【Prediction Successful】Ed Gallrein Defeats Seven-Term Incumbent Congressman Thomas Massie, Secures Republican Nomination for KY-04 District
On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel has reported three times since May 6 that “smart money” predicted Thomas Massie “No” and Ed Gallrein “Yes” in the “Kentucky 4th District Republican Primary Winner” trading event.
Local time on May 19, an unofficial count on the Kentucky Secretary of State’s website showed that after all 120 counties reported, Gallrein received 57,822 votes (55%) and Massie received 47,539 votes (45%); Reuters, citing CNN’s tally, reported that with 99% of votes counted, Gallrein led 54.9% to 45.1%.
The race attracted national attention because it is seen as a showcase of Trump’s purge of dissenters within the party. Massie has repeatedly angered Trump by opposing the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax and spending plan, pushing for the release of Epstein files, criticizing the war in Iran, and questioning aid to Israel; external funding supporting Gallrein and pro‑Israel groups poured in large sums, driving primary advertising spending to about $32 million, making it the most expensive House primary in U.S. history.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, this channel has reported three times since May 6 that “smart money” predicted Thomas Massie “No” and Ed Gallrein “Yes” in the “Kentucky 4th District Republican Primary Winner” trading event.
Local time on May 19, an unofficial count on the Kentucky Secretary of State’s website showed that after all 120 counties reported, Gallrein received 57,822 votes (55%) and Massie received 47,539 votes (45%); Reuters, citing CNN’s tally, reported that with 99% of votes counted, Gallrein led 54.9% to 45.1%.
The race attracted national attention because it is seen as a showcase of Trump’s purge of dissenters within the party. Massie has repeatedly angered Trump by opposing the “Big Beautiful Bill” tax and spending plan, pushing for the release of Epstein files, criticizing the war in Iran, and questioning aid to Israel; external funding supporting Gallrein and pro‑Israel groups poured in large sums, driving primary advertising spending to about $32 million, making it the most expensive House primary in U.S. history.
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3 accounts invested $8.1k “Yes” in “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, three accounts invested $8.1k “Yes” in “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 27.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 25.0%.
The market rules do not assess whether Google releases a new model; they evaluate, at 12:00 PM EST on June 30, 2026, which company holds the highest‑ranked model in the Rank zone of the LMArena text leaderboard after style control is disabled. If model ranks tie, the Arena score and unrounded underlying score are compared; if still tied, alphabetical order of company names within the market group is used.
Google announced the Gemini 3.5 series at I/O 2026, stating that Gemini 3.5 Flash outperforms Gemini 3.1 Pro on coding, agent tasks, and multimodal benchmarks, and runs about four times faster than other leading models. Google also indicated that Gemini 3.5 Pro is already in internal use and will launch next month.
Gemini 3.5 Flash now appears on the LMArena text leaderboard. The list shows Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at rank 1, Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at rank 2, and Gemini 3.5 Flash at rank 3.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity, this participant is not simply investing on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
0x048215305cbcf7cc790735bf00119551d75c6b0a
0xa7d2ec6680f4e5f6ab0da244d8006eec3e20f954
Total investment: $8.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three accounts invested $8.1k “Yes” in “Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 27.1% and a current “Yes” probability of 25.0%.
tja invested $4.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Technology, sector net profit $26.9k. In that sector they have 203 settled trades with a win rate of 154/203 (76%); 51 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $116, making this investment 38.0 times that median.
dumbfuqliquidityprovider invested $1.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Technology, sector net profit $28.0k. In that sector they have 217 settled trades with a win rate of 116/217 (53%); 51 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $169.
0xa7d2ec66 invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Deep Understanding, sector net profit $8.4k. In that sector they have 30 settled trades with a win rate of 21/30 (70%); 15 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $6, making this investment 396.5 times that median.
The market rules do not assess whether Google releases a new model; they evaluate, at 12:00 PM EST on June 30, 2026, which company holds the highest‑ranked model in the Rank zone of the LMArena text leaderboard after style control is disabled. If model ranks tie, the Arena score and unrounded underlying score are compared; if still tied, alphabetical order of company names within the market group is used.
Google announced the Gemini 3.5 series at I/O 2026, stating that Gemini 3.5 Flash outperforms Gemini 3.1 Pro on coding, agent tasks, and multimodal benchmarks, and runs about four times faster than other leading models. Google also indicated that Gemini 3.5 Pro is already in internal use and will launch next month.
Gemini 3.5 Flash now appears on the LMArena text leaderboard. The list shows Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at rank 1, Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at rank 2, and Gemini 3.5 Flash at rank 3.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical activity, this participant is not simply investing on whether the event occurs; they may close positions for profit or loss at specific times.
Accounts:
0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
0x048215305cbcf7cc790735bf00119551d75c6b0a
0xa7d2ec6680f4e5f6ab0da244d8006eec3e20f954
Total investment: $8.1k
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【Prediction Successful】Ceasefire with Lebanon extended by 45 days, Israel still conducting attacks in Lebanon
In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that two smart‑money participants placed $3.0k on “Yes” for “Will Israel announce a ceasefire extension before May 16?”. The market has now settled as “Yes”.
After the United States hosted two days of talks between Israel and Lebanon on May 14 and 15, the cease‑fire arrangement from April 16 will be extended by 45 days to facilitate further progress. Reuters reported on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire by 45 days, and the U.S. State Department said the parties will continue political‑track negotiations on June 2 and 3.
It should be noted that an extension of the ceasefire does not mean the conflict has ended. Al Jazeera reported on May 15 that on the same day the extension was announced, Israel was still carrying out attacks in Lebanon that caused casualties; the Associated Press reported on May 18 that the death toll in Lebanon from the latest round of Israel‑Hezbollah fighting had already exceeded 3,000, and hostilities continued despite the nominal ceasefire.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that two smart‑money participants placed $3.0k on “Yes” for “Will Israel announce a ceasefire extension before May 16?”. The market has now settled as “Yes”.
After the United States hosted two days of talks between Israel and Lebanon on May 14 and 15, the cease‑fire arrangement from April 16 will be extended by 45 days to facilitate further progress. Reuters reported on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire by 45 days, and the U.S. State Department said the parties will continue political‑track negotiations on June 2 and 3.
It should be noted that an extension of the ceasefire does not mean the conflict has ended. Al Jazeera reported on May 15 that on the same day the extension was announced, Israel was still carrying out attacks in Lebanon that caused casualties; the Associated Press reported on May 18 that the death toll in Lebanon from the latest round of Israel‑Hezbollah fighting had already exceeded 3,000, and hostilities continued despite the nominal ceasefire.
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【Prediction Successful】Jury Rules Musk Loses Against Altman/OpenAI
In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that two smart‑money participants placed $9.5k on “No” for “Will Elon Musk Win His Case Against Sam Altman?”. The market’s “Yes” probability has now fallen to 0.25%.
Reuters reported on May 18 that a federal jury in the Northern District of California, Oakland, unanimously ruled that Musk lost, finding that his core claims against Sam Altman, OpenAI and other defendants were time‑barred. The jury determined that Musk waited too long to sue after OpenAI shifted to a for‑profit structure in 2019, so he cannot continue to pursue claims of breach or deviation from the founding mission.
Axios reported on May 18 that Musk’s lawyers said they will appeal and that the jury’s decision will not be the final step.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, this channel previously reported that two smart‑money participants placed $9.5k on “No” for “Will Elon Musk Win His Case Against Sam Altman?”. The market’s “Yes” probability has now fallen to 0.25%.
Reuters reported on May 18 that a federal jury in the Northern District of California, Oakland, unanimously ruled that Musk lost, finding that his core claims against Sam Altman, OpenAI and other defendants were time‑barred. The jury determined that Musk waited too long to sue after OpenAI shifted to a for‑profit structure in 2019, so he cannot continue to pursue claims of breach or deviation from the founding mission.
Axios reported on May 18 that Musk’s lawyers said they will appeal and that the jury’s decision will not be the final step.
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1 new account invested $4.7k "Yes" on "Will Chong Won Oh win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?"
On prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.7k "Yes" on "Will Chong Won Oh win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?", with an average buy-in probability of 75.6% and current "Yes" probability at 77.5%.
7 hours ago, Yonhap News reported that K-Stat Research conducted a wireless telephone survey from May 17 to 19, showing in the Seoul mayoral election, Chong Won Oh's support rate was 45%, Woo Seo-ung 34%, a gap of 11 percentage points, exceeding the ±3.5 percentage point margin of error; Chong Won Oh led slightly in the strong southern district including Gangnam, Rui Cao, Songpa, and Gangdong with 40% versus 38%.
Yonhap News today reported that the 6.3 local election and parliamentary by-election campaign period officially opened on May 21, with 13 days of total mobilization before the June 2 deadline; after the official campaign started, Democratic Party leader Chung Kyung-rae focused on supporting Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won Oh.
Account:
0xbec5e7733aee2244c54b668112f23a2b47454c01
Total investment: $4.7k
---------------------------------
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On prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.7k "Yes" on "Will Chong Won Oh win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?", with an average buy-in probability of 75.6% and current "Yes" probability at 77.5%.
7 hours ago, Yonhap News reported that K-Stat Research conducted a wireless telephone survey from May 17 to 19, showing in the Seoul mayoral election, Chong Won Oh's support rate was 45%, Woo Seo-ung 34%, a gap of 11 percentage points, exceeding the ±3.5 percentage point margin of error; Chong Won Oh led slightly in the strong southern district including Gangnam, Rui Cao, Songpa, and Gangdong with 40% versus 38%.
Yonhap News today reported that the 6.3 local election and parliamentary by-election campaign period officially opened on May 21, with 13 days of total mobilization before the June 2 deadline; after the official campaign started, Democratic Party leader Chung Kyung-rae focused on supporting Seoul mayoral candidate Chong Won Oh.
Account:
0xbec5e7733aee2244c54b668112f23a2b47454c01
Total investment: $4.7k
---------------------------------
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3 smart money investors put $24.6k on “No” for “Will the US invade Cuba in 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $24.6k on “No” for “Will the US invade Cuba in 2026?”, with an average buy probability of 76.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 24.0%.
The Associated Press reported on May 20 that the U.S. Department of Justice formally charged former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, accusing him of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two Miami exile civilian aircraft; Trump called it “a very important day,” but also said he did not see a need to further escalate toward Cuba. Axios reported on May 20 that Secretary of State Rubi Ochoa released a Spanish‑language video to the Cuban people on Cuban Independence Day, saying the United States is willing to start a “new relationship,” while attributing Cuba’s difficulties to the military‑linked commercial group GAESA and the current regime.
Axios reported on May 17 that U.S. intelligence believes Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has discussed plans to attack the Guantanamo Bay base, U.S. warships, and even Key West, Florida; the same report said CIA Director Ragone Cliff recently traveled to Havana to warn Cuba against participating in hostile actions. Reuters reported on May 18 that Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that U.S. military action would lead to “an unquantifiable, blood‑filled situation,” and said Cuba does not pose a threat; Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez emphasized that Cuba has the right to self‑defend under the UN Charter.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
Total investment: $24.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors placed $24.6k on “No” for “Will the US invade Cuba in 2026?”, with an average buy probability of 76.0%. The current “Yes” probability is 24.0%.
paddaa invested $7.7k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $77.1k. In that sector they have 1,089 settled trades with a win rate of 615/1,089 (56%), including 223 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.5k.
GollumGekko invested $4.6k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $103k. In that sector they have 1,819 settled trades with a win rate of 1,320/1,819 (73%), including 150 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $464.
0xdc4b0698 invested $12.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $27.0k. In that sector they have 165 settled trades with a win rate of 138/165 (84%), including 16 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $2.8k.
The Associated Press reported on May 20 that the U.S. Department of Justice formally charged former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, accusing him of involvement in the 1996 shoot‑down of two Miami exile civilian aircraft; Trump called it “a very important day,” but also said he did not see a need to further escalate toward Cuba. Axios reported on May 20 that Secretary of State Rubi Ochoa released a Spanish‑language video to the Cuban people on Cuban Independence Day, saying the United States is willing to start a “new relationship,” while attributing Cuba’s difficulties to the military‑linked commercial group GAESA and the current regime.
Axios reported on May 17 that U.S. intelligence believes Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has discussed plans to attack the Guantanamo Bay base, U.S. warships, and even Key West, Florida; the same report said CIA Director Ragone Cliff recently traveled to Havana to warn Cuba against participating in hostile actions. Reuters reported on May 18 that Cuban President Díaz‑Canel warned that U.S. military action would lead to “an unquantifiable, blood‑filled situation,” and said Cuba does not pose a threat; Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez emphasized that Cuba has the right to self‑defend under the UN Charter.
Note: Based on the trader’s historical profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close positions at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
0xdc4b06981e74fe11585438eb40f10bd79f43dbca
Total investment: $24.6k
---------------------------------
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2 smart money investors have put $133.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $133.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 37.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 40.5%.
Axios reported on May 18 that senior U.S. officials believe Iran’s latest counter‑proposal is insufficient, and if Iran does not adjust its stance, the United States may resume military action. Reuters reported on May 20 that Trump, speaking at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, said the United States might have to strike Iran more forcefully but would first see if a deal can be reached; he also said the U.S.–Iran talks have entered the final stage, with the key question being whether the United States “finishes the remaining work” or Iran signs the document.
Reuters reported on May 15 that Trump said both the United States and China believe Iran must not possess nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened; however, China has not publicly pledged to pressure Iran, only stating that the war should not have happened and has no reason to continue.
Recently, several Republican primary results have been very favorable to the Trump camp, with candidates who have opposed Trump, such as Bill Cassidy and Thomas Massie, being cleared out. The Associated Press reported on May 19 that the U.S. Senate advanced a procedural motion limiting Trump’s war powers in Iran by a vote of 50‑47, requiring Trump to obtain congressional authorization or withdraw U.S. forces if he continues unauthorized military actions in or against Iran.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Total investment: $133.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have placed $133.4k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 37.6% and the current “Yes” probability at 40.5%.
mombil invested $68.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, which has a net profit of $498k. In that sector, they have a win rate of 1,424/2,191 (65%) across 2,191 settled trades, including 676 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $415, making this investment 164.7 times that median.
Arbguy invested $64.9k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, which has a net profit of $498k. In that sector, they have a win rate of 137/361 (38%) across 361 settled trades, including 69 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $24.3k.
Axios reported on May 18 that senior U.S. officials believe Iran’s latest counter‑proposal is insufficient, and if Iran does not adjust its stance, the United States may resume military action. Reuters reported on May 20 that Trump, speaking at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, said the United States might have to strike Iran more forcefully but would first see if a deal can be reached; he also said the U.S.–Iran talks have entered the final stage, with the key question being whether the United States “finishes the remaining work” or Iran signs the document.
Reuters reported on May 15 that Trump said both the United States and China believe Iran must not possess nuclear weapons and that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened; however, China has not publicly pledged to pressure Iran, only stating that the war should not have happened and has no reason to continue.
Recently, several Republican primary results have been very favorable to the Trump camp, with candidates who have opposed Trump, such as Bill Cassidy and Thomas Massie, being cleared out. The Associated Press reported on May 19 that the U.S. Senate advanced a procedural motion limiting Trump’s war powers in Iran by a vote of 50‑47, requiring Trump to obtain congressional authorization or withdraw U.S. forces if he continues unauthorized military actions in or against Iran.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711
0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Total investment: $133.4k
---------------------------------
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4 smart investors put $28.5k on “Yes” for “Will Iran close its airspace by May 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart investors placed $28.5k on “Yes” for “Will Iran close its airspace by May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 38.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 31.5%.
Agence France‑Presse, citing Pakistan’s *Business Recorder* on May 21, reported that Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Bagheri said Iran has received a new U.S. proposal and is reviewing it; Pakistan’s interior minister visited Tehran to help the two sides exchange information. Iran also reiterated that its demands in the peace talks include the release of frozen assets and an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.
Reuters on May 20 quoted Trump at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy saying the United States may have to hit Iran harder but will first see if a deal can be reached; he added that negotiations are in their final stage and the question is whether the U.S. will “finish the remaining tasks” or Iran will sign the documents. Axios on May 20 reported that Qatar, Pakistan and other regional mediators drafted a new peace memorandum, but a tense call between Trump and Netanyahu saw Netanyahu leaning toward resuming war to further weaken Iran’s military and critical infrastructure, while Trump remained wavering between a deal and renewed strikes.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply wagering on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xff9987b272e9730e9b23d03d9cee2e49d8d75602
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8
0xbc43a2f0deb85ba4ad316300762972089c911540
0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Total investment: $28.5k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart investors placed $28.5k on “Yes” for “Will Iran close its airspace by May 31?”, with an average entry probability of 38.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 31.5%.
0xff9987b2 invested $12.5k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $83.3k. In that sector they have 44 settled trades with a win rate of 29/44 (66%), including 20 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.401‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $7.3k.
classified invested $5.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $523k. In that sector they have 1,284 settled trades with a win rate of 714/1,284 (56%), including 127 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.251‑$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k.
westminster invested $9.8k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $184k. In that sector they have 60 settled trades with a win rate of 42/60 (70%), including 21 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.351‑$0.5), the median historical investment amount is $7.8k.
0xb8fe807a invested $1.0k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $82.6k. In that sector they have 402 settled trades with a win rate of 252/402 (63%), including 66 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.301‑$0.45), the median historical investment amount is $232.
Agence France‑Presse, citing Pakistan’s *Business Recorder* on May 21, reported that Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Bagheri said Iran has received a new U.S. proposal and is reviewing it; Pakistan’s interior minister visited Tehran to help the two sides exchange information. Iran also reiterated that its demands in the peace talks include the release of frozen assets and an end to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.
Reuters on May 20 quoted Trump at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy saying the United States may have to hit Iran harder but will first see if a deal can be reached; he added that negotiations are in their final stage and the question is whether the U.S. will “finish the remaining tasks” or Iran will sign the documents. Axios on May 20 reported that Qatar, Pakistan and other regional mediators drafted a new peace memorandum, but a tense call between Trump and Netanyahu saw Netanyahu leaning toward resuming war to further weaken Iran’s military and critical infrastructure, while Trump remained wavering between a deal and renewed strikes.
Note: Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not simply wagering on whether the event occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0xff9987b272e9730e9b23d03d9cee2e49d8d75602
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8
0xbc43a2f0deb85ba4ad316300762972089c911540
0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Total investment: $28.5k
---------------------------------
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「Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?」the “No” probability rose from 69% to 77%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “No” probability for “Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?” increased from 69% to 77%.
To date, Rockstar’s official Newswire and the GTA VI website still only display the previously released Trailer 1, Trailer 2, and the announcement made on November 6 2025 that the game’s release has been moved to November 19 2026; Take‑Two previously announced that it will release its FY 2026 Q4 and full‑year results after the U.S. market close on May 21.
Recently, the “Yes” side has been driven mainly by pre‑order rumors. TechRadar reported on May 15 that a Best Buy member‑alliance email appeared to show a GTA VI physical‑edition pre‑order window from May 18 to May 21, leading the market and fans to speculate that Trailer 3 or the pre‑order might appear simultaneously. However, PC Gamer, Tom’s Guide, and GamesRadar all noted after May 18 that no official pre‑order or new trailer was released on that date, and the related rumors seemed more like a mis‑sent or prematurely scheduled retail promotion rather than a marketing cadence confirmed by Rockstar.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 10 minutes, the “No” probability for “Will GTA VI release another official trailer before May 31?” increased from 69% to 77%.
To date, Rockstar’s official Newswire and the GTA VI website still only display the previously released Trailer 1, Trailer 2, and the announcement made on November 6 2025 that the game’s release has been moved to November 19 2026; Take‑Two previously announced that it will release its FY 2026 Q4 and full‑year results after the U.S. market close on May 21.
Recently, the “Yes” side has been driven mainly by pre‑order rumors. TechRadar reported on May 15 that a Best Buy member‑alliance email appeared to show a GTA VI physical‑edition pre‑order window from May 18 to May 21, leading the market and fans to speculate that Trailer 3 or the pre‑order might appear simultaneously. However, PC Gamer, Tom’s Guide, and GamesRadar all noted after May 18 that no official pre‑order or new trailer was released on that date, and the related rumors seemed more like a mis‑sent or prematurely scheduled retail promotion rather than a marketing cadence confirmed by Rockstar.
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1 smart money investor invested $1.7k “No” on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30” with the “No” outcome, at an average buy probability of 77.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 19.0%.
Today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told state television that Iran is seeking to establish a mechanism with Oman to ensure the “sustainable security” of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to cooperate with coastal states on a “safe shipping agreement.”
Turkish President Erdoğan told Trump that he welcomes an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and believes a “reasonable solution” can be found for the disputed issues; Turkey has maintained close contact with Washington, Tehran, and the mediating party Pakistan.
Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the biggest obstacle to U.S.–Iran talks is a lack of trust, but if Washington is willing to reach a “fair, balanced agreement,” negotiations can move forward; he also said Iran welcomes diplomatic support from other countries, especially China.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor placed $1.7k on “Whether another Iranian diplomat will be expelled before June 30” with the “No” outcome, at an average buy probability of 77.8%. The current probability of “Yes” is 19.0%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.7k, and the market’s top related sector is Geopolitics, with a sector net profit of $24.8k. Across 219 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 160/219 (73%), including 50 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701‑$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $1.2k.
Today, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told state television that Iran is seeking to establish a mechanism with Oman to ensure the “sustainable security” of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to cooperate with coastal states on a “safe shipping agreement.”
Turkish President Erdoğan told Trump that he welcomes an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and believes a “reasonable solution” can be found for the disputed issues; Turkey has maintained close contact with Washington, Tehran, and the mediating party Pakistan.
Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the biggest obstacle to U.S.–Iran talks is a lack of trust, but if Washington is willing to reach a “fair, balanced agreement,” negotiations can move forward; he also said Iran welcomes diplomatic support from other countries, especially China.
Note: Based on the trader’s past activity profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position for profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” – “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula has a first‑round support rate of 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation data, Renan Santos receives 36.1% support among voters aged 16‑24, above Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Renan Santos will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” – “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula has a first‑round support rate of 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation data, Renan Santos receives 36.1% support among voters aged 16‑24, above Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
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1 smart money investor placed $1.4k on “Yes” for “U.S. and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, half an hour ago, 1 smart money investor put $1.4k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 4.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 4.2%.
Xinhua reported 2 hours ago that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange information through a Pakistani mediator, and Iran is reviewing the U.S.’s latest position; Tasnim News Agency, citing sources close to the Iranian negotiation team, said the United States submitted a 14‑point proposal three days ago and has already sent a new draft to Tehran via Pakistan. The Pakistani mediator is trying in Tehran to narrow the textual gap between the parties, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.
Reuters reported the same direction 2 minutes later and added President Trump’s latest statement: he said he is willing to wait a few more days for a “correct answer” from Iran, but if no agreement is reached, the U.S. is prepared to resume actions quickly. Reuters also noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if attacks on Iran recur, the promised regional war could expand beyond the region.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe36f5735f5bc12c36b361a599e8603d56f7ccd91
Total investment: $1.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, half an hour ago, 1 smart money investor put $1.4k on “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 22 2026?” “Yes”, with an average entry probability of 4.1% and the current “Yes” probability at 4.2%.
0xe36f5735 invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $34.6k. In this sector they have 8 settled trades with a win rate of 8/8 (100%), and there are 0 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price above $0.95.
Xinhua reported 2 hours ago that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri said the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange information through a Pakistani mediator, and Iran is reviewing the U.S.’s latest position; Tasnim News Agency, citing sources close to the Iranian negotiation team, said the United States submitted a 14‑point proposal three days ago and has already sent a new draft to Tehran via Pakistan. The Pakistani mediator is trying in Tehran to narrow the textual gap between the parties, but a final agreement has not yet been reached.
Reuters reported the same direction 2 minutes later and added President Trump’s latest statement: he said he is willing to wait a few more days for a “correct answer” from Iran, but if no agreement is reached, the U.S. is prepared to resume actions quickly. Reuters also noted that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that if attacks on Iran recur, the promised regional war could expand beyond the region.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Account:
0xe36f5735f5bc12c36b361a599e8603d56f7ccd91
Total investment: $1.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 new account invested $6.4k “Yes” on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula’s first‑round support is 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation, Renan Santos receives 36.1% among voters aged 16‑24, ahead of Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $6.4k on “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 14.2% and the current “Yes” probability at 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest nationwide poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula’s first‑round support is 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 34.3%, Renan Santos 6.9%, already higher than Romeu Zema’s 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado’s 2.7%; Brazil’s presidential election rules state that if no candidate exceeds 50%, the top two advance to a runoff.
In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg’s cross‑tabulation, Renan Santos receives 36.1% among voters aged 16‑24, ahead of Lula’s 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro’s 24.5%; on Polymarket, Renan’s win probability has risen from 5.5% on the 12th to about 14% today, making him the third‑place presidential candidate, behind second‑place Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This shows that after negative news about Flávio broke, he became the clearest beneficiary as a “new right” candidate.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total investment: $6.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 smart money investors put $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors placed $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
The Los Angeles mayoral election is nonpartisan, with the primary on June 2. According to the city’s election schedule, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June primary, the top two vote‑getters will advance to the municipal runoff on November 3.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking re‑election, facing 13 challengers. LAist’s voter guide notes that the mayor runs the municipal machine of the United States’ second‑largest city, with an annual city budget of about $14 billion; key issues this cycle include homelessness, post‑Palisades fire recovery, public safety, housing, LAPD staffing, and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
The Los Angeles Times reported on the 13th that an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows Karen Bass leading at 30%, Spencer Pratt at 22%, and councilmember Nithya Raman at 20%. When accounting for undecided voters, Bass rises to 35%, Raman to 23.3%, and Pratt to 22.9%.
Today, Trump told reporters he hopes Spencer Pratt performs well and said, “I heard he’s a very MAGA person.” However, USC/UC Berkeley political communication scholar Dan Schnur said Los Angeles is even bluer than California overall, and although Pratt has no party label on the ballot, “the more voters know Trump backs him, the harder it will be for him to break through the Republican conservative base.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0x1fee90f352fd362ea4bf13c6ed7cdd83a4d2ed5e
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
Total investment: $36.8k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 5 smart money investors placed $36.8k on “No” for “Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?”, with an average purchase probability of 73.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 24.5%.
0x1fee90f3 invested $12.5k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $73.9k. In that sector they have 28 settled trades with a win rate of 18/28 (64%), including 7 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
0xc6dd7225 invested $9.4k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $93.6k. In that sector they have 401 settled trades with a win rate of 271/401 (68%), including 60 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.4k.
0xa30e4513 invested $9.8k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $18.7k. In that sector they have 17 settled trades with a win rate of 14/17 (82%), and none of those trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
pup1 invested $3.0k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $95.3k. In that sector they have 1,279 settled trades with a win rate of 573/1,279 (45%), including 242 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $664.
foodenjoyer invested $2.1k, with the market’s best related sector beingPolitics, sector net profit $541k. In that sector they have 70 settled trades with a win rate of 31/70 (44%), including 6 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. In the nearby cost range ($0.651‑$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $5.0k.
The Los Angeles mayoral election is nonpartisan, with the primary on June 2. According to the city’s election schedule, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June primary, the top two vote‑getters will advance to the municipal runoff on November 3.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking re‑election, facing 13 challengers. LAist’s voter guide notes that the mayor runs the municipal machine of the United States’ second‑largest city, with an annual city budget of about $14 billion; key issues this cycle include homelessness, post‑Palisades fire recovery, public safety, housing, LAPD staffing, and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
The Los Angeles Times reported on the 13th that an Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows Karen Bass leading at 30%, Spencer Pratt at 22%, and councilmember Nithya Raman at 20%. When accounting for undecided voters, Bass rises to 35%, Raman to 23.3%, and Pratt to 22.9%.
Today, Trump told reporters he hopes Spencer Pratt performs well and said, “I heard he’s a very MAGA person.” However, USC/UC Berkeley political communication scholar Dan Schnur said Los Angeles is even bluer than California overall, and although Pratt has no party label on the ballot, “the more voters know Trump backs him, the harder it will be for him to break through the Republican conservative base.”
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; they may open a position and later take profit or cut loss at a specific time.
Accounts:
0x1fee90f352fd362ea4bf13c6ed7cdd83a4d2ed5e
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
0x7b02b2bac2a30ed5e40b7094e734f4c3dc2a4991
Total investment: $36.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 smart‑money investor placed $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, raising the “No” probability from 56.6% to 68.5%
On the prediction market Polymarket half an hour ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 64.7%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 56.6% to 68.5%.
The market’s settlement condition requires a government to expel the Israeli ambassador it has posted in that country, or to issue a clear, official, unambiguous statement that it will expel / is expelling that ambassador, for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
On May 13, a group of civil‑society teams announced they would cross the eastern Mediterranean to the Gaza coast, aiming to deliver aid and challenge Israel’s maritime blockade of Gaza. On May 19, Israel’s foreign ministry said that “all 430 activists” were taken to Israel to meet consular representatives of their respective countries and were subsequently detained in Israel.
The Canadian Press reported on May 20 that Canada’s foreign minister had requested to summon the Israeli ambassador to Canada; Italy, Spain, Belgium and other countries also summoned the Israeli ambassador or chargé d’affaires that day to protest Israel’s treatment of the activist flotilla. The Croatian president’s office said on May 18 that the nominee for Israeli ambassador to Croatia would not receive presidential approval because of current Israeli government policies; Al Jazeera reported the same day that the Israeli appointee might only be able to go to Croatia as a chargé d’affaires.
The most relevant recent event to this market’s rule definition occurred months earlier: South Africa’s SABC reported on January 30 that South Africa declared the Israeli deputy ambassador/chargé d’affaires Ariel Seidman “persona non grata” and gave him 72 hours to leave, but that incident happened before the market was created on March 31 and involved a “deputy ambassador” rather than the more specific “posted ambassador” defined in the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but is opening a position and later taking profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket half an hour ago, 1 smart‑money investor put $1.1k on “No” for “Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31 2026?”, with an average buy‑in probability of 64.7%, causing the “No” probability to rise from 56.6% to 68.5%.
0xb4f2592e invested $1.1k, and the market’s best‑related sector is Middle East, with a sector net profit of $39.3k. Across 141 settled trades in that sector, the win rate is 103/141 (73%); 41 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), the median historical investment amount is $958.
The market’s settlement condition requires a government to expel the Israeli ambassador it has posted in that country, or to issue a clear, official, unambiguous statement that it will expel / is expelling that ambassador, for the outcome to settle as “Yes”.
On May 13, a group of civil‑society teams announced they would cross the eastern Mediterranean to the Gaza coast, aiming to deliver aid and challenge Israel’s maritime blockade of Gaza. On May 19, Israel’s foreign ministry said that “all 430 activists” were taken to Israel to meet consular representatives of their respective countries and were subsequently detained in Israel.
The Canadian Press reported on May 20 that Canada’s foreign minister had requested to summon the Israeli ambassador to Canada; Italy, Spain, Belgium and other countries also summoned the Israeli ambassador or chargé d’affaires that day to protest Israel’s treatment of the activist flotilla. The Croatian president’s office said on May 18 that the nominee for Israeli ambassador to Croatia would not receive presidential approval because of current Israeli government policies; Al Jazeera reported the same day that the Israeli appointee might only be able to go to Croatia as a chargé d’affaires.
The most relevant recent event to this market’s rule definition occurred months earlier: South Africa’s SABC reported on January 30 that South Africa declared the Israeli deputy ambassador/chargé d’affaires Ariel Seidman “persona non grata” and gave him 72 hours to leave, but that incident happened before the market was created on March 31 and involved a “deputy ambassador” rather than the more specific “posted ambassador” defined in the rules.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but is opening a position and later taking profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Total investment: $1.1k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Event: “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?” currently shows a “Google” probability of 87%.
OpenAI officially announced on March 31 that it completed a $122 B financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $852 B; Anthropic officially announced on February 12 that it completed a $30 B Series G financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $380 B. Adding these two official financing valuations together, OpenAI + Anthropic is roughly $1.23 T. By comparison, Alphabet/Google’s current public‑market market cap is about $4.7 T, still close to four times the combined total.
Bloomberg reported on May 12 that Anthropic is in preliminary discussions with investors about a new financing of at least $30 B, which could push its valuation above $900 B. If this round is completed at a similar level, the combined valuation of OpenAI + Anthropic would approach $1.75 T, still about $3 T short of Google’s current $4.7 T market cap.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched market yesterday “OpenAI + Anthropic vs. Google – Which Has a Higher Valuation on December 31?” currently shows a “Google” probability of 87%.
OpenAI officially announced on March 31 that it completed a $122 B financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $852 B; Anthropic officially announced on February 12 that it completed a $30 B Series G financing round, giving it a post‑money valuation of $380 B. Adding these two official financing valuations together, OpenAI + Anthropic is roughly $1.23 T. By comparison, Alphabet/Google’s current public‑market market cap is about $4.7 T, still close to four times the combined total.
Bloomberg reported on May 12 that Anthropic is in preliminary discussions with investors about a new financing of at least $30 B, which could push its valuation above $900 B. If this round is completed at a similar level, the combined valuation of OpenAI + Anthropic would approach $1.75 T, still about $3 T short of Google’s current $4.7 T market cap.
---------------------------------
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4 smart money investors have put $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have placed $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 19.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 18.5%.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Rubi O said there are “some positive signs” that the United States and Iran are reaching an agreement and that the talks “have made some progress”; he also disclosed that the Pakistani envoy leading the mediation is expected to travel to Tehran to push Iran to review the Trump administration’s latest proposal.
Iran’s semi‑official media ISNA reported that Tehran is evaluating the U.S. latest text, which has “narrowed the differences to some extent”; Iran also stated that further progress toward an agreement requires Washington to abandon its inclination to resort to war again.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $134.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors have placed $134.7k on “Yes” for “Will the United States and Iran reach a permanent peace deal before May 31 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 19.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 18.5%.
denizz invested $81.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.2M. In that sector they have 855 settled trades with a win rate of 574/855 (67%), including 183 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101‑$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $1.8k, and this investment is 45.2 times that median.
0xdf17f4a8 invested $17.1k, with the market’s best related sector being Geopolitics, sector net profit $166k. In that sector they have 345 settled trades with a win rate of 229/345 (66%), including 31 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.201‑$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $192, and this investment is 89.1 times that median.
Parz1vaI invested $15.7k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $278k. In that sector they have 2,802 settled trades with a win rate of 2,048/2,802 (73%), including 635 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $117, and this investment is 134.2 times that median.
Dropper invested $20.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $1.0M. In that sector they have 1,163 settled trades with a win rate of 763/1,163 (66%), including 258 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151‑$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $203, and this investment is 100.7 times that median.
Today, U.S. Secretary of State Rubi O said there are “some positive signs” that the United States and Iran are reaching an agreement and that the talks “have made some progress”; he also disclosed that the Pakistani envoy leading the mediation is expected to travel to Tehran to push Iran to review the Trump administration’s latest proposal.
Iran’s semi‑official media ISNA reported that Tehran is evaluating the U.S. latest text, which has “narrowed the differences to some extent”; Iran also stated that further progress toward an agreement requires Washington to abandon its inclination to resort to war again.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but may close the position at a certain point for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461
0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292
Total investment: $134.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
1 account invested $13.4k “Yes” on “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account placed $13.4k on “Yes” for “Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?”, with an average purchase probability of 34.8% and the current “Yes” probability at 34.5%.
The Fed’s H.15 rate data released on May 21 showed the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 4.67% on May 19, with the 30‑year at 5.18%; on May 20 they were 4.57% and 5.11% respectively. Reuters reported on May 21 that Treasury yields surged this week, partly because higher‑than‑expected April inflation prompted investors to shift from “rate cuts this year” to reconsidering “rate hikes this year”; hedge selling by mortgage‑backed securities investors amplified this round of Treasury selling.
The FOMC meeting minutes for April 28‑29 were released on May 20. The minutes said most participants believed that if inflation continued to stay above 2%, further policy tightening could become appropriate; the materials also noted that Middle‑East tensions lifted energy prices, inflation remained above target, and economic activity continued expanding at a solid pace. The minutes also showed that the market‑implied path still expected rates to be roughly unchanged this year, with the median path in the New York Fed survey still pointing to two 25‑basis‑point cuts over the next year, only with the timing pushed back.
Account:
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Total investment: $13.4k
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「Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?」the “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%
On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, in the past 20 minutes, the “Will Trump announce a reduction or removal of tariffs on China before the market closes on May 22, 2026?” “Yes” probability rose from 4% to 30.1%.
The market was created by 0x9a3f, whose total loss related to the proposal is $3.9k.
Reuters reported on May 20 that China’s Ministry of Commerce said the United States and China had, in principle, agreed to include relevant agricultural products in a “mutual tariff reduction framework,” and noted that the U.S.–China Trade Committee would select and oversee about $30 billion worth of goods, with tariffs on those products dropping to historic lows or lower. The report also clarified that specific products and implementation details have not yet been released.
According to the rules, this market requires Trump or the Trump administration to explicitly announce a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs on China before 23:59 Eastern Time on May 22. The White House’s fact sheet on the U.S.–China summit released on May 17 mentioned the trade committee, agricultural procurement, rare earths, Boeing, beef and poultry imports, but did not directly announce a U.S. reduction or removal of tariffs on China.
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1 new account invested $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account placed $14.0k on “Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin before July?” “Yes”, with an average purchase probability of 49.7% and the current “Yes” probability at 53.5%.
On the 20th, Saylor said in an investor Q&A: “I think it’s not unlikely that some Bitcoin will be sold between now and the end of the year; I don’t know how much will be sold.”
In the public Q&A material submitted to the SEC on the 21st, Strategy disclosed that Saylor and CEO Phong Le discussed the stability of preferred shares STRC, dividend arrangements, and capital structure. Actions listed by Saylor include raising dividends, buying Bitcoin after financing, building a USD reserve, repurchasing about $1.5 billion of debt, and adjusting dividend frequency.
Account:
0xd16132ccb88849df1d150b4c62913468acdb85aa
Total investment: $14.0k
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4 smart money investors put $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 4 smart money investors placed $18.2k on “Yes” for “Will the US‑Iran diplomatic talks be held before June 30 2026?”, with an average entry probability of 62.3% and the current “Yes” probability at 65.5%.
0xdf6f85ff invested $2.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $12.3k. In that sector they have 51 settled trades with a win rate of 46/51 (90%), including 7 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.
0x15f7ddbc invested $13.2k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $7.1k. In that sector they have 227 settled trades with a win rate of 150/227 (66%), including 22 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $427, and this investment is 30.9 times that median.
0x8a98109f invested $1.3k, with the market’s best related sector being Politics, sector net profit $8.2k. In that sector they have 432 settled trades with a win rate of 221/432 (51%), including 26 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551‑$0.7), their historical median investment amount is $1.5k.
0xfbd48c98 invested $1.4k, with the market’s best related sector being Trump, sector net profit $8.0k. In that sector they have 101 settled trades with a win rate of 65/101 (64%), including 37 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601‑$0.75), their historical median investment amount is $806.
On the 21st, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement, but the gaps have narrowed, with remaining disputes focused on Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and Tehran’s control arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Jazeera reported live today that mediated talks between Tehran and Washington are still ongoing, with both sides exchanging information and draft agreements aimed at establishing a formal framework to end the conflict; its correspondent in Tehran also said Pakistani officials are conducting “intensive mediation activities.” One senior Iranian official believes an agreement is close, while another Iranian source warned that it is still too early to judge whether a final deal will be reached.
Note: Based on the trader’s past transaction profile, this participant is not simply betting on whether the event occurs; they may close positions at a specific time for profit or loss.
Accounts:
0xdf6f85ff51133209764fe15147d41f8cb808f6ee
0x15f7ddbc6ffe08722ddeb64d51e58aef7b8ca018
0x8a98109fb0f1d87d9bfcb4486ba3587b95c51b92
0xfbd48c98f9e698fea5dd3b3f4f09547bcef1194b
Total investment: $18.2k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN