Rick Rieder Odds Surge; Prominent VC Increases Position to $81.5k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Fed Chair has risen 10% to 25% over the past day, while the frontrunner Kevin Warsh has dropped 12% to 48%. The new account suspected to be Hypersphere Capital—previously reported by this channel—has continued to add to its wager, bringing its total position to $81.5k with an average cost of 17¢.
In the past 24 hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump could announce his choice as early as next week, with four candidates, including Rieder, still under consideration. Multiple reports emphasize that a decision is imminent, with some market analysts suggesting Rieder may face an easier path to Senate confirmation.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $81.5k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Fed Chair has risen 10% to 25% over the past day, while the frontrunner Kevin Warsh has dropped 12% to 48%. The new account suspected to be Hypersphere Capital—previously reported by this channel—has continued to add to its wager, bringing its total position to $81.5k with an average cost of 17¢.
In the past 24 hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump could announce his choice as early as next week, with four candidates, including Rieder, still under consideration. Multiple reports emphasize that a decision is imminent, with some market analysts suggesting Rieder may face an easier path to Senate confirmation.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $81.5k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
"TheBigBlind" Doubles Down on Khamenei Ouster with $13k Bet Despite $145k Loss
On the prediction market Polymarket, the user "TheBigBlind"—despite having already lost $145.7k betting on Iranian regime change—has persisted over the past day by wagering an additional $13k that Khamenei will be ousted. The user deployed $3k at 6¢ for an exit before January 31 and $10k at 20¢ for an exit before March 31. The current probabilities for these markets stand at 6% and 17%, respectively, bringing TheBigBlind's total open interest in these positions to $36.9k.
Mass protests sparked by economic distress, inflation, and currency devaluation have continued across Iran for weeks. With the internet almost completely shut down by the government, the UN Human Rights Council has announced an emergency meeting to address the "shocking situation of violence," with official estimates suggesting thousands of deaths. Reports also indicate that a soldier was sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters, highlighting deep internal divisions and the regime's hardline enforcement.
Account: 0x34d27af7413310a83ee83566ecd5a193e63c75a8
Position: $36.9k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the user "TheBigBlind"—despite having already lost $145.7k betting on Iranian regime change—has persisted over the past day by wagering an additional $13k that Khamenei will be ousted. The user deployed $3k at 6¢ for an exit before January 31 and $10k at 20¢ for an exit before March 31. The current probabilities for these markets stand at 6% and 17%, respectively, bringing TheBigBlind's total open interest in these positions to $36.9k.
Mass protests sparked by economic distress, inflation, and currency devaluation have continued across Iran for weeks. With the internet almost completely shut down by the government, the UN Human Rights Council has announced an emergency meeting to address the "shocking situation of violence," with official estimates suggesting thousands of deaths. Reports also indicate that a soldier was sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters, highlighting deep internal divisions and the regime's hardline enforcement.
Account: 0x34d27af7413310a83ee83566ecd5a193e63c75a8
Position: $36.9k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
"10u Warrior" Suddenly Drops $45k Betting on California Billionaire Tax Passing in 2026
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month—previously averaging position sizes of just $10—has suddenly wagered $45,000 that the California Billionaire Tax will pass in the 2026 election. The probability of passage currently stands at 51%.
The proposal, titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," aims to levy a one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Notably, the resolution criteria for a "Yes" outcome are extremely strict given the legal timeline. The market requires the following conditions to be met:
Collect 875,000 voter signatures and qualify for the ballot by June 25.
Secure enough votes to enact the legislation by November 3.
Both steps must be completed for the market to resolve as "Yes."
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $44k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month—previously averaging position sizes of just $10—has suddenly wagered $45,000 that the California Billionaire Tax will pass in the 2026 election. The probability of passage currently stands at 51%.
The proposal, titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," aims to levy a one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Notably, the resolution criteria for a "Yes" outcome are extremely strict given the legal timeline. The market requires the following conditions to be met:
Collect 875,000 voter signatures and qualify for the ballot by June 25.
Secure enough votes to enact the legislation by November 3.
Both steps must be completed for the market to resolve as "Yes."
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $44k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
US Stocks Plunge; Probability of S&P 500 Dropping 2%+ in Q1 Surges 50% to 99.7%
On the prediction market Polymarket, under the new event "S&P 500 Q1 Daily % Change," the probability for a "Drop < -2%" surged 50% to 99.8%, signaling imminent resolution, while the "Drop < -1%" market rose 23% to 100%.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,796 on January 20, dropping approximately 2.06%. A major driver of Tuesday's slump was the U.S. President's announcement of planned new tariffs on multiple EU countries, which ignited global concerns over escalating trade tensions and led to a sell-off in risk assets. Tech stocks were particularly hard hit, dragging down the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw gains.
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, under the new event "S&P 500 Q1 Daily % Change," the probability for a "Drop < -2%" surged 50% to 99.8%, signaling imminent resolution, while the "Drop < -1%" market rose 23% to 100%.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,796 on January 20, dropping approximately 2.06%. A major driver of Tuesday's slump was the U.S. President's announcement of planned new tariffs on multiple EU countries, which ignited global concerns over escalating trade tensions and led to a sell-off in risk assets. Tech stocks were particularly hard hit, dragging down the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw gains.
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Top Free Solo Climber to Challenge Taipei 101 This Week; Market Bets on Climb Duration
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are debating how long it will take famous climber Alex Honnold to summit Taipei 101. The probability that the climb will take between "1 hour to 1 hour 45 minutes" currently stands at 72%.
Alex Honnold is a world-renowned free soloist, celebrated for climbing steep rock faces without ropes or protective gear. His most famous achievement includes his 2017 ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park, which took nearly four hours.
In late 2025, Honnold expressed interest in urban climbing and announced he will "free solo" Taipei 101 on January 24 at approximately 9:00 AM. Standing 509 meters tall, Taipei 101 is the city's landmark skyscraper and held the title of the world's tallest building from 2004 to 2010.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are debating how long it will take famous climber Alex Honnold to summit Taipei 101. The probability that the climb will take between "1 hour to 1 hour 45 minutes" currently stands at 72%.
Alex Honnold is a world-renowned free soloist, celebrated for climbing steep rock faces without ropes or protective gear. His most famous achievement includes his 2017 ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park, which took nearly four hours.
In late 2025, Honnold expressed interest in urban climbing and announced he will "free solo" Taipei 101 on January 24 at approximately 9:00 AM. Standing 509 meters tall, Taipei 101 is the city's landmark skyscraper and held the title of the world's tallest building from 2004 to 2010.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Account Up 5x on Fed Chair Bet; Doubles Down on US Govt Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account reported a week ago—which wagered on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair at an average price of 4¢—is now sitting on unrealized gains exceeding 5x. Since last week, this account has been heavily accumulating positions betting that the US government will shut down again this month. The current probability of a shutdown stands at 12%.
On January 20, the US Congress released a massive funding bill aimed at financing defense, labor, health services, and homeland security to avoid a lapse in critical functions similar to last year.
However, following several recent violent incidents involving immigration enforcement officers within the US, multiple Democrats have expressed concern over the bill's lack of oversight clauses. Rep. Ted Lieu has publicly stated that he will not vote for the current bill unless specific reforms are included.
Account: 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531
Position: $7.7k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account reported a week ago—which wagered on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair at an average price of 4¢—is now sitting on unrealized gains exceeding 5x. Since last week, this account has been heavily accumulating positions betting that the US government will shut down again this month. The current probability of a shutdown stands at 12%.
On January 20, the US Congress released a massive funding bill aimed at financing defense, labor, health services, and homeland security to avoid a lapse in critical functions similar to last year.
However, following several recent violent incidents involving immigration enforcement officers within the US, multiple Democrats have expressed concern over the bill's lack of oversight clauses. Rep. Ted Lieu has publicly stated that he will not vote for the current bill unless specific reforms are included.
Account: 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531
Position: $7.7k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
ICO Rule Change & Team Dump Spark Outrage; Community Calls for Trove Founder's Arrest
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
---------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Justin Sun Claims He's "Willing to Spend $30M to Meet Musk"; Odds of 2026 Meeting at 59%
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Justin Sun to meet Elon Musk in 2026?" was launched today, with the current probability sitting at 59%.
On January 15, X user ambuikem posted a photo of Elon Musk in a conference room—seemingly sitting right next to him—with the caption: "24 hours with Elon Musk or $30 million?"
On January 18, Justin Sun quote-tweeted the post, replying: "I am willing to pay Elon Musk $30 million to buy one hour of his time to speak with him." It was this declaration that spurred the creation of the market.
Sun is infamous for similar high-profile stunts, most notably in 2019 when he paid a record-breaking $4.57 million for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. He used the event to aggressively market TRON, claiming he would bring blockchain leaders to "evangelize" cryptocurrency to the Oracle of Omaha. While Buffett remained uninterested in crypto, Sun successfully leveraged the overwhelming media coverage for significant brand exposure.
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Justin Sun to meet Elon Musk in 2026?" was launched today, with the current probability sitting at 59%.
On January 15, X user ambuikem posted a photo of Elon Musk in a conference room—seemingly sitting right next to him—with the caption: "24 hours with Elon Musk or $30 million?"
On January 18, Justin Sun quote-tweeted the post, replying: "I am willing to pay Elon Musk $30 million to buy one hour of his time to speak with him." It was this declaration that spurred the creation of the market.
Sun is infamous for similar high-profile stunts, most notably in 2019 when he paid a record-breaking $4.57 million for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. He used the event to aggressively market TRON, claiming he would bring blockchain leaders to "evangelize" cryptocurrency to the Oracle of Omaha. While Buffett remained uninterested in crypto, Sun successfully leveraged the overwhelming media coverage for significant brand exposure.
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
MrBeast's "Beast Games" S2: 4 Suspicious Accounts Bet $25k on Contestant 167
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four suspicious accounts have wagered $25,000 on contestant #167 to win Season 2 of Beast Games. The contestant currently holds a winning probability of 73%.
The position sizes for these accounts in this specific market are more than 10 times their average across other markets, with the majority of their holdings highly concentrated on this outcome.
Beast Games, the reality competition hosted by top creator MrBeast, premiered its second season on January 7. As the field narrows after several rounds, Contestant #167 (Tyler) has excelled in physical challenges—such as rope climbing and obstacle courses—as well as strategic gameplay.
Accounts: 0x1d718065c53a616051136b0ada70d7d94c436c23 0xd4bb827c0227774bcde1bd881b36c7d93854a993 0x9a3ac5aaedb9294d50133959f2f60f45e47699fe 0x7879fc0d6a6f21d892c8b80d51dde576608b822a
Position: $24.9k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Israel Airstrikes Continue; High-Win-Rate Account Bets Against Strike Today
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have wagered $7k that Israel will not strike Lebanon today (January 22). One is a new account, while the other holds a history of 28 trades—27 of which were specifically bets on Israeli strikes on Lebanon—boasting an 80% win rate and $15,000 in profit. The current market probability for a strike stands at 21%.
On January 21, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes on multiple villages and towns in southern Lebanon, resulting in at least two deaths and 19 injuries (including eight journalists), as well as the destruction of four border crossings.
However, as of the morning of January 22, no new attacks have been reported, and the Israeli military has not announced further operations.
Accounts: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21 0xac3dce4f903ba58fd2ee4a27364ae0f6140b5536
Position: $7k
-----------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have wagered $7k that Israel will not strike Lebanon today (January 22). One is a new account, while the other holds a history of 28 trades—27 of which were specifically bets on Israeli strikes on Lebanon—boasting an 80% win rate and $15,000 in profit. The current market probability for a strike stands at 21%.
On January 21, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes on multiple villages and towns in southern Lebanon, resulting in at least two deaths and 19 injuries (including eight journalists), as well as the destruction of four border crossings.
However, as of the morning of January 22, no new attacks have been reported, and the Israeli military has not announced further operations.
Accounts: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21 0xac3dce4f903ba58fd2ee4a27364ae0f6140b5536
Position: $7k
-----------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump Election Whale Adds $14k to US Strike on Iran Bet
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address—previously reported for profiting $320k on the US election—has added $14k over the past day to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a $67k position on "US strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 26¢, current price 21¢) and a $20k position on "US or Israel strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 31¢, current price 22¢).
Media sources suggest Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Greenland may be a smokescreen. Over the last 24 hours, US military deployments focused on Iran have visibly accelerated, challenging the assumption that Trump is merely posturing. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has gone into electromagnetic silence (AIS off) and is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea after January 24. Multiple KC-135 Stratotankers have deployed to Spain, replicating routes used for past long-range strikes. Simultaneously, a large fleet of F-15Es and C-17s has moved to Jordan to strengthen defenses against drones and missiles. Collectively, conditions for both offensive and defensive operations appear to be falling into place.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $87k
---------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address—previously reported for profiting $320k on the US election—has added $14k over the past day to the wager that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The address now holds a $67k position on "US strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 26¢, current price 21¢) and a $20k position on "US or Israel strikes Iran by Jan 31" (avg cost 31¢, current price 22¢).
Media sources suggest Trump's aggressive rhetoric on Greenland may be a smokescreen. Over the last 24 hours, US military deployments focused on Iran have visibly accelerated, challenging the assumption that Trump is merely posturing. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has gone into electromagnetic silence (AIS off) and is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea after January 24. Multiple KC-135 Stratotankers have deployed to Spain, replicating routes used for past long-range strikes. Simultaneously, a large fleet of F-15Es and C-17s has moved to Jordan to strengthen defenses against drones and missiles. Collectively, conditions for both offensive and defensive operations appear to be falling into place.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $87k
---------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
5 Suspicious Accounts Bet $23k on Long-Shot Candidate for Paris Mayor
On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts have wagered on the long-shot candidate Sarah Knafo to be elected Mayor of Paris. Her current probability of winning stands at just 4%.
The first round of the mayoral election is scheduled for March 15. The current frontrunners are Emmanuel Grégoire (55%) and Rachida Dati (39%). Knafo, whose platform focuses on anti-immigration policies, reserving social housing for local professionals, and fiscal austerity, is polling at approximately 7–10% in the first round.
Community analysis suggests these accounts may not necessarily expect Knafo to win the final election. Instead, they might be anticipating a rise in her support due to upcoming campaign pushes, strategic alliances, or controversial events. If her odds increase significantly before the election, these traders could exit their positions to take profit without waiting for the March 15 results.
Accounts: 0x7667949a358adc6b6000fdd9f106f200e39e6cfd 0x6bed2e1b515d22317ba71387adda65d30a55f104 0x4504feae60226541c990d76f2a828445df5f6f71 0x5ef3b45fd73c7bbd724ca870d080d1cef4eaadef 0x48abc486c27db8f4d920767d0339f9262078a612
Position: $23.5k
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts have wagered on the long-shot candidate Sarah Knafo to be elected Mayor of Paris. Her current probability of winning stands at just 4%.
The first round of the mayoral election is scheduled for March 15. The current frontrunners are Emmanuel Grégoire (55%) and Rachida Dati (39%). Knafo, whose platform focuses on anti-immigration policies, reserving social housing for local professionals, and fiscal austerity, is polling at approximately 7–10% in the first round.
Community analysis suggests these accounts may not necessarily expect Knafo to win the final election. Instead, they might be anticipating a rise in her support due to upcoming campaign pushes, strategic alliances, or controversial events. If her odds increase significantly before the election, these traders could exit their positions to take profit without waiting for the March 15 results.
Accounts: 0x7667949a358adc6b6000fdd9f106f200e39e6cfd 0x6bed2e1b515d22317ba71387adda65d30a55f104 0x4504feae60226541c990d76f2a828445df5f6f71 0x5ef3b45fd73c7bbd724ca870d080d1cef4eaadef 0x48abc486c27db8f4d920767d0339f9262078a612
Position: $23.5k
----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $8.5k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair; Previously Reported VC Continues Accumulation
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $8.5k that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Simultaneously, the prominent VC address previously reported by this channel added another $13.3k to its position on Rieder. His implied probability currently stands at 27.3%, continuing the upward trend from yesterday.
Recently, Trump emphasized that the "new Fed Chair selection will be decided soon." Rieder's odds improved after Trump's transition team highlighted his fixed-income management experience at BlackRock and described him as a "market-friendly outsider." Meanwhile, support for Christopher Waller has receded, potentially because the Trump camp leans toward appointing a non-incumbent official.
Accounts: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $105.1k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Zelenskyy WEF Attendance Odds Surge 80% to 90% Intraday
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched "Zelenskyy to attend World Economic Forum?" market dipped to a low of 5–10% at opening yesterday before rallying rapidly. The probability now hovers around 90%, though the order book shows a wide spread of approximately 10%. Total trading volume in the market is currently around $206k.
There is currently no confirmation that Zelenskyy will attend the 2026 Davos Forum in Switzerland, which concludes on January 23. However, he has dispatched a delegation of senior officials to the United States for discussions on security guarantees and post-war recovery; these negotiations are reportedly linked to consultations expected to continue during the Davos forum.
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the newly launched "Zelenskyy to attend World Economic Forum?" market dipped to a low of 5–10% at opening yesterday before rallying rapidly. The probability now hovers around 90%, though the order book shows a wide spread of approximately 10%. Total trading volume in the market is currently around $206k.
There is currently no confirmation that Zelenskyy will attend the 2026 Davos Forum in Switzerland, which concludes on January 23. However, he has dispatched a delegation of senior officials to the United States for discussions on security guarantees and post-war recovery; these negotiations are reportedly linked to consultations expected to continue during the Davos forum.
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump Claims Greenland Framework Agreement at WEF; New Account Bets Nearly $40k on Acquisition
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $38,000 ten minutes ago that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The current probability for this market stands at 12%.
At the World Economic Forum on January 21, following a meeting with the NATO Secretary General, Trump announced a "framework for a future agreement on Greenland and the entire Arctic region," explicitly stating, "I don't want to use force, I won't use force."
During the forum, Trump emphasized that the focus of the Greenland issue is "Arctic security cooperation." He noted that the US would gain "increased military presence and mineral access" and mentioned the "Golden Dome" missile defense system as part of the collaboration.
Account: 0x6228177709d46db811388a7a1bc165af767bb2f7
Total Position: $38k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $38,000 ten minutes ago that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The current probability for this market stands at 12%.
At the World Economic Forum on January 21, following a meeting with the NATO Secretary General, Trump announced a "framework for a future agreement on Greenland and the entire Arctic region," explicitly stating, "I don't want to use force, I won't use force."
During the forum, Trump emphasized that the focus of the Greenland issue is "Arctic security cooperation." He noted that the US would gain "increased military presence and mineral access" and mentioned the "Golden Dome" missile defense system as part of the collaboration.
Account: 0x6228177709d46db811388a7a1bc165af767bb2f7
Total Position: $38k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Election Whale Adds $13k; Two New Addresses Bet $53k on US Strike on Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address that previously profited $320k on the US election has continued to build its position over the past day, adding $12.9k to the wager that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. Additionally, one new address wagered $46.4k on a US strike occurring between late February and late June, while another new address bet $7.8k on a strike before Jan 31. The probability of a strike by Jan 31 has fluctuated between 20% and 25% over the past three days.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that the current US global strategic deployment bears a strong resemblance to the "Midnight Hammer" strategy observed in June 2025, indicating that the US military is continuing to position assets for both offensive and defensive operations.
Accounts: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e 0x92072cd4f7e99c2b57184bd6a413a29cc8a04360 0x9b6a9088a71298edbff2119ca4482a20ba9849aa
Total Position: $153.9k
--------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the returning address that previously profited $320k on the US election has continued to build its position over the past day, adding $12.9k to the wager that the US will strike Iran before Jan 31. Additionally, one new address wagered $46.4k on a US strike occurring between late February and late June, while another new address bet $7.8k on a strike before Jan 31. The probability of a strike by Jan 31 has fluctuated between 20% and 25% over the past three days.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that the current US global strategic deployment bears a strong resemblance to the "Midnight Hammer" strategy observed in June 2025, indicating that the US military is continuing to position assets for both offensive and defensive operations.
Accounts: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e 0x92072cd4f7e99c2b57184bd6a413a29cc8a04360 0x9b6a9088a71298edbff2119ca4482a20ba9849aa
Total Position: $153.9k
--------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $13.8k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair; Suspicious Accounts Reported Over Past 9 Days Hold $150k+
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $13.8k over the past day that Rick Rieder will be the next Fed Chair (cost 30¢, current price 32¢). Over the last nine days, PolyBeats has reported multiple suspicious addresses betting on Rieder with entry prices ranging from 3¢ to 30¢; the total accumulated wager from these profitable addresses currently exceeds $150k.
In the past 24 hours, Reuters reported from Davos that Trump indicated the choice for the next Fed Chair may have narrowed to "just one." He specifically named Rick Rieder among the candidates, describing Rieder's interview as "very impressive." Reuters later reiterated—citing CNBC—that Trump is close to a decision and spoke highly of both Rieder and Kevin Hassett; Hassett also publicly praised Rieder as the "best bond guy." While no official nomination has been submitted, these comments are viewed by the market as a signal of Rieder's rising probability.
Accounts: 0xcaa64916768e40e9d17bcb82dd72495e34ed36a2 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $150k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address wagered $13.8k over the past day that Rick Rieder will be the next Fed Chair (cost 30¢, current price 32¢). Over the last nine days, PolyBeats has reported multiple suspicious addresses betting on Rieder with entry prices ranging from 3¢ to 30¢; the total accumulated wager from these profitable addresses currently exceeds $150k.
In the past 24 hours, Reuters reported from Davos that Trump indicated the choice for the next Fed Chair may have narrowed to "just one." He specifically named Rick Rieder among the candidates, describing Rieder's interview as "very impressive." Reuters later reiterated—citing CNBC—that Trump is close to a decision and spoke highly of both Rieder and Kevin Hassett; Hassett also publicly praised Rieder as the "best bond guy." While no official nomination has been submitted, these comments are viewed by the market as a signal of Rieder's rising probability.
Accounts: 0xcaa64916768e40e9d17bcb82dd72495e34ed36a2 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d 0x817abf38d75aa526db01da7f94bc4bf8023d7f1c
Total Position: $150k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Whale Bets $200k on Brazil Election; Wallet Holds Over $3M
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account wagered $200,000 on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The position was acquired at an average price of 54¢, and the current market probability stands at 53%. Fund tracing suggests the account likely belongs to X user UnknwnFnd, whose on-chain wallet assets exceed $3 million.
The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Lula, currently serving his third term (2023–2026) after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is eligible to run for a fourth term following a 2025 Superior Electoral Court ruling that clarified his previous non-consecutive terms do not violate term limits. He currently leads the polls with approximately 45–50% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of the former president—trails in second place with 22%.
Account: 0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total Position: $201k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account wagered $200,000 on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The position was acquired at an average price of 54¢, and the current market probability stands at 53%. Fund tracing suggests the account likely belongs to X user UnknwnFnd, whose on-chain wallet assets exceed $3 million.
The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. Lula, currently serving his third term (2023–2026) after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, is eligible to run for a fourth term following a 2025 Superior Electoral Court ruling that clarified his previous non-consecutive terms do not violate term limits. He currently leads the polls with approximately 45–50% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro—the eldest son of the former president—trails in second place with 22%.
Account: 0xbc75cabb772f1da1c1772430620da0174c453f69
Total Position: $201k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Three New Addresses Bet $23.6k on US Strike on Iran Within Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new accounts have wagered a total of $23.6k over the past day that the US or Israel will strike Iran between Jan 26 and Jan 31. Of this, $10k is bet specifically on a US strike occurring before Jan 26. The current probability of a US strike before Jan 26 stands at 11%, while the probability for a strike before Jan 31 is 26%.
US-Iran tensions have continued to escalate over the last 24 hours. A senior Iranian official publicly warned that any military attack by the US would be considered "total war" and met with a forceful response. Meanwhile, the US President announced that a fleet composed of "aircraft carriers and destroyers" is steaming toward the Middle East to monitor the situation. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on nine oil tankers and associated parties involved in the Iranian oil trade, freezing assets and prohibiting transactions.
Accounts: 0xc37c6c989bc5d86b3eb6095020899fedd585cd7e 0x10b228189907b678fecf998f87237a6d69ddcc72 0x7f5d096244365ebf7dd351a5fc002e7a7fcf78fb
Total Position: $23.6k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $5.8k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Year-End
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $5.8k within the last five hours that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of 2026. The position was entered at a cost of 43¢, and the current probability stands at 44%, having fluctuated between 41% and 44% over the last three days.
In the past two days, Zelenskyy stated that the text of a US-backed security guarantee agreement is "fully ready" for review as part of a potential ceasefire or peace framework, though he noted the agreement itself is not a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia, the US, and Ukraine held their first direct trilateral talks since 2022 in Abu Dhabi. Although no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, the parties described the meeting as "constructive" and agreed to keep channels of dialogue open.
Account: 0x2f03c2a4ea6cdb5e0eac5c29a58981339c70ec6a
Position: $5.8k
--------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $19k on Israel Striking Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $19k over the past day that Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The position was entered at a cost of 25¢, with the current price sitting at 16¢. The market probability has fluctuated between 14% and 25% over the last three days.
On January 23, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in a television interview that there are indications Israel is still seeking an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran, warning that such actions could further destabilize the Middle East. Fidan emphasized the hope for alternative paths to avoid conflict but noted that Israel appears actively looking for military opportunities.
Account: 0xb2d7cebe60e8e667b177993e382ff3b95b81312c
Position: $19k
-------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN