1 account invested $13.4k “Yes” on “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
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「Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?」the “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
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1 new account invested $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
---------------------------------
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4 smart money investors put $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
0xdf6f85ff invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $12.3k. In that sector they have 51 settled trades with a win rate of 46/51 (90%), including 7 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
0x15f7ddbc invested $13.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $7.1k. In that sector they have 227 settled trades with a win rate of 150/227 (66%), including 22 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $427, and this investment is 30.9 times that median.
0x8a98109f invested $1.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $8.2k. In that sector they have 432 settled trades with a win rate of 221/432 (51%), including 26 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $1.5k.
0xfbd48c98 invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Trump, sector net profit $8.0k. In that sector they have 101 settled trades with a win rate of 65/101 (64%), including 37 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $806.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
---------------------------------
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4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 70.5%.
SpaceX is the aerospace, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company founded by Musk, with core assets including rocket launch services, the Starlink connectivity business, and AI ventures xAI, Grok, and X‑related AI that will be merged in 2026. SEC filings show that SpaceX submitted a public S‑1 on May 20, seeking to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX; the S‑1 still does not specify a price range or number of shares.
According to the Associated Press on May 21 at 18:03 UTC, SpaceX’s IPO is expected to become the largest IPO in history, with reported proceeds of about $75 B, and if completed it could make Musk the world’s first trillion‑dollar billionaire. Axios reported on May 21 that SpaceX is expected to trade on Nasdaq next month, but its S‑1 also shows the company is not as effortlessly profitable as imagined: revenue of $18.67 B in 2025, a net loss of $4.9 B, with Starlink being the only profitable segment and accounting for most of Q1 revenue.
The World Report on May 21 said the SpaceX IPO is expected to be valued between $1.75 T and $2 T, with fundraising possibly reaching $80 B; Bloomberg on May 20 reported that SpaceX has publicly filed Nasdaq IPO documents; TechCrunch on May 20 said the IPO is expected to raise about $75 B and be valued at roughly $1.75 T. For the same event, the “Yes” probability is about 82% at the $1.8 T level, about 57% at $2.2 T, and about 42.5% at $2.4 T.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at some point after opening.
Accounts:
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0x76cf0286fa25599a491ea4980abee915eece9452
0x86e99faea12fccd8925de5d9f052471baf7a4cdf
Total investment: $17.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 70.5%.
balthazar invested $3.8k. This trade is 38.1 times the median of their historical trades.
armageddonrewardsbilly invested $2.6k, with the market’s best correlated sector being Technology, sector net profit $111k. In that sector they have 240 settled trades with a win rate of 119/240 (50%); among them 28 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median of their historical investment amount is $5.2k.
0x76cf0286 invested $6.9k. They have 82 settled trades, total profit $56.4k.
0x86e99fae invested $3.6k. They have 111 settled trades, total profit $85.8k.
SpaceX is the aerospace, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company founded by Musk, with core assets including rocket launch services, the Starlink connectivity business, and AI ventures xAI, Grok, and X‑related AI that will be merged in 2026. SEC filings show that SpaceX submitted a public S‑1 on May 20, seeking to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX; the S‑1 still does not specify a price range or number of shares.
According to the Associated Press on May 21 at 18:03 UTC, SpaceX’s IPO is expected to become the largest IPO in history, with reported proceeds of about $75 B, and if completed it could make Musk the world’s first trillion‑dollar billionaire. Axios reported on May 21 that SpaceX is expected to trade on Nasdaq next month, but its S‑1 also shows the company is not as effortlessly profitable as imagined: revenue of $18.67 B in 2025, a net loss of $4.9 B, with Starlink being the only profitable segment and accounting for most of Q1 revenue.
The World Report on May 21 said the SpaceX IPO is expected to be valued between $1.75 T and $2 T, with fundraising possibly reaching $80 B; Bloomberg on May 20 reported that SpaceX has publicly filed Nasdaq IPO documents; TechCrunch on May 20 said the IPO is expected to raise about $75 B and be valued at roughly $1.75 T. For the same event, the “Yes” probability is about 82% at the $1.8 T level, about 57% at $2.2 T, and about 42.5% at $2.4 T.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at some point after opening.
Accounts:
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0x76cf0286fa25599a491ea4980abee915eece9452
0x86e99faea12fccd8925de5d9f052471baf7a4cdf
Total investment: $17.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Event: “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market today “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?” currently has a “Yes” probability of 1.5%.
Robert Harward is a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, former Navy SEAL officer, and later worked at Lockheed Martin and Shield AI. He has long appeared on television as a commentator on military and Middle‑East affairs, and this time on Fox News he discussed the U.S.–Iran stalemate, sanctions, blockades, and Trump’s pressure strategy toward Iran.
The market rules require that, before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 31, a confirmation from Harward, Fox News, official representatives of both sides (the rules do not specify whether “party” refers to a political party), or an overwhelmingly credible report must verify that he—or someone impersonating him—wore a mask during the May 19 broadcast for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
This original Fox News expert interview about the U.S.–Iran situation quickly went viral on X, with users focusing on Harward’s neck, jaw shadow, and facial texture; some thought it resembled a silicone mask, even extending to “body double” and conspiracy theories.
(Editor’s note: the video is a bit unsettling, view with caution 🥹)
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market today “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?” currently has a “Yes” probability of 1.5%.
Robert Harward is a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, former Navy SEAL officer, and later worked at Lockheed Martin and Shield AI. He has long appeared on television as a commentator on military and Middle‑East affairs, and this time on Fox News he discussed the U.S.–Iran stalemate, sanctions, blockades, and Trump’s pressure strategy toward Iran.
The market rules require that, before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 31, a confirmation from Harward, Fox News, official representatives of both sides (the rules do not specify whether “party” refers to a political party), or an overwhelmingly credible report must verify that he—or someone impersonating him—wore a mask during the May 19 broadcast for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
This original Fox News expert interview about the U.S.–Iran situation quickly went viral on X, with users focusing on Harward’s neck, jaw shadow, and facial texture; some thought it resembled a silicone mask, even extending to “body double” and conspiracy theories.
(Editor’s note: the video is a bit unsettling, view with caution 🥹)
---------------------------------
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Polymarket Reward Distribution Contracts Suspected of Being Attacked
On the prediction market Polymarket, an hour ago multiple X accounts claimed that Polymarket‑related contracts had been hacked. An official Discord announcement said that a private key for a wallet used for internal top‑up operations had been leaked, but user funds and market settlements were not affected.
“The another crypto hack exceeding $100 million before June 30” has a probability of 31%, and the probability did not change after the attack occurred.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an hour ago multiple X accounts claimed that Polymarket‑related contracts had been hacked. An official Discord announcement said that a private key for a wallet used for internal top‑up operations had been leaked, but user funds and market settlements were not affected.
“The another crypto hack exceeding $100 million before June 30” has a probability of 31%, and the probability did not change after the attack occurred.
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1 smart money investor invested $5.6k “Yes” on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $5.6k on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 7.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
The market rules require that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another country, occupying force, or internationally supported entity has established actual control on the island for the market to settle as “Yes”. Temporary raids, single landings, special operations, bombings, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or merely a brief interruption of Iranian activity do not count individually.
Kharg Island is Iran’s most critical oil export hub, located in the northern Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. Reuters reported on March 14 that Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports; Axios on March 16 noted that the U.S. once considered directly seizing the island as a possible “economic strike” option because it would cut off a major source of foreign exchange for Iran and could force Tehran to concede on the Strait of Hormuz issue. However, this also means that actually taking the island would not be a simple airstrike but a high‑intensity operation that would trigger multiple risks, including oil price spikes, Gulf energy infrastructure, troop supply lines, and congressional authorizations.
Account:
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Total investment: $5.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $5.6k on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 7.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
TheQuietRisk invested $5.6k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $1.1M. Across 49 settled trades in this sector, their win rate is 11/49 (22%), including 11 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $3.1k.
The market rules require that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another country, occupying force, or internationally supported entity has established actual control on the island for the market to settle as “Yes”. Temporary raids, single landings, special operations, bombings, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or merely a brief interruption of Iranian activity do not count individually.
Kharg Island is Iran’s most critical oil export hub, located in the northern Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. Reuters reported on March 14 that Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports; Axios on March 16 noted that the U.S. once considered directly seizing the island as a possible “economic strike” option because it would cut off a major source of foreign exchange for Iran and could force Tehran to concede on the Strait of Hormuz issue. However, this also means that actually taking the island would not be a simple airstrike but a high‑intensity operation that would trigger multiple risks, including oil price spikes, Gulf energy infrastructure, troop supply lines, and congressional authorizations.
Account:
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Total investment: $5.6k
---------------------------------
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【Prediction Successful】Iran Closes Western Airports in Tehran Flight Information Zone, Insider Account Earns Another $100,000
On the prediction market Polymarket, the suspected insider account previously reported by this channel predicted “Iran will close its airspace by May 24,” and the current “Yes” probability is 99%. The account has already realized nearly $100,000 in profit.
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice about 5 hours ago that all airports in the western part of Tehran’s flight information zone are closed, and all civilian instrument‑flight‑rules passenger flights must obtain new permission from the Iranian civil aviation authority. Iranian officials did not explain the reason for the closure.
CBS reported 3 hours ago that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of military action against Iran, but a final decision has not yet been made. Trump had planned to leave Washington this weekend and possibly attend his eldest son’s wedding, but announced a few hours earlier that he would not attend, citing “the need to remain at the White House to handle government affairs.”
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the suspected insider account previously reported by this channel predicted “Iran will close its airspace by May 24,” and the current “Yes” probability is 99%. The account has already realized nearly $100,000 in profit.
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice about 5 hours ago that all airports in the western part of Tehran’s flight information zone are closed, and all civilian instrument‑flight‑rules passenger flights must obtain new permission from the Iranian civil aviation authority. Iranian officials did not explain the reason for the closure.
CBS reported 3 hours ago that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of military action against Iran, but a final decision has not yet been made. Trump had planned to leave Washington this weekend and possibly attend his eldest son’s wedding, but announced a few hours earlier that he would not attend, citing “the need to remain at the White House to handle government affairs.”
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2 smart investors put $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart investors placed $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.4%.
On the 20th, the U.S. Department of Justice released a superseding indictment formally charging 94‑year‑old former Cuban leader Raul Castro and five other Cuban defendants. The U.S. alleges his involvement in the February 24, 1996 Cuban military shoot‑down of two unarmed American civilian aircraft belonging to the “Brothers Rescue Organization,” charging Raul with one count of “conspiracy to kill a U.S. national,” four counts of “murder,” and two counts of “destruction of an aircraft.”
On the 22nd, Reuters reported that after the U.S. indictment, thousands of Cubans gathered in front of the U.S. Embassy in Havana to show support for Raul; Cuban President Díaz‑Canel, Prime Minister Márquez, as well as Raul’s daughter, son, and grandson who serves as his close security detail attended. His family said Raul “is in good condition, very calm, like an old guerrilla fighter.”
Today, the official Cuban newspaper published an article stating that Cuba “poses no threat to any neighboring country to launch an invasion, blockade, or overthrow its government,” and described recent U.S. military and political pressure on Cuba as a threat coming from the north.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opened a position and later took profit or cut loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919
Total investment: $9.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart investors placed $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.4%.
0x5f176a98 invested $5.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $75.6k. In that sector they have 63 settled trades with a win rate of 56/63 (89%), including 5 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $21.7k.
Trading4Fridge invested $4.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $62.4k. In that sector they have 823 settled trades with a win rate of 485/823 (59%), including 278 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751‑$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $918.
On the 20th, the U.S. Department of Justice released a superseding indictment formally charging 94‑year‑old former Cuban leader Raul Castro and five other Cuban defendants. The U.S. alleges his involvement in the February 24, 1996 Cuban military shoot‑down of two unarmed American civilian aircraft belonging to the “Brothers Rescue Organization,” charging Raul with one count of “conspiracy to kill a U.S. national,” four counts of “murder,” and two counts of “destruction of an aircraft.”
On the 22nd, Reuters reported that after the U.S. indictment, thousands of Cubans gathered in front of the U.S. Embassy in Havana to show support for Raul; Cuban President Díaz‑Canel, Prime Minister Márquez, as well as Raul’s daughter, son, and grandson who serves as his close security detail attended. His family said Raul “is in good condition, very calm, like an old guerrilla fighter.”
Today, the official Cuban newspaper published an article stating that Cuba “poses no threat to any neighboring country to launch an invasion, blockade, or overthrow its government,” and described recent U.S. military and political pressure on Cuba as a threat coming from the north.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opened a position and later took profit or cut loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919
Total investment: $9.4k
---------------------------------
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1 new account invested $43.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $43.0k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
On the 23rd, Trump said the US‑Iran peace deal was “largely worked out,” with a potential agreement possibly including a formal declaration ending the war and allowing two months to continue discussing Iran’s nuclear program. The next day, he said he had asked negotiators “not to rush to close the deal,” believing time was on the United States’ side.
On the 24th, Axios cited a senior U.S. official who said the White House does not expect the US‑Iran agreement to be completed immediately; Iran’s top leadership may need several more days to approve the deal, and how Iran will hand over highly enriched uranium will still require negotiations over a 60‑day cycle. U.S. officials, while believing both sides are in a “very favorable position,” also acknowledged that the agreement is not yet final and could still be undermined or collapse.
This morning, Brent crude fell about 5% on Sunday, while spot gold rose over 1% to $4,560.09 per ounce. The core reason is that the market began investing in the possibility of a US‑Iran agreement ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Account: 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e
Total investment: $43.0k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $43.0k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
On the 23rd, Trump said the US‑Iran peace deal was “largely worked out,” with a potential agreement possibly including a formal declaration ending the war and allowing two months to continue discussing Iran’s nuclear program. The next day, he said he had asked negotiators “not to rush to close the deal,” believing time was on the United States’ side.
On the 24th, Axios cited a senior U.S. official who said the White House does not expect the US‑Iran agreement to be completed immediately; Iran’s top leadership may need several more days to approve the deal, and how Iran will hand over highly enriched uranium will still require negotiations over a 60‑day cycle. U.S. officials, while believing both sides are in a “very favorable position,” also acknowledged that the agreement is not yet final and could still be undermined or collapse.
This morning, Brent crude fell about 5% on Sunday, while spot gold rose over 1% to $4,560.09 per ounce. The core reason is that the market began investing in the possibility of a US‑Iran agreement ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Account: 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e
Total investment: $43.0k
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors put $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 64.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 46.5%.
The condition for “return to normal” requires IMF PortWatch to publish a 7‑day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz that reaches or exceeds 60 by June 30.
Xinhua reported on May 25 at 06:02 that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said on May 24 that 33 vessels—including tankers, merchant ships and container ships—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours after coordination and permission, with Iranian forces guaranteeing safety during the passages. Public data show a moving average of about 6.3 from May 11 to 17.
Today the Associated Press reported that the British Royal Navy has prepared the RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with sonar‑drone and mine‑clearing gear, near Gibraltar, intending to join France and allies in a Strait of Hormuz security operation; however, the UK stated that the operation will only commence after hostilities end. The Royal Navy commander responsible for mine‑threat mitigation said the first step is to clear a single lane, allowing roughly 700 stranded vessels to exit the bay, then clear the opposite inbound lane, and that clearing the entire strait could take “months or even years”.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $73.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 64.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 46.5%.
0x8e77537e invested $45.8k, with the market’s best related sector being US‑Iran, sector net profit $22.4k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 28/28 (100%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.7k, and this investment is 26.9 times that median.
Huludubu invested $20.8k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $252k. In that sector they have 1,309 settled trades with a win rate of 899/1309 (69%), including 285 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $470, and this investment is 44.2 times that median.
0x29d33707 invested $6.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Iran, sector net profit $82.1k. In that sector they have 73 settled trades with a win rate of 54/73 (74%), including 30 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $1.5k.
The condition for “return to normal” requires IMF PortWatch to publish a 7‑day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz that reaches or exceeds 60 by June 30.
Xinhua reported on May 25 at 06:02 that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said on May 24 that 33 vessels—including tankers, merchant ships and container ships—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours after coordination and permission, with Iranian forces guaranteeing safety during the passages. Public data show a moving average of about 6.3 from May 11 to 17.
Today the Associated Press reported that the British Royal Navy has prepared the RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with sonar‑drone and mine‑clearing gear, near Gibraltar, intending to join France and allies in a Strait of Hormuz security operation; however, the UK stated that the operation will only commence after hostilities end. The Royal Navy commander responsible for mine‑threat mitigation said the first step is to clear a single lane, allowing roughly 700 stranded vessels to exit the bay, then clear the opposite inbound lane, and that clearing the entire strait could take “months or even years”.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $73.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $48.1k on “Yes” for “Will Anthropic’s valuation reach (HIGH) $1.75 trillion by Dec 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $48.1k on “Will Anthropic’s valuation reach (HIGH) $1.75 trillion by Dec 31?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 61.5%.
The market rules specify using the Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM price: as long as Anthropic’s private valuation on any trading day within the year reaches or exceeds $1.75 T, the outcome settles as “Yes”. If the company IPOs or goes directly public before year‑end, the IPO pricing and post‑listing market cap will also be counted.
Reuters reported on May 20 that Anthropic disclosed second‑quarter revenue could reach $10.9 B, up from $4.8 B in Q1, and could achieve roughly $559 M of quarterly operating profit for the first time; the same report said Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 B per month for compute, with the agreement running through May 2029.
Current commentary notes that Anthropic’s growth narrative has shifted from a “burn‑rate model company” to “rapid revenue growth, strong enterprise customers, and compute constraints that can be solved with capital”. Analysts believe that if roughly $900 B of new financing closes by late May or June, NPM or other private‑price sources may continue to reference scarce equity deals, IPO expectations, and secondary‑market premium adjustments.
Note: Based on this trader’s past activity profile, the trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
Total investment: $48.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $48.1k on “Will Anthropic’s valuation reach (HIGH) $1.75 trillion by Dec 31?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 44.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 61.5%.
0x8a4c788f invested $48.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Finance, sector net profit $62.9k. In that sector they have 9 settled trades with a win rate of 9/9 (100%), including 1 trade bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
The market rules specify using the Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM price: as long as Anthropic’s private valuation on any trading day within the year reaches or exceeds $1.75 T, the outcome settles as “Yes”. If the company IPOs or goes directly public before year‑end, the IPO pricing and post‑listing market cap will also be counted.
Reuters reported on May 20 that Anthropic disclosed second‑quarter revenue could reach $10.9 B, up from $4.8 B in Q1, and could achieve roughly $559 M of quarterly operating profit for the first time; the same report said Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 B per month for compute, with the agreement running through May 2029.
Current commentary notes that Anthropic’s growth narrative has shifted from a “burn‑rate model company” to “rapid revenue growth, strong enterprise customers, and compute constraints that can be solved with capital”. Analysts believe that if roughly $900 B of new financing closes by late May or June, NPM or other private‑price sources may continue to reference scarce equity deals, IPO expectations, and secondary‑market premium adjustments.
Note: Based on this trader’s past activity profile, the trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
Total investment: $48.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 accounts invested $15.2k on “Yes” for “Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts put $15.2k on “Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 12.9%, and the current “Yes” probability at 8.2%.
On the 24th, Reuters cited a senior Iranian source saying Tehran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and that the nuclear issue is not part of the preliminary agreement currently being discussed with the United States; the source added, “The nuclear issue will be addressed in the final agreement negotiations, so it is not part of the current deal,” and emphasized that Iran has not agreed to export highly enriched uranium.
The same day, Reuters reported that a senior Trump‑administration official said Iran has “in principle” agreed to deal with its highly enriched uranium stockpiles and that Iran’s supreme leader has endorsed the overall framework of the agreement; however, the official also acknowledged that the specific nuclear measures still require more time to negotiate, and the proposed framework would allow a 60‑day consultation period for the final agreement. Iran has not immediately confirmed the so‑called “principle agreement,” nor explained its meaning.
Also on the 24th, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi publicly stated that Iran is willing to assure the international community that it does not pursue nuclear weapons and does not seek regional turmoil. He said, “Before the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was martyred, we already announced this position; now we reaffirm it, and we are ready to guarantee to the world that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.” Raisi also stressed that Iran’s negotiating team “will never compromise on matters of the nation’s honor and dignity.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
0x5ccf62ac8155e49bc7d021a1a66e9ef18f5579d7
Total investment: $15.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts put $15.2k on “Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31?” with “Yes”, an average purchase probability of 12.9%, and the current “Yes” probability at 8.2%.
ScottyNooo invested $12.7k, with the market’s best related sector being Middle East, sector net profit $616k. In that sector they have 930 settled trades with a win rate of 448/930 (48%), including 71 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $363, and this stake is 35.1 times that median.
eightpenguins invested $1.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $70.6k. In that sector they have 77 settled trades with a win rate of 46/77 (60%), including 38 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $1.3k.
0x5ccf62ac invested $1.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $23.5k. In that sector they have 389 settled trades with a win rate of 238/389 (61%), including 56 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $489.
On the 24th, Reuters cited a senior Iranian source saying Tehran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and that the nuclear issue is not part of the preliminary agreement currently being discussed with the United States; the source added, “The nuclear issue will be addressed in the final agreement negotiations, so it is not part of the current deal,” and emphasized that Iran has not agreed to export highly enriched uranium.
The same day, Reuters reported that a senior Trump‑administration official said Iran has “in principle” agreed to deal with its highly enriched uranium stockpiles and that Iran’s supreme leader has endorsed the overall framework of the agreement; however, the official also acknowledged that the specific nuclear measures still require more time to negotiate, and the proposed framework would allow a 60‑day consultation period for the final agreement. Iran has not immediately confirmed the so‑called “principle agreement,” nor explained its meaning.
Also on the 24th, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi publicly stated that Iran is willing to assure the international community that it does not pursue nuclear weapons and does not seek regional turmoil. He said, “Before the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was martyred, we already announced this position; now we reaffirm it, and we are ready to guarantee to the world that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons.” Raisi also stressed that Iran’s negotiating team “will never compromise on matters of the nation’s honor and dignity.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
0x5ccf62ac8155e49bc7d021a1a66e9ef18f5579d7
Total investment: $15.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7%; the current “Yes” probability is 48.5%.
The market rules require the MetaMask token to be publicly available, transferable, and tradable, and to have a fully diluted valuation above $100 M at “the next calendar day 4 PM ET after launch” for the outcome to settle as “Yes”. If MetaMask has not launched a qualifying token by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the outcome settles as “No”.
As of May 25, MetaMask still separates MetaMask Rewards from “MASK”, stating that Rewards are incentives tied to partnership activities and noting that there is currently no “MASK” token plan. Rumors of a native MetaMask token have persisted for years; ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin said in 2025 that a MetaMask token will arrive, possibly sooner than expected.
CoinDesk reported on May 13 that ConsenSys has pushed a potential IPO back to as early as this fall; the article said the company had originally planned to file a confidential S‑1 with the U.S. SEC around the end of February. CoinDesk also noted that ConsenSys was valued at $7 B after completing a $450 M Series D round in 2022 and had previously hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to assist with the IPO process.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening a position.
Account:
0x993f451b6d5c21996b1bf688493cea9c4c823ee3
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor put $3.0k on “No” for “Will Metamask’s FDV exceed $100 M one day after launch?”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7%; the current “Yes” probability is 48.5%.
0x993f451b invested $3.0k, and the market’s best‑correlated sector is Cryptocurrency, which has a net profit of $52.5k. Across 91 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 68/91 (75%); 27 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $2.7k.
The market rules require the MetaMask token to be publicly available, transferable, and tradable, and to have a fully diluted valuation above $100 M at “the next calendar day 4 PM ET after launch” for the outcome to settle as “Yes”. If MetaMask has not launched a qualifying token by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the outcome settles as “No”.
As of May 25, MetaMask still separates MetaMask Rewards from “MASK”, stating that Rewards are incentives tied to partnership activities and noting that there is currently no “MASK” token plan. Rumors of a native MetaMask token have persisted for years; ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin said in 2025 that a MetaMask token will arrive, possibly sooner than expected.
CoinDesk reported on May 13 that ConsenSys has pushed a potential IPO back to as early as this fall; the article said the company had originally planned to file a confidential S‑1 with the U.S. SEC around the end of February. CoinDesk also noted that ConsenSys was valued at $7 B after completing a $450 M Series D round in 2022 and had previously hired JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to assist with the IPO process.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they have taken profit‑taking or stop‑loss actions after opening a position.
Account:
0x993f451b6d5c21996b1bf688493cea9c4c823ee3
Total investment: $3.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The newly launched market estimates a 50‑50 outlook for the upcoming US‑Iran situation
On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before the ceasefire ends?” market that went live yesterday currently shows a “Yes” probability of 51%.
The rules define a “permanent peace agreement” as a clear statement that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will cease permanently, or language equivalent to “a long‑term end to military hostilities.” Temporary accords, phased arrangements, extensions of a two‑week or 60‑day ceasefire, merely saying “negotiations continue” or “progress is made” do not satisfy the condition. Anonymous officials saying an agreement is near, Trump saying “the deal is largely settled,” or media reporting that the framework is close to completion also do not directly meet the rule.
This market’s definition of “ceasefire ends” requires an official confirmation by the U.S. government (or overwhelmingly credible reporting) that the U.S. military has carried out kinetic military action on Iranian sovereign territory. “Kinetic action” is limited to U.S.‑launched aerial bombs, drones, or missiles striking Iranian land. Attacks on Iranian forces abroad, naval operations, cyber attacks, ground special‑operations, artillery fire, small‑arms engagements, etc., are not considered “ceasefire ends” under the rules.
Therefore, this market can be understood as: before the United States again uses bombs, drones, or missiles on Iranian soil, can the US and Iran formally write down an end to the war? If no qualifying peace agreement is reached and no U.S. strike on Iranian territory occurs in the sense of the rules by 23:59 ET on December 31 2026, the market will settle as “No.”
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before the ceasefire ends?” market that went live yesterday currently shows a “Yes” probability of 51%.
The rules define a “permanent peace agreement” as a clear statement that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will cease permanently, or language equivalent to “a long‑term end to military hostilities.” Temporary accords, phased arrangements, extensions of a two‑week or 60‑day ceasefire, merely saying “negotiations continue” or “progress is made” do not satisfy the condition. Anonymous officials saying an agreement is near, Trump saying “the deal is largely settled,” or media reporting that the framework is close to completion also do not directly meet the rule.
This market’s definition of “ceasefire ends” requires an official confirmation by the U.S. government (or overwhelmingly credible reporting) that the U.S. military has carried out kinetic military action on Iranian sovereign territory. “Kinetic action” is limited to U.S.‑launched aerial bombs, drones, or missiles striking Iranian land. Attacks on Iranian forces abroad, naval operations, cyber attacks, ground special‑operations, artillery fire, small‑arms engagements, etc., are not considered “ceasefire ends” under the rules.
Therefore, this market can be understood as: before the United States again uses bombs, drones, or missiles on Iranian soil, can the US and Iran formally write down an end to the war? If no qualifying peace agreement is reached and no U.S. strike on Iranian territory occurs in the sense of the rules by 23:59 ET on December 31 2026, the market will settle as “No.”
---------------------------------
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Lamine Yamar will still participate in the 2026 World Cup despite injuries, with only a 5% chance of becoming the World Cup top scorer
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market “Will Lamine Yamal be included in Spain’s official 2026 World Cup squad list?” settled as “Yes” 15 minutes ago.
Cadena SER’s live update on May 25 at 12:39 CEST listed Spain’s 26‑man squad, with forwards including Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams, Yeremi Pino, Ferran Torres, Borja Iglesias, Víctor Muñoz and Lamine Yamal.
Cadena SER reported on April 23 at 13:47 CEST that Yamal was diagnosed with a grade‑2 hamstring injury in his left thigh, will miss the remaining matches of Barcelona’s season, but is expected to be ready for the World Cup. El País wrote on May 25 that there were few uncertainties before Spain coach De la Fuente announced the World Cup roster, and one of the key decisions is how to manage attacking‑line injuries.
The market “Will Lamine Yamal be the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” has a “Yes” probability currently at 5%, with a trading volume of $8.9k.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the market “Will Lamine Yamal be included in Spain’s official 2026 World Cup squad list?” settled as “Yes” 15 minutes ago.
Proposer proposal win rate 99.9% (5301/5307), sports sector win rate 99.9% (4999/5005)
Cadena SER’s live update on May 25 at 12:39 CEST listed Spain’s 26‑man squad, with forwards including Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams, Yeremi Pino, Ferran Torres, Borja Iglesias, Víctor Muñoz and Lamine Yamal.
Cadena SER reported on April 23 at 13:47 CEST that Yamal was diagnosed with a grade‑2 hamstring injury in his left thigh, will miss the remaining matches of Barcelona’s season, but is expected to be ready for the World Cup. El País wrote on May 25 that there were few uncertainties before Spain coach De la Fuente announced the World Cup roster, and one of the key decisions is how to manage attacking‑line injuries.
The market “Will Lamine Yamal be the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” has a “Yes” probability currently at 5%, with a trading volume of $8.9k.
---------------------------------
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2 smart money investors put $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 71.2%. The current “Yes” probability is 25.5%.
Sky News reported on May 9 that the current UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Starmer, after a disastrous local‑election result, said he would not “walk away” and that the correct approach is to “rebuild.” ITV News on May 11 said Starmer admitted in his speech that “incremental change is no longer enough,” promising to go further on defence, energy and closer ties with Europe.
In addition, internal opposition is strong: more than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable; ITV News tracked at least 64 MPs preparing to push for his removal, but a formal challenge requires the public support of 81 Labour MPs. The Associated Press reported on May 14 that Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary, saying Starmer should not finish his term; however, Streeting has not yet formally launched a challenge.
The most concrete recent challenge variable comes from the confirmed Makerfield by‑election on June 18. Greater Manchester mayor and one of Labour’s most closely watched potential successors, Andy Burnham, must first win that seat and return to Parliament before having a realistic path to formally challenge Starmer.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Total investment: $54.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors placed $54.7k on “No” for “Will Starmer resign before June 30 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 71.2%. The current “Yes” probability is 25.5%.
0x5f176a98 invested $38.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $74.3k. In that sector they have 65 settled trades with a win rate of 57/65 (88%), including 6 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $8.5k.
mr.ozi invested $16.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $336k. In that sector they have 1,667 settled trades with a win rate of 1,095/1,667 (66%), including 469 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $751, and this investment is 21.8 times that median.
Sky News reported on May 9 that the current UK Prime Minister and Labour leader Starmer, after a disastrous local‑election result, said he would not “walk away” and that the correct approach is to “rebuild.” ITV News on May 11 said Starmer admitted in his speech that “incremental change is no longer enough,” promising to go further on defence, energy and closer ties with Europe.
In addition, internal opposition is strong: more than 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable; ITV News tracked at least 64 MPs preparing to push for his removal, but a formal challenge requires the public support of 81 Labour MPs. The Associated Press reported on May 14 that Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary, saying Starmer should not finish his term; however, Streeting has not yet formally launched a challenge.
The most concrete recent challenge variable comes from the confirmed Makerfield by‑election on June 18. Greater Manchester mayor and one of Labour’s most closely watched potential successors, Andy Burnham, must first win that seat and return to Parliament before having a realistic path to formally challenge Starmer.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Total investment: $54.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors have put $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have placed $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 32.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 32.5%.
The Associated Press updated today that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; two regional officials said the draft includes provisions to end the war, gradually reopen the strait, and address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The report also noted that Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has traveled to Qatar for related talks, and Trump said the negotiations are “progressing smoothly.”
The current draft includes provisions to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and requires all parties to commit to non‑interference in the internal affairs of regional states; Iran has previously insisted that any agreement ending the U.S.–Iran conflict must cover all fronts, including Lebanon. The United States, meanwhile, wants to preserve Israel’s right to self‑defense against imminent threats.
Reuters reported today that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while flying over Jaipur, India, said the Strait of Hormuz “must be opened, one way or another, it will be opened,” and clarified that the wording of the U.S.–Iran agreement may still need “a few days” to be finalized.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event will occur; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $82.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have placed $82.6k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 32.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 32.5%.
0xdf17f4a8 invested $42.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $164k. In that sector they have 349 settled trades with a win rate of 230/349 (66%), including 31 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $61, making this investment 688.9 times that median.
mr.ozi invested $16.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $336k. In that sector they have 1,667 settled trades with a win rate of 1,095/1,667 (66%), including 469 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $411, making this investment 39.9 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $24.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $136, making this investment 177.4 times that median.
The Associated Press updated today that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement that could end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; two regional officials said the draft includes provisions to end the war, gradually reopen the strait, and address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The report also noted that Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has traveled to Qatar for related talks, and Trump said the negotiations are “progressing smoothly.”
The current draft includes provisions to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and requires all parties to commit to non‑interference in the internal affairs of regional states; Iran has previously insisted that any agreement ending the U.S.–Iran conflict must cover all fronts, including Lebanon. The United States, meanwhile, wants to preserve Israel’s right to self‑defense against imminent threats.
Reuters reported today that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while flying over Jaipur, India, said the Strait of Hormuz “must be opened, one way or another, it will be opened,” and clarified that the wording of the U.S.–Iran agreement may still need “a few days” to be finalized.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event will occur; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
Total investment: $82.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor put $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.8k on “Yes” for “Will the United States launch a strike on Cuba before December 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 47.4% and the current “Yes” probability at 49.5%.
KnureKnume invested $1.8k, with the market’s top related sector being Geopolitics, a sector net profit of $118k. Across 295 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 148/295 (50%), including 73 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401‑$0.55), the median historical investment amount is $1.3k.
The Associated Press reported on May 21 that Trump and Secretary of State Rubio again raised the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Cuba. When asked about Cuba at the White House, Trump said that several previous presidents had considered action against Cuba and that “it now looks like it will be him who does it.” Rubio said the United States still prefers a peaceful negotiation, but he is not optimistic about reaching a diplomatic solution with the current Cuban government and noted that the president always retains the option to take any necessary measures to protect U.S. national interests.
A more direct escalation came from judicial and military postures. The U.S. Department of Justice announced on May 20 the unsealing of an alternative indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five co‑defendants, accusing them of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two “Rescue Brotherhood” civilian aircraft. The AP reported that on the same day the indictment was released, U.S. Southern Command prominently mentioned the arrival of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group in the Caribbean, stating its participation in a Latin‑American partner naval exercise that began in March.
The “World” newspaper reported on May 23 that Cuba’s civil defense agency issued a household guide for responding to a “military attack,” explaining how to prepare emergency kits, go to shelters, deal with air raids, and perform basic first aid; the same report said Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that any U.S. action would result in “blood flowing like rivers.”
The closest the United States and Cuba have come to direct military conflict dates back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The Kennedy administration seriously discussed air strikes and an invasion of Cuba but ultimately chose a naval “quarantine” and diplomatic exchanges: the Soviet Union withdrew its missiles from Cuba, the United States ended the quarantine, and pledged not to invade Cuba.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs but may close the position at a certain point to take profit or cut loss.
Account:
0xcf6a714618a328c608a1c70cb62a31a6bef3f9d0
Total investment: $1.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors have put $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three smart‑money investors have placed $18.3k on “Yes” for “Will Israel and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 9.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.2%.
ScottyNooo invested $15.1k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Israel, sector net profit $513k. In that sector they have 618 settled trades with a win rate of 296/618 (48%), including 45 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $50, and this stake is 301.2 times that median.
0x6d9fc316 invested $1.3k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $231k. In that sector they have 692 settled trades with a win rate of 405/692 (59%), including 195 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.051‑$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $520.
0x162f6fff invested $1.9k, with the market’s best‑related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $175k. In that sector they have 310 settled trades with a win rate of 191/310 (62%), including 47 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $354.
On the 25th, Netanyahu privately admitted that Israel currently has almost no ability to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, and the preliminary agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and Iran essentially excludes direct Israeli participation. Netanyahu publicly stressed that any final agreement must dismantle Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, remove enriched nuclear material from Iran, and guarantee Israel’s right to self‑defense on all fronts, including Lebanon. Iran demands a halt to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while Israel insists it can continue striking threatening targets.
Today, the Associated Press reported that the draft of the U.S.–Iran agreement, according to two regional officials, also includes commitments to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of regional states. The United States wants to preserve Israel’s right to take self‑defensive action against imminent threats, but Iran opposes this provision, indicating that whether Israel will be truly incorporated into a permanent cease‑fire text remains unresolved.
Also today, Israeli opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid publicly criticized the emerging U.S.–Iran deal, saying: “This agreement is bad for Israel, bad for the region, and bad for Iranian citizens.” Lapid noted that the current proposal may have Iran surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and sanctions, but Iran’s missile program and its support for regional armed groups remain unaddressed; he also blamed Netanyahu for failing to secure a deal in Washington that better aligns with Israel’s objectives.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut losses at a specific point.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0x6d9fc316c3b8377060a44b852ba664adbfd59790
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Total investment: $18.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN