New Account Bets Israel Strikes Lebanon Today; Top Trader Capitulates
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability surged from 31% at entry to a high of 78% and currently sits at 64%.
Opposing this move was a high-conviction "No" bettor (Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21) active since last November. With 20 historical positions focused solely on strike dates, they boasted an 85% win rate and over $10,000 in profit.
However, following the new account's aggressive entry, this veteran trader has spent the last 10 hours selling off their "No" positions at a loss, realizing a deficit exceeding $6,000.
Israel has launched multiple airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas targets in recent days, with Polymarket markets from January 2 to January 8 all settling as "Yes."
Account: 0x1998e5baac96c7443c9f53da52619d395c9216ef
Total Position: $4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability surged from 31% at entry to a high of 78% and currently sits at 64%.
Opposing this move was a high-conviction "No" bettor (Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21) active since last November. With 20 historical positions focused solely on strike dates, they boasted an 85% win rate and over $10,000 in profit.
However, following the new account's aggressive entry, this veteran trader has spent the last 10 hours selling off their "No" positions at a loss, realizing a deficit exceeding $6,000.
Israel has launched multiple airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas targets in recent days, with Polymarket markets from January 2 to January 8 all settling as "Yes."
Account: 0x1998e5baac96c7443c9f53da52619d395c9216ef
Total Position: $4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Three New Accounts Bet Nearly $30k on Khamenei's Ouster This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new accounts have placed bets over the past day that Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be in power this month. Notably, three of these new accounts have accumulated positions large enough to make them the top three holders of "Yes" shares. The market probability has risen from 12% just 12 hours ago to 18% currently.
A key driver behind this surge is Trump's recent interview remark that "Khamenei is planning to flee," alongside his reiteration that the U.S. will take action if the Iranian regime violently suppresses protesters.
Top 3 Accounts: 0x4128be7113dbca57dd75e7cd2cd508dd9feddc3c 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0x1f7eac1d28137fcaa7dbb80ad41bc95c371d5675
Total Position: $29.3k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new accounts have placed bets over the past day that Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be in power this month. Notably, three of these new accounts have accumulated positions large enough to make them the top three holders of "Yes" shares. The market probability has risen from 12% just 12 hours ago to 18% currently.
A key driver behind this surge is Trump's recent interview remark that "Khamenei is planning to flee," alongside his reiteration that the U.S. will take action if the Iranian regime violently suppresses protesters.
Top 3 Accounts: 0x4128be7113dbca57dd75e7cd2cd508dd9feddc3c 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0x1f7eac1d28137fcaa7dbb80ad41bc95c371d5675
Total Position: $29.3k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
PolyBeats（EN）
New Account Bets Israel Strikes Lebanon Today; Top Trader Capitulates On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability…
UPDATE: Israel Suspected Strike on Lebanon; Suspicious Account Up 175%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Israel strikes Lebanon on Jan 9" market surged to 99% following our report four hours ago. The suspicious account mentioned previously now sits on a paper profit of nearly $7,000.
Half an hour ago, IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted on X stating that the IDF is currently attacking Hezbollah terror targets in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. As of now, no mainstream media has reported on the strike.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Israel strikes Lebanon on Jan 9" market surged to 99% following our report four hours ago. The suspicious account mentioned previously now sits on a paper profit of nearly $7,000.
Half an hour ago, IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted on X stating that the IDF is currently attacking Hezbollah terror targets in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. As of now, no mainstream media has reported on the strike.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Suspected Insider Uses Tornado Cash to Bet on US Strike Against Colombia
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account funded via the privacy protocol Tornado Cash deposited $12,000 one hour ago and executed market buys betting that the US will strike Colombia before April. This activity caused the probability to briefly spike from 7% to 42%; it currently settles at 9%.
Tornado Cash is an Ethereum-based mixing protocol used to anonymize cryptocurrency transactions. While used for privacy, it is often associated with illicit activities and has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury.
Following the U.S. raid on Venezuela, Trump criticized Colombian President Petro, stating he "loves making cocaine to sell to the U.S.," and responded "sounds good" to questions regarding potential military action. However, on January 8—following a phone call with Petro—Trump posted that the two would meet at the White House, describing the call as a "great honor," a complete reversal from his previous hostility.
Fund Trail: Mixer -> New Address 1 -> New Address 2 -> Polymarket
Account: 0x1693866a4bca598e29d5391cc55d5454f53ca6ad
Total Position: $4.2k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account funded via the privacy protocol Tornado Cash deposited $12,000 one hour ago and executed market buys betting that the US will strike Colombia before April. This activity caused the probability to briefly spike from 7% to 42%; it currently settles at 9%.
Tornado Cash is an Ethereum-based mixing protocol used to anonymize cryptocurrency transactions. While used for privacy, it is often associated with illicit activities and has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury.
Following the U.S. raid on Venezuela, Trump criticized Colombian President Petro, stating he "loves making cocaine to sell to the U.S.," and responded "sounds good" to questions regarding potential military action. However, on January 8—following a phone call with Petro—Trump posted that the two would meet at the White House, describing the call as a "great honor," a complete reversal from his previous hostility.
Fund Trail: Mixer -> New Address 1 -> New Address 2 -> Polymarket
Account: 0x1693866a4bca598e29d5391cc55d5454f53ca6ad
Total Position: $4.2k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Multiple New Addresses Bet $123k on Khamenei Ouster by Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have placed bets that Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before the end of January. The probability for this specific outcome has risen 13% and currently stands at 22%.
Massive anti-government protests have erupted across Iran, posing the most severe internal challenge to the theocratic regime in recent years. The Supreme Leader has refused to make concessions, labeling protesters as agents of foreign powers and signaling a hardline crackdown. Meanwhile, authorities have implemented an internet blackout as the situation escalates further.
Accounts: 0x276b5e1b8bdab89c7ac6f53096a2fd374134e8b8 0xf95846967c9093e4881506162077ec8f7049db13 0x6d067111d46203099d548019e376f940706694c6 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f 0x0e0a24f20fdee0594ebb359c20b9873ab4f3578f 0x8944ed4cdfe92111907e796bbb9920368537c3fd
Total Position: $123.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have placed bets that Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before the end of January. The probability for this specific outcome has risen 13% and currently stands at 22%.
Massive anti-government protests have erupted across Iran, posing the most severe internal challenge to the theocratic regime in recent years. The Supreme Leader has refused to make concessions, labeling protesters as agents of foreign powers and signaling a hardline crackdown. Meanwhile, authorities have implemented an internet blackout as the situation escalates further.
Accounts: 0x276b5e1b8bdab89c7ac6f53096a2fd374134e8b8 0xf95846967c9093e4881506162077ec8f7049db13 0x6d067111d46203099d548019e376f940706694c6 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f 0x0e0a24f20fdee0594ebb359c20b9873ab4f3578f 0x8944ed4cdfe92111907e796bbb9920368537c3fd
Total Position: $123.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump Reaffirms Importance of Greenland; Multiple New Addresses Bet on US Acquisition
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new accounts have placed bets over the last 3 days that the US will acquire part or all of Greenland. Currently, the probability for a full acquisition stands at 17%, with partial acquisition at 23%. Among these four, account 0x0cf2 holds additional positions betting that "Trump will not visit Greenland before April" and that the "US will invade Greenland this year."
In the "US Acquires All of Greenland This Year" market, three accounts with no other trading history hold 15% of the total "Yes" shares: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0x75ad66469cc4fde680829c9d8e943242bd4cf6b9 0xceecb2ecc91e32ebcc6bdee532e3d90055a34ad9
On January 9, Trump stated that "ownership, not leasing, is required to ensure defense." The Danish government has formally urged EU member states to deploy troops to the island to serve as a deterrent against potential U.S. military action.
Four New Accounts: 0x13a000e6e8fe81f2dfd6f1f5ecd32bbd1deb100d 0x0f6399f3d5f152a7679d148c765363d896c1b385 0x0cf2310a5895488db7d00aef07a2cca7bbe2bd92 0xd74e6cacaf565cb0732c48f44a0020defd8ede26
Total Position: $116.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new accounts have placed bets over the last 3 days that the US will acquire part or all of Greenland. Currently, the probability for a full acquisition stands at 17%, with partial acquisition at 23%. Among these four, account 0x0cf2 holds additional positions betting that "Trump will not visit Greenland before April" and that the "US will invade Greenland this year."
In the "US Acquires All of Greenland This Year" market, three accounts with no other trading history hold 15% of the total "Yes" shares: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0x75ad66469cc4fde680829c9d8e943242bd4cf6b9 0xceecb2ecc91e32ebcc6bdee532e3d90055a34ad9
On January 9, Trump stated that "ownership, not leasing, is required to ensure defense." The Danish government has formally urged EU member states to deploy troops to the island to serve as a deterrent against potential U.S. military action.
Four New Accounts: 0x13a000e6e8fe81f2dfd6f1f5ecd32bbd1deb100d 0x0f6399f3d5f152a7679d148c765363d896c1b385 0x0cf2310a5895488db7d00aef07a2cca7bbe2bd92 0xd74e6cacaf565cb0732c48f44a0020defd8ede26
Total Position: $116.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
❤1
Address with No On-Chain History Bets on US/Israel Strike on Iran This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited funds 11 hours ago and wagered that the US or Israel will strike Iran this month. This market was created three days ago, and the probability currently stands at 60%.
Fund tracing reveals that the on-chain address received a deposit of 3 ETH from Bitstamp and transferred the entire amount to Polymarket. The address has no prior on-chain activity.
Recently, Trump stated that the US is considering "very tough options" regarding Iran. However, media reports citing senior Department of Defense officials indicate they have warned Trump that a potential military strike on Iran requires more time for preparation. Conversely, Iran has warned that if the US attacks, Israeli and US bases in the Middle East will become legitimate targets.
Account: 0x6ff513819e1572ecdc119e0d6b402772adfc3804
Total Position: $9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited funds 11 hours ago and wagered that the US or Israel will strike Iran this month. This market was created three days ago, and the probability currently stands at 60%.
Fund tracing reveals that the on-chain address received a deposit of 3 ETH from Bitstamp and transferred the entire amount to Polymarket. The address has no prior on-chain activity.
Recently, Trump stated that the US is considering "very tough options" regarding Iran. However, media reports citing senior Department of Defense officials indicate they have warned Trump that a potential military strike on Iran requires more time for preparation. Conversely, Iran has warned that if the US attacks, Israeli and US bases in the Middle East will become legitimate targets.
Account: 0x6ff513819e1572ecdc119e0d6b402772adfc3804
Total Position: $9k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Top Holder Adds $20k to Ceasefire Bet; Funds Linked to Defunct Australian Crypto Platform
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last three hours, the previously reported new address betting on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this month has added over $20,000 to their position. They are now the largest holder of "Yes" shares, controlling 22% of the total market. The probability currently stands at 4%.
On-chain fund tracing links this address to the ENS domain "grineo.eth." According to X user @eyeonchains, this domain is suspected to belong to GrineoPay, an Australian digital currency payment platform founded in 2022 that announced it was ceasing operations in January 2025.
Fund Trail: 0x1066 -> 0xC066 -> 0x1606 -> Polymarket 0x1066 -> grineo.eth
Since January 9, Russia has employed various strike methods—including Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles—resulting in multiple casualties. The overall conflict has escalated, showing no signs of a ceasefire.
Account: 0xfcab5f23db3c53b7df0939deb7ce99adeb56e010
Total Position: $44k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last three hours, the previously reported new address betting on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this month has added over $20,000 to their position. They are now the largest holder of "Yes" shares, controlling 22% of the total market. The probability currently stands at 4%.
On-chain fund tracing links this address to the ENS domain "grineo.eth." According to X user @eyeonchains, this domain is suspected to belong to GrineoPay, an Australian digital currency payment platform founded in 2022 that announced it was ceasing operations in January 2025.
Fund Trail: 0x1066 -> 0xC066 -> 0x1606 -> Polymarket 0x1066 -> grineo.eth
Since January 9, Russia has employed various strike methods—including Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles—resulting in multiple casualties. The overall conflict has escalated, showing no signs of a ceasefire.
Account: 0xfcab5f23db3c53b7df0939deb7ce99adeb56e010
Total Position: $44k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
❤1
Ranger Finance ICO Oversubscribed 14x; New Accounts Net $37k
On the prediction market Polymarket, Ranger Finance—the Solana-based DEX previously covered by this channel—has achieved over $80 million in subscriptions against a $6 million goal, marking a 14.4x oversubscription rate.
Regarding the three new accounts previously highlighted by this channel: two of the accounts realized a combined profit exceeding $37,000. The third account, however, exited too early, missing out on nearly 50% of potential gains.
Accounts: 0x13195fb71a894748255205605aeaeb157113d7db 0x87ef2f040420aa8ea1ef1ce7593ae59e8c066c47 0xbbec7b4ffb7c41fac84ed587835c578d3b59dcbd
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, Ranger Finance—the Solana-based DEX previously covered by this channel—has achieved over $80 million in subscriptions against a $6 million goal, marking a 14.4x oversubscription rate.
Regarding the three new accounts previously highlighted by this channel: two of the accounts realized a combined profit exceeding $37,000. The third account, however, exited too early, missing out on nearly 50% of potential gains.
Accounts: 0x13195fb71a894748255205605aeaeb157113d7db 0x87ef2f040420aa8ea1ef1ce7593ae59e8c066c47 0xbbec7b4ffb7c41fac84ed587835c578d3b59dcbd
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
❤1
Multiple New Addresses Bet $43.5k on Fed Cutting Rates by 25bps in Jan
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have opened positions totaling $43.5k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5 to 7 cents—betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting. The implied probability for a 25bps cut has surged from 2.5% to a high of 7% in the last three days, signaling the rates market's reaction to the criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell.
The U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation based on grand jury subpoenas and threatened potential charges against Powell. The probe focuses on his congressional testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters and related budget issues—a move by the White House widely viewed as an unprecedented challenge to the Fed's independence. Powell immediately issued a rare video response, emphasizing this as political pressure on the Fed's decision-making rather than a mere investigation into a single event. While President Trump denied involvement in the investigation's specifics, he acknowledged the conflict centers on disagreements over interest rate policy.
Accounts: 0x25ff40795e25bb5f2a8dcc26f134ea81e224e0cf 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf7f1247f33f001f362c3333f0bf2490f504c5112 0xe6f5979f46bb57ab828e6d4dd16b7576b3ad7ace 0x950875d31750762ede32d3d76682cf0d03653f62
Total Position: $43.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have opened positions totaling $43.5k over the past 12 hours—at an average price of 5 to 7 cents—betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its January meeting. The implied probability for a 25bps cut has surged from 2.5% to a high of 7% in the last three days, signaling the rates market's reaction to the criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell.
The U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation based on grand jury subpoenas and threatened potential charges against Powell. The probe focuses on his congressional testimony regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters and related budget issues—a move by the White House widely viewed as an unprecedented challenge to the Fed's independence. Powell immediately issued a rare video response, emphasizing this as political pressure on the Fed's decision-making rather than a mere investigation into a single event. While President Trump denied involvement in the investigation's specifics, he acknowledged the conflict centers on disagreements over interest rate policy.
Accounts: 0x25ff40795e25bb5f2a8dcc26f134ea81e224e0cf 0xda35a9b9306467eea2ee07085c63459bb1b2fcb3 0xf7f1247f33f001f362c3333f0bf2490f504c5112 0xe6f5979f46bb57ab828e6d4dd16b7576b3ad7ace 0x950875d31750762ede32d3d76682cf0d03653f62
Total Position: $43.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Address Funded by $10M+ via Tornado Cash Bets on Khamenei Ouster; No CEX History
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has wagered that Khamenei will lose his position as Supreme Leader of Iran this month. The current market probability sits at 20%. The account holds over $15 million in on-chain assets, funded entirely by more than 30 separate transfers—each nearly $300k—from the mixing protocol Tornado Cash, with no record of interaction with centralized exchanges (CEX).
Fund Trail: Mixer -> 0x7a79 -> Three New Wallets -> Polymarket
In the past 24 hours, Khamenei publicly warned the U.S. to stop its "deceptive acts" and reliance on "traitorous mercenaries," as the protest death toll rose to 648 with over 10,000 arrests. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham warned Khamenei to "watch out for drones," mocking rumors of his potential flight to Russia.
Account: 0x38faf22801e0f753f86657b0bf6587b675fa55ea
Total Position: $10.3k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has wagered that Khamenei will lose his position as Supreme Leader of Iran this month. The current market probability sits at 20%. The account holds over $15 million in on-chain assets, funded entirely by more than 30 separate transfers—each nearly $300k—from the mixing protocol Tornado Cash, with no record of interaction with centralized exchanges (CEX).
Fund Trail: Mixer -> 0x7a79 -> Three New Wallets -> Polymarket
In the past 24 hours, Khamenei publicly warned the U.S. to stop its "deceptive acts" and reliance on "traitorous mercenaries," as the protest death toll rose to 648 with over 10,000 arrests. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham warned Khamenei to "watch out for drones," mocking rumors of his potential flight to Russia.
Account: 0x38faf22801e0f753f86657b0bf6587b675fa55ea
Total Position: $10.3k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Three Suspicious Accounts Bet $31k on Rick Rieder for Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have placed bets at the 4–5 cent range that Trump will appoint Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Rieder was added to this market on August 13 of last year. The current probability sits at 7%, and these three accounts are now among the top 20 holders of "Yes" positions.
On January 8, in an interview with The New York Times, Trump stated he had made his decision but has not yet disclosed the nominee. He spoke positively of Kevin Hassett, calling him "absolutely one of the people I like." Meanwhile, Rick Rieder serves as the CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, managing trillions of dollars in bonds and macro assets. While Trump is scheduled to meet him privately soon, Rieder lacks a background with the Fed, and his appointment would likely face significant political pressure.
Accounts: 0x0222f6e7109e8be94ffe2582917dced224dd7f38 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0
Total Position: $31k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have placed bets at the 4–5 cent range that Trump will appoint Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Rieder was added to this market on August 13 of last year. The current probability sits at 7%, and these three accounts are now among the top 20 holders of "Yes" positions.
On January 8, in an interview with The New York Times, Trump stated he had made his decision but has not yet disclosed the nominee. He spoke positively of Kevin Hassett, calling him "absolutely one of the people I like." Meanwhile, Rick Rieder serves as the CIO of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, managing trillions of dollars in bonds and macro assets. While Trump is scheduled to meet him privately soon, Rieder lacks a background with the Fed, and his appointment would likely face significant political pressure.
Accounts: 0x0222f6e7109e8be94ffe2582917dced224dd7f38 0x94885a3566cd74f28e0346f22a4bf002046ad531 0xfa87a158110370eb6dbe678843c055a6b144c2a0
Total Position: $31k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Wallet Funds via OKX to Bet $9k on Exchange's IPO This Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account withdrew funds from OKX and deposited them into Polymarket within the last 24 hours to wager $9k that OKX will IPO this year. This user has instantly become the top holder of "Yes" shares in the market.
Recent reports indicate that OKX's institutional business is undergoing a major restructuring, cutting approximately one-third of its sales team as part of a pivot toward a more traditional institutional client coverage model. While this adjustment suggests a strategic repositioning, there has been no direct announcement or official confirmation regarding an IPO plan for 2026.
Account: 0x8baa612e73c3ae94eefdd70afe2b83779fb0f299
Position: $9k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account withdrew funds from OKX and deposited them into Polymarket within the last 24 hours to wager $9k that OKX will IPO this year. This user has instantly become the top holder of "Yes" shares in the market.
Recent reports indicate that OKX's institutional business is undergoing a major restructuring, cutting approximately one-third of its sales team as part of a pivot toward a more traditional institutional client coverage model. While this adjustment suggests a strategic repositioning, there has been no direct announcement or official confirmation regarding an IPO plan for 2026.
Account: 0x8baa612e73c3ae94eefdd70afe2b83779fb0f299
Position: $9k
------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
4 Accounts Bet on US Strike Against Iran Before Jan 16 in Past Day
On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts have placed bets within the last day that the U.S. will strike Iran before January 16. One is a new account, while the other three trade exclusively in Iran-related markets. The current probability for this outcome sits at 23%.
Over the past 48 hours, nations including the U.S. and France have announced the evacuation of diplomatic missions in Iran or urged citizens to leave immediately. On Truth Social, Trump stated that if Iran shoots peaceful protesters, the U.S. "will come to the rescue," urging protesters to continue and declaring that "help is on the way."
Multiple markets related to a U.S. strike on Iran have seen varying gains in the last 48 hours. The probability of a strike by January 31 peaked at 76% earlier today and currently stands at 62%—marking an increase of over 350% since this channel's initial report on January 5.
Accounts: 0xe65a4ca7f2de70f5f17bf01e084670d64e6dce48 0x87ca1e498a111b19331d8d7c5a938f9918023448 0x1005e8df5428fd66e11586c420574584f0066f5b 0xd303c7f51a14920fa19ae04d0e60bd76b5c2a125
Total Position: $28.4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts have placed bets within the last day that the U.S. will strike Iran before January 16. One is a new account, while the other three trade exclusively in Iran-related markets. The current probability for this outcome sits at 23%.
Over the past 48 hours, nations including the U.S. and France have announced the evacuation of diplomatic missions in Iran or urged citizens to leave immediately. On Truth Social, Trump stated that if Iran shoots peaceful protesters, the U.S. "will come to the rescue," urging protesters to continue and declaring that "help is on the way."
Multiple markets related to a U.S. strike on Iran have seen varying gains in the last 48 hours. The probability of a strike by January 31 peaked at 76% earlier today and currently stands at 62%—marking an increase of over 350% since this channel's initial report on January 5.
Accounts: 0xe65a4ca7f2de70f5f17bf01e084670d64e6dce48 0x87ca1e498a111b19331d8d7c5a938f9918023448 0x1005e8df5428fd66e11586c420574584f0066f5b 0xd303c7f51a14920fa19ae04d0e60bd76b5c2a125
Total Position: $28.4k
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Address Bets $40k Believing US Will Strike Iran Within Hours
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address began heavily buying "Yes" shares five hours ago, betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on January 14 (ET). The account deployed $40k at an average cost of 16¢, instantly igniting market activity. The probability spiked to a high of 60% before rapidly collapsing to 3%. The address is currently down 70% and has not sold.
Over the past day, Iran has closed its airspace, and the Trump team continues to enforce its "maximum pressure" policy. The "Pentagon Pizza Index" is also showing anomalies, yet there have been no reports of U.S. drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian territory.
Account: 0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59
Position: $40k
-----------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address began heavily buying "Yes" shares five hours ago, betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on January 14 (ET). The account deployed $40k at an average cost of 16¢, instantly igniting market activity. The probability spiked to a high of 60% before rapidly collapsing to 3%. The address is currently down 70% and has not sold.
Over the past day, Iran has closed its airspace, and the Trump team continues to enforce its "maximum pressure" policy. The "Pentagon Pizza Index" is also showing anomalies, yet there have been no reports of U.S. drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian territory.
Account: 0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59
Position: $40k
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Logan Paul Auctions World's Most Expensive Pokémon Card; 4 New Addresses Up Nearly 100%
On the prediction market Polymarket, four addresses are betting that Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card will sell for over $10 million. Having placed their bets when the odds were around 35%, the current probability for this outcome has surged to 80%.
Logan Paul, a viral sensation and top influencer, began auctioning his PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card (purchased in 2021 for $5.275 million) last week. Current bidding has already reached $6 million.
Accounts: 0xb98279441da1aff41d426dee2170df35b1150fc8 0x7acae0fa111a5b96d03a21e13e19472ec666ef71 0xcbd2657470324062bb0e3fdea3fbd2e6f77bbfd9 0xc8c2e35222f6b28a794773c9cd15e61f5f882d1c
Total Position: $20.3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four addresses are betting that Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card will sell for over $10 million. Having placed their bets when the odds were around 35%, the current probability for this outcome has surged to 80%.
Logan Paul, a viral sensation and top influencer, began auctioning his PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card (purchased in 2021 for $5.275 million) last week. Current bidding has already reached $6 million.
Accounts: 0xb98279441da1aff41d426dee2170df35b1150fc8 0x7acae0fa111a5b96d03a21e13e19472ec666ef71 0xcbd2657470324062bb0e3fdea3fbd2e6f77bbfd9 0xc8c2e35222f6b28a794773c9cd15e61f5f882d1c
Total Position: $20.3k
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Suspected Hypersphere Capital Wallet Bets on Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market orders ten minutes ago betting that Trump will nominate Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This buying pressure drove their average entry price to 18 cents, far exceeding the 8% probability observed over the last two days.
Fund tracing reveals the address is flagged by Arkham as likely belonging to Hypersphere Capital, a venture capital firm focused on blockchain and DeFi. The address held assets peaking at $30 million early last year and utilizes a Coinbase Prime account, a service dedicated to institutional investors such as asset managers and market makers.
Fox Business reports that Trump is scheduled to interview Rick Rieder for the role at the White House this Thursday. In a CNBC interview, Rieder stated that the Fed Chair position is independent and reiterated the need to bring interest rates down to 3%—a reduction of at least another 50 basis points—to support economic growth.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $10k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market orders ten minutes ago betting that Trump will nominate Rick Rieder as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This buying pressure drove their average entry price to 18 cents, far exceeding the 8% probability observed over the last two days.
Fund tracing reveals the address is flagged by Arkham as likely belonging to Hypersphere Capital, a venture capital firm focused on blockchain and DeFi. The address held assets peaking at $30 million early last year and utilizes a Coinbase Prime account, a service dedicated to institutional investors such as asset managers and market makers.
Fox Business reports that Trump is scheduled to interview Rick Rieder for the role at the White House this Thursday. In a CNBC interview, Rieder stated that the Fed Chair position is independent and reiterated the need to bring interest rates down to 3%—a reduction of at least another 50 basis points—to support economic growth.
Account: 0x1138c6c14b9f3b6edd719d0b7b471bd896afe410
Position: $10k
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Financial Firm with $1B+ Daily Volume Bets on US Strike on Iran This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10,000 one hour ago that the US will strike Iran this month. The account currently retains an additional $15,000 in funds, and the market probability stands at 56%.
Fund tracing links the on-chain wallet to AP Capital, a diversified financial investment firm founded in 2014 with operations spanning equities, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency.
Fund Flow: AP Capital (0x4c78) -> 2 New Addresses -> Relay -> Polymarket
Several hours ago, Trump stated that a "very important source from the other side" assured him that Tehran has stopped using lethal force against protesters and that executions will not proceed. Some analysts interpret this statement as a sign of potential de-escalation.
Account: 0x66b43362c2db730f3f888736ea354d9d75261473
Position: $10k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10,000 one hour ago that the US will strike Iran this month. The account currently retains an additional $15,000 in funds, and the market probability stands at 56%.
Fund tracing links the on-chain wallet to AP Capital, a diversified financial investment firm founded in 2014 with operations spanning equities, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency.
Fund Flow: AP Capital (0x4c78) -> 2 New Addresses -> Relay -> Polymarket
Several hours ago, Trump stated that a "very important source from the other side" assured him that Tehran has stopped using lethal force against protesters and that executions will not proceed. Some analysts interpret this statement as a sign of potential de-escalation.
Account: 0x66b43362c2db730f3f888736ea354d9d75261473
Position: $10k
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New Address Bets $54.8k on US Strike on Iran Within Three Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $54.8k over the past 12 hours across the markets for January 15–18, betting that the US will strike Iran. Currently, the address is down $40.8k on these positions.
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, though no direct military strike has occurred yet. Over the past week, President-elect Trump’s national security team has signaled a tougher stance, with nominee Pete Hegseth suggesting that preemptive action against Iranian nuclear facilities should be considered if provoked.
Meanwhile, Iran has conducted missile tests and launched proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping via the Houthis, prompting a response from the US Navy. However, these actions have not yet involved a direct strike on Iranian soil.
Account: 0x3da842c722f7b6b429b5e0ff4dc6a4da065b8262
Total Position: $54.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $54.8k over the past 12 hours across the markets for January 15–18, betting that the US will strike Iran. Currently, the address is down $40.8k on these positions.
Tensions between the US and Iran remain high, though no direct military strike has occurred yet. Over the past week, President-elect Trump’s national security team has signaled a tougher stance, with nominee Pete Hegseth suggesting that preemptive action against Iranian nuclear facilities should be considered if provoked.
Meanwhile, Iran has conducted missile tests and launched proxy attacks on Red Sea shipping via the Houthis, prompting a response from the US Navy. However, these actions have not yet involved a direct strike on Iranian soil.
Account: 0x3da842c722f7b6b429b5e0ff4dc6a4da065b8262
Total Position: $54.8k
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Yen Weakness Fuels Inflation Fears; BOJ March Rate Hike Probability Soars
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Bank of Japan "25bps Rate Hike" in March currently stands at 26%, a significant jump from just 8% three days ago. Meanwhile, the probability of "No Change" for the January policy decision remains stable at 97%.
The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the potential impact of a weak Yen on inflation. Although the central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, exchange rate dynamics could prompt a reassessment of the timeline for future hikes, potentially forcing earlier action.
Officials believe the influence of a weak Yen on prices is intensifying, particularly as companies increasingly pass rising input costs on to consumers, which could further exacerbate inflationary pressures. Despite the BOJ raising benchmark rates just last month, the previously anticipated pace of hikes—roughly every six months—may face uncertainty if the Yen continues to weaken.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a Bank of Japan "25bps Rate Hike" in March currently stands at 26%, a significant jump from just 8% three days ago. Meanwhile, the probability of "No Change" for the January policy decision remains stable at 97%.
The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the potential impact of a weak Yen on inflation. Although the central bank is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, exchange rate dynamics could prompt a reassessment of the timeline for future hikes, potentially forcing earlier action.
Officials believe the influence of a weak Yen on prices is intensifying, particularly as companies increasingly pass rising input costs on to consumers, which could further exacerbate inflationary pressures. Despite the BOJ raising benchmark rates just last month, the previously anticipated pace of hikes—roughly every six months—may face uncertainty if the Yen continues to weaken.
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New Address Bets $42k on Péter Magyar as Next Hungarian PM
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $8k in the past day to a wager that Péter Magyar will be the next Prime Minister of Hungary. This address, which trades exclusively in this market and has been consistently buying "Yes," has now deployed a total of $42k, making it the second-largest holder.
Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has surged in recent polls, leading Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz by 10–15 percentage points nationwide. This momentum is driven by a massive rally of approximately 35,000 people in Budapest and a shift among centrist voters disillusioned with Orbán’s long-standing rule. Magyar continues to target corruption within the Orbán administration—highlighting leaked audio recordings alleging bribery involving Fidesz—which has further amplified his political capital amidst ongoing EU funding negotiations.
Account: 0xded313b467fce8ff1d6b009d26f47f3af7f0fe68
Position: $42k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address added $8k in the past day to a wager that Péter Magyar will be the next Prime Minister of Hungary. This address, which trades exclusively in this market and has been consistently buying "Yes," has now deployed a total of $42k, making it the second-largest holder.
Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has surged in recent polls, leading Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz by 10–15 percentage points nationwide. This momentum is driven by a massive rally of approximately 35,000 people in Budapest and a shift among centrist voters disillusioned with Orbán’s long-standing rule. Magyar continues to target corruption within the Orbán administration—highlighting leaked audio recordings alleging bribery involving Fidesz—which has further amplified his political capital amidst ongoing EU funding negotiations.
Account: 0xded313b467fce8ff1d6b009d26f47f3af7f0fe68
Position: $42k
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