「Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?」the “No” probability rose from 69% to 77%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “No” probability for “Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?” increased from 69% to 77%.
To date, Rockstar’s official Newswire and the GTA VI website still only display the previously released Trailer 1, Trailer 2, and the announcement made on November 6 2025 that the game’s release has been moved to November 19 2026; Take‑Two previously announced that it will release its FY 2026 Q4 and full‑year results after the U.S. market close on May 21.
Recently, the “Yes” side has been driven mainly by pre‑order rumors. TechRadar reported on May 15 that a Best Buy member‑alliance email appeared to show a GTA VI physical‑edition pre‑order window from May 18 to May 21, leading the market and fans to speculate that Trailer 3 or the pre‑order might appear simultaneously. However, PC Gamer, Tom’s Guide, and GamesRadar all noted after May 18 that no official pre‑order or new trailer was released on that date, and the related rumors seemed more like a mis‑sent or prematurely scheduled retail promotion rather than a marketing cadence confirmed by Rockstar.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “No” probability for “Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?” increased from 69% to 77%.
To date, Rockstar’s official Newswire and the GTA VI website still only display the previously released Trailer 1, Trailer 2, and the announcement made on November 6 2025 that the game’s release has been moved to November 19 2026; Take‑Two previously announced that it will release its FY 2026 Q4 and full‑year results after the U.S. market close on May 21.
Recently, the “Yes” side has been driven mainly by pre‑order rumors. TechRadar reported on May 15 that a Best Buy member‑alliance email appeared to show a GTA VI physical‑edition pre‑order window from May 18 to May 21, leading the market and fans to speculate that Trailer 3 or the pre‑order might appear simultaneously. However, PC Gamer, Tom’s Guide, and GamesRadar all noted after May 18 that no official pre‑order or new trailer was released on that date, and the related rumors seemed more like a mis‑sent or prematurely scheduled retail promotion rather than a marketing cadence confirmed by Rockstar.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor invested $1.7k “No” on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30” with the “No” outcome, at an average buy probability of 77.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 19.0%.
Today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told state television that Iran is seeking to establish a mechanism with Oman to ensure the “sustainable security” of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to cooperate with coastal states on a “safe shipping agreement.”
Turkish President Erdoğan told Trump that he welcomes an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and believes a “reasonable solution” can be found for the disputed issues; Turkey has maintained close contact with Washington, Tehran, and the mediating party Pakistan.
Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the biggest obstacle to U.S.–Iran talks is a lack of trust, but if Washington is willing to reach a “fair, balanced agreement,” negotiations can move forward; he also said Iran welcomes diplomatic support from other countries, especially China.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30” with the “No” outcome, at an average buy probability of 77.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 19.0%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.7k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $24.8k. Across 219 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 160/219 (73%), including 50 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k.
Today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told state television that Iran is seeking to establish a mechanism with Oman to ensure the “sustainable security” of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to cooperate with coastal states on a “safe shipping agreement.”
Turkish President Erdoğan told Trump that he welcomes an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and believes a “reasonable solution” can be found for the disputed issues; Turkey has maintained close contact with Washington, Tehran, and the mediating party Pakistan.
Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the biggest obstacle to U.S.–Iran talks is a lack of trust, but if Washington is willing to reach a “fair, balanced agreement,” negotiations can move forward; he also said Iran welcomes diplomatic support from other countries, especially China.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” – “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula has a first‑round support rate of 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation data, Renan Santos receives 36.1% support among voters aged 16‑24, above Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula has a first‑round support rate of 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation data, Renan Santos receives 36.1% support among voters aged 16‑24, above Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor placed $1.4k on “Yes” for “U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, half an hour ago, 1 smart money investor put $1.4k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 4.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 4.2%.
Xinhua reported 2 hours ago that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange information through a Pakistani mediator, and Iran is reviewing the U.S.’s latest position; Tasnim News Agency, citing sources close to the Iranian negotiation team, said the United States submitted a 14‑point proposal three days ago and has already sent a new draft to Tehran via Pakistan. The Pakistani mediator is trying in Tehran to narrow the textual gap between the parties, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.
Reuters reported the same direction 2 minutes later and added President Trump’s latest statement: he said he is willing to wait a few more days for a “correct answer” from Iran, but if no agreement is reached, the U.S. is prepared to resume actions quickly. Reuters also noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if attacks on Iran recur, the promised regional war could expand beyond the region.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe36f5735f5bc12c36b361a599e8603d56f7ccd91
Total investment: $1.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, half an hour ago, 1 smart money investor put $1.4k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 4.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 4.2%.
0xe36f5735 invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $34.6k. In this sector they have 8 settled trades with a win rate of 8/8 (100%), and there are 0 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95.
Xinhua reported 2 hours ago that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange information through a Pakistani mediator, and Iran is reviewing the U.S.’s latest position; Tasnim News Agency, citing sources close to the Iranian negotiation team, said the United States submitted a 14‑point proposal three days ago and has already sent a new draft to Tehran via Pakistan. The Pakistani mediator is trying in Tehran to narrow the textual gap between the parties, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.
Reuters reported the same direction 2 minutes later and added President Trump’s latest statement: he said he is willing to wait a few more days for a “correct answer” from Iran, but if no agreement is reached, the U.S. is prepared to resume actions quickly. Reuters also noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if attacks on Iran recur, the promised regional war could expand beyond the region.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe36f5735f5bc12c36b361a599e8603d56f7ccd91
Total investment: $1.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $6.4k “Yes” on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula’s first‑round support is 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation, Renan Santos receives 36.1% among voters aged 16‑24, ahead of Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula’s first‑round support is 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation, Renan Santos receives 36.1% among voters aged 16‑24, ahead of Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 smart money investors put $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors placed $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
The Los Angeles mayoral election is nonpartisan, with the primary on June 2. According to the city’s election schedule, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June primary, the top two vote‑getters will advance to the municipal runoff on November 3.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking re‑election, facing 13 challengers. LAist’s voter guide notes that the mayor runs the municipal machine of the United States’ second‑largest city, with an annual city budget of about $14 billion; key issues this cycle include homelessness, post‑Palisades fire recovery, public safety, housing, LAPD staffing, and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
The Los Angeles Times reported on the 13th that an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows Karen Bass leading at 30%, Spencer Pratt at 22%, and councilmember Nithya Raman at 20%. When accounting for undecided voters, Bass rises to 35%, Raman to 23.3%, and Pratt to 22.9%.
Today, Trump told reporters he hopes Spencer Pratt performs well and said, “I heard he’s a very MAGA person.” However, USC/UC Berkeley political communication scholar Dan Schnur said Los Angeles is even bluer than California overall, and although Pratt has no party label on the ballot, “the more voters know Trump backs him, the harder it will be for him to break through the Republican conservative base.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0x1fee90f352fd362ea4bf13c6ed7cdd83a4d2ed5e
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
Total investment: $36.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors placed $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
0x1fee90f3 invested $12.5k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $73.9k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 18/28 (64%), including 7 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
0xc6dd7225 invested $9.4k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $93.6k. In that sector they have 401 settled trades with a win rate of 271/401 (68%), including 60 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.4k.
0xa30e4513 invested $9.8k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $18.7k. In that sector they have 17 settled trades with a win rate of 14/17 (82%), and none of those trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
pup1 invested $3.0k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $95.3k. In that sector they have 1,279 settled trades with a win rate of 573/1,279 (45%), including 242 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $664.
foodenjoyer invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $541k. In that sector they have 70 settled trades with a win rate of 31/70 (44%), including 6 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $5.0k.
The Los Angeles mayoral election is nonpartisan, with the primary on June 2. According to the city’s election schedule, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June primary, the top two vote‑getters will advance to the municipal runoff on November 3.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking re‑election, facing 13 challengers. LAist’s voter guide notes that the mayor runs the municipal machine of the United States’ second‑largest city, with an annual city budget of about $14 billion; key issues this cycle include homelessness, post‑Palisades fire recovery, public safety, housing, LAPD staffing, and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
The Los Angeles Times reported on the 13th that an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows Karen Bass leading at 30%, Spencer Pratt at 22%, and councilmember Nithya Raman at 20%. When accounting for undecided voters, Bass rises to 35%, Raman to 23.3%, and Pratt to 22.9%.
Today, Trump told reporters he hopes Spencer Pratt performs well and said, “I heard he’s a very MAGA person.” However, USC/UC Berkeley political communication scholar Dan Schnur said Los Angeles is even bluer than California overall, and although Pratt has no party label on the ballot, “the more voters know Trump backs him, the harder it will be for him to break through the Republican conservative base.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0x1fee90f352fd362ea4bf13c6ed7cdd83a4d2ed5e
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
Total investment: $36.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, raising the “No” probability from 56.6% to 68.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket half an hour ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 64.7%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 56.6% to 68.5%.
The market’s settlement condition requires a government to expel the Israeli ambassador it has posted in that country, or to issue a clear, official, unambiguous statement that it will expel / is expelling that ambassador, for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
On May 13, a group of civil‑society teams announced they would cross the eastern Mediterranean to the Gaza coast, aiming to deliver aid and challenge Israel’s maritime blockade of Gaza. On May 19, Israel’s foreign ministry said that “all 430 activists” were taken to Israel to meet consular representatives of their respective countries and were subsequently detained in Israel.
The Canadian Press reported on May 20 that Canada’s foreign minister had requested to summon the Israeli ambassador to Canada; Italy, Spain, Belgium and other countries also summoned the Israeli ambassador or chargé d’affaires that day to protest Israel’s treatment of the activist flotilla. The Croatian president’s office said on May 18 that the nominee for Israeli ambassador to Croatia would not receive presidential approval because of current Israeli government policies; Al Jazeera reported the same day that the Israeli appointee might only be able to go to Croatia as a chargé d’affaires.
The most relevant recent event to this market’s rule definition occurred months earlier: South Africa’s SABC reported on January 30 that South Africa declared the Israeli deputy ambassador/chargé d’affaires Ariel Seidman “persona non grata” and gave him 72 hours to leave, but that incident happened before the market was created on March 31 and involved a “deputy ambassador” rather than the more specific “posted ambassador” defined in the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but is opening a position and later taking profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket half an hour ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 64.7%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 56.6% to 68.5%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.1k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Middle East, with a sector net profit of $39.3k. Across 141 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 103/141 (73%); 41 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $958.
The market’s settlement condition requires a government to expel the Israeli ambassador it has posted in that country, or to issue a clear, official, unambiguous statement that it will expel / is expelling that ambassador, for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
On May 13, a group of civil‑society teams announced they would cross the eastern Mediterranean to the Gaza coast, aiming to deliver aid and challenge Israel’s maritime blockade of Gaza. On May 19, Israel’s foreign ministry said that “all 430 activists” were taken to Israel to meet consular representatives of their respective countries and were subsequently detained in Israel.
The Canadian Press reported on May 20 that Canada’s foreign minister had requested to summon the Israeli ambassador to Canada; Italy, Spain, Belgium and other countries also summoned the Israeli ambassador or chargé d’affaires that day to protest Israel’s treatment of the activist flotilla. The Croatian president’s office said on May 18 that the nominee for Israeli ambassador to Croatia would not receive presidential approval because of current Israeli government policies; Al Jazeera reported the same day that the Israeli appointee might only be able to go to Croatia as a chargé d’affaires.
The most relevant recent event to this market’s rule definition occurred months earlier: South Africa’s SABC reported on January 30 that South Africa declared the Israeli deputy ambassador/chargé d’affaires Ariel Seidman “persona non grata” and gave him 72 hours to leave, but that incident happened before the market was created on March 31 and involved a “deputy ambassador” rather than the more specific “posted ambassador” defined in the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but is opening a position and later taking profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Event: “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?” currently shows a “Google” probability of 87%.
OpenAI officially announced on March 31 that it completed a $122 B financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $852 B; Anthropic officially announced on February 12 that it completed a $30 B Series G financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $380 B. Adding these two official financing valuations together, OpenAI + Anthropic is roughly $1.23 T. By comparison, Alphabet/Google’s current public‑market market cap is about $4.7 T, still close to four times the combined total.
Bloomberg reported on May 12 that Anthropic is in preliminary discussions with investors about a new financing of at least $30 B, which could push its valuation above $900 B. If this round is completed at a similar level, the combined valuation of OpenAI + Anthropic would approach $1.75 T, still about $3 T short of Google’s current $4.7 T market cap.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?” currently shows a “Google” probability of 87%.
OpenAI officially announced on March 31 that it completed a $122 B financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $852 B; Anthropic officially announced on February 12 that it completed a $30 B Series G financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $380 B. Adding these two official financing valuations together, OpenAI + Anthropic is roughly $1.23 T. By comparison, Alphabet/Google’s current public‑market market cap is about $4.7 T, still close to four times the combined total.
Bloomberg reported on May 12 that Anthropic is in preliminary discussions with investors about a new financing of at least $30 B, which could push its valuation above $900 B. If this round is completed at a similar level, the combined valuation of OpenAI + Anthropic would approach $1.75 T, still about $3 T short of Google’s current $4.7 T market cap.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 smart money investors have put $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have placed $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 19.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 18.5%.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Rubi O said there are “some positive signs” that the United States and Iran are reaching an agreement and that the talks “have made some progress”; he also disclosed that the Pakistani envoy leading the mediation is expected to travel to Tehran to push Iran to review the Trump administration’s latest proposal.
Iran’s semi‑official media ISNA reported that Tehran is evaluating the U.S. latest text, which has “narrowed the differences to some extent”; Iran also stated that further progress toward an agreement requires Washington to abandon its inclination to resort to war again.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $134.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have placed $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 19.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 18.5%.
denizz invested $81.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.2M. In that sector they have 855 settled trades with a win rate of 574/855 (67%), including 183 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k, and this investment is 45.2 times that median.
0xdf17f4a8 invested $17.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $166k. In that sector they have 345 settled trades with a win rate of 229/345 (66%), including 31 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $192, and this investment is 89.1 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $15.7k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $117, and this investment is 134.2 times that median.
Dropper invested $20.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.0M. In that sector they have 1,163 settled trades with a win rate of 763/1,163 (66%), including 258 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $203, and this investment is 100.7 times that median.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Rubi O said there are “some positive signs” that the United States and Iran are reaching an agreement and that the talks “have made some progress”; he also disclosed that the Pakistani envoy leading the mediation is expected to travel to Tehran to push Iran to review the Trump administration’s latest proposal.
Iran’s semi‑official media ISNA reported that Tehran is evaluating the U.S. latest text, which has “narrowed the differences to some extent”; Iran also stated that further progress toward an agreement requires Washington to abandon its inclination to resort to war again.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $134.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 account invested $13.4k “Yes” on “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
「Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?」the “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 smart money investors put $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
0xdf6f85ff invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $12.3k. In that sector they have 51 settled trades with a win rate of 46/51 (90%), including 7 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
0x15f7ddbc invested $13.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $7.1k. In that sector they have 227 settled trades with a win rate of 150/227 (66%), including 22 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $427, and this investment is 30.9 times that median.
0x8a98109f invested $1.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $8.2k. In that sector they have 432 settled trades with a win rate of 221/432 (51%), including 26 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $1.5k.
0xfbd48c98 invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Trump, sector net profit $8.0k. In that sector they have 101 settled trades with a win rate of 65/101 (64%), including 37 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $806.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 70.5%.
SpaceX is the aerospace, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company founded by Musk, with core assets including rocket launch services, the Starlink connectivity business, and AI ventures xAI, Grok, and X‑related AI that will be merged in 2026. SEC filings show that SpaceX submitted a public S‑1 on May 20, seeking to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX; the S‑1 still does not specify a price range or number of shares.
According to the Associated Press on May 21 at 18:03 UTC, SpaceX’s IPO is expected to become the largest IPO in history, with reported proceeds of about $75 B, and if completed it could make Musk the world’s first trillion‑dollar billionaire. Axios reported on May 21 that SpaceX is expected to trade on Nasdaq next month, but its S‑1 also shows the company is not as effortlessly profitable as imagined: revenue of $18.67 B in 2025, a net loss of $4.9 B, with Starlink being the only profitable segment and accounting for most of Q1 revenue.
The World Report on May 21 said the SpaceX IPO is expected to be valued between $1.75 T and $2 T, with fundraising possibly reaching $80 B; Bloomberg on May 20 reported that SpaceX has publicly filed Nasdaq IPO documents; TechCrunch on May 20 said the IPO is expected to raise about $75 B and be valued at roughly $1.75 T. For the same event, the “Yes” probability is about 82% at the $1.8 T level, about 57% at $2.2 T, and about 42.5% at $2.4 T.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at some point after opening.
Accounts:
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0x76cf0286fa25599a491ea4980abee915eece9452
0x86e99faea12fccd8925de5d9f052471baf7a4cdf
Total investment: $17.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 accounts invested $17.0k “Yes” on “Will SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceed $2 trillion?”, with an average purchase probability of 67.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 70.5%.
balthazar invested $3.8k. This trade is 38.1 times the median of their historical trades.
armageddonrewardsbilly invested $2.6k, with the market’s best correlated sector being Technology, sector net profit $111k. In that sector they have 240 settled trades with a win rate of 119/240 (50%); among them 28 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median of their historical investment amount is $5.2k.
0x76cf0286 invested $6.9k. They have 82 settled trades, total profit $56.4k.
0x86e99fae invested $3.6k. They have 111 settled trades, total profit $85.8k.
SpaceX is the aerospace, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure company founded by Musk, with core assets including rocket launch services, the Starlink connectivity business, and AI ventures xAI, Grok, and X‑related AI that will be merged in 2026. SEC filings show that SpaceX submitted a public S‑1 on May 20, seeking to list on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX; the S‑1 still does not specify a price range or number of shares.
According to the Associated Press on May 21 at 18:03 UTC, SpaceX’s IPO is expected to become the largest IPO in history, with reported proceeds of about $75 B, and if completed it could make Musk the world’s first trillion‑dollar billionaire. Axios reported on May 21 that SpaceX is expected to trade on Nasdaq next month, but its S‑1 also shows the company is not as effortlessly profitable as imagined: revenue of $18.67 B in 2025, a net loss of $4.9 B, with Starlink being the only profitable segment and accounting for most of Q1 revenue.
The World Report on May 21 said the SpaceX IPO is expected to be valued between $1.75 T and $2 T, with fundraising possibly reaching $80 B; Bloomberg on May 20 reported that SpaceX has publicly filed Nasdaq IPO documents; TechCrunch on May 20 said the IPO is expected to raise about $75 B and be valued at roughly $1.75 T. For the same event, the “Yes” probability is about 82% at the $1.8 T level, about 57% at $2.2 T, and about 42.5% at $2.4 T.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at some point after opening.
Accounts:
0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
0x76cf0286fa25599a491ea4980abee915eece9452
0x86e99faea12fccd8925de5d9f052471baf7a4cdf
Total investment: $17.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Event: “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market today “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?” currently has a “Yes” probability of 1.5%.
Robert Harward is a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, former Navy SEAL officer, and later worked at Lockheed Martin and Shield AI. He has long appeared on television as a commentator on military and Middle‑East affairs, and this time on Fox News he discussed the U.S.–Iran stalemate, sanctions, blockades, and Trump’s pressure strategy toward Iran.
The market rules require that, before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 31, a confirmation from Harward, Fox News, official representatives of both sides (the rules do not specify whether “party” refers to a political party), or an overwhelmingly credible report must verify that he—or someone impersonating him—wore a mask during the May 19 broadcast for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
This original Fox News expert interview about the U.S.–Iran situation quickly went viral on X, with users focusing on Harward’s neck, jaw shadow, and facial texture; some thought it resembled a silicone mask, even extending to “body double” and conspiracy theories.
(Editor’s note: the video is a bit unsettling, view with caution 🥹)
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market today “Did the Fox News Guest Wear a Mask?” currently has a “Yes” probability of 1.5%.
Robert Harward is a retired U.S. Navy admiral, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, former Navy SEAL officer, and later worked at Lockheed Martin and Shield AI. He has long appeared on television as a commentator on military and Middle‑East affairs, and this time on Fox News he discussed the U.S.–Iran stalemate, sanctions, blockades, and Trump’s pressure strategy toward Iran.
The market rules require that, before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 31, a confirmation from Harward, Fox News, official representatives of both sides (the rules do not specify whether “party” refers to a political party), or an overwhelmingly credible report must verify that he—or someone impersonating him—wore a mask during the May 19 broadcast for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
This original Fox News expert interview about the U.S.–Iran situation quickly went viral on X, with users focusing on Harward’s neck, jaw shadow, and facial texture; some thought it resembled a silicone mask, even extending to “body double” and conspiracy theories.
(Editor’s note: the video is a bit unsettling, view with caution 🥹)
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Polymarket Reward Distribution Contracts Suspected of Being Attacked
On the prediction market Polymarket, an hour ago multiple X accounts claimed that Polymarket‑related contracts had been hacked. An official Discord announcement said that a private key for a wallet used for internal top‑up operations had been leaked, but user funds and market settlements were not affected.
“The another crypto hack exceeding $100 million before June 30” has a probability of 31%, and the probability did not change after the attack occurred.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an hour ago multiple X accounts claimed that Polymarket‑related contracts had been hacked. An official Discord announcement said that a private key for a wallet used for internal top‑up operations had been leaked, but user funds and market settlements were not affected.
“The another crypto hack exceeding $100 million before June 30” has a probability of 31%, and the probability did not change after the attack occurred.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart money investor invested $5.6k “Yes” on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $5.6k on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 7.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
The market rules require that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another country, occupying force, or internationally supported entity has established actual control on the island for the market to settle as “Yes”. Temporary raids, single landings, special operations, bombings, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or merely a brief interruption of Iranian activity do not count individually.
Kharg Island is Iran’s most critical oil export hub, located in the northern Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. Reuters reported on March 14 that Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports; Axios on March 16 noted that the U.S. once considered directly seizing the island as a possible “economic strike” option because it would cut off a major source of foreign exchange for Iran and could force Tehran to concede on the Strait of Hormuz issue. However, this also means that actually taking the island would not be a simple airstrike but a high‑intensity operation that would trigger multiple risks, including oil price spikes, Gulf energy infrastructure, troop supply lines, and congressional authorizations.
Account:
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Total investment: $5.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 11 minutes ago, 1 smart money investor placed $5.6k on “Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by June 30?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 7.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 7.5%.
TheQuietRisk invested $5.6k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $1.1M. Across 49 settled trades in this sector, their win rate is 11/49 (22%), including 11 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001‑$0.15), the median historical investment amount is $3.1k.
The market rules require that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another country, occupying force, or internationally supported entity has established actual control on the island for the market to settle as “Yes”. Temporary raids, single landings, special operations, bombings, sabotage, offshore naval presence, or merely a brief interruption of Iranian activity do not count individually.
Kharg Island is Iran’s most critical oil export hub, located in the northern Persian Gulf off the Iranian coast. Reuters reported on March 14 that Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports; Axios on March 16 noted that the U.S. once considered directly seizing the island as a possible “economic strike” option because it would cut off a major source of foreign exchange for Iran and could force Tehran to concede on the Strait of Hormuz issue. However, this also means that actually taking the island would not be a simple airstrike but a high‑intensity operation that would trigger multiple risks, including oil price spikes, Gulf energy infrastructure, troop supply lines, and congressional authorizations.
Account:
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Total investment: $5.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
【Prediction Successful】Iran Closes Western Airports in Tehran Flight Information Zone, Insider Account Earns Another $100,000
On the prediction market Polymarket, the suspected insider account previously reported by this channel predicted “Iran will close its airspace by May 24,” and the current “Yes” probability is 99%. The account has already realized nearly $100,000 in profit.
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice about 5 hours ago that all airports in the western part of Tehran’s flight information zone are closed, and all civilian instrument‑flight‑rules passenger flights must obtain new permission from the Iranian civil aviation authority. Iranian officials did not explain the reason for the closure.
CBS reported 3 hours ago that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of military action against Iran, but a final decision has not yet been made. Trump had planned to leave Washington this weekend and possibly attend his eldest son’s wedding, but announced a few hours earlier that he would not attend, citing “the need to remain at the White House to handle government affairs.”
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the suspected insider account previously reported by this channel predicted “Iran will close its airspace by May 24,” and the current “Yes” probability is 99%. The account has already realized nearly $100,000 in profit.
Iran’s civil aviation authority issued a notice about 5 hours ago that all airports in the western part of Tehran’s flight information zone are closed, and all civilian instrument‑flight‑rules passenger flights must obtain new permission from the Iranian civil aviation authority. Iranian officials did not explain the reason for the closure.
CBS reported 3 hours ago that the Trump administration is preparing a new round of military action against Iran, but a final decision has not yet been made. Trump had planned to leave Washington this weekend and possibly attend his eldest son’s wedding, but announced a few hours earlier that he would not attend, citing “the need to remain at the White House to handle government affairs.”
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 smart investors put $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart investors placed $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.4%.
On the 20th, the U.S. Department of Justice released a superseding indictment formally charging 94‑year‑old former Cuban leader Raul Castro and five other Cuban defendants. The U.S. alleges his involvement in the February 24, 1996 Cuban military shoot‑down of two unarmed American civilian aircraft belonging to the “Brothers Rescue Organization,” charging Raul with one count of “conspiracy to kill a U.S. national,” four counts of “murder,” and two counts of “destruction of an aircraft.”
On the 22nd, Reuters reported that after the U.S. indictment, thousands of Cubans gathered in front of the U.S. Embassy in Havana to show support for Raul; Cuban President Díaz‑Canel, Prime Minister Márquez, as well as Raul’s daughter, son, and grandson who serves as his close security detail attended. His family said Raul “is in good condition, very calm, like an old guerrilla fighter.”
Today, the official Cuban newspaper published an article stating that Cuba “poses no threat to any neighboring country to launch an invasion, blockade, or overthrow its government,” and described recent U.S. military and political pressure on Cuba as a threat coming from the north.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opened a position and later took profit or cut loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919
Total investment: $9.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart investors placed $9.4k on “No” for “Will former Cuban leader Raul Castro be taken into U.S. custody before June 30?”, with an average purchase probability of 80.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 12.4%.
0x5f176a98 invested $5.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $75.6k. In that sector they have 63 settled trades with a win rate of 56/63 (89%), including 5 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $21.7k.
Trading4Fridge invested $4.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $62.4k. In that sector they have 823 settled trades with a win rate of 485/823 (59%), including 278 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751‑$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $918.
On the 20th, the U.S. Department of Justice released a superseding indictment formally charging 94‑year‑old former Cuban leader Raul Castro and five other Cuban defendants. The U.S. alleges his involvement in the February 24, 1996 Cuban military shoot‑down of two unarmed American civilian aircraft belonging to the “Brothers Rescue Organization,” charging Raul with one count of “conspiracy to kill a U.S. national,” four counts of “murder,” and two counts of “destruction of an aircraft.”
On the 22nd, Reuters reported that after the U.S. indictment, thousands of Cubans gathered in front of the U.S. Embassy in Havana to show support for Raul; Cuban President Díaz‑Canel, Prime Minister Márquez, as well as Raul’s daughter, son, and grandson who serves as his close security detail attended. His family said Raul “is in good condition, very calm, like an old guerrilla fighter.”
Today, the official Cuban newspaper published an article stating that Cuba “poses no threat to any neighboring country to launch an invasion, blockade, or overthrow its government,” and described recent U.S. military and political pressure on Cuba as a threat coming from the north.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant was not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but rather opened a position and later took profit or cut loss at a certain point.
Accounts:
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919
Total investment: $9.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $43.0k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $43.0k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
On the 23rd, Trump said the US‑Iran peace deal was “largely worked out,” with a potential agreement possibly including a formal declaration ending the war and allowing two months to continue discussing Iran’s nuclear program. The next day, he said he had asked negotiators “not to rush to close the deal,” believing time was on the United States’ side.
On the 24th, Axios cited a senior U.S. official who said the White House does not expect the US‑Iran agreement to be completed immediately; Iran’s top leadership may need several more days to approve the deal, and how Iran will hand over highly enriched uranium will still require negotiations over a 60‑day cycle. U.S. officials, while believing both sides are in a “very favorable position,” also acknowledged that the agreement is not yet final and could still be undermined or collapse.
This morning, Brent crude fell about 5% on Sunday, while spot gold rose over 1% to $4,560.09 per ounce. The core reason is that the market began investing in the possibility of a US‑Iran agreement ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Account: 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e
Total investment: $43.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $43.0k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by May 31, 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 41.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 21.5%.
On the 23rd, Trump said the US‑Iran peace deal was “largely worked out,” with a potential agreement possibly including a formal declaration ending the war and allowing two months to continue discussing Iran’s nuclear program. The next day, he said he had asked negotiators “not to rush to close the deal,” believing time was on the United States’ side.
On the 24th, Axios cited a senior U.S. official who said the White House does not expect the US‑Iran agreement to be completed immediately; Iran’s top leadership may need several more days to approve the deal, and how Iran will hand over highly enriched uranium will still require negotiations over a 60‑day cycle. U.S. officials, while believing both sides are in a “very favorable position,” also acknowledged that the agreement is not yet final and could still be undermined or collapse.
This morning, Brent crude fell about 5% on Sunday, while spot gold rose over 1% to $4,560.09 per ounce. The core reason is that the market began investing in the possibility of a US‑Iran agreement ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Account: 0xc8849a93e05a2ae1b49bb07787a9e0059bb4e17e
Total investment: $43.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
3 smart money investors put $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 64.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 46.5%.
The condition for “return to normal” requires IMF PortWatch to publish a 7‑day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz that reaches or exceeds 60 by June 30.
Xinhua reported on May 25 at 06:02 that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said on May 24 that 33 vessels—including tankers, merchant ships and container ships—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours after coordination and permission, with Iranian forces guaranteeing safety during the passages. Public data show a moving average of about 6.3 from May 11 to 17.
Today the Associated Press reported that the British Royal Navy has prepared the RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with sonar‑drone and mine‑clearing gear, near Gibraltar, intending to join France and allies in a Strait of Hormuz security operation; however, the UK stated that the operation will only commence after hostilities end. The Royal Navy commander responsible for mine‑threat mitigation said the first step is to clear a single lane, allowing roughly 700 stranded vessels to exit the bay, then clear the opposite inbound lane, and that clearing the entire strait could take “months or even years”.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $73.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $73.4k on “No” for “Will traffic in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before July?”, with an average purchase probability of 64.5% and the current “Yes” probability at 46.5%.
0x8e77537e invested $45.8k, with the market’s best related sector being US‑Iran, sector net profit $22.4k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 28/28 (100%), including 4 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $1.7k, and this investment is 26.9 times that median.
Huludubu invested $20.8k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $252k. In that sector they have 1,309 settled trades with a win rate of 899/1309 (69%), including 285 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $470, and this investment is 44.2 times that median.
0x29d33707 invested $6.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Iran, sector net profit $82.1k. In that sector they have 73 settled trades with a win rate of 54/73 (74%), including 30 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501‑$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $1.5k.
The condition for “return to normal” requires IMF PortWatch to publish a 7‑day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships” in the Strait of Hormuz that reaches or exceeds 60 by June 30.
Xinhua reported on May 25 at 06:02 that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy said on May 24 that 33 vessels—including tankers, merchant ships and container ships—had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 24 hours after coordination and permission, with Iranian forces guaranteeing safety during the passages. Public data show a moving average of about 6.3 from May 11 to 17.
Today the Associated Press reported that the British Royal Navy has prepared the RFA Lyme Bay, equipped with sonar‑drone and mine‑clearing gear, near Gibraltar, intending to join France and allies in a Strait of Hormuz security operation; however, the UK stated that the operation will only commence after hostilities end. The Royal Navy commander responsible for mine‑threat mitigation said the first step is to clear a single lane, allowing roughly 700 stranded vessels to exit the bay, then clear the opposite inbound lane, and that clearing the entire strait could take “months or even years”.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time to take profit or cut loss.
Accounts:
0x8e77537e059837d3c2ca5b4efe75e74e9498c4f3
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0x29d337076f24d135b7b2b08796edfff4e32cb2ed
Total investment: $73.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN