3 accounts bought “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal before July 31, 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
Account 1’s best related sector to this market is US‑Iran, with a sector net profit of $11.1k. It has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades in that sector, including 3 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This stake is 23.8 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best related sector to this market is Strait of Hormuz, with a sector net profit of $82.6k. It has a win rate of 8/12 (67%) across 12 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s best related sector to this market is Oil, with a sector net profit of $3.6k. It has a win rate of 6/6 (100%) across 6 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $5.3k on “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3%; the current “Yes” probability is 22.0%.
Starting on the 5th, China lowered the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel, the second reduction since the Iran war; OilChem data show Chinese gasoline and diesel consumption fell about 16% year‑on‑year in April and continued to drop about 13% in May, markedly weaker than the 3.7% annual decline projected for 2025. JLC expects June gasoline demand to remain suppressed by high oil prices and electric‑vehicle substitution, while diesel may see a slight rebound from summer harvest activity, but alternative energy and El Niño‑related rainfall will still drag down overall diesel consumption.
Today Reuters reported that oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday, driven by Hezbollah’s rejection of a U.S.–mediated cease‑fire plan for Lebanon and the temporary shutdown of Oman’s Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion; however, even with these tailwinds, Brent rose only to $95.36 and WTI to $93.06. Even though Hormuz traffic remains constrained and U.S.–Iran peace talks are delayed, the market has not pushed prices above $100.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific point to take profit or cut losses.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $5.3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $5.3k on “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3%; the current “Yes” probability is 22.0%.
0xe734e7bf invested $5.3k, and the market’s top correlated sector is Oil, with a sector net profit of $211k. Across 118 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 59/118 (50%); among them, 28 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $13.5k.
Starting on the 5th, China lowered the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel, the second reduction since the Iran war; OilChem data show Chinese gasoline and diesel consumption fell about 16% year‑on‑year in April and continued to drop about 13% in May, markedly weaker than the 3.7% annual decline projected for 2025. JLC expects June gasoline demand to remain suppressed by high oil prices and electric‑vehicle substitution, while diesel may see a slight rebound from summer harvest activity, but alternative energy and El Niño‑related rainfall will still drag down overall diesel consumption.
Today Reuters reported that oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday, driven by Hezbollah’s rejection of a U.S.–mediated cease‑fire plan for Lebanon and the temporary shutdown of Oman’s Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion; however, even with these tailwinds, Brent rose only to $95.36 and WTI to $93.06. Even though Hormuz traffic remains constrained and U.S.–Iran peace talks are delayed, the market has not pushed prices above $100.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific point to take profit or cut losses.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $5.3k
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1 smart money bought “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k “Yes” on “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.0%, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.5%.
The Financial Times reported on the 3rd that Starmer is pushing the final batch of “wish‑list” policies ahead of a potential power transition, including a multi‑year defense investment plan, a ban on social media for under‑16s, and a restart of UK‑EU relations; currently Downing Street is permeated with a sense of resignation, ministers and staff morale are low, and Starmer may be ousted within weeks.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said that if he wins the Makerfield by‑election on June 18 and secures the support of at least 81 Labour MPs, he will seek to join a leadership challenge against UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Keir Starmer. It should be noted that settlement in this market does not require an actual process to conclude, only that Starmer publicly announces his resignation.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at some point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
Total investment: $2.1k
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k “Yes” on “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.0%, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.5%.
0x12b8e7c1 invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $18.5k. In that sector they have 146 settled trades with a win rate of 114/146 (78%), including 14 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $1.7k.
The Financial Times reported on the 3rd that Starmer is pushing the final batch of “wish‑list” policies ahead of a potential power transition, including a multi‑year defense investment plan, a ban on social media for under‑16s, and a restart of UK‑EU relations; currently Downing Street is permeated with a sense of resignation, ministers and staff morale are low, and Starmer may be ousted within weeks.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said that if he wins the Makerfield by‑election on June 18 and secures the support of at least 81 Labour MPs, he will seek to join a leadership challenge against UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Keir Starmer. It should be noted that settlement in this market does not require an actual process to conclude, only that Starmer publicly announces his resignation.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at some point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
Total investment: $2.1k
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🔥1
2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 31.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 31.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $8.4k. It has a win rate of 9/10 (90%) across 10 settled trades in that sector, including 3 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector in this market is Ukraine, with a sector net profit of $130k. It has a win rate of 205/281 (73%) across 281 settled trades in that sector, including 116 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 53.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 45.0%.
AP reported on June 4 that the United States imposed sanctions on the Cuban president, his wife, and others. When asked whether the aim was to accelerate the collapse of the Cuban regime, Trump said the United States simply wants Cuba to become a well‑governed country and claimed Cuba has “to some extent collapsed,” adding that the U.S. will address the Cuba issue after completing actions toward Iran.
Militarily, the scope of U.S. operations expanded markedly in Trump’s second term, including actions in the Caribbean and the East Pacific against suspected drug‑smuggling vessels; Axios noted recent military buildup near Cuba, with Trump pushing for political change in Cuba but favoring a peaceful transition. CNN also reported that the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier to the region, and Secretary of State Rubio repeatedly described Cuba as a threat to the United States, while also stating that the U.S. is open to negotiation plans that could lead Cuba toward democracy, prosperity, freedom, and normalization.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $1.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 53.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 45.0%.
0x29d33707 invested $1.1k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $90.5k. Across 104 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 78/104 (75%); 41 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.451‑$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $939.
AP reported on June 4 that the United States imposed sanctions on the Cuban president, his wife, and others. When asked whether the aim was to accelerate the collapse of the Cuban regime, Trump said the United States simply wants Cuba to become a well‑governed country and claimed Cuba has “to some extent collapsed,” adding that the U.S. will address the Cuba issue after completing actions toward Iran.
Militarily, the scope of U.S. operations expanded markedly in Trump’s second term, including actions in the Caribbean and the East Pacific against suspected drug‑smuggling vessels; Axios noted recent military buildup near Cuba, with Trump pushing for political change in Cuba but favoring a peaceful transition. CNN also reported that the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier to the region, and Secretary of State Rubio repeatedly described Cuba as a threat to the United States, while also stating that the U.S. is open to negotiation plans that could lead Cuba toward democracy, prosperity, freedom, and normalization.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $1.1k
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1 new account bought “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.5k in “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 28.8%.
Israel’s parliamentary election was originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, who led the IDF from 2015‑2019; after the 2023 Gaza war broke out, he joined the wartime cabinet as a member of the National Unity camp, and later left the government in 2024 with Benny Gantz’s camp. In 2025, he founded the Yashar! party, emphasizing security experience, national unity, and an anti‑Netanyahu stance.
Since the Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill 106‑0, the current timeline is setting the election window between September 8 and October 20. Direct Polls, released by i24NEWS in late May, showed both the Netanyahu camp and the opposition camp holding 60 seats each, both below the 61‑seat coalition threshold; among them, Eizenkot’s Yashar! was listed as a breakthrough party in this round, winning 17 seats and becoming the second‑largest party in the Knesset.
Account:
0xa8c985c00a37dcffd745fd393a1719de718b1425
Total investment: $2.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.5k in “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 28.8%.
Israel’s parliamentary election was originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, who led the IDF from 2015‑2019; after the 2023 Gaza war broke out, he joined the wartime cabinet as a member of the National Unity camp, and later left the government in 2024 with Benny Gantz’s camp. In 2025, he founded the Yashar! party, emphasizing security experience, national unity, and an anti‑Netanyahu stance.
Since the Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill 106‑0, the current timeline is setting the election window between September 8 and October 20. Direct Polls, released by i24NEWS in late May, showed both the Netanyahu camp and the opposition camp holding 60 seats each, both below the 61‑seat coalition threshold; among them, Eizenkot’s Yashar! was listed as a breakthrough party in this round, winning 17 seats and becoming the second‑largest party in the Knesset.
Account:
0xa8c985c00a37dcffd745fd393a1719de718b1425
Total investment: $2.5k
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.3k on “No” for “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.3%.
AP reported on June 3 that the House passed, by a vote of 215‑208, a resolution demanding an end to U.S. military actions against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats—marking the first time Congress has successfully passed a restrictive vote on Trump’s Iran war. The resolution requires the president to withdraw U.S. forces from hostile actions against Iran without a formal declaration of war or explicit authorization.
Because the rules require both chambers to pass the resolution, the next steps depend on the Senate’s actions. CBS reported on May 19 that the Senate had previously advanced the Iran war‑powers resolution led by Tim Kaine out of committee by a 50‑47 vote. Axios wrote on June 3 that the next procedural vote could fail once attendance returns to full strength; PolitiFact noted on June 4 that a full‑senate vote would still need 60 votes to reach final approval, meaning 10 more votes than on May 19. Additionally, each chamber currently has its own version of the resolution, and further coordination and a new vote may be required.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x06521fb68bb128840b62ea646fcb2d40682c9134
Total investment: $1.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.3k on “No” for “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.3%.
0x06521fb6 invested $1.3k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $5.6k. Across 17 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 16/17 (94%); there were 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.801‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $9.3k.
AP reported on June 3 that the House passed, by a vote of 215‑208, a resolution demanding an end to U.S. military actions against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats—marking the first time Congress has successfully passed a restrictive vote on Trump’s Iran war. The resolution requires the president to withdraw U.S. forces from hostile actions against Iran without a formal declaration of war or explicit authorization.
Because the rules require both chambers to pass the resolution, the next steps depend on the Senate’s actions. CBS reported on May 19 that the Senate had previously advanced the Iran war‑powers resolution led by Tim Kaine out of committee by a 50‑47 vote. Axios wrote on June 3 that the next procedural vote could fail once attendance returns to full strength; PolitiFact noted on June 4 that a full‑senate vote would still need 60 votes to reach final approval, meaning 10 more votes than on May 19. Additionally, each chamber currently has its own version of the resolution, and further coordination and a new vote may be required.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x06521fb68bb128840b62ea646fcb2d40682c9134
Total investment: $1.3k
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3 accounts bought “Will ___ win the 2026 NBA championship?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “___Will win the 2026 NBA championship?”.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “___Will win the 2026 NBA championship?”.
Account 1’s top related sector in this market is NBA, with sector net profit of $47.7k. It has a win rate of 67/102 (66%) across 102 settled trades in that sector, including 23 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s top related sector in this market is NBA, with sector net profit of $124k. It has a win rate of 136/220 (62%) across 220 settled trades in that sector, including 85 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s top related sector in this market is 2026 NBA Playoffs, with sector net profit of $1.1k. It has a win rate of 14/20 (70%) across 20 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 Smart Money Investor Bought “Will Russia and Ukraine Reach a Ceasefire Agreement by December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $5.0k on “Will Russia and Ukraine Reach a Ceasefire Agreement by December 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 50.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 51.5%.
On June 4, President Zelenskyy issued an open letter to President Putin, proposing that the two meet directly in a neutral third country and stating that Ukraine supports a comprehensive ceasefire during negotiations, with the United States capable of monitoring the ceasefire line. Trump later said a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy would be a good thing and that both sides need to make compromises.
However, Russia’s statements still carry clear hard conditions. On the same day, Putin said Russian forces continue to advance daily and claimed Russia has fully controlled Luhansk, controls more than 85% of Donetsk, and about 80% of Zaporizhzhia; he also said that if Ukraine accepts the “compromise” discussed at last year’s Anchorage talks, the conflict could be ended diplomatically. Reuters interpreted this as Moscow demanding that Ukraine hand over the remaining Donbas areas still under Kyiv’s control, a core red line that Ukraine has found difficult to accept.
It should be noted that a “ceasefire agreement” only requires Russia and Ukraine to jointly agree to pause direct military fighting and to be announced by the two governments; a “peace agreement” must list both Ukraine and Russia as parties and either end hostilities/establish a ceasefire or commit both sides to a principled, step‑by‑step or timed process to end the war.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939
Total investment: $5.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $5.0k on “Will Russia and Ukraine Reach a Ceasefire Agreement by December 31, 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 50.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 51.5%.
0x8c57f67a invested $5.0k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $41.9k. Across 117 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 98/117 (84%), including 35 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $165, and this investment is 30.3 times that median.
On June 4, President Zelenskyy issued an open letter to President Putin, proposing that the two meet directly in a neutral third country and stating that Ukraine supports a comprehensive ceasefire during negotiations, with the United States capable of monitoring the ceasefire line. Trump later said a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy would be a good thing and that both sides need to make compromises.
However, Russia’s statements still carry clear hard conditions. On the same day, Putin said Russian forces continue to advance daily and claimed Russia has fully controlled Luhansk, controls more than 85% of Donetsk, and about 80% of Zaporizhzhia; he also said that if Ukraine accepts the “compromise” discussed at last year’s Anchorage talks, the conflict could be ended diplomatically. Reuters interpreted this as Moscow demanding that Ukraine hand over the remaining Donbas areas still under Kyiv’s control, a core red line that Ukraine has found difficult to accept.
It should be noted that a “ceasefire agreement” only requires Russia and Ukraine to jointly agree to pause direct military fighting and to be announced by the two governments; a “peace agreement” must list both Ukraine and Russia as parties and either end hostilities/establish a ceasefire or commit both sides to a principled, step‑by‑step or timed process to end the war.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939
Total investment: $5.0k
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will ___ win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “___Will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “___Will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”.
This account’s top related sector in this market is soccer, with a sector net profit of $20.2k. Across 32 settled trades in this sector, its win rate is 30/32 (94%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 232.3 times the median of its historical investments within a similar cost range.
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1 account bought “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between June 2‑8?”
On the prediction market Polymarket an hour ago, 1 account bought “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between June 2‑8?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 85.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket an hour ago, 1 account bought “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between June 2‑8?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 85.5%.
This account’s strongest related sector in this market is Cryptocurrency, with a sector net profit of $11.8k. It has a 1/1 (100%) win rate across 1 settled trade in this sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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The “Yes” probability for “Will Israel close its airspace before June 9?” rose from 46.7% to 72.4%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 5 minutes the “Will Israel close its airspace before June 9?” “Yes” probability climbed from 46.7% to 72.4%, with total buy‑side volume of $1.2k.
On June 7, after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran launched multiple missile rounds at Israel; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the targets included the Ramat David air base near Nazareth, while Israeli media reported the missiles were aimed at Israel’s north, the Sharon region, and Samaria. Iran then closed its western airspace to prepare for possible Israeli retaliation.
AP reported on the 8th that Israel carried out airstrikes on Iranian central and western military targets in the early hours; Iran subsequently closed the airspace around Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport after the Israeli strike. Ben Gurion Airport in Israel also temporarily halted flights, but Israeli media added that even if Iranian missiles were directed at central Israel, it does not necessarily mean Ben Gurion Airport will remain closed long‑term.
More crucially, Trump’s involvement. Axios reported that after the Iranian missile attack, Trump was ready to call Netanyahu, urging Israel not to retaliate; U.S. officials said Trump asked Netanyahu to pause during the call because the United States was “close to reaching a good deal with Iran.” Nevertheless, Israel still carried out an airstrike on Iran in the early hours of the 8th, indicating the limited effect of U.S. pressure to curb the escalation.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 5 minutes the “Will Israel close its airspace before June 9?” “Yes” probability climbed from 46.7% to 72.4%, with total buy‑side volume of $1.2k.
On June 7, after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, Iran launched multiple missile rounds at Israel; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the targets included the Ramat David air base near Nazareth, while Israeli media reported the missiles were aimed at Israel’s north, the Sharon region, and Samaria. Iran then closed its western airspace to prepare for possible Israeli retaliation.
AP reported on the 8th that Israel carried out airstrikes on Iranian central and western military targets in the early hours; Iran subsequently closed the airspace around Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport after the Israeli strike. Ben Gurion Airport in Israel also temporarily halted flights, but Israeli media added that even if Iranian missiles were directed at central Israel, it does not necessarily mean Ben Gurion Airport will remain closed long‑term.
More crucially, Trump’s involvement. Axios reported that after the Iranian missile attack, Trump was ready to call Netanyahu, urging Israel not to retaliate; U.S. officials said Trump asked Netanyahu to pause during the call because the United States was “close to reaching a good deal with Iran.” Nevertheless, Israel still carried out an airstrike on Iran in the early hours of the 8th, indicating the limited effect of U.S. pressure to curb the escalation.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Claude 5 be released before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.6k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 38.9% and a current “Yes” probability of 66.0%.
Reuters reported on May 28 that Anthropic, while launching Claude Opus 4.8, is preparing to roll out the powerful, market‑moving Mythos model to all customers in the coming weeks.
In an official post on the 2nd, Anthropic wrote that the company is working to safely release general access to Mythos‑level capabilities as quickly as possible, but stronger anti‑abuse safeguards are needed; cybersecurity capabilities serve both defensive and offensive purposes, so creating protections that are sufficiently strong and precise is the main challenge.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 5th that Anthropic disclosed Claude has now written over 80% of the merged code in the company’s production codebase and warned that AI is beginning to accelerate AI development itself; in internal tests, the unreleased Mythos Preview achieved roughly a 52‑fold speedup on code‑optimization training tasks.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a later time.
Account:
0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.6k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 38.9% and a current “Yes” probability of 66.0%.
The-Joker invested $1.6k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Artificial Intelligence, with a sector net profit of $27.7k. Across 210 settled trades in this sector, their win rate is 168/210 (80%), including 41 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $178.
Reuters reported on May 28 that Anthropic, while launching Claude Opus 4.8, is preparing to roll out the powerful, market‑moving Mythos model to all customers in the coming weeks.
In an official post on the 2nd, Anthropic wrote that the company is working to safely release general access to Mythos‑level capabilities as quickly as possible, but stronger anti‑abuse safeguards are needed; cybersecurity capabilities serve both defensive and offensive purposes, so creating protections that are sufficiently strong and precise is the main challenge.
Tom’s Hardware reported on the 5th that Anthropic disclosed Claude has now written over 80% of the merged code in the company’s production codebase and warned that AI is beginning to accelerate AI development itself; in internal tests, the unreleased Mythos Preview achieved roughly a 52‑fold speedup on code‑optimization training tasks.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a later time.
Account:
0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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1 account bought “Will Israel strike Yemen before June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 account invested $1.6k on “Will Israel strike Yemen before June 30, 2026?” with “Yes”, at an average purchase probability of 43.0%, raising the “Yes” probability from 36.0% to 43.3%.
After Israel’s airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on June 7, Iran launched missiles at Israel for the first time since the fragile cease‑fire on April 8; the IRGC said the targets included Israel’s northern Ramat David air base and warned that if Israel continues to expand strikes on Lebanon and Iran‑linked targets, the response will cover a broader area.
Trump then called Netanyahu, asking Israel not to retaliate against Iran immediately. AP reported that U.S. officials believe Trump briefly persuaded Netanyahu to hold off; however, Israel still carried out airstrikes on Iranian central and western military targets in the early hours of June 8.
Following Israel’s strike on Iran, both Axios and AP reported that a missile from Yemen was launched toward central Israel and was intercepted, triggering an alarm in Tel Aviv. AP said there were no casualties or impact reports, and the Houthi group has not immediately claimed responsibility; nevertheless, this is seen as a signal that the Yemen front may re‑enter the Israel‑Iran conflict.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0484ced2f7764c28c0eef3514b48682ee0cde0ee
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 account invested $1.6k on “Will Israel strike Yemen before June 30, 2026?” with “Yes”, at an average purchase probability of 43.0%, raising the “Yes” probability from 36.0% to 43.3%.
0x0484ced2 invested $1.6k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $15.0k. In that sector, the trader has a win‑rate of 71/122 (58%) across 122 settled trades, including 36 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $305.
After Israel’s airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on June 7, Iran launched missiles at Israel for the first time since the fragile cease‑fire on April 8; the IRGC said the targets included Israel’s northern Ramat David air base and warned that if Israel continues to expand strikes on Lebanon and Iran‑linked targets, the response will cover a broader area.
Trump then called Netanyahu, asking Israel not to retaliate against Iran immediately. AP reported that U.S. officials believe Trump briefly persuaded Netanyahu to hold off; however, Israel still carried out airstrikes on Iranian central and western military targets in the early hours of June 8.
Following Israel’s strike on Iran, both Axios and AP reported that a missile from Yemen was launched toward central Israel and was intercepted, triggering an alarm in Tel Aviv. AP said there were no casualties or impact reports, and the Houthi group has not immediately claimed responsibility; nevertheless, this is seen as a signal that the Yemen front may re‑enter the Israel‑Iran conflict.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0484ced2f7764c28c0eef3514b48682ee0cde0ee
Total investment: $1.6k
---------------------------------
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2 accounts bought “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.2 trillion?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.2 trillion?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 45.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.2 trillion?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 45.5%.
Account 1’s best‑correlated sector in this market is Big Tech, with sector net profit of $17.9k. It has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades in that sector, including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 12 minutes ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $40.4k on “No” for “Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 29.1%; the current “Yes” probability is 73.5%.
El País’s live coverage of the Peruvian election wrote that the preliminary rapid count of the second round gave Sánchez a slight edge over Fujimori; the report also emphasized that the two candidates represent completely opposite political directions, with Fujimori continuing her father’s controversial political legacy, while Sánchez inherits the left‑wing and rural political symbolism of the imprisoned former president Castillo. Ipsos data show that Sánchez has shifted from trailing to a narrow lead of 50.3% to 49.7%.
The reversal logic mainly stems from three lines: rural, southern and indigenous vote bases remain concentrated; Sánchez softened his economic stance toward centrist voters in the final week; anti‑Fujimori sentiment was reignited in the closing stage.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Sánchez changed his tone before the runoff, adopting a more pragmatic economic narrative; he told reporters, “Clinging to something unworkable is unwise,” and acknowledged that the Iran war‑driven fuel price rise and other global headwinds are making his economic agenda more cautious. Sánchez’s biggest weakness had been the radical left label, which he is now actively soothing among centrist voters.
In May, Sánchez appointed former economy minister Pedro Francke as senior advisor, and Francke is seen as a more market‑friendly voice; in a televised debate Francke pledged that the Sánchez government would promote private investment, respect existing mining contracts, preserve central‑bank independence, and explicitly said “there will be no nationalizations.” Sánchez still retains a left‑wing redistribution narrative but no longer triggers panic in financial markets and urban middle class.
El País analysis says anti‑Fujimori sentiment re‑emerged as a key force in the final stage of the Peruvian election, especially among young and progressive groups; at the same time, the southern Andean region—including Puno, Cusco, Ayacucho and Apurímac—is a decisive vote bloc, with Sánchez already leading there in the first round, while Fujimori received very low support in those areas.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x784feec38475dc47e63c3a16cbd24b905dab5df9
Total investment: $40.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 12 minutes ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $40.4k on “No” for “Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 29.1%; the current “Yes” probability is 73.5%.
0x784feec3 invested $40.4k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $162k. In that sector, across 355 settled trades, the win rate is 144/355 (41%); among them, 66 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $1.5k, and this investment is 27.6 times that median.
El País’s live coverage of the Peruvian election wrote that the preliminary rapid count of the second round gave Sánchez a slight edge over Fujimori; the report also emphasized that the two candidates represent completely opposite political directions, with Fujimori continuing her father’s controversial political legacy, while Sánchez inherits the left‑wing and rural political symbolism of the imprisoned former president Castillo. Ipsos data show that Sánchez has shifted from trailing to a narrow lead of 50.3% to 49.7%.
The reversal logic mainly stems from three lines: rural, southern and indigenous vote bases remain concentrated; Sánchez softened his economic stance toward centrist voters in the final week; anti‑Fujimori sentiment was reignited in the closing stage.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Sánchez changed his tone before the runoff, adopting a more pragmatic economic narrative; he told reporters, “Clinging to something unworkable is unwise,” and acknowledged that the Iran war‑driven fuel price rise and other global headwinds are making his economic agenda more cautious. Sánchez’s biggest weakness had been the radical left label, which he is now actively soothing among centrist voters.
In May, Sánchez appointed former economy minister Pedro Francke as senior advisor, and Francke is seen as a more market‑friendly voice; in a televised debate Francke pledged that the Sánchez government would promote private investment, respect existing mining contracts, preserve central‑bank independence, and explicitly said “there will be no nationalizations.” Sánchez still retains a left‑wing redistribution narrative but no longer triggers panic in financial markets and urban middle class.
El País analysis says anti‑Fujimori sentiment re‑emerged as a key force in the final stage of the Peruvian election, especially among young and progressive groups; at the same time, the southern Andean region—including Puno, Cusco, Ayacucho and Apurímac—is a decisive vote bloc, with Sánchez already leading there in the first round, while Fujimori received very low support in those areas.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x784feec38475dc47e63c3a16cbd24b905dab5df9
Total investment: $40.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.7k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before June 30 2026?” with the “Yes” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 8.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 7.0%.
AP reported on the 4th that after Zelensky called for face‑to‑face talks with Putin, Trump gave a positive response in Washington, saying it would be “great” if Putin and Zelensky met and that “they should get it done”; he also said both sides need to make compromises.
AP today reported that British Prime Minister Starmer hosted Zelensky, the French president and the German chancellor in London for a four‑party meeting. The talks emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need to expand missile defense, air‑defense interceptors and long‑range strike capabilities, while also putting a cease‑fire back on the negotiation table. AP wrote that the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Ukraine called after the meeting for Putin to accept an “immediate, complete cease‑fire,” and suggested using the “current front line as the starting point for any negotiations.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $4.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $4.7k on “Will Russia and Ukraine reach a cease‑fire agreement before June 30 2026?” with the “Yes” outcome, at an average purchase probability of 8.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 7.0%.
Ferwhere invested $4.7k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Putin, which has a net profit of $172k. In that sector, they have 2 settled trades with a win rate of 1/2 (50%), including 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
AP reported on the 4th that after Zelensky called for face‑to‑face talks with Putin, Trump gave a positive response in Washington, saying it would be “great” if Putin and Zelensky met and that “they should get it done”; he also said both sides need to make compromises.
AP today reported that British Prime Minister Starmer hosted Zelensky, the French president and the German chancellor in London for a four‑party meeting. The talks emphasized Ukraine’s urgent need to expand missile defense, air‑defense interceptors and long‑range strike capabilities, while also putting a cease‑fire back on the negotiation table. AP wrote that the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Ukraine called after the meeting for Putin to accept an “immediate, complete cease‑fire,” and suggested using the “current front line as the starting point for any negotiations.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $4.7k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Who will IPO first, Anthropic or OpenAI”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor purchased “Who will IPO first, Anthropic or OpenAI?”, currently the probability for “Anthropic” is 82.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor purchased “Who will IPO first, Anthropic or OpenAI?”, currently the probability for “Anthropic” is 82.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Finance, with sector net profit of $14.4k. It has a win rate of 23/23 (100%) across 23 settled trades in this sector, including 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will OpenSea launch a governance token before December 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.3k on “Will OpenSea launch a governance token before December 31 2026?” with the “No” outcome, averaging a purchase probability of 48.1%. The current “Yes” probability is 43.0%.
The earliest expectation for an OpenSea token came in October last year. BlockBeats reported that OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer said SEA would launch in Q1 2026, with 50% of the supply allocated to the community and 50% of platform revenue used for SEA buybacks at launch; SEA would also be deeply integrated into OpenSea, supporting staking and other uses.
However, a key turning point occurred on March 17. The OpenSea CEO confirmed a delay to the originally planned token issuance timeline, citing a challenging crypto market environment and the need to ensure all preparations were fully ready. Following that statement, the probability of a token launch before the end of June fell from 60% to 15%.
OpenSea’s help center shows that Wave 6 is the final rewards round, with no new rewards wave planned after it ends on March 30; starting March 31, token swap fees drop to 0% for 60 days; previously issued Treasures will be “meaningfully considered” by the OpenSea Foundation. This indicates SEA has not been cancelled, but there is no new definitive TGE schedule.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $1.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.3k on “Will OpenSea launch a governance token before December 31 2026?” with the “No” outcome, averaging a purchase probability of 48.1%. The current “Yes” probability is 43.0%.
Parz1vaI invested $1.3k, with the market’s best correlated sector being pre‑market trading, which has a net profit of $15.8k. In that sector, they have a win rate of 87/104 (84%) across 104 settled trades, including 11 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $1.7k.
The earliest expectation for an OpenSea token came in October last year. BlockBeats reported that OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer said SEA would launch in Q1 2026, with 50% of the supply allocated to the community and 50% of platform revenue used for SEA buybacks at launch; SEA would also be deeply integrated into OpenSea, supporting staking and other uses.
However, a key turning point occurred on March 17. The OpenSea CEO confirmed a delay to the originally planned token issuance timeline, citing a challenging crypto market environment and the need to ensure all preparations were fully ready. Following that statement, the probability of a token launch before the end of June fell from 60% to 15%.
OpenSea’s help center shows that Wave 6 is the final rewards round, with no new rewards wave planned after it ends on March 30; starting March 31, token swap fees drop to 0% for 60 days; previously issued Treasures will be “meaningfully considered” by the OpenSea Foundation. This indicates SEA has not been cancelled, but there is no new definitive TGE schedule.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $1.3k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.0k on “Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” on the “Yes” side, with an average purchase probability of 59.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 53.5%.
In the June 2 Los Angeles primary landscape, Karen Bass is first, already secured for the November runoff; the second place is not yet set, but Nithya Raman has now overtaken Spencer Pratt and sits second.
The latest vote totals are roughly: Bass about 34.6% in first, Raman about 27.1% in second, Pratt about 26.7% in third. Pratt was briefly second on election night, but as mailed ballots continued to be counted Raman later passed him; AP reported on June 8 that Raman leads Pratt by about 0.4 percentage points, roughly 3,100 votes.
CalMatters analysis says the race brings good news for Bass: she leads a crowded field and has secured a spot in the November runoff; more importantly, she may face her most desired opponent, Spencer Pratt. Pratt’s 30% is closer to his upper bound than his lower bound, while Raman’s supporters largely come from Bass’s left flank, and internal polls of Bass’s camp show over 90% of Raman supporters view Bass as their second choice.
The Guardian reports that although Bass has reached the November 2026 general election runoff, she failed to exceed 50% to avoid a second round; she was criticized for being overseas during the 2025 wildfires, and her approval rating has slipped. Nevertheless, Bass still receives support from heavyweight Democrats such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, and she is focusing her campaign on homelessness and housing construction.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x7ac83882979ccb5665cea83cb269e558b55077cd
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $3.0k on “Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” on the “Yes” side, with an average purchase probability of 59.6% and a current “Yes” probability of 53.5%.
nicoco89 invested $3.0k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $87.9k. In that sector they have 1,625 settled trades with a win rate of 1,059/1,625 (65%); among them, 452 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $62, and this investment is 48.1 times that median.
In the June 2 Los Angeles primary landscape, Karen Bass is first, already secured for the November runoff; the second place is not yet set, but Nithya Raman has now overtaken Spencer Pratt and sits second.
The latest vote totals are roughly: Bass about 34.6% in first, Raman about 27.1% in second, Pratt about 26.7% in third. Pratt was briefly second on election night, but as mailed ballots continued to be counted Raman later passed him; AP reported on June 8 that Raman leads Pratt by about 0.4 percentage points, roughly 3,100 votes.
CalMatters analysis says the race brings good news for Bass: she leads a crowded field and has secured a spot in the November runoff; more importantly, she may face her most desired opponent, Spencer Pratt. Pratt’s 30% is closer to his upper bound than his lower bound, while Raman’s supporters largely come from Bass’s left flank, and internal polls of Bass’s camp show over 90% of Raman supporters view Bass as their second choice.
The Guardian reports that although Bass has reached the November 2026 general election runoff, she failed to exceed 50% to avoid a second round; she was criticized for being overseas during the 2025 wildfires, and her approval rating has slipped. Nevertheless, Bass still receives support from heavyweight Democrats such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris, and she is focusing her campaign on homelessness and housing construction.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x7ac83882979ccb5665cea83cb269e558b55077cd
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 15.2%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting activity, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 15.2%.
Account 1’s best‑correlated sector in this market is World Macro, with sector net profit of $83.3k. Across 65 settled trades in this sector, its win rate is 36/65 (55%), including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting activity, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
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