1 smart money investor bought “2026 FIFA World Cup: USA vs Paraguay, will the USA win within the 90 minutes of regular time”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed a $5.4k “Yes” on “2026 FIFA World Cup: USA vs Paraguay, will the USA win within the 90 minutes of regular time?”, with an average entry probability of 49.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 48.5%.
The market settles based only on the 90 minutes of regular time plus stoppage time, excluding overtime or penalty shootouts; if the USA defeats Paraguay in regular time, it settles as “Yes,” otherwise “No.” If the match is postponed, the market remains open until the match is completed; if the match is cancelled with no reschedule, it settles as “No.”
This match is the USA’s opening Group D game of the 2026 World Cup, taking place on June 12 at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium, marking the USA’s home‑court debut. The other Group D teams are Australia and Turkey; the USA will face Australia on June 19 and Turkey on June 25.
The US Soccer Federation announced a 26‑player roster on May 26, featuring core players such as Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Tim Weah, Gio Reyna, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams. Official data shows Balogun, Pepi, and Haji Wright have combined for 56 club goals this season. On May 31, the USA beat FIFA‑ranked‑14 Senegal 3‑2 in a warm‑up, with Pulisic providing a goal and an assist and Balogun scoring the winner.
The most recent meeting also favored the USA. US Soccer records indicate that on November 15, 2025, the USA defeated World Cup‑qualified Paraguay 2‑1 in Chester, Pennsylvania, with goals from Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun.
Note: Based on the trader’s past behavior, this position is not a simple wager on the event occurring; the trader may close the position for profit or loss at a chosen time.
Account:
0xa974826f82380f9bb3d5b9c722c50f82fb1aef79
Total investment: $5.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed a $5.4k “Yes” on “2026 FIFA World Cup: USA vs Paraguay, will the USA win within the 90 minutes of regular time?”, with an average entry probability of 49.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 48.5%.
0xa974826f invested $5.4k, and the market’s top related sector is Sports with a sector net profit of $93.6k. In this sector, they have 388 settled trades with a win rate of 178/388 (46%). They made 174 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), their historical median investment amount is $2.0k.
The market settles based only on the 90 minutes of regular time plus stoppage time, excluding overtime or penalty shootouts; if the USA defeats Paraguay in regular time, it settles as “Yes,” otherwise “No.” If the match is postponed, the market remains open until the match is completed; if the match is cancelled with no reschedule, it settles as “No.”
This match is the USA’s opening Group D game of the 2026 World Cup, taking place on June 12 at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium, marking the USA’s home‑court debut. The other Group D teams are Australia and Turkey; the USA will face Australia on June 19 and Turkey on June 25.
The US Soccer Federation announced a 26‑player roster on May 26, featuring core players such as Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Tim Weah, Gio Reyna, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams. Official data shows Balogun, Pepi, and Haji Wright have combined for 56 club goals this season. On May 31, the USA beat FIFA‑ranked‑14 Senegal 3‑2 in a warm‑up, with Pulisic providing a goal and an assist and Balogun scoring the winner.
The most recent meeting also favored the USA. US Soccer records indicate that on November 15, 2025, the USA defeated World Cup‑qualified Paraguay 2‑1 in Chester, Pennsylvania, with goals from Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun.
Note: Based on the trader’s past behavior, this position is not a simple wager on the event occurring; the trader may close the position for profit or loss at a chosen time.
Account:
0xa974826f82380f9bb3d5b9c722c50f82fb1aef79
Total investment: $5.4k
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1 account bought “Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be unbeaten throughout the tournament?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $3.1k on “Yes” for “Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be unbeaten throughout the tournament?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.0% and the current “Yes” probability at 75.5%.
The market rules state that if the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion records no loss throughout the tournament, the outcome settles as “Yes”; otherwise it settles as “No”. “Unbeaten” does not require “all wins”; draws do not invalidate the “Yes” condition.
Among the 11 World Cup champions since 1982, only Spain in 2010 and Argentina in 2022 won the title after losing a group‑stage match; the other 9 champions did not lose any match in the tournament. For example, Brazil in 1994 and Italy in 2006 both drew in knockout matches and advanced or won on penalties, which are not recorded as losses, so they still count as “unbeaten”.
However, the new format for 2026 raises the difficulty. FIFA rules show that this World Cup expands to 48 teams, with the top two from each of the 12 groups plus the eight best third‑place teams advancing to the round of 32; the champion must play 3 group matches and 5 knockout matches, a total of 8 games, one more than the 7‑game path from 1998‑2022. The extra knockout round adds another risk of an upset, red card, injury, or pre‑penalty loss against a strong opponent.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x75285339348a61e037feafbee43b57b2f39d4e36
Total investment: $3.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $3.1k on “Yes” for “Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be unbeaten throughout the tournament?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.0% and the current “Yes” probability at 75.5%.
0x75285339 invested $3.1k, with the market’s best related sector being soccer, sector net profit $2.8k. In that sector, they have 7 settled trades with a win rate of 3/7 (43%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
The market rules state that if the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion records no loss throughout the tournament, the outcome settles as “Yes”; otherwise it settles as “No”. “Unbeaten” does not require “all wins”; draws do not invalidate the “Yes” condition.
Among the 11 World Cup champions since 1982, only Spain in 2010 and Argentina in 2022 won the title after losing a group‑stage match; the other 9 champions did not lose any match in the tournament. For example, Brazil in 1994 and Italy in 2006 both drew in knockout matches and advanced or won on penalties, which are not recorded as losses, so they still count as “unbeaten”.
However, the new format for 2026 raises the difficulty. FIFA rules show that this World Cup expands to 48 teams, with the top two from each of the 12 groups plus the eight best third‑place teams advancing to the round of 32; the champion must play 3 group matches and 5 knockout matches, a total of 8 games, one more than the 7‑game path from 1998‑2022. The extra knockout round adds another risk of an upset, red card, injury, or pre‑penalty loss against a strong opponent.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x75285339348a61e037feafbee43b57b2f39d4e36
Total investment: $3.1k
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1 new account bought “Will Claude Mythos be released by June 15?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 25 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $1.6k in “Yes” for “Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.5%, pushing the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 13.1%.
The account’s on‑chain funds came from Coinbase and, 30 minutes ago, transferred $2 to another Polymarket smart‑money account 0x6b0E.
On May 28, Anthropic announced in the Claude Opus 4.8 release that Opus 4.8 is currently the most powerful “generally available” model, but the company plans to launch a new model class that is smarter than Opus; a few institutions are already using Claude Mythos Preview via Project Glasswing for cybersecurity work, and Anthropic is accelerating related safety development, expecting to offer Mythos‑level models to all customers “in the coming weeks.”
Conversely, in the June 2 announcement expanding Project Glasswing, Anthropic still stated that the safety team has not yet built abuse‑prevention mechanisms that are strong and precise enough to support a broad release of Mythos‑level internet capabilities.
Account:
0x8d5a75f075023118a91b3593b0584a8e499f6a4e
Total investment: $1.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 25 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $1.6k in “Yes” for “Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.5%, pushing the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 13.1%.
The account’s on‑chain funds came from Coinbase and, 30 minutes ago, transferred $2 to another Polymarket smart‑money account 0x6b0E.
On May 28, Anthropic announced in the Claude Opus 4.8 release that Opus 4.8 is currently the most powerful “generally available” model, but the company plans to launch a new model class that is smarter than Opus; a few institutions are already using Claude Mythos Preview via Project Glasswing for cybersecurity work, and Anthropic is accelerating related safety development, expecting to offer Mythos‑level models to all customers “in the coming weeks.”
Conversely, in the June 2 announcement expanding Project Glasswing, Anthropic still stated that the safety team has not yet built abuse‑prevention mechanisms that are strong and precise enough to support a broad release of Mythos‑level internet capabilities.
Account:
0x8d5a75f075023118a91b3593b0584a8e499f6a4e
Total investment: $1.6k
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4 accounts bought “U.S. and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting before June 30”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts bought “U.S. and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting before June 30?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 51.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts bought “U.S. and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting before June 30?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 51.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Trump, with a sector net profit of $5.9k. It has a win rate of 5/6 (83%) across 6 settled trades in that sector, including 5 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector in this market is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $85.5k. It has a win rate of 626/1119 (56%) across 1,119 settled trades in that sector, including 233 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s best‑related sector in this market is Trump, with a sector net profit of $86.3k. It has a win rate of 410/733 (56%) across 733 settled trades in that sector, including 156 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 16.1 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost‑price range.
Account 4’s best‑related sector in this market is Iran cease‑fire, with a sector net profit of $3.3k. It has a win rate of 7/8 (88%) across 8 settled trades in that sector, including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 Smart Money Invests in "Will Keiko Fujimori Win the 2026 Peruvian Presidential Election" On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 Smart Money invested $23.3k in "Yes" for the question "Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian Presidential Election?", with an average buy-in probability of 73.5%. The current "Yes" probability is 71.5%.
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lava-lava invested $23.3k, with the most correlated category being Politics, which has a net profit of $757k. Their win rate across 977 settled trades in this category is 505/977 (52%), including 314 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. Within the historical investment price range of $0.651-$0.8, their median investment amount was $3.0k.The 2026 Peruvian presidential election is entering the final sprint before the second-round voting on June 7, with right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori facing left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez. Fujimori placed first in the first round with approximately 17.17%, while Sánchez advanced to the second round with approximately 12.03%. The latest public polls show Fujimori leading by only about 3 to 4 percentage points. On June 3, Reuters reported that Keiko Fujimori will make her fourth attempt to win the Peruvian presidency in the June 7 second-round voting, aiming to address Peru's rising homicide and extortion issues through a tough-on-crime approach, positioning herself as the candidate most capable of restoring order and stability. On June 3, El Comercio's second-round election analysis noted that while official results confirmed Sánchez's advancement to the second round, Fujimori had slightly over 17% in the first round, with Sánchez at 12.03%, a difference of 862,564 votes. Although the second round will reshuffle the dynamics, the nationwide organization, recognition, and base support from the first round still indicate that Fujimori's lead is not merely a result of polling fluctuations. Note: Based on the trader's historical transaction profile, this investment does not appear to be a bet on whether the event will actually occur, but rather shows behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at specific time points. Account: 0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a Total Investment: $23.3k
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1 smart money investor bought “Will Trump publicly insult Netanyahu before June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “Will Trump publicly insult Netanyahu before June 30, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 29.2%, and the current “Yes” probability at 20.5%.
Axios on June 1, citing two U.S. officials and one informed source, reported that Trump angrily rebuked Netanyahu in a call over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon. One U.S. official summed up Trump’s remark as “You’re fucking crazy”; another source said Trump was very angry and at one point asked Netanyahu “What the fuck are you doing?”. The report said the call occurred after Netanyahu threatened to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, and the U.S. feared that Israel’s escalation in Lebanon could undermine the cease‑fire in Lebanon and the Iran negotiations it was pursuing.
Axios also reported that a U.S.–Iran memorandum under negotiation calls for an end to the fighting in Lebanon, with Iran treating a Lebanese cease‑fire as a negotiation condition. Trump later confirmed in an interview that he did indeed use profanity toward Netanyahu and said he was “a bit annoyed” that Israel “keeps fighting Lebanon,” while emphasizing that he can still cooperate with Netanyahu.
Reuters on June 3 reported that Trump further linked the Iran issue with Israeli security in the interview, saying Israel could be the first country hit and stating “without me there is no Israel.” He also noted that he has previously publicly criticized both Israel and Iran, saying the two “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” This shows Trump portraying himself as a protector of Israeli security while publicly pressuring Netanyahu not to let the Lebanon front disrupt the current U.S.‑led Middle‑East cease‑fire and Iran negotiation rhythm.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Total investment: $3.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “Will Trump publicly insult Netanyahu before June 30, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 29.2%, and the current “Yes” probability at 20.5%.
Herodoto invested $3.4k, with the market’s best correlated sector beingCulture, sector net profit $88.2k. In that sector, across 154 settled trades, the win rate is 72/154 (47%), including 19 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.201‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $744.
Axios on June 1, citing two U.S. officials and one informed source, reported that Trump angrily rebuked Netanyahu in a call over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon. One U.S. official summed up Trump’s remark as “You’re fucking crazy”; another source said Trump was very angry and at one point asked Netanyahu “What the fuck are you doing?”. The report said the call occurred after Netanyahu threatened to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, and the U.S. feared that Israel’s escalation in Lebanon could undermine the cease‑fire in Lebanon and the Iran negotiations it was pursuing.
Axios also reported that a U.S.–Iran memorandum under negotiation calls for an end to the fighting in Lebanon, with Iran treating a Lebanese cease‑fire as a negotiation condition. Trump later confirmed in an interview that he did indeed use profanity toward Netanyahu and said he was “a bit annoyed” that Israel “keeps fighting Lebanon,” while emphasizing that he can still cooperate with Netanyahu.
Reuters on June 3 reported that Trump further linked the Iran issue with Israeli security in the interview, saying Israel could be the first country hit and stating “without me there is no Israel.” He also noted that he has previously publicly criticized both Israel and Iran, saying the two “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” This shows Trump portraying himself as a protector of Israeli security while publicly pressuring Netanyahu not to let the Lebanon front disrupt the current U.S.‑led Middle‑East cease‑fire and Iran negotiation rhythm.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Total investment: $3.4k
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1 account bought “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $6.6k in “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.0%.
The 2026 Brazilian presidential race currently shows a “Lula leading, Flávio Bolsonaro catching up” pattern: incumbent President Lula da Silva still holds a slight lead in most polls, with Datafolha’s recent potential second‑round results showing Lula at 47% and Flávio at 43%, but the gap has not widened; meanwhile, Flávio, as the core heir of the Bolsonaro camp, is trying to consolidate right‑wing votes with a hard‑line security stance, pro‑U.S. foreign policy, and an anti‑Lula platform.
In the past three days, the United States proposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and designated Brazil’s two major criminal groups CV and PCC as terrorist organizations, turning the campaign from an economic and security issue into a “national sovereignty vs. pro‑U.S. right‑wing” clash; Lula seized the moment to accuse Flávio of bringing U.S. pressure into Brazil’s domestic affairs, while Flávio framed the U.S. actions as external confirmation of Lula’s security failures.
Americas Quarterly editor Brian Winter judged that the main driver behind the U.S. labeling Brazil’s two gangs as terrorist organizations is political, aiming to “pressurize Lula and help Flávio before the October election”; this decision can strengthen Flávio’s hard‑line crime‑fighting image and highlight his criticism of Lula’s public‑security policies.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x8b3689e5ab85936e3e82aadb683f8b45703da393
Total investment: $6.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $6.6k in “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.0%.
0x8b3689e5 invested $6.6k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $3.0k. In this sector they have 7 settled trades with a win rate of 6/7 (86%), and there are 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
The 2026 Brazilian presidential race currently shows a “Lula leading, Flávio Bolsonaro catching up” pattern: incumbent President Lula da Silva still holds a slight lead in most polls, with Datafolha’s recent potential second‑round results showing Lula at 47% and Flávio at 43%, but the gap has not widened; meanwhile, Flávio, as the core heir of the Bolsonaro camp, is trying to consolidate right‑wing votes with a hard‑line security stance, pro‑U.S. foreign policy, and an anti‑Lula platform.
In the past three days, the United States proposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and designated Brazil’s two major criminal groups CV and PCC as terrorist organizations, turning the campaign from an economic and security issue into a “national sovereignty vs. pro‑U.S. right‑wing” clash; Lula seized the moment to accuse Flávio of bringing U.S. pressure into Brazil’s domestic affairs, while Flávio framed the U.S. actions as external confirmation of Lula’s security failures.
Americas Quarterly editor Brian Winter judged that the main driver behind the U.S. labeling Brazil’s two gangs as terrorist organizations is political, aiming to “pressurize Lula and help Flávio before the October election”; this decision can strengthen Flávio’s hard‑line crime‑fighting image and highlight his criticism of Lula’s public‑security policies.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x8b3689e5ab85936e3e82aadb683f8b45703da393
Total investment: $6.6k
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.4k on “Yes” for “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 80.0%.
The New York Post, citing sources, reported that Trump plans to travel to Madison Square Garden in New York before June 8 to watch Game 3 of the NBA Finals—“Knicks at home versus Spurs.” The report said MSG has already conducted security drills for a possible Trump visit. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is also expected to attend, though sources say he will not sit with Trump.
AP Today reported that the White House has not formally announced that Trump will attend the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden, but NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, when asked about a “special figure” possibly appearing at the New York venue, said that amid growing social division, sports can still bring people together. Trump previously said Knicks owner James Dolan has invited him to watch the Finals and called the Knicks’ return to the Finals “great to see.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e
Total investment: $1.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.4k on “Yes” for “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 80.0%.
0x3b4484b6 invested $1.4k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Culture, with a sector net profit of $31.1k. Across 81 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 71/81 (88%), including 22 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $398.
The New York Post, citing sources, reported that Trump plans to travel to Madison Square Garden in New York before June 8 to watch Game 3 of the NBA Finals—“Knicks at home versus Spurs.” The report said MSG has already conducted security drills for a possible Trump visit. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is also expected to attend, though sources say he will not sit with Trump.
AP Today reported that the White House has not formally announced that Trump will attend the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden, but NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, when asked about a “special figure” possibly appearing at the New York venue, said that amid growing social division, sports can still bring people together. Trump previously said Knicks owner James Dolan has invited him to watch the Finals and called the Knicks’ return to the Finals “great to see.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x3b4484b6c8cbfdaa383ba337ab3f0d71055e264e
Total investment: $1.4k
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2 Smart Money Investors Bought “Trump Orders Federal Review of AI Model Releases by June 30”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Trump Orders Federal Review of AI Model Releases by June 30?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 39.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Trump Orders Federal Review of AI Model Releases by June 30?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 39.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $36.4k. It has a win rate of 49/69 (71%) across 69 settled trades in that sector, including 20 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Technology, with a sector net profit of $18.4k. It has a win rate of 4/4 (100%) across 4 settled trades in that sector, with 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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2 accounts bought “Will the United States announce an extension of the US‑Iran cease‑fire or a new follow‑up agreement before July 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought “Will the United States announce an extension of the US‑Iran cease‑fire or a new follow‑up agreement before July 31?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 73.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought “Will the United States announce an extension of the US‑Iran cease‑fire or a new follow‑up agreement before July 31?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 73.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $706k. It has a win rate of 750/1359 (55%) across 1,359 settled trades in that sector, including 105 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector in this market is Iran cease‑fire, with a sector net profit of $4.6k. It has a win rate of 37/42 (88%) across 42 settled trades in that sector, including 6 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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【Prediction Successful】Woo Se-hun Elected Mayor of Seoul, Within 24 Hours His Winning Probability Dropped Below 1%
In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that three smart‑money participants placed $18.7k on “No” for “Will Chung Won‑oh win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 15.1%. Last night the “No” probability fell to about 0.9%, but after the vote count reversed, the market has now settled on “No”.
South Korean TV stations KBS, MBC and SBS released an exit poll on June 3 showing Democratic Party candidate Chung Won‑oh leading incumbent Seoul mayor and People Power Party candidate Woo Se‑hun 51.4% to 46.0%. In the early counting stage, Chung also maintained a lead.
However, as more votes were tallied, especially from conservative strongholds such as Gangnam, the trend reversed. Yonhap News reported that Chung held a slight lead through most of the count, but Woo first overtook him around 7:18 a.m. local time on June 4. Data from the Central Election Management Committee showed that by 9:07 a.m., with a 97.7% turnout, Woo’s vote share was 48.94% versus Chung’s 48.34%, securing a narrow re‑election.
The AP noted that the ruling Democratic Party won 12 of the 16 mayoral and provincial governor positions nationwide, but lost the crucial Seoul mayoral race. For President Lee Jae‑myung, losing Seoul weakens the ruling party’s narrative of expanding political mandate through local elections; for the conservative People Power Party, Woo’s hold on Seoul becomes a key victory amid a national defeat.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that three smart‑money participants placed $18.7k on “No” for “Will Chung Won‑oh win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 15.1%. Last night the “No” probability fell to about 0.9%, but after the vote count reversed, the market has now settled on “No”.
South Korean TV stations KBS, MBC and SBS released an exit poll on June 3 showing Democratic Party candidate Chung Won‑oh leading incumbent Seoul mayor and People Power Party candidate Woo Se‑hun 51.4% to 46.0%. In the early counting stage, Chung also maintained a lead.
However, as more votes were tallied, especially from conservative strongholds such as Gangnam, the trend reversed. Yonhap News reported that Chung held a slight lead through most of the count, but Woo first overtook him around 7:18 a.m. local time on June 4. Data from the Central Election Management Committee showed that by 9:07 a.m., with a 97.7% turnout, Woo’s vote share was 48.94% versus Chung’s 48.34%, securing a narrow re‑election.
The AP noted that the ruling Democratic Party won 12 of the 16 mayoral and provincial governor positions nationwide, but lost the crucial Seoul mayoral race. For President Lee Jae‑myung, losing Seoul weakens the ruling party’s narrative of expanding political mandate through local elections; for the conservative People Power Party, Woo’s hold on Seoul becomes a key victory amid a national defeat.
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1 account bought “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.4 trillion?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $48.7k on “Yes” for “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.4 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 36.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
On June 4, SpaceX filed an updated S‑1/A with the SEC, disclosing a plan to issue 555.6 million Class A shares at an expected price of $135, corresponding to a market cap of about $1.77 trillion.
The same day, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank will discuss the SpaceX IPO with its thousands of high‑net‑worth clients and will host a live interactive discussion on Thursday. The event will be streamed to roughly 90 JPMorgan branches, with more than 2,500 clients expected to attend.
In addition, Reuters, citing the FT, reported that Goldman Sachs’ model shown to potential investors projects SpaceX’s AI business revenue to grow from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, with total SpaceX revenue reaching $474 billion by 2030. The same article noted that Morningstar analysts value SpaceX at only about $780 billion, well below the IPO target valuation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opening a position and later taking profit or cutting loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x16c7f9b7b239c980929a2aa5d53b23c5cac03931
Total investment: $48.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $48.7k on “Yes” for “Will SpaceX IPO’s closing market cap on the first trading day exceed $2.4 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 36.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
0x16c7f9b7 invested $48.7k, with the market’s best correlated sector being Large Tech, sector net profit $17.9k. In that sector, the account has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades, including 2 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
On June 4, SpaceX filed an updated S‑1/A with the SEC, disclosing a plan to issue 555.6 million Class A shares at an expected price of $135, corresponding to a market cap of about $1.77 trillion.
The same day, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank will discuss the SpaceX IPO with its thousands of high‑net‑worth clients and will host a live interactive discussion on Thursday. The event will be streamed to roughly 90 JPMorgan branches, with more than 2,500 clients expected to attend.
In addition, Reuters, citing the FT, reported that Goldman Sachs’ model shown to potential investors projects SpaceX’s AI business revenue to grow from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, with total SpaceX revenue reaching $474 billion by 2030. The same article noted that Morningstar analysts value SpaceX at only about $780 billion, well below the IPO target valuation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opening a position and later taking profit or cutting loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x16c7f9b7b239c980929a2aa5d53b23c5cac03931
Total investment: $48.7k
---------------------------------
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1 new account bought “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $38.4k on “No” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 69.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 28.5%.
Iran has listed a cease‑fire in Lebanon as one of the conditions for any peace agreement with Washington; the United States announced on the 4th that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a cease‑fire, on the condition that Hezbollah fully halts hostilities and withdraws armed personnel from areas near the southern border of Lebanon. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on the 4th that Israel “will continue ground operations and fire strikes” and will keep destroying the region’s “terrorist infrastructure.” Israel also said it will maintain a “security zone” in southern Lebanon, including the recently captured Beaufort Castle area, and will not allow residents to return to the affected zones.
On the 4th, Reuters reported that a report submitted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to member states shows that, despite three months of U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, the IAEA’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear program has seen little change; the IAEA again asked Tehran to explain the whereabouts of its enriched uranium stockpiles, which have not been inspected since the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran’s main nuclear facilities a year ago.
The IAEA’s confidential report states that Iran still possesses 440.9 kg of enriched uranium up to 60% purity, just one step away from roughly 90% weapons‑grade level; IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that if these stocks are further weaponized, they could theoretically be used for up to 10 nuclear warheads.
Account:
0x45b5ccc1ff83462e2c30be45298f7306a3fa0c5c
Total investment: $38.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $38.4k on “No” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 69.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 28.5%.
Iran has listed a cease‑fire in Lebanon as one of the conditions for any peace agreement with Washington; the United States announced on the 4th that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a cease‑fire, on the condition that Hezbollah fully halts hostilities and withdraws armed personnel from areas near the southern border of Lebanon. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on the 4th that Israel “will continue ground operations and fire strikes” and will keep destroying the region’s “terrorist infrastructure.” Israel also said it will maintain a “security zone” in southern Lebanon, including the recently captured Beaufort Castle area, and will not allow residents to return to the affected zones.
On the 4th, Reuters reported that a report submitted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to member states shows that, despite three months of U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, the IAEA’s assessment of Iran’s nuclear program has seen little change; the IAEA again asked Tehran to explain the whereabouts of its enriched uranium stockpiles, which have not been inspected since the U.S.–Israel strike on Iran’s main nuclear facilities a year ago.
The IAEA’s confidential report states that Iran still possesses 440.9 kg of enriched uranium up to 60% purity, just one step away from roughly 90% weapons‑grade level; IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that if these stocks are further weaponized, they could theoretically be used for up to 10 nuclear warheads.
Account:
0x45b5ccc1ff83462e2c30be45298f7306a3fa0c5c
Total investment: $38.4k
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3 accounts bought “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal before July 31, 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July 31, 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
Account 1’s best related sector to this market is US‑Iran, with a sector net profit of $11.1k. It has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades in that sector, including 3 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This stake is 23.8 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost‑price range.
Account 2’s best related sector to this market is Strait of Hormuz, with a sector net profit of $82.6k. It has a win rate of 8/12 (67%) across 12 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s best related sector to this market is Oil, with a sector net profit of $3.6k. It has a win rate of 6/6 (100%) across 6 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $5.3k on “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3%; the current “Yes” probability is 22.0%.
Starting on the 5th, China lowered the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel, the second reduction since the Iran war; OilChem data show Chinese gasoline and diesel consumption fell about 16% year‑on‑year in April and continued to drop about 13% in May, markedly weaker than the 3.7% annual decline projected for 2025. JLC expects June gasoline demand to remain suppressed by high oil prices and electric‑vehicle substitution, while diesel may see a slight rebound from summer harvest activity, but alternative energy and El Niño‑related rainfall will still drag down overall diesel consumption.
Today Reuters reported that oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday, driven by Hezbollah’s rejection of a U.S.–mediated cease‑fire plan for Lebanon and the temporary shutdown of Oman’s Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion; however, even with these tailwinds, Brent rose only to $95.36 and WTI to $93.06. Even though Hormuz traffic remains constrained and U.S.–Iran peace talks are delayed, the market has not pushed prices above $100.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific point to take profit or cut losses.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $5.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $5.3k on “Crude Oil (CL) hitting $110 before July?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3%; the current “Yes” probability is 22.0%.
0xe734e7bf invested $5.3k, and the market’s top correlated sector is Oil, with a sector net profit of $211k. Across 118 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 59/118 (50%); among them, 28 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $13.5k.
Starting on the 5th, China lowered the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel, the second reduction since the Iran war; OilChem data show Chinese gasoline and diesel consumption fell about 16% year‑on‑year in April and continued to drop about 13% in May, markedly weaker than the 3.7% annual decline projected for 2025. JLC expects June gasoline demand to remain suppressed by high oil prices and electric‑vehicle substitution, while diesel may see a slight rebound from summer harvest activity, but alternative energy and El Niño‑related rainfall will still drag down overall diesel consumption.
Today Reuters reported that oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday, driven by Hezbollah’s rejection of a U.S.–mediated cease‑fire plan for Lebanon and the temporary shutdown of Oman’s Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion; however, even with these tailwinds, Brent rose only to $95.36 and WTI to $93.06. Even though Hormuz traffic remains constrained and U.S.–Iran peace talks are delayed, the market has not pushed prices above $100.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific point to take profit or cut losses.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $5.3k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money bought “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k “Yes” on “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.0%, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.5%.
The Financial Times reported on the 3rd that Starmer is pushing the final batch of “wish‑list” policies ahead of a potential power transition, including a multi‑year defense investment plan, a ban on social media for under‑16s, and a restart of UK‑EU relations; currently Downing Street is permeated with a sense of resignation, ministers and staff morale are low, and Starmer may be ousted within weeks.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said that if he wins the Makerfield by‑election on June 18 and secures the support of at least 81 Labour MPs, he will seek to join a leadership challenge against UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Keir Starmer. It should be noted that settlement in this market does not require an actual process to conclude, only that Starmer publicly announces his resignation.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at some point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k “Yes” on “Will Starmer step down before June 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 11.0%, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.5%.
0x12b8e7c1 invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $18.5k. In that sector they have 146 settled trades with a win rate of 114/146 (78%), including 14 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $1.7k.
The Financial Times reported on the 3rd that Starmer is pushing the final batch of “wish‑list” policies ahead of a potential power transition, including a multi‑year defense investment plan, a ban on social media for under‑16s, and a restart of UK‑EU relations; currently Downing Street is permeated with a sense of resignation, ministers and staff morale are low, and Starmer may be ousted within weeks.
Reuters reported on the 4th that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said that if he wins the Makerfield by‑election on June 18 and secures the support of at least 81 Labour MPs, he will seek to join a leadership challenge against UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Keir Starmer. It should be noted that settlement in this market does not require an actual process to conclude, only that Starmer publicly announces his resignation.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, the trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at some point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x12b8e7c160f3ced67a22b7eadf764cd1c2c4479c
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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🔥1
2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 31.5%.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money investors bought “Will Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia before the end of 2026?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 31.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $8.4k. It has a win rate of 9/10 (90%) across 10 settled trades in that sector, including 3 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector in this market is Ukraine, with a sector net profit of $130k. It has a win rate of 205/281 (73%) across 281 settled trades in that sector, including 116 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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1 smart money investor bought “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 53.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 45.0%.
AP reported on June 4 that the United States imposed sanctions on the Cuban president, his wife, and others. When asked whether the aim was to accelerate the collapse of the Cuban regime, Trump said the United States simply wants Cuba to become a well‑governed country and claimed Cuba has “to some extent collapsed,” adding that the U.S. will address the Cuba issue after completing actions toward Iran.
Militarily, the scope of U.S. operations expanded markedly in Trump’s second term, including actions in the Caribbean and the East Pacific against suspected drug‑smuggling vessels; Axios noted recent military buildup near Cuba, with Trump pushing for political change in Cuba but favoring a peaceful transition. CNN also reported that the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier to the region, and Secretary of State Rubio repeatedly described Cuba as a threat to the United States, while also stating that the U.S. is open to negotiation plans that could lead Cuba toward democracy, prosperity, freedom, and normalization.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 53.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 45.0%.
0x29d33707 invested $1.1k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $90.5k. Across 104 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 78/104 (75%); 41 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.451‑$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $939.
AP reported on June 4 that the United States imposed sanctions on the Cuban president, his wife, and others. When asked whether the aim was to accelerate the collapse of the Cuban regime, Trump said the United States simply wants Cuba to become a well‑governed country and claimed Cuba has “to some extent collapsed,” adding that the U.S. will address the Cuba issue after completing actions toward Iran.
Militarily, the scope of U.S. operations expanded markedly in Trump’s second term, including actions in the Caribbean and the East Pacific against suspected drug‑smuggling vessels; Axios noted recent military buildup near Cuba, with Trump pushing for political change in Cuba but favoring a peaceful transition. CNN also reported that the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier to the region, and Secretary of State Rubio repeatedly described Cuba as a threat to the United States, while also stating that the U.S. is open to negotiation plans that could lead Cuba toward democracy, prosperity, freedom, and normalization.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
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1 new account bought “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.5k in “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 28.8%.
Israel’s parliamentary election was originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, who led the IDF from 2015‑2019; after the 2023 Gaza war broke out, he joined the wartime cabinet as a member of the National Unity camp, and later left the government in 2024 with Benny Gantz’s camp. In 2025, he founded the Yashar! party, emphasizing security experience, national unity, and an anti‑Netanyahu stance.
Since the Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill 106‑0, the current timeline is setting the election window between September 8 and October 20. Direct Polls, released by i24NEWS in late May, showed both the Netanyahu camp and the opposition camp holding 60 seats each, both below the 61‑seat coalition threshold; among them, Eizenkot’s Yashar! was listed as a breakthrough party in this round, winning 17 seats and becoming the second‑largest party in the Knesset.
Account:
0xa8c985c00a37dcffd745fd393a1719de718b1425
Total investment: $2.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.5k in “Will Gadi Eizenkot become Israel’s next prime minister?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 29.3% and a current “Yes” probability of 28.8%.
Israel’s parliamentary election was originally scheduled for October 27, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot is a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, who led the IDF from 2015‑2019; after the 2023 Gaza war broke out, he joined the wartime cabinet as a member of the National Unity camp, and later left the government in 2024 with Benny Gantz’s camp. In 2025, he founded the Yashar! party, emphasizing security experience, national unity, and an anti‑Netanyahu stance.
Since the Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill 106‑0, the current timeline is setting the election window between September 8 and October 20. Direct Polls, released by i24NEWS in late May, showed both the Netanyahu camp and the opposition camp holding 60 seats each, both below the 61‑seat coalition threshold; among them, Eizenkot’s Yashar! was listed as a breakthrough party in this round, winning 17 seats and becoming the second‑largest party in the Knesset.
Account:
0xa8c985c00a37dcffd745fd393a1719de718b1425
Total investment: $2.5k
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.3k on “No” for “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.3%.
AP reported on June 3 that the House passed, by a vote of 215‑208, a resolution demanding an end to U.S. military actions against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats—marking the first time Congress has successfully passed a restrictive vote on Trump’s Iran war. The resolution requires the president to withdraw U.S. forces from hostile actions against Iran without a formal declaration of war or explicit authorization.
Because the rules require both chambers to pass the resolution, the next steps depend on the Senate’s actions. CBS reported on May 19 that the Senate had previously advanced the Iran war‑powers resolution led by Tim Kaine out of committee by a 50‑47 vote. Axios wrote on June 3 that the next procedural vote could fail once attendance returns to full strength; PolitiFact noted on June 4 that a full‑senate vote would still need 60 votes to reach final approval, meaning 10 more votes than on May 19. Additionally, each chamber currently has its own version of the resolution, and further coordination and a new vote may be required.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x06521fb68bb128840b62ea646fcb2d40682c9134
Total investment: $1.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.3k on “No” for “Will the U.S. Congress pass a resolution limiting war powers against Iran before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.7%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.3%.
0x06521fb6 invested $1.3k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $5.6k. Across 17 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 16/17 (94%); there were 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.801‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $9.3k.
AP reported on June 3 that the House passed, by a vote of 215‑208, a resolution demanding an end to U.S. military actions against Iran, with four Republican lawmakers joining Democrats—marking the first time Congress has successfully passed a restrictive vote on Trump’s Iran war. The resolution requires the president to withdraw U.S. forces from hostile actions against Iran without a formal declaration of war or explicit authorization.
Because the rules require both chambers to pass the resolution, the next steps depend on the Senate’s actions. CBS reported on May 19 that the Senate had previously advanced the Iran war‑powers resolution led by Tim Kaine out of committee by a 50‑47 vote. Axios wrote on June 3 that the next procedural vote could fail once attendance returns to full strength; PolitiFact noted on June 4 that a full‑senate vote would still need 60 votes to reach final approval, meaning 10 more votes than on May 19. Additionally, each chamber currently has its own version of the resolution, and further coordination and a new vote may be required.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x06521fb68bb128840b62ea646fcb2d40682c9134
Total investment: $1.3k
---------------------------------
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3 accounts bought “Will ___ win the 2026 NBA championship?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “___Will win the 2026 NBA championship?”.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts bought “___Will win the 2026 NBA championship?”.
Account 1’s top related sector in this market is NBA, with sector net profit of $47.7k. It has a win rate of 67/102 (66%) across 102 settled trades in that sector, including 23 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s top related sector in this market is NBA, with sector net profit of $124k. It has a win rate of 136/220 (62%) across 220 settled trades in that sector, including 85 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 3’s top related sector in this market is 2026 NBA Playoffs, with sector net profit of $1.1k. It has a win rate of 14/20 (70%) across 20 settled trades in that sector, including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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