NEW: 🇺🇸 President Trump asserts that Iran will be unable to resume its nuclear activities throughout his time in office.

— @PolyPredictionApp

NEW: 🇹🇷 Turkey has officially announced the sale of a massive package of surplus rocket artillery to Ukraine.

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NEW: 🇮🇷 Donald Trump has privately conceded defeat, informing senior aides of his willingness to end the conflict with Iran without a nuclear deal if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. This pivot marks a significant retreat from his initial "unconditional surrender" demand, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, Tehran has aggressively raised its price for reopening the waterway, escalating its requirements into what would constitute a full United States surrender. Iran's new demands include $300 billion in compensation, the release of up to $100 billion in frozen assets, the lifting of all sanctions, a total U.S. troop withdrawal from the entire region, an end to the naval blockade, and the implementation of transit fees on every ship.

— @PolyPredictionApp

NEW: 🇮🇱 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issues a definitive rejection of Palestinian sovereignty, declaring “As long as I am Prime Minister, there will be no Palestinian state — not in Gaza, not in the West Bank. No Fatahstan, no Hamastan”

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NEW: 🇮🇱 Israel has officially rejected the Gaza peace plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to reports from the BBC.

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NEW: 🇺🇸 Senator Chris Murphy has officially confirmed today’s WSJ report, issuing a blunt assessment of the current situation: “Donald Trump has lost this war.

America is weaker, Iran is stronger, the price to reopen the strait increases by the day, the supposed 'deal' that's on the table right now would pay Iran $100 billion a year in order to reopen the strait ... what a victory for Iran.”

— @PolyPredictionApp

NEW: 🇷🇺 Russia and Syria have officially signed an agreement on military cooperation, formalizing a strategic defense partnership between the two nations.

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NEW: 🇮🇷 Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has appointed former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei to a high-level security role, a major move for the nation's strategic leadership.

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NEW: 🇮🇷 Maritime tensions surge as vessels attempting to bypass the Iranian blockade continue to sustain hits. Iran has targeted another oil tanker off the coast of Oman in a fresh escalation.

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NEW: 🇺🇸 Donald Trump is reportedly exerting massive pressure on Israel to halt all attacks and cease escalation against Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon, according to Israeli Channel 13.

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NEW: 🇺🇸 Five months of war with Iran have effectively dismantled U.S. deterrence, depleting critical weapon stockpiles to their lowest possible levels, per the NYT. Over 1,500 Patriot missiles and thousands of long-range munitions have been expended, with replenishment now expected to take at least two years. This supply crisis—compounded by ongoing support for Ukraine—has severely compromised America's ability to respond to threats in Europe and Asia. As Moscow and Beijing monitor the decline, a strategic window has opened for action in Taiwan or Eastern Europe that could redefine the global security order for decades to come.

— @PolyPredictionApp

NEW: 🇺🇸 The United States is reportedly "not bothered" by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s rejection of the Gaza peace plan following his demand for Hamas to disarm first, Axios reports.

— @PolyPredictionApp