Flutter books (BF, Paddy & Sky) have realised a brand new market!
Player shots created ๐ช
Just in the time for the World Cup and another reason why you need @PropprPlayerBot
Hannibal 2+ and 3+ were great value picks and he delivered inside 45 mins ๐ฅ
Data in your hand in 2-3 clicks
Player shots created ๐ช
Just in the time for the World Cup and another reason why you need @PropprPlayerBot
Hannibal 2+ and 3+ were great value picks and he delivered inside 45 mins ๐ฅ
Data in your hand in 2-3 clicks
Forwarded from Proppr Team Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ TEAM PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ
๐ Wales vs Ghana
โ๏ธ ๐ 40.86 vs ๐ด 17.5
Friendlies
โฐ 2 Jun 19:45
๐ฏ Over 7.5 Shots on Target
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.63 (61.3% chance)
๐ Value: 12.45%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 1.0u
๐ Match Projected (Last 10): 8.49
๐ Wales Match Totals:
7, 8, 12, 7, 9, 7, -, 8, 12, 11
โ๏ธ Ghana Match Totals:
11, 7, 8, -, 7
๐ Wales vs Ghana
โ๏ธ ๐ 40.86 vs ๐ด 17.5
Friendlies
โฐ 2 Jun 19:45
๐ฏ Over 7.5 Shots on Target
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.63 (61.3% chance)
๐ Value: 12.45%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 1.0u
๐ Match Projected (Last 10): 8.49
๐ Wales Match Totals:
7, 8, 12, 7, 9, 7, -, 8, 12, 11
โ๏ธ Ghana Match Totals:
11, 7, 8, -, 7
๐2
Proppr Team Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ TEAM PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ ๐ Wales vs Ghana โ๏ธ ๐ 40.86 vs ๐ด 17.5 Friendlies โฐ 2 Jun 19:45 ๐ฏ Over 7.5 Shots on Target ๐ Bookmaker Odds: 1.83 (Bet365) ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.63 (61.3% chance) ๐ Value: 12.45% ๐ฐ Recommended stake: 1.0u ๐ Match Projected (Last 10):โฆ
Winnerโฆjust ๐โ
Forwarded from Proppr NBA Bot ๐๐ค [Beta]
โก๏ธ TEAM PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ
๐ Spurs vs Knicks
๐บ๐ธ NBA
โฐ 04/06 01:30
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ Over 217 Points @ 1.90 (Bet365)
๐ Value: +6.2% | โ๏ธ Chance: 56%
๐ฅ Proj: 220.6
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 1u
๐ Spurs Last 10 Game Totals (8/10):
209โ 241โ 185โ 231โ 235โ 237โ 248โ 223โ 223โ 223โ
๐ Spurs Last 10 Game Average: 225.5
โ๏ธ Knicks Last 10 Game Totals (7/10):
223โ 229โ 202โ 219โ 258โ 202โ 210โ 235โ 229โ 223โ
๐ Knicks Last 10 Game Average: 223.0
๐ค Spurs 4d rest, Knicks 7d rest
๐ Spurs vs Knicks
๐บ๐ธ NBA
โฐ 04/06 01:30
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ Over 217 Points @ 1.90 (Bet365)
๐ Value: +6.2% | โ๏ธ Chance: 56%
๐ฅ Proj: 220.6
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 1u
๐ Spurs Last 10 Game Totals (8/10):
209โ 241โ 185โ 231โ 235โ 237โ 248โ 223โ 223โ 223โ
๐ Spurs Last 10 Game Average: 225.5
โ๏ธ Knicks Last 10 Game Totals (7/10):
223โ 229โ 202โ 219โ 258โ 202โ 210โ 235โ 229โ 223โ
๐ Knicks Last 10 Game Average: 223.0
๐ค Spurs 4d rest, Knicks 7d rest
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
I know I'm heavy on Polymarket but really like this play on Limitless ๐ชโจ
No KYC and no VPN needed to sign up and I will be using them A LOT during the world cup! ๐๐
A substitute to score a goal in France vs Cรดte d'Ivoire @ 62.8c โฝ๏ธ๐ฏ
Checked the last 12 international friendlies involving teams going to the world cup and 10/12 had a substitute score in them. ๐โ
This isn't just highly coincidental but world cup preparation games with unlimited substitutes usually sees teams make 7+ changes between half time and the 60th min and I expect the same to happen here tonight. ๐โฑ๏ธ
Mbappe, Doue, Barcloa, Thuram, Mateta, Olise, Cherki will play tonight with 3 maybe 4 coming off the bench to get the job done. ๐๐ช
And of course Ivory Coast could also be the ones to get the job done too! ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ
Good luck if tailing ๐๐ค
No KYC and no VPN needed to sign up and I will be using them A LOT during the world cup! ๐๐
A substitute to score a goal in France vs Cรดte d'Ivoire @ 62.8c โฝ๏ธ๐ฏ
Checked the last 12 international friendlies involving teams going to the world cup and 10/12 had a substitute score in them. ๐โ
This isn't just highly coincidental but world cup preparation games with unlimited substitutes usually sees teams make 7+ changes between half time and the 60th min and I expect the same to happen here tonight. ๐โฑ๏ธ
Mbappe, Doue, Barcloa, Thuram, Mateta, Olise, Cherki will play tonight with 3 maybe 4 coming off the bench to get the job done. ๐๐ช
And of course Ivory Coast could also be the ones to get the job done too! ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ
Good luck if tailing ๐๐ค
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
I know I'm heavy on Polymarket but really like this play on Limitless ๐ชโจ No KYC and no VPN needed to sign up and I will be using them A LOT during the world cup! ๐๐ A substitute to score a goal in France vs Cรดte d'Ivoire @ 62.8c โฝ๏ธ๐ฏ Checked the last 12โฆ
Amad Diallo off the bench to get the winner for Ivory Coast and the winner for us ๐ฅ
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
๐ DROPPING ODDS ALERT ๐
๐ Brazil vs Egypt
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 23:00
โ Thunderstorm expected.
๐จ 11.2mph light breeze. Long balls and crosses affected.
๐ค Mohamed Salah (Egypt)
๐ก 7.48 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: ST (Alt: RAM, RM)
๐ฏ Over 1.5 Shots On Target
๐ 4.5 โ 4.33 (3.8% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (9) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 93 | ๐ฏ Per game: 1.40
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 2*, 0*, 2*, 4*, 0, 2*, 2*, 0*, 2*, 0*
๐งฉ ST's vs Brazil (Averaged):
0,0,1,0*,0,1,0,0,0,0 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.25
๐งฉ RAM's vs Brazil:
-,-,0,-,0,0,-,-,-,0 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ RM's vs Brazil:
-,0,-,-,-,-,0,-,-,- | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
_________________________
๐ค Haissem Hassan (Egypt)
๐งฉ Position: CM
๐ฏ Over 0.5 Shots On Target
๐ 3.25 โ 2.62 (19.4% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances: 3 / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 40 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐ Per Game (Last 3): 0*, 0, 0
๐งฉ CM's vs Brazil:
-,-,-,0,-,-,-,0,-,- | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐ Brazil vs Egypt
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 23:00
โ Thunderstorm expected.
๐จ 11.2mph light breeze. Long balls and crosses affected.
๐ค Mohamed Salah (Egypt)
๐ก 7.48 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: ST (Alt: RAM, RM)
๐ฏ Over 1.5 Shots On Target
๐ 4.5 โ 4.33 (3.8% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (9) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 93 | ๐ฏ Per game: 1.40
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 2*, 0*, 2*, 4*, 0, 2*, 2*, 0*, 2*, 0*
๐งฉ ST's vs Brazil (Averaged):
0,0,1,0*,0,1,0,0,0,0 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.25
๐งฉ RAM's vs Brazil:
-,-,0,-,0,0,-,-,-,0 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ RM's vs Brazil:
-,0,-,-,-,-,0,-,-,- | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
_________________________
๐ค Haissem Hassan (Egypt)
๐งฉ Position: CM
๐ฏ Over 0.5 Shots On Target
๐ 3.25 โ 2.62 (19.4% drop) (Bet365)
๐ Appearances: 3 / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 40 | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
๐ Per Game (Last 3): 0*, 0, 0
๐งฉ CM's vs Brazil:
-,-,-,0,-,-,-,0,-,- | ๐ฏ Per game: 0.00
Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
๐ DROPPING ODDS ALERT ๐ ๐ Brazil vs Egypt ๐ Friendlies โฐ 6 Jun 26 23:00 โ Thunderstorm expected. ๐จ 11.2mph light breeze. Long balls and crosses affected. ๐ค Mohamed Salah (Egypt) ๐ก 7.48 Avg Rating ๐งฉ Position: ST (Alt: RAM, RM) ๐ฏ Over 1.5 Shots On Target ๐โฆ
Dropping odds will be HUGE during the World Cup ๐
Follow the smart money and not the stats using @PropprPlayerBot
Follow the smart money and not the stats using @PropprPlayerBot
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
๐ฉ if youโre a tipster, content creator or have telegram channel of a decent size and would like to try out @PropprPlayerBot @PropprTeamBot @PropprArbBot
Send a message to @zinqgram
Also huge incentives to offer your community to ๐
Send a message to @zinqgram
Also huge incentives to offer your community to ๐
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VIEW IN TELEGRAM
4 Reasons to use @PropprPlayerBot during the World Cup ๐
1. ๐จ Three Advanced Alert Types
The bot scans the betting landscape for three profitable alerts:
* Market Average Alerts: Highlights massive price outliers (e.g., prop at 12.0 odds vs. 10.0 market average).
* Dropping Odds Alerts: Signals market crashes on specific props to beat bookies before price slashes.
* Value Alerts: Uses historical stats and matchups to deliver calculated edge recommendations.
2. ๐ The /Team Command
Pull player projections across every market. Verify if props are locks or traps. It crunches numbers, compares probabilities against live odds, and tracks niche categories like "free-kick shots" for a massive edge.
3. ๐ฏ Opposition Position Stats
Analyze how specific positions perform against upcoming opponents. Check striker stats vs. Mexico's backline, exact foul rates, and exploit soft defensive lines before the public catches on.
4. ๐ The /Each Command
Calculate the exact probability of two players achieving the same statistic. Build high-value, correlated same-game parlays using the correlation engine without guessing the math.
1. ๐จ Three Advanced Alert Types
The bot scans the betting landscape for three profitable alerts:
* Market Average Alerts: Highlights massive price outliers (e.g., prop at 12.0 odds vs. 10.0 market average).
* Dropping Odds Alerts: Signals market crashes on specific props to beat bookies before price slashes.
* Value Alerts: Uses historical stats and matchups to deliver calculated edge recommendations.
2. ๐ The /Team Command
Pull player projections across every market. Verify if props are locks or traps. It crunches numbers, compares probabilities against live odds, and tracks niche categories like "free-kick shots" for a massive edge.
3. ๐ฏ Opposition Position Stats
Analyze how specific positions perform against upcoming opponents. Check striker stats vs. Mexico's backline, exact foul rates, and exploit soft defensive lines before the public catches on.
4. ๐ The /Each Command
Calculate the exact probability of two players achieving the same statistic. Build high-value, correlated same-game parlays using the correlation engine without guessing the math.
Forwarded from Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ
๐ England vs New Zealand
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00
๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand)
๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW)
๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance)
๐ Value: 19.7%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 0.75u
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ซ Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 1, 0
๐งฉ RAM's vs England:
0,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs England:
-,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ LW's vs England:
-,-,2,-,-,-,-,-,0,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.20
๐ England vs New Zealand
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00
๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand)
๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating
๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW)
๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots
๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365)
๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance)
๐ Value: 19.7%
๐ฐ Recommended stake: 0.75u
๐ Appearances (started*): 10 (8) / 10
๐ฃ Avg Mins: 78 | ๐ซ Per game: 0.30
๐ Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 1, 0
๐งฉ RAM's vs England:
0,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ AM's vs England:
-,-,-,0,-,0,-,-,-,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.00
๐งฉ LW's vs England:
-,-,2,-,-,-,-,-,0,- | ๐ซ Per game: 0.20
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Another pick to take on limitless for these World Cup warm-up friendlies. โฝ๏ธ๐
Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia
NO @ 50c ๐
We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harder to find out the statistics to get our confirmation bias that this is a genuine trend and not just a one-off. ๐ค๐
But just from what I could find from recent friendlies:
Denmark 60% ๐ 53%
Netherlands 48% ๐ 56%
Spain 72% ๐ 60%
France 64% ๐ 56%
Mexico 75% ๐ 54%
Saudi Arabia 64% ๐ 60%
Canada 66% ๐ 67%
Croatia will be playing Slovenia in Croatia, so there won't be the weather conditions to factor in, but we'll be banking on the trend continuing of the drop-off in the 2nd half ๐ค๐
Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia
NO @ 50c ๐
We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harder to find out the statistics to get our confirmation bias that this is a genuine trend and not just a one-off. ๐ค๐
But just from what I could find from recent friendlies:
Denmark 60% ๐ 53%
Netherlands 48% ๐ 56%
Spain 72% ๐ 60%
France 64% ๐ 56%
Mexico 75% ๐ 54%
Saudi Arabia 64% ๐ 60%
Canada 66% ๐ 67%
Croatia will be playing Slovenia in Croatia, so there won't be the weather conditions to factor in, but we'll be banking on the trend continuing of the drop-off in the 2nd half ๐ค๐
Using the /Matchup command in @PropprPlayerbot it fancies Musiala to have more succ. dribbles than Pulisic at a whopping 59.8% Chance.
This is a market we can bet on Limitless
Musiala to record more successful dribbles than Pulisic @ 52.3c
โ Match Up Succ. Dribbles
๐ USA vs Germany
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 06 Jun 26 18:30
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.67 (59.8% Chance)
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 3.99 (25.1% Chance)
๐ Jamal Musiala (Germany) vs USA
โ Succ. Dribbles - 2.17
โ = Started
0โ, 2โ, 2โ, 3โ, 1โ, 5โ
๐ Christian Pulisic (USA) vs Germany
โ Succ. Dribbles - 1.30
โ = Started
1, 1, 1โ, 1, 0, 4โ, 1โ, 2โ, 0โ, 2โ
Now, of course, with friendlies, we are expecting some kind of rotation. Pulisic only played 45 minutes in USA's win versus Senegal, where Musiala played the full 90 minutes in their win against Finland in their recent friendly.
Both teams do have looked like to have lined up with their strongest possible teams. So I am expecting both players to get a decent amount of minutes and we can just hope that the data serves us right and Musiala can weave his way to a winner for us.
This is a market we can bet on Limitless
Musiala to record more successful dribbles than Pulisic @ 52.3c
โ Match Up Succ. Dribbles
๐ USA vs Germany
๐ Friendlies
โฐ 06 Jun 26 18:30
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.67 (59.8% Chance)
๐ค Christian Pulisic (USA) to have more succ. dribbles than
๐ค Jamal Musiala (Germany)
โโ๐ฅ Model Odds: 3.99 (25.1% Chance)
๐ Jamal Musiala (Germany) vs USA
โ Succ. Dribbles - 2.17
โ = Started
0โ, 2โ, 2โ, 3โ, 1โ, 5โ
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ |
| 88.5% | 63.7% | 36.8% | 17.4% | 6.9% |
| 1.13 | 1.57 | 2.71 | 5.74 | 14.50 |
๐ Christian Pulisic (USA) vs Germany
โ Succ. Dribbles - 1.30
โ = Started
1, 1, 1โ, 1, 0, 4โ, 1โ, 2โ, 0โ, 2โ
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ |
| 72.7% | 37.3% | 14.3% | 4.3% |
| 1.37 | 2.68 | 7.00 | 23.20 |
Now, of course, with friendlies, we are expecting some kind of rotation. Pulisic only played 45 minutes in USA's win versus Senegal, where Musiala played the full 90 minutes in their win against Finland in their recent friendly.
Both teams do have looked like to have lined up with their strongest possible teams. So I am expecting both players to get a decent amount of minutes and we can just hope that the data serves us right and Musiala can weave his way to a winner for us.
Proppr Player Bot ๐คโฝ๏ธ
โก๏ธ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT โก๏ธ ๐ England vs New Zealand ๐ Friendlies โฐ 6 Jun 26 21:00 ๐ค Elijah Just (New Zealand) ๐ก 6.60 Avg Rating ๐งฉ Position: RAM (Alt: AM, LW) ๐ซ Under 0.5 Shots ๐ Bookmaker Odds: 2.2 (Bet365) ๐ฅ Model Odds: 1.8 (54% chance) ๐ Value: 19.7%โฆ
Winner โ
๐1
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Another pick to take on limitless for these World Cup warm-up friendlies. โฝ๏ธ๐ Friendlies: Croatia higher 2nd-half possession than 1st vs Slovenia NO @ 50c ๐ We had a winner last time with our sub goal scorer in the France game, but it has been a bit harderโฆ
No luck on Musiala last night as Pulsic won 3-1 on successful dribbles ๐ช
But Croatia end the first half with a VERY strong 68% possession, we now just need them to to score 68% or less in the 2nd half ๐
But Croatia end the first half with a VERY strong 68% possession, we now just need them to to score 68% or less in the 2nd half ๐
Bet365 currently have priced up 'Goalscorer Match Bets' now the rules are if its a draw the stakes are refunded.
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model and this is the TL:DR of each market if there's any value.
Sadly only singles on these so might be worth doubling up with some other markets if the prices are too short for you
1๏ธโฃ Messi vs. Ronaldo ๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น
โข Odds: Messi 1.61 | Ronaldo 2.20
โข Model: Messi 3.85 goals | Ronaldo 3.51 goals
โข True Win %: Messi 47.37% | Tie 14.86% | Ronaldo 37.45%
โ Play: Pass. Messi's True DNB odds (~1.79) make the 1.61 offer no value.
2๏ธโฃ Kane vs. Haaland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐ณ๐ด
โข Odds: Kane 1.44 | Haaland 2.62
โข Model: Kane 5.52 goals | Haaland 4.02 goals
โข True Win %: Kane 60.04% | Tie 11.70% | Haaland 25.38%
โ Play: Kane @ 1.44. Slight value; 1.44 beats model's True DNB (~1.42).
3๏ธโฃ Vinicius Jr. vs. Alvarez ๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท
โข Odds: Vinicius 1.83 | Alvarez 1.83
โข Model: Vinicius 2.61 goals | Alvarez 1.93 goals
โข True Win %: Vinicius 52.98% | Tie 18.49% | Alvarez 28.53%
โ Play: Vinicius Jr. @ 1.83. Great value; 1.83 beats True DNB (~1.54) and Double Chance (1.40).
4๏ธโฃ Saka vs. Dembele ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ซ๐ท
โข Odds: Saka 2.50 | Dembele 1.50
โข Model: Saka 0.95 goals | Dembele 1.29 goals
โข True Win %: Saka 27.46% | Tie 28.22% | Dembele 44.32%
โ Play: Pass. Dembele's True DNB (~1.62) makes 1.50 negative EV.
5๏ธโฃ Raphinha vs. Bellingham ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
โข Odds: Raphinha 1.53 | Bellingham 2.37
โข Model: Raphinha 2.21 goals | Bellingham 0.58 goals
โข True Win %: Raphinha 74.98% | Tie 16.85% | Bellingham 8.17%
โ Play: Raphinha @ 1.53. Massive value; 1.53 beats model straight win (1.33) and Double Chance (1.09).
6๏ธโฃ Bruno Fernandes vs. Wirtz ๐ต๐น๐ฉ๐ช
โข Odds: Bruno 1.83 | Wirtz 1.83
โข Model: Bruno 1.83 goals | Wirtz 1.35 goals
โข True Win %: Bruno 48.90% | Tie 22.80% | Wirtz 28.30%
โ Play: Bruno Fernandes @ 1.83. Strong play; beats Double Chance (1.39) and True DNB (~1.58).
7๏ธโฃ Lautaro vs. Lukaku ๐ฆ๐ท๐ง๐ช
โข Odds: Martinez 1.83 | Lukaku 1.83
โข Model: Martinez 2.02 goals | Lukaku 2.48 goals
โข True Win %: Martinez 32.09% | Tie 19.00% | Lukaku 48.90%
โ Play: Lukaku @ 1.83. Solid value; crushes Double Chance (1.47) and beats True DNB (~1.66).
I've ran the H2H's through my Poisson projection model and this is the TL:DR of each market if there's any value.
Sadly only singles on these so might be worth doubling up with some other markets if the prices are too short for you
1๏ธโฃ Messi vs. Ronaldo ๐ฆ๐ท๐ต๐น
โข Odds: Messi 1.61 | Ronaldo 2.20
โข Model: Messi 3.85 goals | Ronaldo 3.51 goals
โข True Win %: Messi 47.37% | Tie 14.86% | Ronaldo 37.45%
โ Play: Pass. Messi's True DNB odds (~1.79) make the 1.61 offer no value.
2๏ธโฃ Kane vs. Haaland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ ๐ณ๐ด
โข Odds: Kane 1.44 | Haaland 2.62
โข Model: Kane 5.52 goals | Haaland 4.02 goals
โข True Win %: Kane 60.04% | Tie 11.70% | Haaland 25.38%
โ Play: Kane @ 1.44. Slight value; 1.44 beats model's True DNB (~1.42).
3๏ธโฃ Vinicius Jr. vs. Alvarez ๐ง๐ท๐ฆ๐ท
โข Odds: Vinicius 1.83 | Alvarez 1.83
โข Model: Vinicius 2.61 goals | Alvarez 1.93 goals
โข True Win %: Vinicius 52.98% | Tie 18.49% | Alvarez 28.53%
โ Play: Vinicius Jr. @ 1.83. Great value; 1.83 beats True DNB (~1.54) and Double Chance (1.40).
4๏ธโฃ Saka vs. Dembele ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ซ๐ท
โข Odds: Saka 2.50 | Dembele 1.50
โข Model: Saka 0.95 goals | Dembele 1.29 goals
โข True Win %: Saka 27.46% | Tie 28.22% | Dembele 44.32%
โ Play: Pass. Dembele's True DNB (~1.62) makes 1.50 negative EV.
5๏ธโฃ Raphinha vs. Bellingham ๐ง๐ท๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
โข Odds: Raphinha 1.53 | Bellingham 2.37
โข Model: Raphinha 2.21 goals | Bellingham 0.58 goals
โข True Win %: Raphinha 74.98% | Tie 16.85% | Bellingham 8.17%
โ Play: Raphinha @ 1.53. Massive value; 1.53 beats model straight win (1.33) and Double Chance (1.09).
6๏ธโฃ Bruno Fernandes vs. Wirtz ๐ต๐น๐ฉ๐ช
โข Odds: Bruno 1.83 | Wirtz 1.83
โข Model: Bruno 1.83 goals | Wirtz 1.35 goals
โข True Win %: Bruno 48.90% | Tie 22.80% | Wirtz 28.30%
โ Play: Bruno Fernandes @ 1.83. Strong play; beats Double Chance (1.39) and True DNB (~1.58).
7๏ธโฃ Lautaro vs. Lukaku ๐ฆ๐ท๐ง๐ช
โข Odds: Martinez 1.83 | Lukaku 1.83
โข Model: Martinez 2.02 goals | Lukaku 2.48 goals
โข True Win %: Martinez 32.09% | Tie 19.00% | Lukaku 48.90%
โ Play: Lukaku @ 1.83. Solid value; crushes Double Chance (1.47) and beats True DNB (~1.66).
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