1 new account bought “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 50 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $6.9k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8%, raising the “Yes” probability from 21.0% to 28.8%.
To date, Anthropic has not announced a release date for Claude 5. Its most recent official model release was Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, which the company described as an upgrade to Opus 4.7, improving coding, agent tasks, and professional‑knowledge performance, and it was made available the same day.
In April, Anthropic also released the Claude Mythos Preview, calling it one of the “most powerful” frontier models, used by a few partners in Project Glasswing for defensive cybersecurity work; however, the company noted that Mythos Preview is a gated research preview and is not planned for broad public release.
Account:
0x55f6860516a9a4767c851f973b1ad3965e391591
Total investment: $6.9k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 50 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $6.9k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8%, raising the “Yes” probability from 21.0% to 28.8%.
To date, Anthropic has not announced a release date for Claude 5. Its most recent official model release was Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, which the company described as an upgrade to Opus 4.7, improving coding, agent tasks, and professional‑knowledge performance, and it was made available the same day.
In April, Anthropic also released the Claude Mythos Preview, calling it one of the “most powerful” frontier models, used by a few partners in Project Glasswing for defensive cybersecurity work; however, the company noted that Mythos Preview is a gated research preview and is not planned for broad public release.
Anthropic’s mainstream flagship model release timeline over the past two years:
March 14 2023: Claude first released.
July 11 2023: Claude 2 released, public beta and API.
March 4 2024: Claude 3 family released, including Haiku, Sonnet, Opus.
May 22 2025: Claude 4 released, including Claude Opus 4 and Claude Sonnet 4.
Account:
0x55f6860516a9a4767c851f973b1ad3965e391591
Total investment: $6.9k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
This account’s strongest related sector in this market is soccer, with sector net profit of $889k. It has a win rate of 18/40 (45%) across 40 settled trades in this sector, including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 account bought “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
0xd709b9bd invested $1.8k. This trade is 18.0 times the median of its historical trades.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, keeping you ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $11.1k. It has a win rate of 4/5 (80%) across 5 settled trades in that sector, with 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.3k. It has a win rate of 234/394 (59%) across 394 settled trades in that sector, with 58 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $22.1k. It has a win rate of 25/27 (93%) across 27 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 4’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $61.3k. It has a win rate of 2145/3002 (71%) across 3,002 settled trades in that sector, with 478 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. This position is 24.7 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost range ($0.701‑$0.85).
Account 5’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.4k. It has a win rate of 66/81 (81%) across 81 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, keeping you ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $157.8k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 66.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.5%.
Iran’s semi‑official Tasnim News Agency reported on the 1st that Tehran’s negotiation team halted indirect information exchanges with the United States through a mediator due to Israel’s strike on Lebanon. Iran and its allies are threatening a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and may pressure other strategic waterways such as the Strait of Mandeb to punish Israel and its supporters.
Reuters reported today that oil prices retained most of the gains from the previous session’s surge, as uncertainty remains over the status of U.S.–Iran cease‑fire talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said negotiations are ongoing, but Tasnim News Agency said Tehran has paused indirect talks with Washington; International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Dominguez noted that “announcements of the Strait of Hormuz opening followed by closures a few hours later” are now common, and the shipping industry cannot take that risk without safer arrangements.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Total investment: $157.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $157.8k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 66.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 21.5%.
TheSpiritofUkraine invested $158k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $123k. Across 83 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 69/83 (83%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Iran’s semi‑official Tasnim News Agency reported on the 1st that Tehran’s negotiation team halted indirect information exchanges with the United States through a mediator due to Israel’s strike on Lebanon. Iran and its allies are threatening a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and may pressure other strategic waterways such as the Strait of Mandeb to punish Israel and its supporters.
Reuters reported today that oil prices retained most of the gains from the previous session’s surge, as uncertainty remains over the status of U.S.–Iran cease‑fire talks and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said negotiations are ongoing, but Tasnim News Agency said Tehran has paused indirect talks with Washington; International Maritime Organization Secretary‑General Dominguez noted that “announcements of the Strait of Hormuz opening followed by closures a few hours later” are now common, and the shipping industry cannot take that risk without safer arrangements.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Total investment: $157.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor bought “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “No” for “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
On the 1st, Hezbollah said its fighters launched a salvo of missiles at Israeli military facilities in the city of Tiberias; the day before, Hezbollah claimed to have fired rockets at Israeli facilities in Nahariya. On the same day, Axios reported that the United States’ latest effort to push a Lebanon ceasefire had stalled. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had originally promoted a limited de‑escalation plan: Hezbollah would stop striking northern Israel, and Israel would stop striking Beirut; however, Israel is still considering whether to expand attacks on Hezbollah targets such as Dahiyeh.
Reuters reported on the 1st that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to strike the Hezbollah‑controlled southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, linking this order directly to Hezbollah’s continued attacks on northern Israeli cities and military targets. Netanyahu publicly stated that if Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli cities and civilians, there will be no “quiet Beirut, noisy northern Israel” scenario. The Israeli military has now asked some residents of southern Beirut to evacuate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs and may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
Total investment: $2.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $2.4k on “No” for “Will Israel announce a Lebanon ceasefire extension before June 7?”, with an average purchase probability of 78.5%. The current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
Huludubu invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $258k. In this sector they have 1349 settled trades with a win rate of 925/1349 (69%), including 293 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.4k.
On the 1st, Hezbollah said its fighters launched a salvo of missiles at Israeli military facilities in the city of Tiberias; the day before, Hezbollah claimed to have fired rockets at Israeli facilities in Nahariya. On the same day, Axios reported that the United States’ latest effort to push a Lebanon ceasefire had stalled. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had originally promoted a limited de‑escalation plan: Hezbollah would stop striking northern Israel, and Israel would stop striking Beirut; however, Israel is still considering whether to expand attacks on Hezbollah targets such as Dahiyeh.
Reuters reported on the 1st that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to strike the Hezbollah‑controlled southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, linking this order directly to Hezbollah’s continued attacks on northern Israeli cities and military targets. Netanyahu publicly stated that if Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli cities and civilians, there will be no “quiet Beirut, noisy northern Israel” scenario. The Israeli military has now asked some residents of southern Beirut to evacuate.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs and may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
Total investment: $2.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 84.5%.
This full news flash has been synced to the BlockBeats Premium Member exclusive prediction‑market channel; subscribing unlocks the complete account profiles, sector profit analysis, abnormal position operations, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content.
To join the premium channel, contact @PolyBeatsVip_Bot and pay to become a member; after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors bought “Will Chung Won‑oh Win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 84.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is World Macro, with a sector net profit of $40.5k. It has a win rate of 7/9 (78%) across 9 settled trades in that sector, including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $340k. It has a win rate of 768/907 (85%) across 907 settled trades in that sector, including 72 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 13.0 times the median historical amount invested in the similar cost‑price range ($0.101‑$0.25).
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with a sector net profit of $111k. It has a win rate of 825/1426 (58%) across 1,426 settled trades in that sector, including 477 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. This investment is 11.1 times the median historical amount invested in the similar cost‑price range ($0.101‑$0.25).
This full news flash has been synced to the BlockBeats Premium Member exclusive prediction‑market channel; subscribing unlocks the complete account profiles, sector profit analysis, abnormal position operations, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content.
To join the premium channel, contact @PolyBeatsVip_Bot and pay to become a member; after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $8.6k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 68.7%.
As of May 27, most global brokerages have revised the 2026 U.S. policy‑easing outlook to “no further cuts”: at the start of the year the market was still pricing in two cuts, but after inflation risks rose and Fed officials grew cautious, Nomura and UBS Wealth Management became the latest institutions to push back their cut forecasts; CME FedWatch pricing also shows traders betting roughly a 37% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Fed in December.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned on May 29 that inflation is currently too hot and has been above target for too long, so it cannot be assumed that the recent round of energy‑price increases will naturally subside within an acceptable timeframe; he said now is not the time to let down guard and noted policy may need to become more restrictive.
Reuters reported that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on May 29 that the economic impact of the Middle‑East war remains hard to assess, but if energy‑supply disruptions persist into the second half of the year, inflation pressure could spread from oil prices to the broader price system; because soaring energy prices have pushed inflation higher, Fed officials have retreated from earlier rate‑cut forecasts, with some now discussing the possibility of a hike, and the market also sees a hike as more likely than a cut.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x9bcada74fbcaa331afecdf7e861fbc9532ecca1f
Total investment: $8.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor put $8.6k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed not cut rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 68.7%.
0x9bcada74 invested $8.6k, and the market’s top related sector is Macro‑economics, with sector net profit of $118k. In that sector, they have 18 settled trades with a win rate of 15/18 (83%), including 2 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $5.0k.
As of May 27, most global brokerages have revised the 2026 U.S. policy‑easing outlook to “no further cuts”: at the start of the year the market was still pricing in two cuts, but after inflation risks rose and Fed officials grew cautious, Nomura and UBS Wealth Management became the latest institutions to push back their cut forecasts; CME FedWatch pricing also shows traders betting roughly a 37% chance of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Fed in December.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned on May 29 that inflation is currently too hot and has been above target for too long, so it cannot be assumed that the recent round of energy‑price increases will naturally subside within an acceptable timeframe; he said now is not the time to let down guard and noted policy may need to become more restrictive.
Reuters reported that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on May 29 that the economic impact of the Middle‑East war remains hard to assess, but if energy‑supply disruptions persist into the second half of the year, inflation pressure could spread from oil prices to the broader price system; because soaring energy prices have pushed inflation higher, Fed officials have retreated from earlier rate‑cut forecasts, with some now discussing the possibility of a hike, and the market also sees a hike as more likely than a cut.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x9bcada74fbcaa331afecdf7e861fbc9532ecca1f
Total investment: $8.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
【Prediction Successful】U.S. and Iran Failed to Announce New Agreement on Schedule, Large Investor Funds Betting on No De‑escalation Stolen
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart‑money participant predicted “the United States will not announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31”, and the market has now settled.
Currently, the United States continues to signal a desire to reach an agreement—Trump says Iran still wants a deal and, after Israel escalated operations in Lebanon, urged Netanyahu to brake to avoid jeopardizing U.S.–Iran talks—while at the same time maintaining military pressure. The U.S. military said that after Iran shot down an American drone, it struck Iranian radar and drone sites and intercepted a missile Iran fired toward U.S. forces in Kuwait.
Iran, meanwhile, has folded Lebanon and Gaza into its cease‑fire framework. Foreign Minister Al‑Araghi said that damage to any front equals damage to the overall cease‑fire; Tasnim reported that Iran has paused text exchanges with the United States through a mediator and is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz and opening other fronts as pressure tactics.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart‑money participant predicted “the United States will not announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31”, and the market has now settled.
Currently, the United States continues to signal a desire to reach an agreement—Trump says Iran still wants a deal and, after Israel escalated operations in Lebanon, urged Netanyahu to brake to avoid jeopardizing U.S.–Iran talks—while at the same time maintaining military pressure. The U.S. military said that after Iran shot down an American drone, it struck Iranian radar and drone sites and intercepted a missile Iran fired toward U.S. forces in Kuwait.
Iran, meanwhile, has folded Lebanon and Gaza into its cease‑fire framework. Foreign Minister Al‑Araghi said that damage to any front equals damage to the overall cease‑fire; Tasnim reported that Iran has paused text exchanges with the United States through a mediator and is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz and opening other fronts as pressure tactics.
This smart‑money investor has also become a main storyline in the community over the past two days: AdrainCronauer has heavily weighted multiple “no de‑escalation” positions on U.S.–Iran dynamics over the past month, consistently ranking among the top large investors on the “No” side in markets such as U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and permanent peace agreements.
However, the account appears to have fallen victim to a phishing attack. The attacker liquidated its positions at market price and withdrew the proceeds, with total losses suspected to exceed $2 million. Polymarket’s Vice President of Engineering, Josh Stevens, said the team is assisting the user and the exchange in attempting to freeze the funds.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Update: MicroStrategy’s card‑point announcement to sell coins, Polymarket’s additional rule explanation drives market probability to zero
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel mentioned in yesterday’s news flash that an address with a 99.9% proposal win rate initiated a “No” settlement for the market “MicroStrategy will sell BTC before June”. That evening, MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC 8‑K filing that it had sold 32 BTC a few days earlier.
The release of that filing caused the “Yes” probability in the market to rise to 85%: the market rules state that if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before 5 / 31 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle as “Yes”.
However, after several smart‑money participants bought “No”, the probability gradually fell to around 50%: because the filing was made public on 6 / 1, after the market’s 5 / 31 deadline, the “No” side argued that the document does not meet the “Yes” settlement condition.
Around 1 PM ET on 6 / 1, Polymarket posted an additional note for this market stating “There was no official MSTR information, on‑chain data, or reliable reporting confirming that Strategy sold BTC within the market timeframe before the market closed,” causing the “Yes” probability to plunge, now at 0.9%.
We will continue to sync more high‑win‑rate proposal address movements, settlement disputes, and rule‑change analyses to members, including analyses of settlement/dispute proposals, initiating address profits, sector win rates, and other information.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel mentioned in yesterday’s news flash that an address with a 99.9% proposal win rate initiated a “No” settlement for the market “MicroStrategy will sell BTC before June”. That evening, MicroStrategy disclosed in an SEC 8‑K filing that it had sold 32 BTC a few days earlier.
The release of that filing caused the “Yes” probability in the market to rise to 85%: the market rules state that if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before 5 / 31 11:59 PM ET, the market will settle as “Yes”.
However, after several smart‑money participants bought “No”, the probability gradually fell to around 50%: because the filing was made public on 6 / 1, after the market’s 5 / 31 deadline, the “No” side argued that the document does not meet the “Yes” settlement condition.
Around 1 PM ET on 6 / 1, Polymarket posted an additional note for this market stating “There was no official MSTR information, on‑chain data, or reliable reporting confirming that Strategy sold BTC within the market timeframe before the market closed,” causing the “Yes” probability to plunge, now at 0.9%.
We will continue to sync more high‑win‑rate proposal address movements, settlement disputes, and rule‑change analyses to members, including analyses of settlement/dispute proposals, initiating address profits, sector win rates, and other information.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 new accounts buy “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts bought “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 0.7%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news content, keeping you ahead in tracking global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 new accounts bought “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before June?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 0.7%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news content, keeping you ahead in tracking global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN