1 smart money investor placed $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7%; the current “Yes” probability is 48.5%.
The market rules require the MetaMask token to be publicly available, transferable, and tradable, and to have a fully diluted valuation above $100 M at “the next calendar day 4 PM ET after launch” for the outcome to settle as “Yes”. If MetaMask has not launched a qualifying token by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the outcome settles as “No”.
As of May 25, MetaMask still separates MetaMask Rewards from “MASK”, stating that Rewards are incentives tied to partnership activities and noting that there is currently no “MASK” token plan. Rumors of a native MetaMask token have persisted for years; ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin said in 2025 that a MetaMask token will arrive, possibly sooner than expected.
CoinDesk reported on May 13 that ConsenSys has pushed a potential IPO back to as early as this fall; the article said the company had originally planned to file a confidential S‑1 with the U.S. SEC around the end of February. CoinDesk also noted that ConsenSys was valued at $7 B after completing a $450 M Series D round in 2022 and had previously hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to assist with the IPO process.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening a position.
Account:
0x993f451b6d5c21996b1bf688493cea9c4c823ee3
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7%; the current “Yes” probability is 48.5%.
0x993f451b invested $3.0k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Cryptocurrency, which has a net profit of $52.5k. Across 91 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 68/91 (75%); 27 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $2.7k.
The market rules require the MetaMask token to be publicly available, transferable, and tradable, and to have a fully diluted valuation above $100 M at “the next calendar day 4 PM ET after launch” for the outcome to settle as “Yes”. If MetaMask has not launched a qualifying token by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the outcome settles as “No”.
As of May 25, MetaMask still separates MetaMask Rewards from “MASK”, stating that Rewards are incentives tied to partnership activities and noting that there is currently no “MASK” token plan. Rumors of a native MetaMask token have persisted for years; ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin said in 2025 that a MetaMask token will arrive, possibly sooner than expected.
CoinDesk reported on May 13 that ConsenSys has pushed a potential IPO back to as early as this fall; the article said the company had originally planned to file a confidential S‑1 with the U.S. SEC around the end of February. CoinDesk also noted that ConsenSys was valued at $7 B after completing a $450 M Series D round in 2022 and had previously hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to assist with the IPO process.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening a position.
Account:
0x993f451b6d5c21996b1bf688493cea9c4c823ee3
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The newly launched market estimates a 50‑50 outlook for the upcoming US‑Iran situation
On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before the ceasefire ends?” market that went live yesterday currently shows a “Yes” probability of 51%.
The rules define a “permanent peace agreement” as a clear statement that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will cease permanently, or language equivalent to “a long‑term end to military hostilities.” Temporary accords, phased arrangements, extensions of a two‑week or 60‑day ceasefire, merely saying “negotiations continue” or “progress is made” do not satisfy the condition. Anonymous officials saying an agreement is near, Trump saying “the deal is largely settled,” or media reporting that the framework is close to completion also do not directly meet the rule.
This market’s definition of “ceasefire ends” requires an official confirmation by the U.S. government (or overwhelmingly credible reporting) that the U.S. military has carried out kinetic military action on Iranian sovereign territory. “Kinetic action” is limited to U.S.‑launched aerial bombs, drones, or missiles striking Iranian land. Attacks on Iranian forces abroad, naval operations, cyber attacks, ground special‑operations, artillery fire, small‑arms engagements, etc., are not considered “ceasefire ends” under the rules.
Therefore, this market can be understood as: before the United States again uses bombs, drones, or missiles on Iranian soil, can the US and Iran formally write down an end to the war? If no qualifying peace agreement is reached and no U.S. strike on Iranian territory occurs in the sense of the rules by 23:59 ET on December 31 2026, the market will settle as “No.”
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before the ceasefire ends?” market that went live yesterday currently shows a “Yes” probability of 51%.
The rules define a “permanent peace agreement” as a clear statement that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will cease permanently, or language equivalent to “a long‑term end to military hostilities.” Temporary accords, phased arrangements, extensions of a two‑week or 60‑day ceasefire, merely saying “negotiations continue” or “progress is made” do not satisfy the condition. Anonymous officials saying an agreement is near, Trump saying “the deal is largely settled,” or media reporting that the framework is close to completion also do not directly meet the rule.
This market’s definition of “ceasefire ends” requires an official confirmation by the U.S. government (or overwhelmingly credible reporting) that the U.S. military has carried out kinetic military action on Iranian sovereign territory. “Kinetic action” is limited to U.S.‑launched aerial bombs, drones, or missiles striking Iranian land. Attacks on Iranian forces abroad, naval operations, cyber attacks, ground special‑operations, artillery fire, small‑arms engagements, etc., are not considered “ceasefire ends” under the rules.
Therefore, this market can be understood as: before the United States again uses bombs, drones, or missiles on Iranian soil, can the US and Iran formally write down an end to the war? If no qualifying peace agreement is reached and no U.S. strike on Iranian territory occurs in the sense of the rules by 23:59 ET on December 31 2026, the market will settle as “No.”
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Lamine Yamar will still participate in the 2026 World Cup despite injuries, with only a 5% chance of becoming the World Cup top scorer
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market “Will Lamine Yamal be included in Spain’s official 2026 World Cup squad list?” settled as “Yes” 15 minutes ago.
Cadena SER’s live update on May 25 at 12:39 CEST listed Spain’s 26‑man squad, with forwards including Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams, Yeremi Pino, Ferran Torres, Borja Iglesias, Víctor Muñoz and Lamine Yamal.
Cadena SER reported on April 23 at 13:47 CEST that Yamal was diagnosed with a grade‑2 hamstring injury in his left thigh, will miss the remaining matches of Barcelona’s season, but is expected to be ready for the World Cup. El País wrote on May 25 that there were few uncertainties before Spain coach De la Fuente announced the World Cup roster, and one of the key decisions is how to manage attacking‑line injuries.
The market “Will Lamine Yamal be the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” has a “Yes” probability currently at 5%, with a trading volume of $8.9k.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market “Will Lamine Yamal be included in Spain’s official 2026 World Cup squad list?” settled as “Yes” 15 minutes ago.
Proposer proposal win rate 99.9% (5301/5307), sports sector win rate 99.9% (4999/5005)
Cadena SER’s live update on May 25 at 12:39 CEST listed Spain’s 26‑man squad, with forwards including Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams, Yeremi Pino, Ferran Torres, Borja Iglesias, Víctor Muñoz and Lamine Yamal.
Cadena SER reported on April 23 at 13:47 CEST that Yamal was diagnosed with a grade‑2 hamstring injury in his left thigh, will miss the remaining matches of Barcelona’s season, but is expected to be ready for the World Cup. El País wrote on May 25 that there were few uncertainties before Spain coach De la Fuente announced the World Cup roster, and one of the key decisions is how to manage attacking‑line injuries.
The market “Will Lamine Yamal be the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” has a “Yes” probability currently at 5%, with a trading volume of $8.9k.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors put $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 71.2%. The current “Yes” probability is 25.5%.
Sky News reported on May 9 that the current UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Starmer, after a disastrous local‑election result, said he would not “walk away” and that the correct approach is to “rebuild.” ITV News on May 11 said Starmer admitted in his speech that “incremental change is no longer enough,” promising to go further on defence, energy and closer ties with Europe.
In addition, internal opposition is strong: more than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable; ITV News tracked at least 64 MPs preparing to push for his removal, but a formal challenge requires the public support of 81 Labour MPs. The Associated Press reported on May 14 that Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary, saying Starmer should not finish his term; however, Streeting has not yet formally launched a challenge.
The most concrete recent challenge variable comes from the confirmed Makerfield by‑election on June 18. Greater Manchester mayor and one of Labour’s most closely watched potential successors, Andy Burnham, must first win that seat and return to Parliament before having a realistic path to formally challenge Starmer.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Total investment: $54.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 71.2%. The current “Yes” probability is 25.5%.
0x5f176a98 invested $38.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $74.3k. In that sector they have 65 settled trades with a win rate of 57/65 (88%), including 6 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $8.5k.
mr.ozi invested $16.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $336k. In that sector they have 1,667 settled trades with a win rate of 1,095/1,667 (66%), including 469 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $751, and this investment is 21.8 times that median.
Sky News reported on May 9 that the current UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Starmer, after a disastrous local‑election result, said he would not “walk away” and that the correct approach is to “rebuild.” ITV News on May 11 said Starmer admitted in his speech that “incremental change is no longer enough,” promising to go further on defence, energy and closer ties with Europe.
In addition, internal opposition is strong: more than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable; ITV News tracked at least 64 MPs preparing to push for his removal, but a formal challenge requires the public support of 81 Labour MPs. The Associated Press reported on May 14 that Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary, saying Starmer should not finish his term; however, Streeting has not yet formally launched a challenge.
The most concrete recent challenge variable comes from the confirmed Makerfield by‑election on June 18. Greater Manchester mayor and one of Labour’s most closely watched potential successors, Andy Burnham, must first win that seat and return to Parliament before having a realistic path to formally challenge Starmer.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Total investment: $54.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors have put $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have placed $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 32.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 32.5%.
The Associated Press updated today that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; two regional officials said the draft includes provisions to end the war, gradually reopen the strait, and address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The report also noted that Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has traveled to Qatar for related talks, and Trump said the negotiations are “progressing smoothly.”
The current draft includes provisions to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and requires all parties to commit to non‑interference in the internal affairs of regional states; Iran has previously insisted that any agreement ending the U.S.–Iran conflict must cover all fronts, including Lebanon. The United States, meanwhile, wants to preserve Israel’s right to self‑defense against imminent threats.
Reuters reported today that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while flying over Jaipur, India, said the Strait of Hormuz “must be opened, one way or another, it will be opened,” and clarified that the wording of the U.S.–Iran agreement may still need “a few days” to be finalized.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event will occur; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $82.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have placed $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 32.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 32.5%.
0xdf17f4a8 invested $42.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $164k. In that sector they have 349 settled trades with a win rate of 230/349 (66%), including 31 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $61, making this investment 688.9 times that median.
mr.ozi invested $16.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $336k. In that sector they have 1,667 settled trades with a win rate of 1,095/1,667 (66%), including 469 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $411, making this investment 39.9 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $24.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, making this investment 177.4 times that median.
The Associated Press updated today that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; two regional officials said the draft includes provisions to end the war, gradually reopen the strait, and address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The report also noted that Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has traveled to Qatar for related talks, and Trump said the negotiations are “progressing smoothly.”
The current draft includes provisions to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and requires all parties to commit to non‑interference in the internal affairs of regional states; Iran has previously insisted that any agreement ending the U.S.–Iran conflict must cover all fronts, including Lebanon. The United States, meanwhile, wants to preserve Israel’s right to self‑defense against imminent threats.
Reuters reported today that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while flying over Jaipur, India, said the Strait of Hormuz “must be opened, one way or another, it will be opened,” and clarified that the wording of the U.S.–Iran agreement may still need “a few days” to be finalized.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event will occur; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $82.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
KnureKnume invested $1.8k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, a sector net profit of $118k. Across 295 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 148/295 (50%), including 73 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $1.3k.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors have put $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
ScottyNooo invested $15.1k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Israel, sector net profit $513k. In that sector they have 618 settled trades with a win rate of 296/618 (48%), including 45 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $50, and this stake is 301.2 times that median.
0x6d9fc316 invested $1.3k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $231k. In that sector they have 692 settled trades with a win rate of 405/692 (59%), including 195 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $520.
0x162f6fff invested $1.9k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $175k. In that sector they have 310 settled trades with a win rate of 191/310 (62%), including 47 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $354.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 20 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 40.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.5%.
The market rules require that a U.S.–India free trade agreement become law in the United States by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, including Senate approval and presidential signature, or via a congressional‑executive agreement signed by the President.
The Associated Press reported on May 26 at 03:59 UTC that the U.S., Japan, India and Australia foreign ministers were meeting in New Delhi to discuss Indo‑Pacific cooperation, supply chains, and China’s influence; the AP reported on May 25 that U.S. Secretary of State López Obrador, after meetings with Indian Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Sujal Sharma, emphasized cooperation on trade, energy, defense and maritime security and expressed optimism about a broader trade agreement.
Recent developments have indeed been relatively positive. India’s *The Politician* reported on May 24 that Sujal Sharma and López Obrador, after their New Delhi talks, said they would accelerate the completion of a provisional bilateral trade agreement; Sujal Sharma noted that the Indian team had completed a round of discussions in Washington and that the U.S. delegation is expected to travel to India soon to continue negotiations. India’s *The Times of India* reported on May 25 that both sides are seeking to finalize the provisional trade agreement under discussion as soon as possible while expanding cooperation on energy, defense and critical minerals.
The earlier foundation was a framework agreement in February. The White House announced on February 9 that the U.S. and India had declared a “historic trade agreement” framework, with the U.S. reducing reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy, technology, coal and other products, while advancing broader U.S.–India bilateral trade talks. Reuters reported on February 6 that the framework still requires further negotiation to achieve a wider agreement, and India retained protective space in sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 20 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Will the United States sign a new trade agreement with India before December 31, 2026?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 40.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 30.5%.
aenews2 invested $1.8k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Politics, sector net profit $5.1M. In that sector, they have a win rate of 1131/1984 (57%) across 1,984 settled trades, including 260 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $817.
The market rules require that a U.S.–India free trade agreement become law in the United States by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, including Senate approval and presidential signature, or via a congressional‑executive agreement signed by the President.
The Associated Press reported on May 26 at 03:59 UTC that the U.S., Japan, India and Australia foreign ministers were meeting in New Delhi to discuss Indo‑Pacific cooperation, supply chains, and China’s influence; the AP reported on May 25 that U.S. Secretary of State López Obrador, after meetings with Indian Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Sujal Sharma, emphasized cooperation on trade, energy, defense and maritime security and expressed optimism about a broader trade agreement.
Recent developments have indeed been relatively positive. India’s *The Politician* reported on May 24 that Sujal Sharma and López Obrador, after their New Delhi talks, said they would accelerate the completion of a provisional bilateral trade agreement; Sujal Sharma noted that the Indian team had completed a round of discussions in Washington and that the U.S. delegation is expected to travel to India soon to continue negotiations. India’s *The Times of India* reported on May 25 that both sides are seeking to finalize the provisional trade agreement under discussion as soon as possible while expanding cooperation on energy, defense and critical minerals.
The earlier foundation was a framework agreement in February. The White House announced on February 9 that the U.S. and India had declared a “historic trade agreement” framework, with the U.S. reducing reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, and India committing to increase purchases of U.S. energy, technology, coal and other products, while advancing broader U.S.–India bilateral trade talks. Reuters reported on February 6 that the framework still requires further negotiation to achieve a wider agreement, and India retained protective space in sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Predicting the account that earned $216k from the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal changes address, predicts US‑Iran will reach an agreement within 5 days
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $20.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 34.5%, and a current “Yes” probability of 27.0%.
This account is funded by 0x77e4, which previously received funds from Polymarket account 0x18A0 via the intermediary wallet 0xDF70. 0x18A0 previously profited $216k by predicting the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal timing. After cashing out, the account withdrew all funds and has made no further transactions.
Currently, the diplomatic chain points toward a potential agreement: Trump has repeatedly hinted at a near‑term deal, mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar continue to push forward, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Kalibaf has been sent to Qatar for negotiations. Note that settlement of the market on “Yes” requires a clear indication that the US‑Iran military hostility has ended or will cease permanently; extensions of a temporary cease‑fire, negotiation progress, a framework memorandum, or statements lacking an explicit permanent end to hostilities do not satisfy the settlement criteria.
Account:
0xd15b0ef39896105ebca3f2e505cfbd7f6d95cf6d
Total investment: $20.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $20.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 34.5%, and a current “Yes” probability of 27.0%.
This account is funded by 0x77e4, which previously received funds from Polymarket account 0x18A0 via the intermediary wallet 0xDF70. 0x18A0 previously profited $216k by predicting the former NYC mayor’s withdrawal timing. After cashing out, the account withdrew all funds and has made no further transactions.
Currently, the diplomatic chain points toward a potential agreement: Trump has repeatedly hinted at a near‑term deal, mediators such as Pakistan and Qatar continue to push forward, and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Kalibaf has been sent to Qatar for negotiations. Note that settlement of the market on “Yes” requires a clear indication that the US‑Iran military hostility has ended or will cease permanently; extensions of a temporary cease‑fire, negotiation progress, a framework memorandum, or statements lacking an explicit permanent end to hostilities do not satisfy the settlement criteria.
Account:
0xd15b0ef39896105ebca3f2e505cfbd7f6d95cf6d
Total investment: $20.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?」the “Yes” probability rose from 27.1% to 35.6%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?” “Yes” probability increased from 27.1% to 35.6%.
The market rules require that before 23:59 UTC on May 31, a clear, widespread and unambiguous restoration of internet connectivity for the majority of Iran’s population, major applications, and general international internet access occurs and lasts for at least 24 hours; or that Cloudflare Radar shows the nationwide outage flag for Iran has not applied to new data for at least 24 hours with traffic clearly rebounding, while NetBlocks reports that the nationwide outage has been lifted or issues an equivalent statement.
Reuters reported on May 25 at 13:53 ET that Iranian President Raisi has ordered the reopening of international internet access, with Iranian state media saying the information came from the communications ministry’s public relations head; the report noted that most Iranians have been unable to access the global internet for 87 consecutive days, with only a few able to bypass restrictions via expensive, high‑end VPNs. Xinhua said on May 26 at 04:23 that Tasnim News Agency reported the order had been forwarded to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and approved by the government’s special cyberspace agency chaired by First Vice President Alireza Aref; the Iranian Students News Agency said the order will take effect on Tuesday.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “Will Iran’s internet access be restored before May 31, 2026?” “Yes” probability increased from 27.1% to 35.6%.
The market rules require that before 23:59 UTC on May 31, a clear, widespread and unambiguous restoration of internet connectivity for the majority of Iran’s population, major applications, and general international internet access occurs and lasts for at least 24 hours; or that Cloudflare Radar shows the nationwide outage flag for Iran has not applied to new data for at least 24 hours with traffic clearly rebounding, while NetBlocks reports that the nationwide outage has been lifted or issues an equivalent statement.
Reuters reported on May 25 at 13:53 ET that Iranian President Raisi has ordered the reopening of international internet access, with Iranian state media saying the information came from the communications ministry’s public relations head; the report noted that most Iranians have been unable to access the global internet for 87 consecutive days, with only a few able to bypass restrictions via expensive, high‑end VPNs. Xinhua said on May 26 at 04:23 that Tasnim News Agency reported the order had been forwarded to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and approved by the government’s special cyberspace agency chaired by First Vice President Alireza Aref; the Iranian Students News Agency said the order will take effect on Tuesday.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors put $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 5.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 96.2%.
The “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect” series of events saw a key settlement shift due to a new round of U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The May 24 sub‑event has been submitted twice as “No,” but both submissions were contested and are now in Final review after the disputes.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, targeting Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a ground‑based air‑defense missile site in Bandar Abbas. According to market rules, a strike on a ship at sea does not count as a ceasefire‑failure condition, but a U.S. strike on an Iranian land missile site is a decisive triggering event.
Therefore, the May 25 sub‑market has now been finally settled as No. At the same time, the May 24 sub‑event remains under review: authoritative reports place the Bandar Abbas land strike at 5 a.m. Eastern Time on May 25, while the military clash reported the day before involved naval fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
The dispute is not about whether the “Yes” side ignored the U.S. strike, but whether sub‑events on different dates can be counted as part of the same event, which depends on when the strike occurred and whether the target was on Iranian soil.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurred; they may close positions with profit‑taking or stop‑loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
Total investment: $19.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $19.7k on “No” for “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect on May 24?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 5.6%. The current “Yes” probability is 96.2%.
0xbd0477e0 invested $2.5k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $157k. In that sector they have 76 settled trades with a win rate of 39/76 (51%), including 29 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $97, making this investment 25.6 times that median.
Arbguy invested $7.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $501k. In that sector they have 374 settled trades with a win rate of 145/374 (39%), including 72 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.1), the median historical investment amount is $2.5k.
0xc84f7e76 invested $9.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $148k. In that sector they have 151 settled trades with a win rate of 108/151 (72%), including 12 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $47, making this investment 197.0 times that median.
The “Will the Iran ceasefire remain in effect” series of events saw a key settlement shift due to a new round of U.S. strikes in southern Iran. The May 24 sub‑event has been submitted twice as “No,” but both submissions were contested and are now in Final review after the disputes.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces carried out “defensive strikes” in southern Iran, targeting Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a ground‑based air‑defense missile site in Bandar Abbas. According to market rules, a strike on a ship at sea does not count as a ceasefire‑failure condition, but a U.S. strike on an Iranian land missile site is a decisive triggering event.
Therefore, the May 25 sub‑market has now been finally settled as No. At the same time, the May 24 sub‑event remains under review: authoritative reports place the Bandar Abbas land strike at 5 a.m. Eastern Time on May 25, while the military clash reported the day before involved naval fire in the Strait of Hormuz.
The dispute is not about whether the “Yes” side ignored the U.S. strike, but whether sub‑events on different dates can be counted as part of the same event, which depends on when the strike occurred and whether the target was on Iranian soil.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurred; they may close positions with profit‑taking or stop‑loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0xbd0477e08d82d35a855ff19644a88a9213d8fbb0
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
Total investment: $19.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?” causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?”, with an average purchase probability of 38.1%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%.
On the 23rd, Germany’s Welt am Sonntag cited several NATO diplomats saying doubts have arisen within NATO: whether Trump might skip the July Ankara summit out of dissatisfaction with the alliance. One diplomat said that, although these concerns have not been raised in formal NATO bodies, they have already appeared in “many informal conversations.” The worries are triggered by the United States sending mixed signals on issues such as troop deployments in Europe, the Iran conflict, and whether allies will support the Strait of Hormuz operation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $2.1k on “No” for “Will Trump attend the NATO summit?”, with an average purchase probability of 38.1%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 42.6% to 62.5%.
0x152fdae6 invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Trump, sector net profit $156k. Their win rate across 13 settled trades in this sector is 3/13 (23%), with 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
On the 23rd, Germany’s Welt am Sonntag cited several NATO diplomats saying doubts have arisen within NATO: whether Trump might skip the July Ankara summit out of dissatisfaction with the alliance. One diplomat said that, although these concerns have not been raised in formal NATO bodies, they have already appeared in “many informal conversations.” The worries are triggered by the United States sending mixed signals on issues such as troop deployments in Europe, the Iran conflict, and whether allies will support the Strait of Hormuz operation.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x152fdae6b14b9131a61ec77ed61dda50f68da549
Total investment: $2.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 27.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
On the 26th, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the United States’ new round of strikes on missile sites and vessels in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province was a “serious violation” of the seven‑week cease‑fire and could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war; at the same time, Rubio noted that the U.S. and Iran had made progress on a preliminary agreement that could end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait, though final wording might still require “a few days” of negotiation.
ABC News reported today that despite the U.S. just striking targets inside Iran, U.S.–Iran war‑ending talks continued on Tuesday in Doha; two U.S. officials said Iran’s senior delegation met with Qatari mediators locally, while Trump‑administration negotiators participated remotely.
A Financial Times column analysis said the emerging core of the U.S.–Iran deal is Iran allowing toll‑free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a phased U.S. easing of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets; Iran may agree to limit its nuclear program, but specific constraints are left for future talks; for Trump, quickly reopening the strait may be more attractive than continuing the war, though the plan could let Iran retain important leverage.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $89.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have put $89.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 27.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
0xc84f7e76 invested $14.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Iran, sector net profit $141k. In that sector they have 138 settled trades with a win rate of 91/138 (66%), including 12 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $663, making this investment 21.5 times that median.
mr.ozi invested $23.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $154k. In that sector they have 465 settled trades with a win rate of 334/465 (72%), including 99 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.
Parz1vaI invested $27.6k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, making this investment 203.5 times that median.
Dropper invested $24.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.0M. In that sector they have 1,163 settled trades with a win rate of 763/1,163 (66%), including 258 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $203, making this investment 119.4 times that median.
On the 26th, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the United States’ new round of strikes on missile sites and vessels in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province was a “serious violation” of the seven‑week cease‑fire and could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war; at the same time, Rubio noted that the U.S. and Iran had made progress on a preliminary agreement that could end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait, though final wording might still require “a few days” of negotiation.
ABC News reported today that despite the U.S. just striking targets inside Iran, U.S.–Iran war‑ending talks continued on Tuesday in Doha; two U.S. officials said Iran’s senior delegation met with Qatari mediators locally, while Trump‑administration negotiators participated remotely.
A Financial Times column analysis said the emerging core of the U.S.–Iran deal is Iran allowing toll‑free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a phased U.S. easing of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets; Iran may agree to limit its nuclear program, but specific constraints are left for future talks; for Trump, quickly reopening the strait may be more attractive than continuing the war, though the plan could let Iran retain important leverage.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific point in time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $89.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.2% and a current “Yes” probability of 40.5%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the incumbent Brazilian president seeking re‑election and one of the core figures of Brazil’s left‑wing politics. He served two terms from 2003‑2010, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, and was re‑installed in 2023; this term runs until the new president takes office in 2027.
The 2026 Brazilian election has two rounds. The first round is on October 4, and on that day the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will conduct electronic counting and continuously release results. If a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the winner is usually known that night; if no one reaches a majority, the final winner will be determined after the second round on October 25.
Lula’s main rival is Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro and a current senator from Rio de Janeiro state. His father cannot run directly and publicly backs Flávio’s candidacy. Flávio is generally positioned as a right‑wing conservative, but he tries to present himself as a milder, more business‑friendly version of his father: advocating tax cuts, reduced public spending, privatization, stronger security, and maintaining close ties with the Trump camp. Recently, Flávio faced a major political crisis involving a financing dispute linked to a banker imprisoned for fraud.
Reuters reported today that, amid the political crisis, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the White House to meet Trump, seeking to stem voter loss caused by his attempt to secure film financing from the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro. Reuters explicitly wrote that the scandal has “weakened his competitiveness against incumbent left‑wing President Lula in recent polls.” Meanwhile, after meeting Lula earlier this month, Trump described him as “very energetic” and said the meeting was “very smooth.” Currently, Flávio remains in a defensive loss‑cutting mode, while Lula continues to benefit from his opponent’s crisis.
After meeting Trump, Flávio stated clearly: “Trump has not announced support for me, and I did not ask for it.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total investment: $328.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $328.1k on “Yes” for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.2% and a current “Yes” probability of 40.5%.
0xbc75cabb invested $328k, with the market’s best related sector being Brazil, sector net profit $22.2k. In this sector, they have 6 settled trades with a win rate of 4/6 (67%); there are 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within the nearby cost range ($0.401‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $9.4k, and this investment is 35.0 times that median.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the incumbent Brazilian president seeking re‑election and one of the core figures of Brazil’s left‑wing politics. He served two terms from 2003‑2010, defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, and was re‑installed in 2023; this term runs until the new president takes office in 2027.
The 2026 Brazilian election has two rounds. The first round is on October 4, and on that day the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will conduct electronic counting and continuously release results. If a candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round, the winner is usually known that night; if no one reaches a majority, the final winner will be determined after the second round on October 25.
Lula’s main rival is Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro and a current senator from Rio de Janeiro state. His father cannot run directly and publicly backs Flávio’s candidacy. Flávio is generally positioned as a right‑wing conservative, but he tries to present himself as a milder, more business‑friendly version of his father: advocating tax cuts, reduced public spending, privatization, stronger security, and maintaining close ties with the Trump camp. Recently, Flávio faced a major political crisis involving a financing dispute linked to a banker imprisoned for fraud.
Reuters reported today that, amid the political crisis, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to the White House to meet Trump, seeking to stem voter loss caused by his attempt to secure film financing from the imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro. Reuters explicitly wrote that the scandal has “weakened his competitiveness against incumbent left‑wing President Lula in recent polls.” Meanwhile, after meeting Lula earlier this month, Trump described him as “very energetic” and said the meeting was “very smooth.” Currently, Flávio remains in a defensive loss‑cutting mode, while Lula continues to benefit from his opponent’s crisis.
After meeting Trump, Flávio stated clearly: “Trump has not announced support for me, and I did not ask for it.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total investment: $328.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors put $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 79.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 25.5%.
On the 20th, several drones believed to be linked to Ukrainian long‑range attacks entered or approached the airspace of Baltic states: a suspected Ukrainian drone was shot down by NATO aircraft over Estonia; Lithuania then experienced a similar airspace incident, with Vilnius air traffic briefly halted and legislators forced to take shelter underground; on May 21, Latvia and Lithuania again issued drone alerts, NATO aircraft scrambled to search for or intercept the targets, and the Latvian military said a drone was confirmed to have crossed the border from the direction of Belarus into Latvia.
On the 26th, Reuters reported that NATO plans to adjust the command structure in the Baltic region, assigning a German‑Dutch corps to the Latvia and Estonia directions to enable faster troop deployment should war break out in the future; a full corps can typically support 40,000‑60,000 soldiers, but in peacetime it retains mainly command, artillery, air‑defense, engineering and medical capabilities. This arrangement addresses rapid‑response needs “in the event of a war with Russia,” though it is unclear when it will take effect or how many troops will be assigned.
The event rules specifically exclude airspace violations, warning shots, cyber attacks, and NATO interceptions of attack‑type drones or missiles aimed at third parties; only a direct use of force between NATO member forces and Russian forces would settle as “Yes.” This means that even though Baltic tensions are clearly rising, as long as NATO continues to respond with interception, alertness, and deployment rather than firing directly at Russian forces, “No” remains supported by the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x11fcbba836d927c5fe6e6a6a64c9c0461e33dc48
0x57b00c3ccef1b6bd6962fb9ca463c4e0b38e76f4
Total investment: $46.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $46.6k on “No” for “Will there be a NATO‑Russia military clash before December 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 79.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 25.5%.
0x11fcbba8 invested $45.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Ukraine, sector net profit $67.2k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 17/28 (61%); 4 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $3.0k, and this investment is 14.8 times that median.
vantadel-lunae invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $36.5k. In that sector they have 1,033 settled trades with a win rate of 864/1,033 (84%); 123 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $159.
On the 20th, several drones believed to be linked to Ukrainian long‑range attacks entered or approached the airspace of Baltic states: a suspected Ukrainian drone was shot down by NATO aircraft over Estonia; Lithuania then experienced a similar airspace incident, with Vilnius air traffic briefly halted and legislators forced to take shelter underground; on May 21, Latvia and Lithuania again issued drone alerts, NATO aircraft scrambled to search for or intercept the targets, and the Latvian military said a drone was confirmed to have crossed the border from the direction of Belarus into Latvia.
On the 26th, Reuters reported that NATO plans to adjust the command structure in the Baltic region, assigning a German‑Dutch corps to the Latvia and Estonia directions to enable faster troop deployment should war break out in the future; a full corps can typically support 40,000‑60,000 soldiers, but in peacetime it retains mainly command, artillery, air‑defense, engineering and medical capabilities. This arrangement addresses rapid‑response needs “in the event of a war with Russia,” though it is unclear when it will take effect or how many troops will be assigned.
The event rules specifically exclude airspace violations, warning shots, cyber attacks, and NATO interceptions of attack‑type drones or missiles aimed at third parties; only a direct use of force between NATO member forces and Russian forces would settle as “Yes.” This means that even though Baltic tensions are clearly rising, as long as NATO continues to respond with interception, alertness, and deployment rather than firing directly at Russian forces, “No” remains supported by the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x11fcbba836d927c5fe6e6a6a64c9c0461e33dc48
0x57b00c3ccef1b6bd6962fb9ca463c4e0b38e76f4
Total investment: $46.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 15.2%.
Alberta is in western Canada, its economy is heavily dependent on oil, natural gas, and oil‑sand resources, making it one of the most oil‑rich provinces in Canada. Over the past decade, many conservative voters in the province have felt that the federal government in Ottawa benefits from Alberta’s energy economy while suppressing the province’s development through environmental regulations, carbon policies, production limits, and pipeline approvals. This sentiment is often described as “Western alienation” in Canada.
The current premier, Danielle Smith, belongs to the right‑leaning United Conservative Party (UCP). She has long argued that Alberta should reclaim more autonomy from the federal government. She emphasizes that the provincial government seeks “to build a strong, sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” In December 2025, a separatist group called Stay Free Alberta launched an independence petition, which was later halted by the courts, but Premier Smith continued to push for a vote, even though she has publicly stated her opposition to independence.
Reuters reported on the 25th that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Cano compared Alberta’s proposed non‑binding vote to the UK’s Brexit and warned that supporters might mistakenly view it as a cost‑free bargaining chip. Cano said, “On this separatist issue, people often say that voting for it is a free option that can strengthen negotiating leverage later; this is a very dangerous bluff.” Reuters also cited the latest Angus Reid data showing that 60% of Alberta voters would vote to stay in Canada in October, and if a direct independence referendum were ever held, 67% would vote against secession.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $5.1k on “No” for “Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 15.2%.
0x52071e89 invested $5.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $8.8k. Across 94 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 76/94 (81%), with 50 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $498, making this investment 10.3 times that median.
Alberta is in western Canada, its economy is heavily dependent on oil, natural gas, and oil‑sand resources, making it one of the most oil‑rich provinces in Canada. Over the past decade, many conservative voters in the province have felt that the federal government in Ottawa benefits from Alberta’s energy economy while suppressing the province’s development through environmental regulations, carbon policies, production limits, and pipeline approvals. This sentiment is often described as “Western alienation” in Canada.
The current premier, Danielle Smith, belongs to the right‑leaning United Conservative Party (UCP). She has long argued that Alberta should reclaim more autonomy from the federal government. She emphasizes that the provincial government seeks “to build a strong, sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” In December 2025, a separatist group called Stay Free Alberta launched an independence petition, which was later halted by the courts, but Premier Smith continued to push for a vote, even though she has publicly stated her opposition to independence.
Reuters reported on the 25th that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Cano compared Alberta’s proposed non‑binding vote to the UK’s Brexit and warned that supporters might mistakenly view it as a cost‑free bargaining chip. Cano said, “On this separatist issue, people often say that voting for it is a free option that can strengthen negotiating leverage later; this is a very dangerous bluff.” Reuters also cited the latest Angus Reid data showing that 60% of Alberta voters would vote to stay in Canada in October, and if a direct independence referendum were ever held, 67% would vote against secession.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”, with an average buy‑in probability of 41.2%; the current “Yes” probability is 61.5%.
Extended is a perpetual‑contract DEX built by a former Revolut team, previously known as X10, which raised $6.5 M during the testnet phase. The official Points page shows that Season 1 began on April 29 2025, with reward distribution and end date still to be determined. DeFiLlama currently lists Extended’s TVL at roughly $151.5 M, with 24‑hour fees around $76 k.
Extended’s founder is former Revolut crypto‑business head Ruslan Fakhrutdinov; investors include Tioga Capital, Semantic Ventures, Cherry Ventures, StarkWare, Cyber Fund, as well as Revolut executives and Lido co‑founder Konstantin Lomashuk among other angel investors.
To date, public sources have not disclosed Extended’s official token economics, total supply, initial circulation, vesting schedule, or TGE date.
Account:
0xc7e46445a6eeaad4dbbcd3fde912784e2ae7f5b8
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $5.1k on “Will Extended FDV exceed $150 million one day after launch?” “No”, with an average buy‑in probability of 41.2%; the current “Yes” probability is 61.5%.
Extended is a perpetual‑contract DEX built by a former Revolut team, previously known as X10, which raised $6.5 M during the testnet phase. The official Points page shows that Season 1 began on April 29 2025, with reward distribution and end date still to be determined. DeFiLlama currently lists Extended’s TVL at roughly $151.5 M, with 24‑hour fees around $76 k.
Extended’s founder is former Revolut crypto‑business head Ruslan Fakhrutdinov; investors include Tioga Capital, Semantic Ventures, Cherry Ventures, StarkWare, Cyber Fund, as well as Revolut executives and Lido co‑founder Konstantin Lomashuk among other angel investors.
To date, public sources have not disclosed Extended’s official token economics, total supply, initial circulation, vesting schedule, or TGE date.
Account:
0xc7e46445a6eeaad4dbbcd3fde912784e2ae7f5b8
Total investment: $5.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
U.S. Southern Command said on May 26 that the Southern Spear Joint Task Force carried out a lethal kinetic strike in the East Pacific against a vessel operated by a “designated terrorist organization” traveling along a known drug‑smuggling route, resulting in 1 death and 2 survivors. The Associated Press reported on May 27 that the Trump administration has been targeting suspected drug‑smuggling ships in Latin American waters since September of last year, causing at least 194 deaths to date.
This news did not push the market close to settlement; the key is that the market’s rules require U.S. government personnel—including the military, DEA, CIA, or other agencies—to directly participate on foreign soil in anti‑drug‑cartel actions before the specified deadline, or to conduct kinetic strikes against cartels on foreign territory. The most common U.S. involvement in cross‑border anti‑cartel operations so far has been CIA intelligence, DEA coordination, drone surveillance, logistical support, advisory roles, and Mexico‑led raids, none of which generally satisfy the market’s settlement criteria. The Mexican government repeatedly emphasizes sovereignty and acknowledges that the diplomatic cost of U.S. military or CIA direct action on Mexican soil would be very high.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $1.0k on “No” for “Will the U.S. government directly participate abroad in actions against drug cartels before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 68.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 33.5%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.0k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $26.5k. Across 223 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 163/223 (73%), including 51 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.1k.
U.S. Southern Command said on May 26 that the Southern Spear Joint Task Force carried out a lethal kinetic strike in the East Pacific against a vessel operated by a “designated terrorist organization” traveling along a known drug‑smuggling route, resulting in 1 death and 2 survivors. The Associated Press reported on May 27 that the Trump administration has been targeting suspected drug‑smuggling ships in Latin American waters since September of last year, causing at least 194 deaths to date.
This news did not push the market close to settlement; the key is that the market’s rules require U.S. government personnel—including the military, DEA, CIA, or other agencies—to directly participate on foreign soil in anti‑drug‑cartel actions before the specified deadline, or to conduct kinetic strikes against cartels on foreign territory. The most common U.S. involvement in cross‑border anti‑cartel operations so far has been CIA intelligence, DEA coordination, drone surveillance, logistical support, advisory roles, and Mexico‑led raids, none of which generally satisfy the market’s settlement criteria. The Mexican government repeatedly emphasizes sovereignty and acknowledges that the diplomatic cost of U.S. military or CIA direct action on Mexican soil would be very high.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors in 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」 invested $227.5k「No」
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $227.5k on 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」」 with “No”, the average purchase probability was 75.7%, and the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
Spencer Pratt is a television personality from the reality show “The Hills.” After a 2025 fire destroyed his home, he turned his frustration with the city’s fire response, homelessness management, and public safety into a mayoral campaign. CBS released new video segments on May 27 featuring a Pratt interview discussing his motivation, first debate performance, and lack of political experience; Fox News aired a video on May 27 with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy commenting on Pratt’s campaign, emphasizing his enthusiasm and reasons.
Pratt’s opponent, Karen Bass, is the incumbent Los Angeles mayor and former U.S. Representative, a mainstream Democratic politician. Her campaign focuses on re‑election, emphasizing homelessness, public safety, fire recovery, and federal pressure. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 22 that Pratt raised $2.72 M between April 19 and May 16, while Bass raised about $283 k in the same period; Pratt’s total fundraising is $3.26 M, slightly ahead of Bass’s $3.13 M, with cash on hand around $1.42 M.
An Emerson College poll on May 13 showed Bass at 30% and Pratt at 22%. In June 2025 the Trump administration sued Los Angeles and Bass, challenging the city’s sanctuary policies; Bass labeled the federal immigration raid a “full‑scale attack” on Los Angeles. Meanwhile, on May 20 Trump publicly expressed hope that Spencer Pratt would perform well. Although the Los Angeles Times said this was not an official endorsement, it positions Pratt as a “Trump‑aligned/anti‑Bass” candidate. This can bring national right‑wing attention to Pratt, but in heavily Democratic Los Angeles it may also help Bass mobilize anti‑Trump voters.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not simply betting on the event’s outcome but may open and close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b
Total investment: $227.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart‑money participants invested $227.5k on 「Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?」」 with “No”, the average purchase probability was 75.7%, and the current “Yes” probability is 23.5%.
aenews2 invested $104k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $5.1M. In that sector they have 1,984 settled trades with a win rate of 1,131/1,984 (57%); 260 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $3.6k, and this investment is 28.9 times that median.
WordleAddict invested $124k, with the market’s top related sector being Politics, sector net profit $379k. In that sector they have 1,417 settled trades with a win rate of 626/1,417 (44%); 291 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k, and this investment is 103.0 times that median.
Spencer Pratt is a television personality from the reality show “The Hills.” After a 2025 fire destroyed his home, he turned his frustration with the city’s fire response, homelessness management, and public safety into a mayoral campaign. CBS released new video segments on May 27 featuring a Pratt interview discussing his motivation, first debate performance, and lack of political experience; Fox News aired a video on May 27 with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy commenting on Pratt’s campaign, emphasizing his enthusiasm and reasons.
Pratt’s opponent, Karen Bass, is the incumbent Los Angeles mayor and former U.S. Representative, a mainstream Democratic politician. Her campaign focuses on re‑election, emphasizing homelessness, public safety, fire recovery, and federal pressure. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 22 that Pratt raised $2.72 M between April 19 and May 16, while Bass raised about $283 k in the same period; Pratt’s total fundraising is $3.26 M, slightly ahead of Bass’s $3.13 M, with cash on hand around $1.42 M.
An Emerson College poll on May 13 showed Bass at 30% and Pratt at 22%. In June 2025 the Trump administration sued Los Angeles and Bass, challenging the city’s sanctuary policies; Bass labeled the federal immigration raid a “full‑scale attack” on Los Angeles. Meanwhile, on May 20 Trump publicly expressed hope that Spencer Pratt would perform well. Although the Los Angeles Times said this was not an official endorsement, it positions Pratt as a “Trump‑aligned/anti‑Bass” candidate. This can bring national right‑wing attention to Pratt, but in heavily Democratic Los Angeles it may also help Bass mobilize anti‑Trump voters.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not simply betting on the event’s outcome but may open and close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
0xe25b9180f5687aa85bd94ee309bb72a464320f1b
Total investment: $227.5k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart money investors have put $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 21.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.5%.
Today, a U.S. official confirmed that while negotiations to end the U.S.–Iran war are ongoing, the U.S. launched a previously undisclosed round of strikes against Iran: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one‑way attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz and struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. The official said, “These actions were measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the cease‑fire.”
The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday night the Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is accused of approving passage through the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships up to $2 million. Prior to the sanctions, U.S. forces had just struck Iranian military facilities after downing the attack drones; Trump, while claiming the agreement may be near, also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain fully in effect until the agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”
Today, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy political deputy commander Mohammad Akbarzadeh said the likelihood of war breaking out again with the United States is “low,” even though Iranian forces remain on alert.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $101.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $101.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 21.9% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.5%.
0xc84f7e76 invested $73.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $153k. In that sector they have 155 settled trades with a win rate of 109/155 (70%), including 13 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k, and this stake is 31.7 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $28.5k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, and this stake is 209.9 times that median.
Today, a U.S. official confirmed that while negotiations to end the U.S.–Iran war are ongoing, the U.S. launched a previously undisclosed round of strikes against Iran: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one‑way attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz and struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone. The official said, “These actions were measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the cease‑fire.”
The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday night the Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which is accused of approving passage through the Strait of Hormuz and charging ships up to $2 million. Prior to the sanctions, U.S. forces had just struck Iranian military facilities after downing the attack drones; Trump, while claiming the agreement may be near, also said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain fully in effect until the agreement is “reached, certified, and signed.”
Today, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy political deputy commander Mohammad Akbarzadeh said the likelihood of war breaking out again with the United States is “low,” even though Iranian forces remain on alert.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xc84f7e76ec28ef20e7773b7b4926bfb7378be0c5
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $101.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Update: The second‑place Polymarket insider was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice, and this channel reported on their trades last December
The U.S. Department of Justice Southern District of New York announced on May 27 that Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo is charged with commodity fraud, telecommunications fraud, and money laundering for allegedly using non‑public Google search‑trend data to trade Google annual‑search‑related markets on Polymarket and profit over $1.2 million.
Our channel noted last December, after the settlement of “Who will be the top‑ranked Google search figure of 2025?”, that 0xafEe bought “Yes” when the probability for one of the optional choices, d4vd, was near zero, then kept buying “No” as Pope Leo XIV, the long‑standing leader of the top‑ranked list, remained at probability 1, and maintained an unusually high win rate across multiple Google search‑trend and Gemini product‑release markets. At the time we concluded this was not a typical “small‑stake, big‑gain” position but rather resembled trading on insider information from Google.
The Justice Department says Spagnuolo had access to an internal tool marked “Google Confidential”; the tool contains Google’s annual search results and underlying search‑trend data.
Account:
0xee50a31c3f5a7c77824b12a941a54388a2827ed6
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The U.S. Department of Justice Southern District of New York announced on May 27 that Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo is charged with commodity fraud, telecommunications fraud, and money laundering for allegedly using non‑public Google search‑trend data to trade Google annual‑search‑related markets on Polymarket and profit over $1.2 million.
Spagnuolo made a total profit of $1.26 m on 25 Google‑related trades with zero losses, 23 of which were tied to Google search rankings and the remaining 2 predicting the Gemini 3.0 release date.
Our channel noted last December, after the settlement of “Who will be the top‑ranked Google search figure of 2025?”, that 0xafEe bought “Yes” when the probability for one of the optional choices, d4vd, was near zero, then kept buying “No” as Pope Leo XIV, the long‑standing leader of the top‑ranked list, remained at probability 1, and maintained an unusually high win rate across multiple Google search‑trend and Gemini product‑release markets. At the time we concluded this was not a typical “small‑stake, big‑gain” position but rather resembled trading on insider information from Google.
The Justice Department says Spagnuolo had access to an internal tool marked “Google Confidential”; the tool contains Google’s annual search results and underlying search‑trend data.
Account:
0xee50a31c3f5a7c77824b12a941a54388a2827ed6
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN