1 smart money investor put $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
KnureKnume invested $1.8k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, a sector net profit of $118k. Across 295 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 148/295 (50%), including 73 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $1.3k.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors have put $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
ScottyNooo invested $15.1k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Israel, sector net profit $513k. In that sector they have 618 settled trades with a win rate of 296/618 (48%), including 45 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $50, and this stake is 301.2 times that median.
0x6d9fc316 invested $1.3k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $231k. In that sector they have 692 settled trades with a win rate of 405/692 (59%), including 195 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $520.
0x162f6fff invested $1.9k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $175k. In that sector they have 310 settled trades with a win rate of 191/310 (62%), including 47 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $354.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 20 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 40.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.5%.
The market rules require that a U.S.–India free trade agreement become law in the United States by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, including Senate approval and presidential signature, or via a congressional‑executive agreement signed by the President.
The Associated Press reported on May 26 at 03:59 UTC that the U.S., Japan, India and Australia foreign ministers were meeting in New Delhi to discuss Indo‑Pacific cooperation, supply chains, and China’s influence; the AP reported on May 25 that U.S. Secretary of State López Obrador, after meetings with Indian Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Sujal Sharma, emphasized cooperation on trade, energy, defense and maritime security and expressed optimism about a broader trade agreement.
Recent developments have indeed been relatively positive. India’s *The Politician* reported on May 24 that Sujal Sharma and López Obrador, after their New Delhi talks, said they would accelerate the completion of a provisional bilateral trade agreement; Sujal Sharma noted that the Indian team had completed a round of discussions in Washington and that the U.S. delegation is expected to travel to India soon to continue negotiations. India’s *The Times of India* reported on May 25 that both sides are seeking to finalize the provisional trade agreement under discussion as soon as possible while expanding cooperation on energy, defense and critical minerals.
The earlier foundation was a framework agreement in February. The White House announced on February 9 that the U.S. and India had declared a “historic trade agreement” framework, with the U.S. reducing reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy, technology, coal and other products, while advancing broader U.S.–India bilateral trade talks. Reuters reported on February 6 that the framework still requires further negotiation to achieve a wider agreement, and India retained protective space in sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 20 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 40.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.5%.
aenews2 invested $1.8k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Politics, sector net profit $5.1M. In that sector, they have a win rate of 1131/1984 (57%) across 1,984 settled trades, including 260 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $817.
The market rules require that a U.S.–India free trade agreement become law in the United States by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, including Senate approval and presidential signature, or via a congressional‑executive agreement signed by the President.
The Associated Press reported on May 26 at 03:59 UTC that the U.S., Japan, India and Australia foreign ministers were meeting in New Delhi to discuss Indo‑Pacific cooperation, supply chains, and China’s influence; the AP reported on May 25 that U.S. Secretary of State López Obrador, after meetings with Indian Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Sujal Sharma, emphasized cooperation on trade, energy, defense and maritime security and expressed optimism about a broader trade agreement.
Recent developments have indeed been relatively positive. India’s *The Politician* reported on May 24 that Sujal Sharma and López Obrador, after their New Delhi talks, said they would accelerate the completion of a provisional bilateral trade agreement; Sujal Sharma noted that the Indian team had completed a round of discussions in Washington and that the U.S. delegation is expected to travel to India soon to continue negotiations. India’s *The Times of India* reported on May 25 that both sides are seeking to finalize the provisional trade agreement under discussion as soon as possible while expanding cooperation on energy, defense and critical minerals.
The earlier foundation was a framework agreement in February. The White House announced on February 9 that the U.S. and India had declared a “historic trade agreement” framework, with the U.S. reducing reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy, technology, coal and other products, while advancing broader U.S.–India bilateral trade talks. Reuters reported on February 6 that the framework still requires further negotiation to achieve a wider agreement, and India retained protective space in sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Predicting the account that earned $216k from the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal changes address, predicts US‑Iran will reach an agreement within 5 days
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $20.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 34.5%, and a current “Yes” probability of 27.0%.
This account is funded by 0x77e4, which previously received funds from Polymarket account 0x18A0 via the intermediary wallet 0xDF70. 0x18A0 previously profited $216k by predicting the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal timing. After cashing out, the account withdrew all funds and has made no further transactions.
Currently, the diplomatic chain points toward a potential agreement: Trump has repeatedly hinted at a near‑term deal, mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar continue to push forward, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Kalibaf has been sent to Qatar for negotiations. Note that settlement of the market on “Yes” requires a clear indication that the US‑Iran military hostility has ended or will cease permanently; extensions of a temporary cease‑fire, negotiation progress, a framework memorandum, or statements lacking an explicit permanent end to hostilities do not satisfy the settlement criteria.
Account:
0xd15b0ef39896105ebca3f2e505cfbd7f6d95cf6d
Total investment: $20.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $20.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 34.5%, and a current “Yes” probability of 27.0%.
This account is funded by 0x77e4, which previously received funds from Polymarket account 0x18A0 via the intermediary wallet 0xDF70. 0x18A0 previously profited $216k by predicting the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal timing. After cashing out, the account withdrew all funds and has made no further transactions.
Currently, the diplomatic chain points toward a potential agreement: Trump has repeatedly hinted at a near‑term deal, mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar continue to push forward, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Kalibaf has been sent to Qatar for negotiations. Note that settlement of the market on “Yes” requires a clear indication that the US‑Iran military hostility has ended or will cease permanently; extensions of a temporary cease‑fire, negotiation progress, a framework memorandum, or statements lacking an explicit permanent end to hostilities do not satisfy the settlement criteria.
Account:
0xd15b0ef39896105ebca3f2e505cfbd7f6d95cf6d
Total investment: $20.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?」the “Yes” probability rose from 27.1% to 35.6%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?” “Yes” probability increased from 27.1% to 35.6%.
The market rules require that before 23:59 UTC on May 31, a clear, widespread and unambiguous restoration of internet connectivity for the majority of Iran’s population, major applications, and general international internet access occurs and lasts for at least 24 hours; or that Cloudflare Radar shows the nationwide outage flag for Iran has not applied to new data for at least 24 hours with traffic clearly rebounding, while NetBlocks reports that the nationwide outage has been lifted or issues an equivalent statement.
Reuters reported on May 25 at 13:53 ET that Iranian President Raisi has ordered the reopening of international internet access, with Iranian state media saying the information came from the communications ministry’s public relations head; the report noted that most Iranians have been unable to access the global internet for 87 consecutive days, with only a few able to bypass restrictions via expensive, high‑end VPNs. Xinhua said on May 26 at 04:23 that Tasnim News Agency reported the order had been forwarded to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and approved by the government’s special cyberspace agency chaired by First Vice President Alireza Aref; the Iranian Students News Agency said the order will take effect on Tuesday.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?” “Yes” probability increased from 27.1% to 35.6%.
The market rules require that before 23:59 UTC on May 31, a clear, widespread and unambiguous restoration of internet connectivity for the majority of Iran’s population, major applications, and general international internet access occurs and lasts for at least 24 hours; or that Cloudflare Radar shows the nationwide outage flag for Iran has not applied to new data for at least 24 hours with traffic clearly rebounding, while NetBlocks reports that the nationwide outage has been lifted or issues an equivalent statement.
Reuters reported on May 25 at 13:53 ET that Iranian President Raisi has ordered the reopening of international internet access, with Iranian state media saying the information came from the communications ministry’s public relations head; the report noted that most Iranians have been unable to access the global internet for 87 consecutive days, with only a few able to bypass restrictions via expensive, high‑end VPNs. Xinhua said on May 26 at 04:23 that Tasnim News Agency reported the order had been forwarded to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and approved by the government’s special cyberspace agency chaired by First Vice President Alireza Aref; the Iranian Students News Agency said the order will take effect on Tuesday.
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors put $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 5.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 96.2%.
The “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect” series of events saw a key settlement shift due to a new round of U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The May 24 sub‑event has been submitted twice as “No,” but both submissions were contested and are now in Final review after the disputes.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, targeting Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a ground‑based air‑defense missile site in Bandar Abbas. According to market rules, a strike on a ship at sea does not count as a ceasefire‑failure condition, but a U.S. strike on an Iranian land missile site is a decisive triggering event.
Therefore, the May 25 sub‑market has now been finally settled as No. At the same time, the May 24 sub‑event remains under review: authoritative reports place the Bandar Abbas land strike at 5 a.m. Eastern Time on May 25, while the military clash reported the day before involved naval fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
The dispute is not about whether the “Yes” side ignored the U.S. strike, but whether sub‑events on different dates can be counted as part of the same event, which depends on when the strike occurred and whether the target was on Iranian soil.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurred; they may close positions with profit‑taking or stop‑loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
Total investment: $19.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 5.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 96.2%.
0xbd0477e0 invested $2.5k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $157k. In that sector they have 76 settled trades with a win rate of 39/76 (51%), including 29 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $97, making this investment 25.6 times that median.
Arbguy invested $7.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $501k. In that sector they have 374 settled trades with a win rate of 145/374 (39%), including 72 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $2.5k.
0xc84f7e76 invested $9.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $148k. In that sector they have 151 settled trades with a win rate of 108/151 (72%), including 12 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $47, making this investment 197.0 times that median.
The “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect” series of events saw a key settlement shift due to a new round of U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The May 24 sub‑event has been submitted twice as “No,” but both submissions were contested and are now in Final review after the disputes.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, targeting Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a ground‑based air‑defense missile site in Bandar Abbas. According to market rules, a strike on a ship at sea does not count as a ceasefire‑failure condition, but a U.S. strike on an Iranian land missile site is a decisive triggering event.
Therefore, the May 25 sub‑market has now been finally settled as No. At the same time, the May 24 sub‑event remains under review: authoritative reports place the Bandar Abbas land strike at 5 a.m. Eastern Time on May 25, while the military clash reported the day before involved naval fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
The dispute is not about whether the “Yes” side ignored the U.S. strike, but whether sub‑events on different dates can be counted as part of the same event, which depends on when the strike occurred and whether the target was on Iranian soil.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurred; they may close positions with profit‑taking or stop‑loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
Total investment: $19.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?” causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?”, with an average purchase probability of 38.1%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%.
On the 23rd, Germany’s Welt am Sonntag cited several NATO diplomats saying doubts have arisen within NATO: whether Trump might skip the July Ankara summit out of dissatisfaction with the alliance. One diplomat said that, although these concerns have not been raised in formal NATO bodies, they have already appeared in “many informal conversations.” The worries are triggered by the United States sending mixed signals on issues such as troop deployments in Europe, the Iran conflict, and whether allies will support the Strait of Hormuz operation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?”, with an average purchase probability of 38.1%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%.
0x152fdae6 invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Trump, sector net profit $156k. Their win rate across 13 settled trades in this sector is 3/13 (23%), with 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
On the 23rd, Germany’s Welt am Sonntag cited several NATO diplomats saying doubts have arisen within NATO: whether Trump might skip the July Ankara summit out of dissatisfaction with the alliance. One diplomat said that, although these concerns have not been raised in formal NATO bodies, they have already appeared in “many informal conversations.” The worries are triggered by the United States sending mixed signals on issues such as troop deployments in Europe, the Iran conflict, and whether allies will support the Strait of Hormuz operation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 27.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
On the 26th, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the United States’ new round of strikes on missile sites and vessels in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province was a “serious violation” of the seven‑week cease‑fire and could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war; at the same time, Rubio noted that the U.S. and Iran had made progress on a preliminary agreement that could end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait, though final wording might still require “a few days” of negotiation.
ABC News reported today that despite the U.S. just striking targets inside Iran, U.S.–Iran war‑ending talks continued on Tuesday in Doha; two U.S. officials said Iran’s senior delegation met with Qatari mediators locally, while Trump‑administration negotiators participated remotely.
A Financial Times column analysis said the emerging core of the U.S.–Iran deal is Iran allowing toll‑free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a phased U.S. easing of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets; Iran may agree to limit its nuclear program, but specific constraints are left for future talks; for Trump, quickly reopening the strait may be more attractive than continuing the war, though the plan could let Iran retain important leverage.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $89.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 27.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
0xc84f7e76 invested $14.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Iran, sector net profit $141k. In that sector they have 138 settled trades with a win rate of 91/138 (66%), including 12 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $663, making this investment 21.5 times that median.
mr.ozi invested $23.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $154k. In that sector they have 465 settled trades with a win rate of 334/465 (72%), including 99 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.
Parz1vaI invested $27.6k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, making this investment 203.5 times that median.
Dropper invested $24.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.0M. In that sector they have 1,163 settled trades with a win rate of 763/1,163 (66%), including 258 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $203, making this investment 119.4 times that median.
On the 26th, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the United States’ new round of strikes on missile sites and vessels in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province was a “serious violation” of the seven‑week cease‑fire and could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war; at the same time, Rubio noted that the U.S. and Iran had made progress on a preliminary agreement that could end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait, though final wording might still require “a few days” of negotiation.
ABC News reported today that despite the U.S. just striking targets inside Iran, U.S.–Iran war‑ending talks continued on Tuesday in Doha; two U.S. officials said Iran’s senior delegation met with Qatari mediators locally, while Trump‑administration negotiators participated remotely.
A Financial Times column analysis said the emerging core of the U.S.–Iran deal is Iran allowing toll‑free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a phased U.S. easing of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets; Iran may agree to limit its nuclear program, but specific constraints are left for future talks; for Trump, quickly reopening the strait may be more attractive than continuing the war, though the plan could let Iran retain important leverage.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $89.4k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor put $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.2% and a current “Yes” probability of 40.5%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the incumbent Brazilian president seeking re‑election and one of the core figures of Brazil’s left‑wing politics. He served two terms from 2003‑2010, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, and was re‑installed in 2023; this term runs until the new president takes office in 2027.
The 2026 Brazilian election has two rounds. The first round is on October 4, and on that day the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will conduct electronic counting and continuously release results. If a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the winner is usually known that night; if no one reaches a majority, the final winner will be determined after the second round on October 25.
Lula’s main rival is Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro and a current senator from Rio de Janeiro state. His father cannot run directly and publicly backs Flávio’s candidacy. Flávio is generally positioned as a right‑wing conservative, but he tries to present himself as a milder, more business‑friendly version of his father: advocating tax cuts, reduced public spending, privatization, stronger security, and maintaining close ties with the Trump camp. Recently, Flávio faced a major political crisis involving a financing dispute linked to a banker imprisoned for fraud.
Reuters reported today that, amid the political crisis, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the White House to meet Trump, seeking to stem voter loss caused by his attempt to secure film financing from the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro. Reuters explicitly wrote that the scandal has “weakened his competitiveness against incumbent left‑wing President Lula in recent polls.” Meanwhile, after meeting Lula earlier this month, Trump described him as “very energetic” and said the meeting was “very smooth.” Currently, Flávio remains in a defensive loss‑cutting mode, while Lula continues to benefit from his opponent’s crisis.
After meeting Trump, Flávio stated clearly: “Trump has not announced support for me, and I did not ask for it.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total investment: $328.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.2% and a current “Yes” probability of 40.5%.
0xbc75cabb invested $328k, with the market’s best related sector being Brazil, sector net profit $22.2k. In this sector, they have 6 settled trades with a win rate of 4/6 (67%); there are 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.401‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $9.4k, and this investment is 35.0 times that median.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the incumbent Brazilian president seeking re‑election and one of the core figures of Brazil’s left‑wing politics. He served two terms from 2003‑2010, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, and was re‑installed in 2023; this term runs until the new president takes office in 2027.
The 2026 Brazilian election has two rounds. The first round is on October 4, and on that day the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will conduct electronic counting and continuously release results. If a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the winner is usually known that night; if no one reaches a majority, the final winner will be determined after the second round on October 25.
Lula’s main rival is Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro and a current senator from Rio de Janeiro state. His father cannot run directly and publicly backs Flávio’s candidacy. Flávio is generally positioned as a right‑wing conservative, but he tries to present himself as a milder, more business‑friendly version of his father: advocating tax cuts, reduced public spending, privatization, stronger security, and maintaining close ties with the Trump camp. Recently, Flávio faced a major political crisis involving a financing dispute linked to a banker imprisoned for fraud.
Reuters reported today that, amid the political crisis, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the White House to meet Trump, seeking to stem voter loss caused by his attempt to secure film financing from the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro. Reuters explicitly wrote that the scandal has “weakened his competitiveness against incumbent left‑wing President Lula in recent polls.” Meanwhile, after meeting Lula earlier this month, Trump described him as “very energetic” and said the meeting was “very smooth.” Currently, Flávio remains in a defensive loss‑cutting mode, while Lula continues to benefit from his opponent’s crisis.
After meeting Trump, Flávio stated clearly: “Trump has not announced support for me, and I did not ask for it.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total investment: $328.1k
---------------------------------
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2 smart money investors put $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 79.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 25.5%.
On the 20th, several drones believed to be linked to Ukrainian long‑range attacks entered or approached the airspace of Baltic states: a suspected Ukrainian drone was shot down by NATO aircraft over Estonia; Lithuania then experienced a similar airspace incident, with Vilnius air traffic briefly halted and legislators forced to take shelter underground; on May 21, Latvia and Lithuania again issued drone alerts, NATO aircraft scrambled to search for or intercept the targets, and the Latvian military said a drone was confirmed to have crossed the border from the direction of Belarus into Latvia.
On the 26th, Reuters reported that NATO plans to adjust the command structure in the Baltic region, assigning a German‑Dutch corps to the Latvia and Estonia directions to enable faster troop deployment should war break out in the future; a full corps can typically support 40,000‑60,000 soldiers, but in peacetime it retains mainly command, artillery, air‑defense, engineering and medical capabilities. This arrangement addresses rapid‑response needs “in the event of a war with Russia,” though it is unclear when it will take effect or how many troops will be assigned.
The event rules specifically exclude airspace violations, warning shots, cyber attacks, and NATO interceptions of attack‑type drones or missiles aimed at third parties; only a direct use of force between NATO member forces and Russian forces would settle as “Yes.” This means that even though Baltic tensions are clearly rising, as long as NATO continues to respond with interception, alertness, and deployment rather than firing directly at Russian forces, “No” remains supported by the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x11fcbba836d927c5fe6e6a6a64c9c0461e33dc48
0x57b00c3ccef1b6bd6962fb9ca463c4e0b38e76f4
Total investment: $46.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 79.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 25.5%.
0x11fcbba8 invested $45.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Ukraine, sector net profit $67.2k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 17/28 (61%); 4 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $3.0k, and this investment is 14.8 times that median.
vantadel-lunae invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $36.5k. In that sector they have 1,033 settled trades with a win rate of 864/1,033 (84%); 123 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $159.
On the 20th, several drones believed to be linked to Ukrainian long‑range attacks entered or approached the airspace of Baltic states: a suspected Ukrainian drone was shot down by NATO aircraft over Estonia; Lithuania then experienced a similar airspace incident, with Vilnius air traffic briefly halted and legislators forced to take shelter underground; on May 21, Latvia and Lithuania again issued drone alerts, NATO aircraft scrambled to search for or intercept the targets, and the Latvian military said a drone was confirmed to have crossed the border from the direction of Belarus into Latvia.
On the 26th, Reuters reported that NATO plans to adjust the command structure in the Baltic region, assigning a German‑Dutch corps to the Latvia and Estonia directions to enable faster troop deployment should war break out in the future; a full corps can typically support 40,000‑60,000 soldiers, but in peacetime it retains mainly command, artillery, air‑defense, engineering and medical capabilities. This arrangement addresses rapid‑response needs “in the event of a war with Russia,” though it is unclear when it will take effect or how many troops will be assigned.
The event rules specifically exclude airspace violations, warning shots, cyber attacks, and NATO interceptions of attack‑type drones or missiles aimed at third parties; only a direct use of force between NATO member forces and Russian forces would settle as “Yes.” This means that even though Baltic tensions are clearly rising, as long as NATO continues to respond with interception, alertness, and deployment rather than firing directly at Russian forces, “No” remains supported by the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x11fcbba836d927c5fe6e6a6a64c9c0461e33dc48
0x57b00c3ccef1b6bd6962fb9ca463c4e0b38e76f4
Total investment: $46.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 15.2%.
Alberta is in western Canada, its economy is heavily dependent on oil, natural gas, and oil‑sand resources, making it one of the most oil‑rich provinces in Canada. Over the past decade, many conservative voters in the province have felt that the federal government in Ottawa benefits from Alberta’s energy economy while suppressing the province’s development through environmental regulations, carbon policies, production limits, and pipeline approvals. This sentiment is often described as “Western alienation” in Canada.
The current premier, Danielle Smith, belongs to the right‑leaning United Conservative Party (UCP). She has long argued that Alberta should reclaim more autonomy from the federal government. She emphasizes that the provincial government seeks “to build a strong, sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” In December 2025, a separatist group called Stay Free Alberta launched an independence petition, which was later halted by the courts, but Premier Smith continued to push for a vote, even though she has publicly stated her opposition to independence.
Reuters reported on the 25th that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Cano compared Alberta’s proposed non‑binding vote to the UK’s Brexit and warned that supporters might mistakenly view it as a cost‑free bargaining chip. Cano said, “On this separatist issue, people often say that voting for it is a free option that can strengthen negotiating leverage later; this is a very dangerous bluff.” Reuters also cited the latest Angus Reid data showing that 60% of Alberta voters would vote to stay in Canada in October, and if a direct independence referendum were ever held, 67% would vote against secession.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 15.2%.
0x52071e89 invested $5.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $8.8k. Across 94 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 76/94 (81%), with 50 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $498, making this investment 10.3 times that median.
Alberta is in western Canada, its economy is heavily dependent on oil, natural gas, and oil‑sand resources, making it one of the most oil‑rich provinces in Canada. Over the past decade, many conservative voters in the province have felt that the federal government in Ottawa benefits from Alberta’s energy economy while suppressing the province’s development through environmental regulations, carbon policies, production limits, and pipeline approvals. This sentiment is often described as “Western alienation” in Canada.
The current premier, Danielle Smith, belongs to the right‑leaning United Conservative Party (UCP). She has long argued that Alberta should reclaim more autonomy from the federal government. She emphasizes that the provincial government seeks “to build a strong, sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” In December 2025, a separatist group called Stay Free Alberta launched an independence petition, which was later halted by the courts, but Premier Smith continued to push for a vote, even though she has publicly stated her opposition to independence.
Reuters reported on the 25th that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Cano compared Alberta’s proposed non‑binding vote to the UK’s Brexit and warned that supporters might mistakenly view it as a cost‑free bargaining chip. Cano said, “On this separatist issue, people often say that voting for it is a free option that can strengthen negotiating leverage later; this is a very dangerous bluff.” Reuters also cited the latest Angus Reid data showing that 60% of Alberta voters would vote to stay in Canada in October, and if a direct independence referendum were ever held, 67% would vote against secession.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”, with an average buy‑in probability of 41.2%; the current “Yes” probability is 61.5%.
Extended is a perpetual‑contract DEX built by a former Revolut team, previously known as X10, which raised $6.5 M during the testnet phase. The official Points page shows that Season 1 began on April 29 2025, with reward distribution and end date still to be determined. DeFiLlama currently lists Extended’s TVL at roughly $151.5 M, with 24‑hour fees around $76 k.
Extended’s founder is former Revolut crypto‑business head Ruslan Fakhrutdinov; investors include Tioga Capital, Semantic Ventures, Cherry Ventures, StarkWare, Cyber Fund, as well as Revolut executives and Lido co‑founder Konstantin Lomashuk among other angel investors.
To date, public sources have not disclosed Extended’s official token economics, total supply, initial circulation, vesting schedule, or TGE date.
Account:
0xc7e46445a6eeaad4dbbcd3fde912784e2ae7f5b8
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”, with an average buy‑in probability of 41.2%; the current “Yes” probability is 61.5%.
Extended is a perpetual‑contract DEX built by a former Revolut team, previously known as X10, which raised $6.5 M during the testnet phase. The official Points page shows that Season 1 began on April 29 2025, with reward distribution and end date still to be determined. DeFiLlama currently lists Extended’s TVL at roughly $151.5 M, with 24‑hour fees around $76 k.
Extended’s founder is former Revolut crypto‑business head Ruslan Fakhrutdinov; investors include Tioga Capital, Semantic Ventures, Cherry Ventures, StarkWare, Cyber Fund, as well as Revolut executives and Lido co‑founder Konstantin Lomashuk among other angel investors.
To date, public sources have not disclosed Extended’s official token economics, total supply, initial circulation, vesting schedule, or TGE date.
Account:
0xc7e46445a6eeaad4dbbcd3fde912784e2ae7f5b8
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
U.S. Southern Command said on May 26 that the Southern Spear Joint Task Force carried out a lethal kinetic strike in the East Pacific against a vessel operated by a “designated terrorist organization” traveling along a known drug‑smuggling route, resulting in 1 death and 2 survivors. The Associated Press reported on May 27 that the Trump administration has been targeting suspected drug‑smuggling ships in Latin American waters since September of last year, causing at least 194 deaths to date.
This news did not push the market close to settlement; the key is that the market’s rules require U.S. government personnel—including the military, DEA, CIA, or other agencies—to directly participate on foreign soil in anti‑drug‑cartel actions before the specified deadline, or to conduct kinetic strikes against cartels on foreign territory. The most common U.S. involvement in cross‑border anti‑cartel operations so far has been CIA intelligence, DEA coordination, drone surveillance, logistical support, advisory roles, and Mexico‑led raids, none of which generally satisfy the market’s settlement criteria. The Mexican government repeatedly emphasizes sovereignty and acknowledges that the diplomatic cost of U.S. military or CIA direct action on Mexican soil would be very high.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.0k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $26.5k. Across 223 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 163/223 (73%), including 51 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k.
U.S. Southern Command said on May 26 that the Southern Spear Joint Task Force carried out a lethal kinetic strike in the East Pacific against a vessel operated by a “designated terrorist organization” traveling along a known drug‑smuggling route, resulting in 1 death and 2 survivors. The Associated Press reported on May 27 that the Trump administration has been targeting suspected drug‑smuggling ships in Latin American waters since September of last year, causing at least 194 deaths to date.
This news did not push the market close to settlement; the key is that the market’s rules require U.S. government personnel—including the military, DEA, CIA, or other agencies—to directly participate on foreign soil in anti‑drug‑cartel actions before the specified deadline, or to conduct kinetic strikes against cartels on foreign territory. The most common U.S. involvement in cross‑border anti‑cartel operations so far has been CIA intelligence, DEA coordination, drone surveillance, logistical support, advisory roles, and Mexico‑led raids, none of which generally satisfy the market’s settlement criteria. The Mexican government repeatedly emphasizes sovereignty and acknowledges that the diplomatic cost of U.S. military or CIA direct action on Mexican soil would be very high.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors in 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」 invested $227.5k「No」
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $227.5k on 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」」 with “No”, the average purchase probability was 75.7%, and the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
Spencer Pratt is a television personality from the reality show “The Hills.” After a 2025 fire destroyed his home, he turned his frustration with the city’s fire response, homelessness management, and public safety into a mayoral campaign. CBS released new video segments on May 27 featuring a Pratt interview discussing his motivation, first debate performance, and lack of political experience; Fox News aired a video on May 27 with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy commenting on Pratt’s campaign, emphasizing his enthusiasm and reasons.
Pratt’s opponent, Karen Bass, is the incumbent Los Angeles mayor and former U.S. Representative, a mainstream Democratic politician. Her campaign focuses on re‑election, emphasizing homelessness, public safety, fire recovery, and federal pressure. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 22 that Pratt raised $2.72 M between April 19 and May 16, while Bass raised about $283 k in the same period; Pratt’s total fundraising is $3.26 M, slightly ahead of Bass’s $3.13 M, with cash on hand around $1.42 M.
An Emerson College poll on May 13 showed Bass at 30% and Pratt at 22%. In June 2025 the Trump administration sued Los Angeles and Bass, challenging the city’s sanctuary policies; Bass labeled the federal immigration raid a “full‑scale attack” on Los Angeles. Meanwhile, on May 20 Trump publicly expressed hope that Spencer Pratt would perform well. Although the Los Angeles Times said this was not an official endorsement, it positions Pratt as a “Trump‑aligned/anti‑Bass” candidate. This can bring national right‑wing attention to Pratt, but in heavily Democratic Los Angeles it may also help Bass mobilize anti‑Trump voters.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not simply betting on the event’s outcome but may open and close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b
Total investment: $227.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $227.5k on 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」」 with “No”, the average purchase probability was 75.7%, and the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
aenews2 invested $104k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $5.1M. In that sector they have 1,984 settled trades with a win rate of 1,131/1,984 (57%); 260 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $3.6k, and this investment is 28.9 times that median.
WordleAddict invested $124k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $379k. In that sector they have 1,417 settled trades with a win rate of 626/1,417 (44%); 291 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k, and this investment is 103.0 times that median.
Spencer Pratt is a television personality from the reality show “The Hills.” After a 2025 fire destroyed his home, he turned his frustration with the city’s fire response, homelessness management, and public safety into a mayoral campaign. CBS released new video segments on May 27 featuring a Pratt interview discussing his motivation, first debate performance, and lack of political experience; Fox News aired a video on May 27 with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy commenting on Pratt’s campaign, emphasizing his enthusiasm and reasons.
Pratt’s opponent, Karen Bass, is the incumbent Los Angeles mayor and former U.S. Representative, a mainstream Democratic politician. Her campaign focuses on re‑election, emphasizing homelessness, public safety, fire recovery, and federal pressure. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 22 that Pratt raised $2.72 M between April 19 and May 16, while Bass raised about $283 k in the same period; Pratt’s total fundraising is $3.26 M, slightly ahead of Bass’s $3.13 M, with cash on hand around $1.42 M.
An Emerson College poll on May 13 showed Bass at 30% and Pratt at 22%. In June 2025 the Trump administration sued Los Angeles and Bass, challenging the city’s sanctuary policies; Bass labeled the federal immigration raid a “full‑scale attack” on Los Angeles. Meanwhile, on May 20 Trump publicly expressed hope that Spencer Pratt would perform well. Although the Los Angeles Times said this was not an official endorsement, it positions Pratt as a “Trump‑aligned/anti‑Bass” candidate. This can bring national right‑wing attention to Pratt, but in heavily Democratic Los Angeles it may also help Bass mobilize anti‑Trump voters.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not simply betting on the event’s outcome but may open and close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b
Total investment: $227.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors have put $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 21.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.5%.
Today, a U.S. official confirmed that while negotiations to end the U.S.–Iran war are ongoing, the U.S. launched a previously undisclosed round of strikes against Iran: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one‑way attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz and struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. The official said, “These actions were measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the cease‑fire.”
The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday night the Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is accused of approving passage through the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships up to $2 million. Prior to the sanctions, U.S. forces had just struck Iranian military facilities after downing the attack drones; Trump, while claiming the agreement may be near, also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain fully in effect until the agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”
Today, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy political deputy commander Mohammad Akbarzadeh said the likelihood of war breaking out again with the United States is “low,” even though Iranian forces remain on alert.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $101.8k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 21.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.5%.
0xc84f7e76 invested $73.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $153k. In that sector they have 155 settled trades with a win rate of 109/155 (70%), including 13 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k, and this stake is 31.7 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $28.5k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, and this stake is 209.9 times that median.
Today, a U.S. official confirmed that while negotiations to end the U.S.–Iran war are ongoing, the U.S. launched a previously undisclosed round of strikes against Iran: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one‑way attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz and struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. The official said, “These actions were measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the cease‑fire.”
The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday night the Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is accused of approving passage through the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships up to $2 million. Prior to the sanctions, U.S. forces had just struck Iranian military facilities after downing the attack drones; Trump, while claiming the agreement may be near, also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain fully in effect until the agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”
Today, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy political deputy commander Mohammad Akbarzadeh said the likelihood of war breaking out again with the United States is “low,” even though Iranian forces remain on alert.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $101.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Update: The second‑place Polymarket insider was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice, and this channel reported on their trades last December
The U.S. Department of Justice Southern District of New York announced on May 27 that Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo is charged with commodity fraud, telecommunications fraud, and money laundering for allegedly using non‑public Google search‑trend data to trade Google annual‑search‑related markets on Polymarket and profit over $1.2 million.
Our channel noted last December, after the settlement of “Who will be the top‑ranked Google search figure of 2025?”, that 0xafEe bought “Yes” when the probability for one of the optional choices, d4vd, was near zero, then kept buying “No” as Pope Leo XIV, the long‑standing leader of the top‑ranked list, remained at probability 1, and maintained an unusually high win rate across multiple Google search‑trend and Gemini product‑release markets. At the time we concluded this was not a typical “small‑stake, big‑gain” position but rather resembled trading on insider information from Google.
The Justice Department says Spagnuolo had access to an internal tool marked “Google Confidential”; the tool contains Google’s annual search results and underlying search‑trend data.
Account:
0xee50a31c3f5a7c77824b12a941a54388a2827ed6
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The U.S. Department of Justice Southern District of New York announced on May 27 that Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo is charged with commodity fraud, telecommunications fraud, and money laundering for allegedly using non‑public Google search‑trend data to trade Google annual‑search‑related markets on Polymarket and profit over $1.2 million.
Spagnuolo made a total profit of $1.26 m on 25 Google‑related trades with zero losses, 23 of which were tied to Google search rankings and the remaining 2 predicting the Gemini 3.0 release date.
Our channel noted last December, after the settlement of “Who will be the top‑ranked Google search figure of 2025?”, that 0xafEe bought “Yes” when the probability for one of the optional choices, d4vd, was near zero, then kept buying “No” as Pope Leo XIV, the long‑standing leader of the top‑ranked list, remained at probability 1, and maintained an unusually high win rate across multiple Google search‑trend and Gemini product‑release markets. At the time we concluded this was not a typical “small‑stake, big‑gain” position but rather resembled trading on insider information from Google.
The Justice Department says Spagnuolo had access to an internal tool marked “Google Confidential”; the tool contains Google’s annual search results and underlying search‑trend data.
Account:
0xee50a31c3f5a7c77824b12a941a54388a2827ed6
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” – “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.1%.
The new account has made 2 predictions in total; the first prediction, made 15 days ago, was “MicroStrategy will sell any Bitcoin before June,” which was stopped out 5 days ago, resulting in a loss of $15k.
On the 27th, Investor’s Business Daily analyzed that Strategy recently repurchased $1.38 billion in cash of $1.5 billion face‑value 2029 convertible bonds. Although the company described the transaction as improving its credit structure and raising the Bitcoin‑per‑share metric, the cost was a drop in its dollar reserves to only $871 million, enough to cover roughly 6.1 months of interest and preferred‑stock dividend obligations. This deal temporarily avoided a Bitcoin sale, but the company must now replenish its cash reserves; if financing conditions for MSTR common stock or STRC preferred stock worsen further, selling Bitcoin could shift from a theoretical option to an actual liquidity tool.
Account:
0xe32f0d8b087faa6cce0f6fdacb3264dece06ce26
Total investment: $24.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $24.5k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” for “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.1%.
The new account has made 2 predictions in total; the first prediction, made 15 days ago, was “MicroStrategy will sell any Bitcoin before June,” which was stopped out 5 days ago, resulting in a loss of $15k.
On the 27th, Investor’s Business Daily analyzed that Strategy recently repurchased $1.38 billion in cash of $1.5 billion face‑value 2029 convertible bonds. Although the company described the transaction as improving its credit structure and raising the Bitcoin‑per‑share metric, the cost was a drop in its dollar reserves to only $871 million, enough to cover roughly 6.1 months of interest and preferred‑stock dividend obligations. This deal temporarily avoided a Bitcoin sale, but the company must now replenish its cash reserves; if financing conditions for MSTR common stock or STRC preferred stock worsen further, selling Bitcoin could shift from a theoretical option to an actual liquidity tool.
Account:
0xe32f0d8b087faa6cce0f6fdacb3264dece06ce26
Total investment: $24.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?」the “Yes” probability rose from 48% to 85.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?” “Yes” probability increased from 48% to 85.5%.
The market’s rules require Trump to actually file or re‑file a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal within this month; a new suit or an amended complaint that contains new or revised claims counts, but appeals, motions for reconsideration, mere threats to sue, or statements of intent to sue do not count.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida dismissed Trump’s defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, News Corp., Rupert Murdoch and other defendants on April 13, issuing a “without prejudice” dismissal, which allows Trump to submit an amended complaint. Trump’s team then sought limited discovery before rewriting the complaint, hoping to find evidence that the defendants acted with “actual malice.”
On May 22, the court’s amended order denied Trump’s request for discovery, finding that without a qualifying complaint the plaintiff cannot use the discovery process to bolster the case; however, the court agreed to extend the deadline for the amended complaint, explicitly requiring Trump to file the amended complaint on or before May 27.
The case stems from a Wall Street Journal report about Trump’s connection to Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents show that the WSJ reported in 2025 that a birthday album for Epstein’s 50th birthday contained a purportedly explicit letter bearing Trump’s name; Trump denied the letter’s authenticity and filed a lawsuit against the WSJ and related defendants in July 2025.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Trump re‑file a lawsuit against the WSJ before May 31?” “Yes” probability increased from 48% to 85.5%.
The market’s rules require Trump to actually file or re‑file a lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal within this month; a new suit or an amended complaint that contains new or revised claims counts, but appeals, motions for reconsideration, mere threats to sue, or statements of intent to sue do not count.
The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida dismissed Trump’s defamation suit against the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, News Corp., Rupert Murdoch and other defendants on April 13, issuing a “without prejudice” dismissal, which allows Trump to submit an amended complaint. Trump’s team then sought limited discovery before rewriting the complaint, hoping to find evidence that the defendants acted with “actual malice.”
On May 22, the court’s amended order denied Trump’s request for discovery, finding that without a qualifying complaint the plaintiff cannot use the discovery process to bolster the case; however, the court agreed to extend the deadline for the amended complaint, explicitly requiring Trump to file the amended complaint on or before May 27.
The case stems from a Wall Street Journal report about Trump’s connection to Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents show that the WSJ reported in 2025 that a birthday album for Epstein’s 50th birthday contained a purportedly explicit letter bearing Trump’s name; Trump denied the letter’s authenticity and filed a lawsuit against the WSJ and related defendants in July 2025.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?」 “Yes” probability rose from 5.8% to 17.9%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Yes” probability for “Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?” rose from 5.8% to 17.9%.
Semafor reported at 18:23 ET on May 27 that CNBC said Musk had discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla with colleagues; the report also noted that SpaceX is only weeks away from an anticipated Nasdaq listing, reviving merger talks. Advanced Television on May 27 also quoted CNBC, stating that the two companies already have extensive operational overlap, with market observers describing them as “largely separate on paper” in many respects.
The broader recent context is the SpaceX IPO. CBS reported on May 21 that SpaceX has filed for a listing, planning to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and disclosed projected 2025 revenue of about $18.7 B with a loss of roughly $2.6 B; CBS also noted that Wedbush analysts think Musk may want further control of the AI ecosystem and could eventually link SpaceX and Tesla in some way. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation said on the same day that SpaceX could list as early as mid‑June, with a fundraising target that could set a record, and that Musk would retain majority voting rights after the IPO.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Yes” probability for “Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before June 30?” rose from 5.8% to 17.9%.
Semafor reported at 18:23 ET on May 27 that CNBC said Musk had discussed merging SpaceX with Tesla with colleagues; the report also noted that SpaceX is only weeks away from an anticipated Nasdaq listing, reviving merger talks. Advanced Television on May 27 also quoted CNBC, stating that the two companies already have extensive operational overlap, with market observers describing them as “largely separate on paper” in many respects.
The broader recent context is the SpaceX IPO. CBS reported on May 21 that SpaceX has filed for a listing, planning to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, and disclosed projected 2025 revenue of about $18.7 B with a loss of roughly $2.6 B; CBS also noted that Wedbush analysts think Musk may want further control of the AI ecosystem and could eventually link SpaceX and Tesla in some way. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation said on the same day that SpaceX could list as early as mid‑June, with a fundraising target that could set a record, and that Musk would retain majority voting rights after the IPO.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
“Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” market rejected seconds after proposal launch
On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the “Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” “Yes” proposal was rejected 1 minute after it was launched. The current probability of “Yes” is 87%.
The Associated Press reported on May 27 that Iranians, after months of being cut off, have begun to regain internet access, but service remains slow and unstable, and apps such as YouTube and Instagram are still heavily restricted. The AP cited NetBlocks, noting that Iran’s connectivity has recovered to roughly 86% of pre‑shutdown levels; however, Kentik data shows actual internet traffic at about 40%, and cybersecurity analyst Amir Rashidi says it is still too early to declare the shutdown over.
Cloudflare’s official blog said on May 27 that around 11:00 UTC on May 26, Cloudflare Radar observed a noticeable rise in Iranian traffic and DNS queries, indicating a “partial restoration” in progress; yet at the May 26 peak, traffic only returned to about 40% of the highest level observed in 2026, with the new traffic heavily concentrated in Tehran and IPv6 still barely restored. Cloudflare also warned that a brief recovery in January was followed by another decline, so it remains to be seen whether traffic will stabilize at pre‑shutdown baselines in the coming days.
The political trigger was President Pezeshkian’s order to restore international internet access. Reuters reported on May 25 that the Iranian president had ordered the reopening of international internet access; Iran International further reported on May 25 that a Revolutionary Guard‑linked media outlet questioned whether the president had the authority to make the decision unilaterally, as the internet restriction was imposed by the Supreme National Security Council, which theoretically should also lift it. Reports re‑posted by Al Jazeera/AFP also noted that Iran’s administrative court later suspended the president’s decision to create a new network‑governance body, leaving “whether the restoration will endure” still subject to institutional risk.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, the “Iran’s internet access will be restored by December 31” “Yes” proposal was rejected 1 minute after it was launched. The current probability of “Yes” is 87%.
Proposal initiator proposal win rate 100.0% (24/24), Iran sector win rate 100.0% (4/4)
Dispute initiator dispute win rate 50.0% (7/14), Iran sector dispute win rate 100.0% (2/2)
The Associated Press reported on May 27 that Iranians, after months of being cut off, have begun to regain internet access, but service remains slow and unstable, and apps such as YouTube and Instagram are still heavily restricted. The AP cited NetBlocks, noting that Iran’s connectivity has recovered to roughly 86% of pre‑shutdown levels; however, Kentik data shows actual internet traffic at about 40%, and cybersecurity analyst Amir Rashidi says it is still too early to declare the shutdown over.
Cloudflare’s official blog said on May 27 that around 11:00 UTC on May 26, Cloudflare Radar observed a noticeable rise in Iranian traffic and DNS queries, indicating a “partial restoration” in progress; yet at the May 26 peak, traffic only returned to about 40% of the highest level observed in 2026, with the new traffic heavily concentrated in Tehran and IPv6 still barely restored. Cloudflare also warned that a brief recovery in January was followed by another decline, so it remains to be seen whether traffic will stabilize at pre‑shutdown baselines in the coming days.
The political trigger was President Pezeshkian’s order to restore international internet access. Reuters reported on May 25 that the Iranian president had ordered the reopening of international internet access; Iran International further reported on May 25 that a Revolutionary Guard‑linked media outlet questioned whether the president had the authority to make the decision unilaterally, as the internet restriction was imposed by the Supreme National Security Council, which theoretically should also lift it. Reports re‑posted by Al Jazeera/AFP also noted that Iran’s administrative court later suspended the president’s decision to create a new network‑governance body, leaving “whether the restoration will endure” still subject to institutional risk.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, with an average purchase probability of 3.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 3.9%.
On the 27th, AP reported that the Netherlands retained its frontline core before the World Cup: national team’s all‑time leading scorer Memphis Depay returned to Ronald Koeman’s 26‑man squad after recovering from injury, having scored 55 goals for the Netherlands; even if Depay cannot immediately resume a starting role, Koeman still has in‑form Roma striker Donyell Malen as a frontline alternative. AP also noted that the Netherlands currently sits seventh in the FIFA rankings, and Koeman’s assessment of the team is: “We can go far, and this is a team that is hard to beat.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x966cd85371117d811aab6e6f2b98377433659b1a
Total investment: $24.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $24.1k on “Yes” for “Will the Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?”, with an average purchase probability of 3.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 3.9%.
0x966cd853 invested $24.1k, with the market’s best related sector being soccer, sector net profit $441k. Across 118 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 72/118 (61%), with 66 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k, and this investment is 22.9 times that median.
On the 27th, AP reported that the Netherlands retained its frontline core before the World Cup: national team’s all‑time leading scorer Memphis Depay returned to Ronald Koeman’s 26‑man squad after recovering from injury, having scored 55 goals for the Netherlands; even if Depay cannot immediately resume a starting role, Koeman still has in‑form Roma striker Donyell Malen as a frontline alternative. AP also noted that the Netherlands currently sits seventh in the FIFA rankings, and Koeman’s assessment of the team is: “We can go far, and this is a team that is hard to beat.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0x966cd85371117d811aab6e6f2b98377433659b1a
Total investment: $24.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN