you
1๏ธโฃ Messi vs. Ronaldo ๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น
โข Odds: Messi 1.61 | Ronaldo 2.20
โข Model: Messi 3.85 goals | Ronaldo 3.51 goals
โข True Win %: Messi 47.37% | Tie 14.86% | Ronaldo 37.45%
โ Play: Pass. Messi's True DNB odds (~1.79) make the 1.61 offer no value.
2๏ธโฃ Kane vs. Haaland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐ณ๐ด
โข Odds: Kane 1.44 | Haaland 2.62
โข Model: Kane 5.52 goals | Haaland 4.02 goals
โข True Win %: Kane 60.04% | Tie 11.70% | Haaland 25.38%
โ Play: Kane @ 1.44. Slight value; 1.44 beats model's True DNB (~1.42).
3๏ธโฃ Vinicius Jr. vs. Alvarez ๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท
โข Odds: Vinicius 1.83 | Alvarez 1.83
โข Model: Vinicius 2.61 goals | Alvarez 1.93 goals
โข True Win %: Vinicius 52.98% | Tie 18.49% | Alvarez 28.53%
โ Play: Vinicius Jr. @ 1.83. Great value; 1.83 beats True DNB (~1.54) and Double Chance (1.40).
4๏ธโฃ Saka vs. Dembele ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ซ๐ท
โข Odds: Saka 2.50 | Dembele 1.50
โข Model: Saka 0.95 goals | Dembele 1.29 goals
โข True Win %: Saka 27.46% | Tie 28.22% | Dembele 44.32%
โ Play: Pass. Dembele's True DNB (~1.62) makes 1.50 negative EV.
5๏ธโฃ Raphinha vs. Bellingham ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
โข Odds: Raphinha 1.53 | Bellingham 2.37
โข Model: Raphinha 2.21 goals | Bellingham 0.58 goals
โข True Win %: Raphinha 74.98% | Tie 16.85% | Bellingham 8.17%
โ Play: Raphinha @ 1.53. Massive value; 1.53 beats model straight win (1.33) and Double Chance (1.09).
6๏ธโฃ Bruno Fernandes vs. Wirtz ๐ต๐น๐ฉ๐ช
โข Odds: Bruno 1.83 | Wirtz 1.83
โข Model: Bruno 1.83 goals | Wirtz 1.35 goals
โข True Win %: Bruno 48.90% | Tie 22.80% | Wirtz 28.30%
โ Play: Bruno Fernandes @ 1.83. Strong play; beats Double Chance (1.39) and True DNB (~1.58).
7๏ธโฃ Lautaro vs. Lukaku ๐ฆ๐ท๐ง๐ช
โข Odds: Martinez 1.83 | Lukaku 1.83
โข Model: Martinez 2.02 goals | Lukaku 2.48 goals
โข True Win %: Martinez 32.09% | Tie 19.00% | Lukaku 48.90%
โ Play: Lukaku @ 1.83. Solid value; crushes Double Chance (1.47) and beats True DNB (~1.66).
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model and this is the TL:DR of each market if there's any value.
Sadly only singles on these so might be worth doubling up with some other markets if the prices are too short for you
1๏ธโฃ Messi vs. Ronaldo ๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น
โข Odds: Messi 1.61 | Ronaldo 2.20
โข Model: Messi 3.85 goals | Ronaldo 3.51 goals
โข True Win %: Messi 47.37% | Tie 14.86% | Ronaldo 37.45%
โ Play: Pass. Messi's True DNB odds (~1.79) make the 1.61 offer no value.
2๏ธโฃ Kane vs. Haaland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐ณ๐ด
โข Odds: Kane 1.44 | Haaland 2.62
โข Model: Kane 5.52 goals | Haaland 4.02 goals
โข True Win %: Kane 60.04% | Tie 11.70% | Haaland 25.38%
โ Play: Kane @ 1.44. Slight value; 1.44 beats model's True DNB (~1.42).
3๏ธโฃ Vinicius Jr. vs. Alvarez ๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท
โข Odds: Vinicius 1.83 | Alvarez 1.83
โข Model: Vinicius 2.61 goals | Alvarez 1.93 goals
โข True Win %: Vinicius 52.98% | Tie 18.49% | Alvarez 28.53%
โ Play: Vinicius Jr. @ 1.83. Great value; 1.83 beats True DNB (~1.54) and Double Chance (1.40).
4๏ธโฃ Saka vs. Dembele ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ซ๐ท
โข Odds: Saka 2.50 | Dembele 1.50
โข Model: Saka 0.95 goals | Dembele 1.29 goals
โข True Win %: Saka 27.46% | Tie 28.22% | Dembele 44.32%
โ Play: Pass. Dembele's True DNB (~1.62) makes 1.50 negative EV.
5๏ธโฃ Raphinha vs. Bellingham ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
โข Odds: Raphinha 1.53 | Bellingham 2.37
โข Model: Raphinha 2.21 goals | Bellingham 0.58 goals
โข True Win %: Raphinha 74.98% | Tie 16.85% | Bellingham 8.17%
โ Play: Raphinha @ 1.53. Massive value; 1.53 beats model straight win (1.33) and Double Chance (1.09).
6๏ธโฃ Bruno Fernandes vs. Wirtz ๐ต๐น๐ฉ๐ช
โข Odds: Bruno 1.83 | Wirtz 1.83
โข Model: Bruno 1.83 goals | Wirtz 1.35 goals
โข True Win %: Bruno 48.90% | Tie 22.80% | Wirtz 28.30%
โ Play: Bruno Fernandes @ 1.83. Strong play; beats Double Chance (1.39) and True DNB (~1.58).
7๏ธโฃ Lautaro vs. Lukaku ๐ฆ๐ท๐ง๐ช
โข Odds: Martinez 1.83 | Lukaku 1.83
โข Model: Martinez 2.02 goals | Lukaku 2.48 goals
โข True Win %: Martinez 32.09% | Tie 19.00% | Lukaku 48.90%
โ Play: Lukaku @ 1.83. Solid value; crushes Double Chance (1.47) and beats True DNB (~1.66).
โค1
As my last post using the same logic to find value in Over/Under total goals and some potential ladders to.
Will not be taking all of these personally but will track the singles anyways.
๐ = can be arbed
Fair odds in italic
1๏ธโฃ Kane 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 5.25 | 4+ 1.31
โข +60% EV line set far too low for a projected 5.25.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.17 (F) 1.08
๐ช 3+ @ 1.53 (F) 1.15
๐ช 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.31
๐ช 5+ @ 3.30 (F) 1.63
๐ช 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.22
๐ช 7+ @ 6.50 (365) 3.31
2๏ธโฃ Mbappรฉ 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ซ๐ท ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 4.89 | 4+ 1.39
โข +51% EV same as Kane, the 4+ is too short.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.50 (F) 1.19
๐ช 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.39
๐ช 5+ @ 3.20 (F) 1.80
๐ช 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.57
๐ช 7+ @ 8.00 (365) 4.05
3๏ธโฃ Lukaku 2+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ง๐ช ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.36 | 2+ 1.48
โข +42% EV
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช2+ @ 2.1 1.48
๐ช3+ @ 4.2 2.33
๐ช4+ @ 8.5 4.4
4๏ธโฃ Haaland 4+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) ๐ณ๐ด
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.82 | 4+ 1.84
โข +36% EV underdog tag drags the line down.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.67 (F) 1.38
๐ช 4+ @ 2.50 (F) 1.84
๐ช 5+ @ 4.00 (365) 2.8
5๏ธโฃ รlvarez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83 (365) ๐ฆ๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.83 | Under 2.5 = 71.2% (1.40)
โข +30% EV coming off an injury, may struggle to fire in time.
๐ฐ 0.75u
6๏ธโฃ Fernandes 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) ๐ต๐น ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.74 | 2+ = 51.9% (1.93)
โข +25% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 1+ @ 1.30 (F) 1.25
๐ช 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 1.93
๐ช 3+ @ 5 (F) 3.78
7๏ธโฃ Oyarzabal 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ช๐ธ ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.03 | 3+ = 58.7% (1.70)
โข +7% EV model leans over; the 365 under is the arb hedge if you'd rather lock.
๐ฐ 0.5u
8๏ธโฃ Ronaldo 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ต๐น
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.33 | 3+ = 64.6% (1.55)
โข +18% EV Flutter's 3+ is the model-aligned price.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.29 (F) 1.22
๐ช 3+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.55
๐ช 4+ @ 2.80 (F) 2.27
๐ช 5+ @ 5.00 (365) 3.82
๐ช 6+ @ 10.00 (365) 7.36
9๏ธโฃ Dรญaz 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) ๐จ๐ด
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.64 | 2+ = 49.0% (2.04)
โข +18% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 1+ @ 1.33 (F) 1.28
๐ช 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 2.04
๐ช 3+ @ 5 (F) 4.2
๐ Messi 4+ Goals @ 2.3 (F) ๐ฆ๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.66 | 4+ = 51.0% (1.96)
โข +17% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.62 (F) 1.42
๐ช 4+ @ 2.30 (F) 1.96
๐ช 5+ @ 3.60 (F) 3.07
๐ช 6+ @ 6.50 (365) 5.47
1๏ธโฃ1๏ธโฃ Wirtz UNDER 1.5 @ 1.83 (365) ๐ฉ๐ช
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.28 | Under 1.5 = 63.0% (1.59)
โข +15% EV
๐ฐ 0.75u
1๏ธโฃ2๏ธโฃ Vinรญcius Jr 3+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) ๐ง๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.48 | 3+ = 45.9% (2.18)
โข +15% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.57 (F) 1.43
๐ช 3+ @ 2.50 (F) 2.18
๐ช 4+ @ 4.50 (F) 3.96
1๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ Nรบรฑez 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) ๐บ๐พ
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.93 | 2+ = 57.2% (1.75)
โข +14% EV evens on a projection just shy of 2.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.75
๐ช 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.17
๐ช 4+ @ 8 (F) 7.09
1๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ Raphinha 2+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ง๐ท ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.1 | 2+ = 61.7% (1.62)
โข +13% EV set-piece + penalty taker.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.62
๐ช 3+ @ 3.40 (F) 2.76
๐ช 4+ @ 6.50 (F) 5.73
1๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ Salah 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) ๐ช๐ฌ
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.88 | 2+ = 56.0% (1.79)
โข +12% EV.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.79
๐ช 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.3
1๏ธโฃ6๏ธโฃ Gyรถkeres 2+ Goals @ 2.88 (F) ๐ธ๐ช
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.3 | 2+ = 37.7% (2.65)
โข +9% EV.
๐ฐ 0.5u
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
โ ๏ธ THIN / MARGINAL (small stakes or skip)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
โข Yamal UNDER 2.5 @ 2.0 (365) ๐ช๐ธ (+4%)
๐ฐ 0.5u
โข Martรญnez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5 (365) ๐ฆ๐ท (+3%) ๐
better as the arb
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.76
๐ช 3+ @ 3.30 (F) 3.20
โข Embolo 3+ Goals @ 3.60 (F) ๐จ๐ญ (+3% EV)
๐ฐ 0.25u
โข Havertz 3+ Goals @ 2.0 (365) ๐ฉ๐ช (+2%)
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช3+ @ 2 (365) 1.97
๐ช4+ @ 3.5 (365) 3.38
๐ช5+ @ 7 (365) 6.79
Arbs in the comments
Will not be taking all of these personally but will track the singles anyways.
๐ = can be arbed
Fair odds in italic
1๏ธโฃ Kane 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 5.25 | 4+ 1.31
โข +60% EV line set far too low for a projected 5.25.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.17 (F) 1.08
๐ช 3+ @ 1.53 (F) 1.15
๐ช 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.31
๐ช 5+ @ 3.30 (F) 1.63
๐ช 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.22
๐ช 7+ @ 6.50 (365) 3.31
2๏ธโฃ Mbappรฉ 4+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ซ๐ท ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 4.89 | 4+ 1.39
โข +51% EV same as Kane, the 4+ is too short.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.50 (F) 1.19
๐ช 4+ @ 2.10 (F) 1.39
๐ช 5+ @ 3.20 (F) 1.80
๐ช 6+ @ 5 (F) 2.57
๐ช 7+ @ 8.00 (365) 4.05
3๏ธโฃ Lukaku 2+ Goals @ 2.1 (F) ๐ง๐ช ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.36 | 2+ 1.48
โข +42% EV
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช2+ @ 2.1 1.48
๐ช3+ @ 4.2 2.33
๐ช4+ @ 8.5 4.4
4๏ธโฃ Haaland 4+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) ๐ณ๐ด
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.82 | 4+ 1.84
โข +36% EV underdog tag drags the line down.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.67 (F) 1.38
๐ช 4+ @ 2.50 (F) 1.84
๐ช 5+ @ 4.00 (365) 2.8
5๏ธโฃ รlvarez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.83 (365) ๐ฆ๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.83 | Under 2.5 = 71.2% (1.40)
โข +30% EV coming off an injury, may struggle to fire in time.
๐ฐ 0.75u
6๏ธโฃ Fernandes 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) ๐ต๐น ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.74 | 2+ = 51.9% (1.93)
โข +25% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 1+ @ 1.30 (F) 1.25
๐ช 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 1.93
๐ช 3+ @ 5 (F) 3.78
7๏ธโฃ Oyarzabal 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ช๐ธ ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.03 | 3+ = 58.7% (1.70)
โข +7% EV model leans over; the 365 under is the arb hedge if you'd rather lock.
๐ฐ 0.5u
8๏ธโฃ Ronaldo 3+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ต๐น
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.33 | 3+ = 64.6% (1.55)
โข +18% EV Flutter's 3+ is the model-aligned price.
๐ฐ 0.75u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.29 (F) 1.22
๐ช 3+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.55
๐ช 4+ @ 2.80 (F) 2.27
๐ช 5+ @ 5.00 (365) 3.82
๐ช 6+ @ 10.00 (365) 7.36
9๏ธโฃ Dรญaz 2+ Goals @ 2.4 (F) ๐จ๐ด
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.64 | 2+ = 49.0% (2.04)
โข +18% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 1+ @ 1.33 (F) 1.28
๐ช 2+ @ 2.40 (F) 2.04
๐ช 3+ @ 5 (F) 4.2
๐ Messi 4+ Goals @ 2.3 (F) ๐ฆ๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 3.66 | 4+ = 51.0% (1.96)
โข +17% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 3+ @ 1.62 (F) 1.42
๐ช 4+ @ 2.30 (F) 1.96
๐ช 5+ @ 3.60 (F) 3.07
๐ช 6+ @ 6.50 (365) 5.47
1๏ธโฃ1๏ธโฃ Wirtz UNDER 1.5 @ 1.83 (365) ๐ฉ๐ช
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.28 | Under 1.5 = 63.0% (1.59)
โข +15% EV
๐ฐ 0.75u
1๏ธโฃ2๏ธโฃ Vinรญcius Jr 3+ Goals @ 2.5 (F) ๐ง๐ท
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.48 | 3+ = 45.9% (2.18)
โข +15% EV
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.57 (F) 1.43
๐ช 3+ @ 2.50 (F) 2.18
๐ช 4+ @ 4.50 (F) 3.96
1๏ธโฃ3๏ธโฃ Nรบรฑez 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) ๐บ๐พ
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.93 | 2+ = 57.2% (1.75)
โข +14% EV evens on a projection just shy of 2.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.75
๐ช 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.17
๐ช 4+ @ 8 (F) 7.09
1๏ธโฃ4๏ธโฃ Raphinha 2+ Goals @ 1.83 (F) ๐ง๐ท ๐
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 2.1 | 2+ = 61.7% (1.62)
โข +13% EV set-piece + penalty taker.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.62
๐ช 3+ @ 3.40 (F) 2.76
๐ช 4+ @ 6.50 (F) 5.73
1๏ธโฃ5๏ธโฃ Salah 2+ Goals @ 2 (F) ๐ช๐ฌ
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.88 | 2+ = 56.0% (1.79)
โข +12% EV.
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 2 (F) 1.79
๐ช 3+ @ 3.75 (F) 3.3
1๏ธโฃ6๏ธโฃ Gyรถkeres 2+ Goals @ 2.88 (F) ๐ธ๐ช
โข Proj. โฝ๏ธ: 1.3 | 2+ = 37.7% (2.65)
โข +9% EV.
๐ฐ 0.5u
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
โ ๏ธ THIN / MARGINAL (small stakes or skip)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
โข Yamal UNDER 2.5 @ 2.0 (365) ๐ช๐ธ (+4%)
๐ฐ 0.5u
โข Martรญnez UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5 (365) ๐ฆ๐ท (+3%) ๐
better as the arb
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช 2+ @ 1.83 (F) 1.76
๐ช 3+ @ 3.30 (F) 3.20
โข Embolo 3+ Goals @ 3.60 (F) ๐จ๐ญ (+3% EV)
๐ฐ 0.25u
โข Havertz 3+ Goals @ 2.0 (365) ๐ฉ๐ช (+2%)
๐ฐ 0.5u
๐ช3+ @ 2 (365) 1.97
๐ช4+ @ 3.5 (365) 3.38
๐ช5+ @ 7 (365) 6.79
Arbs in the comments
F = Flutter
Sky
Betfair
Paddy
Pokerstars
Sky
Betfair
Paddy
Pokerstars
๐1
Forwarded from Mark
What bookmaker is F?
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
๐ DROPPING ODDS ALERT ๐
๐ USA vs Paraguay
๐ World Cup
โฐ 13 Jun 26 02:00
๐ค Malik Tillman (USA)
๐ข 7.58 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: AM (Alt: LAM, LW)
๐ค To Assist
๐ 6 โ 5.5 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (โ = started): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ค Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 0โ, 0, 0โ, 0โ, -, 0โ, 0โ, 0โ, 1โ, 2โ
๐ซ Per Game (w/ Sub): 0โ, 1^, 0โ, 0โ, 0^, 0โ, 0โ, 0โ, 1โ, 2โ
๐กPROPPR INSIGHT๐ก
2.0 - Chief creator: Malik Tillman is engineering opportunities with an average of 2.0 key passes a match.
Malik Tillman Last 10 Key Passes: 3, 0, 2, 3, -, 6, 0, 2, 1, 1 #PropprInsights
๐ USA vs Paraguay
๐ World Cup
โฐ 13 Jun 26 02:00
๐ค Malik Tillman (USA)
๐ข 7.58 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: AM (Alt: LAM, LW)
๐ค To Assist
๐ 6 โ 5.5 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (โ = started): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ค Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 0โ, 0, 0โ, 0โ, -, 0โ, 0โ, 0โ, 1โ, 2โ
๐ซ Per Game (w/ Sub): 0โ, 1^, 0โ, 0โ, 0^, 0โ, 0โ, 0โ, 1โ, 2โ
๐กPROPPR INSIGHT๐ก
2.0 - Chief creator: Malik Tillman is engineering opportunities with an average of 2.0 key passes a match.
Malik Tillman Last 10 Key Passes: 3, 0, 2, 3, -, 6, 0, 2, 1, 1 #PropprInsights
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
๐ DROPPING ODDS ALERT ๐
๐ South Korea vs Czechia
๐ World Cup
โฐ 12 Jun 26 03:00
๐ง Showers expected.
๐ค Patrik Schick (Czechia)
๐ก 7.17 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: ST (Alt: AM, RAM)
๐ง ๐ฏ Over 0.5 Headed Shots On Target
๐ 3 โ 2.75 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ง ๐ฏ Over 1.5 Headed Shots On Target
๐ 15 โ 13 (13.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (โ = started): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 70 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.50
๐ Per Game (Last 10): -, 0โ, 3โ, 0โ, -, 0, 2โ, 1โ, 5โ, 3โ
๐งฉ ST's vs South Korea:
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ RAM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐กPROPPR INSIGHT๐ก
162 - Across all competitions, Czechia dominate aerial duels won in this period: 162 compared to South Korea's 70. League avg: 10.3. #PropprInsights
๐ South Korea vs Czechia
๐ World Cup
โฐ 12 Jun 26 03:00
๐ง Showers expected.
๐ค Patrik Schick (Czechia)
๐ก 7.17 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: ST (Alt: AM, RAM)
๐ง ๐ฏ Over 0.5 Headed Shots On Target
๐ 3 โ 2.75 (8.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ง ๐ฏ Over 1.5 Headed Shots On Target
๐ 15 โ 13 (13.3% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (โ = started): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 70 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.50
๐ Per Game (Last 10): -, 0โ, 3โ, 0โ, -, 0, 2โ, 1โ, 5โ, 3โ
๐งฉ ST's vs South Korea:
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ RAM's vs South Korea:
-,0,0,-,-,-,0,0,-,0 | ๐ง ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐กPROPPR INSIGHT๐ก
162 - Across all competitions, Czechia dominate aerial duels won in this period: 162 compared to South Korea's 70. League avg: 10.3. #PropprInsights
โฝ๏ธ World Cup Totals Betting Picks ๐
๐ Total Tournament Goals
Over 295.5 @ 4.00 (10Bet)
๐ฐstake: 0.25u
๐ฎ Proj. Goals: 281.65 | ๐ฏ Chance: 20.37%
๐ Total Tournament Corners
Over 990.5 @ 2.50 (Bet365)
๐ฐstake: 0.5u
๐ฎ Proj. Corners: 984.46 | ๐ฏ Chance: 42.17%
๐จ Total Tournament Yellow Cards
Over 380.5 @ 1.83
๐ฐstake: 0.75u
๐ฎ Proj. Cards: 384.17 | ๐ฏ Chance: 57.10%
๐ Lowest Scoring Team
๐ญ๐น Haiti @ 9.00 (Bet365)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฏ Chance: 15.38%
๐ก *Note: Curacao @ 6 have a higher chance (20.94%), but dead heat rules make Haiti the more attractive choice.*
๐ Highest Scoring Team
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina @ 14.70 (Betfair Exchange)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฎ Proj Goals: 11.33 | ๐ฏ Chance: 7.07%
๐ Highest Scoring Group
๐ Group I (๐ซ๐ท, ๐ธ๐ณ, ๐ฎ๐ถ, ๐ณ๐ด) @ 11.00 (Betfred)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฏ Chance: 9.38%
๐ Total Tournament Goals
Over 295.5 @ 4.00 (10Bet)
๐ฐstake: 0.25u
๐ฎ Proj. Goals: 281.65 | ๐ฏ Chance: 20.37%
๐ Total Tournament Corners
Over 990.5 @ 2.50 (Bet365)
๐ฐstake: 0.5u
๐ฎ Proj. Corners: 984.46 | ๐ฏ Chance: 42.17%
๐จ Total Tournament Yellow Cards
Over 380.5 @ 1.83
๐ฐstake: 0.75u
๐ฎ Proj. Cards: 384.17 | ๐ฏ Chance: 57.10%
๐ Lowest Scoring Team
๐ญ๐น Haiti @ 9.00 (Bet365)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฏ Chance: 15.38%
๐ก *Note: Curacao @ 6 have a higher chance (20.94%), but dead heat rules make Haiti the more attractive choice.*
๐ Highest Scoring Team
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina @ 14.70 (Betfair Exchange)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฎ Proj Goals: 11.33 | ๐ฏ Chance: 7.07%
๐ Highest Scoring Group
๐ Group I (๐ซ๐ท, ๐ธ๐ณ, ๐ฎ๐ถ, ๐ณ๐ด) @ 11.00 (Betfred)
๐ฐstake: 0.2u
๐ฏ Chance: 9.38%
These are currently on Unibet (no longer a Kambi book), unfortunately can't do multiples on them so singles only
https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting/odds/football/fifa-world-cup/world-cup-club-rivals/outrights
๐ฉ๐ช Kai Havertz (Arsenal) - 3.30
๐ฐStake: 0.5u
My model projects Havertz as Arsenal's top contributor (4.34 goals + assists), far ahead of Gyokeres (2.74). Germany faces an easy group (Curaรงao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador), ensuring a deep run and more games for Havertz. Model #1, deep run, 3.30 odds.
๐ฉ๐ช Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) - 4.75
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Salah projects slightly higher (4.77 vs 4.09), but Egypt faces a tough group (Belgium, Iran) likely exiting early. Germany's easy group allows Wirtz to play 2-3 extra games. At 4.75 (implied 21%), the odds overpay for this longevity advantage.
๐ง๐ช Jeremy Doku (Man City) - 4.00
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Haaland and Doku project similarly (5.03 vs 4.70), yet Doku is priced lower. Doku is an assist machine (3.798 projected). Norway faces a group of death (France, Senegal) and may exit early. Belgium has a kinder group and deeper run. Similar projection, longer run, better price.
๐ง๐ท Raphinha (Barcelona) - 4.20
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Lamine Yamal is the model favorite (6.16), driving up his price. Raphinha projects 4.14, a clear #2 for Barรงa. Brazil is a lock to go deep. The market undervalues Raphinha as a backup; he is a tournament-long talisman. At 4.20 (24%), the risk is priced in.
https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting/odds/football/fifa-world-cup/world-cup-club-rivals/outrights
๐ฉ๐ช Kai Havertz (Arsenal) - 3.30
๐ฐStake: 0.5u
My model projects Havertz as Arsenal's top contributor (4.34 goals + assists), far ahead of Gyokeres (2.74). Germany faces an easy group (Curaรงao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador), ensuring a deep run and more games for Havertz. Model #1, deep run, 3.30 odds.
๐ฉ๐ช Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) - 4.75
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Salah projects slightly higher (4.77 vs 4.09), but Egypt faces a tough group (Belgium, Iran) likely exiting early. Germany's easy group allows Wirtz to play 2-3 extra games. At 4.75 (implied 21%), the odds overpay for this longevity advantage.
๐ง๐ช Jeremy Doku (Man City) - 4.00
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Haaland and Doku project similarly (5.03 vs 4.70), yet Doku is priced lower. Doku is an assist machine (3.798 projected). Norway faces a group of death (France, Senegal) and may exit early. Belgium has a kinder group and deeper run. Similar projection, longer run, better price.
๐ง๐ท Raphinha (Barcelona) - 4.20
๐ฐStake: 0.25u
Lamine Yamal is the model favorite (6.16), driving up his price. Raphinha projects 4.14, a clear #2 for Barรงa. Brazil is a lock to go deep. The market undervalues Raphinha as a backup; he is a tournament-long talisman. At 4.20 (24%), the risk is priced in.