【World Cup】Football sector 73% win-rate account buys “Netherlands vs Sweden: Will the Netherlands win on June 20, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, just now, 1 football‑sector account with a 73% win rate invested $25.5k on “Netherlands vs Sweden: Will the Netherlands win on June 20, 2026?”, choosing “Yes”. The probability at the time of investment was 57%, and the current “Yes” probability is 58%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, just now, 1 football‑sector account with a 73% win rate invested $25.5k on “Netherlands vs Sweden: Will the Netherlands win on June 20, 2026?”, choosing “Yes”. The probability at the time of investment was 57%, and the current “Yes” probability is 58%.
0xa6cd8300 has a net profit of $248k in the football sector, with a win rate of 19/26 (73.1%). Among them, there are 12 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.601‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $9.4k.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will the Fed keep the federal funds rate ceiling unchanged after the July 2026 meeting?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $36.9k on “Will the Fed keep the federal funds rate ceiling unchanged after the July 2026 meeting?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 74.8%, and the current “Yes” probability at 77.5%.
The Fed just voted 12‑0 at the June 17 meeting to keep rates unchanged. The official statement said U.S. economic activity is still expanding steadily, employment growth is roughly keeping pace with labor‑force growth, and the unemployment rate is relatively stable; however, inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to energy‑price shocks from Middle‑East conflicts. In other words, the Fed now has neither sufficient reason to cut rates nor a decision to raise them immediately.
The latest data also support a “wait‑and‑see” stance. U.S. May CPI rose to 4.2% year‑over‑year, up from 3.8% in April; energy prices jumped 23.5% year‑over‑year and gasoline rose 40.5%, driving the inflation rebound. Core CPI, however, was 2.9% year‑over‑year and 0.2% month‑over‑month, indicating price pressure is coming more from energy and supply shocks rather than a broad‑based surge.
The labor market also does not provide enough pressure for a rate cut. U.S. May non‑farm payrolls added 172 k jobs, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and it has stayed within a narrow 4.3%‑4.5% band since July 2025. For the Fed, as long as the labor market does not deteriorate quickly, the need to cut rates early in a high‑inflation environment remains low.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x4755188644460fc8140a18ccefc1e80b6a5e4158
Total investment: $36.9k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $36.9k on “Will the Fed keep the federal funds rate ceiling unchanged after the July 2026 meeting?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 74.8%, and the current “Yes” probability at 77.5%.
0x47551886 invested $36.9k, with the market’s top related sector being Fed, sector net profit $36.7k. In this sector the investor has 8 settled trades with a win rate of 7/8 (88%); there were 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
The Fed just voted 12‑0 at the June 17 meeting to keep rates unchanged. The official statement said U.S. economic activity is still expanding steadily, employment growth is roughly keeping pace with labor‑force growth, and the unemployment rate is relatively stable; however, inflation remains above the 2% target, partly due to energy‑price shocks from Middle‑East conflicts. In other words, the Fed now has neither sufficient reason to cut rates nor a decision to raise them immediately.
The latest data also support a “wait‑and‑see” stance. U.S. May CPI rose to 4.2% year‑over‑year, up from 3.8% in April; energy prices jumped 23.5% year‑over‑year and gasoline rose 40.5%, driving the inflation rebound. Core CPI, however, was 2.9% year‑over‑year and 0.2% month‑over‑month, indicating price pressure is coming more from energy and supply shocks rather than a broad‑based surge.
The labor market also does not provide enough pressure for a rate cut. U.S. May non‑farm payrolls added 172 k jobs, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and it has stayed within a narrow 4.3%‑4.5% band since July 2025. For the Fed, as long as the labor market does not deteriorate quickly, the need to cut rates early in a high‑inflation environment remains low.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x4755188644460fc8140a18ccefc1e80b6a5e4158
Total investment: $36.9k
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic return to normal levels before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $144.3k on “Will Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic return to normal levels before July?” with the “Yes” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 14.1%; the current “Yes” probability is 7.5%.
According to the latest publicly available data from PortWatch, actual vessel passages remain far below the market’s settlement threshold of 60.
U.S. Central Command said on June 20 that 55 commercial vessels had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz that day, transporting more than 17 million barrels of oil. However, because the market requires a 7‑day moving average, a single‑day count above 60 does not guarantee the figure will stay high over time. Moreover, the PortWatch page itself notes GPS interference, AIS spoofing, and vessels turning off signals in the area, so the data should be used cautiously.
Shipping companies have not yet fully returned to normal operations. Reuters reported on June 15 that Asian and European shipowners welcome a U.S.–Iran agreement but are generally waiting for more details, especially regarding mine‑clearing, security guarantees, and the durability of the pact. BIMCO still classifies transits through the Strait of Hormuz as high risk, and companies such as Mitsui OSK Lines say they will resume sailing only after safety is fully confirmed. Maersk’s public stance likewise states “a cease‑fire could create passage opportunities, but full maritime certainty has not yet been provided,” and they will continue to assess based on security conditions and regulator guidance.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a
Total investment: $144.3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $144.3k on “Will Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic return to normal levels before July?” with the “Yes” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 14.1%; the current “Yes” probability is 7.5%.
betwick invested $144k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Iran, sector net profit $239k. Across 96 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 61/96 (64%); 28 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $1.4k, and this stake is 100.4 times that median.
According to the latest publicly available data from PortWatch, actual vessel passages remain far below the market’s settlement threshold of 60.
U.S. Central Command said on June 20 that 55 commercial vessels had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz that day, transporting more than 17 million barrels of oil. However, because the market requires a 7‑day moving average, a single‑day count above 60 does not guarantee the figure will stay high over time. Moreover, the PortWatch page itself notes GPS interference, AIS spoofing, and vessels turning off signals in the area, so the data should be used cautiously.
Shipping companies have not yet fully returned to normal operations. Reuters reported on June 15 that Asian and European shipowners welcome a U.S.–Iran agreement but are generally waiting for more details, especially regarding mine‑clearing, security guarantees, and the durability of the pact. BIMCO still classifies transits through the Strait of Hormuz as high risk, and companies such as Mitsui OSK Lines say they will resume sailing only after safety is fully confirmed. Maersk’s public stance likewise states “a cease‑fire could create passage opportunities, but full maritime certainty has not yet been provided,” and they will continue to assess based on security conditions and regulator guidance.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a
Total investment: $144.3k
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1 new account bought “Will GPT‑5.6 still be unreleased by June 28 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.2k on “Yes” for “Will GPT‑5.6 still be unreleased by June 28 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 67.3%.
OpenAI’s latest ChatGPT update released on the 18th mainly covered World Cup information, pronunciation guidance, chat summarization, sharing features, connected‑app controls, and faster iOS image uploads, without announcing GPT‑5.6; the most recent explicit model‑level update in OpenAI’s release history remains the GPT‑5.5 Instant adjustment on May 28.
Previously, a researcher briefly spotted a GPT‑5.6 label in Codex backend mappings, but the related record later disappeared, and the original discoverer considered it more likely an accidental exposure. Backend routing, test code names, and model traces in closed environments can only confirm that OpenAI is testing subsequent models.
Account:
0xb9df9898b6ffd4ca8c32bcd55a94bfada19ce654
Total investment: $5.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.2k on “Yes” for “Will GPT‑5.6 still be unreleased by June 28 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 67.3%.
OpenAI’s latest ChatGPT update released on the 18th mainly covered World Cup information, pronunciation guidance, chat summarization, sharing features, connected‑app controls, and faster iOS image uploads, without announcing GPT‑5.6; the most recent explicit model‑level update in OpenAI’s release history remains the GPT‑5.5 Instant adjustment on May 28.
Previously, a researcher briefly spotted a GPT‑5.6 label in Codex backend mappings, but the related record later disappeared, and the original discoverer considered it more likely an accidental exposure. Backend routing, test code names, and model traces in closed environments can only confirm that OpenAI is testing subsequent models.
Account:
0xb9df9898b6ffd4ca8c32bcd55a94bfada19ce654
Total investment: $5.2k
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Darializa Avila Chevalier become the Democratic nominee for NY‑13 (June 23 2026 primary)?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.0k on “Will Darializa Avila Chevalier become the Democratic nominee for NY‑13 (June 23 2026 primary)?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 50.5%, and the current “Yes” probability at 40.5%.
The Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district will be held on June 23, with the winner representing the Democratic Party in the November 3 federal House election. Incumbent Representative Adriano Espaillat faces progressive challenger Dariolis Avila Chevalier, a contest seen as a direct clash between the party establishment and a younger progressive wing. The district covers Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood, and parts of the West Bronx; registered Democratic voters in New York can vote in the primary.
On the 17th, an analysis by Gothamist of New York City Board of Elections data showed that in the first four days after early voting began, only about 62,000 voters in the city had cast ballots, indicating low early participation. This may mean that the new voters mobilized by Mamdani last year are not automatically turning out again for the congressional candidates he supports.
On the 18th, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders held a large turnout rally in Brooklyn for progressive candidates, including Chevalier, drawing thousands of attendees. Mamdani framed these candidates as reshaping the Democratic Party’s unified slate, giving Chevalier a volunteer network, youth voter attention, and pre‑election mobilization resources that incumbents typically lack.
On the 20th, the two candidates publicly displayed starkly different campaign alliances at a Harlem event hosted by Al Sharpton: Chevalier emphasized shared housing, immigration, and economic interests of Black and Dominican voters; Espaillat described some of her supporters as a “gentrifying group” driving up neighborhood rents.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xd8d5289c35124b5353f5a10a28b8cc29aec38935
Total investment: $1.0k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.0k on “Will Darializa Avila Chevalier become the Democratic nominee for NY‑13 (June 23 2026 primary)?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 50.5%, and the current “Yes” probability at 40.5%.
D8D528 invested $1.0k, with the market’s best‑related sector being House primary, sector net profit $6.0k. In that sector, they have 10 settled trades with a win rate of 8/10 (80%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.451‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $266.
The Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district will be held on June 23, with the winner representing the Democratic Party in the November 3 federal House election. Incumbent Representative Adriano Espaillat faces progressive challenger Dariolis Avila Chevalier, a contest seen as a direct clash between the party establishment and a younger progressive wing. The district covers Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood, and parts of the West Bronx; registered Democratic voters in New York can vote in the primary.
On the 17th, an analysis by Gothamist of New York City Board of Elections data showed that in the first four days after early voting began, only about 62,000 voters in the city had cast ballots, indicating low early participation. This may mean that the new voters mobilized by Mamdani last year are not automatically turning out again for the congressional candidates he supports.
On the 18th, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders held a large turnout rally in Brooklyn for progressive candidates, including Chevalier, drawing thousands of attendees. Mamdani framed these candidates as reshaping the Democratic Party’s unified slate, giving Chevalier a volunteer network, youth voter attention, and pre‑election mobilization resources that incumbents typically lack.
On the 20th, the two candidates publicly displayed starkly different campaign alliances at a Harlem event hosted by Al Sharpton: Chevalier emphasized shared housing, immigration, and economic interests of Black and Dominican voters; Espaillat described some of her supporters as a “gentrifying group” driving up neighborhood rents.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xd8d5289c35124b5353f5a10a28b8cc29aec38935
Total investment: $1.0k
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4 Smart Money Investors Bought “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina Win on June 22, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors bought “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22, 2026?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 64.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors bought “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22, 2026?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 64.5%.
Account 1’s top related sector for this market is Soccer, with a sector net profit of $4.5k. It has a win rate of 20/35 (57%) across 35 settled trades in that sector, including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s top related sector for this market is FIFA World Cup, with a sector net profit of $13.4k. It has a win rate of 5/11 (45%) across 11 settled trades in that sector, including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s top related sector for this market is Soccer, with a sector net profit of $10.0k. It has a win rate of 5/8 (62%) across 8 settled trades in that sector, including 5 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 4’s top related sector for this market is Soccer, with a sector net profit of $4.4k. It has a win rate of 23/39 (59%) across 39 settled trades in that sector, including 22 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Russia occupy the entire Kostyantynivka area by December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.2k on “Will Russia occupy the entire Kostyantynivka area by December 31?” with the “No” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 52.0%. The current probability of “Yes” is 47.0%.
On the 12th, ISW assessed that Russian forces are likely to continue making localized tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during the summer of 2026, but it remains “unlikely to achieve a rapid, campaign‑level breakthrough.” After capturing Toretsk, Russian forces have been conducting operations toward Kostyantynivka for about ten months yet have not completed the encirclement and clearing of the city; this time consumption indicates that even if the urban area gradually falls, eliminating all Ukrainian positions and confirming the entire administrative zone as red‑lined could still take months.
On the 18th, DeepState analysis suggested that Russian forces are infiltrating the Kostiantynivka urban area from multiple directions—including Novodmytrivka, Berestok, and Illinivka—and targeting supply lines, using tactics similar to the earlier siege of Pokrovsk: accepting higher infantry losses, gradually expanding the “gray zone,” and then forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Russian forces do not need to launch an immediate large‑scale mechanized breakthrough and may achieve encirclement through sustained infiltration over the next six months; however, this tactic is inherently slow, and even after the city falls, the surrounding administrative borders may continue to be contested.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xc984e539bdd2699e2a0a28bcd995aaf439c337ca
Total investment: $1.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.2k on “Will Russia occupy the entire Kostyantynivka area by December 31?” with the “No” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 52.0%. The current probability of “Yes” is 47.0%.
0xc984e539 invested $1.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $16.9k. Across 51 settled trades in this sector, the win‑rate is 40/51 (78%), including 14 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451‑$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k.
On the 12th, ISW assessed that Russian forces are likely to continue making localized tactical gains in Kostyantynivka during the summer of 2026, but it remains “unlikely to achieve a rapid, campaign‑level breakthrough.” After capturing Toretsk, Russian forces have been conducting operations toward Kostyantynivka for about ten months yet have not completed the encirclement and clearing of the city; this time consumption indicates that even if the urban area gradually falls, eliminating all Ukrainian positions and confirming the entire administrative zone as red‑lined could still take months.
On the 18th, DeepState analysis suggested that Russian forces are infiltrating the Kostiantynivka urban area from multiple directions—including Novodmytrivka, Berestok, and Illinivka—and targeting supply lines, using tactics similar to the earlier siege of Pokrovsk: accepting higher infantry losses, gradually expanding the “gray zone,” and then forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Russian forces do not need to launch an immediate large‑scale mechanized breakthrough and may achieve encirclement through sustained infiltration over the next six months; however, this tactic is inherently slow, and even after the city falls, the surrounding administrative borders may continue to be contested.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xc984e539bdd2699e2a0a28bcd995aaf439c337ca
Total investment: $1.2k
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World Cup group stage second round is halfway through, OmenX officially launches Hedge to Earn airdrop hedging position activity
The World Cup group stage second round schedule is already halfway through, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many teams still need to decide their fate in the third round. In today’s matches, Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4‑0, Belgium drew 0‑0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2‑2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1‑3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, high‑probability pre‑match outcomes that fail to materialize continue to occur, further amplifying the unilateral position risk for prediction‑market users.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX today officially launches the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop activity, currently offering hedging positions to all Polymarket position holders. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify eligible positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue hedging positions in the corresponding direction; if no related events are matched yet, it will provide recommended position airdrops to help users experience hedging and position management.
OmenX says Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction‑market users move from “unilateral prediction” to a “position‑management” stage. For high‑volatility events such as the World Cup, users can receive up to 500 U in hedging reward credit through OmenX, adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing Polymarket positions. The activity is currently in full swing.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
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The World Cup group stage second round schedule is already halfway through, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many teams still need to decide their fate in the third round. In today’s matches, Spain beat Saudi Arabia 4‑0, Belgium drew 0‑0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2‑2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1‑3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, high‑probability pre‑match outcomes that fail to materialize continue to occur, further amplifying the unilateral position risk for prediction‑market users.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX today officially launches the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop activity, currently offering hedging positions to all Polymarket position holders. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify eligible positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue hedging positions in the corresponding direction; if no related events are matched yet, it will provide recommended position airdrops to help users experience hedging and position management.
OmenX says Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction‑market users move from “unilateral prediction” to a “position‑management” stage. For high‑volatility events such as the World Cup, users can receive up to 500 U in hedging reward credit through OmenX, adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing Polymarket positions. The activity is currently in full swing.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $2.1k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 30.5%.
Reuters reported on the 19th that the office of European Council President Antonio Costa has recently made preliminary diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin, and the Austrian prime minister also urges Europe to use the current momentum to re‑engage in negotiations. Russia says it is willing to dialogue with Europe but demands that Europe abandon pressure or ultimatums based on “Russia’s weakness.”
The Financial Times analyzed on the 21st that there is indeed an opportunity to freeze the war, but this window may close because Putin still believes Russia can achieve more by continuing the conflict. The FT notes the implicit risk that battlefield pressure and the Russian leadership’s assessment of objectives could still outweigh diplomatic incentives.
To date, Russia continues to use ballistic missiles against Ukraine, while Ukraine has expanded long‑range strikes on Moscow, Crimea, and Russian energy facilities. Both sides are still seeking more favorable military and economic leverage. Changes on the battlefield and pressure on Russian energy may drive diplomacy in the coming months, but territorial issues, security guarantees, and oversight mechanisms will still require complex negotiations.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $2.1k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before October 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8% and a current “Yes” probability of 30.5%.
GollumGekko invested $2.1k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Politics, sector net profit $152k. In that sector they have 1,926 settled trades with a win rate of 1,371/1,926 (71%), including 186 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $115, and this investment is 18.5 times that median.
Reuters reported on the 19th that the office of European Council President Antonio Costa has recently made preliminary diplomatic contacts with the Kremlin, and the Austrian prime minister also urges Europe to use the current momentum to re‑engage in negotiations. Russia says it is willing to dialogue with Europe but demands that Europe abandon pressure or ultimatums based on “Russia’s weakness.”
The Financial Times analyzed on the 21st that there is indeed an opportunity to freeze the war, but this window may close because Putin still believes Russia can achieve more by continuing the conflict. The FT notes the implicit risk that battlefield pressure and the Russian leadership’s assessment of objectives could still outweigh diplomatic incentives.
To date, Russia continues to use ballistic missiles against Ukraine, while Ukraine has expanded long‑range strikes on Moscow, Crimea, and Russian energy facilities. Both sides are still seeking more favorable military and economic leverage. Changes on the battlefield and pressure on Russian energy may drive diplomacy in the coming months, but territorial issues, security guarantees, and oversight mechanisms will still require complex negotiations.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $2.1k
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4 Smart Money Investors Bought “Strait of Hormuz Ship Traffic Returns to Normal Before July 15”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 27.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 27.5%.
Account 1’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $152k. It has a win rate of 1371/1926 (71%) across 1,926 settled trades in that sector, including 186 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This position is 34.3 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $312k. It has a win rate of 1007/1464 (69%) across 1,464 settled trades in that sector, including 330 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This position is 76.7 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 3’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $280k. It has a win rate of 499/829 (60%) across 829 settled trades in that sector, including 229 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 4’s best‑correlated sector for this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $5.5k. It has a win rate of 2/2 (100%) across 2 settled trades in that sector, with no trades meeting the < $0.8 purchase / > $0.95 sale criteria.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.2k on “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 61.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.0%.
On the 18th, after the Fed signaled a hawkish stance and the dollar rose to a one‑year high, spot silver fell 3% in a day to $65.96; 9 of 19 policymakers expect a rate hike this year, and market pricing for a December hike briefly rose to 85%.
Today, the United States and Iran concluded the first round of high‑level talks in Switzerland, with Iran saying the talks made good progress, while Qatar and Pakistan announced a joint roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days. After the news, Brent crude fell more than 1%, spot silver rose 1.8% to $66.10 per ounce, and gold also rebounded from a weekly low.
Reuters technical analysis noted that during the sharp decline in March, silver touched a low of $60.94 before gradually stabilizing and breaking through two descending trendlines. Thus, $60.94 forms a key low in this year’s corrective move.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd6a39cef30c927c4d57b5cc519f3a2d0332a9738
Total investment: $3.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.2k on “Will silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 before July?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 61.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.0%.
Bambi2Hill invested $3.2k, and the market’s top related sector is Finance, with a sector net profit of $5.1k. Across 15 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 12/15 (80%), including 8 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $468.
On the 18th, after the Fed signaled a hawkish stance and the dollar rose to a one‑year high, spot silver fell 3% in a day to $65.96; 9 of 19 policymakers expect a rate hike this year, and market pricing for a December hike briefly rose to 85%.
Today, the United States and Iran concluded the first round of high‑level talks in Switzerland, with Iran saying the talks made good progress, while Qatar and Pakistan announced a joint roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days. After the news, Brent crude fell more than 1%, spot silver rose 1.8% to $66.10 per ounce, and gold also rebounded from a weekly low.
Reuters technical analysis noted that during the sharp decline in March, silver touched a low of $60.94 before gradually stabilizing and breaking through two descending trendlines. Thus, $60.94 forms a key low in this year’s corrective move.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd6a39cef30c927c4d57b5cc519f3a2d0332a9738
Total investment: $3.2k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor bought “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “No” for “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 32.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 66.5%.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs; they may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “No” for “Argentina vs Austria: Will Argentina win on June 22 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 32.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 66.5%.
Gucky-45 invested $1.7k, with the market’s top related sector being soccer, sector net profit $797k. In this sector, they have 253 settled trades with a win rate of 48/253 (19%), including 33 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $589.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs; they may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe613b515bd46b1585a8b137a4d291d9b80bd540e
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
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3 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will the US Launch a Military Invasion of Iran Before 2027?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will the US launch a military invasion of Iran before 2027?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will the US launch a military invasion of Iran before 2027?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $480k. It has a win rate of 222/388 (57%) across 388 settled trades in that sector, including 103 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.8 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $35.7k. It has a win rate of 160/248 (65%) across 248 settled trades in that sector, including 37 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 75.3 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Trump, with sector net profit of $51.7k. It has a win rate of 153/289 (53%) across 289 settled trades in that sector, including 64 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 279.4 times the median historical investment amount for a similar cost‑price range.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. users by July 1?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.8k on “No” for “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. customers by July 1?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 22nd that Mythos, during an authorized internal red‑team assessment and in conjunction with other defense and testing tools, breached most of the classified systems under test in the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command’s simulated environment. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner said the operation took hours, not weeks.
Security Affairs noted that the specific technical details of the NSA red‑team test remain classified; the public can only confirm that it is a government assessment relayed by a senator and cannot independently verify which systems were compromised or whether the test environment matched a real production network. After this claim surfaced, the Fable 5 ban was no longer framed as a simple jailbreak vulnerability but was placed within a discussion of nation‑state cyber‑attack capabilities.
Reuters reported on the 22nd that the Five Eyes alliance—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand—issued a joint warning that frontier AI will dramatically increase the speed, scale and complexity of cyber attacks within months rather than years, potentially causing severe damage to government and commercial systems.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Total investment: $4.8k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.8k on “No” for “Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for U.S. customers by July 1?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
tourists invested $4.8k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Trump, with a sector net profit of $118k. Across 210 settled trades in that sector, their win rate is 146/210 (70%), including 34 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 22nd that Mythos, during an authorized internal red‑team assessment and in conjunction with other defense and testing tools, breached most of the classified systems under test in the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command’s simulated environment. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Mark Warner said the operation took hours, not weeks.
Security Affairs noted that the specific technical details of the NSA red‑team test remain classified; the public can only confirm that it is a government assessment relayed by a senator and cannot independently verify which systems were compromised or whether the test environment matched a real production network. After this claim surfaced, the Fable 5 ban was no longer framed as a simple jailbreak vulnerability but was placed within a discussion of nation‑state cyber‑attack capabilities.
Reuters reported on the 22nd that the Five Eyes alliance—comprising the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand—issued a joint warning that frontier AI will dramatically increase the speed, scale and complexity of cyber attacks within months rather than years, potentially causing severe damage to government and commercial systems.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
Total investment: $4.8k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $15.1k on “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 71.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
On the 22nd, Russian officials said that in the past 24 hours a total of 84 drones heading for Moscow were shot down, while the Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 301 Ukrainian drones in one night; four Moscow airports were temporarily halted. At the same time, Russian attacks killed at least six people in Ukraine, including a 13‑year‑old boy, and used “Iskander” ballistic missiles to strike the Odesa region; Russian drones also attacked a Black Sea merchant vessel.
Today, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv remains willing to negotiate directly with Russia, but “our patience is not unlimited”; if the UN Security Council continues to wait, Ukraine may revise its current ceasefire proposal along the actual front line. Melnyk emphasized that accepting a ceasefire along the current contact line is already a major concession by Ukraine. If Kyiv raises its demands due to a lack of international action, the already huge territorial differences between Russia and Ukraine will widen further.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Total investment: $15.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $15.1k on “Russia and Ukraine will achieve a ceasefire by December 31 2026?” for “No”, with an average purchase probability of 71.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
0xd44e974a invested $15.1k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Ukraine, with a sector net profit of $125k. Across 287 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 210/287 (73%); among them, 118 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $3.1k.
On the 22nd, Russian officials said that in the past 24 hours a total of 84 drones heading for Moscow were shot down, while the Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 301 Ukrainian drones in one night; four Moscow airports were temporarily halted. At the same time, Russian attacks killed at least six people in Ukraine, including a 13‑year‑old boy, and used “Iskander” ballistic missiles to strike the Odesa region; Russian drones also attacked a Black Sea merchant vessel.
Today, Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv remains willing to negotiate directly with Russia, but “our patience is not unlimited”; if the UN Security Council continues to wait, Ukraine may revise its current ceasefire proposal along the actual front line. Melnyk emphasized that accepting a ceasefire along the current contact line is already a major concession by Ukraine. If Kyiv raises its demands due to a lack of international action, the already huge territorial differences between Russia and Ukraine will widen further.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Total investment: $15.1k
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors bought “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money participants have put $7.5k on “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?” with “Yes”, an average entry probability of 38.5 %, and the current “Yes” probability at 68.5 %.
According to the latest market data, Nvidia’s market cap is about $5.09 trillion, Apple about $4.37 trillion, and Alphabet about $4.24 trillion. Apple has now overtaken Alphabet, temporarily ranking second globally, leading by roughly $137 billion, or about 3.2 % of Alphabet’s market cap.
On the 22nd, large‑cap U.S. tech stocks fell broadly, with Alphabet becoming the focal point of the sell‑off, its price dropping about 6 % at one point—the worst single‑day performance since May 2025. The market worries that while Google is pouring massive capital into AI, it is losing key research talent, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also being weighed down by doubts over AI investment returns; on a trading day when Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all fell sharply, Barron’s noted that Apple and Tesla were among the few large‑cap tech stocks that rose or held strength.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xf0ca28d5b0141f0a8e7b251dea80fd881cb166ed
0xcb9c7b4407f15b6c95bcc620e228614dee5c32e2
0x24124601c80a6a7b3f9dc0bd7f91aab9825ff534
Total investment: $7.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money participants have put $7.5k on “Will Apple become the world’s second‑largest company by market cap on June 30 2026?” with “Yes”, an average entry probability of 38.5 %, and the current “Yes” probability at 68.5 %.
0xf0ca28d5 invested $6.7k, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Finance, sector net profit $45.2k. In that sector they have 136 settled trades with a win rate of 52/136 (38 %), including 24 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a nearby cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $3.0k.
0xcb9c7b44 invested $500, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Big Tech, sector net profit $1.6k. In that sector they have 18 settled trades with a win rate of 11/18 (61 %), including 4 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a nearby cost range ($0.701‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.
0x24124601 invested $312, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Finance, sector net profit $1.3k. In that sector they have 16 settled trades with a win rate of 13/16 (81 %), including 5 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
According to the latest market data, Nvidia’s market cap is about $5.09 trillion, Apple about $4.37 trillion, and Alphabet about $4.24 trillion. Apple has now overtaken Alphabet, temporarily ranking second globally, leading by roughly $137 billion, or about 3.2 % of Alphabet’s market cap.
On the 22nd, large‑cap U.S. tech stocks fell broadly, with Alphabet becoming the focal point of the sell‑off, its price dropping about 6 % at one point—the worst single‑day performance since May 2025. The market worries that while Google is pouring massive capital into AI, it is losing key research talent, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also being weighed down by doubts over AI investment returns; on a trading day when Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all fell sharply, Barron’s noted that Apple and Tesla were among the few large‑cap tech stocks that rose or held strength.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xf0ca28d5b0141f0a8e7b251dea80fd881cb166ed
0xcb9c7b4407f15b6c95bcc620e228614dee5c32e2
0x24124601c80a6a7b3f9dc0bd7f91aab9825ff534
Total investment: $7.5k
---------------------------------
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OmenX: Core Stars of Popular World Cup Teams Perform Strongly, Hedge to Earn Campaign in Full Swing
The second round of World Cup group matches continues, with several popular teams maintaining strong performances. Argentina defeated Austria 2-0, France defeated Iraq 3-0, Norway defeated Senegal 3-2, and Algeria defeated Jordan 2-1. Core stars of popular teams such as Messi, Mbappé, and Haaland all delivered standout performances, further clarifying the group‑stage qualification picture.
As the second‑round schedule progresses, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many groups will keep their suspense until the third round. However, upsets have been frequent in this World Cup, and high‑probability outcomes have repeatedly failed to materialize, prompting prediction‑market users to pay more attention to position protection and risk management.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX has launched the Hedge to Earn campaign, offering eligible Polymarket position holders up to 500 U in hedge reward credits. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify their positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue a corresponding hedge position. If no related events are matched yet, a recommended Trial Position Voucher will be provided to help users shift from “single‑sided prediction” to “position management,” adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing positions.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
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The second round of World Cup group matches continues, with several popular teams maintaining strong performances. Argentina defeated Austria 2-0, France defeated Iraq 3-0, Norway defeated Senegal 3-2, and Algeria defeated Jordan 2-1. Core stars of popular teams such as Messi, Mbappé, and Haaland all delivered standout performances, further clarifying the group‑stage qualification picture.
As the second‑round schedule progresses, some teams have already secured or are close to securing qualification, while many groups will keep their suspense until the third round. However, upsets have been frequent in this World Cup, and high‑probability outcomes have repeatedly failed to materialize, prompting prediction‑market users to pay more attention to position protection and risk management.
Base’s native leveraged prediction market OmenX has launched the Hedge to Earn campaign, offering eligible Polymarket position holders up to 500 U in hedge reward credits. After users connect their Polymarket wallet, OmenX will identify their positions; if the platform has related events, it will issue a corresponding hedge position. If no related events are matched yet, a recommended Trial Position Voucher will be provided to help users shift from “single‑sided prediction” to “position management,” adding an extra layer of risk buffer to existing positions.
https://www.omenx.com/en/hedge
---------------------------------
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4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 60.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, unusual position‑splitting actions, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart‑money investors bought “Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 60.5%.
Account 1’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $294k. It has a win rate of 1138/1745 (65%) across 1,745 settled trades in that sector, including 485 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 39.0 times the median historical amount invested at a similar cost range.
Account 2’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $25.8k. It has a win rate of 28/39 (72%) across 39 settled trades in that sector, including 8 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $149k. It has a win rate of 602/1367 (44%) across 1,367 settled trades in that sector, including 264 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.9 times the median historical amount invested at a similar cost range.
Account 4’s top related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $92.3k. It has a win rate of 11/20 (55%) across 20 settled trades in that sector, including 12 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, unusual position‑splitting actions, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?” with a “Yes” position, averaging a purchase probability of 57.1%, and the current “Yes” probability is 52.5%.
On the 22nd, Streeting told the BBC that Burnham had not promised him any cabinet position and their conversation did not cover specific job arrangements; when directly asked about the chancellor role, he emphasized “no invitation to any position.”
On the same day, Reuters reported that Burnham’s camp is currently divided over the chancellor choice, with the main options narrowed to Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband. Streeting is backed by those who want to maintain a pro‑business approach, a stable pound and UK gilt market; Miliband receives support from the left advocating utility nationalisation, green infrastructure and a more active fiscal policy. Whoever is appointed to head the Treasury will directly determine whether Burnham’s government pursues a moderate market path or a more aggressive expansion of state investment.
Today, the Financial Times called Wes Streeting the frontrunner to become the UK’s next chancellor; after Stammer’s resignation he quickly withdrew from the party‑leader race and backed Andy Burnham, allowing Burnham to almost eliminate the most powerful centrist opponent. Streeting previously proposed “progressive capitalism” to drive re‑industrialisation, infrastructure building and private investment, and his pro‑business stance is seen as a balance to Burnham’s more left‑leaning public‑investment agenda. With UK gilt yields near multi‑year highs and markets worried about a new government expanding borrowing, appointing Streeting is viewed as Burnham’s direct way of signalling fiscal restraint to investors.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening the position.
Account:
0x48b7e95cef1270aa22760d069f8f0fe14be5f103
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “Will Wes Streeting be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?” with a “Yes” position, averaging a purchase probability of 57.1%, and the current “Yes” probability is 52.5%.
0x48b7e95c invested $1.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $4.6k. Across 79 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 43/79 (54%), including 28 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $308.
On the 22nd, Streeting told the BBC that Burnham had not promised him any cabinet position and their conversation did not cover specific job arrangements; when directly asked about the chancellor role, he emphasized “no invitation to any position.”
On the same day, Reuters reported that Burnham’s camp is currently divided over the chancellor choice, with the main options narrowed to Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband. Streeting is backed by those who want to maintain a pro‑business approach, a stable pound and UK gilt market; Miliband receives support from the left advocating utility nationalisation, green infrastructure and a more active fiscal policy. Whoever is appointed to head the Treasury will directly determine whether Burnham’s government pursues a moderate market path or a more aggressive expansion of state investment.
Today, the Financial Times called Wes Streeting the frontrunner to become the UK’s next chancellor; after Stammer’s resignation he quickly withdrew from the party‑leader race and backed Andy Burnham, allowing Burnham to almost eliminate the most powerful centrist opponent. Streeting previously proposed “progressive capitalism” to drive re‑industrialisation, infrastructure building and private investment, and his pro‑business stance is seen as a balance to Burnham’s more left‑leaning public‑investment agenda. With UK gilt yields near multi‑year highs and markets worried about a new government expanding borrowing, appointing Streeting is viewed as Burnham’s direct way of signalling fiscal restraint to investors.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening the position.
Account:
0x48b7e95cef1270aa22760d069f8f0fe14be5f103
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money participant placed $2.3k on “Yes” for “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 35.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 36.0%.
On the 20th, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the probability of a final Tesla‑SpaceX merger has risen above 80% and called it a “holy‑grail” deal for Musk’s AI ecosystem integration. Factors supporting this view include Tesla already holding SpaceX equity, joint chip‑manufacturing and AI projects, and SpaceX finally having publicly traded shares after its IPO that could be used for a stock‑swap transaction.
On the 21st, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on IPO day that the merger “could actually make Elon’s life a bit easier,” and she explicitly said Tesla and SpaceX will “undoubtedly have synergies” in the future. She noted the two companies are moving toward converging technology goals, but added she is currently focused on SpaceX operations and has not announced a near‑term transaction timeline.
In its latest report on the 22nd, Jefferies no longer treats the Tesla‑SpaceX merger as mere rumor but analyzes its potential impact on Tesla’s share price. The firm warned that, if the merger occurs, Tesla stock could become a proxy for investors to indirectly track SpaceX performance, pushing Tesla’s valuation further away from the actual earnings potential of its automotive, robotics, and autonomous‑driving businesses. Wall Street analysts have already incorporated the merger into formal valuation models.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific profit‑taking or stop‑loss point.
Account:
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money participant placed $2.3k on “Yes” for “Will the Tesla‑SpaceX merger be officially announced by December 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 35.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 36.0%.
Optimus- invested $2.3k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Tesla, sector net profit $10.1k. Across 63 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 54/63 (86%), including 19 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $886.
On the 20th, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the probability of a final Tesla‑SpaceX merger has risen above 80% and called it a “holy‑grail” deal for Musk’s AI ecosystem integration. Factors supporting this view include Tesla already holding SpaceX equity, joint chip‑manufacturing and AI projects, and SpaceX finally having publicly traded shares after its IPO that could be used for a stock‑swap transaction.
On the 21st, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC on IPO day that the merger “could actually make Elon’s life a bit easier,” and she explicitly said Tesla and SpaceX will “undoubtedly have synergies” in the future. She noted the two companies are moving toward converging technology goals, but added she is currently focused on SpaceX operations and has not announced a near‑term transaction timeline.
In its latest report on the 22nd, Jefferies no longer treats the Tesla‑SpaceX merger as mere rumor but analyzes its potential impact on Tesla’s share price. The firm warned that, if the merger occurs, Tesla stock could become a proxy for investors to indirectly track SpaceX performance, pushing Tesla’s valuation further away from the actual earnings potential of its automotive, robotics, and autonomous‑driving businesses. Wall Street analysts have already incorporated the merger into formal valuation models.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific profit‑taking or stop‑loss point.
Account:
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
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1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 36.5%. The account’s only historical trade correctly predicted the US‑Iran cease‑fire timing, earning $200k (+1,115%).
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 suspicious account bought “Will Netanyahu become Israel’s next prime minister?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 36.5%. The account’s only historical trade correctly predicted the US‑Iran cease‑fire timing, earning $200k (+1,115%).
Account 1’s strongest related sector in this market is Middle East, with sector net profit of $201k. It has a 1/1 (100%) win rate across 1 settled trade in this sector, including 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN