1 new account invested $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” – “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.1%.
The new account has made 2 predictions in total; the first prediction, made 15 days ago, was “MicroStrategy will sell any Bitcoin before June,” which was stopped out 5 days ago, resulting in a loss of $15k.
On the 27th, Investor’s Business Daily analyzed that Strategy recently repurchased $1.38 billion in cash of $1.5 billion face‑value 2029 convertible bonds. Although the company described the transaction as improving its credit structure and raising the Bitcoin‑per‑share metric, the cost was a drop in its dollar reserves to only $871 million, enough to cover roughly 6.1 months of interest and preferred‑stock dividend obligations. This deal temporarily avoided a Bitcoin sale, but the company must now replenish its cash reserves; if financing conditions for MSTR common stock or STRC preferred stock worsen further, selling Bitcoin could shift from a theoretical option to an actual liquidity tool.
Account:
0xe32f0d8b087faa6cce0f6fdacb3264dece06ce26
Total investment: $24.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.1%.
The new account has made 2 predictions in total; the first prediction, made 15 days ago, was “MicroStrategy will sell any Bitcoin before June,” which was stopped out 5 days ago, resulting in a loss of $15k.
On the 27th, Investor’s Business Daily analyzed that Strategy recently repurchased $1.38 billion in cash of $1.5 billion face‑value 2029 convertible bonds. Although the company described the transaction as improving its credit structure and raising the Bitcoin‑per‑share metric, the cost was a drop in its dollar reserves to only $871 million, enough to cover roughly 6.1 months of interest and preferred‑stock dividend obligations. This deal temporarily avoided a Bitcoin sale, but the company must now replenish its cash reserves; if financing conditions for MSTR common stock or STRC preferred stock worsen further, selling Bitcoin could shift from a theoretical option to an actual liquidity tool.
Account:
0xe32f0d8b087faa6cce0f6fdacb3264dece06ce26
Total investment: $24.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?」the “Yes” probability rose from 48% to 85.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?” “Yes” probability increased from 48% to 85.5%.
The market’s rules require Trump to actually file or re‑file a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal within this month; a new suit or an amended complaint that contains new or revised claims counts, but appeals, motions for reconsideration, mere threats to sue, or statements of intent to sue do not count.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida dismissed Trump’s defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, News Corp., Rupert Murdoch and other defendants on April 13, issuing a “without prejudice” dismissal, which allows Trump to submit an amended complaint. Trump’s team then sought limited discovery before rewriting the complaint, hoping to find evidence that the defendants acted with “actual malice.”
On May 22, the court’s amended order denied Trump’s request for discovery, finding that without a qualifying complaint the plaintiff cannot use the discovery process to bolster the case; however, the court agreed to extend the deadline for the amended complaint, explicitly requiring Trump to file the amended complaint on or before May 27.
The case stems from a Wall Street Journal report about Trump’s connection to Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents show that the WSJ reported in 2025 that a birthday album for Epstein’s 50th birthday contained a purportedly explicit letter bearing Trump’s name; Trump denied the letter’s authenticity and filed a lawsuit against the WSJ and related defendants in July 2025.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?” “Yes” probability increased from 48% to 85.5%.
The market’s rules require Trump to actually file or re‑file a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal within this month; a new suit or an amended complaint that contains new or revised claims counts, but appeals, motions for reconsideration, mere threats to sue, or statements of intent to sue do not count.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida dismissed Trump’s defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, News Corp., Rupert Murdoch and other defendants on April 13, issuing a “without prejudice” dismissal, which allows Trump to submit an amended complaint. Trump’s team then sought limited discovery before rewriting the complaint, hoping to find evidence that the defendants acted with “actual malice.”
On May 22, the court’s amended order denied Trump’s request for discovery, finding that without a qualifying complaint the plaintiff cannot use the discovery process to bolster the case; however, the court agreed to extend the deadline for the amended complaint, explicitly requiring Trump to file the amended complaint on or before May 27.
The case stems from a Wall Street Journal report about Trump’s connection to Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents show that the WSJ reported in 2025 that a birthday album for Epstein’s 50th birthday contained a purportedly explicit letter bearing Trump’s name; Trump denied the letter’s authenticity and filed a lawsuit against the WSJ and related defendants in July 2025.
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「Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?」 “Yes” probability rose from 5.8% to 17.9%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Yes” probability for “Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?” rose from 5.8% to 17.9%.
Semafor reported at 18:23 ET on May 27 that CNBC said Musk had discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla with colleagues; the report also noted that SpaceX is only weeks away from an anticipated Nasdaq listing, reviving merger talks. Advanced Television on May 27 also quoted CNBC, stating that the two companies already have extensive operational overlap, with market observers describing them as “largely separate on paper” in many respects.
The broader recent context is the SpaceX IPO. CBS reported on May 21 that SpaceX has filed for a listing, planning to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and disclosed projected 2025 revenue of about $18.7 B with a loss of roughly $2.6 B; CBS also noted that Wedbush analysts think Musk may want further control of the AI ecosystem and could eventually link SpaceX and Tesla in some way. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation said on the same day that SpaceX could list as early as mid‑June, with a fundraising target that could set a record, and that Musk would retain majority voting rights after the IPO.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Yes” probability for “Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?” rose from 5.8% to 17.9%.
Semafor reported at 18:23 ET on May 27 that CNBC said Musk had discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla with colleagues; the report also noted that SpaceX is only weeks away from an anticipated Nasdaq listing, reviving merger talks. Advanced Television on May 27 also quoted CNBC, stating that the two companies already have extensive operational overlap, with market observers describing them as “largely separate on paper” in many respects.
The broader recent context is the SpaceX IPO. CBS reported on May 21 that SpaceX has filed for a listing, planning to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and disclosed projected 2025 revenue of about $18.7 B with a loss of roughly $2.6 B; CBS also noted that Wedbush analysts think Musk may want further control of the AI ecosystem and could eventually link SpaceX and Tesla in some way. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation said on the same day that SpaceX could list as early as mid‑June, with a fundraising target that could set a record, and that Musk would retain majority voting rights after the IPO.
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“Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” market rejected seconds after proposal launch
On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the “Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” “Yes” proposal was rejected 1 minute after it was launched. The current probability of “Yes” is 87%.
The Associated Press reported on May 27 that Iranians, after months of being cut off, have begun to regain internet access, but service remains slow and unstable, and apps such as YouTube and Instagram are still heavily restricted. The AP cited NetBlocks, noting that Iran’s connectivity has recovered to roughly 86% of pre‑shutdown levels; however, Kentik data shows actual internet traffic at about 40%, and cybersecurity analyst Amir Rashidi says it is still too early to declare the shutdown over.
Cloudflare’s official blog said on May 27 that around 11:00 UTC on May 26, Cloudflare Radar observed a noticeable rise in Iranian traffic and DNS queries, indicating a “partial restoration” in progress; yet at the May 26 peak, traffic only returned to about 40% of the highest level observed in 2026, with the new traffic heavily concentrated in Tehran and IPv6 still barely restored. Cloudflare also warned that a brief recovery in January was followed by another decline, so it remains to be seen whether traffic will stabilize at pre‑shutdown baselines in the coming days.
The political trigger was President Pezeshkian’s order to restore international internet access. Reuters reported on May 25 that the Iranian president had ordered the reopening of international internet access; Iran International further reported on May 25 that a Revolutionary Guard‑linked media outlet questioned whether the president had the authority to make the decision unilaterally, as the internet restriction was imposed by the Supreme National Security Council, which theoretically should also lift it. Reports re‑posted by Al Jazeera/AFP also noted that Iran’s administrative court later suspended the president’s decision to create a new network‑governance body, leaving “whether the restoration will endure” still subject to institutional risk.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the “Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” “Yes” proposal was rejected 1 minute after it was launched. The current probability of “Yes” is 87%.
Proposal initiator proposal win rate 100.0% (24/24), Iran sector win rate 100.0% (4/4)
Dispute initiator dispute win rate 50.0% (7/14), Iran sector dispute win rate 100.0% (2/2)
The Associated Press reported on May 27 that Iranians, after months of being cut off, have begun to regain internet access, but service remains slow and unstable, and apps such as YouTube and Instagram are still heavily restricted. The AP cited NetBlocks, noting that Iran’s connectivity has recovered to roughly 86% of pre‑shutdown levels; however, Kentik data shows actual internet traffic at about 40%, and cybersecurity analyst Amir Rashidi says it is still too early to declare the shutdown over.
Cloudflare’s official blog said on May 27 that around 11:00 UTC on May 26, Cloudflare Radar observed a noticeable rise in Iranian traffic and DNS queries, indicating a “partial restoration” in progress; yet at the May 26 peak, traffic only returned to about 40% of the highest level observed in 2026, with the new traffic heavily concentrated in Tehran and IPv6 still barely restored. Cloudflare also warned that a brief recovery in January was followed by another decline, so it remains to be seen whether traffic will stabilize at pre‑shutdown baselines in the coming days.
The political trigger was President Pezeshkian’s order to restore international internet access. Reuters reported on May 25 that the Iranian president had ordered the reopening of international internet access; Iran International further reported on May 25 that a Revolutionary Guard‑linked media outlet questioned whether the president had the authority to make the decision unilaterally, as the internet restriction was imposed by the Supreme National Security Council, which theoretically should also lift it. Reports re‑posted by Al Jazeera/AFP also noted that Iran’s administrative court later suspended the president’s decision to create a new network‑governance body, leaving “whether the restoration will endure” still subject to institutional risk.
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1 smart money investor put $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, with an average purchase probability of 3.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 3.9%.
On the 27th, AP reported that the Netherlands retained its frontline core before the World Cup: national team’s all‑time leading scorer Memphis Depay returned to Ronald Koeman’s 26‑man squad after recovering from injury, having scored 55 goals for the Netherlands; even if Depay cannot immediately resume a starting role, Koeman still has in‑form Roma striker Donyell Malen as a frontline alternative. AP also noted that the Netherlands currently sits seventh in the FIFA rankings, and Koeman’s assessment of the team is: “We can go far, and this is a team that is hard to beat.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x966cd85371117d811aab6e6f2b98377433659b1a
Total investment: $24.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, with an average purchase probability of 3.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 3.9%.
0x966cd853 invested $24.1k, with the market’s best related sector being soccer, sector net profit $441k. Across 118 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 72/118 (61%), with 66 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k, and this investment is 22.9 times that median.
On the 27th, AP reported that the Netherlands retained its frontline core before the World Cup: national team’s all‑time leading scorer Memphis Depay returned to Ronald Koeman’s 26‑man squad after recovering from injury, having scored 55 goals for the Netherlands; even if Depay cannot immediately resume a starting role, Koeman still has in‑form Roma striker Donyell Malen as a frontline alternative. AP also noted that the Netherlands currently sits seventh in the FIFA rankings, and Koeman’s assessment of the team is: “We can go far, and this is a team that is hard to beat.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x966cd85371117d811aab6e6f2b98377433659b1a
Total investment: $24.1k
---------------------------------
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「Will Claude Code commit volume reach 750.0k (HIGH) by May 31?」the “Yes” probability rose from 2% to 75.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 5 minutes, “Will Claude Code commit volume reach 750.0k (HIGH) by May 31?” the “Yes” probability rose from 2% to 75.5%, with related trading volume $2.0k.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 5 minutes, “Will Claude Code commit volume reach 750.0k (HIGH) by May 31?” the “Yes” probability rose from 2% to 75.5%, with related trading volume $2.0k.
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4 accounts invested $27.6k on “Yes” for “Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts placed $27.6k on “Yes” for “Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 33.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 33.5%.
The Colombian presidential election uses a two‑round system: in the first round a candidate must obtain more than half of the valid votes to be elected outright; if no one reaches a majority, the top two will face a runoff on June 21. This election centers on a reassessment of former President Petro’s four‑year left‑wing agenda. Petro promoted social reforms, energy transition, and “comprehensive peace” talks with armed groups, but a deteriorating security situation has made public safety the focal issue. Cepeda advocates continuing Petro’s reforms and negotiation approach, while De la Espriella calls for a hard line against armed groups, expanded oil‑gas development, and a smaller government.
De la Espriella’s main advantage is the most explosive pre‑vote issue: security anxiety. Attacks by armed groups, drone bombings, drug‑trade economies and local loss of control have eroded the appeal of “negotiations for peace” among some voters; his weakness is that he can easily gather anti‑left votes but may struggle to win moderate centrist trust. He lacks public‑office experience, uses a highly confrontational rhetorical style, and proposes very strong economic and security policies.
On the 24th, EL PAÍS reported that Cepeda has held more than 100 nationwide events during his campaign and has set a goal of winning outright in the first round; he told the media, “We are confident we can win in the first round.” His backing, the Pacto Histórico, became the largest parliamentary force in the March congressional elections, and its expanded “Life Alliance” now includes Alianza Verde, En Marcha, parts of the liberal opposition, and social movements. Cepeda not only leads in polls but also has an organizational base capable of mobilizing grassroots voters on election day and absorbing centrist‑left votes in a potential second round.
On the 27th, Caracol’s summary of the Invamer “Colombia Opina #22” final poll showed that in the survey conducted from May 13 to 20, Cepeda led Abelardo de la Espriella 52.4% to 45.3%; led Paloma Valencia 52.8% to 44.3%; led Sergio Fajardo 62.1% to 33.7%; and led Claudia López 64.8% to 28.5%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x3e4a02553d02dbad33e16b90bb125615f3e95c76
0xcd0cb0cf4570d379525b56ea754d40eaf8e2ca5a
0xc99e1a68b35173993c6a8a611d0ca0cc3aa684a3
0x9ffd58cdf3c872916f43b9d9b350bb506b971a4c
Total investment: $27.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts placed $27.6k on “Yes” for “Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 33.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 33.5%.
The Colombian presidential election uses a two‑round system: in the first round a candidate must obtain more than half of the valid votes to be elected outright; if no one reaches a majority, the top two will face a runoff on June 21. This election centers on a reassessment of former President Petro’s four‑year left‑wing agenda. Petro promoted social reforms, energy transition, and “comprehensive peace” talks with armed groups, but a deteriorating security situation has made public safety the focal issue. Cepeda advocates continuing Petro’s reforms and negotiation approach, while De la Espriella calls for a hard line against armed groups, expanded oil‑gas development, and a smaller government.
De la Espriella’s main advantage is the most explosive pre‑vote issue: security anxiety. Attacks by armed groups, drone bombings, drug‑trade economies and local loss of control have eroded the appeal of “negotiations for peace” among some voters; his weakness is that he can easily gather anti‑left votes but may struggle to win moderate centrist trust. He lacks public‑office experience, uses a highly confrontational rhetorical style, and proposes very strong economic and security policies.
On the 24th, EL PAÍS reported that Cepeda has held more than 100 nationwide events during his campaign and has set a goal of winning outright in the first round; he told the media, “We are confident we can win in the first round.” His backing, the Pacto Histórico, became the largest parliamentary force in the March congressional elections, and its expanded “Life Alliance” now includes Alianza Verde, En Marcha, parts of the liberal opposition, and social movements. Cepeda not only leads in polls but also has an organizational base capable of mobilizing grassroots voters on election day and absorbing centrist‑left votes in a potential second round.
On the 27th, Caracol’s summary of the Invamer “Colombia Opina #22” final poll showed that in the survey conducted from May 13 to 20, Cepeda led Abelardo de la Espriella 52.4% to 45.3%; led Paloma Valencia 52.8% to 44.3%; led Sergio Fajardo 62.1% to 33.7%; and led Claudia López 64.8% to 28.5%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x3e4a02553d02dbad33e16b90bb125615f3e95c76
0xcd0cb0cf4570d379525b56ea754d40eaf8e2ca5a
0xc99e1a68b35173993c6a8a611d0ca0cc3aa684a3
0x9ffd58cdf3c872916f43b9d9b350bb506b971a4c
Total investment: $27.6k
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NBA Winning Streak Combo: Thunder’s SGA “Glory”?
In the prediction market Polymarket, the market “NBA: SGA Award Winning Streak Combo” currently has a “Yes” probability of 55%.
SGA stands for Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander. In the 2024‑25 season he averaged 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game in the regular season, shooting 51.9% from the field, 37.5% from three‑point range and 89.8% from the free‑throw line; the Thunder finished the regular season 68‑14, the best record in the league, and then defeated the Pacers to win the 2025 NBA championship.
The market settles to “Yes” only if all three of the following occur: SGA is announced the 2025‑26 NBA MVP, SGA is announced the 2026 NBA Finals MVP, and the Thunder are announced the 2026 NBA champion. If any condition is not met, it settles to “No”. The first condition has already been satisfied: SGA repeated as the 2025‑26 regular‑season MVP.
The Western Conference Finals are now 3‑2 in favor of the Thunder over the Spurs, but recent discussion on social media has focused less on the series and more on criticism of SGA himself: videos of SGA drawing fouls and falling to the floor have spread widely across platforms, and many fans have expressed displeasure with the “flopping” behavior.
Sporting News reported on May 23 that in Game 3, third quarter, the Frost Bank Center crowd repeatedly shouted “flopper” for about two minutes after SGA fell to draw a foul; the two teams combined for more than 30 free‑throw attempts that quarter, and SGA was averaging 10 free‑throw attempts per playoff game at the time—the highest among the remaining players. After the game, SGA responded that it neither motivates him nor discourages him, and that he has dealt with that kind of noise for a long time.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, the market “NBA: SGA Award Winning Streak Combo” currently has a “Yes” probability of 55%.
SGA stands for Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander. In the 2024‑25 season he averaged 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game in the regular season, shooting 51.9% from the field, 37.5% from three‑point range and 89.8% from the free‑throw line; the Thunder finished the regular season 68‑14, the best record in the league, and then defeated the Pacers to win the 2025 NBA championship.
The market settles to “Yes” only if all three of the following occur: SGA is announced the 2025‑26 NBA MVP, SGA is announced the 2026 NBA Finals MVP, and the Thunder are announced the 2026 NBA champion. If any condition is not met, it settles to “No”. The first condition has already been satisfied: SGA repeated as the 2025‑26 regular‑season MVP.
The Western Conference Finals are now 3‑2 in favor of the Thunder over the Spurs, but recent discussion on social media has focused less on the series and more on criticism of SGA himself: videos of SGA drawing fouls and falling to the floor have spread widely across platforms, and many fans have expressed displeasure with the “flopping” behavior.
Sporting News reported on May 23 that in Game 3, third quarter, the Frost Bank Center crowd repeatedly shouted “flopper” for about two minutes after SGA fell to draw a foul; the two teams combined for more than 30 free‑throw attempts that quarter, and SGA was averaging 10 free‑throw attempts per playoff game at the time—the highest among the remaining players. After the game, SGA responded that it neither motivates him nor discourages him, and that he has dealt with that kind of noise for a long time.
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New Event: “Will Trump Attend the NBA Finals?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “Will Trump Attend the NBA Finals?” currently shows a “Yes” probability of 79%.
The rule states that if Donald Trump is “present in person” at any point during any game of the 2026 NBA Finals, it settles as “Yes.” Full arena attendance is not required, nor is appearing on broadcast camera footage.
The Knicks are the New York team Trump calls home, and this year marks their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999, with their home venue at Madison Square Garden. The NBA website updated on May 27 says the Finals begin on June 3, with the Knicks having secured the Eastern Conference title and set to face the winner of the Thunder/Spurs matchup.
The Associated Press reported the same day that Trump told reporters at the White House that Knicks owner James Dolan invited him to watch the NBA Finals; he had originally planned to attend Game 5 of the Eastern Conference at Madison Square Garden, but the Knicks swept the Cavaliers 4‑0, so Game 5 did not occur. CBS New York also reported that Trump said he had received multiple invitations, including from Dolan, and said, “I think I’ll go to one of them.”
James Dolan, the owner of the Knicks, the New York Rangers, and Madison Square Garden, is a long‑time acquaintance and political donor to Trump. Front Office Sports wrote on May 27 that Dolan is a longtime friend and donor of Trump, and that he even let Trump use MSG for a large rally free of charge before the 2024 election.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “Will Trump Attend the NBA Finals?” currently shows a “Yes” probability of 79%.
The rule states that if Donald Trump is “present in person” at any point during any game of the 2026 NBA Finals, it settles as “Yes.” Full arena attendance is not required, nor is appearing on broadcast camera footage.
The Knicks are the New York team Trump calls home, and this year marks their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999, with their home venue at Madison Square Garden. The NBA website updated on May 27 says the Finals begin on June 3, with the Knicks having secured the Eastern Conference title and set to face the winner of the Thunder/Spurs matchup.
The Associated Press reported the same day that Trump told reporters at the White House that Knicks owner James Dolan invited him to watch the NBA Finals; he had originally planned to attend Game 5 of the Eastern Conference at Madison Square Garden, but the Knicks swept the Cavaliers 4‑0, so Game 5 did not occur. CBS New York also reported that Trump said he had received multiple invitations, including from Dolan, and said, “I think I’ll go to one of them.”
James Dolan, the owner of the Knicks, the New York Rangers, and Madison Square Garden, is a long‑time acquaintance and political donor to Trump. Front Office Sports wrote on May 27 that Dolan is a longtime friend and donor of Trump, and that he even let Trump use MSG for a large rally free of charge before the 2024 election.
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“Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?” Top predictor’s call, 9% rise in 3 hours
On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?” market shows a “Yes” probability of 14% at present.
The top “Yes” holder on that market claims to have posted on X outlining 21 reasons for backing “Yes.” The core argument of the long post is not “Saylor is bearish on Bitcoin,” but that Strategy has added “small‑scale BTC sales” to its capital‑market toolbox.
The author believes the market is still pricing based on Saylor’s past “never sell coins” narrative, while Strategy’s May Q1 earnings call and materials have already shifted to a new model: it can sell a modest amount of BTC to pay dividends, repurchase debt, maintain a USD reserve, and simultaneously issue STRC/MSTR to buy more BTC, ultimately remaining a net BTC buyer.
Key points of the argument include Strategy’s official statements, the May cash‑need window, Strategy’s public discussion that “selling BTC could actually strengthen its credit narrative,” and on‑chain signals (unverified).
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31?” market shows a “Yes” probability of 14% at present.
The top “Yes” holder on that market claims to have posted on X outlining 21 reasons for backing “Yes.” The core argument of the long post is not “Saylor is bearish on Bitcoin,” but that Strategy has added “small‑scale BTC sales” to its capital‑market toolbox.
The author believes the market is still pricing based on Saylor’s past “never sell coins” narrative, while Strategy’s May Q1 earnings call and materials have already shifted to a new model: it can sell a modest amount of BTC to pay dividends, repurchase debt, maintain a USD reserve, and simultaneously issue STRC/MSTR to buy more BTC, ultimately remaining a net BTC buyer.
Key points of the argument include Strategy’s official statements, the May cash‑need window, Strategy’s public discussion that “selling BTC could actually strengthen its credit narrative,” and on‑chain signals (unverified).
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1 smart‑money investor put $1.9k on “Yes” for “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.9k on “Yes” for “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0% and the current “Yes” probability at 60.5%.
On the 27th, when a reporter asked him at a White House cabinet meeting whether he would attend a Knicks game, Trump replied, “I think I’ll go to one of the games. I’ve received a lot of invitations, including from Jim, and I think I’ll go. It’s great to see all this. The Knicks have really suffered over the years, and now they’re performing very well.” In the same conversation, he noted that he had originally planned to watch Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks swept the Cavaliers early, canceling that game.
The biggest practical obstacle to the president visiting Madison Square Garden is security and unforeseen‑event variables, not ticket availability or invitations. Front Office Sports quoted a U.S. Secret Service spokesperson saying, “Whenever the president travels, the Secret Service coordinates closely with law‑enforcement partners and event staff.” Madison Square Garden is about 1.5 miles from Trump Tower, where Trump still maintains a residence in New York, and he has previously attended UFC events at the venue.
Note: Based on his past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; he may have opened a position and later taken profit or cut losses at a certain point.
Account:
0x994bf485a7ba57fe4f437b93f6052dfad77cc047
Total investment: $1.9k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart‑money investor placed $1.9k on “Yes” for “Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0% and the current “Yes” probability at 60.5%.
0x994bf485 invested $1.9k, with the market’s top related sector being Sports, sector net profit $24.5k. Across 96 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 49/96 (51%), including 47 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.0k.
On the 27th, when a reporter asked him at a White House cabinet meeting whether he would attend a Knicks game, Trump replied, “I think I’ll go to one of the games. I’ve received a lot of invitations, including from Jim, and I think I’ll go. It’s great to see all this. The Knicks have really suffered over the years, and now they’re performing very well.” In the same conversation, he noted that he had originally planned to watch Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks swept the Cavaliers early, canceling that game.
The biggest practical obstacle to the president visiting Madison Square Garden is security and unforeseen‑event variables, not ticket availability or invitations. Front Office Sports quoted a U.S. Secret Service spokesperson saying, “Whenever the president travels, the Secret Service coordinates closely with law‑enforcement partners and event staff.” Madison Square Garden is about 1.5 miles from Trump Tower, where Trump still maintains a residence in New York, and he has previously attended UFC events at the venue.
Note: Based on his past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; he may have opened a position and later taken profit or cut losses at a certain point.
Account:
0x994bf485a7ba57fe4f437b93f6052dfad77cc047
Total investment: $1.9k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor invested $42.0k on “Will the U.S. announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31?” – “No”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $42.0k on “Will the U.S. announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 62.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 32.5%.
On the 28th, AP reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams had reached a provisional agreement to extend the cease‑fire by 60 days, though Iran had not immediately confirmed any deal; Vance that evening acknowledged the provisional outcome while emphasizing that it remains unclear whether Trump will approve it, stating: “It’s hard to say when the president will sign, or even if he will sign.” On the same day, Reuters reported that Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar will visit Washington on Friday to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, discussing bilateral relations as well as regional and global issues.
Today, Reuters analysis said Trump is being squeezed from both sides: one side urges a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lower U.S. oil prices; the other side wants to avoid angering hard‑liners in the Republican Party. The emerging framework agreement would push the Iranian nuclear issue to the next round of talks, while key matters such as sanction relief, Iran’s near‑weapons‑grade enriched uranium stockpiles, and the long‑term status of the strait remain unresolved.
Six hours ago, the Guardian’s live feed recorded several security signals that could slow the announcement pace: Iran’s state TV said Iranian air defenses shot down an “enemy aircraft” near Bushehr; Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iranian armed forces fired “warning shots” at four vessels that had not coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2
Total investment: $42.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $42.0k on “Will the U.S. announce a new Iran agreement/cease‑fire extension before May 31?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 62.9%. The current “Yes” probability is 32.5%.
AdrianCronauer invested $42.0k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $348k. Across 43 settled trades in this sector, his win rate is 36/43 (84%); there is 1 trade where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $3.5k, and this investment is 12.0 times that median.
On the 28th, AP reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams had reached a provisional agreement to extend the cease‑fire by 60 days, though Iran had not immediately confirmed any deal; Vance that evening acknowledged the provisional outcome while emphasizing that it remains unclear whether Trump will approve it, stating: “It’s hard to say when the president will sign, or even if he will sign.” On the same day, Reuters reported that Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar will visit Washington on Friday to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, discussing bilateral relations as well as regional and global issues.
Today, Reuters analysis said Trump is being squeezed from both sides: one side urges a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lower U.S. oil prices; the other side wants to avoid angering hard‑liners in the Republican Party. The emerging framework agreement would push the Iranian nuclear issue to the next round of talks, while key matters such as sanction relief, Iran’s near‑weapons‑grade enriched uranium stockpiles, and the long‑term status of the strait remain unresolved.
Six hours ago, the Guardian’s live feed recorded several security signals that could slow the announcement pace: Iran’s state TV said Iranian air defenses shot down an “enemy aircraft” near Bushehr; Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iranian armed forces fired “warning shots” at four vessels that had not coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xf9c1190aa8184bcbe418e6f5321c53b0bfbc39e2
Total investment: $42.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The “Yes” probability for Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31? rose from 28.7% to 34%.
On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past 5 minutes, the “Yes” probability for Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31? rose from 28.7% to 34%, with related volume $2.2k.
2 hours ago, Strategy deposited 411.48 BTC (worth $30.3 million) into Coinbase Prime. Some traders believe this deposit is related to MicroStrategy’s earlier statement that it might sell Bitcoin.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past 5 minutes, the “Yes” probability for Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before May 31? rose from 28.7% to 34%, with related volume $2.2k.
2 hours ago, Strategy deposited 411.48 BTC (worth $30.3 million) into Coinbase Prime. Some traders believe this deposit is related to MicroStrategy’s earlier statement that it might sell Bitcoin.
---------------------------------
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3 smart investors put $28.2k on the belief that “The Backrooms” opening weekend box‑office will far exceed expectations
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart investors have committed $28.2k to “Yes” for “Will “The Backrooms” opening weekend box‑office exceed $79 m?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 82.0%.
“The Backrooms” is a horror film released by A24, adapted from the internet‑originated creepypasta of the same name and a YouTube series of faux‑documentary videos. The concept originally revolved around “getting lost in an endless yellow room and fluorescent‑lit hallway,” with the core dread stemming from liminal spaces, empty office environments, and a “no‑clipping”‑style slip into an alternate dimension. The story follows a mysterious entrance that appears in the basement of a furniture store.
Currently, the market’s probability is noticeably higher than most publicly tracked box‑office ranges. Boxoffice Pro forecast on May 27 that “The Backrooms” opening weekend would be $45 m‑$55 m, noting that continued outperformance could push it to about $65 m; Box Office Theory gave an even higher range the same day, $50 m‑$68 m. Even with these optimistic estimates, there remains a gap to the $79 m+ level.
In terms of same‑week competition, “The Backrooms” faces three main rivals: (1) “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” now in its second weekend and still drawing a large family audience; (2) the horror film “Obsession,” in its third weekend and still strong, overlapping with the horror‑genre audience; and (3) the newly released family comedy “Family Keepers” and the World‑War‑II drama “Normandy 72 Hours,” targeting family viewers and adult audiences respectively.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity, this participant is not merely wagering on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xb028b82a80c2d1e855ab4f3cd3a18ecf76838686
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
0xbe78735039230635d5debcdc11400619d7e2c533
Total investment: $28.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart investors have committed $28.2k to “Yes” for “Will “The Backrooms” opening weekend box‑office exceed $79 m?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 82.0%.
0xb028b82a invested $4.0k, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Box‑office, sector net profit $59.0k. In that sector they have 250 settled trades with a win rate of 137/250 (55%), including 75 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $2.0k.
0xecaa8806 invested $22.7k, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Culture, sector net profit $52.6k. In that sector they have 249 settled trades with a win rate of 141/249 (57%), including 118 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751‑$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $5.1k.
0xbe787350 invested $1.5k, with the market’s best‑aligned sector being Box‑office, sector net profit $26.2k. In that sector they have 239 settled trades with a win rate of 126/239 (53%), including 69 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $465.
“The Backrooms” is a horror film released by A24, adapted from the internet‑originated creepypasta of the same name and a YouTube series of faux‑documentary videos. The concept originally revolved around “getting lost in an endless yellow room and fluorescent‑lit hallway,” with the core dread stemming from liminal spaces, empty office environments, and a “no‑clipping”‑style slip into an alternate dimension. The story follows a mysterious entrance that appears in the basement of a furniture store.
Currently, the market’s probability is noticeably higher than most publicly tracked box‑office ranges. Boxoffice Pro forecast on May 27 that “The Backrooms” opening weekend would be $45 m‑$55 m, noting that continued outperformance could push it to about $65 m; Box Office Theory gave an even higher range the same day, $50 m‑$68 m. Even with these optimistic estimates, there remains a gap to the $79 m+ level.
In terms of same‑week competition, “The Backrooms” faces three main rivals: (1) “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” now in its second weekend and still drawing a large family audience; (2) the horror film “Obsession,” in its third weekend and still strong, overlapping with the horror‑genre audience; and (3) the newly released family comedy “Family Keepers” and the World‑War‑II drama “Normandy 72 Hours,” targeting family viewers and adult audiences respectively.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity, this participant is not merely wagering on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xb028b82a80c2d1e855ab4f3cd3a18ecf76838686
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
0xbe78735039230635d5debcdc11400619d7e2c533
Total investment: $28.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $2.7k on “No” for “Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.7k on “No” for “Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 89.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
Apyx is a stablecoin protocol that brings dividend earnings from off‑chain financial assets onto chain. It issues apxUSD, a synthetic US dollar over‑collateralized by preferred shares and other assets issued by firms such as Strategy; users deposit apxUSD into a vault to receive the interest‑bearing version apyUSD, whose yield comes from dividends paid on the underlying preferred shares.
The official Apyx documentation defines APYX as the protocol governance token and explicitly states “APYX is scheduled for TGE on October 13, 2026.” The document also notes that the total APYX supply is fixed at 100 million tokens, and after launch, stakers can share in the growth of the protocol’s reserves.
Note: Based on this trader’s past transaction profile, they are not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opening a position and later taking profit or cutting loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xf0f6b5ac824ea202d312f46e7f701eeae354f699
Total investment: $2.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.7k on “No” for “Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 89.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
Dreamwalker invested $2.7k, with the market’s best correlated sector being cryptocurrency, sector net profit $65.8k. Across 779 settled trades in that sector, their win rate is 559/779 (72%), including 222 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.801‑$0.95), the median historical investment amount is $249, and this investment is 10.9 times that median.
Apyx is a stablecoin protocol that brings dividend earnings from off‑chain financial assets onto chain. It issues apxUSD, a synthetic US dollar over‑collateralized by preferred shares and other assets issued by firms such as Strategy; users deposit apxUSD into a vault to receive the interest‑bearing version apyUSD, whose yield comes from dividends paid on the underlying preferred shares.
The official Apyx documentation defines APYX as the protocol governance token and explicitly states “APYX is scheduled for TGE on October 13, 2026.” The document also notes that the total APYX supply is fixed at 100 million tokens, and after launch, stakers can share in the growth of the protocol’s reserves.
Note: Based on this trader’s past transaction profile, they are not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opening a position and later taking profit or cutting loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xf0f6b5ac824ea202d312f46e7f701eeae354f699
Total investment: $2.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $1.2k on “Yes” for “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.2k on “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 72.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 81.0%.
o1.exchange is an on‑chain trading terminal for the Base / Solana ecosystems, featuring high‑frequency trading infrastructure, token discovery, multi‑wallet management, portfolio tracking, cashback, and point incentives. The project announced a $4.2 million financing round in August 2025, with investors including Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAO. Third‑party data platforms DropsTab / ICO Drops estimate the pre‑valuation for this round at about $42 million, though the official financing announcement did not disclose a valuation.
According to o1’s official documentation, the Points System Season 1.2 runs from January 19, 2026 to June 15, 2026, with the first phase distributing 40 million points over 20 weeks, followed by an additional 2 million points in the final week.
No publicly available material contains an o1‑officially confirmed token launch date.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific time.
Account:
0xac9b386454ed02ef205e0ebd189d8864fd02d4c5
Total investment: $1.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.2k on “Will o1 launch a governance token by June 30, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 72.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 81.0%.
0xac9b3864 invested $1.2k, and the market’s best correlated sector is Cryptocurrency, with a sector net profit of $71.6k. Across 266 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 117/266 (44%), including 83 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.9k.
o1.exchange is an on‑chain trading terminal for the Base / Solana ecosystems, featuring high‑frequency trading infrastructure, token discovery, multi‑wallet management, portfolio tracking, cashback, and point incentives. The project announced a $4.2 million financing round in August 2025, with investors including Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAO. Third‑party data platforms DropsTab / ICO Drops estimate the pre‑valuation for this round at about $42 million, though the official financing announcement did not disclose a valuation.
According to o1’s official documentation, the Points System Season 1.2 runs from January 19, 2026 to June 15, 2026, with the first phase distributing 40 million points over 20 weeks, followed by an additional 2 million points in the final week.
No publicly available material contains an o1‑officially confirmed token launch date.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific time.
Account:
0xac9b386454ed02ef205e0ebd189d8864fd02d4c5
Total investment: $1.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 76.0%.
Today, Axios reported that U.S. Vice President Wants said the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to completing a memorandum of understanding; the proposed arrangement includes extending the current cease‑fire by 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching new negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiators have agreed on the MOU terms; although Trump has not yet signed, sources say he leans toward approval.
Today, a Reuters survey showed that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the official price of oil sold to Asia for the second consecutive month in July: the premium of flagship Arab Light crude over Dubai/Oman benchmarks may fall by $3‑$8 per barrel compared with June. The average premium of cash Dubai crude over swaps in May dropped from $13.92 per barrel in April to $8.90 per barrel, mainly because Chinese refineries reduced processing and imports due to high prices, while the United States increased oil and fuel exports to fill part of the Middle‑East supply gap. This signal, combined with cease‑fire expectations, indicates that the downward pressure on oil is driven not only by a retreat in risk premium but also by genuinely weaker spot demand.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $7.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $7.1k on “Yes” for “Will crude oil (CL) fall to $85 by the end of June?”, with an average purchase probability of 65.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 76.0%.
0xe734e7bf invested $7.1k, with the market’s best correlated sector being Hidden New, sector net profit $343k. Across 78 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 45/78 (58%), including 18 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $20.8k.
Today, Axios reported that U.S. Vice President Wants said the U.S. and Iran are “very close” to completing a memorandum of understanding; the proposed arrangement includes extending the current cease‑fire by 60 days, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching new negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiators have agreed on the MOU terms; although Trump has not yet signed, sources say he leans toward approval.
Today, a Reuters survey showed that Saudi Arabia is expected to lower the official price of oil sold to Asia for the second consecutive month in July: the premium of flagship Arab Light crude over Dubai/Oman benchmarks may fall by $3‑$8 per barrel compared with June. The average premium of cash Dubai crude over swaps in May dropped from $13.92 per barrel in April to $8.90 per barrel, mainly because Chinese refineries reduced processing and imports due to high prices, while the United States increased oil and fuel exports to fill part of the Middle‑East supply gap. This signal, combined with cease‑fire expectations, indicates that the downward pressure on oil is driven not only by a retreat in risk premium but also by genuinely weaker spot demand.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
Total investment: $7.1k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor placed $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
All 8 predictions that Claude 5 would not be released were profitable.
The market’s controversy centers on whether Anthropic’s new model will be officially named Claude 5 or be clearly regarded as the successor to Claude 4. Yesterday, Anthropic officially released Claude Opus 4.8, calling it an upgrade to Opus 4.7. Minor version iterations such as 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 do not meet the “successor” criteria.
In the Opus 4.8 release announcement, Anthropic said it plans to launch a new class of model that is more intelligent than Opus and expects to bring the Mythos‑class model to all customers in the coming weeks. Reuters and Axios reported the same day that Anthropic is preparing to launch the Mythos/Mythos‑class model in the next few weeks.
Community discussion currently focuses on this naming issue: one side believes that the “Mythos‑class model opening in the coming weeks” implies the Claude 5 window is approaching; the other side thinks Anthropic may continue using Mythos or 4.x naming to avoid directly moving to Claude 5.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x19167bff74cadaedf6dd31953a0fd79d86d3b8ed
Total investment: $1.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.5k on “No” for “Will Claude 5 be released by June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 76.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
0x19167bff invested $1.5k, and the market’s best correlated sector is Claude 5, with a sector net profit of $6.3k. In this sector, they have 8 settled trades with a win rate of 8/8 (100%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.701‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $999.
All 8 predictions that Claude 5 would not be released were profitable.
The market’s controversy centers on whether Anthropic’s new model will be officially named Claude 5 or be clearly regarded as the successor to Claude 4. Yesterday, Anthropic officially released Claude Opus 4.8, calling it an upgrade to Opus 4.7. Minor version iterations such as 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 do not meet the “successor” criteria.
In the Opus 4.8 release announcement, Anthropic said it plans to launch a new class of model that is more intelligent than Opus and expects to bring the Mythos‑class model to all customers in the coming weeks. Reuters and Axios reported the same day that Anthropic is preparing to launch the Mythos/Mythos‑class model in the next few weeks.
Community discussion currently focuses on this naming issue: one side believes that the “Mythos‑class model opening in the coming weeks” implies the Claude 5 window is approaching; the other side thinks Anthropic may continue using Mythos or 4.x naming to avoid directly moving to Claude 5.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x19167bff74cadaedf6dd31953a0fd79d86d3b8ed
Total investment: $1.5k
---------------------------------
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1 account invested $8.9k “No” on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $8.9k on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 78.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
This smart money’s 9 trades in the Artificial Intelligence sector all forecast GPT model release dates.
On the 26th, AIBase reported rumors that iris‑alpha appeared in Codex backend logs, focusing on a 1.5 million‑token context, front‑end UI generation capability, and competition with the June model. The report mentioned “Lumen Notes” interface generation examples and speculation that Anthropic, Google, and xAI might launch new models simultaneously; these are community rumors or screenshot‑level information and have not been verified by official documentation.
OpenAI’s official page for tracking model releases still lists at the top “GPT‑5.5 Instant Update (May 28 2026)”, clearly stating the company is updating GPT‑5.5 Instant’s performance in ChatGPT and the API. Subsequent recent model events listed are GPT‑5.4 mini, GPT‑5.3 Instant update, and GPT‑5.2 update, with no public release date, open‑test details, or access link for GPT‑5.6.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at certain points for profit or loss.
Account:
0x0dba1031b49144fc304ceb51b1b4ffbf955371e9
Total investment: $8.9k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $8.9k on “Will GPT‑5.6 be publicly released before June 8 2026?” “No”, with an average purchase probability of 78.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 35.0%.
0x0dba1031 invested $8.9k, with the market’s top related sector being Artificial Intelligence, sector net profit $4.6k. In that sector they have 9 settled trades with a win rate of 7/9 (78%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
This smart money’s 9 trades in the Artificial Intelligence sector all forecast GPT model release dates.
On the 26th, AIBase reported rumors that iris‑alpha appeared in Codex backend logs, focusing on a 1.5 million‑token context, front‑end UI generation capability, and competition with the June model. The report mentioned “Lumen Notes” interface generation examples and speculation that Anthropic, Google, and xAI might launch new models simultaneously; these are community rumors or screenshot‑level information and have not been verified by official documentation.
OpenAI’s official page for tracking model releases still lists at the top “GPT‑5.5 Instant Update (May 28 2026)”, clearly stating the company is updating GPT‑5.5 Instant’s performance in ChatGPT and the API. Subsequent recent model events listed are GPT‑5.4 mini, GPT‑5.3 Instant update, and GPT‑5.2 update, with no public release date, open‑test details, or access link for GPT‑5.6.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at certain points for profit or loss.
Account:
0x0dba1031b49144fc304ceb51b1b4ffbf955371e9
Total investment: $8.9k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor put $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 42.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 58.5%.
The Israeli Parliament faces an early dissolution crisis, sparked by a complete breakdown between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and its ultra‑orthodox allies over religious‑student conscription exemptions. Amid prolonged war and manpower pressures, Israel’s Supreme Court has ordered the advancement of ultra‑orthodox conscription, while the religious party insists on retaining exemptions and rejects the government’s latest proposal. On May 20, the Parliament voted 110‑0 to pass the first reading of a dissolution bill, initiating the early election process. However, the Parliament has not yet been formally dissolved; the bill still requires committee review and three formal readings, and Netanyahu could still delay the process through political deals.
On the 27th, The Israeli Times reported that the dissolution bill must pass three additional readings in a full‑session vote to take effect; the coalition did not push forward immediately after the initial approval, and only after opposition pressure did coalition whip Ofir Katz schedule a discussion and submit the first reading on June 1. The dissolution bill does not set an election date directly but requires the parliamentary committee to determine the date after final passage; the election must be held at least three months and no more than five months after the bill takes effect. Ultra‑orthodox parties hope to move the election to early September, but Netanyahu is reported to oppose this timetable, privately warning that it would “endanger” the right‑wing bloc’s chances.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Total investment: $3.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $3.4k on “No” for “Will the Israeli Parliament be dissolved before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 42.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 58.5%.
0x4e420310 invested $3.4k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $32.4k. In that sector, they have a win rate of 37/50 (74%) across 50 settled trades, including 15 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k.
The Israeli Parliament faces an early dissolution crisis, sparked by a complete breakdown between Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and its ultra‑orthodox allies over religious‑student conscription exemptions. Amid prolonged war and manpower pressures, Israel’s Supreme Court has ordered the advancement of ultra‑orthodox conscription, while the religious party insists on retaining exemptions and rejects the government’s latest proposal. On May 20, the Parliament voted 110‑0 to pass the first reading of a dissolution bill, initiating the early election process. However, the Parliament has not yet been formally dissolved; the bill still requires committee review and three formal readings, and Netanyahu could still delay the process through political deals.
On the 27th, The Israeli Times reported that the dissolution bill must pass three additional readings in a full‑session vote to take effect; the coalition did not push forward immediately after the initial approval, and only after opposition pressure did coalition whip Ofir Katz schedule a discussion and submit the first reading on June 1. The dissolution bill does not set an election date directly but requires the parliamentary committee to determine the date after final passage; the election must be held at least three months and no more than five months after the bill takes effect. Ultra‑orthodox parties hope to move the election to early September, but Netanyahu is reported to oppose this timetable, privately warning that it would “endanger” the right‑wing bloc’s chances.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close the position at a specific point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Total investment: $3.4k
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1 smart money investor put $31.9k on “Yes” for “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $31.9k on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 57.5%.
Paris has scored 44 goals in this season’s Champions League, the most of any team in the tournament, just one short of the single‑season record; in the knockout stage they eliminated Chelsea 8–2, Liverpool 4–0, and Bayern 6–5 in the semifinals. Kylian Mbappé has scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League and added 7 goals and 3 assists, becoming the player with the most knockout‑stage goals this season.
Paris’s opponent Arsenal is 11‑3‑0 in 14 Champions League matches this season, the only unbeaten team in the tournament, also recording nine clean sheets, just one short of the single‑season clean‑sheet record. The two clubs have met seven times in European competition, each winning two and drawing three; last season’s Champions League semifinals saw Paris advance 3–1 on aggregate over Arsenal, winning 1–0 away and 2–1 at home.
Account:
0x7c585894ec02d5ed4fcd118ad8982f859360a5a1
Total investment: $31.9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $31.9k on “Will Paris Saint‑Germain win the 2025–26 Champions League?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 58.0% and a current “Yes” probability of 57.5%.
0x7c585894 invested $31.9k, with the market’s best‑related sector beingsoccer, sector net profit $114k. Across 63 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 34/63 (54%), with 29 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $20.1k.
In the soccer sector’s 50%‑60% cost range, the account completed 12 trades achieving a net profit of about $146k, a win rate of 75.0%, ROI 62.4%, with no take‑profit or stop‑loss actions.
Paris has scored 44 goals in this season’s Champions League, the most of any team in the tournament, just one short of the single‑season record; in the knockout stage they eliminated Chelsea 8–2, Liverpool 4–0, and Bayern 6–5 in the semifinals. Kylian Mbappé has scored 10 goals in this season’s Champions League and added 7 goals and 3 assists, becoming the player with the most knockout‑stage goals this season.
Paris’s opponent Arsenal is 11‑3‑0 in 14 Champions League matches this season, the only unbeaten team in the tournament, also recording nine clean sheets, just one short of the single‑season clean‑sheet record. The two clubs have met seven times in European competition, each winning two and drawing three; last season’s Champions League semifinals saw Paris advance 3–1 on aggregate over Arsenal, winning 1–0 away and 2–1 at home.
Account:
0x7c585894ec02d5ed4fcd118ad8982f859360a5a1
Total investment: $31.9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN