Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Right boys and girls, there's a small chance that I may be away this weekend Due to personal reasons, but I thought I would leave you with some free game that hopefully helps you learn something, and also you can start winning just like we have been doing over the last week.
Whilst I speak a lot about my bots and models, it all comes down to a simple age-old theory of simply betting on positive value.
Now I know 11 minutes might seem like a long time, but you can watch this on 1.5x time speed if you have to Because I know that your TikTok brain attention spans are cooked. π
But in this video I cover the roulette trap by using a classic casino example of the house edge and explain how that also works in betting and trading.
Implied probability and true probability where you will now learn how to convert odds into probabilities and understand whether the likelihood of something happening is better or worse than it seems.
The bookmakers margin which is the equivalent of the roulette zero that bookmakers use to almost guarantee themselves a profit regardless of whether who wins or loses.
And finally how to find your edge. This includes knowing when to NOT place a bet and also when a bet is actually in your favour.
Stop betting on "vibes" and start applying math to your choices to see a real increase in your long-term ROI.
wins like these over the last few days haven't been flukes. Everything explained in this video is the EXACT reason why I took them, not because I did some crazy research or had 'insider' info...
Whilst I speak a lot about my bots and models, it all comes down to a simple age-old theory of simply betting on positive value.
Now I know 11 minutes might seem like a long time, but you can watch this on 1.5x time speed if you have to Because I know that your TikTok brain attention spans are cooked. π
But in this video I cover the roulette trap by using a classic casino example of the house edge and explain how that also works in betting and trading.
Implied probability and true probability where you will now learn how to convert odds into probabilities and understand whether the likelihood of something happening is better or worse than it seems.
The bookmakers margin which is the equivalent of the roulette zero that bookmakers use to almost guarantee themselves a profit regardless of whether who wins or loses.
And finally how to find your edge. This includes knowing when to NOT place a bet and also when a bet is actually in your favour.
Stop betting on "vibes" and start applying math to your choices to see a real increase in your long-term ROI.
wins like these over the last few days haven't been flukes. Everything explained in this video is the EXACT reason why I took them, not because I did some crazy research or had 'insider' info...
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Right boys and girls, there's a small chance that I may be away this weekend Due to personal reasons, but I thought I would leave you with some free game that hopefully helps you learn something, and also you can start winning just like we have been doingβ¦
if you have 11 minutes to spare watch this and if you learn one thing your sports picks will improve by at least 17.38%
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
This game kicks off in 2 hours.
I have acquired a source of a direct feed from the stadium.
With this I'll be using it provide a live dictation of the game for you.
Why?
Polymarket is known for having a considerbale delay on live feeds enough that if you was to know a goal has been scored before it happens you would potentially be able to place a trade before the price adjusts.
This is just a trial and no idea if the delay will be enough but I'm not losing anything by sharing it with you.
There are only 4 markets for this game but if a goal is scored a trade could be placed on any of them to potentially score a winner.
Scenario A:
The most obvious one is, if I say that there's been a goal, you simply place a trade on the over at whatever line you feel like placing a trade on.
If the score in the game is 1-0 and you place a trade on over 1.5, then that would mean that you have placed a trade that has won before the market has adjusted.
Scenario B:
If the score is 0-0 and you place a trade on over 2.5 goals once a goal has been scored, you will not have a winning trade, but you will have a trade now that will have a positive exit price once the prize adjusts to accommodate that, there has now been a goal scored.
Scenario C:
The away team takes a shock lead and you place a trade on them at their crazy high entry price. You will now have a considerable profit to trade out on or you can just let it run for a little bit. This works for placing the home team no bet. Or taking a chance on any of the spreads.
theres more scenarios then then this I'm sure you can think of but these are just a few.
This game is however one of pretty low liquidity, and I can imagine the liquidity will drop even lower once the game is in play. So please do trade with caution and look at how much of the markets are available for you to actually trade if you do go in and try to enter the markets.
The worst possible scenario of course is by not understanding this and losing money, trying to place a trade and it filling in at a wrong price or just not one where you can make any profit from.
I have acquired a source of a direct feed from the stadium.
With this I'll be using it provide a live dictation of the game for you.
Why?
Polymarket is known for having a considerbale delay on live feeds enough that if you was to know a goal has been scored before it happens you would potentially be able to place a trade before the price adjusts.
This is just a trial and no idea if the delay will be enough but I'm not losing anything by sharing it with you.
There are only 4 markets for this game but if a goal is scored a trade could be placed on any of them to potentially score a winner.
Scenario A:
The most obvious one is, if I say that there's been a goal, you simply place a trade on the over at whatever line you feel like placing a trade on.
If the score in the game is 1-0 and you place a trade on over 1.5, then that would mean that you have placed a trade that has won before the market has adjusted.
Scenario B:
If the score is 0-0 and you place a trade on over 2.5 goals once a goal has been scored, you will not have a winning trade, but you will have a trade now that will have a positive exit price once the prize adjusts to accommodate that, there has now been a goal scored.
Scenario C:
The away team takes a shock lead and you place a trade on them at their crazy high entry price. You will now have a considerable profit to trade out on or you can just let it run for a little bit. This works for placing the home team no bet. Or taking a chance on any of the spreads.
theres more scenarios then then this I'm sure you can think of but these are just a few.
This game is however one of pretty low liquidity, and I can imagine the liquidity will drop even lower once the game is in play. So please do trade with caution and look at how much of the markets are available for you to actually trade if you do go in and try to enter the markets.
The worst possible scenario of course is by not understanding this and losing money, trying to place a trade and it filling in at a wrong price or just not one where you can make any profit from.
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
This game kicks off in 2 hours. I have acquired a source of a direct feed from the stadium. With this I'll be using it provide a live dictation of the game for you. Why? Polymarket is known for having a considerbale delay on live feeds enough that if youβ¦
forgot to send this here πΆβπ«οΈ
2nd half kicks off in 15 mins, easy chance to catch odds like this π
Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Right boys and girls, there's a small chance that I may be away this weekend Due to personal reasons, but I thought I would leave you with some free game that hopefully helps you learn something, and also you can start winning just like we have been doingβ¦
another β
in the bag
wont be any bets/trades from me this weekend so your best thing to do is watch this video I posted earlier and your weekend will improve minimum 7x
I'll still be active responding to messages and stuff but will be afk for most of it π
wont be any bets/trades from me this weekend so your best thing to do is watch this video I posted earlier and your weekend will improve minimum 7x
I'll still be active responding to messages and stuff but will be afk for most of it π
Forwarded from Proppr NBA Bot ππ€ [Beta]
β‘οΈ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT β‘οΈ
π Cavaliers vs Raptors
πΊπΈ NBA
β° 18/04 18:00
Donovan Mitchell | CLE | PG | vs TOR
ββββββββββββββββ
π Under 37.5 PRA @ 1.83 (Bet365)
π Value: +72.5%
π» Model odds: 1.06 | βοΈ Chance: 94.3%
π° Recommended stake: 1.5u
π Proj. Mins: 32.4 | π₯ Proj. PRA: 28.8
Hit Rate: L5 40% | L10 50% | H2H 50%
π Last 10 Games Under 37.5 (5/10):
42β 50β 34β 19β 41β 16β 38β 47β 37β 30β
β’ DvP: 25th (TOR weak vs PG)
β’ Home game: -11% historical boost
β’ H2H: Avg 34.5 pra in L2 vs TOR
β’ Teammate OUT: Thomas Bryant
π Shot Profile Edge:
β’ Above-Break 3: 35% vs 33% allowed βΌ
β’ Mid-Range: 11% vs 36% allowed βΌ
π Cavaliers vs Raptors
πΊπΈ NBA
β° 18/04 18:00
Donovan Mitchell | CLE | PG | vs TOR
ββββββββββββββββ
π Under 37.5 PRA @ 1.83 (Bet365)
π Value: +72.5%
π» Model odds: 1.06 | βοΈ Chance: 94.3%
π° Recommended stake: 1.5u
π Proj. Mins: 32.4 | π₯ Proj. PRA: 28.8
Hit Rate: L5 40% | L10 50% | H2H 50%
π Last 10 Games Under 37.5 (5/10):
42β 50β 34β 19β 41β 16β 38β 47β 37β 30β
β’ DvP: 25th (TOR weak vs PG)
β’ Home game: -11% historical boost
β’ H2H: Avg 34.5 pra in L2 vs TOR
β’ Teammate OUT: Thomas Bryant
π Shot Profile Edge:
β’ Above-Break 3: 35% vs 33% allowed βΌ
β’ Mid-Range: 11% vs 36% allowed βΌ
β€1
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Proppr NBA Bot ππ€ [Beta]
β‘οΈ PLAYER PROP VALUE ALERT β‘οΈ π Cavaliers vs Raptors πΊπΈ NBA β° 18/04 18:00 Donovan Mitchell | CLE | PG | vs TOR ββββββββββββββββ π Under 37.5 PRA @ 1.83 (Bet365) π Value: +72.5% π» Model odds: 1.06 | βοΈ Chance: 94.3% π° Recommended stake: 1.5u π Proj. Mins:β¦
oh yeah and my FREE NBA props bot is live for the play offs so go crazy
@PropprNBABotBetaBot
all feed back is appreciated as this is still a work in progress π
@PropprNBABotBetaBot
all feed back is appreciated as this is still a work in progress π
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Hope you all had a very good weekend!
First things first I've gone back and tracked the last two weeks of free trades and no surprise is 74 trades of pure fire.
Now the stats will be slightly inflated due to fact for now I've tracked everything that was sent as opposed to what was available. Going forward I will fairly tracked trades that either;
a) had a lot of volume at the time of posting
or
b) my personal buy limit orders were filled
if neither A or B happen they wont contribute to future tracking
but you can follow and keep up here
https://sharptipsters.com/tipster/professorxpolymarketfree
First things first I've gone back and tracked the last two weeks of free trades and no surprise is 74 trades of pure fire.
Now the stats will be slightly inflated due to fact for now I've tracked everything that was sent as opposed to what was available. Going forward I will fairly tracked trades that either;
a) had a lot of volume at the time of posting
or
b) my personal buy limit orders were filled
if neither A or B happen they wont contribute to future tracking
but you can follow and keep up here
https://sharptipsters.com/tipster/professorxpolymarketfree
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
π’ Copy Trade Update β Important Changes for This Week
I want to be completely transparent about the first couple of weeks of copy trading.
Depending on when you joined, your results may have varied. For a lot of people, the returns have not been as strong as the free trades. That is clearly a problem.
For anyone who has a negative return when they joined they was all refunded the $29.99 they paid.
If people are winning consistently from the free channel but getting worse results after paying, something needs to change. Simple as that.
So here is what is happening going forward π
βΈ»
π Whatβs Changing
The MAIN change is the copy trade will now operate as a night before service. So Mondays trade will be going live in the next few hours so pre-order the $29.99 wallet and I will add you tonight > @ProfXPolymarketBot
The structure is being adjusted to make the copy trade more valuable and more consistent.
Over the past week, you will have noticed I have been posting free trades almost every day. That part is not changing.
What is changing is the size of the lists.
Copy traders will now receive the full list of selections every time.
For example
If there are 10 picks on a given day
Copy traders get all 10
Free channel may only receive 2 or 3 of those picks at random
βΈ»
π― Why This Is Better
This brings the edge back to where it should be.
β’ Full exposure to the model for copy traders
β’ Smaller, selective samples for free users
β’ Less variance caused by missing key picks
β’ More consistent long-term performance
The issue before was not necessarily the quality of the picks, but how fragmented the execution was depending on what you received.
βΈ»
π The Goal
The goal is simple
Make the copy trade the best way to follow the strategy
βΈ»
π¬ Final Note
If you have stuck through the early phase, I appreciate it.
I charge for this service not for personal gain but simply to allow me to be in a position to provide the service at highest level and a consistent basis.
A simple case of you help me and I help you and ultimately we all win π
Letβs run it back properly this week π
I want to be completely transparent about the first couple of weeks of copy trading.
Depending on when you joined, your results may have varied. For a lot of people, the returns have not been as strong as the free trades. That is clearly a problem.
For anyone who has a negative return when they joined they was all refunded the $29.99 they paid.
If people are winning consistently from the free channel but getting worse results after paying, something needs to change. Simple as that.
So here is what is happening going forward π
βΈ»
π Whatβs Changing
The MAIN change is the copy trade will now operate as a night before service. So Mondays trade will be going live in the next few hours so pre-order the $29.99 wallet and I will add you tonight > @ProfXPolymarketBot
The structure is being adjusted to make the copy trade more valuable and more consistent.
Over the past week, you will have noticed I have been posting free trades almost every day. That part is not changing.
What is changing is the size of the lists.
Copy traders will now receive the full list of selections every time.
For example
If there are 10 picks on a given day
Copy traders get all 10
Free channel may only receive 2 or 3 of those picks at random
βΈ»
π― Why This Is Better
This brings the edge back to where it should be.
β’ Full exposure to the model for copy traders
β’ Smaller, selective samples for free users
β’ Less variance caused by missing key picks
β’ More consistent long-term performance
The issue before was not necessarily the quality of the picks, but how fragmented the execution was depending on what you received.
βΈ»
π The Goal
The goal is simple
Make the copy trade the best way to follow the strategy
βΈ»
π¬ Final Note
If you have stuck through the early phase, I appreciate it.
I charge for this service not for personal gain but simply to allow me to be in a position to provide the service at highest level and a consistent basis.
A simple case of you help me and I help you and ultimately we all win π
Letβs run it back properly this week π
Free bet via @PropprPlayerBot
π€ Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace)
π‘ 7.30 Avg Rating
𧩠Position: RAM (Alt: RW)
π¦π― Over 0.5 SOT Outside Box
π Bookmaker Odds: 10 (Bet365)
π₯ Model Odds: 3.0 (34% chance)
π Value: 238.0%
π° Recommended stake: 0.25u
π Appearances (started*): 10 (9) / 10
π£ Avg Mins: 87 | π¦π― Per game: 0.30
π Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0, 0*, 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 0*, 0*
𧩠RAM's vs West Ham United:
1,1 | π¦π― Per game: 1.00
π€ Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace)
π‘ 7.30 Avg Rating
𧩠Position: RAM (Alt: RW)
π¦π― Over 0.5 SOT Outside Box
π Bookmaker Odds: 10 (Bet365)
π₯ Model Odds: 3.0 (34% chance)
π Value: 238.0%
π° Recommended stake: 0.25u
π Appearances (started*): 10 (9) / 10
π£ Avg Mins: 87 | π¦π― Per game: 0.30
π Per Game (Last 10): 1*, 0, 0*, 1*, 0*, 0*, 0*, 1*, 0*, 0*
𧩠RAM's vs West Ham United:
1,1 | π¦π― Per game: 1.00
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
This is your 5 min warning if you want to get all of Fridays copytrade picks they're about to go in now
https://t.me/ProfXPolymarketBot
$17 for the rest of the wek π
https://t.me/ProfXPolymarketBot
$17 for the rest of the wek π
Telegram
Prof X Polymarket Copytrade
Copy my Polymarket trades automatically. 3 wallets, 2 strategies. Weekly subscription with refund guarantee.
Forwarded from Professor X - Polymarket Sports [FREE]
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
First real deep dive into some World Cup Polymarkets π
Some VERY interesting shouts in this list but again these aren't taken because I genuinely think they'll win but because they have a chance of winning which is better then whats available.
I made a full video explaining the how's and why's of each pick including selections like South Africa where you could make a 200%+ gain easily if they're able to beat Mexico in the opening game of the tournament
TL:DR:
- we're not backing all of them
- most if not al of these WILL lose
- dca and good exit timing could easily see 200%+ gains
- schedules for some teams make the postions even more attractive
π FIFA World Cup Group A
β° Outrights
β½οΈ South Africa Group Winner
π Odds: 20.0 (5Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 6.98% (7Β’)
π° Stake: 0.2u
π Potential Profit: +3.80u (+1900%)
π FIFA World Cup Group B
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Switzerland NO
π Odds: 2.04 (49Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 52.33% (52Β’)
π° Stake: 0.75u
π Potential Profit: +0.78u (+104%)
π FIFA World Cup Group C
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Scotland Group Winner
π Odds: 20.41 (4.9Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 8.12% (8Β’)
π° Stake: 0.5u
π Potential Profit: +9.71u (+1942%)
π FIFA World Cup Group E
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Germany NO
π Odds: 3.57 (28Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 31.44% (31Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +0.64u (+257%)
π FIFA World Cup Group F
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Sweden Group Winner
π Odds: 5.88 (14Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 17.22% (17Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +1.22u (+488%)
π FIFA World Cup Group H
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Uruguay Group Winner
π Odds: 5.88 (17Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 18.63% (19Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +1.22u (+488%)
π FIFA World Cup Group I
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Senegal Group Winner
π Odds: 14.29 (7Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 10.11% (10Β’)
π° Stake: 0.2u
π Potential Profit: +2.66u (+1330%)
Some VERY interesting shouts in this list but again these aren't taken because I genuinely think they'll win but because they have a chance of winning which is better then whats available.
I made a full video explaining the how's and why's of each pick including selections like South Africa where you could make a 200%+ gain easily if they're able to beat Mexico in the opening game of the tournament
TL:DR:
- we're not backing all of them
- most if not al of these WILL lose
- dca and good exit timing could easily see 200%+ gains
- schedules for some teams make the postions even more attractive
π FIFA World Cup Group A
β° Outrights
β½οΈ South Africa Group Winner
π Odds: 20.0 (5Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 6.98% (7Β’)
π° Stake: 0.2u
π Potential Profit: +3.80u (+1900%)
π FIFA World Cup Group B
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Switzerland NO
π Odds: 2.04 (49Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 52.33% (52Β’)
π° Stake: 0.75u
π Potential Profit: +0.78u (+104%)
π FIFA World Cup Group C
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Scotland Group Winner
π Odds: 20.41 (4.9Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 8.12% (8Β’)
π° Stake: 0.5u
π Potential Profit: +9.71u (+1942%)
π FIFA World Cup Group E
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Germany NO
π Odds: 3.57 (28Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 31.44% (31Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +0.64u (+257%)
π FIFA World Cup Group F
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Sweden Group Winner
π Odds: 5.88 (14Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 17.22% (17Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +1.22u (+488%)
π FIFA World Cup Group H
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Uruguay Group Winner
π Odds: 5.88 (17Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 18.63% (19Β’)
π° Stake: 0.25u
π Potential Profit: +1.22u (+488%)
π FIFA World Cup Group I
β° Outrights
β½οΈ Senegal Group Winner
π Odds: 14.29 (7Β’)
βοΈ Chance: 10.11% (10Β’)
π° Stake: 0.2u
π Potential Profit: +2.66u (+1330%)
β€1
Professor X Bets 25/26 Free Channel - BET365 (Football, Player Props, Cards & Corners)
π Betis vs Real πͺπΈ Laliga β° 24 Apr 26 20:00 π€ Federico Valverde (Real) π’ 7.80 Avg Rating 𧩠Position: RM (Alt: LCM, RCM) π¦π― Over 0.5 SOT Outside Box π Bookmaker Odds: 3 (Bet365) π₯ Model Odds: 2.3 (44% chance) π Value: 31.0% π° Recommended stake: 0.5u
free bet via @PropprPlayerBot
Professor X Bets 25/26 Free Channel - BET365 (Football, Player Props, Cards & Corners)
π Betis vs Real πͺπΈ Laliga β° 24 Apr 26 20:00 π€ Federico Valverde (Real) π’ 7.80 Avg Rating 𧩠Position: RM (Alt: LCM, RCM) π¦π― Over 0.5 SOT Outside Box π Bookmaker Odds: 3 (Bet365) π₯ Model Odds: 2.3 (44% chance) π Value: 31.0% π° Recommended stake: 0.5u
that should be enough to pay for a double vodka and couple Jager bombs π
Happy Friday team πΊ
Happy Friday team πΊ
Forwarded from Jay (Proppr.io)
π Toronto FC vs Atlanta United
βοΈ π 45.85 (14th) vs π΄ 11.49 (29th)
πΊπΈ Mls
β° 25 Apr 18:00
π¨ 20.1mph moderate wind. Clear match impact.
β³οΈ Over 11.5 Total Corners
π Bookmaker Odds: 3.25 (Bet365)
π° Recommended stake: 0.5u
π Match Projected (Last 5): 10.9
π Toronto FC Match Totals:
4, 11, 11, 11
βοΈ Atlanta United Match Totals:
10, 11
Free bet via @PropprTeamBot
βοΈ π 45.85 (14th) vs π΄ 11.49 (29th)
πΊπΈ Mls
β° 25 Apr 18:00
π¨ 20.1mph moderate wind. Clear match impact.
β³οΈ Over 11.5 Total Corners
π Bookmaker Odds: 3.25 (Bet365)
π° Recommended stake: 0.5u
π Match Projected (Last 5): 10.9
π Toronto FC Match Totals:
4, 11, 11, 11
βοΈ Atlanta United Match Totals:
10, 11
Free bet via @PropprTeamBot
Jay (Proppr.io)
π Toronto FC vs Atlanta United βοΈ π 45.85 (14th) vs π΄ 11.49 (29th) πΊπΈ Mls β° 25 Apr 18:00 π¨ 20.1mph moderate wind. Clear match impact. β³οΈ Over 11.5 Total Corners π Bookmaker Odds: 3.25 (Bet365) π° Recommended stake: 0.5u π Match Projected (Last 5): 10.9 π β¦
Free bet winner β
β€2