Two New Addresses Bet $7.5k on Rick Rieder for Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $7.5k over the past day—at an average price of 9 to 19 cents—that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Since this channel's initial report, his implied probability has doubled to 20%, making him the second leading candidate on Polymarket. The venture capital account previously reported by this channel has also turned a $10.5k paper loss into a $13k profit.
Multiple media outlets report that Rieder has met with Trump; the meeting reportedly went well, and Rieder is now considered a key candidate on the shortlist for the next Fed Chair.
Accounts: 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d
Total Position: $7.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $7.5k over the past day—at an average price of 9 to 19 cents—that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Since this channel's initial report, his implied probability has doubled to 20%, making him the second leading candidate on Polymarket. The venture capital account previously reported by this channel has also turned a $10.5k paper loss into a $13k profit.
Multiple media outlets report that Rieder has met with Trump; the meeting reportedly went well, and Rieder is now considered a key candidate on the shortlist for the next Fed Chair.
Accounts: 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d
Total Position: $7.5k
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Saylor Hints at BTC Buy; 6 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet Against It
On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement stands at 26%.
These six accounts share a collective track record of 33 trades related to MicroStrategy purchases, boasting a 94% win rate and over $65,000 in profits.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted "₿igger Orange." 14 hours ago—a signal typically preceding a purchase announcement.
However, January 19 is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a U.S. market holiday. Historically, MicroStrategy has announced a purchase on a holiday only once (May 26, 2025), which was done via an official press conference. Given the lack of an official statement on the 19th so far, the market anticipates that despite the founder's hint, the formal announcement will likely be postponed to the 20th due to the market closure.
Accounts: 0x9d4b905c57f466005ef13ac04693c4653030b8e6 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x1dd63f9a20170043cd28c9242d200c74e36dc0c2 0x899a258f5a379be61c567fc567c1fb4e5c6d63ff 0x343fdd2bf9272bd12cffbfe510f3969f57e36df2
Position: $44k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement stands at 26%.
These six accounts share a collective track record of 33 trades related to MicroStrategy purchases, boasting a 94% win rate and over $65,000 in profits.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted "₿igger Orange." 14 hours ago—a signal typically preceding a purchase announcement.
However, January 19 is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a U.S. market holiday. Historically, MicroStrategy has announced a purchase on a holiday only once (May 26, 2025), which was done via an official press conference. Given the lack of an official statement on the 19th so far, the market anticipates that despite the founder's hint, the formal announcement will likely be postponed to the 20th due to the market closure.
Accounts: 0x9d4b905c57f466005ef13ac04693c4653030b8e6 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x1dd63f9a20170043cd28c9242d200c74e36dc0c2 0x899a258f5a379be61c567fc567c1fb4e5c6d63ff 0x343fdd2bf9272bd12cffbfe510f3969f57e36df2
Position: $44k
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Two New Addresses Bet $15k on André Ventura to Win Portugal Presidential Election at 5% Odds
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $15k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5¢—that André Ventura will win the Portuguese presidential election. Currently, frontrunner António José Seguro leads the market with a commanding 94% probability, while André Ventura sits in second place, hovering between 4% and 5% for the past week.
The Portuguese election has entered a runoff phase: results from the first round on January 18 show independent/center-left candidate António José Seguro leading with nearly 31%, followed by far-right Chega leader André Ventura with approximately 24%. The second round of voting is confirmed for February 8. While this marks a strong entry for the far-right into the final stage, analysts point out that Ventura's "high rejection rate" could limit his ability to expand his voter base, leading the market to heavily favor Seguro.
Accounts: 0x7fccad417e52c4e7b050f078ffd22553464ee083 0xd6aedd533ab9a7081b60dd45e6cc79dfda85254a
Total Position: $15k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $15k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5¢—that André Ventura will win the Portuguese presidential election. Currently, frontrunner António José Seguro leads the market with a commanding 94% probability, while André Ventura sits in second place, hovering between 4% and 5% for the past week.
The Portuguese election has entered a runoff phase: results from the first round on January 18 show independent/center-left candidate António José Seguro leading with nearly 31%, followed by far-right Chega leader André Ventura with approximately 24%. The second round of voting is confirmed for February 8. While this marks a strong entry for the far-right into the final stage, analysts point out that Ventura's "high rejection rate" could limit his ability to expand his voter base, leading the market to heavily favor Seguro.
Accounts: 0x7fccad417e52c4e7b050f078ffd22553464ee083 0xd6aedd533ab9a7081b60dd45e6cc79dfda85254a
Total Position: $15k
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Trump Reaffirms Greenland's Strategic Role; Whale Bets $160k on US Acquisition This Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month has placed a significant bet that Trump will acquire Greenland in 2026. This account is now the top holder of "Yes" shares, with the market probability currently standing at 21%.
On January 16, Trump stated that the U.S. needs Greenland for national security "whether they like it or not." Following a high-level meeting between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland on the 18th, Trump reiterated his determination to acquire the island, stating he would not rule out the use of force. Reports indicate that the EU is preparing €93 billion in tariffs to counter Trump's tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies in defense of Greenland's sovereignty.
Account: 0x13697826456e87f46b798901a7766cc6589d02c0
Position: $160k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month has placed a significant bet that Trump will acquire Greenland in 2026. This account is now the top holder of "Yes" shares, with the market probability currently standing at 21%.
On January 16, Trump stated that the U.S. needs Greenland for national security "whether they like it or not." Following a high-level meeting between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland on the 18th, Trump reiterated his determination to acquire the island, stating he would not rule out the use of force. Reports indicate that the EU is preparing €93 billion in tariffs to counter Trump's tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies in defense of Greenland's sovereignty.
Account: 0x13697826456e87f46b798901a7766cc6589d02c0
Position: $160k
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❤1
Kevin Warsh Emerges as Fed Chair Favorite; Whale Places $200k Limit Order
On the prediction market Polymarket, two hours ago, a whale address holding over $5 million in on-chain assets created a new account and deposited $210,000. Subsequently, the address placed a limit buy order at 60¢ betting on Kevin Warsh to be selected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This single order currently accounts for 75% of the total buy volume at the 60¢ level.
On-Chain Wallet: 0xfC871296F1e2303b638967716A69252921510d34 Fund Flow: 0xfC87 -> New Wallet -> Polymarket
Since Trump publicly told Kevin Hassett last week, "I want you to stay where you are," Hassett's odds have plummeted from 40% to 6%. Meanwhile, Warsh, known as an "inflation hawk," has seen his probability jump from 40% to 60%. Other leading candidates include Christopher Waller (13%) and Rick Rieder (17%).
Account: 0xe29e34fd4326bccff4d8f3322b705bfcb35ba982
Position: $17.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two hours ago, a whale address holding over $5 million in on-chain assets created a new account and deposited $210,000. Subsequently, the address placed a limit buy order at 60¢ betting on Kevin Warsh to be selected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This single order currently accounts for 75% of the total buy volume at the 60¢ level.
On-Chain Wallet: 0xfC871296F1e2303b638967716A69252921510d34 Fund Flow: 0xfC87 -> New Wallet -> Polymarket
Since Trump publicly told Kevin Hassett last week, "I want you to stay where you are," Hassett's odds have plummeted from 40% to 6%. Meanwhile, Warsh, known as an "inflation hawk," has seen his probability jump from 40% to 60%. Other leading candidates include Christopher Waller (13%) and Rick Rieder (17%).
Account: 0xe29e34fd4326bccff4d8f3322b705bfcb35ba982
Position: $17.5k
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Trump Election Whale Returns; Bets $48k on US/Israel Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, an address that previously profited nearly $320,000 betting on Trump's election victory (with an average entry of 50–57¢) has returned in the last three hours. The account deposited funds to wager $43k (avg. 26¢) and $15k (avg. 30¢) that the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The probability of a US strike before Jan 31 had dropped from a peak of 80% four days ago to 19% but has since rebounded; both related markets currently sit at 28%.
US-Iran tensions remain critical. Recent reports on X suggest US and NATO military assets are continuing to move into the Middle East. While the Iranian President's January 18 warning—stating that "any attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei will be considered a declaration of war"—tempered market expectations regarding US action, the possibility of a military strike remains a key focus.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $48k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an address that previously profited nearly $320,000 betting on Trump's election victory (with an average entry of 50–57¢) has returned in the last three hours. The account deposited funds to wager $43k (avg. 26¢) and $15k (avg. 30¢) that the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The probability of a US strike before Jan 31 had dropped from a peak of 80% four days ago to 19% but has since rebounded; both related markets currently sit at 28%.
US-Iran tensions remain critical. Recent reports on X suggest US and NATO military assets are continuing to move into the Middle East. While the Iranian President's January 18 warning—stating that "any attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei will be considered a declaration of war"—tempered market expectations regarding US action, the possibility of a military strike remains a key focus.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $48k
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Prominent VC Continues Accumulating Positions on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, the new account suspected to belong to Hypersphere Capital (previously reported by this channel) has continued to increase its wager on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair at prices between 15–18¢. The account's total position now stands at $38.4k with an average cost of 14¢, while Rieder's current implied probability is 16%.
Following Trump's successful interview with Rieder two days ago, media reports yesterday cited sources indicating that Rieder might face an easier path to congressional confirmation, helping him stand out among candidates. He currently holds the second-highest probability in the market. Hypersphere Capital is a crypto-native VC that has invested in projects like LayerZero and Sentient; with half its portfolio focused on crypto infrastructure, the firm may have access to early macro information or hold a strategic view on the appointment.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Total Position: $38.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, the new account suspected to belong to Hypersphere Capital (previously reported by this channel) has continued to increase its wager on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair at prices between 15–18¢. The account's total position now stands at $38.4k with an average cost of 14¢, while Rieder's current implied probability is 16%.
Following Trump's successful interview with Rieder two days ago, media reports yesterday cited sources indicating that Rieder might face an easier path to congressional confirmation, helping him stand out among candidates. He currently holds the second-highest probability in the market. Hypersphere Capital is a crypto-native VC that has invested in projects like LayerZero and Sentient; with half its portfolio focused on crypto infrastructure, the firm may have access to early macro information or hold a strategic view on the appointment.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Total Position: $38.4k
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New Address Bets $177.5k on Khamenei Ouster by Mid-Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 24 hours, a new address—despite facing a significant drawdown—added $7.2k at 28¢ to a wager that Khamenei will leave office by the end of March. Currently, this address holds a total of $137.9k on the "Out by March 31" outcome (average cost 43¢, current price 27¢, down 38.51%). Additionally, the address has bet $39.6k on him leaving by mid-year, bringing the total exposure to $177.5k.
Recent developments focus on escalating tensions: reports indicate hackers briefly interrupted state TV with opposition content, and officials disclosed high casualty numbers from protests, which Khamenei blamed on external forces. Concurrently, Iranian leadership reiterated that any action against the Supreme Leader would be considered a declaration of war. While these updates highlight a regime under pressure, they do not yet point directly to a power transfer, deteriorating health, or systemic change.
Account: 0xbad457dc633bbb7b6cbe09dd5867a5e8e597acd7
Total Position: $177.5k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 24 hours, a new address—despite facing a significant drawdown—added $7.2k at 28¢ to a wager that Khamenei will leave office by the end of March. Currently, this address holds a total of $137.9k on the "Out by March 31" outcome (average cost 43¢, current price 27¢, down 38.51%). Additionally, the address has bet $39.6k on him leaving by mid-year, bringing the total exposure to $177.5k.
Recent developments focus on escalating tensions: reports indicate hackers briefly interrupted state TV with opposition content, and officials disclosed high casualty numbers from protests, which Khamenei blamed on external forces. Concurrently, Iranian leadership reiterated that any action against the Supreme Leader would be considered a declaration of war. While these updates highlight a regime under pressure, they do not yet point directly to a power transfer, deteriorating health, or systemic change.
Account: 0xbad457dc633bbb7b6cbe09dd5867a5e8e597acd7
Total Position: $177.5k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two New Addresses Bet $23k on US Acquiring Greenland
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered $23k within the last 4 hours that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The bets were executed at an average price of 20¢, where the market currently sits. The probability for this outcome has fluctuated between 17% and 23% over the past three days.
Over the last week, there have been no major developments indicating progress toward US sovereignty over the island. Trump reiterated his interest via Truth Social but has not proposed specific plans or initiated substantive negotiations. The Danish government has once again stated that Greenland's autonomous status is not up for negotiation, maintaining its consistent stance. Greenlandic officials have also reaffirmed their right to self-determination amidst renewed discussion following the US election.
Accounts: 0xd4631607200b15cd066f68c4db0a7152784f60bc 0x11d5fea1b7551b18eba7f9d7f18535c9177c1b17
Total Position: $23k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered $23k within the last 4 hours that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The bets were executed at an average price of 20¢, where the market currently sits. The probability for this outcome has fluctuated between 17% and 23% over the past three days.
Over the last week, there have been no major developments indicating progress toward US sovereignty over the island. Trump reiterated his interest via Truth Social but has not proposed specific plans or initiated substantive negotiations. The Danish government has once again stated that Greenland's autonomous status is not up for negotiation, maintaining its consistent stance. Greenlandic officials have also reaffirmed their right to self-determination amidst renewed discussion following the US election.
Accounts: 0xd4631607200b15cd066f68c4db0a7152784f60bc 0x11d5fea1b7551b18eba7f9d7f18535c9177c1b17
Total Position: $23k
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Elon Musk Feuds with Budget Airline CEO; 3 New Addresses Bet $30k on Ryanair Buyout
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new addresses have placed bets within the last five hours that Elon Musk will acquire budget carrier Ryanair before July. These three users are now the top 3 holders of "Yes" shares, with the implied probability sitting at 12%.
Musk has been pushing Starlink connectivity for airlines to enhance passenger experience. A week ago, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary explicitly rejected Starlink, stating Musk "knows nothing about aviation." The feud escalated days later when O'Leary called Musk an "idiot" in an interview, prompting Musk to retort on X that O'Leary is a "complete fool." Following a user comment suggesting a takeover, Musk replied "Good idea" and later posted, "Should I buy Ryanair and appoint a real person named Ryan as CEO?"—hinting at a potential buyout and O'Leary's removal.
Accounts: 0x00c46258190c82a9f547bd9a5334e1e7f2457826 0x7988a554ba97b8046f527db6955c5a31defdf3f3 0x02335c1a5c5e7849265fa06daa474bce4dd25dd0
Position: $29.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new addresses have placed bets within the last five hours that Elon Musk will acquire budget carrier Ryanair before July. These three users are now the top 3 holders of "Yes" shares, with the implied probability sitting at 12%.
Musk has been pushing Starlink connectivity for airlines to enhance passenger experience. A week ago, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary explicitly rejected Starlink, stating Musk "knows nothing about aviation." The feud escalated days later when O'Leary called Musk an "idiot" in an interview, prompting Musk to retort on X that O'Leary is a "complete fool." Following a user comment suggesting a takeover, Musk replied "Good idea" and later posted, "Should I buy Ryanair and appoint a real person named Ryan as CEO?"—hinting at a potential buyout and O'Leary's removal.
Accounts: 0x00c46258190c82a9f547bd9a5334e1e7f2457826 0x7988a554ba97b8046f527db6955c5a31defdf3f3 0x02335c1a5c5e7849265fa06daa474bce4dd25dd0
Position: $29.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
PolyBeats（EN）
Saylor Hints at BTC Buy; 6 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet Against It On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement…
Update: MicroStrategy Makes No Announcement; Market Set to Resolve "No"
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 13-19" has no remaining buy orders for "Yes" and is set to resolve as "No." The six high-win-rate accounts previously reported have accrued over $25,000 in floating profits from this position.
MicroStrategy did not release any purchase announcement on January 19 (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). However, due to founder Michael Saylor’s earlier "₿igger Orange." tweet hinting at an imminent purchase, the probability for the "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 20-26" market has now surged above 99%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 13-19" has no remaining buy orders for "Yes" and is set to resolve as "No." The six high-win-rate accounts previously reported have accrued over $25,000 in floating profits from this position.
MicroStrategy did not release any purchase announcement on January 19 (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). However, due to founder Michael Saylor’s earlier "₿igger Orange." tweet hinting at an imminent purchase, the probability for the "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 20-26" market has now surged above 99%.
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Rockstar Studio Explosion; GTA 6 Delayed Again?
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a GTA 6 release delay holds steady at 43%, showing no significant change over the past week.
On November 6, 2025, Rockstar's parent company Take-Two announced that the release of GTA 6 would be postponed from the originally scheduled May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026. Yesterday, a boiler explosion at Rockstar’s Edinburgh studio led to a brief closure and employee evacuation, temporarily sparking rumors that "GTA 6 is delayed again."
As of now, the company has confirmed that the studio has reopened and development is unaffected, with no indications of a further delay.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a GTA 6 release delay holds steady at 43%, showing no significant change over the past week.
On November 6, 2025, Rockstar's parent company Take-Two announced that the release of GTA 6 would be postponed from the originally scheduled May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026. Yesterday, a boiler explosion at Rockstar’s Edinburgh studio led to a brief closure and employee evacuation, temporarily sparking rumors that "GTA 6 is delayed again."
As of now, the company has confirmed that the studio has reopened and development is unaffected, with no indications of a further delay.
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First Lady Documentary Premieres Jan 30; Box Office Likely to Underperform
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the "Melania" documentary will gross over $3 million in its opening weekend stands at just 25%.
Budgeted at $40 million—with a reported $28 million payout to the First Lady herself—the film highlights her life in the White House and her independent persona. It features exclusive behind-the-scenes footage from the 20 days leading up to Trump's second inauguration in January 2025, tracking her preparations for the ceremony, management of the transition, the family's move back to D.C., and her return to the role of First Lady.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the "Melania" documentary will gross over $3 million in its opening weekend stands at just 25%.
Budgeted at $40 million—with a reported $28 million payout to the First Lady herself—the film highlights her life in the White House and her independent persona. It features exclusive behind-the-scenes footage from the 20 days leading up to Trump's second inauguration in January 2025, tracking her preparations for the ceremony, management of the transition, the family's move back to D.C., and her return to the role of First Lady.
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Rick Rieder Odds Surge; Prominent VC Increases Position to $81.5k
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Fed Chair has risen 10% to 25% over the past day, while the frontrunner Kevin Warsh has dropped 12% to 48%. The new account suspected to be Hypersphere Capital—previously reported by this channel—has continued to add to its wager, bringing its total position to $81.5k with an average cost of 17¢.
In the past 24 hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump could announce his choice as early as next week, with four candidates, including Rieder, still under consideration. Multiple reports emphasize that a decision is imminent, with some market analysts suggesting Rieder may face an easier path to Senate confirmation.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $81.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Fed Chair has risen 10% to 25% over the past day, while the frontrunner Kevin Warsh has dropped 12% to 48%. The new account suspected to be Hypersphere Capital—previously reported by this channel—has continued to add to its wager, bringing its total position to $81.5k with an average cost of 17¢.
In the past 24 hours, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump could announce his choice as early as next week, with four candidates, including Rieder, still under consideration. Multiple reports emphasize that a decision is imminent, with some market analysts suggesting Rieder may face an easier path to Senate confirmation.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $81.5k
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"TheBigBlind" Doubles Down on Khamenei Ouster with $13k Bet Despite $145k Loss
On the prediction market Polymarket, the user "TheBigBlind"—despite having already lost $145.7k betting on Iranian regime change—has persisted over the past day by wagering an additional $13k that Khamenei will be ousted. The user deployed $3k at 6¢ for an exit before January 31 and $10k at 20¢ for an exit before March 31. The current probabilities for these markets stand at 6% and 17%, respectively, bringing TheBigBlind's total open interest in these positions to $36.9k.
Mass protests sparked by economic distress, inflation, and currency devaluation have continued across Iran for weeks. With the internet almost completely shut down by the government, the UN Human Rights Council has announced an emergency meeting to address the "shocking situation of violence," with official estimates suggesting thousands of deaths. Reports also indicate that a soldier was sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters, highlighting deep internal divisions and the regime's hardline enforcement.
Account: 0x34d27af7413310a83ee83566ecd5a193e63c75a8
Position: $36.9k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the user "TheBigBlind"—despite having already lost $145.7k betting on Iranian regime change—has persisted over the past day by wagering an additional $13k that Khamenei will be ousted. The user deployed $3k at 6¢ for an exit before January 31 and $10k at 20¢ for an exit before March 31. The current probabilities for these markets stand at 6% and 17%, respectively, bringing TheBigBlind's total open interest in these positions to $36.9k.
Mass protests sparked by economic distress, inflation, and currency devaluation have continued across Iran for weeks. With the internet almost completely shut down by the government, the UN Human Rights Council has announced an emergency meeting to address the "shocking situation of violence," with official estimates suggesting thousands of deaths. Reports also indicate that a soldier was sentenced to death for refusing to fire on protesters, highlighting deep internal divisions and the regime's hardline enforcement.
Account: 0x34d27af7413310a83ee83566ecd5a193e63c75a8
Position: $36.9k
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"10u Warrior" Suddenly Drops $45k Betting on California Billionaire Tax Passing in 2026
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month—previously averaging position sizes of just $10—has suddenly wagered $45,000 that the California Billionaire Tax will pass in the 2026 election. The probability of passage currently stands at 51%.
The proposal, titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," aims to levy a one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Notably, the resolution criteria for a "Yes" outcome are extremely strict given the legal timeline. The market requires the following conditions to be met:
Collect 875,000 voter signatures and qualify for the ballot by June 25.
Secure enough votes to enact the legislation by November 3.
Both steps must be completed for the market to resolve as "Yes."
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $44k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month—previously averaging position sizes of just $10—has suddenly wagered $45,000 that the California Billionaire Tax will pass in the 2026 election. The probability of passage currently stands at 51%.
The proposal, titled the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," aims to levy a one-time 5% wealth tax on California residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion. Notably, the resolution criteria for a "Yes" outcome are extremely strict given the legal timeline. The market requires the following conditions to be met:
Collect 875,000 voter signatures and qualify for the ballot by June 25.
Secure enough votes to enact the legislation by November 3.
Both steps must be completed for the market to resolve as "Yes."
Account: 0xee0ff4a9de23e758e3f8d128b4f25fd6f62c4cf5
Position: $44k
-------------------
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US Stocks Plunge; Probability of S&P 500 Dropping 2%+ in Q1 Surges 50% to 99.7%
On the prediction market Polymarket, under the new event "S&P 500 Q1 Daily % Change," the probability for a "Drop < -2%" surged 50% to 99.8%, signaling imminent resolution, while the "Drop < -1%" market rose 23% to 100%.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,796 on January 20, dropping approximately 2.06%. A major driver of Tuesday's slump was the U.S. President's announcement of planned new tariffs on multiple EU countries, which ignited global concerns over escalating trade tensions and led to a sell-off in risk assets. Tech stocks were particularly hard hit, dragging down the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw gains.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, under the new event "S&P 500 Q1 Daily % Change," the probability for a "Drop < -2%" surged 50% to 99.8%, signaling imminent resolution, while the "Drop < -1%" market rose 23% to 100%.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,796 on January 20, dropping approximately 2.06%. A major driver of Tuesday's slump was the U.S. President's announcement of planned new tariffs on multiple EU countries, which ignited global concerns over escalating trade tensions and led to a sell-off in risk assets. Tech stocks were particularly hard hit, dragging down the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver saw gains.
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Top Free Solo Climber to Challenge Taipei 101 This Week; Market Bets on Climb Duration
On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are debating how long it will take famous climber Alex Honnold to summit Taipei 101. The probability that the climb will take between "1 hour to 1 hour 45 minutes" currently stands at 72%.
Alex Honnold is a world-renowned free soloist, celebrated for climbing steep rock faces without ropes or protective gear. His most famous achievement includes his 2017 ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park, which took nearly four hours.
In late 2025, Honnold expressed interest in urban climbing and announced he will "free solo" Taipei 101 on January 24 at approximately 9:00 AM. Standing 509 meters tall, Taipei 101 is the city's landmark skyscraper and held the title of the world's tallest building from 2004 to 2010.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are debating how long it will take famous climber Alex Honnold to summit Taipei 101. The probability that the climb will take between "1 hour to 1 hour 45 minutes" currently stands at 72%.
Alex Honnold is a world-renowned free soloist, celebrated for climbing steep rock faces without ropes or protective gear. His most famous achievement includes his 2017 ascent of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park, which took nearly four hours.
In late 2025, Honnold expressed interest in urban climbing and announced he will "free solo" Taipei 101 on January 24 at approximately 9:00 AM. Standing 509 meters tall, Taipei 101 is the city's landmark skyscraper and held the title of the world's tallest building from 2004 to 2010.
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New Account Up 5x on Fed Chair Bet; Doubles Down on US Govt Shutdown
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account reported a week ago—which wagered on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair at an average price of 4¢—is now sitting on unrealized gains exceeding 5x. Since last week, this account has been heavily accumulating positions betting that the US government will shut down again this month. The current probability of a shutdown stands at 12%.
On January 20, the US Congress released a massive funding bill aimed at financing defense, labor, health services, and homeland security to avoid a lapse in critical functions similar to last year.
However, following several recent violent incidents involving immigration enforcement officers within the US, multiple Democrats have expressed concern over the bill's lack of oversight clauses. Rep. Ted Lieu has publicly stated that he will not vote for the current bill unless specific reforms are included.
Account: 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531
Position: $7.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account reported a week ago—which wagered on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair at an average price of 4¢—is now sitting on unrealized gains exceeding 5x. Since last week, this account has been heavily accumulating positions betting that the US government will shut down again this month. The current probability of a shutdown stands at 12%.
On January 20, the US Congress released a massive funding bill aimed at financing defense, labor, health services, and homeland security to avoid a lapse in critical functions similar to last year.
However, following several recent violent incidents involving immigration enforcement officers within the US, multiple Democrats have expressed concern over the bill's lack of oversight clauses. Rep. Ted Lieu has publicly stated that he will not vote for the current bill unless specific reforms are included.
Account: 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531
Position: $7.7k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
ICO Rule Change & Team Dump Spark Outrage; Community Calls for Trove Founder's Arrest
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Trove Founder arrested by Mar 31?" was created today, with the probability currently standing at 29%.
Trove Markets, a DEX project for RWA trading promoted since late last year, was founded by the anonymous account "unwisecap."
Recent suspicious behavior by the Trove team has sparked outrage among the community and investors. During the ICO phase, the team abruptly modified rules, causing drastic shifts in Polymarket's "ICO Raise Amount" market and fueling suspicions of insider betting prior to the change. On January 18, the project announced a migration from the Hyperliquid ecosystem to Solana, and angel round funds were subsequently traced to casino addresses.
Following the official launch of the TROVE token on Solana on January 19, multiple new wallets that received large allocations dumped their holdings immediately, crashing the price by over 95% within 15 minutes. Additionally, funds raised in excess during the presale have not been refunded, with the team claiming they will be used for "rebuilding" or personal purposes.
Currently, on-chain sleuth ZachXBT has exposed a photo of the suspected founder, and multiple investors have begun retaining lawyers to initiate a class-action lawsuit against unwisecap.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Justin Sun Claims He's "Willing to Spend $30M to Meet Musk"; Odds of 2026 Meeting at 59%
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Justin Sun to meet Elon Musk in 2026?" was launched today, with the current probability sitting at 59%.
On January 15, X user ambuikem posted a photo of Elon Musk in a conference room—seemingly sitting right next to him—with the caption: "24 hours with Elon Musk or $30 million?"
On January 18, Justin Sun quote-tweeted the post, replying: "I am willing to pay Elon Musk $30 million to buy one hour of his time to speak with him." It was this declaration that spurred the creation of the market.
Sun is infamous for similar high-profile stunts, most notably in 2019 when he paid a record-breaking $4.57 million for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. He used the event to aggressively market TRON, claiming he would bring blockchain leaders to "evangelize" cryptocurrency to the Oracle of Omaha. While Buffett remained uninterested in crypto, Sun successfully leveraged the overwhelming media coverage for significant brand exposure.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Justin Sun to meet Elon Musk in 2026?" was launched today, with the current probability sitting at 59%.
On January 15, X user ambuikem posted a photo of Elon Musk in a conference room—seemingly sitting right next to him—with the caption: "24 hours with Elon Musk or $30 million?"
On January 18, Justin Sun quote-tweeted the post, replying: "I am willing to pay Elon Musk $30 million to buy one hour of his time to speak with him." It was this declaration that spurred the creation of the market.
Sun is infamous for similar high-profile stunts, most notably in 2019 when he paid a record-breaking $4.57 million for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett. He used the event to aggressively market TRON, claiming he would bring blockchain leaders to "evangelize" cryptocurrency to the Oracle of Omaha. While Buffett remained uninterested in crypto, Sun successfully leveraged the overwhelming media coverage for significant brand exposure.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN