Trump Election Whale Adds $14k to US Strike on Iran Bet
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address—previously reported for profiting $320k on the US election—has added $14k over the past day to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a $67k position on "US strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 26¢, current price 21¢) and a $20k position on "US or Israel strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 31¢, current price 22¢).
Media sources suggest Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Greenland may be a smokescreen. Over the last 24 hours, US military deployments focused on Iran have visibly accelerated, challenging the assumption that Trump is merely posturing. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has gone into electromagnetic silence (AIS off) and is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea after January 24. Multiple KC-135 Stratotankers have deployed to Spain, replicating routes used for past long-range strikes. Simultaneously, a large fleet of F-15Es and C-17s has moved to Jordan to strengthen defenses against drones and missiles. Collectively, conditions for both offensive and defensive operations appear to be falling into place.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $87k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address—previously reported for profiting $320k on the US election—has added $14k over the past day to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a $67k position on "US strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 26¢, current price 21¢) and a $20k position on "US or Israel strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 31¢, current price 22¢).
Media sources suggest Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Greenland may be a smokescreen. Over the last 24 hours, US military deployments focused on Iran have visibly accelerated, challenging the assumption that Trump is merely posturing. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has gone into electromagnetic silence (AIS off) and is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea after January 24. Multiple KC-135 Stratotankers have deployed to Spain, replicating routes used for past long-range strikes. Simultaneously, a large fleet of F-15Es and C-17s has moved to Jordan to strengthen defenses against drones and missiles. Collectively, conditions for both offensive and defensive operations appear to be falling into place.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $87k
---------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 Suspicious Accounts Bet $23k on Long-Shot Candidate for Paris Mayor
On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts have wagered on the long-shot candidate Sarah Knafo to be elected Mayor of Paris. Her current probability of winning stands at just 4%.
The first round of the mayoral election is scheduled for March 15. The current frontrunners are Emmanuel Grégoire (55%) and Rachida Dati (39%). Knafo, whose platform focuses on anti-immigration policies, reserving social housing for local professionals, and fiscal austerity, is polling at approximately 7–10% in the first round.
Community analysis suggests these accounts may not necessarily expect Knafo to win the final election. Instead, they might be anticipating a rise in her support due to upcoming campaign pushes, strategic alliances, or controversial events. If her odds increase significantly before the election, these traders could exit their positions to take profit without waiting for the March 15 results.
Accounts: 0x7667949a358adc6b6000fdd9f106f200e39e6cfd 0x6bed2e1b515d22317ba71387adda65d30a55f104 0x4504feae60226541c990d76f2a828445df5f6f71 0x5ef3b45fd73c7bbd724ca870d080d1cef4eaadef 0x48abc486c27db8f4d920767d0339f9262078a612
Position: $23.5k
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts have wagered on the long-shot candidate Sarah Knafo to be elected Mayor of Paris. Her current probability of winning stands at just 4%.
The first round of the mayoral election is scheduled for March 15. The current frontrunners are Emmanuel Grégoire (55%) and Rachida Dati (39%). Knafo, whose platform focuses on anti-immigration policies, reserving social housing for local professionals, and fiscal austerity, is polling at approximately 7–10% in the first round.
Community analysis suggests these accounts may not necessarily expect Knafo to win the final election. Instead, they might be anticipating a rise in her support due to upcoming campaign pushes, strategic alliances, or controversial events. If her odds increase significantly before the election, these traders could exit their positions to take profit without waiting for the March 15 results.
Accounts: 0x7667949a358adc6b6000fdd9f106f200e39e6cfd 0x6bed2e1b515d22317ba71387adda65d30a55f104 0x4504feae60226541c990d76f2a828445df5f6f71 0x5ef3b45fd73c7bbd724ca870d080d1cef4eaadef 0x48abc486c27db8f4d920767d0339f9262078a612
Position: $23.5k
----------------------
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New Address Bets $8.5k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair; Previously Reported VC Continues Accumulation
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
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Zelenskyy WEF Attendance Odds Surge 80% to 90% Intraday
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched "Zelenskyy to attend World Economic Forum?" market dipped to a low of 5–10% at opening yesterday before rallying rapidly. The probability now hovers around 90%, though the order book shows a wide spread of approximately 10%. Total trading volume in the market is currently around $206k.
There is currently no confirmation that Zelenskyy will attend the 2026 Davos Forum in Switzerland, which concludes on January 23. However, he has dispatched a delegation of senior officials to the United States for discussions on security guarantees and post-war recovery; these negotiations are reportedly linked to consultations expected to continue during the Davos forum.
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched "Zelenskyy to attend World Economic Forum?" market dipped to a low of 5–10% at opening yesterday before rallying rapidly. The probability now hovers around 90%, though the order book shows a wide spread of approximately 10%. Total trading volume in the market is currently around $206k.
There is currently no confirmation that Zelenskyy will attend the 2026 Davos Forum in Switzerland, which concludes on January 23. However, he has dispatched a delegation of senior officials to the United States for discussions on security guarantees and post-war recovery; these negotiations are reportedly linked to consultations expected to continue during the Davos forum.
------------------------
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Trump Claims Greenland Framework Agreement at WEF; New Account Bets Nearly $40k on Acquisition
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $38,000 ten minutes ago that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The current probability for this market stands at 12%.
At the World Economic Forum on January 21, following a meeting with the NATO Secretary General, Trump announced a "framework for a future agreement on Greenland and the entire Arctic region," explicitly stating, "I don't want to use force, I won't use force."
During the forum, Trump emphasized that the focus of the Greenland issue is "Arctic security cooperation." He noted that the US would gain "increased military presence and mineral access" and mentioned the "Golden Dome" missile defense system as part of the collaboration.
Account: 0x6228177709d46db811388a7a1bc165af767bb2f7
Total Position: $38k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $38,000 ten minutes ago that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The current probability for this market stands at 12%.
At the World Economic Forum on January 21, following a meeting with the NATO Secretary General, Trump announced a "framework for a future agreement on Greenland and the entire Arctic region," explicitly stating, "I don't want to use force, I won't use force."
During the forum, Trump emphasized that the focus of the Greenland issue is "Arctic security cooperation." He noted that the US would gain "increased military presence and mineral access" and mentioned the "Golden Dome" missile defense system as part of the collaboration.
Account: 0x6228177709d46db811388a7a1bc165af767bb2f7
Total Position: $38k
------------------------
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Election Whale Adds $13k; Two New Addresses Bet $53k on US Strike on Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address that previously profited $320k on the US election has continued to build its position over the past day, adding $12.9k to the wager that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. Additionally, one new address wagered $46.4k on a US strike occurring between late February and late June, while another new address bet $7.8k on a strike before Jan 31. The probability of a strike by Jan 31 has fluctuated between 20% and 25% over the past three days.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that the current US global strategic deployment bears a strong resemblance to the "Midnight Hammer" strategy observed in June 2025, indicating that the US military is continuing to position assets for both offensive and defensive operations.
Accounts: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e 0x92072cd4f7e99c2b57184bd6a413a29cc8a04360 0x9b6a9088a71298edbff2119ca4482a20ba9849aa
Total Position: $153.9k
--------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address that previously profited $320k on the US election has continued to build its position over the past day, adding $12.9k to the wager that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. Additionally, one new address wagered $46.4k on a US strike occurring between late February and late June, while another new address bet $7.8k on a strike before Jan 31. The probability of a strike by Jan 31 has fluctuated between 20% and 25% over the past three days.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that the current US global strategic deployment bears a strong resemblance to the "Midnight Hammer" strategy observed in June 2025, indicating that the US military is continuing to position assets for both offensive and defensive operations.
Accounts: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e 0x92072cd4f7e99c2b57184bd6a413a29cc8a04360 0x9b6a9088a71298edbff2119ca4482a20ba9849aa
Total Position: $153.9k
--------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $13.8k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair; Suspicious Accounts Reported Over Past 9 Days Hold $150k+
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $13.8k over the past day that Rick Rieder will be the next Fed Chair (cost 30¢, current price 32¢). Over the last nine days, PolyBeats has reported multiple suspicious addresses betting on Rieder with entry prices ranging from 3¢ to 30¢; the total accumulated wager from these profitable addresses currently exceeds $150k.
In the past 24 hours, Reuters reported from Davos that Trump indicated the choice for the next Fed Chair may have narrowed to "just one." He specifically named Rick Rieder among the candidates, describing Rieder's interview as "very impressive." Reuters later reiterated—citing CNBC—that Trump is close to a decision and spoke highly of both Rieder and Kevin Hassett; Hassett also publicly praised Rieder as the "best bond guy." While no official nomination has been submitted, these comments are viewed by the market as a signal of Rieder's rising probability.
Accounts: 0xcaa64916768e40e9d17bcb82dd72495e34ed36a2 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $150k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $13.8k over the past day that Rick Rieder will be the next Fed Chair (cost 30¢, current price 32¢). Over the last nine days, PolyBeats has reported multiple suspicious addresses betting on Rieder with entry prices ranging from 3¢ to 30¢; the total accumulated wager from these profitable addresses currently exceeds $150k.
In the past 24 hours, Reuters reported from Davos that Trump indicated the choice for the next Fed Chair may have narrowed to "just one." He specifically named Rick Rieder among the candidates, describing Rieder's interview as "very impressive." Reuters later reiterated—citing CNBC—that Trump is close to a decision and spoke highly of both Rieder and Kevin Hassett; Hassett also publicly praised Rieder as the "best bond guy." While no official nomination has been submitted, these comments are viewed by the market as a signal of Rieder's rising probability.
Accounts: 0xcaa64916768e40e9d17bcb82dd72495e34ed36a2 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $150k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Whale Bets $200k on Brazil Election; Wallet Holds Over $3M
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account wagered $200,000 on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The position was acquired at an average price of 54¢, and the current market probability stands at 53%. Fund tracing suggests the account likely belongs to X user UnknwnFnd, whose on-chain wallet assets exceed $3 million.
The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Lula, currently serving his third term (2023–2026) after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is eligible to run for a fourth term following a 2025 Superior Electoral Court ruling that clarified his previous non-consecutive terms do not violate term limits. He currently leads the polls with approximately 45–50% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of the former president—trails in second place with 22%.
Account: 0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total Position: $201k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account wagered $200,000 on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The position was acquired at an average price of 54¢, and the current market probability stands at 53%. Fund tracing suggests the account likely belongs to X user UnknwnFnd, whose on-chain wallet assets exceed $3 million.
The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Lula, currently serving his third term (2023–2026) after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is eligible to run for a fourth term following a 2025 Superior Electoral Court ruling that clarified his previous non-consecutive terms do not violate term limits. He currently leads the polls with approximately 45–50% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of the former president—trails in second place with 22%.
Account: 0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total Position: $201k
------------------------
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Three New Addresses Bet $23.6k on US Strike on Iran Within Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $5.8k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Year-End
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
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New Address Bets $19k on Israel Striking Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
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AI Model Race Heats Up; New Market Shows GPT-5.3 Unlikely to Launch This Week
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the newly created market "GPT-5.3 released by Jan 31?" stands at just 3%.
Rumors regarding GPT-5.3 stem from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's interviews and X posts in late 2025, where he hinted at a "major model breakthrough in early 2026." Community speculation suggests this may refer to a new iteration of the GPT-5 family—potentially GPT-5.3—with a focus on enhanced multimodal capabilities, reasoning, and efficiency.
There are rumors that the internal model previously known by the codename "Garlic" is, in fact, the upcoming GPT-5.3. Given Altman's prior comments regarding significant model breakthroughs, the community anticipates that GPT-5.3 could be revealed to the public in the near future.
---------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the newly created market "GPT-5.3 released by Jan 31?" stands at just 3%.
Rumors regarding GPT-5.3 stem from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's interviews and X posts in late 2025, where he hinted at a "major model breakthrough in early 2026." Community speculation suggests this may refer to a new iteration of the GPT-5 family—potentially GPT-5.3—with a focus on enhanced multimodal capabilities, reasoning, and efficiency.
There are rumors that the internal model previously known by the codename "Garlic" is, in fact, the upcoming GPT-5.3. Given Altman's prior comments regarding significant model breakthroughs, the community anticipates that GPT-5.3 could be revealed to the public in the near future.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Whale Bets $49k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by April; Previously Profited $400k on Israel-Hamas Truce
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that wagered $112,000 last October on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire—securing a profit of $394,000—has now placed a $49,000 bet that the Russia-Ukraine war will end before April. The probability for a "Yes" outcome currently stands at 15%.
From January 23–25, the US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first high-level direct talks since the full-scale outbreak of the war in 2022. Although parties labeled the meeting "constructive," no breakthrough was reached. A subsequent round of negotiations is tentatively scheduled for February 1.
Trump has publicly declared that a peace deal is "quite close," pressuring both sides to reach an agreement. Zelenskyy later stated that a bilateral security agreement with the US is "100% ready."
Account: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Position: $49k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that wagered $112,000 last October on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire—securing a profit of $394,000—has now placed a $49,000 bet that the Russia-Ukraine war will end before April. The probability for a "Yes" outcome currently stands at 15%.
From January 23–25, the US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first high-level direct talks since the full-scale outbreak of the war in 2022. Although parties labeled the meeting "constructive," no breakthrough was reached. A subsequent round of negotiations is tentatively scheduled for February 1.
Trump has publicly declared that a peace deal is "quite close," pressuring both sides to reach an agreement. Zelenskyy later stated that a bilateral security agreement with the US is "100% ready."
Account: 0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Position: $49k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets One Battle After Another to Win Best Picture at 98th Oscars
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
-------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $4.4k at an average price of 70¢ that One Battle After Another will win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. The current probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 69%.
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 15, 2026, following the nomination announcement on January 22. As a World War II epic, One Battle After Another secured 9 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Cinematography. The film has garnered favor among voters for Director Christopher Nolan's signature visual impact and profound anti-war themes.
Account: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d
Position: $4.4k
-------------------
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New Address Bets $11k on US Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $5.8k within the last hour to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a total position of $11k on this outcome, with an average cost of 18¢. The current market price stands at 15¢.
Over the past two days, Iranian authorities unveiled a new mural in a Tehran square depicting a destroyed US aircraft carrier accompanied by the warning "You reap what you sow," serving as a direct caution against US military action. This display coincides with the deployment of a US carrier strike group to the Middle East. A senior Iranian official stated that any US military strike would be regarded as "total war," adding that the country's armed forces are on high alert in response to the movement of US troops into the region.
Account: 0x6452018b718265464dcf6d391db99f56ba899874
Position: $11k
------------------
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New Address Adds $1.5k to Khamenei Ouster Bet by Jan 31; Total Position $6.6k
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last four hours, a new address added $1.5k at 3¢ to the wager that Ayatollah Khamenei will step down before Jan 31. The address now holds a total position of $6.6k with an average cost of 8¢, while the current market price sits at just 1¢.
Recently, nationwide protests in Iran have faced a massive crackdown. Activists report at least 6,126 deaths and over 40,000 arrests, marking the most severe internal unrest in decades. The government has implemented an unprecedented, prolonged internet blackout and responded with force. Iranian authorities deny the high death toll, blaming the unrest on external forces, while regional Iranian proxy groups have issued strong statements, keeping tensions high but currently in a pre-escalation standoff.
Account: 0x06ef2c450fd28f7991b200c73e3eb5c6a2674859
Position: $6.6k
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Two New Addresses Bet $17.5k Against Saturday US Gov Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last eight hours, a new address wagered $14.1k that the US government will not shut down before this Saturday (Jan 31), entering at an average price of 25¢. Another new address bet $3.4k at an average price of 22¢. The current trading price for "No" is 21¢.
The US Congress remains deeply divided over the ~$64.4 billion Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget. Specifically, Senate Democrats have refused to back the current draft due to conflicts over immigration enforcement reform, increasing the likelihood of a partial shutdown before the January 30 deadline. With the deadline just days away, behind-the-scenes negotiations are ongoing to prevent a partial or full government shutdown.
Accounts: 0x276f765f8d99eb45a7f4126ac7ee331f541ed05e 0x5394e93e653e0e84af2e9219eeff64530aa4e47c
Position: $17.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Account with 12-Win Streak on US-Iran Strikes Bets $24.6k on Attack Before March
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created in January—which has executed 16 trades, 12 of which were bets on whether the US would strike Iran, boasting a 100% win rate—has wagered $24.6k that the US will strike Iran before February 28. The position was opened at 45¢, and the current probability stands at 44%.
A US Carrier Strike Group has entered the Middle East region. Trump stated that "large forces" are moving toward Iran, though he hopes they will not need to be used. He also claimed that Iran has guaranteed to stop killings and executions and has "contacted multiple times wanting to negotiate."
Account: 0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91
Position: $24.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Opinion Airdrop Page Live; Points Campaign Ending; Market Bets on TGE Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Opinion to launch governance token by Mar 31?" currently stands at a high 96%.
Currently, the Opinion Labs website has launched a "YOUR AIRDROP ALLOCATION" feature, allowing users to distribute their airdrop to a maximum of five wallets. The official X account recently posted a screenshot of this page with the caption "have you seen what's new?", a move interpreted by the community as a hint that the Token Generation Event (TGE) is imminent. The team also stated that the points campaign is entering its final stages this week, with the points system set to gradually close down.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Fed Expected to Hold Rates (99%); 7 New Accounts Bet $100k on Surprise Change
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to avoid political risk or pressure from criminal investigations. The mainstream view maintains that the Fed's independence remains robust, making such political influence on monetary policy highly unlikely.
Accounts: 0xeafb683cfcd9d67ba4e52ef7ef0d8ecbd6e684c7 0x57b22abadfcee23cbcbc875d1d6d89611369708c 0x8f7f1a21f901c49c80c8721ff9a28ea91f47492b 0x677ba84534e646d8f7eaa0189c46043230464c28 0xc413682b008fe27f6d92afad55d55b2c10c2370a 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf5466de09b6f6c5eff3aa78deb7e4c0bb1411e14
Position: $100k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, seven new accounts created this month have wagered a total of $100,000 over the past two weeks that the Federal Reserve will change interest rates (either a hike or a cut) at this week's meeting. These positions currently show an unrealized loss of $63,000.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on January 30. With the current target range at 5.25–5.50%, market expectations for rates to remain unchanged are as high as 99%. January's non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly strong (adding over 200k jobs), and Core PCE inflation cooled to 2.8%. Chair Powell has emphasized data-dependent decision-making, and based on current economic data, the market anticipates no change this month.
However, given Trump's repeated public criticism of Powell and hints at potential intervention in Fed independence, some bettors speculate that Powell might unexpectedly cut rates as a "peace offering" to avoid political risk or pressure from criminal investigations. The mainstream view maintains that the Fed's independence remains robust, making such political influence on monetary policy highly unlikely.
Accounts: 0xeafb683cfcd9d67ba4e52ef7ef0d8ecbd6e684c7 0x57b22abadfcee23cbcbc875d1d6d89611369708c 0x8f7f1a21f901c49c80c8721ff9a28ea91f47492b 0x677ba84534e646d8f7eaa0189c46043230464c28 0xc413682b008fe27f6d92afad55d55b2c10c2370a 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf5466de09b6f6c5eff3aa78deb7e4c0bb1411e14
Position: $100k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
2 Whales Bet on Long Shot: $10.7k on Treasury Sec for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have been continuously buying "Yes" shares on Scott Bessent to be selected as the next Fed Chair. The total position size is $10.7k, with the current market probability at just 4%.
Of the two accounts, "HD2"—previously reported by this channel as a suspected crypto VC-linked address—is currently sitting on over $170k in unrealized gains from betting on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair. The other account, "Aeglos," holds only one other position: a massive $257k wager that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month.
As the current Treasury Secretary, Bessent has repeatedly stated he has no interest in the Fed Chair role, affirming his commitment to executing Trump's tariff and tax agenda. However, given Bessent's extreme loyalty, Trump has previously mentioned he wanted Bessent to "lead the Fed." Consistent with Trump's management style, if he becomes dissatisfied with frontrunners like Warsh or Rieder, he could potentially force a transfer or mandate a dual role for Bessent.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0xb66582886125a2a2ea966f1ea60ea60b6ecabf8f
Position: $10.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN