1 smart money investor put $1.2k on “Yes” for “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.2k on “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 72.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 81.0%.
o1.exchange is an on‑chain trading terminal for the Base / Solana ecosystems, featuring high‑frequency trading infrastructure, token discovery, multi‑wallet management, portfolio tracking, cashback, and point incentives. The project announced a $4.2 million financing round in August 2025, with investors including Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAO. Third‑party data platforms DropsTab / ICO Drops estimate the pre‑valuation for this round at about $42 million, though the official financing announcement did not disclose a valuation.
According to o1’s official documentation, the Points System Season 1.2 runs from January 19, 2026 to June 15, 2026, with the first phase distributing 40 million points over 20 weeks, followed by an additional 2 million points in the final week.
No publicly available material contains an o1‑officially confirmed token launch date.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific time.
Account:
0xac9b386454ed02ef205e0ebd189d8864fd02d4c5
Total investment: $1.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.2k on “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 72.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 81.0%.
0xac9b3864 invested $1.2k, and the market’s best correlated sector is Cryptocurrency, with a sector net profit of $71.6k. Across 266 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 117/266 (44%), including 83 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.9k.
o1.exchange is an on‑chain trading terminal for the Base / Solana ecosystems, featuring high‑frequency trading infrastructure, token discovery, multi‑wallet management, portfolio tracking, cashback, and point incentives. The project announced a $4.2 million financing round in August 2025, with investors including Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAO. Third‑party data platforms DropsTab / ICO Drops estimate the pre‑valuation for this round at about $42 million, though the official financing announcement did not disclose a valuation.
According to o1’s official documentation, the Points System Season 1.2 runs from January 19, 2026 to June 15, 2026, with the first phase distributing 40 million points over 20 weeks, followed by an additional 2 million points in the final week.
No publicly available material contains an o1‑officially confirmed token launch date.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific time.
Account:
0xac9b386454ed02ef205e0ebd189d8864fd02d4c5
Total investment: $1.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 76.0%.
Today, Axios reported that U.S. Vice President Wants said the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to completing a memorandum of understanding; the proposed arrangement includes extending the current cease‑fire by 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching new negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiators have agreed on the MOU terms; although Trump has not yet signed, sources say he leans toward approval.
Today, a Reuters survey showed that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the official price of oil sold to Asia for the second consecutive month in July: the premium of flagship Arab Light crude over Dubai/Oman benchmarks may fall by $3‑$8 per barrel compared with June. The average premium of cash Dubai crude over swaps in May dropped from $13.92 per barrel in April to $8.90 per barrel, mainly because Chinese refineries reduced processing and imports due to high prices, while the United States increased oil and fuel exports to fill part of the Middle‑East supply gap. This signal, combined with cease‑fire expectations, indicates that the downward pressure on oil is driven not only by a retreat in risk premium but also by genuinely weaker spot demand.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $7.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 76.0%.
0xe734e7bf invested $7.1k, with the market’s best correlated sector being Hidden New, sector net profit $343k. Across 78 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 45/78 (58%), including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $20.8k.
Today, Axios reported that U.S. Vice President Wants said the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to completing a memorandum of understanding; the proposed arrangement includes extending the current cease‑fire by 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching new negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiators have agreed on the MOU terms; although Trump has not yet signed, sources say he leans toward approval.
Today, a Reuters survey showed that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the official price of oil sold to Asia for the second consecutive month in July: the premium of flagship Arab Light crude over Dubai/Oman benchmarks may fall by $3‑$8 per barrel compared with June. The average premium of cash Dubai crude over swaps in May dropped from $13.92 per barrel in April to $8.90 per barrel, mainly because Chinese refineries reduced processing and imports due to high prices, while the United States increased oil and fuel exports to fill part of the Middle‑East supply gap. This signal, combined with cease‑fire expectations, indicates that the downward pressure on oil is driven not only by a retreat in risk premium but also by genuinely weaker spot demand.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $7.1k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
All 8 predictions that Claude 5 would not be released were profitable.
The market’s controversy centers on whether Anthropic’s new model will be officially named Claude 5 or be clearly regarded as the successor to Claude 4. Yesterday, Anthropic officially released Claude Opus 4.8, calling it an upgrade to Opus 4.7. Minor version iterations such as 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 do not meet the “successor” criteria.
In the Opus 4.8 release announcement, Anthropic said it plans to launch a new class of model that is more intelligent than Opus and expects to bring the Mythos‑class model to all customers in the coming weeks. Reuters and Axios reported the same day that Anthropic is preparing to launch the Mythos/Mythos‑class model in the next few weeks.
Community discussion currently focuses on this naming issue: one side believes that the “Mythos‑class model opening in the coming weeks” implies the Claude 5 window is approaching; the other side thinks Anthropic may continue using Mythos or 4.x naming to avoid directly moving to Claude 5.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x19167bff74cadaedf6dd31953a0fd79d86d3b8ed
Total investment: $1.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
0x19167bff invested $1.5k, and the market’s best correlated sector is Claude 5, with a sector net profit of $6.3k. In this sector, they have 8 settled trades with a win rate of 8/8 (100%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.701‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $999.
All 8 predictions that Claude 5 would not be released were profitable.
The market’s controversy centers on whether Anthropic’s new model will be officially named Claude 5 or be clearly regarded as the successor to Claude 4. Yesterday, Anthropic officially released Claude Opus 4.8, calling it an upgrade to Opus 4.7. Minor version iterations such as 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 do not meet the “successor” criteria.
In the Opus 4.8 release announcement, Anthropic said it plans to launch a new class of model that is more intelligent than Opus and expects to bring the Mythos‑class model to all customers in the coming weeks. Reuters and Axios reported the same day that Anthropic is preparing to launch the Mythos/Mythos‑class model in the next few weeks.
Community discussion currently focuses on this naming issue: one side believes that the “Mythos‑class model opening in the coming weeks” implies the Claude 5 window is approaching; the other side thinks Anthropic may continue using Mythos or 4.x naming to avoid directly moving to Claude 5.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x19167bff74cadaedf6dd31953a0fd79d86d3b8ed
Total investment: $1.5k
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1 account invested $8.9k “No” on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $8.9k on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 78.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
This smart money’s 9 trades in the Artificial Intelligence sector all forecast GPT model release dates.
On the 26th, AIBase reported rumors that iris‑alpha appeared in Codex backend logs, focusing on a 1.5 million‑token context, front‑end UI generation capability, and competition with the June model. The report mentioned “Lumen Notes” interface generation examples and speculation that Anthropic, Google, and xAI might launch new models simultaneously; these are community rumors or screenshot‑level information and have not been verified by official documentation.
OpenAI’s official page for tracking model releases still lists at the top “GPT‑5.5 Instant Update (May 28 2026)”, clearly stating the company is updating GPT‑5.5 Instant’s performance in ChatGPT and the API. Subsequent recent model events listed are GPT‑5.4 mini, GPT‑5.3 Instant update, and GPT‑5.2 update, with no public release date, open‑test details, or access link for GPT‑5.6.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at certain points for profit or loss.
Account:
0x0dba1031b49144fc304ceb51b1b4ffbf955371e9
Total investment: $8.9k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $8.9k on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 78.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
0x0dba1031 invested $8.9k, with the market’s top related sector being Artificial Intelligence, sector net profit $4.6k. In that sector they have 9 settled trades with a win rate of 7/9 (78%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
This smart money’s 9 trades in the Artificial Intelligence sector all forecast GPT model release dates.
On the 26th, AIBase reported rumors that iris‑alpha appeared in Codex backend logs, focusing on a 1.5 million‑token context, front‑end UI generation capability, and competition with the June model. The report mentioned “Lumen Notes” interface generation examples and speculation that Anthropic, Google, and xAI might launch new models simultaneously; these are community rumors or screenshot‑level information and have not been verified by official documentation.
OpenAI’s official page for tracking model releases still lists at the top “GPT‑5.5 Instant Update (May 28 2026)”, clearly stating the company is updating GPT‑5.5 Instant’s performance in ChatGPT and the API. Subsequent recent model events listed are GPT‑5.4 mini, GPT‑5.3 Instant update, and GPT‑5.2 update, with no public release date, open‑test details, or access link for GPT‑5.6.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at certain points for profit or loss.
Account:
0x0dba1031b49144fc304ceb51b1b4ffbf955371e9
Total investment: $8.9k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor put $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 42.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 58.5%.
The Israeli Parliament faces an early dissolution crisis, sparked by a complete breakdown between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and its ultra‑orthodox allies over religious‑student conscription exemptions. Amid prolonged war and manpower pressures, Israel’s Supreme Court has ordered the advancement of ultra‑orthodox conscription, while the religious party insists on retaining exemptions and rejects the government’s latest proposal. On May 20, the Parliament voted 110‑0 to pass the first reading of a dissolution bill, initiating the early election process. However, the Parliament has not yet been formally dissolved; the bill still requires committee review and three formal readings, and Netanyahu could still delay the process through political deals.
On the 27th, The Israeli Times reported that the dissolution bill must pass three additional readings in a full‑session vote to take effect; the coalition did not push forward immediately after the initial approval, and only after opposition pressure did coalition whip Ofir Katz schedule a discussion and submit the first reading on June 1. The dissolution bill does not set an election date directly but requires the parliamentary committee to determine the date after final passage; the election must be held at least three months and no more than five months after the bill takes effect. Ultra‑orthodox parties hope to move the election to early September, but Netanyahu is reported to oppose this timetable, privately warning that it would “endanger” the right‑wing bloc’s chances.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Total investment: $3.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 42.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 58.5%.
0x4e420310 invested $3.4k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $32.4k. In that sector, they have a win rate of 37/50 (74%) across 50 settled trades, including 15 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k.
The Israeli Parliament faces an early dissolution crisis, sparked by a complete breakdown between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and its ultra‑orthodox allies over religious‑student conscription exemptions. Amid prolonged war and manpower pressures, Israel’s Supreme Court has ordered the advancement of ultra‑orthodox conscription, while the religious party insists on retaining exemptions and rejects the government’s latest proposal. On May 20, the Parliament voted 110‑0 to pass the first reading of a dissolution bill, initiating the early election process. However, the Parliament has not yet been formally dissolved; the bill still requires committee review and three formal readings, and Netanyahu could still delay the process through political deals.
On the 27th, The Israeli Times reported that the dissolution bill must pass three additional readings in a full‑session vote to take effect; the coalition did not push forward immediately after the initial approval, and only after opposition pressure did coalition whip Ofir Katz schedule a discussion and submit the first reading on June 1. The dissolution bill does not set an election date directly but requires the parliamentary committee to determine the date after final passage; the election must be held at least three months and no more than five months after the bill takes effect. Ultra‑orthodox parties hope to move the election to early September, but Netanyahu is reported to oppose this timetable, privately warning that it would “endanger” the right‑wing bloc’s chances.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Total investment: $3.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $31.9k on “Yes” for “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $31.9k on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 57.5%.
Paris has scored 44 goals in this season’s Champions League, the most of any team in the tournament, just one short of the single‑season record; in the knockout stage they eliminated Chelsea 8–2, Liverpool 4–0, and Bayern 6–5 in the semifinals. Kylian Mbappé has scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League and added 7 goals and 3 assists, becoming the player with the most knockout‑stage goals this season.
Paris’s opponent Arsenal is 11‑3‑0 in 14 Champions League matches this season, the only unbeaten team in the tournament, also recording nine clean sheets, just one short of the single‑season clean‑sheet record. The two clubs have met seven times in European competition, each winning two and drawing three; last season’s Champions League semifinals saw Paris advance 3–1 on aggregate over Arsenal, winning 1–0 away and 2–1 at home.
Account:
0x7c585894ec02d5ed4fcd118ad8982f859360a5a1
Total investment: $31.9k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $31.9k on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 57.5%.
0x7c585894 invested $31.9k, with the market’s best‑related sector beingsoccer, sector net profit $114k. Across 63 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 34/63 (54%), with 29 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $20.1k.
In the soccer sector’s 50%‑60% cost range, the account completed 12 trades achieving a net profit of about $146k, a win rate of 75.0%, ROI 62.4%, with no take‑profit or stop‑loss actions.
Paris has scored 44 goals in this season’s Champions League, the most of any team in the tournament, just one short of the single‑season record; in the knockout stage they eliminated Chelsea 8–2, Liverpool 4–0, and Bayern 6–5 in the semifinals. Kylian Mbappé has scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League and added 7 goals and 3 assists, becoming the player with the most knockout‑stage goals this season.
Paris’s opponent Arsenal is 11‑3‑0 in 14 Champions League matches this season, the only unbeaten team in the tournament, also recording nine clean sheets, just one short of the single‑season clean‑sheet record. The two clubs have met seven times in European competition, each winning two and drawing three; last season’s Champions League semifinals saw Paris advance 3–1 on aggregate over Arsenal, winning 1–0 away and 2–1 at home.
Account:
0x7c585894ec02d5ed4fcd118ad8982f859360a5a1
Total investment: $31.9k
---------------------------------
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Who Will Claim the World Cup Title? (Seven-Continent Edition)
In the prediction market Polymarket, the market “This World Cup Champion Will Be a European Country” has a “Yes” probability of 72% at present.
Historically, the World Cup title has been dominated by Europe and South America. Up to 2022, out of 22 men’s World Cups, European teams have won 12 times, South American teams 10 times, and no other continent has ever won.
Looking only at the seven World Cups since 1998, European teams have won 5 of them, accounting for 71.4%, which is essentially in line with the current market’s 72% “Yes” probability.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, the market “This World Cup Champion Will Be a European Country” has a “Yes” probability of 72% at present.
Historically, the World Cup title has been dominated by Europe and South America. Up to 2022, out of 22 men’s World Cups, European teams have won 12 times, South American teams 10 times, and no other continent has ever won.
Looking only at the seven World Cups since 1998, European teams have won 5 of them, accounting for 71.4%, which is essentially in line with the current market’s 72% “Yes” probability.
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【Prediction Successful】Paris Saint‑Germain Defends Champions League Title, Fan Celebrations Spark Riots
In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart money placed a $31.9k “Yes” on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?”, and the market has now settled as “Yes”.
Paris Saint‑Germain defended their Champions League crown in the 2025–26 final at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest, drawing 1‑1 with Arsenal after 120 minutes and winning the penalty shoot‑out 4‑3. Arsenal took an early lead through Kai Havertz, while PSG equalised in the second half via an Ousmane Dembélé penalty; in the shoot‑out Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze and Gabriel missed, allowing Paris to claim their second ever Champions League trophy.
After the match, Paris staged massive celebrations. The Associated Press reported on May 31 that PSG players returned from Budapest and joined the official ceremony at Place du Trocadéro near the Eiffel Tower, where up to about 100,000 fans gathered. Captain Marquinhos, coach Luis Enrique and club president Nasser Al‑Khelaifi were all present, with players taking turns hoisting the trophy, and the team later proceeded to the Élysée Palace to meet President Emmanuel Macron.
However, the celebrations were partly eclipsed by unrest. The Associated Press noted on May 31 that 780 people were detained across France after the match, with 57 police officers injured, including 480 detainees in the Paris area; Paris prosecutors said 306 people were formally held, including 81 minors. Major clashes occurred near the Champs‑Élysées and around the Prince Park Stadium, with some individuals setting fires, vandalising shops, igniting trash and shared bicycles, burning vehicles, and a group even attempting to storm a police station in Paris’s 8th arrondissement.
---------------------------------
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In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that one smart money placed a $31.9k “Yes” on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?”, and the market has now settled as “Yes”.
Paris Saint‑Germain defended their Champions League crown in the 2025–26 final at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest, drawing 1‑1 with Arsenal after 120 minutes and winning the penalty shoot‑out 4‑3. Arsenal took an early lead through Kai Havertz, while PSG equalised in the second half via an Ousmane Dembélé penalty; in the shoot‑out Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze and Gabriel missed, allowing Paris to claim their second ever Champions League trophy.
After the match, Paris staged massive celebrations. The Associated Press reported on May 31 that PSG players returned from Budapest and joined the official ceremony at Place du Trocadéro near the Eiffel Tower, where up to about 100,000 fans gathered. Captain Marquinhos, coach Luis Enrique and club president Nasser Al‑Khelaifi were all present, with players taking turns hoisting the trophy, and the team later proceeded to the Élysée Palace to meet President Emmanuel Macron.
However, the celebrations were partly eclipsed by unrest. The Associated Press noted on May 31 that 780 people were detained across France after the match, with 57 police officers injured, including 480 detainees in the Paris area; Paris prosecutors said 306 people were formally held, including 81 minors. Major clashes occurred near the Champs‑Élysées and around the Prince Park Stadium, with some individuals setting fires, vandalising shops, igniting trash and shared bicycles, burning vehicles, and a group even attempting to storm a police station in Paris’s 8th arrondissement.
---------------------------------
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3 smart money participants in “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” invested $204.0k “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money participants invested $204.0k “Yes” on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” with an average purchase probability of 66.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 75.3%.
Strategy confirmed in Exhibit 99.1 submitted to the SEC on May 26 that after completing the $1.5 billion 2029‑maturity zero‑coupon convertible bond repurchase, the company holds 843,738 BTC, $6.7 billion of convertible bond principal, a $15.5 billion nominal preferred‑stock amount, and an $871 million USD Reserve; the company also stated it will supplement the USD reserve as market conditions warrant.
CoinNess reported on May 30 that Strategy transferred 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime, marking the first major exchange transfer in nearly two years, but three hours later Strategy withdrew the 411 BTC from the Coinbase Prime address, worth about $30.18 million; Coinbase Prime is a prime brokerage platform for institutional investors, offering trading, custody, and financing services.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
0xa6d9b55a6a3a54a9d50ca94c64f00af69c50fd2f
Total investment: $204.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money participants invested $204.0k “Yes” on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” with an average purchase probability of 66.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 75.3%.
Parz1vaI invested $23.1k, with the market’s best related sector being MicroStrategy, sector net profit $15.3k. In this sector they have 81 settled trades with a win rate of 67/81 (83%), including 8 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $2.3k, and this investment is 10.0 times that median.
Dropper invested $110k, with the market’s best related sector being MicroStrategy, sector net profit $87.1k. In this sector they have 63 settled trades with a win rate of 45/63 (71%), including 10 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $3.5k, and this investment is 31.5 times that median.
0xa6d9b55a invested $71.2k, with the market’s best related sector being MicroStrategy, sector net profit $59.1k. In this sector they have 44 settled trades with a win rate of 37/44 (84%), including 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $27.3k.
Strategy confirmed in Exhibit 99.1 submitted to the SEC on May 26 that after completing the $1.5 billion 2029‑maturity zero‑coupon convertible bond repurchase, the company holds 843,738 BTC, $6.7 billion of convertible bond principal, a $15.5 billion nominal preferred‑stock amount, and an $871 million USD Reserve; the company also stated it will supplement the USD reserve as market conditions warrant.
CoinNess reported on May 30 that Strategy transferred 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime, marking the first major exchange transfer in nearly two years, but three hours later Strategy withdrew the 411 BTC from the Coinbase Prime address, worth about $30.18 million; Coinbase Prime is a prime brokerage platform for institutional investors, offering trading, custody, and financing services.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
0xa6d9b55a6a3a54a9d50ca94c64f00af69c50fd2f
Total investment: $204.0k
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Proposal Initiated: “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the market “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?” had a “No” proposal launched, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.7%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the market “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?” had a “No” proposal launched, and the current “Yes” probability is 12.7%.
Proposal Initiator proposal win rate 99.9% (1434/1435), crypto sector win rate 100.0% (178/178)
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2 smart money investors have put $38.1k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have put $38.1k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 47.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 38.5%.
On May 30, Reuters reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said Trump is patient and wants a “good deal” that ensures Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons; but if negotiations fail, the United States is prepared to resume strikes on Iran. The same day, The Guardian analyzed that the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement that would end hostilities, with the most direct outcome possibly being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; however, this also shows Trump moving from an initial maximalist goal to a more transactional nuclear‑and‑shipping arrangement.
On the 31st, Axios reported that after a White House war‑room meeting, Trump asked to amend the draft agreement negotiated by his envoy with Iran, especially to strengthen provisions on Iranian nuclear material. This sparked a new round of U.S.–Iran document exchanges; the same day, Axios quoted senior U.S. officials saying, “There will be a deal, but the timeline could be a week, less than a week, or possibly longer.” The United States is willing to wait for Trump to obtain the terms he wants and hopes to see results early this week.
In the early hours of today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that until negotiations reach a real conclusion, everything being said externally remains speculation. Iran also demands that any agreement must protect its own rights and continue to link the release of frozen assets, sanction relief, and nuclear arrangements in the discussion.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $38.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have put $38.1k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 47.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 38.5%.
mr.ozi invested $33.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Middle East, sector net profit $114k. In that sector they have 269 settled trades with a win rate of 190/269 (71%), including 58 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $2.4k, and this investment is 13.9 times that median.
GollumGekko invested $4.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $91.3k. In that sector they have 1,846 settled trades with a win rate of 1,330/1,846 (72%), including 153 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $511.
On May 30, Reuters reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth said Trump is patient and wants a “good deal” that ensures Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons; but if negotiations fail, the United States is prepared to resume strikes on Iran. The same day, The Guardian analyzed that the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement that would end hostilities, with the most direct outcome possibly being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; however, this also shows Trump moving from an initial maximalist goal to a more transactional nuclear‑and‑shipping arrangement.
On the 31st, Axios reported that after a White House war‑room meeting, Trump asked to amend the draft agreement negotiated by his envoy with Iran, especially to strengthen provisions on Iranian nuclear material. This sparked a new round of U.S.–Iran document exchanges; the same day, Axios quoted senior U.S. officials saying, “There will be a deal, but the timeline could be a week, less than a week, or possibly longer.” The United States is willing to wait for Trump to obtain the terms he wants and hopes to see results early this week.
In the early hours of today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned that until negotiations reach a real conclusion, everything being said externally remains speculation. Iran also demands that any agreement must protect its own rights and continue to link the release of frozen assets, sanction relief, and nuclear arrangements in the discussion.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Total investment: $38.1k
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1 new account invested $67.7k on “Will Extended’s FDV exceed $300M one day after launch?” with “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $67.7k on “Will Extended’s FDV exceed $300M one day after launch?” with “Yes”, the average purchase probability was 48.5%, and the current “Yes” probability is 44.0%.
Extended is a Starknet‑based perpetual contract DEX that focuses on margin‑account trading of multiple assets. DeFiLlama shows Extended’s TVL at about $150 million, Open Interest at about $296 million, 30‑day perp volume at about $7.95 billion, cumulative perp volume at about $172.6 billion, and annualized fees at about $24.02 million.
The project has not yet announced a definitive TGE date. External calendar ICO Analytics lists EXT with a Q2 2026 TGE, theoretically before June 30 2026, but this is not an official final announcement and is for reference only.
Account:
0x7e3471906a6a168f57a4a2ba7ed27206b1b34cc1
Total investment: $67.7k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $67.7k on “Will Extended’s FDV exceed $300M one day after launch?” with “Yes”, the average purchase probability was 48.5%, and the current “Yes” probability is 44.0%.
Extended is a Starknet‑based perpetual contract DEX that focuses on margin‑account trading of multiple assets. DeFiLlama shows Extended’s TVL at about $150 million, Open Interest at about $296 million, 30‑day perp volume at about $7.95 billion, cumulative perp volume at about $172.6 billion, and annualized fees at about $24.02 million.
The project has not yet announced a definitive TGE date. External calendar ICO Analytics lists EXT with a Q2 2026 TGE, theoretically before June 30 2026, but this is not an official final announcement and is for reference only.
Account:
0x7e3471906a6a168f57a4a2ba7ed27206b1b34cc1
Total investment: $67.7k
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors in “US‑Iran diplomatic meeting before June 30” invested $28.5k “No”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors put $28.5k “No” on “Will the US and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting before June 30?” with an average purchase probability of 29.5%, and the current “Yes” probability is 54.0%.
WSJ today reported that U.S.–Iran negotiations may be prolonged, with key issues still including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, arrangements for Iran’s nuclear program, sanction relief, and the release of frozen assets. These unresolved differences will continue to elevate geopolitical risk. Reuters today noted that regional stock markets remain pricing in uncertainty around a U.S.–Iran agreement; Trump has not confirmed whether the cease‑fire will be extended or whether restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted, while the Iranian side emphasized that the conflict will not end without guarantees for the Iranian people’s rights.
Regarding a diplomatic meeting between the U.S. and Iran, the current question is “Can the text of the agreement be finalized before the meeting?” If the parties continue to haggle over high‑enriched uranium, sanction relief, and Hormuz language, the diplomatic meeting is likely to be postponed until a mature agreement text is ready.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x5739ddf8672627ce076eff5f444610a250075f1a
0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Total investment: $28.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors put $28.5k “No” on “Will the US and Iran hold a diplomatic meeting before June 30?” with an average purchase probability of 29.5%, and the current “Yes” probability is 54.0%.
0xbd0477e0 invested $18.6k, with the market’s most related sector being Politics, sector net profit $187k. In that sector they have 97 settled trades with a win rate of 47/97 (48%), including 39 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $328, making this investment 56.9 times that median.
hopedieslast invested $8.5k, with the market’s most related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $352k. In that sector they have 136 settled trades with a win rate of 84/136 (62%), including 39 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $823, making this investment 10.3 times that median.
Dragontree invested $1.4k, with the market’s most related sector being Politics, sector net profit $77.2k. In that sector they have 1,823 settled trades with a win rate of 1,132/1,823 (62%), including 467 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $92, making this investment 14.9 times that median.
WSJ today reported that U.S.–Iran negotiations may be prolonged, with key issues still including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, arrangements for Iran’s nuclear program, sanction relief, and the release of frozen assets. These unresolved differences will continue to elevate geopolitical risk. Reuters today noted that regional stock markets remain pricing in uncertainty around a U.S.–Iran agreement; Trump has not confirmed whether the cease‑fire will be extended or whether restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted, while the Iranian side emphasized that the conflict will not end without guarantees for the Iranian people’s rights.
Regarding a diplomatic meeting between the U.S. and Iran, the current question is “Can the text of the agreement be finalized before the meeting?” If the parties continue to haggle over high‑enriched uranium, sanction relief, and Hormuz language, the diplomatic meeting is likely to be postponed until a mature agreement text is ready.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x5739ddf8672627ce076eff5f444610a250075f1a
0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Total investment: $28.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 accounts invested $7.9k on “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by July 31?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts placed $7.9k on “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by July 31?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 47.5%.
Straits.live updated at 06:27 UTC on June 1, stating that the latest IMF PortWatch release was on May 24, when 4 commercial transit vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 4% of the typical pre‑crisis level of 95 vessels per day. This is far from the market’s “7‑day moving average 60” target. However, the same page also reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said 28 vessels had passed under its coordination in the past 24 hours, and AIS data showed 129 vessels arrived at Gulf ports in the last 24 hours.
The U.S. Treasury announced on May 27 that vessels complying with Iranian passage requirements—including payments in fiat, digital assets, offsets, informal swaps, or other methods for so‑called transit fees—could face sanction risks. The next day, the Treasury sanctioned the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority,” saying it was attempting to control Hormuz shipping and charge vessels. Iran described the fees as “navigation service fees” and denied they were transit charges.
On May 30, U.S. forces struck the Gambian‑flagged cargo ship Lian Star, which was attempting to break the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports; a missile hit its engine room. The U.S. said the vessel ignored more than 20 warnings and tried to head for an Iranian port. The U.S. also stated that, with this action, it had prevented 6 vessels from breaching the blockade and redirected another 116 vessels.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not merely betting on whether the event would occur; they opened positions and later took profit or stopped loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
0x02388370985ec313bcc199911073f91f52b6eb0b
Total investment: $7.9k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 accounts placed $7.9k on “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by July 31?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 47.5%.
Tenebrus7 invested $1.8k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $61.3k. In that sector they have 3002 settled trades with a win rate of 2145/3002 (71%), including 478 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451‑$0.6), the median historical investment amount is $541.
0x02388370 invested $6.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $8.7k. In that sector they have 85 settled trades with a win rate of 71/85 (84%), including 15 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $1.4k.
Straits.live updated at 06:27 UTC on June 1, stating that the latest IMF PortWatch release was on May 24, when 4 commercial transit vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 4% of the typical pre‑crisis level of 95 vessels per day. This is far from the market’s “7‑day moving average 60” target. However, the same page also reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said 28 vessels had passed under its coordination in the past 24 hours, and AIS data showed 129 vessels arrived at Gulf ports in the last 24 hours.
The U.S. Treasury announced on May 27 that vessels complying with Iranian passage requirements—including payments in fiat, digital assets, offsets, informal swaps, or other methods for so‑called transit fees—could face sanction risks. The next day, the Treasury sanctioned the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority,” saying it was attempting to control Hormuz shipping and charge vessels. Iran described the fees as “navigation service fees” and denied they were transit charges.
On May 30, U.S. forces struck the Gambian‑flagged cargo ship Lian Star, which was attempting to break the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports; a missile hit its engine room. The U.S. said the vessel ignored more than 20 warnings and tried to head for an Iranian port. The U.S. also stated that, with this action, it had prevented 6 vessels from breaching the blockade and redirected another 116 vessels.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not merely betting on whether the event would occur; they opened positions and later took profit or stopped loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
0x02388370985ec313bcc199911073f91f52b6eb0b
Total investment: $7.9k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The probability of “Yes” for “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between May 26 and June 1?” rose from 39% to 50%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 15 minutes the “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between May 26 and June 1?” “Yes” probability increased from 39% to 50%.
As of 03:50 EDT on June 1, the latest purchase record on the Strategy website still shows the last Bitcoin acquisition on May 18 at 24,869 BTC. The SEC 8‑K filed on May 26 states that between May 18 and May 25 the company neither sold shares via ATM nor purchased Bitcoin; on the same day the company disclosed the completion of a $1.5 billion 2029 convertible note buyback, with a cash cost of about $1.38 billion, reducing its USD reserves to $871 million.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 15 minutes the “Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase between May 26 and June 1?” “Yes” probability increased from 39% to 50%.
As of 03:50 EDT on June 1, the latest purchase record on the Strategy website still shows the last Bitcoin acquisition on May 18 at 24,869 BTC. The SEC 8‑K filed on May 26 states that between May 18 and May 25 the company neither sold shares via ATM nor purchased Bitcoin; on the same day the company disclosed the completion of a $1.5 billion 2029 convertible note buyback, with a cash cost of about $1.38 billion, reducing its USD reserves to $871 million.
---------------------------------
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1 smart‑money investor put $20.8k on “Yes” for “Will the Spurs win the 2026 NBA championship?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $20.8k on “Yes” for “Will the Spurs win the 2026 NBA championship?”, with an average entry probability of 27.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 64.1%.
On May 30, the Spurs won Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on the road, 111‑103, defeating defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder to advance 4‑3 to the Finals. Victor Wembanyama scored 22 points; he missed the 2024‑25 season early due to a blood‑clot issue, but returned healthy this season, leading the team to a 62‑20 record and being named the NBA’s 2025‑26 Defensive Player of the Year. Their Finals opponent, the New York Knicks, entered as the Eastern 3‑seed after sweeping the Cavaliers 4‑0 in the Eastern Conference Finals, including a 130‑93 blowout in Game 4, and arrived with an 11‑game postseason winning streak.
The Spurs’ 62 regular‑season wins clearly exceed the Knicks’ 53, giving them home‑court advantage in the Finals—Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, Games 5 and 7 will be in San Antonio. Additionally, Knicks center Mitchell Robinson recently suffered a right pinky fracture and underwent surgery; although ESPN reports he plans to wear a brace for Game 1, his rebounding and rim‑protection will be a variable in the series.
Based on past trades, this account has not taken profit on 96% of its winning trades in the NBA sector.
Account:
0x93abbc022ce98d6f45d4444b594791cc4b7a9723
Total investment: $20.8k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $20.8k on “Yes” for “Will the Spurs win the 2026 NBA championship?”, with an average entry probability of 27.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 64.1%.
0x93abbc02 invested $20.8k, and the market’s top related sector is NBA, with sector net profit of $1.0M. Across 625 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 326/625 (52%), including 314 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $10.2k.
On May 30, the Spurs won Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on the road, 111‑103, defeating defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder to advance 4‑3 to the Finals. Victor Wembanyama scored 22 points; he missed the 2024‑25 season early due to a blood‑clot issue, but returned healthy this season, leading the team to a 62‑20 record and being named the NBA’s 2025‑26 Defensive Player of the Year. Their Finals opponent, the New York Knicks, entered as the Eastern 3‑seed after sweeping the Cavaliers 4‑0 in the Eastern Conference Finals, including a 130‑93 blowout in Game 4, and arrived with an 11‑game postseason winning streak.
The Spurs’ 62 regular‑season wins clearly exceed the Knicks’ 53, giving them home‑court advantage in the Finals—Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, Games 5 and 7 will be in San Antonio. Additionally, Knicks center Mitchell Robinson recently suffered a right pinky fracture and underwent surgery; although ESPN reports he plans to wear a brace for Game 1, his rebounding and rim‑protection will be a variable in the series.
Based on past trades, this account has not taken profit on 96% of its winning trades in the NBA sector.
Account:
0x93abbc022ce98d6f45d4444b594791cc4b7a9723
Total investment: $20.8k
---------------------------------
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1 Smart Money Investor Bought “Will Kim Boo-kyum Win the 2026 Daegu Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $2.2k on “Will Kim Boo-kyum Win the 2026 Daegu Mayoral Election?” “Yes”, at an average purchase probability of 10.5%, causing the “Yes” probability to rise from 8.0% to 11.0%.
The Daegu mayoral election is scheduled for June 3. Kim Boo-kyum is the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, having served as Prime Minister during the Moon Jae‑in administration and as Minister of the Interior and Safety. He holds special political significance in Daegu: the city has long been viewed as the conservative “heartland,” yet Kim captured 40.33% of the vote in the 2014 Daegu mayoral race and won the Daegu‑Suseong‑A constituency for the liberal camp in 2016, making him one of the few Democratic politicians able to cross regional and partisan lines in Daegu.
His main opponent, Choo Kyung‑ho, is the People Power Party candidate, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance under the Yoon Suk‑yeol administration, and former party floor leader, campaigning as an “economy‑focused mayor” and seeking to consolidate the conservative camp. A poll commissioned by Daegu MBC and conducted by Ace Research on May 25‑26 showed Choo at 47.1% support and Kim at 45.7%, a gap of only 1.4 percentage points; the same firm’s mid‑April survey had Kim leading strongly at 49.2% to 35.1%.
The core variable in the recent race is whether the conservative vote will reconsolidate. Korean media report that former President Park Geun‑hye recently campaigned twice for Choo, seen as a key signal of the People Power Party mobilizing the conservative base in Daegu; Kim’s camp has brought in former parliamentary leader Yoo Won‑shik and other senior Democratic figures to counter the “Park Geun‑hye effect.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
Total investment: $2.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $2.2k on “Will Kim Boo-kyum Win the 2026 Daegu Mayoral Election?” “Yes”, at an average purchase probability of 10.5%, causing the “Yes” probability to rise from 8.0% to 11.0%.
flipadelphia invested $2.2k, with the market’s top related sector being Election, sector net profit $378k. Across 305 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 250/305 (82%), with 35 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $282.
The Daegu mayoral election is scheduled for June 3. Kim Boo-kyum is the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, having served as Prime Minister during the Moon Jae‑in administration and as Minister of the Interior and Safety. He holds special political significance in Daegu: the city has long been viewed as the conservative “heartland,” yet Kim captured 40.33% of the vote in the 2014 Daegu mayoral race and won the Daegu‑Suseong‑A constituency for the liberal camp in 2016, making him one of the few Democratic politicians able to cross regional and partisan lines in Daegu.
His main opponent, Choo Kyung‑ho, is the People Power Party candidate, former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance under the Yoon Suk‑yeol administration, and former party floor leader, campaigning as an “economy‑focused mayor” and seeking to consolidate the conservative camp. A poll commissioned by Daegu MBC and conducted by Ace Research on May 25‑26 showed Choo at 47.1% support and Kim at 45.7%, a gap of only 1.4 percentage points; the same firm’s mid‑April survey had Kim leading strongly at 49.2% to 35.1%.
The core variable in the recent race is whether the conservative vote will reconsolidate. Korean media report that former President Park Geun‑hye recently campaigned twice for Choo, seen as a key signal of the People Power Party mobilizing the conservative base in Daegu; Kim’s camp has brought in former parliamentary leader Yoo Won‑shik and other senior Democratic figures to counter the “Park Geun‑hye effect.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
Total investment: $2.2k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account bought “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 50 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $6.9k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8%, raising the “Yes” probability from 21.0% to 28.8%.
To date, Anthropic has not announced a release date for Claude 5. Its most recent official model release was Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, which the company described as an upgrade to Opus 4.7, improving coding, agent tasks, and professional‑knowledge performance, and it was made available the same day.
In April, Anthropic also released the Claude Mythos Preview, calling it one of the “most powerful” frontier models, used by a few partners in Project Glasswing for defensive cybersecurity work; however, the company noted that Mythos Preview is a gated research preview and is not planned for broad public release.
Account:
0x55f6860516a9a4767c851f973b1ad3965e391591
Total investment: $6.9k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 50 minutes ago, 1 new account invested $6.9k on “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 28.8%, raising the “Yes” probability from 21.0% to 28.8%.
To date, Anthropic has not announced a release date for Claude 5. Its most recent official model release was Claude Opus 4.8 on May 28, which the company described as an upgrade to Opus 4.7, improving coding, agent tasks, and professional‑knowledge performance, and it was made available the same day.
In April, Anthropic also released the Claude Mythos Preview, calling it one of the “most powerful” frontier models, used by a few partners in Project Glasswing for defensive cybersecurity work; however, the company noted that Mythos Preview is a gated research preview and is not planned for broad public release.
Anthropic’s mainstream flagship model release timeline over the past two years:
March 14 2023: Claude first released.
July 11 2023: Claude 2 released, public beta and API.
March 4 2024: Claude 3 family released, including Haiku, Sonnet, Opus.
May 22 2025: Claude 4 released, including Claude Opus 4 and Claude Sonnet 4.
Account:
0x55f6860516a9a4767c851f973b1ad3965e391591
Total investment: $6.9k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor bought “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, and the current “Yes” probability is 17.1%.
This account’s strongest related sector in this market is soccer, with sector net profit of $889k. It has a win rate of 18/40 (45%) across 40 settled trades in this sector, including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal position‑splitting operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, exclusive related news, and stay ahead of global developments.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
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1 account bought “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket 1 hour ago, 1 account invested $1.8k in “Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026?” on “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 41.7%, raising the “Yes” probability from 6.0% to 41.7%.
0xd709b9bd invested $1.8k. This trade is 18.0 times the median of its historical trades.
Multipli.fi is an RWA and real‑yield protocol that focuses on turning stablecoins, BTC, tokenized gold, tokenized stocks and other assets into on‑chain assets that generate yield or can be used as collateral. Its products include yield‑bearing xTokens and rwaUSD for RWA collateral and DeFi liquidity.
Multipli announced in 2025 that total financing reached $21.5M, including $5M of new financing and $16.5M reallocated from the team’s previous project Brine Fi to Multipli. Investors include Pantera Capital, Sequoia, Elevation Capital, Spartan Group; the project also received support from Binance Labs.
The Multipli documentation does not give a specific calendar date, but repeatedly states that ORBs will be converted into the native Multipli token at a certain ratio at TGE; Crystal is a reward system for Kaito/content creators and will also affect creators’ final TGE allocation. The official roadmap divides the mainnet into Season 1, Season 2, Season 3, with Season 3 aiming to push total TVL to $500M and described as the final ORB‑accumulation phase before TGE. Currently, the confirmed information is “there will be a TGE / there will be a native token / Season 3 is the final phase before TGE”.
Account:
0xd709b9bd5f07cc476ce22a4fe0a61beeeb227e5c
Total investment: $1.8k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 Smart Money Investors Bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart‑money investors bought “Will Spencer Pratt Win the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?”, currently with a “Yes” probability of 23.5%.
Account 1’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $11.1k. It has a win rate of 4/5 (80%) across 5 settled trades in that sector, with 0 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 2’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.3k. It has a win rate of 234/394 (59%) across 394 settled trades in that sector, with 58 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 3’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $22.1k. It has a win rate of 25/27 (93%) across 27 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
Account 4’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $61.3k. It has a win rate of 2145/3002 (71%) across 3,002 settled trades in that sector, with 478 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. This position is 24.7 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost range ($0.701‑$0.85).
Account 5’s best‑related sector for this market is Politics, with sector net profit of $93.4k. It has a win rate of 66/81 (81%) across 81 settled trades in that sector, with 3 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
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To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after payment.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN