World Cup group stage second round is halfway through, OmenX officially launches Hedge to Earn airdrop hedging position activity
The World Cup group stage second round schedule is already halfway through, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many teams still need to decide their fate in the third round. In today’s matches, Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4‑0, Belgium drew 0‑0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2‑2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1‑3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, high‑probability pre‑match outcomes that fail to materialize continue to occur, further amplifying the unilateral position risk for prediction‑market users.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX today officially launches the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop activity, currently offering hedging positions to all Polymarket position holders. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify eligible positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue hedging positions in the corresponding direction; if no related events are matched yet, it will provide recommended position airdrops to help users experience hedging and position management.
OmenX says Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction‑market users move from “unilateral prediction” to a “position‑management” stage. For high‑volatility events such as the World Cup, users can receive up to 500 U in hedging reward credit through OmenX, adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing Polymarket positions. The activity is currently in full swing.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
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The World Cup group stage second round schedule is already halfway through, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many teams still need to decide their fate in the third round. In today’s matches, Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4‑0, Belgium drew 0‑0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2‑2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1‑3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, high‑probability pre‑match outcomes that fail to materialize continue to occur, further amplifying the unilateral position risk for prediction‑market users.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX today officially launches the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop activity, currently offering hedging positions to all Polymarket position holders. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify eligible positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue hedging positions in the corresponding direction; if no related events are matched yet, it will provide recommended position airdrops to help users experience hedging and position management.
OmenX says Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction‑market users move from “unilateral prediction” to a “position‑management” stage. For high‑volatility events such as the World Cup, users can receive up to 500 U in hedging reward credit through OmenX, adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing Polymarket positions. The activity is currently in full swing.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $2.1k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 30.5%.
Reuters reported on the 19th that the office of European Council President Antonio Costa has recently made preliminary diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin, and the Austrian prime minister also urges Europe to use the current momentum to re‑engage in negotiations. Russia says it is willing to dialogue with Europe but demands that Europe abandon pressure or ultimatums based on “Russia’s weakness.”
The Financial Times analyzed on the 21st that there is indeed an opportunity to freeze the war, but this window may close because Putin still believes Russia can achieve more by continuing the conflict. The FT notes the implicit risk that battlefield pressure and the Russian leadership’s assessment of objectives could still outweigh diplomatic incentives.
To date, Russia continues to use ballistic missiles against Ukraine, while Ukraine has expanded long‑range strikes on Moscow, Crimea, and Russian energy facilities. Both sides are still seeking more favorable military and economic leverage. Changes on the battlefield and pressure on Russian energy may drive diplomacy in the coming months, but territorial issues, security guarantees, and oversight mechanisms will still require complex negotiations.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $2.1k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 30.5%.
GollumGekko invested $2.1k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Politics, sector net profit $152k. In that sector they have 1,926 settled trades with a win rate of 1,371/1,926 (71%), including 186 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $115, and this investment is 18.5 times that median.
Reuters reported on the 19th that the office of European Council President Antonio Costa has recently made preliminary diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin, and the Austrian prime minister also urges Europe to use the current momentum to re‑engage in negotiations. Russia says it is willing to dialogue with Europe but demands that Europe abandon pressure or ultimatums based on “Russia’s weakness.”
The Financial Times analyzed on the 21st that there is indeed an opportunity to freeze the war, but this window may close because Putin still believes Russia can achieve more by continuing the conflict. The FT notes the implicit risk that battlefield pressure and the Russian leadership’s assessment of objectives could still outweigh diplomatic incentives.
To date, Russia continues to use ballistic missiles against Ukraine, while Ukraine has expanded long‑range strikes on Moscow, Crimea, and Russian energy facilities. Both sides are still seeking more favorable military and economic leverage. Changes on the battlefield and pressure on Russian energy may drive diplomacy in the coming months, but territorial issues, security guarantees, and oversight mechanisms will still require complex negotiations.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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4 Smart Money Investors Bought “Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Returns to Normal Before July 15”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 27.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 27.5%.
Account 1’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $152k. It has a win rate of 1371/1926 (71%) across 1,926 settled trades in that sector, including 186 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This position is 34.3 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $312k. It has a win rate of 1007/1464 (69%) across 1,464 settled trades in that sector, including 330 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This position is 76.7 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 3’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $280k. It has a win rate of 499/829 (60%) across 829 settled trades in that sector, including 229 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 4’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $5.5k. It has a win rate of 2/2 (100%) across 2 settled trades in that sector, with no trades meeting the < $0.8 purchase / > $0.95 sale criteria.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.2k on “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 61.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.0%.
On the 18th, after the Fed signaled a hawkish stance and the dollar rose to a one‑year high, spot silver fell 3% in a day to $65.96; 9 of 19 policymakers expect a rate hike this year, and market pricing for a December hike briefly rose to 85%.
Today, the United States and Iran concluded the first round of high‑level talks in Switzerland, with Iran saying the talks made good progress, while Qatar and Pakistan announced a joint roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days. After the news, Brent crude fell more than 1%, spot silver rose 1.8% to $66.10 per ounce, and gold also rebounded from a weekly low.
Reuters technical analysis noted that during the sharp decline in March, silver touched a low of $60.94 before gradually stabilizing and breaking through two descending trendlines. Thus, $60.94 forms a key low in this year’s corrective move.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd6a39cef30c927c4d57b5cc519f3a2d0332a9738
Total investment: $3.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.2k on “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 61.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.0%.
Bambi2Hill invested $3.2k, and the market’s top related sector is Finance, with a sector net profit of $5.1k. Across 15 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 12/15 (80%), including 8 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $468.
On the 18th, after the Fed signaled a hawkish stance and the dollar rose to a one‑year high, spot silver fell 3% in a day to $65.96; 9 of 19 policymakers expect a rate hike this year, and market pricing for a December hike briefly rose to 85%.
Today, the United States and Iran concluded the first round of high‑level talks in Switzerland, with Iran saying the talks made good progress, while Qatar and Pakistan announced a joint roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days. After the news, Brent crude fell more than 1%, spot silver rose 1.8% to $66.10 per ounce, and gold also rebounded from a weekly low.
Reuters technical analysis noted that during the sharp decline in March, silver touched a low of $60.94 before gradually stabilizing and breaking through two descending trendlines. Thus, $60.94 forms a key low in this year’s corrective move.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd6a39cef30c927c4d57b5cc519f3a2d0332a9738
Total investment: $3.2k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor bought “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “No” for “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 32.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 66.5%.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs; they may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “No” for “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 32.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 66.5%.
Gucky-45 invested $1.7k, with the market’s top related sector being soccer, sector net profit $797k. In this sector, they have 253 settled trades with a win rate of 48/253 (19%), including 33 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $589.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs; they may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
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3 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will the US Launch a Military Invasion of Iran Before 2027?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will the US launch a military invasion of Iran before 2027?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will the US launch a military invasion of Iran before 2027?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $480k. It has a win rate of 222/388 (57%) across 388 settled trades in that sector, including 103 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.8 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $35.7k. It has a win rate of 160/248 (65%) across 248 settled trades in that sector, including 37 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 75.3 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Trump, with sector net profit of $51.7k. It has a win rate of 153/289 (53%) across 289 settled trades in that sector, including 64 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 279.4 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. users by July 1?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.8k on “No” for “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. customers by July 1?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 22nd that Mythos, during an authorized internal red‑team assessment and in conjunction with other defense and testing tools, breached most of the classified systems under test in the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command’s simulated environment. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner said the operation took hours, not weeks.
Security Affairs noted that the specific technical details of the NSA red‑team test remain classified; the public can only confirm that it is a government assessment relayed by a senator and cannot independently verify which systems were compromised or whether the test environment matched a real production network. After this claim surfaced, the Fable 5 ban was no longer framed as a simple jailbreak vulnerability but was placed within a discussion of nation‑state cyber‑attack capabilities.
Reuters reported on the 22nd that the Five Eyes alliance—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand—issued a joint warning that frontier AI will dramatically increase the speed, scale and complexity of cyber attacks within months rather than years, potentially causing severe damage to government and commercial systems.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Total investment: $4.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.8k on “No” for “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. customers by July 1?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
tourists invested $4.8k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Trump, with a sector net profit of $118k. Across 210 settled trades in that sector, their win rate is 146/210 (70%), including 34 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 22nd that Mythos, during an authorized internal red‑team assessment and in conjunction with other defense and testing tools, breached most of the classified systems under test in the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command’s simulated environment. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner said the operation took hours, not weeks.
Security Affairs noted that the specific technical details of the NSA red‑team test remain classified; the public can only confirm that it is a government assessment relayed by a senator and cannot independently verify which systems were compromised or whether the test environment matched a real production network. After this claim surfaced, the Fable 5 ban was no longer framed as a simple jailbreak vulnerability but was placed within a discussion of nation‑state cyber‑attack capabilities.
Reuters reported on the 22nd that the Five Eyes alliance—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand—issued a joint warning that frontier AI will dramatically increase the speed, scale and complexity of cyber attacks within months rather than years, potentially causing severe damage to government and commercial systems.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Total investment: $4.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $15.1k on “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 71.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
On the 22nd, Russian officials said that in the past 24 hours a total of 84 drones heading for Moscow were shot down, while the Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 301 Ukrainian drones in one night; four Moscow airports were temporarily halted. At the same time, Russian attacks killed at least six people in Ukraine, including a 13‑year‑old boy, and used “Iskander” ballistic missiles to strike the Odesa region; Russian drones also attacked a Black Sea merchant vessel.
Today, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv remains willing to negotiate directly with Russia, but “our patience is not unlimited”; if the UN Security Council continues to wait, Ukraine may revise its current ceasefire proposal along the actual front line. Melnyk emphasized that accepting a ceasefire along the current contact line is already a major concession by Ukraine. If Kyiv raises its demands due to a lack of international action, the already huge territorial differences between Russia and Ukraine will widen further.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Total investment: $15.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $15.1k on “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 71.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
0xd44e974a invested $15.1k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Ukraine, with a sector net profit of $125k. Across 287 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 210/287 (73%); among them, 118 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $3.1k.
On the 22nd, Russian officials said that in the past 24 hours a total of 84 drones heading for Moscow were shot down, while the Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 301 Ukrainian drones in one night; four Moscow airports were temporarily halted. At the same time, Russian attacks killed at least six people in Ukraine, including a 13‑year‑old boy, and used “Iskander” ballistic missiles to strike the Odesa region; Russian drones also attacked a Black Sea merchant vessel.
Today, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv remains willing to negotiate directly with Russia, but “our patience is not unlimited”; if the UN Security Council continues to wait, Ukraine may revise its current ceasefire proposal along the actual front line. Melnyk emphasized that accepting a ceasefire along the current contact line is already a major concession by Ukraine. If Kyiv raises its demands due to a lack of international action, the already huge territorial differences between Russia and Ukraine will widen further.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Total investment: $15.1k
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors bought “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money participants have put $7.5k on “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?” with “Yes”, an average entry probability of 38.5 %, and the current “Yes” probability at 68.5 %.
According to the latest market data, Nvidia’s market cap is about $5.09 trillion, Apple about $4.37 trillion, and Alphabet about $4.24 trillion. Apple has now overtaken Alphabet, temporarily ranking second globally, leading by roughly $137 billion, or about 3.2 % of Alphabet’s market cap.
On the 22nd, large‑cap U.S. tech stocks fell broadly, with Alphabet becoming the focal point of the sell‑off, its price dropping about 6 % at one point—the worst single‑day performance since May 2025. The market worries that while Google is pouring massive capital into AI, it is losing key research talent, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also being weighed down by doubts over AI investment returns; on a trading day when Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all fell sharply, Barron’s noted that Apple and Tesla were among the few large‑cap tech stocks that rose or held strength.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xf0ca28d5b0141f0a8e7b251dea80fd881cb166ed
0xcb9c7b4407f15b6c95bcc620e228614dee5c32e2
0x24124601c80a6a7b3f9dc0bd7f91aab9825ff534
Total investment: $7.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money participants have put $7.5k on “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?” with “Yes”, an average entry probability of 38.5 %, and the current “Yes” probability at 68.5 %.
0xf0ca28d5 invested $6.7k, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Finance, sector net profit $45.2k. In that sector they have 136 settled trades with a win rate of 52/136 (38 %), including 24 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a nearby cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $3.0k.
0xcb9c7b44 invested $500, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Big Tech, sector net profit $1.6k. In that sector they have 18 settled trades with a win rate of 11/18 (61 %), including 4 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a nearby cost range ($0.701‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.
0x24124601 invested $312, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Finance, sector net profit $1.3k. In that sector they have 16 settled trades with a win rate of 13/16 (81 %), including 5 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
According to the latest market data, Nvidia’s market cap is about $5.09 trillion, Apple about $4.37 trillion, and Alphabet about $4.24 trillion. Apple has now overtaken Alphabet, temporarily ranking second globally, leading by roughly $137 billion, or about 3.2 % of Alphabet’s market cap.
On the 22nd, large‑cap U.S. tech stocks fell broadly, with Alphabet becoming the focal point of the sell‑off, its price dropping about 6 % at one point—the worst single‑day performance since May 2025. The market worries that while Google is pouring massive capital into AI, it is losing key research talent, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also being weighed down by doubts over AI investment returns; on a trading day when Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all fell sharply, Barron’s noted that Apple and Tesla were among the few large‑cap tech stocks that rose or held strength.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xf0ca28d5b0141f0a8e7b251dea80fd881cb166ed
0xcb9c7b4407f15b6c95bcc620e228614dee5c32e2
0x24124601c80a6a7b3f9dc0bd7f91aab9825ff534
Total investment: $7.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
OmenX: Core Stars of Popular World Cup Teams Perform Strongly, Hedge to Earn Campaign in Full Swing
The second round of World Cup group matches continues, with several popular teams maintaining strong performances. Argentina defeated Austria 2-0, France defeated Iraq 3-0, Norway defeated Senegal 3-2, and Algeria defeated Jordan 2-1. Core stars of popular teams such as Messi, Mbappé, and Haaland all delivered standout performances, further clarifying the group‑stage qualification picture.
As the second‑round schedule progresses, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many groups will keep their suspense until the third round. However, upsets have been frequent in this World Cup, and high‑probability outcomes have repeatedly failed to materialize, prompting prediction‑market users to pay more attention to position protection and risk management.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX has launched the Hedge to Earn campaign, offering eligible Polymarket position holders up to 500 U in hedge reward credits. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify their positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue a corresponding hedge position. If no related events are matched yet, a recommended Trial Position Voucher will be provided to help users shift from “single‑sided prediction” to “position management,” adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing positions.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The second round of World Cup group matches continues, with several popular teams maintaining strong performances. Argentina defeated Austria 2-0, France defeated Iraq 3-0, Norway defeated Senegal 3-2, and Algeria defeated Jordan 2-1. Core stars of popular teams such as Messi, Mbappé, and Haaland all delivered standout performances, further clarifying the group‑stage qualification picture.
As the second‑round schedule progresses, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many groups will keep their suspense until the third round. However, upsets have been frequent in this World Cup, and high‑probability outcomes have repeatedly failed to materialize, prompting prediction‑market users to pay more attention to position protection and risk management.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX has launched the Hedge to Earn campaign, offering eligible Polymarket position holders up to 500 U in hedge reward credits. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify their positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue a corresponding hedge position. If no related events are matched yet, a recommended Trial Position Voucher will be provided to help users shift from “single‑sided prediction” to “position management,” adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing positions.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 60.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, unusual position‑splitting actions, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 60.5%.
Account 1’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $294k. It has a win rate of 1138/1745 (65%) across 1,745 settled trades in that sector, including 485 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 39.0 times the median historical amount invested at a similar cost range.
Account 2’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $25.8k. It has a win rate of 28/39 (72%) across 39 settled trades in that sector, including 8 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $149k. It has a win rate of 602/1367 (44%) across 1,367 settled trades in that sector, including 264 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.9 times the median historical amount invested at a similar cost range.
Account 4’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $92.3k. It has a win rate of 11/20 (55%) across 20 settled trades in that sector, including 12 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?” with a “Yes” position, averaging a purchase probability of 57.1%, and the current “Yes” probability is 52.5%.
On the 22nd, Streeting told the BBC that Burnham had not promised him any cabinet position and their conversation did not cover specific job arrangements; when directly asked about the chancellor role, he emphasized “no invitation to any position.”
On the same day, Reuters reported that Burnham’s camp is currently divided over the chancellor choice, with the main options narrowed to Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband. Streeting is backed by those who want to maintain a pro‑business approach, a stable pound and UK gilt market; Miliband receives support from the left advocating utility nationalisation, green infrastructure and a more active fiscal policy. Whoever is appointed to head the Treasury will directly determine whether Burnham’s government pursues a moderate market path or a more aggressive expansion of state investment.
Today, the Financial Times called Wes Streeting the frontrunner to become the UK’s next chancellor; after Stammer’s resignation he quickly withdrew from the party‑leader race and backed Andy Burnham, allowing Burnham to almost eliminate the most powerful centrist opponent. Streeting previously proposed “progressive capitalism” to drive re‑industrialisation, infrastructure building and private investment, and his pro‑business stance is seen as a balance to Burnham’s more left‑leaning public‑investment agenda. With UK gilt yields near multi‑year highs and markets worried about a new government expanding borrowing, appointing Streeting is viewed as Burnham’s direct way of signalling fiscal restraint to investors.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening the position.
Account:
0x48b7e95cef1270aa22760d069f8f0fe14be5f103
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?” with a “Yes” position, averaging a purchase probability of 57.1%, and the current “Yes” probability is 52.5%.
0x48b7e95c invested $1.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $4.6k. Across 79 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 43/79 (54%), including 28 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $308.
On the 22nd, Streeting told the BBC that Burnham had not promised him any cabinet position and their conversation did not cover specific job arrangements; when directly asked about the chancellor role, he emphasized “no invitation to any position.”
On the same day, Reuters reported that Burnham’s camp is currently divided over the chancellor choice, with the main options narrowed to Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband. Streeting is backed by those who want to maintain a pro‑business approach, a stable pound and UK gilt market; Miliband receives support from the left advocating utility nationalisation, green infrastructure and a more active fiscal policy. Whoever is appointed to head the Treasury will directly determine whether Burnham’s government pursues a moderate market path or a more aggressive expansion of state investment.
Today, the Financial Times called Wes Streeting the frontrunner to become the UK’s next chancellor; after Stammer’s resignation he quickly withdrew from the party‑leader race and backed Andy Burnham, allowing Burnham to almost eliminate the most powerful centrist opponent. Streeting previously proposed “progressive capitalism” to drive re‑industrialisation, infrastructure building and private investment, and his pro‑business stance is seen as a balance to Burnham’s more left‑leaning public‑investment agenda. With UK gilt yields near multi‑year highs and markets worried about a new government expanding borrowing, appointing Streeting is viewed as Burnham’s direct way of signalling fiscal restraint to investors.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening the position.
Account:
0x48b7e95cef1270aa22760d069f8f0fe14be5f103
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money participant placed $2.3k on “Yes” for “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 35.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 36.0%.
On the 20th, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the probability of a final Tesla‑SpaceX merger has risen above 80% and called it a “holy‑grail” deal for Musk’s AI ecosystem integration. Factors supporting this view include Tesla already holding SpaceX equity, joint chip‑manufacturing and AI projects, and SpaceX finally having publicly traded shares after its IPO that could be used for a stock‑swap transaction.
On the 21st, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on IPO day that the merger “could actually make Elon’s life a bit easier,” and she explicitly said Tesla and SpaceX will “undoubtedly have synergies” in the future. She noted the two companies are moving toward converging technology goals, but added she is currently focused on SpaceX operations and has not announced a near‑term transaction timeline.
In its latest report on the 22nd, Jefferies no longer treats the Tesla‑SpaceX merger as mere rumor but analyzes its potential impact on Tesla’s share price. The firm warned that, if the merger occurs, Tesla stock could become a proxy for investors to indirectly track SpaceX performance, pushing Tesla’s valuation further away from the actual earnings potential of its automotive, robotics, and autonomous‑driving businesses. Wall Street analysts have already incorporated the merger into formal valuation models.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific profit‑taking or stop‑loss point.
Account:
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money participant placed $2.3k on “Yes” for “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 35.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 36.0%.
Optimus- invested $2.3k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Tesla, sector net profit $10.1k. Across 63 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 54/63 (86%), including 19 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $886.
On the 20th, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the probability of a final Tesla‑SpaceX merger has risen above 80% and called it a “holy‑grail” deal for Musk’s AI ecosystem integration. Factors supporting this view include Tesla already holding SpaceX equity, joint chip‑manufacturing and AI projects, and SpaceX finally having publicly traded shares after its IPO that could be used for a stock‑swap transaction.
On the 21st, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on IPO day that the merger “could actually make Elon’s life a bit easier,” and she explicitly said Tesla and SpaceX will “undoubtedly have synergies” in the future. She noted the two companies are moving toward converging technology goals, but added she is currently focused on SpaceX operations and has not announced a near‑term transaction timeline.
In its latest report on the 22nd, Jefferies no longer treats the Tesla‑SpaceX merger as mere rumor but analyzes its potential impact on Tesla’s share price. The firm warned that, if the merger occurs, Tesla stock could become a proxy for investors to indirectly track SpaceX performance, pushing Tesla’s valuation further away from the actual earnings potential of its automotive, robotics, and autonomous‑driving businesses. Wall Street analysts have already incorporated the merger into formal valuation models.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific profit‑taking or stop‑loss point.
Account:
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
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1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 36.5%. The account’s only historical trade correctly predicted the US‑Iran cease‑fire timing, earning $200k (+1,115%).
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 36.5%. The account’s only historical trade correctly predicted the US‑Iran cease‑fire timing, earning $200k (+1,115%).
Account 1’s strongest related sector in this market is Middle East, with sector net profit of $201k. It has a 1/1 (100%) win rate across 1 settled trade in this sector, including 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $5.2k on “Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?” as “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 79.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 80.5%.
British Prime Minister Starmer announced his resignation on the 22nd and will remain in office until the Labour Party selects a new leader, ending a tenure of less than two years. Andy Burnham, who has just won the Macclesfield seat and returned to Parliament, is the leading successor candidate, while Wes Streeting, who had been expected to run, has withdrawn and publicly endorsed him. After Burnham leaves the Greater Manchester mayoralty, a by‑election will be held locally on July 30.
The Greater Manchester mayoral by‑election is expected to restore the supplementary voting system, allowing voters to mark a first and a second choice. Local political analysts say this system favours Labour and disadvantages the Reform UK party: supporters of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats may give their first vote to their own party but their second vote to Craig to block Reform UK.
The Guardian reported on the 22nd that after Andy Burnham steps down, Labour is likely to nominate the current Manchester City Council leader Bev Craig for Greater Manchester mayor. Craig has worked closely with Burnham on regional governance and is seen as a stable candidate who can continue existing policies and management structures; opposition votes are expected to flow to the Green Party, Reform UK, and Restore Britain. Multiple challengers running simultaneously reduces the chance of a single opposition party concentrating to defeat Labour.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd24b95551eb288ff82bb625dcd7f32f62abdef76
Total investment: $5.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $5.2k on “Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?” as “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 79.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 80.5%.
0xd24b9555 invested $5.2k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $17.2k. Across 61 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 28/61 (46%), including 26 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k.
British Prime Minister Starmer announced his resignation on the 22nd and will remain in office until the Labour Party selects a new leader, ending a tenure of less than two years. Andy Burnham, who has just won the Macclesfield seat and returned to Parliament, is the leading successor candidate, while Wes Streeting, who had been expected to run, has withdrawn and publicly endorsed him. After Burnham leaves the Greater Manchester mayoralty, a by‑election will be held locally on July 30.
The Greater Manchester mayoral by‑election is expected to restore the supplementary voting system, allowing voters to mark a first and a second choice. Local political analysts say this system favours Labour and disadvantages the Reform UK party: supporters of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats may give their first vote to their own party but their second vote to Craig to block Reform UK.
The Guardian reported on the 22nd that after Andy Burnham steps down, Labour is likely to nominate the current Manchester City Council leader Bev Craig for Greater Manchester mayor. Craig has worked closely with Burnham on regional governance and is seen as a stable candidate who can continue existing policies and management structures; opposition votes are expected to flow to the Green Party, Reform UK, and Restore Britain. Multiple challengers running simultaneously reduces the chance of a single opposition party concentrating to defeat Labour.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd24b95551eb288ff82bb625dcd7f32f62abdef76
Total investment: $5.2k
---------------------------------
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2 smart‑money investors bought “Will SpaceX’s IPO month‑end market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $3.4k in “Will SpaceX’s IPO month‑end market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T?”, with an average purchase probability of 40.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 44.5%.
SpaceX closed on the 22nd at $154.60. With roughly 13.08 billion shares outstanding, the market cap is about $2.02 trillion to $2.04 trillion, already near the lower bound. At the corresponding share price, $2 trillion equals about $152.91 and $2.5 trillion equals about $191.13; a drop of roughly 1.1% would push the cap below the range, while a rise of about 23.6% would be needed to break the upper bound.
Investopedia reported today that SpaceX’s price is about 4% below its IPO first‑day close and about 30% down from its post‑listing high, with the market cap falling from nearly $3 trillion to just above $2 trillion. Low float and speculative pricing amplified the early surge, but the bond issuance plan and upcoming lock‑up releases are now pressuring the valuation. Inclusion in indices could bring passive‑fund buying, yet because the main lock‑up expirations are spread over the coming months, the risk of a large immediate increase in share supply before June 30 is relatively limited.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific point after opening.
Accounts:
0xf797d4d1c038d1eb0593edae0e66bf8e4b2e0bf2
0xb0fcea24160139269e0af107811e33d99d6ece0b
Total investment: $3.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $3.4k in “Will SpaceX’s IPO month‑end market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T?”, with an average purchase probability of 40.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 44.5%.
DerDon invested $2.0k, with the market’s best‑correlated sector being Big Tech, which has a net profit of $14.0k. In that sector, they have a win‑rate of 43/69 (62%) across 69 settled trades, including 28 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median of their historical investment amount is $503.
0xb0fcea24 invested $1.3k. They have 78 settled trades with a total profit of $10.1k.
SpaceX closed on the 22nd at $154.60. With roughly 13.08 billion shares outstanding, the market cap is about $2.02 trillion to $2.04 trillion, already near the lower bound. At the corresponding share price, $2 trillion equals about $152.91 and $2.5 trillion equals about $191.13; a drop of roughly 1.1% would push the cap below the range, while a rise of about 23.6% would be needed to break the upper bound.
Investopedia reported today that SpaceX’s price is about 4% below its IPO first‑day close and about 30% down from its post‑listing high, with the market cap falling from nearly $3 trillion to just above $2 trillion. Low float and speculative pricing amplified the early surge, but the bond issuance plan and upcoming lock‑up releases are now pressuring the valuation. Inclusion in indices could bring passive‑fund buying, yet because the main lock‑up expirations are spread over the coming months, the risk of a large immediate increase in share supply before June 30 is relatively limited.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific point after opening.
Accounts:
0xf797d4d1c038d1eb0593edae0e66bf8e4b2e0bf2
0xb0fcea24160139269e0af107811e33d99d6ece0b
Total investment: $3.4k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Mojtaba Khamenei will appear publicly before July 31”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $20.1k on “Mojtaba Khamenei will appear publicly before July 31?” with the “No” outcome, averaging a purchase probability of 76.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 29.5%.
The Guardian reported on the 21st that Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly to date, nor released any audio of himself, and continues to intervene in U.S.–Iran negotiations through written statements, letters, and detailed questions relayed by officials. Recent controversy disclosed by Iran’s state TV also revolves around alleged secret letters he wrote to the president and the negotiation team, without any new footage. Even as the nation handles the nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz fees, and high‑level talks with the United States, the supreme leader still opts for written remote control, indicating that invisibility has become a fixed decision‑making pattern rather than a temporary absence.
In the Guardian’s latest analysis of Iran on the 22nd, it notes that the new leadership, including Mojtaba Khamenei, remains highly opaque, and outsiders cannot confirm how or to what extent the supreme leader directly controls the government. Iran is simultaneously facing high inflation, unemployment, post‑war reconstruction, and pressure from U.S. negotiations, yet officials have not provided a verifiable real‑time video to dispel health or power doubts. The three‑month period of ambiguous management shows that Tehran now prefers to endure external speculation rather than reveal its location, condition, or security measures.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may have taken profit or cut loss at a later point after opening the position.
Account:
0xae7fceb5828ad56356283188b505939d057f31c9
Total investment: $20.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $20.1k on “Mojtaba Khamenei will appear publicly before July 31?” with the “No” outcome, averaging a purchase probability of 76.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 29.5%.
0xae7fceb5 invested $20.1k, with the market’s best‑correlated sector being Geopolitics, which has a net profit of $4.4k. In that sector, the investor’s 36 settled trades have a win rate of 17/36 (47%), including 10 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $880, making this investment 22.8 times that median.
The Guardian reported on the 21st that Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly to date, nor released any audio of himself, and continues to intervene in U.S.–Iran negotiations through written statements, letters, and detailed questions relayed by officials. Recent controversy disclosed by Iran’s state TV also revolves around alleged secret letters he wrote to the president and the negotiation team, without any new footage. Even as the nation handles the nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz fees, and high‑level talks with the United States, the supreme leader still opts for written remote control, indicating that invisibility has become a fixed decision‑making pattern rather than a temporary absence.
In the Guardian’s latest analysis of Iran on the 22nd, it notes that the new leadership, including Mojtaba Khamenei, remains highly opaque, and outsiders cannot confirm how or to what extent the supreme leader directly controls the government. Iran is simultaneously facing high inflation, unemployment, post‑war reconstruction, and pressure from U.S. negotiations, yet officials have not provided a verifiable real‑time video to dispel health or power doubts. The three‑month period of ambiguous management shows that Tehran now prefers to endure external speculation rather than reveal its location, condition, or security measures.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may have taken profit or cut loss at a later point after opening the position.
Account:
0xae7fceb5828ad56356283188b505939d057f31c9
Total investment: $20.1k
---------------------------------
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1 new account bought “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $140.7k in “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 36.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 38.4%.
Vance said on the 14th that he will discuss with his wife Usha whether to run for president after the 2026 midterm elections, not ruling out a run and not postponing the decision to the distant future. He also noted that Trump frequently talks about the 2028 succession issue both publicly and privately, and believes that whatever decision he ultimately makes, Trump will give strong support.
Reuters updated on the 21st that Trump has appointed Vance to implement the interim Iran peace agreement and lead subsequent negotiations, the most significant international affairs role Vance has held since becoming vice president. This task could directly shape his political prospects as a White House successor: if the negotiations stabilize a cease‑fire, restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and lower energy prices, Vance will gain diplomatic and national‑security credentials that have been relatively lacking in his record. Trump’s choice to give Vance—not other potential candidates—this high‑profile assignment allows him to enter the 2028 competition as a key foreign‑policy decision‑maker in the current administration.
Account:
0xa8a9c7a2f1d8eca2c20b6dc58df52caa85cdbb81
Total investment: $140.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $140.7k in “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 36.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 38.4%.
Vance said on the 14th that he will discuss with his wife Usha whether to run for president after the 2026 midterm elections, not ruling out a run and not postponing the decision to the distant future. He also noted that Trump frequently talks about the 2028 succession issue both publicly and privately, and believes that whatever decision he ultimately makes, Trump will give strong support.
Reuters updated on the 21st that Trump has appointed Vance to implement the interim Iran peace agreement and lead subsequent negotiations, the most significant international affairs role Vance has held since becoming vice president. This task could directly shape his political prospects as a White House successor: if the negotiations stabilize a cease‑fire, restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and lower energy prices, Vance will gain diplomatic and national‑security credentials that have been relatively lacking in his record. Trump’s choice to give Vance—not other potential candidates—this high‑profile assignment allows him to enter the 2028 competition as a key foreign‑policy decision‑maker in the current administration.
Account:
0xa8a9c7a2f1d8eca2c20b6dc58df52caa85cdbb81
Total investment: $140.7k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the New Zealand National Party win the most seats in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.6k on “Will the New Zealand National Party win the most seats in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?” as “No”, with an average purchase probability of 58.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 28.0%.
New Zealand will hold a parliamentary election on November 7, and the incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party will seek to continue a centre‑right coalition with the Labour Party and New Zealand First. A 1News–Verian poll on the 23rd shows Labour at 32% support, National down to 29%, translating to 41 seats for Labour and 37 for National.
Based on current data, the left‑leaning bloc of Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party could secure 64 seats, leading the right‑leaning bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First by 4 seats. Because New Zealand uses a mixed‑member proportional system, a single party rarely governs alone; the final outcome depends not only on the ranking of Labour and National but also on whether smaller parties clear the threshold and on post‑election coalition talks.
Today, 1News political analysis noted that the National Party had hoped an internal confidence vote on Luxon in April would resolve the leadership dispute and boost support, but the latest poll shows support slipping further to 29%. National Party chair Sylvia Wood has admitted that trailing Labour is “not good enough”; the party received 38% of the party vote in the 2023 election, and returning to that level now looks difficult. The analysis also estimates that even if the current governing coalition barely retains power, the National Party could lose about 12 MPs, with more seats and bargaining power shifting to New Zealand First.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.6k on “Will the New Zealand National Party win the most seats in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?” as “No”, with an average purchase probability of 58.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 28.0%.
RememberAmalek invested $1.6k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $586k. In that sector they have 1190 settled trades with a win rate of 626/1190 (53%), including 257 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $467.
New Zealand will hold a parliamentary election on November 7, and the incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party will seek to continue a centre‑right coalition with the Labour Party and New Zealand First. A 1News–Verian poll on the 23rd shows Labour at 32% support, National down to 29%, translating to 41 seats for Labour and 37 for National.
Based on current data, the left‑leaning bloc of Labour, the Greens and the Māori Party could secure 64 seats, leading the right‑leaning bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First by 4 seats. Because New Zealand uses a mixed‑member proportional system, a single party rarely governs alone; the final outcome depends not only on the ranking of Labour and National but also on whether smaller parties clear the threshold and on post‑election coalition talks.
Today, 1News political analysis noted that the National Party had hoped an internal confidence vote on Luxon in April would resolve the leadership dispute and boost support, but the latest poll shows support slipping further to 29%. National Party chair Sylvia Wood has admitted that trailing Labour is “not good enough”; the party received 38% of the party vote in the 2023 election, and returning to that level now looks difficult. The analysis also estimates that even if the current governing coalition barely retains power, the National Party could lose about 12 MPs, with more seats and bargaining power shifting to New Zealand First.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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1 Smart Money Investor Bought “Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before December 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will GameStop Acquire eBay Before December 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Finance, with sector net profit of $151k. Across 105 settled trades in this sector, its win rate is 101/105 (96%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart money investor bought “Crude Oil (CL) Will Hit $70 (LOW) Before July”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “Crude Oil (CL) Will Hit $70 (LOW) Before July?” for “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 48.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 37%.
On the 23rd, the International Maritime Organization announced that it has secured the safety guarantees required to pass the Strait of Hormuz and has begun contacting stranded vessels, preparing to allow hundreds of ships and about 11,000 crew members to leave the Persian Gulf in phases. The operation will be coordinated by Iran, Oman, the United States, coastal states, and the shipping industry; vessels will be assigned specific transit dates and will use temporary north‑south routes to avoid the traditional lanes that still pose collision and mine risks.
On the same day, as U.S.–Iran tensions eased and Strait traffic gradually resumed, oil‑producing countries in the Middle East began increasing crude sales and loading demand, with producers such as Abu Dhabi National Oil Company launching a new round of export tenders. War‑risk insurance rates on Gulf routes fell from about 5% of vessel value to roughly 3%, allowing a large tanker to save tens of thousands of dollars in insurance per voyage.
More than 30 ships passed the Strait of Hormuz on the 22nd–23rd, marking the busiest day since the conflict erupted on February 28. The UK Office for Maritime Trade Operations has downgraded the local risk level from “Severe” to “Moderate”.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xca88d64f331060ea470e473b687b26337facefb2
Total investment: $2.4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “Crude Oil (CL) Will Hit $70 (LOW) Before July?” for “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 48.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 37%.
0xca88d64f invested $2.4k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Commodities, with sector net profit of $11.9k. Across 19 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 17/19 (89%), including 2 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
On the 23rd, the International Maritime Organization announced that it has secured the safety guarantees required to pass the Strait of Hormuz and has begun contacting stranded vessels, preparing to allow hundreds of ships and about 11,000 crew members to leave the Persian Gulf in phases. The operation will be coordinated by Iran, Oman, the United States, coastal states, and the shipping industry; vessels will be assigned specific transit dates and will use temporary north‑south routes to avoid the traditional lanes that still pose collision and mine risks.
On the same day, as U.S.–Iran tensions eased and Strait traffic gradually resumed, oil‑producing countries in the Middle East began increasing crude sales and loading demand, with producers such as Abu Dhabi National Oil Company launching a new round of export tenders. War‑risk insurance rates on Gulf routes fell from about 5% of vessel value to roughly 3%, allowing a large tanker to save tens of thousands of dollars in insurance per voyage.
More than 30 ships passed the Strait of Hormuz on the 22nd–23rd, marking the busiest day since the conflict erupted on February 28. The UK Office for Maritime Trade Operations has downgraded the local risk level from “Severe” to “Moderate”.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xca88d64f331060ea470e473b687b26337facefb2
Total investment: $2.4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN