it's always east to get caught up in the hype around a big tournament but there's a lot of things to look out for that will keep you ahead
I break down most of these in the video above but good luck if taking any of these picks π€
I break down most of these in the video above but good luck if taking any of these picks π€
Forwarded from PROF X - Arbitrage & Matched Bets - [FREE]
Free arb starts in just over an hour
βοΈ Bet #1 @ 2.10
βοΈ Bet #2 @ 2.10
π§ Arb Margin: 5.00%
π· Β£50.00 @ 2.10 (Bet #1)
π· Β£50.00 @ 2.10 (Bet #2)
π° Profit: Β£5.00 (Either outcome)
βΈ»
π° RF Low (Bet #1 wins)
β’ Β£47.62 @ 2.10 β Bet #1
β’ Β£52.38 @ 2.10 β Bet #2
β Profit: Β£10.00 (RF ROI: 10.00%)
π° RF High (Bet #2 wins)
β’ Β£52.38 @ 2.10 β Bet #1
β’ Β£47.62 @ 2.10 β Bet #2
β Profit: Β£10.00 (RF ROI: 10.00%)
βοΈ Bet #1 @ 2.10
βοΈ Bet #2 @ 2.10
π§ Arb Margin: 5.00%
π· Β£50.00 @ 2.10 (Bet #1)
π· Β£50.00 @ 2.10 (Bet #2)
π° Profit: Β£5.00 (Either outcome)
βΈ»
π° RF Low (Bet #1 wins)
β’ Β£47.62 @ 2.10 β Bet #1
β’ Β£52.38 @ 2.10 β Bet #2
β Profit: Β£10.00 (RF ROI: 10.00%)
π° RF High (Bet #2 wins)
β’ Β£52.38 @ 2.10 β Bet #1
β’ Β£47.62 @ 2.10 β Bet #2
β Profit: Β£10.00 (RF ROI: 10.00%)
Forwarded from PROF X - Arbitrage & Matched Bets - [FREE]
Forwarded from PROF X - Arbitrage & Matched Bets - [FREE]
[Betfred]
Ollie Watkins To Have Over 0.5 Shots On Target v Freiburg (90min)
2 / 1.61
Can get double max stake down if you have a local betfred shop.
[Betdaq]
Ollie Watkins To Have Over 0.5 Shots On Target v Freiburg (90min)
2 / 1.61
Can get double max stake down if you have a local betfred shop.
[Betdaq]
β€1
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
πͺπΈ Spain: Main realistic winner. Elite attack, strong depth, fair route, and still value after the 19Β’ β 16Β’ move.
π³π± Netherlands: Big upside at 3Β’. Strong attack give them goals, but the route gets nasty fast.
π§πͺ Belgium: Best misprice. Soft group, Golden era is over but still some luxury players, and the market is still pricing them like a dead team.
π¨π Switzerland: Tiny-price route punt. Qatar helps, but Argentina in the R16 likely caps the ceiling.
πΊπΈ USA: Host-nation chaos angle. Pulisic/Balogun/Reyna can score, but Group D and Belgium/Spain make it risky.
π²π½ Mexico: Home advantage + altitude makes 0.4Β’ interesting. England/Brazil likely caps the dream run.
πΊπΎ Uruguay: Bielsa chaos + NΓΊΓ±ez gives real goal upside. Spain/Argentina route is the obvious danger.
ππ· Croatia: Small lottery play. Group goals are possible, but Colombia/Spain plus the ageing core make it thin.
π―π΅ Japan: Dangerous upset team, but Group F is brutal. More longshot than clean route play.
π³π± Netherlands: Big upside at 3Β’. Strong attack give them goals, but the route gets nasty fast.
π§πͺ Belgium: Best misprice. Soft group, Golden era is over but still some luxury players, and the market is still pricing them like a dead team.
π¨π Switzerland: Tiny-price route punt. Qatar helps, but Argentina in the R16 likely caps the ceiling.
πΊπΈ USA: Host-nation chaos angle. Pulisic/Balogun/Reyna can score, but Group D and Belgium/Spain make it risky.
π²π½ Mexico: Home advantage + altitude makes 0.4Β’ interesting. England/Brazil likely caps the dream run.
πΊπΎ Uruguay: Bielsa chaos + NΓΊΓ±ez gives real goal upside. Spain/Argentina route is the obvious danger.
ππ· Croatia: Small lottery play. Group goals are possible, but Colombia/Spain plus the ageing core make it thin.
π―π΅ Japan: Dangerous upset team, but Group F is brutal. More longshot than clean route play.
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
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FIFA World Cup: Top Scorer (Nation)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
π¦ Polymarket Selections:
β½οΈ Football
π Top Scorer (Nation) β 2026 FIFA World Cup
π FIFA World Cup
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Spain Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 5.263 (19Β’π16Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 19.95% (20Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 21Β’ (+31.25%)
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +2.13u (+426%)
β½οΈ Netherlands Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 33.333 (3Β’π2Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 4.23% (4Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 5Β’ (+66.67%)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +8.08u (+3233%)
β½οΈ Belgium Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 166.667 (0.6Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 5.04% (5Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 6Β’ (+900.00%)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +41.42u (+16567%)
β½οΈ Switzerland Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 200.000 (0.5Β’π0.4Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+200.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +19.90u (+19900%)
β½οΈ USA Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+275.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Mexico Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+275.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Uruguay Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 200.000 (0.5Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+200.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +19.90u (+19900%)
β½οΈ Croatia Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 0.47% (0Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.0Β’ (+150.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Japan Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.6Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 0.47% (0Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.0Β’ (+150.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
π Polymarket
π Bookmaker Selections:
π Top Scoring Group
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Group H Top Scoring Group
π Odds: 7.000
βοΈ Chance: 15.76%
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +3.00u (+600%)
β½οΈ Group G Top Scoring Group
π Odds: 13.000
βοΈ Chance: 7.50%
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +3.00u (+1200%)
π Top Scoring Team
π FIFA World Cup
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Belgium Top Scoring Team
π Odds: 21.000 (e/w 1/4) @ Betvictor
βοΈ Chance: 5.04%
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +5.00u (+2000%)
β½οΈ France Top Scoring Team
π Odds: 7.500 @ Betway
βοΈ Chance: 13.41%
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +3.25u (+650%)
If you dont want to watch the video the main context is above this message for each team π
ββββββββββββββββββββ
π¦ Polymarket Selections:
β½οΈ Football
π Top Scorer (Nation) β 2026 FIFA World Cup
π FIFA World Cup
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Spain Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 5.263 (19Β’π16Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 19.95% (20Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 21Β’ (+31.25%)
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +2.13u (+426%)
β½οΈ Netherlands Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 33.333 (3Β’π2Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 4.23% (4Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 5Β’ (+66.67%)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +8.08u (+3233%)
β½οΈ Belgium Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 166.667 (0.6Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 5.04% (5Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 6Β’ (+900.00%)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +41.42u (+16567%)
β½οΈ Switzerland Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 200.000 (0.5Β’π0.4Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+200.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +19.90u (+19900%)
β½οΈ USA Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+275.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Mexico Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+275.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Uruguay Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 200.000 (0.5Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 1.06% (1Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.5Β’ (+200.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +19.90u (+19900%)
β½οΈ Croatia Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.3Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 0.47% (0Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.0Β’ (+150.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
β½οΈ Japan Top Scorer Nation
π Odds: 250.000 (0.4Β’π0.6Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 0.47% (0Β’)
Advised Sell Limit: 1.0Β’ (+150.00%)
π° Stake: 0.10u
π Potential Profit: +24.90u (+24900%)
π Polymarket
π Bookmaker Selections:
π Top Scoring Group
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Group H Top Scoring Group
π Odds: 7.000
βοΈ Chance: 15.76%
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +3.00u (+600%)
β½οΈ Group G Top Scoring Group
π Odds: 13.000
βοΈ Chance: 7.50%
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +3.00u (+1200%)
π Top Scoring Team
π FIFA World Cup
β° 11 Jun 26 20:00
β½οΈ Belgium Top Scoring Team
π Odds: 21.000 (e/w 1/4) @ Betvictor
βοΈ Chance: 5.04%
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +5.00u (+2000%)
β½οΈ France Top Scoring Team
π Odds: 7.500 @ Betway
βοΈ Chance: 13.41%
π° Stake: 0.50u
π Potential Profit: +3.25u (+650%)
If you dont want to watch the video the main context is above this message for each team π
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Huge value trade coming for the Palace vs Vallecano final tonight!
Barely any liquidity however so it will go super quick.
If you miss it can set buy limits at 30Β’ or less
Barely any liquidity however so it will go super quick.
If you miss it can set buy limits at 30Β’ or less
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Polymarket do not offer markets on players to be booked but tonight we effectively can.
UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Yellow Cards
ββββββββββββββββββββ
π Current Prices
β Trade PathΓ© IsmaΓ«l Ciss: 14.0Β’ π
β οΈ TRADE WITH CAUTION now I'm about 90% sure if Ciss is booked tonight he will move to #1 based on alphabetical order as Ndour is currently listed #1 despite having played more games and more minutes then #2 currently and it says in the polymarket rules;
"If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically."
so the order would be;
1. Ciss
2. Ndour
3. PongraΔiΔ
Shopping around the market average price of 2.39 gives him a whopping implied probability of 41.95% (2.39 odds)
But Using the more sensible @PropprPlayerBot gives him a 20.2% (4.96 odds) chance of getting booked
πCB Pathe Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) vs Crystal Palace - 0.29
β° 27 May 26 20:00
πͺπΊ Europa Conference League
β β β β β β β β β β
so even meeting in the midpoint of Market bias and my model we have a 31.07% (3.22 odds) chance and this market effectively allows us to take him at 14c (7.14 odds)
So realistically anything below 30c is a great value position to hold
UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Yellow Cards
ββββββββββββββββββββ
π Current Prices
β Trade PathΓ© IsmaΓ«l Ciss: 14.0Β’ π
β οΈ TRADE WITH CAUTION now I'm about 90% sure if Ciss is booked tonight he will move to #1 based on alphabetical order as Ndour is currently listed #1 despite having played more games and more minutes then #2 currently and it says in the polymarket rules;
"If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically."
so the order would be;
1. Ciss
2. Ndour
3. PongraΔiΔ
Shopping around the market average price of 2.39 gives him a whopping implied probability of 41.95% (2.39 odds)
But Using the more sensible @PropprPlayerBot gives him a 20.2% (4.96 odds) chance of getting booked
πCB Pathe Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) vs Crystal Palace - 0.29
β° 27 May 26 20:00
πͺπΊ Europa Conference League
β β β β β β β β β β
| Yes | No |
| 20.2% | 79.8% |
| 4.96 | 1.25 |
so even meeting in the midpoint of Market bias and my model we have a 31.07% (3.22 odds) chance and this market effectively allows us to take him at 14c (7.14 odds)
So realistically anything below 30c is a great value position to hold
Seen this tweet...
For 2026, if Iβm looking for the team that could become the 12th semi-finalist since 1986 priced above 25/1, Iβm not just asking who is good.
Iβm asking:
Who has a route where they can realistically survive the group, win one or two swing knockout games, and suddenly find themselves one result from the final?
I've picked out 7 of the teams I think could do it in this X post including a 100/1 I think could genuinely do it π΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώπ
https://x.com/ProfessorXBets/status/2059672504612917677?s=20
likes and reposts really appreciated
For 2026, if Iβm looking for the team that could become the 12th semi-finalist since 1986 priced above 25/1, Iβm not just asking who is good.
Iβm asking:
Who has a route where they can realistically survive the group, win one or two swing knockout games, and suddenly find themselves one result from the final?
I've picked out 7 of the teams I think could do it in this X post including a 100/1 I think could genuinely do it π΄σ §σ ’σ ³σ £σ ΄σ Ώπ
https://x.com/ProfessorXBets/status/2059672504612917677?s=20
likes and reposts really appreciated
Forwarded from PROF X - Arbitrage & Matched Bets - [FREE]
There's a LOT of good boosts tonight
All boosts based on Β£10 stake an guaranteed profit options
As always these are the boosts you can back with confidence that you're getting value so can arb/lay against them or let them run.
[BoyleSports]
Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano
First Half Over 0.5 Goals
2 / 1.57
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.74 (Β£4.30)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.74 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Bet365]
Crystal Palace To Lift The Trophy
2 / 1.60
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.50 (Β£4.00)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.50 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betano]
Crystal Palace To Score First
2.375 / 1.94
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.24 (Β£4.35)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.24 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[BetFred / Paddy Power]
Ismaila Sarr 1+ Shots On Target
2 / 1.71
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.70 (Β£2.90)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£11.69 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betway]
Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano
Correct Score 1-2
19 / 16.5
Best exchange: Smarkets / Matchbook / Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.52 (Β£25.00)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£11.51 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[ArrowBet]
IsmaΓ―la Sarr 1+ Shots On Target
Player Must Start
2.2 / 1.69
Best exchange: Smarkets
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.51 (Β£2.55)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£6.51 (Β£5)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betfair Sportsbook]
Crystal Palace To Score Over 0.5 Goals In The First Half
2.5 / 2.32
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.78 (Β£1.80)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.77 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Paddy Power Shop]
Crystal Palace Match Odds
2.4 / 2.24
Best exchange: Matchbook / Smarkets / Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.71 (Β£1.60)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.72 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[VirginBet]
Jean-Philippe Mateta To Score Or Assist
2.702 / 2.59
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.43 (Β£1.12)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.43 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[WilliamHill]
Crystal Palace To Score The First Goal
2 / 1.96
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.20 (Β£0.40)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.21 (Β£10)
All boosts based on Β£10 stake an guaranteed profit options
As always these are the boosts you can back with confidence that you're getting value so can arb/lay against them or let them run.
[BoyleSports]
Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano
First Half Over 0.5 Goals
2 / 1.57
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.74 (Β£4.30)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.74 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Bet365]
Crystal Palace To Lift The Trophy
2 / 1.60
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.50 (Β£4.00)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.50 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betano]
Crystal Palace To Score First
2.375 / 1.94
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£2.24 (Β£4.35)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£12.24 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[BetFred / Paddy Power]
Ismaila Sarr 1+ Shots On Target
2 / 1.71
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.70 (Β£2.90)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£11.69 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betway]
Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano
Correct Score 1-2
19 / 16.5
Best exchange: Smarkets / Matchbook / Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.52 (Β£25.00)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£11.51 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[ArrowBet]
IsmaΓ―la Sarr 1+ Shots On Target
Player Must Start
2.2 / 1.69
Best exchange: Smarkets
Profit (Risk Free): Β£1.51 (Β£2.55)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£6.51 (Β£5)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Betfair Sportsbook]
Crystal Palace To Score Over 0.5 Goals In The First Half
2.5 / 2.32
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.78 (Β£1.80)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.77 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[Paddy Power Shop]
Crystal Palace Match Odds
2.4 / 2.24
Best exchange: Matchbook / Smarkets / Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.71 (Β£1.60)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.72 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[VirginBet]
Jean-Philippe Mateta To Score Or Assist
2.702 / 2.59
Best exchange: Betdaq
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.43 (Β£1.12)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.43 (Β£10)
ββββββββββββββββββββ
[WilliamHill]
Crystal Palace To Score The First Goal
2 / 1.96
Best exchange: Matchbook
Profit (Risk Free): Β£0.20 (Β£0.40)
Lay stake (Risk Free): Β£10.21 (Β£10)
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Polymarket do not offer markets on players to be booked but tonight we effectively can. UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Yellow Cards ββββββββββββββββββββ π Current Prices β Trade PathΓ© IsmaΓ«l Ciss: 14.0Β’ π β οΈ TRADE WITH CAUTION now I'm about 90% sureβ¦
BOOM π₯
CISS BOOKED π₯
WINNER @ 14c for a huge +614% π
Will have to wait for the update on UEFA.com for the market to resolve
CISS BOOKED π₯
WINNER @ 14c for a huge +614% π
Will have to wait for the update on UEFA.com for the market to resolve
π1