New Address Bets One Battle After Another to Win Best Picture at 98th Oscars
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
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New Address Bets $11k on US Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
------------------
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New Address Adds $1.5k to Khamenei Ouster Bet by Jan 31; Total Position $6.6k
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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Two New Addresses Bet $17.5k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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Account with 12-Win Streak on US-Iran Strikes Bets $24.6k on Attack Before March
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Opinion Airdrop Page Live; Points Campaign Ending; Market Bets on TGE Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
-------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
-------------------------
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Fed Expected to Hold Rates (99%); 7 New Accounts Bet $100k on Surprise Change
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to avoid political risk or pressure from criminal investigations. The mainstream view maintains that the Fed's independence remains robust, making such political influence on monetary policy highly unlikely.
Accounts: 0xeafb683cfcd9d67ba4e52ef7ef0d8ecbd6e684c7 0x57b22abadfcee23cbcbc875d1d6d89611369708c 0x8f7f1a21f901c49c80c8721ff9a28ea91f47492b 0x677ba84534e646d8f7eaa0189c46043230464c28 0xc413682b008fe27f6d92afad55d55b2c10c2370a 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf5466de09b6f6c5eff3aa78deb7e4c0bb1411e14
Position: $100k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to avoid political risk or pressure from criminal investigations. The mainstream view maintains that the Fed's independence remains robust, making such political influence on monetary policy highly unlikely.
Accounts: 0xeafb683cfcd9d67ba4e52ef7ef0d8ecbd6e684c7 0x57b22abadfcee23cbcbc875d1d6d89611369708c 0x8f7f1a21f901c49c80c8721ff9a28ea91f47492b 0x677ba84534e646d8f7eaa0189c46043230464c28 0xc413682b008fe27f6d92afad55d55b2c10c2370a 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf5466de09b6f6c5eff3aa78deb7e4c0bb1411e14
Position: $100k
-------------------
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2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
High-Win-Rate Crypto Specialist Bets MegaETH Won’t Airdrop Before Feb 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account opened a $2k position at an average price of 47¢ betting that MegaETH will not conduct an airdrop before February 15. The current probability for this outcome stands at 63%.
Profitability analysis indicates this account has secured 9 wins (+$33.2k) against 3 losses (-$759) in specific crypto prediction categories, including project launch FDV, Airdrop/TGE dates, and ICO raises. These statistics exclude bets on general token price movements.
The Ethereum Layer 2 project MegaETH saw its token, MEGA, added to the Coinbase listing roadmap on January 7. On January 23, the project announced the official launch of stress testing, with plans to replay all historical transactions within one week. As of January 28, MegaETH has not officially announced a confirmed airdrop date.
Account: 0xe7142d1bfd31dc215922a4c7b5ac613a3e01d510
Position: $2k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account opened a $2k position at an average price of 47¢ betting that MegaETH will not conduct an airdrop before February 15. The current probability for this outcome stands at 63%.
Profitability analysis indicates this account has secured 9 wins (+$33.2k) against 3 losses (-$759) in specific crypto prediction categories, including project launch FDV, Airdrop/TGE dates, and ICO raises. These statistics exclude bets on general token price movements.
The Ethereum Layer 2 project MegaETH saw its token, MEGA, added to the Coinbase listing roadmap on January 7. On January 23, the project announced the official launch of stress testing, with plans to replay all historical transactions within one week. As of January 28, MegaETH has not officially announced a confirmed airdrop date.
Account: 0xe7142d1bfd31dc215922a4c7b5ac613a3e01d510
Position: $2k
-----------------------
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New Address Bets $39.5k on US Strike on Iran by End of Feb or March
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Position: $39.5k
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $39.5k over the past day that the US will strike Iran before the end of February or March. The position includes $26.4k bet on a strike before March 31 (average entry 55¢, current price 56¢) and $13.1k bet on a strike before February 28 (average entry 46¢, current price 45¢).
The Guardian reports that the US has announced multi-day aerial military exercises in the Middle East led by US Central Command (CENTCOM), confirming the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group in the region. The drills involve multiple aircraft, including F-15Es and British Typhoon fighters, and are viewed as a demonstration of rapid deployment and air combat capabilities. Although officially labeled as routine, the exercises coincide with escalating US-Iran tensions and are interpreted as a preparatory posture for potential military action.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Position: $39.5k
----------------------
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High-Win-Rate Analyst Bets Israel Won’t Strike Lebanon Today; 85% Series Win Rate
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that exclusively bets on whether Israel will strike other nations has wagered $6.4k at an average price of 67¢ that Israel will not strike Lebanon today (January 28). The current probability of a strike stands at 43%.
Of the account's 34 historical trades, 33 were specific bets on whether Israel would strike Lebanon on a given date, resulting in a record of 28 wins (+$26.7k) and 5 losses (-$9.3k).
Tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain high. Israel has struck multiple Hezbollah targets over the past three days, causing the daily markets for those dates to resolve as "Yes." However, as of the morning of January 28, there have been no reports of new attacks, and the Israeli military has not announced further immediate operations.
Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21
Position: $6.4k
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that exclusively bets on whether Israel will strike other nations has wagered $6.4k at an average price of 67¢ that Israel will not strike Lebanon today (January 28). The current probability of a strike stands at 43%.
Of the account's 34 historical trades, 33 were specific bets on whether Israel would strike Lebanon on a given date, resulting in a record of 28 wins (+$26.7k) and 5 losses (-$9.3k).
Tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain high. Israel has struck multiple Hezbollah targets over the past three days, causing the daily markets for those dates to resolve as "Yes." However, as of the morning of January 28, there have been no reports of new attacks, and the Israeli military has not announced further immediate operations.
Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21
Position: $6.4k
---------------------
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Four New Addresses Bet $172k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $171.9k over the past day that the US government will not shut down on Saturday. Entry prices ranged from 22¢ to 24¢, with the current market price standing at 26¢.
Congress remains deeply divided over legislation regarding Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. Democratic senators are opposing the current budget proposal following a recent fatal shooting involving immigration enforcement, while Republicans and the White House insist on advancing a comprehensive spending bill that includes the DHS. As of now, there is no reliable confirmation that a final agreement has been reached ahead of the deadline.
Accounts: 0x1c12abb42d0427e70e144ae67c92951b232f79d9 0x6954d3e807749511e79f6f6c1cfe53a3be549fd8 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xdccc598a6a97d3e33e4b13c0a6cac1dc581641a6
Position: $172k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $171.9k over the past day that the US government will not shut down on Saturday. Entry prices ranged from 22¢ to 24¢, with the current market price standing at 26¢.
Congress remains deeply divided over legislation regarding Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. Democratic senators are opposing the current budget proposal following a recent fatal shooting involving immigration enforcement, while Republicans and the White House insist on advancing a comprehensive spending bill that includes the DHS. As of now, there is no reliable confirmation that a final agreement has been reached ahead of the deadline.
Accounts: 0x1c12abb42d0427e70e144ae67c92951b232f79d9 0x6954d3e807749511e79f6f6c1cfe53a3be549fd8 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xdccc598a6a97d3e33e4b13c0a6cac1dc581641a6
Position: $172k
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Takaichi Dissolves Lower House for Snap Election; Voter Turnout Market Goes Live
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "2026 Japanese General Election Voter Turnout" launched today.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, exercising her authority to dissolve the House of Representatives at any time, dissolved the lower house on January 23—the opening day of the Diet session—without facing representative questioning. Yesterday, she announced the general election will take place on February 8, declaring that she will resign if her ruling coalition fails to secure a majority of the votes.
Although Takaichi is currently Prime Minister, her ruling coalition holds only a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and is in the minority in the House of Councillors (Upper House). She requires a landslide victory to weaken the opposition's leverage in the Upper House.
A right-wing hawk frequently dubbed the "Asian female Trump," Takaichi is known for her radical policies and a style characterized by intense national pride. This move is widely viewed as a high-stakes political gamble aimed at consolidating power while her approval ratings remain relatively high.
-------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "2026 Japanese General Election Voter Turnout" launched today.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, exercising her authority to dissolve the House of Representatives at any time, dissolved the lower house on January 23—the opening day of the Diet session—without facing representative questioning. Yesterday, she announced the general election will take place on February 8, declaring that she will resign if her ruling coalition fails to secure a majority of the votes.
Although Takaichi is currently Prime Minister, her ruling coalition holds only a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and is in the minority in the House of Councillors (Upper House). She requires a landslide victory to weaken the opposition's leverage in the Upper House.
A right-wing hawk frequently dubbed the "Asian female Trump," Takaichi is known for her radical policies and a style characterized by intense national pride. This move is widely viewed as a high-stakes political gamble aimed at consolidating power while her approval ratings remain relatively high.
-------------------
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Two New Addresses Bet $8.4k on US or Israel Striking Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses wagered a total of $8.4k over the past day that either the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. Specifically, a $5k position targets a US strike before Jan 31 (average entry 11¢, current price 10¢), while a $3.4k position targets an Israeli strike before Jan 31 (average entry 8¢, current price 8¢).
On January 29, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is considering targeted military strikes against key Iranian figures and security institutions. The potential move aims to weaken the leadership structure to reignite protests and push for regime change, though no final decision has been reached. The report indicates that the US is continuing to increase military readiness in the Middle East, with Arab and Western diplomats warning that airstrikes could trigger a wider conflict.
Accounts: 0x311f215ca8405c1520681223da468feb9e8a331d 0xf0fe85263850116ba3ac3a88fffa6510cb763cf9
Total Position: $8.4k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses wagered a total of $8.4k over the past day that either the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. Specifically, a $5k position targets a US strike before Jan 31 (average entry 11¢, current price 10¢), while a $3.4k position targets an Israeli strike before Jan 31 (average entry 8¢, current price 8¢).
On January 29, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is considering targeted military strikes against key Iranian figures and security institutions. The potential move aims to weaken the leadership structure to reignite protests and push for regime change, though no final decision has been reached. The report indicates that the US is continuing to increase military readiness in the Middle East, with Arab and Western diplomats warning that airstrikes could trigger a wider conflict.
Accounts: 0x311f215ca8405c1520681223da468feb9e8a331d 0xf0fe85263850116ba3ac3a88fffa6510cb763cf9
Total Position: $8.4k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Polymarket Sets 75% Probability for Gold at $5,800/oz in Feb; Silver to Hit $130/oz at 78%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the total trading volume for February gold price forecasts stands at $190k. The implied probability of gold reaching $5,500/oz is 94%, with a 74% chance of hitting $5,800 and a 54% chance of touching $6,000. For the silver market, trading volume is around $200k, with probabilities of reaching $120, $130, and $140 per ounce standing at 85%, 78%, and 51%, respectively.
Driven by multiple safe-haven factors, gold and silver prices have continued to surge. Gold has repeatedly broken all-time highs intraday, surpassing $5,200/oz, while silver has broken through the $100 mark and continues to climb. Professional institutions suggest that while short-term upward momentum remains, investors should be wary of volatility risks due to high trading activity; meanwhile, some analysts warn that silver specifically faces significant pressure for a potential pullback.
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the total trading volume for February gold price forecasts stands at $190k. The implied probability of gold reaching $5,500/oz is 94%, with a 74% chance of hitting $5,800 and a 54% chance of touching $6,000. For the silver market, trading volume is around $200k, with probabilities of reaching $120, $130, and $140 per ounce standing at 85%, 78%, and 51%, respectively.
Driven by multiple safe-haven factors, gold and silver prices have continued to surge. Gold has repeatedly broken all-time highs intraday, surpassing $5,200/oz, while silver has broken through the $100 mark and continues to climb. Professional institutions suggest that while short-term upward momentum remains, investors should be wary of volatility risks due to high trading activity; meanwhile, some analysts warn that silver specifically faces significant pressure for a potential pullback.
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
'I-do-stupid-bets' Increases Position; 4 New Addresses Bet $29k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $29.1k over the past day that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. These positions were entered at an average price of 23–26¢, with the current price standing at 31¢. Additionally, the account "I-do-stupid-bets," reported yesterday, continued to add to its position, bringing its total exposure to $115.5k.
Senate Democratic Leader Schumer stated that he will not support the Department of Homeland Security funding bill unless it includes regulatory reforms for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), specifically requiring body cameras, the display of identification, and stricter search warrant protocols. This stance has heightened concerns that a partial government shutdown could occur after the weekend budget deadline.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xeafc018ccbca46db203ba57c3e798ce0e84fe4c4 0x54cfc493b01e31a787d4b4b9203c7bab9672a1ed 0x80441f6e4b8e9a702312c83381cbd5a947e7f3df 0x76dd9f47b2480d46250d55411f4f9eb2903145bb
Total Position: $144.7k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses wagered a total of $29.1k over the past day that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. These positions were entered at an average price of 23–26¢, with the current price standing at 31¢. Additionally, the account "I-do-stupid-bets," reported yesterday, continued to add to its position, bringing its total exposure to $115.5k.
Senate Democratic Leader Schumer stated that he will not support the Department of Homeland Security funding bill unless it includes regulatory reforms for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), specifically requiring body cameras, the display of identification, and stricter search warrant protocols. This stance has heightened concerns that a partial government shutdown could occur after the weekend budget deadline.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xeafc018ccbca46db203ba57c3e798ce0e84fe4c4 0x54cfc493b01e31a787d4b4b9203c7bab9672a1ed 0x80441f6e4b8e9a702312c83381cbd5a947e7f3df 0x76dd9f47b2480d46250d55411f4f9eb2903145bb
Total Position: $144.7k
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"10u Warrior" Becomes Top Holder; Bets $105.5k on Billionaire Wealth Tax Passing
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account previously noted for making only four small wagers has accumulated a total position of $105.5k betting that the proposal for a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the 2026 California election will pass. The position was built at an average price of 48¢, with the current market price at 38¢. This account is now the top holder in the market, holding a position ten times larger than the second-largest holder.
California is advancing a referendum proposal titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," intended for the November 2026 ballot. It seeks voter approval for a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, aiming to raise tens to hundreds of billions of dollars for state social services. While the proposal has garnered support from unions and other groups, it faces public opposition from the California Governor and tech leaders. Additionally, there are reports of some ultra-high-net-worth individuals already relocating to avoid the potential tax. The initiative is currently in the signature-gathering phase and has not yet qualified for the ballot or become law.
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $105.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account previously noted for making only four small wagers has accumulated a total position of $105.5k betting that the proposal for a one-time billionaire wealth tax in the 2026 California election will pass. The position was built at an average price of 48¢, with the current market price at 38¢. This account is now the top holder in the market, holding a position ten times larger than the second-largest holder.
California is advancing a referendum proposal titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," intended for the November 2026 ballot. It seeks voter approval for a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion, aiming to raise tens to hundreds of billions of dollars for state social services. While the proposal has garnered support from unions and other groups, it faces public opposition from the California Governor and tech leaders. Additionally, there are reports of some ultra-high-net-worth individuals already relocating to avoid the potential tax. The initiative is currently in the signature-gathering phase and has not yet qualified for the ballot or become law.
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $105.5k
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'better1000' Increases Bets on US Strike on Iran; Total Position Hits $70k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the "better1000" account—previously reported yesterday—has continued to increase its wager over the past day that the US will strike Iran across multiple deadlines. The account's total exposure has now reached $70k.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the past few days. President Trump publicly warned that "time is running out" and that the US may take "severer military action" if Iran does not reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Simultaneously, the deployment of a US carrier strike group and ongoing multi-day aerial exercises in the Middle East have bolstered US rapid strike capabilities. In response, Iran stated its military is prepared to launch a forceful counterattack against any aggression while expressing concern over regional stability. These developments indicate that the high-pressure standoff is likely to persist in the short term, with an elevated risk of military friction.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Total Position: $70k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the "better1000" account—previously reported yesterday—has continued to increase its wager over the past day that the US will strike Iran across multiple deadlines. The account's total exposure has now reached $70k.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the past few days. President Trump publicly warned that "time is running out" and that the US may take "severer military action" if Iran does not reach an agreement on the nuclear issue. Simultaneously, the deployment of a US carrier strike group and ongoing multi-day aerial exercises in the Middle East have bolstered US rapid strike capabilities. In response, Iran stated its military is prepared to launch a forceful counterattack against any aggression while expressing concern over regional stability. These developments indicate that the high-pressure standoff is likely to persist in the short term, with an elevated risk of military friction.
Account: 0xe13dabe73fbda02a0c7199e2f4a096aa8562441b
Total Position: $70k
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New Account Bets $3.6k on US Strike on Iran Within One Week; Linked to Crypto Market Maker Managing Over $1B
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $3.6k half an hour ago that the US will strike Iran. The current probability of a strike within the next 3 days stands at 10%.
On-chain fund tracing reveals the account is linked to QCP Capital, an institution often regarded as a representative of "Wall Street" in the crypto space. Founded in 2017, the firm is one of the largest institutional-grade liquidity providers and market makers in the cryptocurrency sector, managing over $1 billion in assets and serving as a key market-making partner for multiple major exchanges.
Fund Tracing: QCP -> 0x1443 -> 0x9577 -> 0x24d9 -> Relay -> Polymarket
Recently, multiple anonymous US sources revealed that following the Iranian authorities' crackdown on nationwide protests, President Trump is weighing various military options. These range from targeted strikes against security force commanders and institutions responsible for the suppression to larger-scale airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missile or nuclear enrichment programs. The aim is to bolster protester confidence and create conditions for "regime change," though Trump has not yet made a final decision.
Account: 0xda7d78f07cfb8bf638502768804b5f3909bdb858
Position: $3.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $3.6k half an hour ago that the US will strike Iran. The current probability of a strike within the next 3 days stands at 10%.
On-chain fund tracing reveals the account is linked to QCP Capital, an institution often regarded as a representative of "Wall Street" in the crypto space. Founded in 2017, the firm is one of the largest institutional-grade liquidity providers and market makers in the cryptocurrency sector, managing over $1 billion in assets and serving as a key market-making partner for multiple major exchanges.
Fund Tracing: QCP -> 0x1443 -> 0x9577 -> 0x24d9 -> Relay -> Polymarket
Recently, multiple anonymous US sources revealed that following the Iranian authorities' crackdown on nationwide protests, President Trump is weighing various military options. These range from targeted strikes against security force commanders and institutions responsible for the suppression to larger-scale airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missile or nuclear enrichment programs. The aim is to bolster protester confidence and create conditions for "regime change," though Trump has not yet made a final decision.
Account: 0xda7d78f07cfb8bf638502768804b5f3909bdb858
Position: $3.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
'I-do-stupid-bets' Adds $36k to No Gov Shutdown Bet; Two New Addresses Bet $7k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported account "I-do-stupid-bets" continued to increase its position over the past day, adding $36k to the wager that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. The account's total exposure has now reached $137.1k. Additionally, two new addresses opened positions totaling $7k on the same outcome.
The Financial Times reports that Trump and Senate Democrats have reached an agreement on a temporary spending deal. The agreement extends Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding through February 13, buying time for further negotiations. This temporary arrangement separates DHS funding from other major spending bills, marking a critical development to avoid a government shutdown this weekend.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xf329b0bdcfff6397ae689347323af06f71729ee4 0x836b2fba47bcc880c5b8d39050a8c599fd8c3c56
Total Position: $144.1k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the previously reported account "I-do-stupid-bets" continued to increase its position over the past day, adding $36k to the wager that the US government will not shut down this Saturday. The account's total exposure has now reached $137.1k. Additionally, two new addresses opened positions totaling $7k on the same outcome.
The Financial Times reports that Trump and Senate Democrats have reached an agreement on a temporary spending deal. The agreement extends Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding through February 13, buying time for further negotiations. This temporary arrangement separates DHS funding from other major spending bills, marking a critical development to avoid a government shutdown this weekend.
Accounts: 0x79bf43cbd005a51e25bafa4abe3f51a3c8ba96a8 0xf329b0bdcfff6397ae689347323af06f71729ee4 0x836b2fba47bcc880c5b8d39050a8c599fd8c3c56
Total Position: $144.1k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $39.8k on Khamenei Ouster by Jan 31 or Feb 28
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered a total of $39.8k that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31 or Feb 28. This includes a $32.8k bet that he will step down before Feb 28 (average entry 20¢, current price 20¢) and a $7k bet that he will step down before Jan 31 (average entry 9¢, current price 2¢).
Reuters reported on the 29th that US President Trump is considering targeted military strikes on Iran, potentially aiming at military facilities or leadership involved in suppressing dissent. The goal is to reignite internal protests and increase pressure on the current regime. These discussions arise amidst the ongoing crackdown under Khamenei's rule, though no final decision or substantive action has been taken to date.
Account: 0x976d6c17577fd7de2ad10b02c6bcd1d3b3147de0
Position: $39.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered a total of $39.8k that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31 or Feb 28. This includes a $32.8k bet that he will step down before Feb 28 (average entry 20¢, current price 20¢) and a $7k bet that he will step down before Jan 31 (average entry 9¢, current price 2¢).
Reuters reported on the 29th that US President Trump is considering targeted military strikes on Iran, potentially aiming at military facilities or leadership involved in suppressing dissent. The goal is to reignite internal protests and increase pressure on the current regime. These discussions arise amidst the ongoing crackdown under Khamenei's rule, though no final decision or substantive action has been taken to date.
Account: 0x976d6c17577fd7de2ad10b02c6bcd1d3b3147de0
Position: $39.8k
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