4 Accounts Bet on US Strike Against Iran Before Jan 16 in Past Day
On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts have placed bets within the last day that the U.S. will strike Iran before January 16. One is a new account, while the other three trade exclusively in Iran-related markets. The current probability for this outcome sits at 23%.
Over the past 48 hours, nations including the U.S. and France have announced the evacuation of diplomatic missions in Iran or urged citizens to leave immediately. On Truth Social, Trump stated that if Iran shoots peaceful protesters, the U.S. "will come to the rescue," urging protesters to continue and declaring that "help is on the way."
Multiple markets related to a U.S. strike on Iran have seen varying gains in the last 48 hours. The probability of a strike by January 31 peaked at 76% earlier today and currently stands at 62%—marking an increase of over 350% since this channel's initial report on January 5.
Accounts: 0xe65a4ca7f2de70f5f17bf01e084670d64e6dce48 0x87ca1e498a111b19331d8d7c5a938f9918023448 0x1005e8df5428fd66e11586c420574584f0066f5b 0xd303c7f51a14920fa19ae04d0e60bd76b5c2a125
Total Position: $28.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts have placed bets within the last day that the U.S. will strike Iran before January 16. One is a new account, while the other three trade exclusively in Iran-related markets. The current probability for this outcome sits at 23%.
Over the past 48 hours, nations including the U.S. and France have announced the evacuation of diplomatic missions in Iran or urged citizens to leave immediately. On Truth Social, Trump stated that if Iran shoots peaceful protesters, the U.S. "will come to the rescue," urging protesters to continue and declaring that "help is on the way."
Multiple markets related to a U.S. strike on Iran have seen varying gains in the last 48 hours. The probability of a strike by January 31 peaked at 76% earlier today and currently stands at 62%—marking an increase of over 350% since this channel's initial report on January 5.
Accounts: 0xe65a4ca7f2de70f5f17bf01e084670d64e6dce48 0x87ca1e498a111b19331d8d7c5a938f9918023448 0x1005e8df5428fd66e11586c420574584f0066f5b 0xd303c7f51a14920fa19ae04d0e60bd76b5c2a125
Total Position: $28.4k
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New Address Bets $40k Believing US Will Strike Iran Within Hours
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address began heavily buying "Yes" shares five hours ago, betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on January 14 (ET). The account deployed $40k at an average cost of 16¢, instantly igniting market activity. The probability spiked to a high of 60% before rapidly collapsing to 3%. The address is currently down 70% and has not sold.
Over the past day, Iran has closed its airspace, and the Trump team continues to enforce its "maximum pressure" policy. The "Pentagon Pizza Index" is also showing anomalies, yet there have been no reports of U.S. drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian territory.
Account: 0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59
Position: $40k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address began heavily buying "Yes" shares five hours ago, betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on January 14 (ET). The account deployed $40k at an average cost of 16¢, instantly igniting market activity. The probability spiked to a high of 60% before rapidly collapsing to 3%. The address is currently down 70% and has not sold.
Over the past day, Iran has closed its airspace, and the Trump team continues to enforce its "maximum pressure" policy. The "Pentagon Pizza Index" is also showing anomalies, yet there have been no reports of U.S. drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian territory.
Account: 0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59
Position: $40k
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Logan Paul Auctions World's Most Expensive Pokémon Card; 4 New Addresses Up Nearly 100%
On the prediction market Polymarket, four addresses are betting that Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card will sell for over $10 million. Having placed their bets when the odds were around 35%, the current probability for this outcome has surged to 80%.
Logan Paul, a viral sensation and top influencer, began auctioning his PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card (purchased in 2021 for $5.275 million) last week. Current bidding has already reached $6 million.
Accounts: 0xb98279441da1aff41d426dee2170df35b1150fc8 0x7acae0fa111a5b96d03a21e13e19472ec666ef71 0xcbd2657470324062bb0e3fdea3fbd2e6f77bbfd9 0xc8c2e35222f6b28a794773c9cd15e61f5f882d1c
Total Position: $20.3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four addresses are betting that Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card will sell for over $10 million. Having placed their bets when the odds were around 35%, the current probability for this outcome has surged to 80%.
Logan Paul, a viral sensation and top influencer, began auctioning his PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card (purchased in 2021 for $5.275 million) last week. Current bidding has already reached $6 million.
Accounts: 0xb98279441da1aff41d426dee2170df35b1150fc8 0x7acae0fa111a5b96d03a21e13e19472ec666ef71 0xcbd2657470324062bb0e3fdea3fbd2e6f77bbfd9 0xc8c2e35222f6b28a794773c9cd15e61f5f882d1c
Total Position: $20.3k
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Suspected Hypersphere Capital Wallet Bets on Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market orders ten minutes ago betting that Trump will nominate Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This buying pressure drove their average entry price to 18 cents, far exceeding the 8% probability observed over the last two days.
Fund tracing reveals the address is flagged by Arkham as likely belonging to Hypersphere Capital, a venture capital firm focused on blockchain and DeFi. The address held assets peaking at $30 million early last year and utilizes a Coinbase Prime account, a service dedicated to institutional investors such as asset managers and market makers.
Fox Business reports that Trump is scheduled to interview Rick Rieder for the role at the White House this Thursday. In a CNBC interview, Rieder stated that the Fed Chair position is independent and reiterated the need to bring interest rates down to 3%—a reduction of at least another 50 basis points—to support economic growth.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $10k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market orders ten minutes ago betting that Trump will nominate Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This buying pressure drove their average entry price to 18 cents, far exceeding the 8% probability observed over the last two days.
Fund tracing reveals the address is flagged by Arkham as likely belonging to Hypersphere Capital, a venture capital firm focused on blockchain and DeFi. The address held assets peaking at $30 million early last year and utilizes a Coinbase Prime account, a service dedicated to institutional investors such as asset managers and market makers.
Fox Business reports that Trump is scheduled to interview Rick Rieder for the role at the White House this Thursday. In a CNBC interview, Rieder stated that the Fed Chair position is independent and reiterated the need to bring interest rates down to 3%—a reduction of at least another 50 basis points—to support economic growth.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $10k
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Financial Firm with $1B+ Daily Volume Bets on US Strike on Iran This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10,000 one hour ago that the US will strike Iran this month. The account currently retains an additional $15,000 in funds, and the market probability stands at 56%.
Fund tracing links the on-chain wallet to AP Capital, a diversified financial investment firm founded in 2014 with operations spanning equities, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency.
Fund Flow: AP Capital (0x4c78) -> 2 New Addresses -> Relay -> Polymarket
Several hours ago, Trump stated that a "very important source from the other side" assured him that Tehran has stopped using lethal force against protesters and that executions will not proceed. Some analysts interpret this statement as a sign of potential de-escalation.
Account: 0x66b43362c2db730f3f888736ea354d9d75261473
Position: $10k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10,000 one hour ago that the US will strike Iran this month. The account currently retains an additional $15,000 in funds, and the market probability stands at 56%.
Fund tracing links the on-chain wallet to AP Capital, a diversified financial investment firm founded in 2014 with operations spanning equities, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency.
Fund Flow: AP Capital (0x4c78) -> 2 New Addresses -> Relay -> Polymarket
Several hours ago, Trump stated that a "very important source from the other side" assured him that Tehran has stopped using lethal force against protesters and that executions will not proceed. Some analysts interpret this statement as a sign of potential de-escalation.
Account: 0x66b43362c2db730f3f888736ea354d9d75261473
Position: $10k
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New Address Bets $54.8k on US Strike on Iran Within Three Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $54.8k over the past 12 hours across the markets for January 15–18, betting that the US will strike Iran. Currently, the address is down $40.8k on these positions.
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, though no direct military strike has occurred yet. Over the past week, President-elect Trump’s national security team has signaled a tougher stance, with nominee Pete Hegseth suggesting that preemptive action against Iranian nuclear facilities should be considered if provoked.
Meanwhile, Iran has conducted missile tests and launched proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping via the Houthis, prompting a response from the US Navy. However, these actions have not yet involved a direct strike on Iranian soil.
Account: 0x3da842c722f7b6b429b5e0ff4dc6a4da065b8262
Total Position: $54.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $54.8k over the past 12 hours across the markets for January 15–18, betting that the US will strike Iran. Currently, the address is down $40.8k on these positions.
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, though no direct military strike has occurred yet. Over the past week, President-elect Trump’s national security team has signaled a tougher stance, with nominee Pete Hegseth suggesting that preemptive action against Iranian nuclear facilities should be considered if provoked.
Meanwhile, Iran has conducted missile tests and launched proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping via the Houthis, prompting a response from the US Navy. However, these actions have not yet involved a direct strike on Iranian soil.
Account: 0x3da842c722f7b6b429b5e0ff4dc6a4da065b8262
Total Position: $54.8k
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Yen Weakness Fuels Inflation Fears; BOJ March Rate Hike Probability Soars
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Bank of Japan "25bps Rate Hike" in March currently stands at 26%, a significant jump from just 8% three days ago. Meanwhile, the probability of "No Change" for the January policy decision remains stable at 97%.
The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the potential impact of a weak Yen on inflation. Although the central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, exchange rate dynamics could prompt a reassessment of the timeline for future hikes, potentially forcing earlier action.
Officials believe the influence of a weak Yen on prices is intensifying, particularly as companies increasingly pass rising input costs on to consumers, which could further exacerbate inflationary pressures. Despite the BOJ raising benchmark rates just last month, the previously anticipated pace of hikes—roughly every six months—may face uncertainty if the Yen continues to weaken.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Bank of Japan "25bps Rate Hike" in March currently stands at 26%, a significant jump from just 8% three days ago. Meanwhile, the probability of "No Change" for the January policy decision remains stable at 97%.
The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the potential impact of a weak Yen on inflation. Although the central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, exchange rate dynamics could prompt a reassessment of the timeline for future hikes, potentially forcing earlier action.
Officials believe the influence of a weak Yen on prices is intensifying, particularly as companies increasingly pass rising input costs on to consumers, which could further exacerbate inflationary pressures. Despite the BOJ raising benchmark rates just last month, the previously anticipated pace of hikes—roughly every six months—may face uncertainty if the Yen continues to weaken.
----------------------
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New Address Bets $42k on Péter Magyar as Next Hungarian PM
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $8k in the past day to a wager that Péter Magyar will be the next Prime Minister of Hungary. This address, which trades exclusively in this market and has been consistently buying "Yes," has now deployed a total of $42k, making it the second-largest holder.
Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has surged in recent polls, leading Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz by 10–15 percentage points nationwide. This momentum is driven by a massive rally of approximately 35,000 people in Budapest and a shift among centrist voters disillusioned with Orbán’s long-standing rule. Magyar continues to target corruption within the Orbán administration—highlighting leaked audio recordings alleging bribery involving Fidesz—which has further amplified his political capital amidst ongoing EU funding negotiations.
Account: 0xded313b467fce8ff1d6b009d26f47f3af7f0fe68
Position: $42k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $8k in the past day to a wager that Péter Magyar will be the next Prime Minister of Hungary. This address, which trades exclusively in this market and has been consistently buying "Yes," has now deployed a total of $42k, making it the second-largest holder.
Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has surged in recent polls, leading Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz by 10–15 percentage points nationwide. This momentum is driven by a massive rally of approximately 35,000 people in Budapest and a shift among centrist voters disillusioned with Orbán’s long-standing rule. Magyar continues to target corruption within the Orbán administration—highlighting leaked audio recordings alleging bribery involving Fidesz—which has further amplified his political capital amidst ongoing EU funding negotiations.
Account: 0xded313b467fce8ff1d6b009d26f47f3af7f0fe68
Position: $42k
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Two New Addresses Bet $7.5k on Rick Rieder for Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $7.5k over the past day—at an average price of 9 to 19 cents—that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Since this channel's initial report, his implied probability has doubled to 20%, making him the second leading candidate on Polymarket. The venture capital account previously reported by this channel has also turned a $10.5k paper loss into a $13k profit.
Multiple media outlets report that Rieder has met with Trump; the meeting reportedly went well, and Rieder is now considered a key candidate on the shortlist for the next Fed Chair.
Accounts: 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d
Total Position: $7.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $7.5k over the past day—at an average price of 9 to 19 cents—that Rick Rieder will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Since this channel's initial report, his implied probability has doubled to 20%, making him the second leading candidate on Polymarket. The venture capital account previously reported by this channel has also turned a $10.5k paper loss into a $13k profit.
Multiple media outlets report that Rieder has met with Trump; the meeting reportedly went well, and Rieder is now considered a key candidate on the shortlist for the next Fed Chair.
Accounts: 0x11d94288def16d483c2f3f5de4e62d239100dc96 0x9defea73d64dd6606e9dfc0536b8b07541e46b9d
Total Position: $7.5k
----------------------
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Saylor Hints at BTC Buy; 6 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet Against It
On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement stands at 26%.
These six accounts share a collective track record of 33 trades related to MicroStrategy purchases, boasting a 94% win rate and over $65,000 in profits.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted "₿igger Orange." 14 hours ago—a signal typically preceding a purchase announcement.
However, January 19 is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a U.S. market holiday. Historically, MicroStrategy has announced a purchase on a holiday only once (May 26, 2025), which was done via an official press conference. Given the lack of an official statement on the 19th so far, the market anticipates that despite the founder's hint, the formal announcement will likely be postponed to the 20th due to the market closure.
Accounts: 0x9d4b905c57f466005ef13ac04693c4653030b8e6 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x1dd63f9a20170043cd28c9242d200c74e36dc0c2 0x899a258f5a379be61c567fc567c1fb4e5c6d63ff 0x343fdd2bf9272bd12cffbfe510f3969f57e36df2
Position: $44k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement stands at 26%.
These six accounts share a collective track record of 33 trades related to MicroStrategy purchases, boasting a 94% win rate and over $65,000 in profits.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted "₿igger Orange." 14 hours ago—a signal typically preceding a purchase announcement.
However, January 19 is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a U.S. market holiday. Historically, MicroStrategy has announced a purchase on a holiday only once (May 26, 2025), which was done via an official press conference. Given the lack of an official statement on the 19th so far, the market anticipates that despite the founder's hint, the formal announcement will likely be postponed to the 20th due to the market closure.
Accounts: 0x9d4b905c57f466005ef13ac04693c4653030b8e6 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x5652090d21c85a9d1ca5b6a41fe07f3099fb00c9 0x1dd63f9a20170043cd28c9242d200c74e36dc0c2 0x899a258f5a379be61c567fc567c1fb4e5c6d63ff 0x343fdd2bf9272bd12cffbfe510f3969f57e36df2
Position: $44k
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Two New Addresses Bet $15k on André Ventura to Win Portugal Presidential Election at 5% Odds
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $15k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5¢—that André Ventura will win the Portuguese presidential election. Currently, frontrunner António José Seguro leads the market with a commanding 94% probability, while André Ventura sits in second place, hovering between 4% and 5% for the past week.
The Portuguese election has entered a runoff phase: results from the first round on January 18 show independent/center-left candidate António José Seguro leading with nearly 31%, followed by far-right Chega leader André Ventura with approximately 24%. The second round of voting is confirmed for February 8. While this marks a strong entry for the far-right into the final stage, analysts point out that Ventura's "high rejection rate" could limit his ability to expand his voter base, leading the market to heavily favor Seguro.
Accounts: 0x7fccad417e52c4e7b050f078ffd22553464ee083 0xd6aedd533ab9a7081b60dd45e6cc79dfda85254a
Total Position: $15k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new addresses have wagered $15k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5¢—that André Ventura will win the Portuguese presidential election. Currently, frontrunner António José Seguro leads the market with a commanding 94% probability, while André Ventura sits in second place, hovering between 4% and 5% for the past week.
The Portuguese election has entered a runoff phase: results from the first round on January 18 show independent/center-left candidate António José Seguro leading with nearly 31%, followed by far-right Chega leader André Ventura with approximately 24%. The second round of voting is confirmed for February 8. While this marks a strong entry for the far-right into the final stage, analysts point out that Ventura's "high rejection rate" could limit his ability to expand his voter base, leading the market to heavily favor Seguro.
Accounts: 0x7fccad417e52c4e7b050f078ffd22553464ee083 0xd6aedd533ab9a7081b60dd45e6cc79dfda85254a
Total Position: $15k
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Trump Reaffirms Greenland's Strategic Role; Whale Bets $160k on US Acquisition This Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month has placed a significant bet that Trump will acquire Greenland in 2026. This account is now the top holder of "Yes" shares, with the market probability currently standing at 21%.
On January 16, Trump stated that the U.S. needs Greenland for national security "whether they like it or not." Following a high-level meeting between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland on the 18th, Trump reiterated his determination to acquire the island, stating he would not rule out the use of force. Reports indicate that the EU is preparing €93 billion in tariffs to counter Trump's tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies in defense of Greenland's sovereignty.
Account: 0x13697826456e87f46b798901a7766cc6589d02c0
Position: $160k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account created this month has placed a significant bet that Trump will acquire Greenland in 2026. This account is now the top holder of "Yes" shares, with the market probability currently standing at 21%.
On January 16, Trump stated that the U.S. needs Greenland for national security "whether they like it or not." Following a high-level meeting between the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland on the 18th, Trump reiterated his determination to acquire the island, stating he would not rule out the use of force. Reports indicate that the EU is preparing €93 billion in tariffs to counter Trump's tariff threats against Denmark and other NATO allies in defense of Greenland's sovereignty.
Account: 0x13697826456e87f46b798901a7766cc6589d02c0
Position: $160k
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❤1
Kevin Warsh Emerges as Fed Chair Favorite; Whale Places $200k Limit Order
On the prediction market Polymarket, two hours ago, a whale address holding over $5 million in on-chain assets created a new account and deposited $210,000. Subsequently, the address placed a limit buy order at 60¢ betting on Kevin Warsh to be selected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This single order currently accounts for 75% of the total buy volume at the 60¢ level.
On-Chain Wallet: 0xfC871296F1e2303b638967716A69252921510d34 Fund Flow: 0xfC87 -> New Wallet -> Polymarket
Since Trump publicly told Kevin Hassett last week, "I want you to stay where you are," Hassett's odds have plummeted from 40% to 6%. Meanwhile, Warsh, known as an "inflation hawk," has seen his probability jump from 40% to 60%. Other leading candidates include Christopher Waller (13%) and Rick Rieder (17%).
Account: 0xe29e34fd4326bccff4d8f3322b705bfcb35ba982
Position: $17.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two hours ago, a whale address holding over $5 million in on-chain assets created a new account and deposited $210,000. Subsequently, the address placed a limit buy order at 60¢ betting on Kevin Warsh to be selected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This single order currently accounts for 75% of the total buy volume at the 60¢ level.
On-Chain Wallet: 0xfC871296F1e2303b638967716A69252921510d34 Fund Flow: 0xfC87 -> New Wallet -> Polymarket
Since Trump publicly told Kevin Hassett last week, "I want you to stay where you are," Hassett's odds have plummeted from 40% to 6%. Meanwhile, Warsh, known as an "inflation hawk," has seen his probability jump from 40% to 60%. Other leading candidates include Christopher Waller (13%) and Rick Rieder (17%).
Account: 0xe29e34fd4326bccff4d8f3322b705bfcb35ba982
Position: $17.5k
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Trump Election Whale Returns; Bets $48k on US/Israel Strike on Iran Before Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, an address that previously profited nearly $320,000 betting on Trump's election victory (with an average entry of 50–57¢) has returned in the last three hours. The account deposited funds to wager $43k (avg. 26¢) and $15k (avg. 30¢) that the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The probability of a US strike before Jan 31 had dropped from a peak of 80% four days ago to 19% but has since rebounded; both related markets currently sit at 28%.
US-Iran tensions remain critical. Recent reports on X suggest US and NATO military assets are continuing to move into the Middle East. While the Iranian President's January 18 warning—stating that "any attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei will be considered a declaration of war"—tempered market expectations regarding US action, the possibility of a military strike remains a key focus.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $48k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an address that previously profited nearly $320,000 betting on Trump's election victory (with an average entry of 50–57¢) has returned in the last three hours. The account deposited funds to wager $43k (avg. 26¢) and $15k (avg. 30¢) that the US or Israel will strike Iran before January 31. The probability of a US strike before Jan 31 had dropped from a peak of 80% four days ago to 19% but has since rebounded; both related markets currently sit at 28%.
US-Iran tensions remain critical. Recent reports on X suggest US and NATO military assets are continuing to move into the Middle East. While the Iranian President's January 18 warning—stating that "any attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei will be considered a declaration of war"—tempered market expectations regarding US action, the possibility of a military strike remains a key focus.
Account: 0xcb2952fd655813ad0f9ee893122c54298e1a975e
Total Position: $48k
----------------------
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Prominent VC Continues Accumulating Positions on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, the new account suspected to belong to Hypersphere Capital (previously reported by this channel) has continued to increase its wager on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair at prices between 15–18¢. The account's total position now stands at $38.4k with an average cost of 14¢, while Rieder's current implied probability is 16%.
Following Trump's successful interview with Rieder two days ago, media reports yesterday cited sources indicating that Rieder might face an easier path to congressional confirmation, helping him stand out among candidates. He currently holds the second-highest probability in the market. Hypersphere Capital is a crypto-native VC that has invested in projects like LayerZero and Sentient; with half its portfolio focused on crypto infrastructure, the firm may have access to early macro information or hold a strategic view on the appointment.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Total Position: $38.4k
-------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, the new account suspected to belong to Hypersphere Capital (previously reported by this channel) has continued to increase its wager on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair at prices between 15–18¢. The account's total position now stands at $38.4k with an average cost of 14¢, while Rieder's current implied probability is 16%.
Following Trump's successful interview with Rieder two days ago, media reports yesterday cited sources indicating that Rieder might face an easier path to congressional confirmation, helping him stand out among candidates. He currently holds the second-highest probability in the market. Hypersphere Capital is a crypto-native VC that has invested in projects like LayerZero and Sentient; with half its portfolio focused on crypto infrastructure, the firm may have access to early macro information or hold a strategic view on the appointment.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Total Position: $38.4k
-------------------------
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New Address Bets $177.5k on Khamenei Ouster by Mid-Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 24 hours, a new address—despite facing a significant drawdown—added $7.2k at 28¢ to a wager that Khamenei will leave office by the end of March. Currently, this address holds a total of $137.9k on the "Out by March 31" outcome (average cost 43¢, current price 27¢, down 38.51%). Additionally, the address has bet $39.6k on him leaving by mid-year, bringing the total exposure to $177.5k.
Recent developments focus on escalating tensions: reports indicate hackers briefly interrupted state TV with opposition content, and officials disclosed high casualty numbers from protests, which Khamenei blamed on external forces. Concurrently, Iranian leadership reiterated that any action against the Supreme Leader would be considered a declaration of war. While these updates highlight a regime under pressure, they do not yet point directly to a power transfer, deteriorating health, or systemic change.
Account: 0xbad457dc633bbb7b6cbe09dd5867a5e8e597acd7
Total Position: $177.5k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 24 hours, a new address—despite facing a significant drawdown—added $7.2k at 28¢ to a wager that Khamenei will leave office by the end of March. Currently, this address holds a total of $137.9k on the "Out by March 31" outcome (average cost 43¢, current price 27¢, down 38.51%). Additionally, the address has bet $39.6k on him leaving by mid-year, bringing the total exposure to $177.5k.
Recent developments focus on escalating tensions: reports indicate hackers briefly interrupted state TV with opposition content, and officials disclosed high casualty numbers from protests, which Khamenei blamed on external forces. Concurrently, Iranian leadership reiterated that any action against the Supreme Leader would be considered a declaration of war. While these updates highlight a regime under pressure, they do not yet point directly to a power transfer, deteriorating health, or systemic change.
Account: 0xbad457dc633bbb7b6cbe09dd5867a5e8e597acd7
Total Position: $177.5k
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two New Addresses Bet $23k on US Acquiring Greenland
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered $23k within the last 4 hours that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The bets were executed at an average price of 20¢, where the market currently sits. The probability for this outcome has fluctuated between 17% and 23% over the past three days.
Over the last week, there have been no major developments indicating progress toward US sovereignty over the island. Trump reiterated his interest via Truth Social but has not proposed specific plans or initiated substantive negotiations. The Danish government has once again stated that Greenland's autonomous status is not up for negotiation, maintaining its consistent stance. Greenlandic officials have also reaffirmed their right to self-determination amidst renewed discussion following the US election.
Accounts: 0xd4631607200b15cd066f68c4db0a7152784f60bc 0x11d5fea1b7551b18eba7f9d7f18535c9177c1b17
Total Position: $23k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered $23k within the last 4 hours that the US will acquire Greenland before 2027. The bets were executed at an average price of 20¢, where the market currently sits. The probability for this outcome has fluctuated between 17% and 23% over the past three days.
Over the last week, there have been no major developments indicating progress toward US sovereignty over the island. Trump reiterated his interest via Truth Social but has not proposed specific plans or initiated substantive negotiations. The Danish government has once again stated that Greenland's autonomous status is not up for negotiation, maintaining its consistent stance. Greenlandic officials have also reaffirmed their right to self-determination amidst renewed discussion following the US election.
Accounts: 0xd4631607200b15cd066f68c4db0a7152784f60bc 0x11d5fea1b7551b18eba7f9d7f18535c9177c1b17
Total Position: $23k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Elon Musk Feuds with Budget Airline CEO; 3 New Addresses Bet $30k on Ryanair Buyout
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new addresses have placed bets within the last five hours that Elon Musk will acquire budget carrier Ryanair before July. These three users are now the top 3 holders of "Yes" shares, with the implied probability sitting at 12%.
Musk has been pushing Starlink connectivity for airlines to enhance passenger experience. A week ago, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary explicitly rejected Starlink, stating Musk "knows nothing about aviation." The feud escalated days later when O'Leary called Musk an "idiot" in an interview, prompting Musk to retort on X that O'Leary is a "complete fool." Following a user comment suggesting a takeover, Musk replied "Good idea" and later posted, "Should I buy Ryanair and appoint a real person named Ryan as CEO?"—hinting at a potential buyout and O'Leary's removal.
Accounts: 0x00c46258190c82a9f547bd9a5334e1e7f2457826 0x7988a554ba97b8046f527db6955c5a31defdf3f3 0x02335c1a5c5e7849265fa06daa474bce4dd25dd0
Position: $29.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three new addresses have placed bets within the last five hours that Elon Musk will acquire budget carrier Ryanair before July. These three users are now the top 3 holders of "Yes" shares, with the implied probability sitting at 12%.
Musk has been pushing Starlink connectivity for airlines to enhance passenger experience. A week ago, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary explicitly rejected Starlink, stating Musk "knows nothing about aviation." The feud escalated days later when O'Leary called Musk an "idiot" in an interview, prompting Musk to retort on X that O'Leary is a "complete fool." Following a user comment suggesting a takeover, Musk replied "Good idea" and later posted, "Should I buy Ryanair and appoint a real person named Ryan as CEO?"—hinting at a potential buyout and O'Leary's removal.
Accounts: 0x00c46258190c82a9f547bd9a5334e1e7f2457826 0x7988a554ba97b8046f527db6955c5a31defdf3f3 0x02335c1a5c5e7849265fa06daa474bce4dd25dd0
Position: $29.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
PolyBeats（EN）
Saylor Hints at BTC Buy; 6 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet Against It On the prediction market Polymarket, six accounts have recently placed bets that MicroStrategy will not announce a Bitcoin purchase between January 13–19. The current probability of an announcement…
Update: MicroStrategy Makes No Announcement; Market Set to Resolve "No"
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 13-19" has no remaining buy orders for "Yes" and is set to resolve as "No." The six high-win-rate accounts previously reported have accrued over $25,000 in floating profits from this position.
MicroStrategy did not release any purchase announcement on January 19 (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). However, due to founder Michael Saylor’s earlier "₿igger Orange." tweet hinting at an imminent purchase, the probability for the "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 20-26" market has now surged above 99%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 13-19" has no remaining buy orders for "Yes" and is set to resolve as "No." The six high-win-rate accounts previously reported have accrued over $25,000 in floating profits from this position.
MicroStrategy did not release any purchase announcement on January 19 (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). However, due to founder Michael Saylor’s earlier "₿igger Orange." tweet hinting at an imminent purchase, the probability for the "MicroStrategy to announce Bitcoin purchase Jan 20-26" market has now surged above 99%.
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Rockstar Studio Explosion; GTA 6 Delayed Again?
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a GTA 6 release delay holds steady at 43%, showing no significant change over the past week.
On November 6, 2025, Rockstar's parent company Take-Two announced that the release of GTA 6 would be postponed from the originally scheduled May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026. Yesterday, a boiler explosion at Rockstar’s Edinburgh studio led to a brief closure and employee evacuation, temporarily sparking rumors that "GTA 6 is delayed again."
As of now, the company has confirmed that the studio has reopened and development is unaffected, with no indications of a further delay.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a GTA 6 release delay holds steady at 43%, showing no significant change over the past week.
On November 6, 2025, Rockstar's parent company Take-Two announced that the release of GTA 6 would be postponed from the originally scheduled May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026. Yesterday, a boiler explosion at Rockstar’s Edinburgh studio led to a brief closure and employee evacuation, temporarily sparking rumors that "GTA 6 is delayed again."
As of now, the company has confirmed that the studio has reopened and development is unaffected, with no indications of a further delay.
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First Lady Documentary Premieres Jan 30; Box Office Likely to Underperform
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the "Melania" documentary will gross over $3 million in its opening weekend stands at just 25%.
Budgeted at $40 million—with a reported $28 million payout to the First Lady herself—the film highlights her life in the White House and her independent persona. It features exclusive behind-the-scenes footage from the 20 days leading up to Trump's second inauguration in January 2025, tracking her preparations for the ceremony, management of the transition, the family's move back to D.C., and her return to the role of First Lady.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the "Melania" documentary will gross over $3 million in its opening weekend stands at just 25%.
Budgeted at $40 million—with a reported $28 million payout to the First Lady herself—the film highlights her life in the White House and her independent persona. It features exclusive behind-the-scenes footage from the 20 days leading up to Trump's second inauguration in January 2025, tracking her preparations for the ceremony, management of the transition, the family's move back to D.C., and her return to the role of First Lady.
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