1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
This account’s strongest related sector in this market is soccer, with sector net profit of $889k. It has a win rate of 18/40 (45%) across 40 settled trades in this sector, including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
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1 account bought “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
0xd709b9bd invested $1.8k. This trade is 18.0 times the median of its historical trades.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
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5 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $11.1k. It has a win rate of 4/5 (80%) across 5 settled trades in that sector, with 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.3k. It has a win rate of 234/394 (59%) across 394 settled trades in that sector, with 58 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $22.1k. It has a win rate of 25/27 (93%) across 27 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 4’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $61.3k. It has a win rate of 2145/3002 (71%) across 3,002 settled trades in that sector, with 478 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. This position is 24.7 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost range ($0.701‑$0.85).
Account 5’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.4k. It has a win rate of 66/81 (81%) across 81 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $157.8k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 66.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.5%.
Iran’s semi‑official Tasnim News Agency reported on the 1st that Tehran’s negotiation team halted indirect information exchanges with the United States through a mediator due to Israel’s strike on Lebanon. Iran and its allies are threatening a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and may pressure other strategic waterways such as the Strait of Mandeb to punish Israel and its supporters.
Reuters reported today that oil prices retained most of the gains from the previous session’s surge, as uncertainty remains over the status of U.S.–Iran cease‑fire talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said negotiations are ongoing, but Tasnim News Agency said Tehran has paused indirect talks with Washington; International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Dominguez noted that “announcements of the Strait of Hormuz opening followed by closures a few hours later” are now common, and the shipping industry cannot take that risk without safer arrangements.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Total investment: $157.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $157.8k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 66.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.5%.
TheSpiritofUkraine invested $158k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $123k. Across 83 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 69/83 (83%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Iran’s semi‑official Tasnim News Agency reported on the 1st that Tehran’s negotiation team halted indirect information exchanges with the United States through a mediator due to Israel’s strike on Lebanon. Iran and its allies are threatening a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and may pressure other strategic waterways such as the Strait of Mandeb to punish Israel and its supporters.
Reuters reported today that oil prices retained most of the gains from the previous session’s surge, as uncertainty remains over the status of U.S.–Iran cease‑fire talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said negotiations are ongoing, but Tasnim News Agency said Tehran has paused indirect talks with Washington; International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Dominguez noted that “announcements of the Strait of Hormuz opening followed by closures a few hours later” are now common, and the shipping industry cannot take that risk without safer arrangements.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Total investment: $157.8k
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1 smart money investor bought “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “No” for “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
On the 1st, Hezbollah said its fighters launched a salvo of missiles at Israeli military facilities in the city of Tiberias; the day before, Hezbollah claimed to have fired rockets at Israeli facilities in Nahariya. On the same day, Axios reported that the United States’ latest effort to push a Lebanon ceasefire had stalled. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had originally promoted a limited de‑escalation plan: Hezbollah would stop striking northern Israel, and Israel would stop striking Beirut; however, Israel is still considering whether to expand attacks on Hezbollah targets such as Dahiyeh.
Reuters reported on the 1st that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to strike the Hezbollah‑controlled southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, linking this order directly to Hezbollah’s continued attacks on northern Israeli cities and military targets. Netanyahu publicly stated that if Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli cities and civilians, there will be no “quiet Beirut, noisy northern Israel” scenario. The Israeli military has now asked some residents of southern Beirut to evacuate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs and may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
Total investment: $2.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “No” for “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
Huludubu invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $258k. In this sector they have 1349 settled trades with a win rate of 925/1349 (69%), including 293 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.4k.
On the 1st, Hezbollah said its fighters launched a salvo of missiles at Israeli military facilities in the city of Tiberias; the day before, Hezbollah claimed to have fired rockets at Israeli facilities in Nahariya. On the same day, Axios reported that the United States’ latest effort to push a Lebanon ceasefire had stalled. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had originally promoted a limited de‑escalation plan: Hezbollah would stop striking northern Israel, and Israel would stop striking Beirut; however, Israel is still considering whether to expand attacks on Hezbollah targets such as Dahiyeh.
Reuters reported on the 1st that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to strike the Hezbollah‑controlled southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, linking this order directly to Hezbollah’s continued attacks on northern Israeli cities and military targets. Netanyahu publicly stated that if Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli cities and civilians, there will be no “quiet Beirut, noisy northern Israel” scenario. The Israeli military has now asked some residents of southern Beirut to evacuate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs and may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
Total investment: $2.4k
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3 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 84.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 84.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is World Macro, with a sector net profit of $40.5k. It has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades in that sector, including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $340k. It has a win rate of 768/907 (85%) across 907 settled trades in that sector, including 72 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 13.0 times the median historical amount invested in the similar cost‑price range ($0.101‑$0.25).
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $111k. It has a win rate of 825/1426 (58%) across 1,426 settled trades in that sector, including 477 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.1 times the median historical amount invested in the similar cost‑price range ($0.101‑$0.25).
This full news flash has been synced to the BlockBeats Premium Member exclusive prediction‑market channel; subscribing unlocks the complete account profiles, sector profit analysis, abnormal position operations, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $8.6k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 68.7%.
As of May 27, most global brokerages have revised the 2026 U.S. policy‑easing outlook to “no further cuts”: at the start of the year the market was still pricing in two cuts, but after inflation risks rose and Fed officials grew cautious, Nomura and UBS Wealth Management became the latest institutions to push back their cut forecasts; CME FedWatch pricing also shows traders betting roughly a 37% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Fed in December.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned on May 29 that inflation is currently too hot and has been above target for too long, so it cannot be assumed that the recent round of energy‑price increases will naturally subside within an acceptable timeframe; he said now is not the time to let down guard and noted policy may need to become more restrictive.
Reuters reported that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on May 29 that the economic impact of the Middle‑East war remains hard to assess, but if energy‑supply disruptions persist into the second half of the year, inflation pressure could spread from oil prices to the broader price system; because soaring energy prices have pushed inflation higher, Fed officials have retreated from earlier rate‑cut forecasts, with some now discussing the possibility of a hike, and the market also sees a hike as more likely than a cut.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x9bcada74fbcaa331afecdf7e861fbc9532ecca1f
Total investment: $8.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $8.6k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 68.7%.
0x9bcada74 invested $8.6k, and the market’s top related sector is Macro‑economics, with sector net profit of $118k. In that sector, they have 18 settled trades with a win rate of 15/18 (83%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $5.0k.
As of May 27, most global brokerages have revised the 2026 U.S. policy‑easing outlook to “no further cuts”: at the start of the year the market was still pricing in two cuts, but after inflation risks rose and Fed officials grew cautious, Nomura and UBS Wealth Management became the latest institutions to push back their cut forecasts; CME FedWatch pricing also shows traders betting roughly a 37% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Fed in December.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned on May 29 that inflation is currently too hot and has been above target for too long, so it cannot be assumed that the recent round of energy‑price increases will naturally subside within an acceptable timeframe; he said now is not the time to let down guard and noted policy may need to become more restrictive.
Reuters reported that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on May 29 that the economic impact of the Middle‑East war remains hard to assess, but if energy‑supply disruptions persist into the second half of the year, inflation pressure could spread from oil prices to the broader price system; because soaring energy prices have pushed inflation higher, Fed officials have retreated from earlier rate‑cut forecasts, with some now discussing the possibility of a hike, and the market also sees a hike as more likely than a cut.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x9bcada74fbcaa331afecdf7e861fbc9532ecca1f
Total investment: $8.6k
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【Prediction Successful】U.S. and Iran Failed to Announce New Agreement on Schedule, Large Investor Funds Betting on No De‑escalation Stolen
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart‑money participant predicted “the United States will not announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31”, and the market has now settled.
Currently, the United States continues to signal a desire to reach an agreement—Trump says Iran still wants a deal and, after Israel escalated operations in Lebanon, urged Netanyahu to brake to avoid jeopardizing U.S.–Iran talks—while at the same time maintaining military pressure. The U.S. military said that after Iran shot down an American drone, it struck Iranian radar and drone sites and intercepted a missile Iran fired toward U.S. forces in Kuwait.
Iran, meanwhile, has folded Lebanon and Gaza into its cease‑fire framework. Foreign Minister Al‑Araghi said that damage to any front equals damage to the overall cease‑fire; Tasnim reported that Iran has paused text exchanges with the United States through a mediator and is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz and opening other fronts as pressure tactics.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart‑money participant predicted “the United States will not announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31”, and the market has now settled.
Currently, the United States continues to signal a desire to reach an agreement—Trump says Iran still wants a deal and, after Israel escalated operations in Lebanon, urged Netanyahu to brake to avoid jeopardizing U.S.–Iran talks—while at the same time maintaining military pressure. The U.S. military said that after Iran shot down an American drone, it struck Iranian radar and drone sites and intercepted a missile Iran fired toward U.S. forces in Kuwait.
Iran, meanwhile, has folded Lebanon and Gaza into its cease‑fire framework. Foreign Minister Al‑Araghi said that damage to any front equals damage to the overall cease‑fire; Tasnim reported that Iran has paused text exchanges with the United States through a mediator and is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz and opening other fronts as pressure tactics.
This smart‑money investor has also become a main storyline in the community over the past two days: AdrainCronauer has heavily weighted multiple “no de‑escalation” positions on U.S.–Iran dynamics over the past month, consistently ranking among the top large investors on the “No” side in markets such as U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and permanent peace agreements.
However, the account appears to have fallen victim to a phishing attack. The attacker liquidated its positions at market price and withdrew the proceeds, with total losses suspected to exceed $2 million. Polymarket’s Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, said the team is assisting the user and the exchange in attempting to freeze the funds.
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Update: MicroStrategy’s card‑point announcement to sell coins, Polymarket’s additional rule explanation drives market probability to zero
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel mentioned in yesterday’s news flash that an address with a 99.9% proposal win rate initiated a “No” settlement for the market “MicroStrategy will sell BTC before June”. That evening, MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC 8‑K filing that it had sold 32 BTC a few days earlier.
The release of that filing caused the “Yes” probability in the market to rise to 85%: the market rules state that if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before 5 / 31 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle as “Yes”.
However, after several smart‑money participants bought “No”, the probability gradually fell to around 50%: because the filing was made public on 6 / 1, after the market’s 5 / 31 deadline, the “No” side argued that the document does not meet the “Yes” settlement condition.
Around 1 PM ET on 6 / 1, Polymarket posted an additional note for this market stating “There was no official MSTR information, on‑chain data, or reliable reporting confirming that Strategy sold BTC within the market timeframe before the market closed,” causing the “Yes” probability to plunge, now at 0.9%.
We will continue to sync more high‑win‑rate proposal address movements, settlement disputes, and rule‑change analyses to members, including analyses of settlement/dispute proposals, initiating address profits, sector win rates, and other information.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel mentioned in yesterday’s news flash that an address with a 99.9% proposal win rate initiated a “No” settlement for the market “MicroStrategy will sell BTC before June”. That evening, MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC 8‑K filing that it had sold 32 BTC a few days earlier.
The release of that filing caused the “Yes” probability in the market to rise to 85%: the market rules state that if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before 5 / 31 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle as “Yes”.
However, after several smart‑money participants bought “No”, the probability gradually fell to around 50%: because the filing was made public on 6 / 1, after the market’s 5 / 31 deadline, the “No” side argued that the document does not meet the “Yes” settlement condition.
Around 1 PM ET on 6 / 1, Polymarket posted an additional note for this market stating “There was no official MSTR information, on‑chain data, or reliable reporting confirming that Strategy sold BTC within the market timeframe before the market closed,” causing the “Yes” probability to plunge, now at 0.9%.
We will continue to sync more high‑win‑rate proposal address movements, settlement disputes, and rule‑change analyses to members, including analyses of settlement/dispute proposals, initiating address profits, sector win rates, and other information.
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4 new accounts buy “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts bought “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 0.7%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts bought “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 0.7%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news content, keeping you ahead in tracking global news.
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1 account bought “Will Eugen Tomac become Romania’s next prime minister?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 account invested $1000 in “Will Eugen Tomac be the next prime minister of Romania?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 76.4%, raising the “Yes” probability from 41.2% to 76.4%.
Eugen Tomac is the leader of Romania’s PMP party, a Member of the European Parliament, and an honorary advisor to President Nicușor Dan. Romania’s political crisis began on May 5, when the Ilie Bolojan government was overturned by a vote of no confidence from PSD and AUR, with 281 MPs voting against it. Bolojan then remained as caretaker prime minister until a new government secured a parliamentary confidence vote.
Digi24 reported on June 1 that Nicușor Dan could announce a prime‑ministerial nomination this week, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday, with Tomac still the presidential office’s preferred option; several local media also said the president wants to find a candidate outside the existing parliamentary big parties to bypass the deadlock within the former ruling coalition.
But Tomac’s risks are also clear: PMP does not have seats in the Romanian parliament, and if he is nominated he would need to present a cabinet list and policy program within 10 days and secure at least 233 confidence votes. UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor publicly criticized the Tomac plan on June 2, calling a “technocratic government formed by a political figure whose party is not in parliament” unfeasible and saying he sees no reason for UDMR to support a Tomac government. Ziare reported the same day that the president was originally expected to announce the nomination on June 2, but postponed again because a clear parliamentary majority had not yet formed.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x8f4e01a4aa296262e09b41447ef61f0cf964f455
Total investment: $1000
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 account invested $1000 in “Will Eugen Tomac be the next prime minister of Romania?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 76.4%, raising the “Yes” probability from 41.2% to 76.4%.
0x8f4e01a4 invested $1000, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $2.7k. In this sector, they have 18 settled trades with a win rate of 10/18 (56%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $856.
Eugen Tomac is the leader of Romania’s PMP party, a Member of the European Parliament, and an honorary advisor to President Nicușor Dan. Romania’s political crisis began on May 5, when the Ilie Bolojan government was overturned by a vote of no confidence from PSD and AUR, with 281 MPs voting against it. Bolojan then remained as caretaker prime minister until a new government secured a parliamentary confidence vote.
Digi24 reported on June 1 that Nicușor Dan could announce a prime‑ministerial nomination this week, possibly on Tuesday or Wednesday, with Tomac still the presidential office’s preferred option; several local media also said the president wants to find a candidate outside the existing parliamentary big parties to bypass the deadlock within the former ruling coalition.
But Tomac’s risks are also clear: PMP does not have seats in the Romanian parliament, and if he is nominated he would need to present a cabinet list and policy program within 10 days and secure at least 233 confidence votes. UDMR leader Kelemen Hunor publicly criticized the Tomac plan on June 2, calling a “technocratic government formed by a political figure whose party is not in parliament” unfeasible and saying he sees no reason for UDMR to support a Tomac government. Ziare reported the same day that the president was originally expected to announce the nomination on June 2, but postponed again because a clear parliamentary majority had not yet formed.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x8f4e01a4aa296262e09b41447ef61f0cf964f455
Total investment: $1000
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3 Smart Money Investors Bought “Whether the U.S. and Iran Reach a Permanent Peace Deal by June 15”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Whether the U.S. and Iran Reach a Permanent Peace Deal by June 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Whether the U.S. and Iran Reach a Permanent Peace Deal by June 15?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 13.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector in this market is Iran, with a sector net profit of $180k. It has a win rate of 26/32 (81%) across 32 settled trades in that sector, including 4 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector in this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $1.4M. It has a win rate of 573/866 (66%) across 866 settled trades in that sector, including 187 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. This investment is 25.9 times the median historical amount invested within its nearby cost range ($0.051‑$0.2).
Account 3’s best‑related sector in this market is Iran, with a sector net profit of $217k. It has a win rate of 60/92 (65%) across 92 settled trades in that sector, including 26 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
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1 new account bought “Will the U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before July?” via the Railgun privacy protocol
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account purchased “Will the U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before July?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
The account’s funds were first injected into a brand‑new EVM wallet through the Railgun privacy protocol, then transferred to Polymarket. For funds moved via Railgun, external observers typically can only see one address depositing into the Railgun contract and another address withdrawing from the contract, making it difficult to directly prove that both ends belong to the same entity, and they cannot see the balances, counterparties, or exact paths inside the privacy pool.
Railgun does have legitimate privacy uses, but it has also appeared in high‑risk fund flows: the FBI reported in 2023 that the North Korean Lazarus/APT38 hacking group used Railgun to launder over $60 million worth of ETH stolen in the Harmony Horizon Bridge hack.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account purchased “Will the U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before July?”, currently the “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
The account’s funds were first injected into a brand‑new EVM wallet through the Railgun privacy protocol, then transferred to Polymarket. For funds moved via Railgun, external observers typically can only see one address depositing into the Railgun contract and another address withdrawing from the contract, making it difficult to directly prove that both ends belong to the same entity, and they cannot see the balances, counterparties, or exact paths inside the privacy pool.
Railgun does have legitimate privacy uses, but it has also appeared in high‑risk fund flows: the FBI reported in 2023 that the North Korean Lazarus/APT38 hacking group used Railgun to launder over $60 million worth of ETH stolen in the Harmony Horizon Bridge hack.
Subscribe to a BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting activity, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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1 smart money investor bought into「Predict.fun whether FDV would exceed $200 million one day after launch」
On Polymarket Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $8.6k into「Will Predict.fun's FDV exceed $200 million one day after launch?」at an average buying probability of 77.3%, with the current「yes」probability at 81.0%.
Predict.fun project announced on April 2 that it had secured strategic investments from YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto, with terms undisclosed. YZi Labs also stated that following its EASY Residency Season 2 graduation, the project had facilitated over 4 million orders, totaling transaction volume exceeding $1.8 billion, with 130,000 users and over $20 million in assets generating yields.
Binance Academy's April 17 update showed that Binance Wallet integrated prediction market functionality via third-party protocol Predict.fun into the Binance App, enabling users to access prediction markets on BNB Smart Chain directly within the app. Binance Wallet sponsored transaction and settlement gas, and allowed users to transfer funds from their spot or funding accounts to Prediction Account.
Polymarket's micro-strategy in the sell market faced settlement disputes after the SEC 8-K filing and deadline, prompting Predict.fun to rapidly launch markets around「whether Polymarket would refund users」in recent days.
Note: Based on trading patterns, this investor does not appear to be speculating on event outcomes; instead, they likely took profits or cut losses at specific time points.
Address:
0x0cb16fa435fc6dd7c21766e12251e17d6da1dea6
Total invested: $8.6k
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On Polymarket Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $8.6k into「Will Predict.fun's FDV exceed $200 million one day after launch?」at an average buying probability of 77.3%, with the current「yes」probability at 81.0%.
0x0cb16fa435fc6dd7c21766e12251e17d6da1dea6 invested $8.6k, aligning with the crypto sector—the top-performing segment—which generated net profits of $31.7k. This investor achieved a 5/7 (71%) win rate across 7 settled trades in this sector, including 1 trade where the entry price was below $0.8 and exit price exceeded $0.95.
Predict.fun project announced on April 2 that it had secured strategic investments from YZi Labs and Susquehanna Crypto, with terms undisclosed. YZi Labs also stated that following its EASY Residency Season 2 graduation, the project had facilitated over 4 million orders, totaling transaction volume exceeding $1.8 billion, with 130,000 users and over $20 million in assets generating yields.
Binance Academy's April 17 update showed that Binance Wallet integrated prediction market functionality via third-party protocol Predict.fun into the Binance App, enabling users to access prediction markets on BNB Smart Chain directly within the app. Binance Wallet sponsored transaction and settlement gas, and allowed users to transfer funds from their spot or funding accounts to Prediction Account.
Polymarket's micro-strategy in the sell market faced settlement disputes after the SEC 8-K filing and deadline, prompting Predict.fun to rapidly launch markets around「whether Polymarket would refund users」in recent days.
Note: Based on trading patterns, this investor does not appear to be speculating on event outcomes; instead, they likely took profits or cut losses at specific time points.
Address:
0x0cb16fa435fc6dd7c21766e12251e17d6da1dea6
Total invested: $8.6k
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1 smart money invested in "Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2.4 trillion on its first trading day"
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2.4 trillion on its first trading day?", with the current "Yes" probability at 43.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2.4 trillion on its first trading day?", with the current "Yes" probability at 43.5%.
Account 1's best correlated sector with this market is Technology, with a net profit of $7.1k in the sector. It has a win rate of 21/22 (95%) in 22 settled transactions in this sector, including 11 transactions where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
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1 Smart Money Invests in "Will the No to Ten Million Switzerland Initiative Be Approved in Switzerland's June 14, 2026 Popular Vote"
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $26.1k in "No" on "Will the No to Ten Million Switzerland Initiative Be Approved in Switzerland's June 14, 2026 Popular Vote?", with an average entry probability of 58.8%, and the current "Yes" probability is 33.5%.
Switzerland will hold a national vote on June 14, with one of the most closely watched issues being the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative promoted by the right-wing Swiss People's Party. The initiative proposes to cap the permanent resident population at 10 million, arguing that population growth is intensifying pressure on housing, transportation, infrastructure, environment, and social welfare.
According to the initiative's content, if Switzerland's population exceeds 9.5 million before 2050, the federal government and parliament must take measures to control population growth, particularly by restricting asylum, family reunification, and immigration inflows; if the population surpasses 10 million, Switzerland may also be required to terminate the EU's freedom of movement agreement. This means the vote is not just about population policy, but could also affect Switzerland's long-term relationship with the EU.
A YouGov Switzerland survey released on May 28 showed that 51% of eligible voters oppose the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative, 43% support it, and 6% are undecided; the survey interviewed 2,518 people between May 18-26, and while the results are within the margin of error, the opposition increased by 5 percentage points and support decreased by 2 percentage points compared to early May.
The official voting instructions state that ordinary initiatives only need more yes votes than no votes nationwide to pass, but constitutional amendments also require majority approval from cantons; the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative is a citizens' initiative to amend the federal constitution, meaning it must win not only a majority of national voters but also a majority of cantons, making it more difficult for an initiative that is only strong in some German-speaking areas or immigration-anxiety regions to cross the finish line.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event will actually occur, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c
Total Investment: $26.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $26.1k in "No" on "Will the No to Ten Million Switzerland Initiative Be Approved in Switzerland's June 14, 2026 Popular Vote?", with an average entry probability of 58.8%, and the current "Yes" probability is 33.5%.
donaldinhotrumpito invested $26.1k, with the most correlated market segment being Politics, and the segment's net profit is $57.4k. In this segment, they have a win rate of 358/515 (70%) across 515 settled trades, with 79 trades where entry price was below $0.8 and exit price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), their historical investment median amount is $6.2k.
Switzerland will hold a national vote on June 14, with one of the most closely watched issues being the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative promoted by the right-wing Swiss People's Party. The initiative proposes to cap the permanent resident population at 10 million, arguing that population growth is intensifying pressure on housing, transportation, infrastructure, environment, and social welfare.
According to the initiative's content, if Switzerland's population exceeds 9.5 million before 2050, the federal government and parliament must take measures to control population growth, particularly by restricting asylum, family reunification, and immigration inflows; if the population surpasses 10 million, Switzerland may also be required to terminate the EU's freedom of movement agreement. This means the vote is not just about population policy, but could also affect Switzerland's long-term relationship with the EU.
A YouGov Switzerland survey released on May 28 showed that 51% of eligible voters oppose the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative, 43% support it, and 6% are undecided; the survey interviewed 2,518 people between May 18-26, and while the results are within the margin of error, the opposition increased by 5 percentage points and support decreased by 2 percentage points compared to early May.
The official voting instructions state that ordinary initiatives only need more yes votes than no votes nationwide to pass, but constitutional amendments also require majority approval from cantons; the "No to Ten Million Switzerland" initiative is a citizens' initiative to amend the federal constitution, meaning it must win not only a majority of national voters but also a majority of cantons, making it more difficult for an initiative that is only strong in some German-speaking areas or immigration-anxiety regions to cross the finish line.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event will actually occur, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x7523cafcee7bcf2db9a79d80e0d79b88a9a54c4c
Total Investment: $26.1k
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1 Smart Money Invests in "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel Step Down Before December 31?"
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $1.8k in "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel Step Down Before December 31?" with a "No" position, averaging a 44.4% buy-in probability. The current "Yes" probability stands at 53.5%.
Miguel Díaz-Canel, also known as Miguel Díaz-Canel, is Cuba's current state president and First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party. His term is theoretically extended to 2028.
The market background highlights Cuba's compounded challenges due to energy shortages, water scarcity, and U.S. pressure. AP reported on May 28 that Cuban officials stated over 3 million Cubans face daily water shortages due to severe oil shortages. Previously, Cuba's energy minister admitted the power grid is in a "critical" state, with fuel and diesel nearly depleted, leading to over 20 hours of daily blackouts in cities like Havana. CiberCuba reported that Díaz-Canel acknowledged the power crisis is "particularly tense," blaming it on the U.S. energy blockade.
U.S. pressure is intensifying. Axios reported on May 28 that the Trump administration is gradually tightening energy and economic sanctions on Cuba to buy time for potential policy shifts after addressing the Iran issue. Le Monde noted in May that the Trump administration is escalating pressure for a "regime change" in Cuba; Díaz-Canel warned that such external attempts could lead to "unquantifiable bloodshed." During a April interview with NBC, he was asked if he would step down to save the country, responding, "Stepping down is not in our vocabulary."
Note: Based on the trader's historical pattern, this trade does not appear to be a direct bet on whether the event occurs, but rather involves opening positions and taking profits or cutting losses at specific points.
Account:
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $1.8k in "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel Step Down Before December 31?" with a "No" position, averaging a 44.4% buy-in probability. The current "Yes" probability stands at 53.5%.
paddaa invested $1.8k, which is part of the Geopolitics sector with a net profit of $85.5k. Across 1,119 settled transactions in this sector, their win rate is 626/1,119 (56%). Among these, 233 trades were bought at prices below $0.8 and sold at prices above $0.95. The median investment amount in the price range ($0.351-$0.5) was $601.
Miguel Díaz-Canel, also known as Miguel Díaz-Canel, is Cuba's current state president and First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party. His term is theoretically extended to 2028.
The market background highlights Cuba's compounded challenges due to energy shortages, water scarcity, and U.S. pressure. AP reported on May 28 that Cuban officials stated over 3 million Cubans face daily water shortages due to severe oil shortages. Previously, Cuba's energy minister admitted the power grid is in a "critical" state, with fuel and diesel nearly depleted, leading to over 20 hours of daily blackouts in cities like Havana. CiberCuba reported that Díaz-Canel acknowledged the power crisis is "particularly tense," blaming it on the U.S. energy blockade.
U.S. pressure is intensifying. Axios reported on May 28 that the Trump administration is gradually tightening energy and economic sanctions on Cuba to buy time for potential policy shifts after addressing the Iran issue. Le Monde noted in May that the Trump administration is escalating pressure for a "regime change" in Cuba; Díaz-Canel warned that such external attempts could lead to "unquantifiable bloodshed." During a April interview with NBC, he was asked if he would step down to save the country, responding, "Stepping down is not in our vocabulary."
Note: Based on the trader's historical pattern, this trade does not appear to be a direct bet on whether the event occurs, but rather involves opening positions and taking profits or cutting losses at specific points.
Account:
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2 accounts bought "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?"
On prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?", with "yes" probability at 69.5%.
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On prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts bought "Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?", with "yes" probability at 69.5%.
Account1's best-related market in this platform isU.S. elections, with a net profit of $282k. Its 68/111 (61%) win rate in 111 settled trades within this market includes 48 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95.
Account2's best-related market in this platform ispolitics, with a net profit of $4.0k. Its 5/5 (100%) win rate in 5 settled trades within this market includes 1 trade where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95.
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5 Smart Money Investors Buy 'Iran Agrees to Halt Uranium Enrichment by June 30'
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors bought into 'Iran Agrees to Halt Uranium Enrichment by June 30?', with the 'Yes' probability currently at 22.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the complete prediction market news content, unlock full account profiles, anomalous fund allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news—enabling you to stay ahead of global developments in real time.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors bought into 'Iran Agrees to Halt Uranium Enrichment by June 30?', with the 'Yes' probability currently at 22.5%.
Account 1's most relevant sector is Iran Ceasefire, with a net profit of $53.7k. It has executed 27 settled trades in this sector at a 26/27 win rate (96%), including 12 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price exceeded $0.95.
Account 2's most relevant sector is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $239k. It has executed 644 settled trades in this sector at a 455/644 win rate (71%), including 270 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price exceeded $0.95.
Account 3's most relevant sector is Politics, with a net profit of $19.8k. It has executed 13 settled trades in this sector at a 12/13 win rate (92%), including 1 trade where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price exceeded $0.95.
Account 4's most relevant sector is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $6.7k. It has executed 8 settled trades in this sector at a 7/8 win rate (88%), including 1 trade where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price exceeded $0.95.
Account 5's most relevant sector is Iran, with a net profit of $9.9k. It has executed 73 settled trades in this sector at a 60/73 win rate (82%), including 10 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price exceeded $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the complete prediction market news content, unlock full account profiles, anomalous fund allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news—enabling you to stay ahead of global developments in real time.
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1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $22.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?”, with an average purchase probability of 46.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 46.5%.
On the 2nd, Reuters reported that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer publicly backed Maine Democratic candidate Graham Platner, who is expected to win the June 9 primary and challenge veteran Republican Senator Susan Collins; this race is seen as a must‑win for Democrats to reclaim Senate control in November, while Republicans currently hold the Senate 53‑47.
The “Race to the White House” 2026 Senate forecast model notes that although Democrats face a tough task, midterms usually give the White House’s opposition a national tailwind; the Democrats’ best offensive opportunities are Maine and North Carolina, while Ohio (with Sherrod Brown returning to challenge incumbent Jon Husted) and Alaska (with Mary Peltola running) also fall within the Democratic competitive range. If Democrats hold defensive seats in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, etc., and capture these four Republican seats, they can secure the chamber.
As of today, the Senate baseline remains 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic/ally seats; 35 Senate seats are up for election in 2026, including special elections in Florida and Ohio, with 23 defended by Republicans. Because Vice President Harris would break a 50‑50 tie in favor of Democrats, the Democrats need more than just a tie—they must net a gain of 4 seats to reach 51‑49 to truly control the Senate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Total investment: $22.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $22.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?”, with an average purchase probability of 46.0%; the current “Yes” probability is 46.5%.
wan123 invested $22.1k, with the market’s top related sector being World Elections, which has a net profit of $57.4k. In that sector, they have 7 settled trades with a win rate of 5/7 (71%), including 2 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
On the 2nd, Reuters reported that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer publicly backed Maine Democratic candidate Graham Platner, who is expected to win the June 9 primary and challenge veteran Republican Senator Susan Collins; this race is seen as a must‑win for Democrats to reclaim Senate control in November, while Republicans currently hold the Senate 53‑47.
The “Race to the White House” 2026 Senate forecast model notes that although Democrats face a tough task, midterms usually give the White House’s opposition a national tailwind; the Democrats’ best offensive opportunities are Maine and North Carolina, while Ohio (with Sherrod Brown returning to challenge incumbent Jon Husted) and Alaska (with Mary Peltola running) also fall within the Democratic competitive range. If Democrats hold defensive seats in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, etc., and capture these four Republican seats, they can secure the chamber.
As of today, the Senate baseline remains 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic/ally seats; 35 Senate seats are up for election in 2026, including special elections in Florida and Ohio, with 23 defended by Republicans. Because Vice President Harris would break a 50‑50 tie in favor of Democrats, the Democrats need more than just a tie—they must net a gain of 4 seats to reach 51‑49 to truly control the Senate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Total investment: $22.1k
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1 account bought “Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $2.1k in “Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 8.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 8.3%.
Public information currently shows Brazil placed in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland. In the schedule, Brazil will face Morocco on June 13 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, Haiti on June 19 in Philadelphia, and Scotland on June 24 in Miami.
Regarding the roster, Ancelotti announced a 26‑man squad on May 18, with Neymar’s return being the biggest highlight. Reuters reported on May 30 that Neymar was diagnosed with a Grade‑2 calf injury; Ancelotti still said he would not substitute him and hopes he can be ready for the opening match against Morocco, or at least return for the second match against Haiti. FIFA previously stated that Rodrygo’s right‑knee anterior cruciate ligament injury essentially rules him out of this World Cup.
Goldman Sachs released a World Cup model on May 29 that used 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, giving Brazil a 7.6% chance of winning the tournament—lower than Spain (25.7%), France (18.9%) and Argentina (14.3%), but higher than England, the Netherlands, Portugal and Germany. The same model estimates Brazil’s probability of reaching the final 32 at 96.1%, the round of 16 at 66.9%, and the semifinals at 28.4%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xaab29ce85ffe220ef9e8c9167ffa466ff5fba999
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account invested $2.1k in “Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 8.4%; the current “Yes” probability is 8.3%.
0xaab29ce8 invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Sports, sector net profit $8.6k. In that sector, they have 102 settled trades with a win rate of 64/102 (63%), including 50 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $57, and this investment is 36.5 times that median.
Public information currently shows Brazil placed in Group C with Morocco, Haiti and Scotland. In the schedule, Brazil will face Morocco on June 13 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, Haiti on June 19 in Philadelphia, and Scotland on June 24 in Miami.
Regarding the roster, Ancelotti announced a 26‑man squad on May 18, with Neymar’s return being the biggest highlight. Reuters reported on May 30 that Neymar was diagnosed with a Grade‑2 calf injury; Ancelotti still said he would not substitute him and hopes he can be ready for the opening match against Morocco, or at least return for the second match against Haiti. FIFA previously stated that Rodrygo’s right‑knee anterior cruciate ligament injury essentially rules him out of this World Cup.
Goldman Sachs released a World Cup model on May 29 that used 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, giving Brazil a 7.6% chance of winning the tournament—lower than Spain (25.7%), France (18.9%) and Argentina (14.3%), but higher than England, the Netherlands, Portugal and Germany. The same model estimates Brazil’s probability of reaching the final 32 at 96.1%, the round of 16 at 66.9%, and the semifinals at 28.4%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xaab29ce85ffe220ef9e8c9167ffa466ff5fba999
Total investment: $2.1k
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